 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread? That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire commas We are taking a look ahead a week number six of college football and breaking down the best bets on the board with Eli Hershkovich of you better you bet my name is Jim Saunas I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire calm joined here as always by Ed Fang you can find him over at the power Inc.com you can also find him on Twitter at the power Inc. Ed Last time we talked to you was on Thursday, and you were getting ready for a Ragnar run which sounds Frightening just to add to someone who does not run, but you are here I can physically see you you are present, which means it survived How are you feeling? I'm doing great. It was actually an amazing experience I can't highly recommend it enough the sleep issue that I talked about it wasn't really much of an issue Yeah It really helps that my team is loaded with amazingly fast women and we end up playing seeing second in the mixed division overall so but yeah, it was it was kind of amazing in general and You know didn't get to watch as much college football as I would have liked this past weekend But I at least caught a little bit of the Penn State game So yeah, you didn't need to watch much of the Penn State game. I will I will say that We're gonna get to that in covering the past because you were all over that one last week But hopefully the sleep comes soon because I know how tough it is to catch up on that during football season It is not yeah. Yeah, it's it's uh, you know, it's coming. It's coming back a little bit So absolutely positive regression for Ed's sleep schedule We're gonna talk to Eli Hirschkiewicz today to break down week six of college football You can find Eli on Twitter at Eli Hirschkiewicz He is a hosting producer on you better you bet which is on radio dot com sports Which is a live stream show every week night from six until ten they break down NFL College football is on their last week to break down the NFL and gave some really bad recommendations So thankfully Eli is not scorning me for my my thoughts on the Texans Panthers game But he will come the year later today to break down week six college football our week five NFL preview is coming up on Thursday to make sure you get that podcast right as it is posted Make sure you subscribe to the covering of the spread podcast feed You can find that on the Apple podcast store on Spotify Stitcher I heart radio wherever you get podcasts you can find covering the spread and while you're there Please leave a rating and review as well But before we bring it Eli, let's take a look back at last week We're gonna give Ed some dap for the Penn State call and also take a look back at our other college football stuff and some NASCAR from last week Covering the past All right, so last week on the college football version of covering the spread We had Dr. Eric eager on from pro football focus couple of PhDs and they spread some good knowledge So hopefully you're listening to them. We did have Eric You know you wanted Virginia plus 12 and a half against Notre Dame Notre Dame did win that one by 15 But the closing line there was Virginia plus 10 and a half So he did get two points of line movement in his favorite there just didn't get the result But did get results on the over for Texas Tech in Oklahoma when he mentioned that one The over was at 70 and a half and it finished with 71 points That was despite Oklahoma being up like 70 within the first five minutes, which can lead to a lot of under So did get that one there He also mentioned FAU against Charlotte at the time FAU was a one-point favorites And it actually did close the pick-up, but FAU one pretty handily there 45 to 27 against Charlotte So successful week there from Eric Ed You had Penn State minus six and a half against Maryland and they won that game 59 to nothing Michael so mad that the line didn't move off six and a half though. I mean, I'll take the I take the win Yeah, no, my numbers had it at about nine and you know, like I talked about last week This is really a spot to fade by Gloxley and his hot start at Maryland I wish there would be more opportunities, but unfortunately they play rockers this week And then who knows what but I just don't think there's gonna be any value left in Maryland in weeks going forward So yeah, it was nice to it was nice to get the W Because it was definitely one I believed in I have no data on this and I have no knowledge of this But do you have any feel on a team when they make a head coaching change like Rutgers just did or for you Is it more of a stay away spot? Oh I mean, I certainly don't have any data on it Yeah, it's so tough to tell with with a team like Rutgers, you know, like they're they're that bad and Yeah, probably It's much that I'd like to fade Maryland Again, like it's just so tough with Rutgers like you do want to say I can't get any worse than their loss to Michigan But it's Rutgers so it can't always get worse We've been saying I can't get any worse with Miami Dolphins, too And you know what that's true. That's a very good point Ed. I think that is a right exactly allegedly Let's let's not say they're actually you know allegedly pros Well, they get paid money to do what they do on Sunday is true And they have a bi-week this week so you can't lose the buy so Congratulations to Miami on that star pop in the champagne down in South Beach I had NASCAR last week and I was very frustrated on Sunday because on the podcast I mentioned Kevin Harvick at 14 to 1 then that D benedetto and Daniel Suarez 80 to 1 and they didn't all finish shorter than that Harvick finished at 9 to 1 so pretty good movement in his favor there D benedetto was at 50 to 1 Suarez 60 so actually pretty decent movement at all three of those guys Suarez Except a third in the race at one point. D benedetto was fine, but the Harvick one It gave me a headache. He had a seven second seven second lead