 All right, what's up everybody? This is Alex from Xtrades and welcome back to another weekly trade ideas list I hope everybody had a wonderful trading week last week had a good weekend an extended weekend Happy Easter to everybody if you celebrate that we are now going back into the stock market with a full week this week Should be pretty interesting We had PCE on Friday and also Jerome Powell speaking while the market was closed Apparently the futures did like that because now we are gapped up this Sunday night basically on everything on ES Which is the S&P and Q which is the NASDAQ and also RTY Which is basically the IWM or small and mid caps all gapping up tonight So as long as we hold overnight everything looking pretty bullish PCE came in line I would say the data was relatively neutral and maybe the market just took that as a positive also Jerome Powell Really didn't say anything new and sometimes it's honestly just good for the market for him not to say anything new at all Because if the market is still optimistic about rate cuts about inflation going down about economic growth Then there's really no reason to change the course and we were seeing that reflect in the price action But for this week we do have a couple of data sets I would say some pretty important ones starting off Monday on April 1st We do have the S&P US manufacturing PMIs PMIs always have a chance to move us and bring some volatility Also have ISM manufacturing. This is usually always a big one So definitely pay attention to that and then on Tuesday one of the most important labor data sets It's gonna be Jolt's job openings. That's at 10 a.m. So 30 minutes after the bell There's likely going to be some pretty big volatility the Jolt's job openings usually does bring some type of knee-jerk reaction Either way and it brings day trading opportunities also have a couple Fed speakers that day We have Bowman Loretta and Dolly speaking and on Wednesday another PMI reading this time It's going to be S&P US services PMI. So we have manufacturing on Monday Services on Wednesday also have ISM services that can definitely move us really anything ISM Manufacturing or services usually a pretty big one looks like we have Fed chair Jerome Powell speaking again at 12 10 Not exactly sure how big this event will be but I doubt he's going to say anything new It might be a nothing burger for the market and then on Thursday. We are very stocked for Fed speakers We have Harker, Barkin, Gulsby, Mester and Kashkari and then on Friday. We have the biggest labor data set It's going to be non-farm payrolls the unemployment rate and also hourly wages Also a couple Fed speakers going to have Barkin, Logan and Bowman and also consumer credit at 3 most important It's going to be the non-farm payrolls. That's the big one of the week second probably going to be Jolt's job openings Third I would say is going to be the PMIs and also the ISM services and ISM Manufacturing and then also like I said PMIs also services and manufacturing those can move us as well So pretty stacked for data this week definitely pay attention to all of it Basically every single day could have a market moving event and on to seasonality for this week It looks like we are coming into this week April 1st to the 5th It's going to be another bullish week last week was also Relatively bullish. I believe the winning trade percentage last week is also the same as this week at 65 percent We have a summarized profit of 10 percent So that's all the gains put together over the last 20 years and it looks like we have 13 gains and 7 losses The last 20 years for this period if we go down to 10 years for the most recent years You can see it's actually relatively flat, which is interesting We only have winning trades at 50 percent to the short side Summarized profit at negative 3 percent with gains at 5 and losses at 5 the last 10 years So obviously the 20-year data set has much more data implemented into it And I would say we could look at the 20-year data set with a little bit more confidence But it's good to look at the 10-year also so we can get an idea of recent market conditions So we don't have as much data in the 10-year data set, but still good to look at both You could see the 10-year looking kind of flat with the 20-year at an ultra bowl And according to the stock almanac as well this week is also bullish on that end as well I believe the almanac accounts for either 50 to 100 years of data And I believe there's bull icons for Monday Tuesday and Wednesday Maybe there are different dates, but either way this week is historically bullish on the almanac's front And also this 20-year data set on the seasonality So looking pretty good if we have the markets breaking 52 week highs and staying over 52 week highs also holding your 9 and 21 EMA combo on the spy or the indexes I don't really see any reason for us to go lower anything unless we break back under the 52 week highs Make it new resistance, also start breaking your moving averages, etc So looking pretty bullish, nothing's really changed Seasonality's good, indexes look good for now Market reacted positively to Friday's data Alright, not to the individual