 The following is a presentation of TFNN, The Power Trading Hour with your host David White. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. And welcome all to another excellent edition of The Power Trading Hour. It doesn't matter where you're at as long as you're here at the appointed time. Why is it not doing something? It should be doing something. That's not. Could it have done something yet again? Yeah, it has. I'm not exactly sure why. Let's do this, and then let's do that, and try it again. The following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. Yes, it does. Okay, so a little technical difficulties, but we're out here kind of hovering around. Let's make sure and update it just to make sure I get the last little tick. Just a hair over 3,900. 3908-71. Now, during options expiration, normally bullish, 80% of the time, you should pretty much figure out the low of the Wednesday the week before expiration. And look at it. And of course, that was about, is that on the spies? Yeah, it's on the spies. Let's look at the S&P itself here. Get you that number. There we go. Let's go back back to the 11th. So the low on that day would be 3928. So you've got an 80% chance that you close above that just every month. There's only two months maybe out of the year that you don't. It's almost always set some kind of low on the Delta neutral day, and then either you get 1.5% higher or, in the case where it doesn't pay off, 3.5% lower. So it is a asymmetrical trade, but overall, you've got to have some fairly compelling evidence that the world is going to hell in a handbasket in the next day. What if it goes out there Monday? Well, it doesn't do you any good for expiration. So let's look at that. So really, we're talking about 3929 on the S&P cash. We're just kind of a hair underneath that right now. So that's kind of the worst case scenario that we've gone down a couple of times and tried to test those lows today. The question is, did we get anywhere close to the 18 billion shares we talked about yesterday? And the answer, negatory big, man, I don't even remember my CB stuff. Negatory big, what was it? Big chicken rancher? Can't remember now. Maybe somebody in the CB world remembers all the big daddy. I don't think it was big daddy. Anyway, CJ McCall, all I remember about CB radios and stuff. Anyway, yeah, we got 7.9 billion shares. So we're doing about half right now with 209. As we said yesterday, it would take a miracle to get to the 18 billion shares we were looking at to blow out the lows. And of course, I got 12.5, maybe a little more, almost 13 billion shares yesterday. So we were about 5 billion shares lighter than the last time we came down here. So for the most part, although we haven't broken the low, we've gotten into that candle and we've done it with significantly lighter volume. Does that mean the bear market is over? No. This means probably the first leg of it is going to take some time to develop the B to C leg before you get the C to D leg. Everybody always assumes the end is nigh. And if it was, then it would just be over and it would be time to go along. And it is. It's hope springs eternal. Everybody believes that the market's going to turn around just a little bit. There may be some things that change. I think politically, now that we're getting into the heart of the matter, our first big week of primaries for the fall election on Tuesday, the results are probably going to mean that we're going to see a policy change, I suspect, in energy. And that may help out the rest of the market. I don't know when that's going to happen. We've got two more weeks of Tuesday primaries. Weirdly enough, the primaries here in Florida are last week or so of August. So they're well far away for us. But I think, what, three-fourths of all the primaries across the country happen here in the next few weeks and basically starting on Tuesday of this week. I think a lot of people thinking about reelection are going to throw a lot of weight around. It doesn't matter what party you belong to. The number one goal, after you get elected, is get reelected. And if everything's going to hell in a hand basket, you better be seen to be part of the solution and not part of the problem. So I suspect, and some of the stuff I saw in the news today, I suspect the long knives are out to change the story in a positive way that people can't just ridicule. Kind of like the stock price when everybody goes to fill their vehicle up. It's not something easily you can ignore. So energy prices, of course, we've seen Target this week and Walmart get whacked. Interesting discussions from Target about what they're going to do. And that is, if the thing weighs anything or it's big, they are probably going to kick it out of the store. They don't want anything that has a high weight or shipping to cost ratio. They want lots of fluffy towels that weigh nothing. They want anything that means that their shipping and freight costs are lower. I think it was Target. Walmart, too, talking about getting rid of bicycles. Other things that, although they make okay money on, are just hard to ship and they don't kind of like the margins on them after that. So look for some changes in your retail store about what they cover. It's going to be more about what the profit margin will hold. And I think it's probably good for Amazon. Amazon will just raise their prices. And of course, they don't want to care because nothing's really in stock. It's always given to them by the manufacturer to sit at these folks. They don't put a lot of money out on much of anything unless they're buying it directly from China and paying it on the nose and probably getting a big discount to do it. 877-927-6648. You can email me at path at tfnn.com. Negatory big bear or little buddy. Yeah, that's it. All I can remember about CBs were when they were real big, I think around mid-70s and I had one in my car, like 76 or 77. No matter what they would say, if it was supposed to be big bear, I'd say something different. I'd say, you know, Black Bear, come back at you. And of course, they'd say, it's big bear. And man, this got mad when you actually dressed them. But it was fun nonetheless. We'll be back in a Paouming inflation. We are purchasing powers, eroded. There's no better place to protect your harder-and-money-than-aing gold. This-the-goals flagship asset is the Monctoca Gold Project in the Northern Territory of Australia. This is Australia's largest undeveloped Gold Project. 