at one point late in the race Which never happens in NASCAR seven second lead He was cruising Ricky Sinha Jr. Spun and for some reason NASCAR through a caution and even though there was no debris on the field on the track or Anything they threw a caution so Harvick's second or seven second lead wiped out then they had like 15 other cautions over the remainder of the race and Harvick held people off every time and he was he was running really well But on the last caution chase Elliot who had I thought the fastest car in the field He was up to fourth because he had hit the wall earlier in the race Got back in traffic steadily worked his way forward But that last caution he restarted from the second row and he was able to get around Harvick And he got the win and if Elliot had never gotten there I think Harvick would have held on and gotten that win, but didn't happen that way Harvick finished third I think he should have won and it was really frustrating He had the fastest car in the race based on David Smith's central speed rankings at the athletic He had the best average running position of any driver. It was super annoying I did not help my DFS lineups either with all those cautions at the end because I had Suarez there Eric Jones, Kyle Bush, Denny Hamlin. It was a rough day So frustration all around but getting the line movement in my favor at least I guess there's one minor positive I'm still very mad. There you go. So you so all the positive feelings from Penn State on Friday War were wiped out. They like it was the good karma was gone. So well Oh well Don't worry. We'll have some bad karma coming with my NFL stuff and we're gonna eat that on Thursday So I might have to eat some I might have to eat some crow and some stuff some me to season predictions. So yeah I have again the Texans Panthers one did not go well, but We'll talk more about that in just one second We're bringing an Eli to break down week six of college football before we do if you want to get in on the action Check out the Fandal sportsbook and place your first bet today If you lose Fandal will give you a refund out to five hundred dollars and psych credit Visit sportsbook.fandal.com for more details terms and conditions apply must be 21 plus and physically present in New Jersey or Pennsylvania gambling problem call 1-800-GAMBLER. Let's bring on Eli Hershkovich of you better you bet on radiosports.com You can find him on Twitter at Eli Hershkovich to break down week number six of college football Covering the present Let's bring an Eli Hershkovich here to covering the spread breaking down week number six of college football Eli, thank you for carving out time during a very busy time for you over at you better you bet I appreciate it. How are you doing today doing good guys? Thanks for having me on Absolutely, and we want you on here to talk some college football I think that with college football There's a lot of different ways to attack it and there are a lot of different specialties you can have You know markets that are good for you So I'll talk to you Eli about the markets that you find most profitable, you know What markets you have you had the most success with college football and why do you believe that? Specific market is tailored towards your strengths So if you go back to this past weekend with UNC and and Clemson and the Tar Heels Mac Brown They were that close to pulling off the not only not only did they cover? They were 27 point dogs going into that game against the number one team in college football and the Tigers But they were that close to pulling off the straight-up upset now Of course the two-point conversion failed But for me the market that's been that's been working the best is is backing home dogs live Not backing them against the spread Pre-game and while you could still make the case that UNC had value at plus 27 I like backing home teams number one because you're talking about college kids that are 18 to 22 years old You can make the case that in the NFL how much does home field really matter especially in a market like? Los Angeles with the Chargers where their home field is absolutely awful but when you're talking about these young kids home field matters and and motivational spots matter and you look at a UNC team that is one of the best college football coaches historically and Mac Brown as a dog and And they get into this spot where it's a close game in the first half tight at halftime And while UNC was a 27 point dog pregame. They were still plus 14 at half So the live odds go into that second half and a UNC quarterback freshman quarterback They just played really well in the second half of games this year and a Clemson team that in Trevor Lawrence Hasn't looked like anything close like a Heisman trophy candidate this season when he came in tied with to a Tonga Veloa as the as to have the lowest odds and the shortest odds across college football in the Heisman market So it's it's it's backing home dogs Especially once you get into conference play here, and that was just an ACC week one essentially example with UNC and Clemson But when you get into these spots where it's a huge motivational spot for a team like UNC to knock off One of the best college football programs of the last half a decade in Clemson You you take those chances especially live Well I want to talk to you about live betting here quickly because I think that that's it's an interesting market because we Don't have as much time to think about it, which means we can't dwell on it We know we're not getting Advantages numbers before that money comes in stuff like that. So with live betting when you're watching a game What are you looking for? You know are there certain things that you were trying to spot individually within the game? How do you go about live betting, you know just for your individual process? if we're talking about halves and I'll get into more of the The timeout perspective in just a second but from first half into the second half