 of Traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of Traders, just visit the front page of TFNN.com. The following is a presentation of TFNN. Trade what you see with Larry Pezzavento. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now, Larry Pezzavento. Okay, looking good. Billy Ray feeling good, Lewis. Billy Ray Valentine, Capricorn. Well, folks, we posted the chart of the eBini S&P that we've been watching here for the last three days. Yesterday we went short at the 4158 level. We got down to 4127. That was 30 handles. We ended up taking about 12, I think about 18 points out of that one. And then we left our stop in at 4178. And boy, if you didn't think that was a little scary because we got to 4172 last night in the middle of the night. And of course, the old Skype messages were popping off the hook saying, what's wrong? What's wrong? What's wrong? And I said, let me look at it. Just keep your stop in and go back to sleep. That's basically what I said because if you watch it darn screen, folks, it's going to drive you absolutely nuts. You put a trade on, forget about it, move on, do something else because no one cares whether you're buying or selling honestly. They don't. So just do your own thing and go in and do it. That's all you really have to do. Nothing more, nothing less. But that's what we were watching last night. But at the same time, people say, what are you doing? And I says, well, I'm watching the structure of the market in different areas because we have not just the Dow Jones and the S&P. We've got the NASDAQ and we've got the Russell and everything else. And what I was watching, of course, was look at the NASDAQ. Now, this was the NASDAQ doing last night. And you'll see the numbers that we were looking at. And of course, it's broken way more than 100 points off that high today, about 140, I believe. But anyway, you'll notice as we look at this, there was our 1.618 number, folks, within just a heartbeat of that. So I said, if we get above there, that means our stop at 4178 on the S&P would be valid. And then you don't have to worry about it. I mean, you don't have any control over it. These are just numbers. The patterns fail. Heck, we see them fail all the time. There's nothing unusual about that. But at the same time that I was watching the NASDAQ and the S&P, I was also watching the Dow Jones because it happened to be the weakest. Because I'm going to show you the reason why it was the weakest in just a second. Well, my interpretation, of course. But anyway, let's take a look at it. This is just a three-minute chart so I can see what was happening as the NASDAQ was making its high. The Dow Jones was making its high right up here. And also the S&P was making its high at 4172. This showed a perfect, you can see the beautiful three-drive to a top pattern, the multiple ABCDs coming in here. And of course, we've fallen way below all these numbers since that pattern was hit. But that's what we were watching. And so I knew that the stop was placed correctly. Now, when you're trading the S&P, you're trading something that's worth a quarter of a million dollars. So you have to risk at least 20 points nowadays if you're going to trade the E-mini professionally. That's 1,000 points. Once in a while, you can get in for a little less than that. But that's pretty much the ballgame of what you're looking at. So you can't get it any closer than that. You look at your daily, then you go down to your four-hour chart. You're at 30-minute, whatever it is, and get to the point where you think your risk control is going to be. And then you have something to actually put together. Now, at the same time, if you remember yesterday, I spent a lot of time on this because the same thing happened again last night with the Russell not even able to make a new high overnight. You'll notice here was the Russell from the high that we made back here in February on the 6th of February. All we could do yesterday was make a 382 retracement and then we came down and then we went up and we couldn't even make a high above that last night when the markets were going crazy. The Russell could get up on the day, but it couldn't take out the previous day's high. That was another sign of weakness. So, you know, if those of you are doing something like that to prepare yourself, then, you know, but, you know, see what's going on. We'll be able to see what's happening here. Now, let's do one other thing, and that was sent to us by our good friend, Rich Anderson, Anderson Capital Management. He follows, well, we follow these together, of course, because we've been doing this for so long. I mean, Rich has been in this business 54 years. I've been in business 62 years. I knew Rich when he was 19 starting this business, but look at this. This is the oversold index and overbought index for the S&P. Look how many times this thing has been pretty close to a spot to look at. Now, we got Stan Harley as our guest today and Stan said sometime in mid-April. As I recall, that there probably would be an intermediate top and he was looking for this rally and he certainly nailed it right to the cross. And I think it's sometime next week that he's looking at it. I'm looking for, you know, a shorter-term version of that, but that's pretty much what we're looking at as far as overbought and oversold. And, of course, with the Federal Reserve, oh, just a minute, hold on just a second for us. I have to send someone a message. Okay, all right, there we go. Let's move on here to the next one here that I wanted to talk to you about. The same thing, the same time that this was happening with the S&P, the Dow Jones, the Russell, and the NASDAQ, we were looking at the German DAX. This was the same chart that we were looking at yesterday, folks. And if you take a look at it, we were completing multiple ABCD patterns here in the German DAX and the same thing happened. You take out all of these highs with this double ABCD pattern that's right here, and that's what brought the reversal down in my opinion. But I'm just looking at pattern completion. That's really all I'm paying attention to, okay? So the next thing