 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessTrader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing well. It is Saturday morning, roughly around 10 o'clock, 10, 20 in the AM Eastern time. I don't know when you can be watching this video, Saturday, Sunday at some point, but hopefully you guys are continuing to get value on a daily basis. Thank you very much for all your support. The only thing we ask of you is to like, share, comment, whatever it is. You know, whatever it is, interact. We want to know how your trading is doing. Even if you have nothing to do with Access to Trader or trading pivots, it is kind of cool for everybody to kind of gain everybody's message to see how their personal journey is going and what they're having problems with and where they are finding their niche. So hopefully everybody is doing well. So let's talk about the markets, right? So usually there's no Thursday night video because Thursday night is usually rest, but I recorded a Thursday night video because Wednesday I was feeling a little under the weather. It's the best way I could say it. So we talked about some very, very key levels that the NASDAQ was faced with. If you guys remember the day before, Tesla came out with earnings, Netflix came out with earnings. The NASDAQ was initially brought up by Netflix and then ultimately because we continued to build below the 50-day moving average, ultimately Tesla pulled everything down, right? So going into Friday, the bulls were already on shaky ground. There was pretty decent size losses throughout the week. Matter of fact, when you look at the final tally of the week, you see some pretty disgusting losses here. You have S&P lost about 2.5%, which is pretty big. The Dow 1.6% and the NASDAQ over 3.2%. And you saw a lot of information come out this week. Again, the continuation of the escalation of the war in the Middle East. That's obviously not helping things. Oil prices continue to surge. And then you had Jerome Powell, right? Mr. Jay Powell himself in the middle of the day, noon, I believe it was either Tuesday or Wednesday. I don't know these days. I don't remember what day it was. But he's basically saying, hey, inflation is still a concern. When you see using the word inflation is still a concern. That's not usually a good thing. And the market continues to sell. And here we are. We're set up for Thursday night's video into Friday. And I gave you guys a lot of really good value going into the Friday session because any single time you have all beta names. And if you are brand new to the channel, beta is, at least in my book, the most aggressive average shoe names in the technology mega cab group. Tesla, Nvidia, Meta, Apple, Amazon, so forth and so on. So we had an incredibly potential premium session setting up for Friday with the confirmation of the cues below the 100 day EMA. And if you just watch the previous video, right, watch the previous video, we talked about the severity, right? How important it was that the bulls defend that 359 level on the cues, because if they weren't, we were going to be looking for a sloth, soft landing. Again, go back to that previous video of roughly this 351 area. And lo and behold, it's exactly what happened. The cues broke down below the 359 level and just started escalating. As you can see here, very, very big drop. We pretty much closed at the lows of the day. And every single stock that we talked about on the video, the previous video, they got hit, right? Tesla had a day two, right? We talked about potential 314, right? The 314 held, potential get below the 314 and take out the August lows. All that happened, right? All that happened. And Tesla, again, if you've been watching the price action or just watching the options, option flow from Friday, they're coming in pretty aggressively for this up and coming week for the 200 puts. You can see it, right? You can see this is the first close below the 200 day moving average. If you thought the 50 day moving average was super duper important, well, the 200 day is 10 times important as the 50. And this is the first close on Tesla below the 200 day moving average. So we closed below 214. We talked about that 212 level, which was the August lows. It got below that. And now this is the whole close and this whole formation. If you look at where your next measure potential is on Tesla, it goes all the way to this linear regression line, which is 178. Now, again, it sounds crazy. It might not happen. I don't know. You know what I mean? Monday, they could easily reclaim back the 200 day moving average at 214 and start a dead cap bounce. It's all a possibility, right? Again, we always speak in being ready on both sides of the market. You are brand new to this channel. Again, I'm not trying to predict price action three weeks from now. I'm trying to win tomorrow. So the whole thing that we know going into Monday's session is that if it starts confirming Friday's bottom channel, well, then you have more downside. And ultimately, look at your measure potential is if the bulls can somehow trap the bears above Friday's highs and reclaim the 214 level, then yeah, of course, we'd have a dead cat bounce. But again, as a professional trader, I don't care if you're trading for two weeks, your money is as green as everybody else's. So you have to be as prepared as somebody's been trading for 24, nearly 25 years going on myself. So you have to be prepared on both side of the channel. So we're obviously watching Tesla for a possible remount back above the 214 level, the 200 day moving average. Or we are watching Tesla below Friday's channel for a potential move into that 200 move this week. NVIDIA, right? We talked about NVIDIA on Thursday night's video. This was definitely the trade for me. I would say