Whether it's the the total or or the spread you're looking for pace and it's very I'm a I'm an avid I'm an avid college basketball better So it's very similar to college basketball for me right because if a team comes in to a game and has a high pace and They're they're slower They'll have a little bit more of a slower tempo in the first half You'll typically see them pick up the pace in a second in the second half regardless of the opponent Especially if they have a negative game script now It can go vice versa as well Especially if you look at a team like Michigan State and maybe this past weekend wasn't a great example because that game against Indiana Was super tight even though the point differential at the end of the game was 10 points But the week before that they play your Northwestern Wildcats and I will bet against Northwestern every day of the week I hate Northwestern That's a personal bias, but going back to that game a Michigan State team that plays at a slower tempo runs the ball relies on its defense played a little bit at a quicker pace in the first half and and I pull the trigger on the second half under against the Northwestern team that again by Its offense isn't anything you want to back and Michigan State has one of the best defenses in college football So and they'll slow down the tempo because of it and and they'll run the ball in the second half so you're really just trying to gauge how a team will play and if there's a negative game script and the team typically has a positive pace and a and a quicker tempo and they're bound to pick it up in the second half or even in In the in the in the middle of the second quarter because they're trailing you want to go that route You know, so this is Ed Fang here Are there any trends that have emerged through the first month of the year that have really stood out to you? Whether they could be teams or leagues or maybe any tempo trends Similar to the ones that you've been telling us about Yeah, one trend that I'm looking at is against the spread and road favorites this year Now I understand that we just had the first weekend essentially of conference play for the majority of FBS school So you can make the case that non-conference versus conference We might see the market shift a little bit But road favorites against the spread through five weeks of college football of at least five points are 33 19 and 1 that's good for a 63.5 percent success rate So and you look at this past weekend with Ohio State, which I'll know we'll get to later on with the Buckeyes and Michigan State Ohio State was a 17 point favorite against Nebraska. I know a lot of sharp bettors were on the Cornhuskers A team that while they had a tough game against Illinois Not covering that game still looked better than the second half a motivational spot, right? I talked about backing live dogs at home And and that was a huge game the biggest game of the year for Nebraska a team that a lot of people backed In the big 10 futures market coming into the season and Martinez and that Nebraska team laid a dud Against one of the best offenses in college football So if you can find a little bit of a market advantage for a team that's a five or six point dog And that isn't getting enough respect like if you look at Penn State over the weekend as well against Maryland There are six and a half point favorite on the road now I backed Maryland and I hate myself for doing it But that but that was a Maryland team that looked extremely flawed at temple Against a really good defense and while penn state was in a couple of close games including one against pit One against buffalo when they were getting beat at the within the first half You could say that penn state team was flawed But this is one of the better college football programs in the big 10 and and they absolutely slaughtered and shut out Maryland so there is value taking the favorites I know is a sharp better myself and for sharp betters in college football in the nfl You typically want to fade a road favorite, especially when it's when the when the road When when the home dog is in favorable position like a team in Nebraska when there's a huge motivational spot behind them But there is value Within within the market like I mentioned 33 19 and 1 Home favorites of or road favorites of at least five points are this season in college football So find the market efficiencies with road favorites and take advantage We'll talk more about a road favorite in a little bit because we're going to go through Auburn versus Florida Smaller favorite than that. We'll get to them in just one second But first let's start here with Iowa against Michigan Michigan is minus three and a half right now at the Thandell sports book the total in this game is at 48 points Now Eli, Michigan is underperformed relative to expectations so far this year Is that something you expect to continue going forward or do you think they just had a couple of bad games against army and then In that game against Wisconsin First of all, I would like to vent a little bit because I'm a mutual. I'm a michigan Futures ticket holder not a season ticket holder But I had Michigan futures coming into the year to win the college football playoff That was more of a sharp play as well You think this is finally the year for jim harbaugh, and then they lay an absolute dud at wisconsin And she paterson looks like absolute dog dog If I can swear on this podcast if you want to take that out Absolutely dog crap now on the road at Wisconsin So it was hard to watch that game and then you look at this ruckus performance last week like you mentioned And she paterson while I threw the pick Still had about four in completion So josh gattis and this offense while it's one of the the worst teams in college football And obviously the worst team really in the big 10 in ruckers Patterson still looked more efficient and this offense under josh gattis looked more efficient as well So now you have an iowa team coming into the