we're going to do is we're going to go across the channel and we're going to go look over, well, you know, across the channel in Germany, you take the train. You're going to take a look here at the E-mini. It's not an E-mini, it's the FTSE, which is the London stock. Hold on just a second here. My beeper is going off and it's a good beeper. So let's move on here to see what's moving on here. Anyway, you can see here the same thing we went up. We didn't quite make that 1.618, nor did we make just a minute, boys and girls. I have to make a technical thing here. I hope I'm doing it. Oh, this is a good one. I'll show you what it is in just a second here. But hold on just a minute. Let me get this up here for just a second. Anyway, as you can see here, the FTSE was the weaker of the indices because it couldn't even make new highs. And this is really weak compared to the others are way up here and this is way down here. You want to sell the weaker so this has already started to sell off quite a bit. The problem with the FTSE folks, it's a London exchange, but most of those stocks are foreign stocks. I mean, they got them from Spain, Portugal, Turkey, Israel. I mean, they're from all over. So there's very few London. There's some London stocks in there, but not very many. The DAX is the one that's equivalent to our S&P. That's a really good one to trade. But the FTSE, nah, not so much. I bring it up because we have so many friends and students over there that we chat with every day. So we find out what's going on with the things that are happening now. What we're going to do now, since we're talking about the folks over in London, we're going to do something really special for the next few minutes after we take this break. I'm going to break down a trade that is happening right now just like we did in the S&P. It's going to be the same thing, but it's not going to be the S&P. And we're going to take a look at it when we get back from the break because people will say, how do you ever keep track of this stuff? And I just like doing it, boys and girls. That's the bottom line. So we'll be right back and we're going to look at that British pound. Currencies, commodities, and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex report. Teddy Kegstad breaks down the Forex markets every Monday using his 30-plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures, Forex, stocks, and options. Teddy releases his weekly Tiger Forex report every Monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs, including the dollar index, the euro dollar, pound dollar, dollar Swiss, dollar yen, as well as many more. And he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market and the 30-year T-bonds as they both influence Forex markets tremendously. When you sign up for the Tiger Forex report, you also gain instant access to Teddy's 60-minute webinar archive. He just hosted Forex Strategies and Fundamentals What is Behind the Tiger Forex Report? For all the details and to start your 30-day Tiger Forex report subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN Educating Investors Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago and the student has now become the master. Steve won the prestigious Timer of the Year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019, finishing it number two for the year, an amazing accomplishment. Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn. And he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his Mastering Probability newsletter. Steve's award-winning newsletter, Mastering Probability, is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon. Sign up for Steve's market newsletter, Mastering Probability, and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars absolutely free. At TFNN, all our newsletters come with a 30-day money-back guarantee, so you have absolutely nothing to worry about. Visit TFNN.com and try Mastering Probability 30 Days Risk-Free Today. TFNN Educating Investors. Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help. Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years. A frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC, Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you. Tom's Daily Market Newsletter, Market Insights, is published every morning when the market's open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed. These newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio. Get Tom O'Brien's newsletter, Market Insights, today, and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money-back guarantee at TFNN.com. TFNN, Educating Investors. Okay, folks, I posted a chart of the British pound. This is a daily chart going over the past several months. But as you can see, if you're looking at this chart, and a blank chart, not knowing anything about patterns, it doesn't mean very much to you, but if you were to do some of the work, just like what we did with the E-mini S&P and cocoa and everything else that we watch, you'll see that there are some really significant things that are happening here in the British pound. So I'm going to bring this up. I'm going to show it to you in several different ways so that you can get a grasp of what we're looking at. First of all, this is a daily chart. So this is something that should be around. Hold on one second. Get it up here so you'll be able to see it. Now, as you look at this, you can see the bottom was made here. You can see this is what we call a double bottom. You can see the multiple A, B, C, D patterns that are forming, okay? But look on the upside. Now you have the same thing. You have A, start here folks. You have A, B, C, D, A, B, C, D, A, B, C, D, coming up to this area, which is 1, 25, 20. That's the area that we were looking to go short. Now it hit there. We backed off just a little bit, not very much, but the risk on this trade is very, very well-defined, much like it would be with the S&P. So what we're going to do now is we're going to look at it just a little bit closer and get up the numbers. You'll be able to see it just a little bit. I've got one more besides this. Hold on and you'll be able to put it