setups I do have three this week all looking at calls again Last week I feel like the market was so choppy There was really only like one, I would say That was a good setup in our list last week and that was Starbucks Gave at least a 2% rally off the demand zone that we were looking at But TSM kind of fell back into 135s I feel like TSM is still a pretty good setup over 135 to 133 So if it's holding over that, that means it's holding a back test in structure low and it could bounce back up TSM is also not really broken in some moving averages with an obvious break yet It's still holding structure and overall I feel like If NVIDIA bounces and SMH is holding up, I feel like TSM has a chance to bounce as well I do have one single call for April 19 from last week We are down maybe about 40% on that right now But I did just start with one so it's not hurting me too bad I'm going to hold that into next week, hopefully we can see a bounce in TSM But I'm hoping this week we have some good setups Because the market was just choppy last week I mean the spy, the QQQ really didn't go anywhere And neither did a lot of stocks Especially Semi, Semi's kind of were very slow And we saw that rotation into IWM, small, mid caps, etc But for our first one here, we're looking at Amazon This is actually more of a short term trade setup Just because Amazon is so high already This is kind of a momentum scalp You can see we have a big one day ascending triangle formation You have a test one, a test two, test three, test four, bounce This trend line is very strong You also have one rejection here Basically a rejection here and a short term rejection here Which is flat top resistance Flat top resistance plus higher lows holding Equals ascending triangle as such So with ascending triangles, obviously they are bilateral So they can break in either direction Your trade is going to be either on a break of this If it's a blow off top and you have that confirmation over the breakout Or if it breaks the lower trend line that can also be a flush play Right now I'm focused to the long side And that's obvious because we are closing over 180s You can see that's 180, 14 level Was a big resistance here Rejected short term here and overall We did close over that on Friday So as long as the futures hold overnight This is likely going to turn into some type of 52 week breakout play For max upside, you really only have up to 188 Before you hit resistance So that's pretty straightforward on that end I can show you where the 188 comes from It's basically the all time high resistance So you can see a double top tier back in 21 And we haven't been there since So that's kind of where we're at Higher lows holding, flat top resistance Equals ascending triangle Ascending triangle breaking over the resistance Can't turn into a bullish pattern So it's going to be some type of momentum scalp Maybe for day trades I'm not sure about a short term swing Maybe if you went with May expiration minimum To deal with draw down risk or like a fake breakout Especially at this kind of level You could do that But I feel like this is a good short term setup Just off the fact this could turn into a big velocity breakout Up to 188 So keep it on watch Looks pretty good Moving averages still holding You're 9, 21 EMA combo It's been a classic It's been working all the way through the new year So that's for Amazon looking at calls Mostly a short term Set up for day trades or scalps With the potential for a swing trade I guess if you bought time To deal with draw down risk or a fake breakout Up to 188 All right, number two We're going on to Walgreens So this is actually setting up Very similar to its last wedge breakout You can see our last wedge year I believe I posted this in the trade ideas list before All the way back in December Whenever this wedge was forming Whenever it broke out I'm pretty sure we did post this And I mentioned to look out for calls to the upside So it's basically just a repeat Or a potential repeat Obviously the market's not going to do The same exact thing it did prior But we are kind of getting evidence That this could turn into another big squeeze up Maybe it could turn into a melt up as well And just go up slowly It honestly just depends Obviously you want a lot of volume in the market To see this kind of momentum And you can see back in December here We had a big breakup bar here And the volume was all over average In this period right here So you want to see that same exact thing Obviously as long as it's holding over average I feel like the momentum could get big like this For a little bit And then you can see once the volume dropped off Down here Started going back below average That's when it started slowing down And selling back off So you want to see the breakout Just holding volume bars like this In this period You can see they're all over the moving average On the volume indicator And that's basically how you get big momentum like this So it's off to a good start With the volume You can see it had earnings on Thursday Before the market closed early that week So there's obviously a lot of activity from the earnings And started off with a pretty good