mix and both of these teams have tape against one another Because iowa played middle tennessee state and so did michigan and the opener and mind you all michigan One night game by double digits paterson still didn't have this still didn't have a good performance uh the line opened at michigan's favorite by five and and as as you guys marked out on the rundown On michigan is now a three and a half point favorite So this game reminds me a little bit of the wisconsin game because you're seeing money coming on the other side Now it's not as drastic drastic as the wisconsin game was one of the game of the year market coming into the season Wisconsin was a seven point home dog And then when that game kicked off wisconsin was favored by three still a one and a half point line Line shift in a game where clearly a lot of people don't like michigan People are fading the wolverines after a big performance against again one of the worst teams in college football But who is iowa really played? I understand they beat iowa state And that was on the road And it was a tough game they were they were they were trailing half But you saw iowa state go on the road at bailar and not play well for for three and a half Three quarters of that game and really pick up the pace Uh an offense that that that can't score in bunches brock purdy And i understand iowa's defense shut him down in the second half But I just i'm not i'm not a huge backer of this iowa team when that iowa state team is Clearly not as good as a lot of people thought a lot of people had Iowa state futures coming into the year and the wind total market I'm i'm not a huge believer in this defense. They're not the best team of the big ten west people are making that case They're not better than wisconsin that defense is not even comparable to wisconsin I think you see josh gattison this offense continued to make strides Uh in this spread style offense, they ran more of a spread formation against ruckers And if you spread iowa's defense out you don't force the run you try to get paterson going Early in that game to get his confidence up. I see michigan michigan covering this short line of three and a half Interesting. Eli, do you have any thoughts you mentioned? Uh, you see michigan's offense doing a little bit better and doubts about iowa's defense The numbers certainly support the doubts on iowa's defense this year. Do you have anything on the the total? Yeah, if i'm if i'm given a lean on the total, I probably won't be betting it I I already made a play on on michigan minus three and a half But from gauging this right now sitting at around 47 and a half 48 depending on where you shop around I'd probably be looking at the under in this game Even though iowa's defense is due for some negative regression Like you mentioned again the the schedule doesn't really support the fact that they have a top 30 Opponents yards per play. Uh, so they're going up the 30th are within that top 30 range of one of the lowest yards per play in college football But michigan's defense again also showed some signs of positive regression last week against ruckers I i'm probably looking at around a 24 17 kind of ballgame 24 14 I think you see michigan make a statement at home with that defense while They they couldn't stop jonathan taylor on the ground And iowa can't tend to revolve around the russian attack to get their offense going It's kind of a staple of their program for the last decade plus I think this michigan's uh, michigan defense similar to the michigan offense bounces off of last week's ruckers dominant performance And carries over to into this game and you see the under play. That's more of a lean than than a true play for me Go ahead. I was gonna say michigan couldn't stop uh, jonathan taylor, but north western could jimson Oh my gosh, which was like which was an interesting development. I love the north western shots. Keep him coming, man They they they they've aired because they gave me hope I was intent on not watching that game at all on saturday. That's right Because like I saw bill connelly's prediction of 36 to 4. I think it was uh in favor wisconsin I was like that sounds about right, uh, I like bill connelly's numbers a lot I was like, okay, cool. I don't have to watch this game and then those idiots decided to actually play I I can't say decent football like the defense played well, but like they they bother me a lot like I just want I want to not watch them But they draw me in and then they still lose it's well and they they've completely screwed up my point-based numbers too Because they dropped wisconsin. I don't know in the 20s somewhere which dropped michigan I think below fbs average, so i'm just kind of hiding that on my site right now You know, it'll fix this out for a couple weeks when we get some more data in but north wisconsin's really screwing my numbers too They're the worst they make me so mad. Let's move here to avern against florida Auburn a three-point road favorites. There you go. Eli the total here is 47 Kyle Trask making his third start his fourth total game for florida to actually get a pretty good sample In that game where he came off the bench Have you seen enough elie from trask to have a firm opinion on this florida offense with him as a quarterback? Or is there still a bit of an unknown with that makes you wary of betting either side of a florida game? Yeah, so trask really isn't the main concern for me in this game last week florida averaged Around six yards per play. They were averaging around six point two six point three With philippe frank's under center. So we're really in shotgun and college football Can't really use the under center cliche anymore in fbs But uh, yeah, there's they're not really the concern and trask plays and isn't really a big component to me in this game Whether i'm taking the whether i'm betting against the spread or i'm betting the total The issue for me is bonex Because there's bonex fever going around college football