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Tom's Daily Market Newsletter, Market Insights is published every morning when the markets open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed. These newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio. Get Tom O'Brien's newsletter, Market Insights today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money-back guarantee at tfnn.com. TFNN Educating Investors. At 1-877-927-6648, internationally, at 727-873-7618. Yes, JC, I do remember that. First question of the day is from Sergeant Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band. So what do we have out here in Google? Certainly have a nice looking low in the market. And that is the Google. If you're some of the, who was it? The Senator from Arizona who assumed room temperature a few years ago. Can't remember his name now. I do digress. Anyway, he don't call everything, the Google, the Facebook. Maybe somebody remembers in it. Yeah, John McCain. Anyway, you've got the Google out here that did test with close enough for my methodology. And that is you test a previous low on half the volume. You don't have to hit to the penny, although it would be nice. I like it a little better. But yes, Sergeant Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band. That's a nice looking low. All you got to do is really kind of turn around before the end of the day or tomorrow and you got something out here. 2.7 million shares on May 12th for the Google. And that was at 2196. Got to 2,200 again. If you get half the volume down there, you don't hit it. That's generally enough. I'd say it's a 80% signal and if you actually pierced it, maybe a 90% signal, that's it pierced the actual low out here. So you got light volume. As I said, we're getting into this kind of summer trading and it's going to be typified by lighter volume, especially if everybody started getting short now. The old chestnut in the market is do not be short a quiet market and they'll probably be fairly quiet next week. So we'll see what happens before the end of the day. I'm fairly optimistic into two or three o'clock tomorrow afternoon. After that, maybe everybody gets all nasty. Just the emails I get, the hate emails, keep them coming because generally when I even speak about being long something and get that much hate mail, it's an awful good sign that I'm going to be right because generally the people that scream the loudest about further market lows, probably not wrong in the long term, but in the medium term and the short term, there are the harder and more vociferous the yell and scream, the more I think that they're on the wrong side of history. So we'll take a look at that. Never short a dull market. There's a reason why those things are there. Speculation is old as the hills. It's happened before, it's gonna happen again and why everybody thinks they're smarter and faster than everybody that came before them. Human nature has not changed and people will continue to make the same mistakes that they did 50 years ago or 100 years ago or 150 years ago. There's nothing new under the sun for speculation. Can't be. It's been around since the beginning of time. 877-927-6648, what else do we have? Okay, thanks, you beetle member you. Okay, what else do we have out here? This is the kind of emails I get. I just probably the most boastful and every time I've ever been this sure of anything, it always goes against me. Only for the second time in 30 years, I will go into a weekend 100% short. Other than that Sunday, I was thinking last Sunday we would be down five to 10%. Well, I will try it again and you know what? Nobody has a crystal ball. As I like to say, I have a crystal brain and I can think. But generally when people start sending me, I don't get much mail and then I get a bunch of mail. It's either at the tops when everybody says it's going to the moon and they nay nay me, nay, nay nay me. And the same thing at the bottom. So I'll get a bunch of people that are telling me it's the end of the world and medium long-term I think I am fairly bearish. I have said it how many times? Three-fourths of the time, the market even in a bear market is going higher. If you're always looking for that pot to boil, it rarely does. Now I could be wrong. I have some very good risk reward setups that I put on today and I think I put them on pretty much at the right time. I have some good odds and I've talked about why I think there are fairly good odds. I don't have, I've got a fairly good bet that we probably don't go lower. I can't guarantee you we don't, but I'm going to say the odds in the past have been 80% or better. And that I get confirming stuff out there. Is this a long-term low? In a long-term low, I would have seen everybody and their dogs short today. So for all I know, Monday is the next giant chasm that eats up