breakout bar With good volume Obviously you just want to see a continuation All bars holding above average for volume And you could see some momentum just like this We're also closing over that 9 to 21 e-mail combo MACD is also positive as well This is still relatively in a value area Anything near these lows Really near this 2009 support Yes, the support is all the way From the great financial crisis basically That's a value area Really anything down here for WBA is value Just speaking for technical terms And not talking about fundamentals here I'm talking about technical levels This is a value area for sure So WBA looking at calls I don't think this is going to be a short term setup I like if you buy time on this May expiration minimum Maybe you could even go for June Give you lots of time Maybe eventually you could get back up to this 27s right here Maybe it won't go as fast as it did in this period But if you buy a lot of time you can give it room You can see they retrace back up to the 27s Obviously this 2463 Which is this resistance right here That could be an issue Also that 2377 This rejection area right here That could also be an issue as well So make sure to watch those But give it lots of time to retrace up And don't expect this momentum to repeat In this amount of time This is very quick I know it looks like it could Just because you have the same wedge formation Basically at the same value it was last time But keep your expectations low Be realistic Buy lots of time Because stocks can trade really slow upward as well They're not just going to go straight up like this all the time So just keep that in mind Buy time, be patient WBA looking at calls Alright, and last but not least We're looking at BABA I was actually a little bit hesitant To add this one to the list But I was really struggling finding other setups After I found Amazon and WBA I went through the whole list of 200 plus tickers I have And I really just couldn't find Anything that wasn't already just a continuation pattern Or something that wasn't already really expensive Or just something that was very choppy And didn't really have that wide of trading ranges Between their support and resistance I looked at BABA here And I was a little bit skeptical because this is also choppy But I would say this support and this resistance There's a pretty good amount of points between that I mean you almost have six or seven points Between resistance and support here So I figured it could make a good trade Just because you have a pretty wide range And you have room from down here up to the resistance You want to find an area with a lot of free space That has a lot of room from support to resistance That's basically all trading is or trading a breakout So if you're buying at support You're looking for your price target at the next resistance For breakouts You're basically buying either a downtrend line breakout Or a flat top horizontal line breakout as well Sometimes at 52 week highs You don't have any price targets to go off of And you have to measure them yourself Or just go off whole numbers But for BABA here we do have strong support at 70 to 71 I would call 70 to 71 a zone Just because you have a short term bounce here off 71 Short term bounce off this low at 70 flat And I would say as long as that structure low is holding We do have a chance to bounce back up to the supply Or the multi-top area So you have a top here, top here, top here, top here Four rejections, basically four bounces as well So very choppy Like I said that's why I was a little bit hesitant In putting this out But I feel like China is very undervalued at the moment Especially with their political climate Their real estate, their economic data It is all very iffy And I feel like they're just lacking for an investment right now Just due to all those issues that I just named One that did really good was JDE They had a pretty good earnings And they've been going up since their earnings And having pretty good trading going on Especially the price action But BABA, very undervalued Price to earnings is very low I know for a fact it is I believe it's either 8 to 10 right now If you didn't know the S&P average price to earnings Is probably like 15 to 20 So BABA is very low right now In terms of price to earnings They have a lot of free cash flow Lots of good fundamentals They just can't get anywhere at the moment So if you want to look at BABA Look at it as a potential long-term play I mean you are buying you the lows You're buying in a chopped range It might need some room to fart around some more I mean this could go on for God knows how long Another thing it will need to do eventually It probably will need to break out of this big downtrend line You have a test one, a test two And a test three rejection here So if you can get out of that Get over 80 eventually I feel like this can find some good momentum But right now it is still pretty suppressed at the moment So basically if you're a short-term trader If it starts breaking under 70 You'll want to look at something else So if you're just looking at short-term swings on this If it starts breaking under 70 Just look at something else Long-term