whether it's the betting scene or just watching auburn And the biggest thing that when I look at this auburn team Going back to the beginning of the year their their national title odds were 65 to 1 And now they're around 50 to 1 after an undefeated start That tells you that base doesn't value this team as much as As much as the majority of the country really does and you can you can make the case again that maybe auburn Isn't getting enough credit or auburn is getting equally the the the right amount of credit in this line because They're only a free point favorite on the road against it, uh, you know Roughly a top 10 team in florida But what is bonex done to impress you that was a lucky throw against organ You guys can make the case that it was a good throw on the Given given one chance to uh to a 6566 wide receiver to win that game But man, you you're just throwing that ball up there up for grabs Bonex looked terrible in that game. Can you guys argue otherwise or are you on the same page? No, I think it you look at the overall numbers even when you include some of the lucky throws He hasn't been that impressive. So I think Laying three on the road against another team that's looked pretty good this year is interesting to me I would I would phrase it that way Yeah, uh, no, I'm a hundred percent with you. I don't trust auburn's offense. I don't trust bonex. I understand They they they went out on the road at texas a&m and won that game, but kelin man has also underperformed Uh to a lot of people's expectations you go back to last week against arkansas and texas a&m Nearly lost that game. Uh, but the the play for me in this game is the total I love the under 47 and I am also an under better. So take that with a grain of salt if you want to I really am not a huge Uh proponent of taking overs unless I really like the total but the total is just over inflated to me Again because of auburn success offensively Against you know against a florida defense that is roughly top 20 in opponents yards per play given up this season So I think florida's defense plays well against bonex and he's due for some negative regression coming into this game In a tough road environment again I know you can make the case that texas a&m was a tougher road environment But this florida this florida defense is better from a metric standpoint and from just an eye test standpoint Then texas a&m's defense and they actually play well against the pass while a&m's defense is better Against in terms of in terms of russian defense They're not great against the pass and bonex was able to carve them up Especially with some of their trickery offensively in gadget plays Give me the under in this game as well because auburn's defense is is top 20 as well in opponents yards per play So the the the game script on both sides of the ball and the inflation off of auburn success offensively When it's probably doing a little bit of luck is is the under under 47 Excellent one more game here big time conferences in the big 10 michigan state travels to ohio state ohio state coming off the big win at nebraska that you talked about last week They're 20 point favorite The total we gave it to you in the email elias 50. It has come down 49 uh Break down this game for us. What is ohio state legit national title contender? Yes, yes I was I was thinking about the michigan state ohio state game So yes, they are contender for the national title and you guys also asked me in the in the script coming in Where does ohio state rank in terms of the rest of the country? Right and the one the one surprising case i'll make for you if i go through my power ratings right now I have alabama is the best team in the country toa looks like by far the the the runaway for heisman I know people want to make the case for herts and even just in fields after this past week But uh two was average averaging nearly four touchdowns per game His yards per attempt is is above last season And he really has been the best alabama quarterback that that nick saban has ever had For the crimson tide in terms of explosive plays in that offense So, uh, alabama is the clear cut number one for me in the country Georgia with frown and swift is uh is a close number one But i'm still going to take them at number two not not one be their defense is is explosive I know they they gave up some points against Notre Dame and that was closer than a lot of people expected But uh, I blame kirby smart more than the personnel itself lsu for me Is number three oklahoma is number four I have ohio state rated higher than clumson in this in this spot and overall this season Clumson to me is flawed. I brought up that unc game earlier in the season the comps from trevor laurence to Peyton manning We're just ridiculous coming into the season One year where defenses now have had the chance to adjust to the best court college football quarterback Since one of the best quarterbacks in nfl history Again, it's it's it's like making the comp can alabama beat the miami dolphins No, is trevor laurence the best quarterback in college football since Peyton manning. No So how state to me is the fifth best team in college football with that being said I'm not backing them on the line in this spot even though they're at home In favor by 20 points you can make the case that they just blew blew out Nebraska on the road and they could blow out a michigan offense that runs at a slower pace Can they can they keep up with an ohio state team that wants to push the tempo with with fields? And one of the best quarterbacks in college football even though he's number four number five for me in the heisman race That's more due to the overall competition rather than his play. I'm back in the under I'm backing where the sharp movement is going in this game Both defenses are top five in college football in opponents yards per play given up I think you see a defensive grind fest Uh, you know the the lean for me would be michigan state and the points in this spot But