the trade of the day for a lot of people. You know, NVIDIA took out a big, big level, right? Confirmed the 218 level, 418 level, which is the 100 day moving average. And this is the one to watch, guys. This is the one with a lot of measured potential going into this week. You got to pay attention to this. If you're in the NVIDIA bull, just like if you were at Tesla bull, I made a video exactly six days ago saying, hey, if Tesla loses the 50 day moving average, it's not a good thing, right? Well, damn, they went up the next day. Okay, so it lost the 50 day moving average, right? So NVIDIA lost the 50 day moving average. Now it lost a 100 day moving average. Now the key is, if NVIDIA starts reclaiming, right? If the bears start reclaiming the September lows, then we're going to go down to that 400 area because if you look at the option flow going into this week, right? You saw a ton, a ton of weekly, this week's weekly expiration for the 400 puts. We even saw some 390s coming in for November as well. You have to watch NVIDIA. NVIDIA is definitely one to watch. Again, they don't have earnings for a couple of weeks, so definitely want to watch for those September lows. And if they do confirm that September lows, this thing has a pretty, pretty good downside ahead. We talked about on Thursday, Amazon, right? We talked about Amazon as well. It held the bottom of the range twice. Just like NVIDIA, it lost the 100 day moving average. The next big chattel of Amazon is also the September lows. Keep an eye on this thing, guys. Again, look at the linear regression line just to give you an idea where Amazon needs to confirm without giving you guys a specific number, right? Again, obviously everybody in the webinar knows the specific number, but look at the bottom of the chattel here, right? Look how many times it held the linear regression line once, twice, three times. It closed on it again on Friday. If it starts losing this bottom channel here, yeah, there's a chance it's going to see the September lows. Look at a name like AMD. AMD is the only one that didn't confirm from Friday, but look how close this is, guys. This has held now the same channel four days in a row. Eventually, if this thing starts snapping, this thing's going to get hit as well. So there's a lot of tech names that are definitely on the firing lines. Look at AMAT, right? Another semiconductor name. Boy, look at this thing, guys. This thing closed right on the 150-day SMA two days in a row. There's nothing left. AMAT starts losing the 150-day SMA. This thing has another five points as well. So if you go through the NASDAQ 100 members, again, that's my sweet spot. So if you go through the NASDAQ 100 members, you're going to see a lot of great setups this week, a lot going into Monday's session. Did they confirm? That's the only thing that we don't know, right? That's why we always talk about trading from both sides of the aisle, being ready on both sides of the aisle, having an opinion, have a bias, have a game plan, have a price point that you need to see every stock confirmed. But at the same time, be wary. There is a two-sided market, and the market sometimes doesn't do what you want, but you have to be prepared. So if you go through the NASDAQ 100, you'll see NVIDIA looks awful, looks absolutely awful. And if it does confirm, the September lows, oh boy. Tesla, again, not great, not great at all. We've been talking about Tesla for two, three days. Every single level has been confirmed. It has a date, I believe, this week with the 200 area unless it starts reclaiming back the 200-day moving average. So any close above 214 on Tesla, you would have a probability for a one or two-day bounce. But if it doesn't reclaim the 200-day moving average, the longer it starts building below, the higher probability it's going to get washed as well. Going into this week, obviously, is bearish on every single index. Again, NASDAQ down 3.2%. And again, you hear right away a lot of newer traders saying, well, this market is oversold. Guys, the NASDAQ is up 30% for the year. Just think about this for a second. Take a step back. Take a deep breath of fresh air and say to yourself, the market is oversold. And at the same time, the NASDAQ is up 30% plus percent for the year. It doesn't make sense. It's like being a little bit pregnant, either pregnant or you're not pregnant. So the NASDAQ is up 30%. We're far, far away from being oversold. Matter of fact, again, like we talked about, once we lost the 50-day moving average, we went to the 100. Once we lost the 100-day moving average, now we're looking for that 150-day moving average test, which is roughly around the 351 area. If you think it's oversold now, what's what happens is, if this thing closes, the Q's close below 351, then you're going to be really, really thinking that this is the end of the world, which is not. There's no fear mongering. We're just talking about both sides of the market, how stocks go up organically. Stocks will go down organically as well. So watch this potential soft landing at this 351 level. Do I think 351 will probably get defended the first time around? I do, right? Because major moving averages usually get defended at least once. Even Thursday, we got down to this 359 level and bounced initially, right? So even if we have a follow-through day on Monday and we get down to this 351 level, it'll probably get defended first and initially bounce. But I'm telling you, any close below 351, then look how much price action you have below it. And this is where Darth Vader, right? Comes out and I have no problem trading both sides of the market. So let's talk about the pivots. As you can imagine, premium day, absolutely premium day. We talked about the majority of these pivots on Thursday night's