traders People with a lot of time that can handle drawdown 66, 63 Is this low right here If it starts breaking under that That's basically a game over point That's basically your structured lows Like I said, 71 to 70 Your short-term You're more long to medium-term At the 66 area So that's for Baba looking at calls MACD is negative So that's kind of a downer Also have price trending under 921 EMA combo on Monday Also trading under 921 EMA on the one week We will need to get over that one week one For sure You can see that's been an issue here It rejected short-term here It's been rejecting here And the last two times It got up here rejected as well So we'll need to get over that one week 921 EMA combo One good thing MACD is crossed over to the upside So that's positive And one week MACDs are a little bit more reliable Than a short-term MACD signal So definitely keep an eye on that Still holding Obviously this has been crossed over for almost a month Probably a little bit over a month And it really hasn't had any fruition But like I said That short-term 70 to 71 That's a good level to watch Make sure it holds over that Overall needs to hold over 66 But Baba looking at calls Be patient Buy lots of time if you can Alright And on to the indexes So last week on SPY We were really just focused on this 518-22 Which is a back test level I'm pretty sure I mentioned This is probably the best area to look for at Dip Buy You can see why We pulled into that on Tuesday Basically held up that area And we did bounce the next day after that Closed up almost 1% And hit 52 week high resistance So the technicals are pretty straightforward Last week you had 524 As new resistance You had 518-22 As potential support Or a back test You had the 508s below Which was not tested at all And also 505 right below that So the levels are the same thing this week Since we I mean we basically closed at the same spot Right now with the ES futures up We're likely going to break over this As long as it opens up where we're at right now So you probably will have a new 52 week breakout Once the market opens on Monday As long as it holds overnight Really never know The market can just shit the bed If it wants to overnight Nothing has to hold But I just wanted to mention that You probably will see This 524 breakout And your new area to look for support Is going to be 524 You want to see that same Support and resistance flip You've been seeing And that's really all the market has been I can show you on the ES4 hour The support and resistance flips Have just been spot on Every single time basically That's pretty much been the only way to trade Either buying back tests Or going at the 9 and 21 email combo On the one day Like we've been covering Every single week Probably for like a month or two The 9 and 21 email combo Is just a really good way to Added a short term value area But I'll show you these real quick Here's a pretty strong support And resistance flip You have a breakout And resistance Turning into support here Tried to do it right here Actually failed, went back within But held up to support here You have a new resistance Right here At this area Turn into support right here Bounced off of that And you have it again right here You have a kind of double top resistance Pulls into that Last week and we bounced off of that But you can just see over and over It's basically just resistance Turning into support Week after week So here's the ES It is breaking out So you can pretty much guess That 524 on the spy Is going to be broken out As long as this closes over that We will want to see a new base Getting formed off of this This new resistance Turning into support Probably the best area to add up If you are just trading the momentum Obviously this 52A breakouts Can be good Sending triangle breakouts are good as well Just for scalps For short term stuff Because lots of times you will see that Quick breakout And then it will pull back Likely just do a smart money Unloading supply Taking profits at the 52A kites Well retail buys it And that's why it does that every single time Horizontal breakouts A little bit more hard to trust That's why if you buy the back tests Wait for previous resistance To turn into support That's a good value area on the short term Or just add a trend lines like this Or add at the one day 21 EMA combo Like I've been showing you So yeah, that's the futures Which is also basically the spy With S&P 500 We want to see this 524 Turning into a new base Or support eventually It's basically the only way to Go about the spy right now Also if it can pull back Into 518 for some reason That could be a good area to add as well We have demand down here At the 510s It's a little drop base rally zone If a drop base rally So if you can get down there It's from 510 to 508 That's a good area to add And then also 505 flat Also another multi kind of hold Bounce area from right here So that's for the spy Here's your moving averages Basically last week It was just another pull into the one day 9 EMA Didn't tap it directly But either way If you had that 518-22 that we marked You would have been fine You could have bought the dip at that area It was pretty