I think you might see closer to You know a 37 seven kind of game Maybe a 33 10 kind of game where it's inching closer towards the over But I think michigan state has a tough time scoring against a really good ohio state defense that has been better hasn't lost a beat number one since alex grinch left The the fold after urban meyer retired and gritch is now at oklahoma and turning it around that sooner's defense This ohio state defense is heads above fields better than what grinch ever produced in columbus And I think they give a michigan state offense that struggled against indiana And that defensive performance for me with the spartans was more due to a letdown spot with ohio state on deck Then indiana's offense actually being good. So the under the under 49 is the play for me in this spot All right, and you don't have a strong enough conviction to actually bet ohio state minus 20, correct Like you'd rather just go with the total here. Yeah, again I'm more of an underbacker when there is spots like this and when you have two of the best defenses in college football while I while I just made uh A big case for justin fields and what he's done this season And I brought it up with Nebraska and that game earlier in this or last week and earlier in the conversation as well Fields hasn't faced a tough test yet. It's similar to bow nicks. Well, I think fields is is way better than bow nicks Is currently and will ever be This spot still screams to me You might see a little bit not a ton, but a little bit of negative regression for fields Yeah, really good defense in michigan states. I would not be shocked if you were to see that But he has been really fun this year. All right any other bets you see on the board that you like For college football on week six. Eli. Yeah, I stick him with the big 10 I love not like now I'm never gonna call it a lock because if any if any is better if you guys ever call something a lock And I'm sure you guys don't you know, it's Yeah, you know that you know that word is the absolute worst to say when it comes to sports betting because There is no lock whether it's college football whether it's the nfl whether it's the nba whether it's college basketball I know it's I know it's the it's the cliche of any given sunday or any given saturday But it's the truth anything can happen when it comes to sports betting Especially when you think about back doors, but I really do like illinois getting the 14 at minnesota Letdown spot for the golden the gopher is coming off that big performance at perdua dominant win I bet from the bet regret perspective. I wish I took minnesota Getting or laying just a couple points on the road against a terrible perdu team While minnesota's defense was so so going into that game Purdue is just off on both sides of the ball now going back to this game Illinois coming off the buy coming off a tough game against nebraska It's a motivational spot. You also get again that two week by or that week long by Coming into this game At minnesota a team that still has its flaws defensively and while i'm not a huge backer brandon peters He struggled mightily against that nebraska defense and a defense that got ripped apart by ohio state last weekend I still think this team is rough. I think still think this game is roughly Seven to ten point finish too many points for me with minnesota at home Especially in a letdown spot after that perdu performance and that perdu game involved a lot of injuries on perdu side too So I think that that's another reason to potentially be skeptical what we saw there from minnesota That is illi herjkiewicz follow him on twitter at illi herjkiewicz illi Thank you as always for hopping on here for today really appreciate your insights here Good luck with your college football and nfl bets this week and hopefully we can talk to you again soon You too guys. Thanks for having me on have a good one. Absolutely Covering the future Big thank you once again to illi herjkiewicz for joining us for today to break down week six of college football Giving us picks and and I am someone who has always had more confidence in betting totals Then spread so it's fun to talk to someone like illi who also had that lean. What about for you for you personally Do you prefer betting sides or are you more of a totals person? I mean, I really in college football in particular I like both and that's because I feel both my models are are pretty strong I have yet to talk about it nfl total and that's because my model is not pretty good So I I I tend not to talk about it I don't even promote it on my site because I don't don't want people signing up to get nfl totals I do hope this changed that in the off season or maybe later this season But at this point in the year, you know, I don't post college football totals in about week four week five So now that we're getting into week six starting to get a little bit more confidence in those numbers and there's a game with value it and essentially Seconds what illi said about the under uh in ohio state michigan state My number has this game at about 46 points and and I think you can see why so ohio state really struggled on the defensive side of the ball Last year was not a very characteristic year for that program In in urban mires last year and you know really didn't know what to expect coming into this year I think you could expect better just because they're ohio state But when I look at yards per play just based on numbers this year Ohio state is second in the nation Okay, so this unit has is kind of back to being elite when you look at that matchup against a michigan state offense Which is much better than last year You know the work he looks like he's healthy. He's throwing the ball They're not in the hundreds when I look at it just the yards per play like they were last year But you still have to like this matchup in particular michigan state has a lot of offensive linemen that are dinged up They haven't been able to run the ball at