 Number one, what needs to happen going into tomorrow's session, we need to reclaim 275, right? If we can reclaim 275, I do believe there's a shot back at 278, and at 278, if you are a bull trader, you better hope they reclaim that 278 level. Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys. Good evening, everybody. Welcome to another edition of TheAx is a Trader.com, a nightly wrap-up show. Hope everybody is doing well, right? We got three days left till Santa Claus comes. The question is, have you been naughty? Have you been nice? Are you getting Christmas presents? Or are you getting cold? And for the bulls and the bears, this is still to be determined. We'll get to that in a second. As always, guys, welcome aboard. For all you new folks, please like to continue to support the channel. And if you are new, please subscribe so you can get notified when we are uploaded. So other than that, hope everybody is having a great time to their great start to their festive season. Hopefully it spills over good fortune, good health into 2023. So let's talk about it. Number one, yesterday, my son had a game. There was no video last night. My son had a game like an hour, hour and 15 away. It's away. The game went a little longer than I got caught in traffic. By the time I got home, it was so late, I couldn't even put a sentence together. So I apologize. There was no video yesterday. But if you go back to pretty much not a Vendee yesterday, anyway, but if you go back to the weekend video, we talked about, you know, NASDAQ down, you know, six, seven sessions in a row, right? No matter how you slice it, the worst markets, the best markets, the market when it's strong doesn't go straight up, the market when it's weak, it doesn't go straight down. And eventually, if you watch the video over the weekend, we kind of said, look, Monday and Tuesday, Monday and Tuesday, we'll probably get a dead cab balance. They attempted the dead cab balance yesterday. They didn't quite make it. Today, they finally got their dead cab balance. So let's kind of review from the technical point of view of what recently happened, what happened today, and what I think is going to happen in the next couple of days. So let's talk about it, right? So we all know the importance of this 50 day moving average that we, you know, pretty much broke, dipped below and started building below this 50 day moving average of this 278 level. We covered that 278 level pretty much in nausea prior to that 278 area of concentration, right? So we had another four days down, tired sellers got, you know, just kind of got winded, right? It's the best way of saying it. Again, nothing goes straight down. And we finally got our dead cab balance. So when you look at the final tally today, you got all the major benchmarks pretty much up about give or take about 1.5%, you know, 1.5% on the positive side, which is fine, which is absolutely fine. Here's where we, you know, here's where we look at the market from a common sense point of view instead of from the emotional point of view. We all know just like any other, you know, any other, you know, any other entity, for example, when a stock breaks out, let's, let's, let's use this as an example, right? When a stock breaks out and breaks out above $50 a share, and it goes on a two, three day run, and it goes to 53 bucks, right? There's usually some profit taking and there's a good chance that there should be at least one retest, right? Retest where the stock has broken out. Again, this is not exclusive information to the PS60 theory. This is just bare bones, technical analysis and how any of you guys trade, you probably have realized that over the years, stocks break out, retest those levels of the breakout they hold and they go back again. Well, the same thing happens on the downside as well, right? So here is the breakdown here below 278. We went all the way down to 267, right? There's a high probability if we do get one more day of, you know, dead cat bounce and that's what it is, right? Until we get above the 278 area, all this is a dead cat bounce. And again, whatever you want to call it, potato, potato, it doesn't make a difference. It is what it is, right? So today, give a credit to the bulls, they traded, they reclaimed, and I mean the Qs, they reclaimed the five day moving average. If there is another day up tomorrow, right? The Qs have to get above 275, right? That's today's upper channel. If the Qs can start building above this 275 level today, then I do think there's a shot, right? There's a shot between today and Friday. We can retest back, right? To where this whole breakdown started, this 278 level. What I think is going to happen if that is the case, right? If we start rallying the next couple of days, if that is the case, I do believe the bears will defend that 278 initially. If you guys remember, well, that's usually what happens when you lose a major area, a major support, they're going to try to retest it and they're probably going to be unsuccessful the first time. If there is going to be a success and we're having this conversation at more meaningful prices, then that's going to need to kind of need to build a base below that 278 a little bit and then finally get through. I personally don't think it's going to happen very, very quickly. But again, hopefully I'm wrong and hopefully we're having this conversation a lot higher. But from the intermediate, short-term conversation, number one, what needs to happen going into tomorrow's session, we need to reclaim 275, right? If we can reclaim 275, I do believe there's a shot back at 278. And at 278, if you are a bull trader, you better hope they reclaim that 278 level. If you are the believer that this is strictly just a replacement, retracement off of technical damage that occurred below the 278 level, then if you are a bear, you're going to probably want to initiate a short position off that around that 278 area. So that's kind of both sides. It's not a biased statement. It's not something that I want or need to happen. Again, for me, it doesn't make a difference. I trade both sides of the market long, short, and doesn't make a difference. The trickiest part about a dead cat bounce, like we always talk about, it's dead. That's the whole point. It's dead. You could have a gap up on the dead cat bounce. That's exactly what we had today. And then you'll have