good You see we had a pretty nice bounce For two days right there But I would still count this as a You know a 9 EMA bounce Basically pulled into the general area Not always going to get a direct touch It's just a higher low That led to a higher high Which it did This is a higher high Even though it closed back within It's still a higher high Not the cleanest But either way we made a new high After making a higher low So that's for the spy Make sure to mark those levels that I have It's going to be 524-11 518-22 508-50 And 505 Alright now onto the QQQ Which actually really didn't go anywhere Tech kind of lagged the spy And also the IWM I think we still got some good QQQ scalps in If I'm not mistaken I think on the X trades out I logged a couple good QQQ wins For scalps for day trades But otherwise I mean the QQQ Really did lag last week You can see we did not test The 52 week high resistance area And the QQQ really didn't bounce as good On Wednesday as spy did Spy closed up almost 1% QQQ only closed up 0.34% So not that great Nothing's really changed from last week We are still holding your 1 day 9 and 21 EMA combo So you can see this big wick Off of the QQQ right here I think on Monday it did have a pretty good Run up to 447s Off the 1 day 9 EMA But then closed back down red And then just kept holding up this 1 day 9 and 21 EMA combo area Basically all week It really didn't go anywhere otherwise Like I said it was a very choppy week Kind of a tough one to trade We do have a new base at the 442s We got 442.50 Which is a bounce zone right here Also kind of a multi bottom hold area Right here that led to a bounce So if you want to mark 442.54 to 442 Or 441.90s That's this low Plus this low right here And then for resistance Nothing has changed It's still that 448.64 The same 52 week rejection From this big bar right here And that's why we rejected it right here Just due to this big sailing bounce So we tried to repeat it right here Obviously not with the same velocity This is a very steep drop This is a very slow drop But it looks like tech is holding up pretty good For the futures tonight So I'm guessing this will just turn into A 1 day 9 EMA bounce We could look at the futures real quick if you want I'm guessing it's just doing the same thing And that's why I keep repeating The 1 day 9 and 21 EMA combo Is really the only analysis for the indexes right now That's it There's nothing else going on Every single time we get into The 9 and 21 EMA combo There is a bounce You got a bounce here Bounce here Bounce here And it's just over and over I tried to break under here But then once we reclaimed Pulled in Bounce So higher low is higher highs That's it guys Kind of breaking a little wedge or flag break out here Nothing crazy So here's the NQ It's another thing you can watch going into next week Right now on the NQ You have resistance at 18709 So it's probably the max upside I can see for right now If we can't break over that Obviously that can turn into resistance Just short term Not a lot of volatility in the market right now The VIX is very low So really any dips are very slow And they're not very fast And we're not seeing drops or ATRs wide And like we saw in this little period right here Our drops last week are very small And they were bought back up pretty quick You can see it I mean it's just chopped guys But now we're starting to break out of this little structure So that's interesting Watching that Really just looking for a move up into that 52 week high res And that's about it And I'm guessing that equates to the The 44860s on the QQQ So that 52 week high res on NQ Is probably this 52 week high res on QQQ So that would take you up to The 448s about here And that can turn into res if we don't break it out But as long as you've been buying at that 921 email combo It's been treating you well It was really hard for me to get bearish on the QQQ Just due to the fact that We did not close under that 433 structures We were looking at a couple weeks ago It held that up, bounced off of it So once it starts holding this You know 3, 4, 5 bottoms It's showing strong support And you really can't do anything about it Especially if we're not closing inside the gap It's not gonna flush So that's why it's been tough Obviously you can watch 44864 for put scalps If you can get up there Show a nice rejection bar in the 15 minute You could always try to take a quick scalp But for swing trades I don't really see any confirmation For put swings right now You really don't have a volatility signal You don't have really anything to go off Of no reversal signal or anything It keeps holding your moving averages Keeps holding your supports or structure lows And nothing's really changing So need a way for some things to change Need a way for a change of behavior And I feel like the market will show a pretty obvious change Once it's time Right now we just don't have that So that's for QQQ Just make sure the 1-day 921 email combo is holding Just like the spy Obviously we'll need to get over that 448s If you can break over that There could be some pretty big velocity For a 52-week high breakout 52-week high breakouts are a little bit more tough