all this year I don't see I think the work you can manufacture a couple of scoring drives, but I don't see A ton of points on that side of the ball Um, and now when you look at the other matchup ohio state's offense has been fantastic Justin Fields has been everything that book eye fans wished that he could be and when I look at adjusted yards per play They're they're six in the nation this year Completed that smackdown of of Nebraska last year But when you look at who they faced They haven't faced anyone on the level of michigan state. Uh, this defense has been really great Last year they don't look any weaker this year They're seventh when I look at adjusted yards per play just based on data this year Possibly one of the best defensive lines in the entire country that is particularly good against the run So I don't see a lot of points in this game. Uh, again the model agrees with that as well predicting about 46 points in this game compared to Uh, a market told that was 50 when I did this analysis and then you know magically moved to 49 when I checked it right before We got on this show. So I guess you can mark that as good, you know A little bit of closing line value there as well. But yeah under Based on the numbers in michigan state at ohio state Yeah, I think that I was too slow to react to how good this ohio state defense was because I think that from like a Numbers perspective it would be okay to be skeptical because they were wretched at times last year But they were changing their schemes and then when you watched them play early in the year You could see how dominant the talent was on their defensive line and I think that I was a bit too slow to buy in and I think that that To me pushes me towards also liking the under for this game because I don't know As someone who just watched michigan state two weeks ago I don't know how they're just gonna score points because they didn't do a whole lot against northwestern northwestern's defense is fine It's not good. It's fine But like ohio state's defensive line against this offensive line I don't know how they're just gonna score points and ohio state's not gonna put up 40 by themselves Uh, so I think that it does make sense here. What do your numbers say about ohio state's defense once you adjust for schedule? Because I think that they've they've been really impressive, but like the offense that they faced haven't been amazing But they also haven't been terrible Yeah, I mean they they agreed out a second in the nation and adjusted yards for play at this point And that's really good. I should note that last year. They were 62nd You said they looked terrible part of the reason they looked terrible is because they were giving up a lot of big plays Right. I think I've talked about the show that there's a there's a lot of randomness that people don't expect in big plays bill connelly has done a bunch of this research, but essentially if you give up a ton of big plays Last year you don't necessarily tend to do that as much this year So they did give up a lot of plays because there were 62nd in the nation last year and adjusted yards for play But they were better 39th when I look at success rate adjusted for schedule Now 39th isn't really good by Ohio State standards but But part of their problem was just a little bit of bad luck in giving up big plays And they made scheme adjustments too, you know running more zone rather than man, which is going to lead to a Better yard like the it's going to erase a lot of those big plays So I think that that is something that I should have picked up on earlier and was a bit slow to react to Ed and I always preach searching for the best value and betting on games Well, look no further than the new odds comparison our engineers have developed over at number fire dot com Odds fire is the premier odds comparison experience across major bookmakers in the regulated u.s. Market compare odds quickly identify the best value And even examine first party fan dual data on one place Never settle always get the best odds check out the experience for free now on number fire or at odds fire dot com gambling problem call 1,800 gambler Let's move now to my covering the future here And I think that I want to look at a futures market which is appropriate for covering the future But I think now Might be a good time to buy in an Oklahoma here from a future market perspective To win the championship because right now they're at 14 to 1 at fandom sports book Which ranks fifth behind Clemson, Alabama Georgia and Ohio State who are all 8 to 1 are shorter and Oklahoma again is 14 to 1 Tied with lscu at 14 to 1 as well and part of the logic there Maybe that we haven't really seen them face anybody yet But as you mentioned last week when we were looking back at the michigan versus wisconsin game You were talking about how it does matter What teams do against poorer competition? And oklahoma has lit that poorer competition up jailen herts is averaging 17.5 Just yards per attempt, which is absolutely out of this world He won't sustain that that's going to regress because you can't have a number that high But it would shatter kyler murray's record if it were to stick I think that what's going a bit overlooked here in discussing oklahoma is That their defense is better too They finished last year ranked 84th in defensive s and p plus according to football outsiders If you look at bill connelly's sp plus now rankings over on espn Their defense ranks 42nd So it's not good yet, but when it's paired with the nation's top offense That movement does matter big movement like that defensively oklahoma ranks second as a team in number fires power rankings They are seventh over at the power rank dot com their public numbers over there for ued Their third and sp plus so analytics heavy places all seem pretty into them In the market not as much. They do have a very tough schedule I think that's worth mentioning here for oklahoma in any futures market because their schedule is