the entire world with nuclear war. Tomorrow, probably not as probable. So I will, like I said, I'm fairly optimistic for the next 24 hours. And that's about as far as I can see through the windscreen on a foggy day. But don't be surprised. Now, one or two scenarios I kind of see setting up. One, we just absolutely rip up the last 30 minutes of the day and we do nothing tomorrow. And the opposite of that is maybe we just kind of stumble up into the close today. And that means that maybe we get a fairly nice continuation into the weekend. And my guess is that by two o'clock, 99% of it would be in. Maybe you get a bunch of people trying to short the weekend once again. And people that have been on the right side or want to get out, do sell. Maybe you get a little bit of sell off before the weekend. But very tough to see anything out here that tells me the next 24 hours go lower. We've had our test. The volume didn't come in. It still hasn't come in. I'll change my opinion if the volume comes in. But I gave it to you yesterday. 18 billion shares, we got less than 13 billion shares. We need 18 billion shares to blow through there. And even if you're bearish, you should expect a bounce. And the next time maybe you get to blow through down there, but you're gonna need some more volume in my learned opinion. Okay. Do what did I say the ES is delta neutral? Don't do the ES. It's pretty worthless for that. It's all about the cash against options. So whatever it is, I don't know. But ideally, if option market makers want to penalize the most amount of people, S&P 4,000 for yet tomorrow's price. We'll be back in two. Two and two. If you want to take advantage of this sector, now is the time to subscribe to my Gold Report. 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Using this first-of-its-kind program, The Art of Timing the Trade Charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups, including guardleafs, ABCs, butterflies, and much more. The Art of Timing the Trade Charts is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days, weeks, or even months searching to find. And right now we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month. We are so confident that you're gonna love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day unconditional money-back guarantee. Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of The Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting tfnn.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com. Once more into the breach, do we go here? Of course, nothing like a little bit of history. There is history repeated. Well, it doesn't always repeat, but it does rhyme on this day in 1998, U.S. Justice Department, internees general. I don't know why they were always plural. Of 20, if anybody knows why they pluralize generals and attorneys, both, let me know. The District of Columbia Antitrust lawsuit against Microsoft has filed. The case focuses on Microsoft's integration of the Internet Explorer web browser into Windows 98, dug in so deep, you would think it was an Alabama tick. The trial becomes one of the most famous events in tech history, eventually resulting in a settlement between the DOJ and Microsoft. And in fact, the sanctions levied against Microsoft only recently ended in May of 2011, almost exactly, who wrote that? 13 years after the suit was filed. And of course, it took another couple of years to get rid of another embedded tick. That was a bomber, who's the CEO of Time. And of course, nothing but up and net since then, although a little bit of a pullback out here now. But I do digress. You always have to know there is a political and a legal, but generally the legal is part of the political out here. And of course, what most people don't know is the band of carry on, on carriers, I don't know. The band of folks mostly from Chicago ended up coming in to the White House in 1992. Many of them were from Chicago and used to the Chicago way and had threatened Bill Gates many times that his windows could be broke. And see what I did there. You know, it'd be a shame if those windows got broke. But you know what, if you threw a lot of money our way, maybe they wouldn't, maybe we'd stand outside and make sure no one broke your windows. Anyway, a lot of the hangers on, maybe that's the best way to describe it, infected Washington D.C. with even higher level of corruption. And that was one that he ignored. And he said later he probably should have just paid off the folk and there. I don't know how high it went up, but certainly from Bill Gates, his discussion was, you know what? I probably should have played along to get along. And in these days, it continues to be a threat. And that is antitrust lawsuits. Again, theoretically you're supposed to have a justice department that is blind, but not so much. And of course, little money greases the palm. Just wet my beak. I can just hear the conversations now. And of course, it has continued on and on, and I'm sure on both sides of the aisle it has happened. On this day in 1998. Yes, a lot of people with broken noses. Okay. So, well, we looked at Google already. We've got some other emails here. We'll see how everything's going on here. What do we got? Is that an update? Yeah, just kind of hanging around unchanged now on the S&P, we're down 10 points. A rounding error in the volatility we've had lately. Dow down 166, NASDAQ actually turned the page. God, I can remember the first time I ever heard that song. Boy, I'm trying to remember the words to it. The reason I remember it so vividly is I'd never heard the song before, but I was driving around 1980 between Des Moines, otherwise known as Des Moines, Des Moines, Iowa, and somewhere else in a blizzard of a snowstorm. And the story of Bob Seeger driving across from town to town. Of course, I didn't have long hair and didn't look like hippie. But that's kind of a driving song, isn't it? And it hit me at about the right time. I mean, between two big cities and nothing but a massive snowstorm. And you can hardly see where you were going, but I made it there. 