They really don't last very long Until they get a pullback Like you might get one big breakout bar Like this and then it'll pull back Make a higher low, keep doing the same thing Put in just a little bit higher Like this one, pull back And it just keeps repeating that So it's a little bit hard to trade those vertical breakouts Or horizontal line breakouts But you can day trade them And they can make, you know Make you some quick money On a good trend day with a lot of volume Alright, and last but not least We'll go over the VIX Just because I feel like the VIX Is getting into an interesting zone So I haven't really been looking at the VIX Just because it really has been boring Hasn't really been going anywhere But when it comes to VIX There's a pretty straightforward range That's going off of right now You have the 1237 to 1182 lows With an obvious resistance level at 1540 Got a rejection here A rejection here Price falls back under right here Rejection here Big WIC rejection right here So multiple rejections of the 15s To 16 area You can see the 16 is also a factor Also have a WIC high at the 1794s So it's been very tight I mean, we used to say that You really don't want to short the market Until VIX is over 20 But now the VIX is so low I feel like this 15 to 16 area Is a volatility sweet spot It'll probably need to get over 15 to 16 To show a signal for us to short the market Just because volatility has been so tight and contracted A lot of things have changed So that 20 used to be kind of a sweet spot Once the VIX got over 20 You could really kind of start opening puts And buying protection And it gave us a good reason Because once the VIX got over 20 You would see very big swings in the market Especially in 2022 Once it got over that 20 area I mean, shit really hit the fan And there was a reason to buy protection Now, not so much 20 is almost acting as a resistance area Since 2023 You could see every time it gets to 20 Back here in May 23 Big rejections at 20 We reached the 20s in October 23 Rejected there So now we've been hanging at lows Basically since the new year So for about four months From December to now This 15, 1794 and 1182 area Has basically been our trading range for the VIX But every time it gets down to this 1273 You could see there's some type of reaction If a big push-up bar right here Off 1273 If a big push-up bar right here Off 1237 If a little hold-up area And bounce off the 1237 here Right here And right here Short-term reaction area right here But we really didn't see any follow-through last week So I was basically looking for some type Of volatility signal last week Just in case 1237 wanted to hold It has been holding still So I feel like there's still a chance It could get back up to the 15s And then once it gets up to the 15s You probably want to be careful Because volatility likely will sell back off Short-term again And the market will bounce very aggressively Otherwise short-term You probably want to get over this 1367 Which is, I believe, Monday's high So if we can get over that little short-term level Right there That could shoot us up to the 15s But otherwise, I mean, we're still just hanging at the lows There's no volatility signal yet Just mark that 1367 If we do get a push over that That's a good short-term volatility signal Maybe go for a put scalp on the spy If it starts closing over 1367 That likely will take us up to 1540, et cetera Overall, the market will need to get under 1237 And 1182 Which is a structure low right here That would probably bring a really slow market So I'm hoping that it won't break under that I'm hoping that volatility can get back up to the 15s or so That would likely bring a little dip in the market And a good one to buy as well So VIX gets up to 15 That gives a good dip We buy it, volatility sells off aggressively Market bounces aggressively as well So that's kind of my dream scenario right now Just make sure to mark these levels 1237, 1182 That's your structure lows Your short-term breakout area for a volatility signal You want to break over 1367 If we get over that Lots of free space up to 1540 And it could get up there very quick I mean, you could see It can get up there in one bar if it wants to So just wait for that signal Do not short the market Until you get that breakout of 1367 on the VIX The VIX usually gives some pretty obvious signals When it wants the market to go lower And when people start piling into hedges So hope you guys enjoyed this video Make sure you like, comment, and subscribe I need to go ahead and get this chopped up Sent out all that good stuff Or it will be up all night So I love you guys, hope you enjoyed it And I'm out There's a reason why Xtrades is currently The fastest growing application on the market For sharing financial ideas With over $2.5 million paid in the last two years To contributors, users are flocking To see what trades the top traders on the leaderboard Are sharing in real time If you're looking to grow your reputation As a trader on the internet Or disgust your trading ideas With other reputable investors Click the link below And get connected with the trading mentor today Completely free of charge