video. Again, congratulations for all you guys who took the pivots. Again, if you are interested in pivots, guys, we do offer a discounted 30-day trial. Come in. Come in, see if pivots are right for you. If you have a $1,000 account, don't come in. You're wasting your time. This isn't the small account challenge on social media. You need capital. What are you going to do? Trade a half a share of Tesla. So if you have a smaller account, a $1,000 account, it's probably not for you. The best advice to build a smaller account, get a job. I mean, that's the easiest way to build an account. I understand everybody has the stories that we took $1,000 and turned it to $30 million. Maybe that's the case, and God bless if you can do it. I couldn't turn $1,000 into $1,100, let alone $1,000 into anything else. So if you have a smaller account, your job in the first two, three years is to learn as much as possible. Screen time, all that good stuff that comes with it. My best advice is get a second or third job. In two years, you could build up your account to $25, 30, $40, $50,000. That's when you can start your journey. I would never discourage anybody from starting their journey. But again, just like in any other business, you need capital. The more capital you have, the better. And if you have more capital, it means that you're seeing more screen time. That means you're getting exposed to more bull bearing distribution markets and you're getting more experience under your belt. Unfortunately, if I wanted to open up a steakhouse, but I only had $2,000, you're pretty much not going to succeed, right? It's very tough serving a $58 filet mignon on paper plates. So if you need money to open up a restaurant, well, why do you think you don't need any money to trade? There's a difference between investing and trading. Everybody can invest, but unfortunately, this is just the reality. Again, I'm not going to blow steam up you. You need capital in this business. You need a lot of capital. People ask me all the time, what's the minimum? It's as much as possible times 1,000. You need as much capital as possible. The more capital you have, it will not translate into you being a better trader. The only thing that it will translate is for you to get more screen time. So the more screen time you have, you're stretching out your potential to have more longevity and eventually something will click. So unfortunately, this is a business that you do need capital. Don't let social media tell you you can trade with $500. If you can, God bless. It's just not going to be... We all know it in our hearts. You're sitting there looking at yourself in the mirror. Well, you need capital just like any other business. Again, keep working, guys. Keep working. Do whatever it has to take to get more capital to fund your account. You need at least 30, 40, 50 grand. You need something, 10, 15 grand could get you going two, three trades per day for the week. But you need as much capital as possible. And that's honestly, unfortunately, the reality. So let's talk about Friday's Pivots. Again, very, very aggressive day. Tesla 216, 78, if it builds below, can flush the 214 and 212, the next levels. Again, Tesla, every single channel got confirmed. Lost 216, 78, lost 214, lost 212, traded down to 210. And this is the lowest close below the 200-day moving average. AMD is one of the only ones who did not confirm, still watching it for next week. Amazon got hit, 127.50 held twice if it builds below, can flush. Here is Amazon, right? Here's Amazon. Here's the two channels. We talked about 27.50 held twice, traded all the way back down to this linear aggression line, which is held now five times in a row. Now, basically went down about two and a half bucks. Amazon confirms this channel here. It should get down to the 123s. Apple got hit, 174.80 if it builds below, can flush. Here is Apple, right? Took out the 174.80, traded all the way down to basically within the lows of the day, 20 cents within the lows. If Apple starts confirming this whole channel here, I think there's a shot here at 170. We saw some 170 puts coming in as well. Meta got beat up as well, 311.75 if it builds below, can flush, right? Here is Meta. So it took out the 1175, traded all the way down to 306. Netflix had a res day. We talked about a Thursday, the potential for a res day. It never went green to red. It never went red to green. It just kind of opened up here and just sat the whole day. I still like it. I'd love to see Netflix. I would love to see Netflix kind of go sideways for the next couple of days because the longer it doesn't go down to higher probability, it'll start its next leg up. And here's where it got very, very aggressive. Land research didn't do anything. It literally sat there pretty much the whole day between this whole area. I still like this thing for next week. But this was the big one, right? This is the big one right here. Initially, NVIDIA opened below 418 and then it started rallying back. And I said if it opens up above, which it did, if it opens up above 418, let's use that as a reference. If not 415.50, that's the pre-market lows. And there's a shot. It gets down to 409.80. So I got short off the 418. It went all the way down to 410.70s. And now we are close. Boy, oh boy, we are very, very close to those September lows. Again, guys, keep an eye on the video for this week. Again, doesn't necessarily have to happen on Monday or Tuesday. But boy, oh boy, if it starts taking out those September lows the same way that Tesla took out the September lows, we can get a really good second day run. Guys, God bless everybody. Hope everybody has an awesome, awesome weekend. Take care of yourself. Smile. Exercise. Be a better human being. And with God's help, I'll see you all on Monday. Take care.