877-927-6648. Okay, let's start looking at the usual suspects. A lot of people think, well, the market couldn't bounce. What if you just had some short covering in a stock that had been testing a previous low on lighter volume? And say, why did it be a shame if your windows got broken? I can just imagine those conversations. May 12th on Apple, $138.80, 183 million shares. Count them folks, 183 million glorious shares, 138.80. Got down 136.60 today. This one did prove the point in Wycoff terminology. That is, go below it. Now all you have to do is close back above it, 138.80. Not quite half the volume, but damn near. And damn straight, less than 100 million shares as the dulcet tones of my voice reach out to you. So you've got one there. Let's take a quick look at the queues. What do we have out here? 121 million shares, May 12th, a day that won't live in infamy because it actually turned around and went higher. That was 284.94 with 120 million shares. Today, 56 million shares. Well, again, could things get worse, they can't. Do they automatically instantly go worse, get worse, no. But what is that, man, I probably need to memorize it, but let's see, what is it? It said, I brought it up on earlier in the week. And that was, yeah. Benoit, Mandelbrot, clouds are not spheres, mountains are not cones, coastlines are not circled, and bark is not smooth, nor does lightning travel in a straight line, neither do markets. So I'll always remember that. Let's see what do we have out here. Let's take a quick look. And we're down a whole one point or a 0.04% on the S&P now. NASDAQ starting to do a little bit of that. I think I can. I think I can. Again, I think somebody in the den brought it up on the S&P cash. I'm looking for something like 4,000. That's what, the 78 points higher than here. That's not much of a stretch in what we've seen, almost a rounding error. So I kind of like it. Again, if it hits that today, I'll probably be out and let everybody fight over whatever is there tomorrow. I'm not one that has to be there for the last nickel. I did just to say it, make a nickel right above them. Of course, I never really understood that until they found out, they found a nickel, a Indian, a Buffalo nickel. That's pleasing the nickel so hard in case you're watching this. Out of the bag, out of the bag. We'll be back. Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area, including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa, and Clearwater markets? Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area. Whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value, or you're in the market for a second home or investment property, Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay Area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels. 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The Perspectus or Summary Perspectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, foresight fund services, LLC. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. Come back to the glorious market. At least it's glorious for me. Continuing the shop around the highs, now we're down 10 points in the S&P cash. Again, I suspect we're gonna see this kind of ratchet up with every move higher, someone's gonna dive on. And that's pretty much at lows, even in markets that are going lower, later, not now. You see the most poor, people get the most short at the bottom of a move. And again, I'm not saying that it's all over. I'm just saying that you could have an extended move higher. Most of that move in a bear market happens in the first few days of that move. And then you're gonna see this kind of a few days of that move, and then you kind of stumble up kind of lazily. Eventually you get up some resistance level, all the volume falls out. Like it did here to the downside, and you see a much higher move come. Yeah, actually made from nickel. Okay, we got a few more emails here. Take a quick look at the other usual suspects, MSFT. Again, this one you'd like probably a little lighter volume. The big deal on this one was $250 and two cents. It was on May 12th with 51 million shares. Today you got down in there, what was the low of the day? 251.88, so you're a couple of bucks above that. But you've got half the volume at 245 Eastern time, market time, Florida is the great state and free state time out here with half the volume. So now, could we get a meteor hit the planet? Could someone set off a nuke and I'd be wrong? Yes, but I bought options. So my downside is limited and my upside is a jack of the beanstalk can grow all the way to the sky. Of course it would have to do that one day. What else do we have out here? Question about deer, nothing runs like a deer. I remember I grew up in my teens. When we moved in, it was nothing but corn, and that changed when I moved out over the period of a number of years to nothing but new suburbia. But I remember looking at the time that the farm magazines that some of the kids would have at school and they'd be looking at tractors. I thought, well, these people are nuts. Who wants to look at a tractor? Anyway, they'd have these magazines. And of course, a deer had this one and it said we stand behind all our machinery except our manure spreaders. I always remember