very tough The big 12 has a lot of legit teams this year. They play texas in dallas for the red river shootouts They close with at cans of state iowa state at baler tcu and then at oklahoma state and those are all Pretty tough tests, but I think at 14 to 1 the number for oklahoma seems to be accounting for that schedule a bit So i'm going to take a dive in here and see what happens the schedule may wind up biting them because again I think it's very tough and that's probably the biggest thing That would scare me when it comes to backing oklahoma to win the national championship But they have Exceeded expectations at least my expectations in pretty much every game so far this year and with clemson They're they tend to be a slow starter, but with them looking a tiny bit shaky I think it does open up some value to potentially start to dabble in this market and look at some futures here So I think oklahoma makes sense at 14 to 1 I don't think that they are my national championship favorites because that that schedule is very tough Clemson and alabama should still be assumed to be the favorites, but i think at 14 to 1 They're not bad and what are your thoughts in oklahoma so far based on what you've seen from them against Admittedly not the greatest competition. Yeah, I mean the way they're running the ball is kind of insane So when I look at yards for carry, uh, I take out Sacks from those numbers which which you have to do in college football because sacks for some reason count as rush plays Um, you know, they're rating right now and running the ball They're expected to gain 9.3 yards per carry against an average fbs. Wow I mean, it's just crazy and you know, we talked before this season about how they lost four offensive line starters uh to the nfl and you know, they just they just keep going and a lot of programs would love to have, uh Uh That kind of coaching on the offensive line that kind of talent coming in And yeah, you know, my numbers are a little bit, uh less bullish on the defense. They were about 70th last year Uh in adjusted yards per play. There's still about 70th right now That tends to be a little bit noisy. Um at this point in the season So I'm definitely not saying that I I see issues with the defense yet But we'll we'll definitely see uh as the season moves on Uh, do you know when that Texas game is? That is in mid-october, I believe. Uh, let me put the schedule here. They still got a couple weeks to potentially get Um, you know, I mean, they're gonna get a test. I think the Texas offense has been really good even better than perhaps I expected because they've been able to run the ball. Um I mean they have a couple weeks to get some of those, uh secondary players healthy because otherwise I can really see oklahoma putting up some points in that game So that's october 12th That's next Week that's next week. Yeah, that is next week. Oh, wow. Uh, so that's actually very soon. Um, they have kansas first Which can fix a lot of issues. That's good Uh, but they have texas then and then it's west virginia west virginia hasn't been great this year by any means and that game Is at home and then so like basically After kansas they have one Kind of quote-unquote easy game that's at home against west virginia. So they have a very tough schedule Yeah, I mean, I think they do. I think they're in a class of their own in their conference. Um, You know, I I I've I've definitely talked about how much I don't respect texas this year Iowa state's been, you know Maybe maybe not as good as we had hoped um, so Yeah, I mean, I I think they're going to be some pretty healthy favorites and and another thing I will add like I mean, I obviously don't necessarily trust completely my defensive numbers at this point But I am looking for a spot for some oklahoma overs Later in the season With kansas. That's just not a good spot So not sweet, but we'll see we'll see what happens. Oh, yeah I'm interested to see what that number is going to be against texas and we're gonna talk about that game I can guarantee you that. Yeah. Oh, yeah for sure for sure and and I You know, I might be talking about that and covering the future too. So all right. Okay. Looking forward to that We'll we'll have that next week. We also have our nfl podcast coming up on thursday recorded a bit early for the college football one for this week to Come to elie's schedule big. Thank you once again to elie herskovich for swinging by and spreading his knowledge for week Six of college football follow him on twitter at elie herskovich ed I got your email newsletter going over at the powerink.com anything else in the football analytics show for this week coming up Um, yeah, uh, we'll have a guess this week. It's it's still in the world But uh south waller at espn Came over and joined me that is not up yet, but maybe by the time this is out But yeah, football has a little show is definitely my podcast. Check it out and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts All right and get all of ed's content over at the powerink.com sign up for that very helpful email newsletter as well And follow it on twitter at the powerink. I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast one final reminder To subscribe to this podcast covering the spread wherever you get your podcast So you can get that nfl podcast Right as it goes up on thursday talking with j.j. Zacharyson of fan dual a number fire to get his thoughts and player props How you can adjust for role changes throughout the year We're making projections and a lot of the good stuff. So jj coming up on thursday right here in this same feed Big thank you is out to calvin theobald our video producer for keeping us on the air here May video perspective. Thank you cal as always and thank you to those of you for tuning in for today For covering the spread we'll talk to you again on thursday to break it all down Good luck with your bets until then this has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network