stocks trying to go up another dollar or so, not named Apple, not named Meta. That was actually very strong. And speaking of Apple, you can see it, right? Here's kind of my point of view on Apple. You could turn around today and say, wow, Apple is strong. Apple's not strong. Apple had a dead cat bounce. The stock just went in the last five days from 146 to 132. How can you call a stock strong being back at 135? It did fine today, right? It did absolutely fine today. It reclaimed back the five-day moving average. Is it possible if Apple starts building above today's highs tomorrow, can it get back to this 140 level, 140 level when the stock broke down, the same case as the Qs? Absolutely. But again, let's kind of redefine, right? Let's kind of reclassify what the word strong is, okay? Stop going from 150 to 132 in a week and then going up $3, very, very tough to use the word strong. Let's find something else, constructive, productive, one day at a time, baby steps. These are all cool things to kind of use, but it's very, very tough to say, wow, Apple ripped today. Okay, right? Potato-potato. But any case, again, for it to rally at least one more day, it's going to need to confirm this whole channel here that it lost three days ago and start building back into this 40, 41 area. Again, the same case as the Qs, if the Qs broke down at 178 and you want to, you know, you want to initial, take an initial stab at the short side into that 178 push on the Qs, that's valid. If you want to take one more, assuming it gets there, of course, if you want to take a push into this 141 level where Apple broke down this 40, 41 level, that's valid as well. So the bulls, the bulls definitely got a little bit of work to do and if you go through charts, you'll see that on a lot of names, right? Again, the hardest days to trade are countertrend days. They're just the hardest because you already know that the trend in the overall market now, since we're below the 50-day moving average is down, because as we say all the time, just because we're below the 50-day moving average doesn't mean the market's going to go hell in a handbasket. Hell, you can just see it right here, right? Here's the breakdown of the 50-day. We went down, down, down, up, up, up, down, down, down, down, down, up, down, down, down, down, down, up, down, down, down, down, down, up, down, down, down, right? You kind of get the point. So we're not going to go straight down. We're not going to go straight up and as long as the bulls keep on getting rejected back underneath the 50-day moving average, again, the trend continues to be to the downside, at least the value continues to be to the downside. What the bulls do not want to happen more than anything, right? Anything tomorrow is start losing today's lows, right? We don't want that, right? If you're a bull, we don't want that. So it needs to reclaim 275 to the upside for a measured potential back to the 50-day content point or rejection point, or if the bears start losing, if the bear stays start taking control of today's lows at 269, 70s level, then again, we already know what's going to happen next. It's pretty basic stuff. The good part about it is we're winding down the end of the year. I'm just basically in like scalp mode today. I just like did a couple of rejections. You know, they worked a little bit for a little bit. Ironically, if you guys remember, the biggest move of the day came from IQ. If you guys remember, I did a video last week, we talked about unusual option flow on this thing. This thing finally broke out. They were coming for short-term expiration for 50s, even $5 calls in January. This is actually ironically the biggest move of the day. Everything else was just like, you know, up 50 cents, down, up 50 cents. So again, dead cat balances are, it's like playing a 2-7 offsuit and you're just bluffing your opponent on the other side of the table. Again, stocks need structure, stocks need wind in at their back. Again, if you're an investor, I'm not talking to you, right? I'm not talking to you. We're not having a conversation. Well, I think Amazon's going to be a 220 in the next six to eight years. Okay, great. We're talking about tomorrow, right? We're talking about tomorrow and it doesn't make a difference what you think is going to happen tomorrow, where I think it's going to happen tomorrow. We're either going to literally take out the top of the range here and start confirming back today's channels and take a stab back at the 2.78 level or we're going to lose today's lows and start going back to the previous lows. The one stock, again, the one stock that's just not rallying, it just continues to just sit there, man. You can just see, man, it feels like forced liquidation. I feel like we're having the same conversation literally every single day. It cannot get above water. Again, it tried today a couple of times. The NASDAQ at one point today was over about 200 points. It tried. It's several times. It tried. Again, it's just like a drowning victim. It's like, they push it right back down. And that's exactly what's happening to Tesla. We did see some 130 puts coming in for the end of the week. So Tesla's going to need some work to do. Just like Apple, is there a chance this thing dead cow bounces? Yeah, there's a range that I'm watching to the upside that I'm prepared for just like Apple. Because Apple went down like a billion days in a row and then finally decided that selling got a little bit numb. It could happen to Tesla as well. So I'm definitely keeping an eye on potential bounce in the next couple of days on Tesla. But again, I've been saying that pretty much, hey, be careful since like here, right? Since here. This was what about five, six days ago. So it just continues to go lower. So that's it, guys. That's pretty much it. We're winding down 2022. A lot of good things happen in 2022. We matured. We got better or as like to say, you know, there's no such thing as a great trader. Okay, so stop trying to inspire yourself to be a great trader. Be a great human being, but more important, right? More important, be nice, right? Be nice. It doesn't cost you to be nice. It's free. And I'm telling you, life tastes and smells and feels a lot better when people are actually on your side and not fighting for your throat. Guys, God bless, stay blessed, and I will see you guys tomorrow. Take care.