that. Anyway, we had a big dip down into this one. Now, did we get the volume necessary or is this actually setting up to look for something much better? So last low is the May 12th, 1.9 million shares at $354.30. We almost got there today. What was the low of the day, 356.30? So within a couple of bucks, we got 1.4 million shares. I think there's better stuff out there in the sea. But again, any clothes about 10 bucks higher would put in a fairly decent low and a double repo pattern kind of out here. So the better view of this is the March 10th low that had 3.5 million shares today compared to the 1.4 million shares. So this is the first lower low May 12th. This is the second lower, well, not lower low, but a retest of that 362.30. And the volume's not all that exciting. That's kind of the whole market. So could we just have a deadcat bounce in the market based on nothing but people giving up selling and far too many people getting short after a huge run, also not the same kind of people that stayed at the party well, after the hosts are hinting that you should have left. Well, that could be it. Cornfield in the fall. It is a field of dreams, certainly is there. See if we have anything else. I got new messages here. Okay, question about a possible Nike move. Well, you certainly, this is kind of the whole market too and what I was talking about yesterday, the volume wasn't coming in. On the Nike, you got 10 million shares from May 12th. Yeah, 105, got to 106.76 with half that volume today. So that's pretty good indication you'd bounce. I don't know, maybe I don't know if I've got it here. Let's see if I do. If I've got the options data already in for Nike to see what they look like, right? Today is Thursday all day long. Let's draw that chart. Okay, well, you got a pretty good indication that this thing wants to expire between 110 and 115. So what was your thing, 120 calls? That's for a week from today or a week from tomorrow. You could do that. I wonder what short sellers have been doing in Nike. Certainly you might get a lot of that tomorrow, I think, in KE, okay. You don't have a lot of bi-monthly shorting. You got 1.5 days to cover. I would kind of like a little bit more than that. Not that it's not going higher. It's just, I love to see natural born suckers on the wrong side if I'm going long. And I don't see a lot. The real shorting in this is at 113. That was the last big day of short selling that was on the 13th. So a week ago last Friday closes 113. So for acceleration and higher, Nike needs 113 more than likely, and you had 23 and a half percent short that day, but that was it. You don't have a ton of shorts. And generally the best thing to do to put together light volume, heavy shorting is in a week, as I said, next week, where probably by Tuesday, half of Wall Street's gonna be out at the Hamptons. So it's gonna be light and variable. The shorts probably slowly have to cover, but my guess is a lot of that happens in the next 24 hours. So that's it. Anyway, there you go. Okay. Is there any advantage to options that have 10 times the volume compared to the open interest for tomorrow? I haven't really found that. They're gonna cut almost all the premiums out by the time they're worth anything. A lot of times I actually exercise my options. So as long as they're good, that's it. It's generally find options that will actually pay you what it's worth when you have on a Friday going into exploration. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis, and it's not just dry tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. 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Larry will also provide daily charts, videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com, educating investors. Catch Tom O'Brien, professional trader and educator, founder of TFNN. Also a special guest on CNBC. Tom will bisect and dissect the markets. The Tom O'Brien Show, next on TFNN. As we come back, getting ready to wrap up another wonderful day in trading. What would you call it? Trade-on? I don't know. I do digress once again. And of course, it will be very easy to win that award once again at the TFNN awards policy of digression and other things too. Crude oil up 242, yeah, that does you a lot. But what do we have? Well, as I said, you've got a market that's kind of saying, I think I can. Does it have to be a rip your face off rally? It does not. In fact, the slower and more methodical that the ticks higher are, just means that maybe we get more and more, we get into Friday's expiration. If we got any kind of big rip up to 4,000, I'd probably be saying. Asta la Vista, somebody in the den said, maybe I should find somebody to be in my movie, natural born suckers. I wanna say a shout out to one of my favorite customers of all time. And that was Dick Van Dyke, who is 96 years old today. Most of the people I dealt with were all, of course, behind the cartons kind of guys. Some of them would win Academy Awards, but none of the ones that were given away during television shows, these were all folks in the background for the most part, like me. But Dick Van Dyke, he was one of these guys that back in the 60s even had a eight millimeter film camera. And he took pictures and movies throughout his entire life. And he would call us up and he was editing his own stuff out. He lived in Colorado at the time. Don't know where he is now, but that was in the mid to late 90s. This is 20 years on. He edited his whole life out. I guess that's gonna hit one day after he dies. So when you can, not when you have to, we're gonna be here for the Super Bowl tomorrow. Building wealth trading in the stock market seems impossible.