together and see how we see multiple swings coming together. I've got one more to show you and then that'll be completion of this because we know that once we get to this level, right here, look at this folks. We have one A, B, C, D pattern right here. We have another A, B, C, D pattern right here and we have another A, B, C, D pattern right here. All of our culminating at this area of 1, 25, 30. So if we sell in that area, we know that it runs at $6.25 a tick. All we have to say is, oh, we raise a 50-point stop, so that's $300. Well, a move like this, a stop and a think, a move like this is several thousand dollars, well over $3,000. And by golly, you're only risking, you know, $300 to try to make something like that. I'm not saying it's going to go down there. I'm just saying that's what it looks like, you know, when it's finally completed and that's the name of the game. I've got one other one I believe. I think that covered it. Yeah, that covers it of what we're looking at. So that's what that British pound trade looks like. We've got some questions. We talked about that dynamite triangle, that, you know, just basically a flag formation. I don't want to get into that because I'm an ABCD type swing trader. They do have applications for people that are really active, you know, actively trading certain things. If you remember yesterday, we were watching the, because we're so bullish over in gold. I'll just get this up here to see it if I can get it one more time here. This happens to be the chart on the silver that we were watching and we'll get this up here. You'll see this was, we had, there was a winner here, a winner here, a winner here, a winner here. Then we had a loss right here. It went a little bit lower. Okay, then we had a winner here and then it ended up being breaking even. But you see, you're not going to win all the time. I hope you realize that. So what we did was we're following this because we have people that are involved with something like this. Here's an update of what happened. And if you like strong trending markets, boy, we've got some tools that are very, very helpful. And as you can see here, there was the loss if you remember. See, that basically a break even. But look at the one today, folks. Look at this one. This one, this was a monster. And so that's why, you know, they're powerful. Do they work all the time? No, they don't. I'm trying to get TFNN to maybe do a little webinar on it to show how to use dynamite triangles. Because with these wild markets that were happening, they work just as well on the downside as they do on the upside. We've seen that, you know, in both up and down markets. So they're working, if you were watching the S&P today, was doing the same type of thing on the way down. It was breaking and making new lows. And then finally we had this rally that we're into right now. We've come back about 200 points in the Dow Jones, which is actually a pretty substantial rally as we start to look at some of these things. Now, okay, now that's the basis of what we're looking at with the British pound. We've got everything. What did that take? Five minutes? So what you have to do is you have to learn, you know, to pick the highs and lows and how to figure out what the ABCD patterns are doing. That chart in the British pound, folks, is no different than this chart right here in the S&P 500. There it is right there. It's exactly the same chart. There are ABCDs everywhere. Now you have to learn how to count the timeframes, you know, so that you know the distance between your highs and your lows is equal in time and price. That gives you a really good indication that you're in a really good area. And there was one that we did last week that we talked about on this show. And that was cop, cocoa, hot chocolate, believe it or not. And I haven't traded this, but probably twice a year. But look at this beautiful pattern that we had here, like the S&P. You see the beautiful three drive to a top right here. There's drive one, there's drive two, there's drive three. You come down, you make a one, three, five pattern on the downside. Look at that perfect parallel channel, folks. That's right out of Gartley's book, page 249, Parallel Channels, AB Equal CD, also the formulas from Mandelbrot. You go up, there's your profit objective right up here. You can go short and guess what? It's probably going to come down to the lower part of this channel. Now the channel is starting to go higher now. So you realize that these markets, when they back off, sometimes they're only going to back off to a shorter retracement. And then you have something that you're able to really look at. So I hope that helps to understand, you know, what we're doing is we're setting up a trade. You start out with the daily chart. You move on to your four hour, you can do a four hour or a daily, then go to your 30 minute. If you want to get down to a smaller timeframe like eight minute or five minute to get to where you want to be. Now I wanted to bring to your attention one other one before we have stand on. This is one that was applicable today. And I wanted to bring this up and show you this is a gold market. Very similar. Now if you remember that Nasdaq thing that we're looking at, you see how gold today with this big, there was the buy. Remember we pointed that out perfect 61% retracement just right on the money. There was the original buy at the 382. There was your secondary buy, profits today. There was your 1.618 expansion at the high folks 2045. We're a little bit lower than that, but not much. And you can see that it was an ABCD pattern to the upside also. This was a tough one right here because you see that 382 right there. But look at that dynamite triangle right here last night folks. This morning at dynamite triangle, boom, risk is about four bucks and they ran four grand without even taking a deep breath. Those are the kind you really like to see. So got some active markets, which is great. You know, sometimes they're not active, but they're still great. And these are very, very active. And I'm thinking they're going to be continuing on because, you know, we got interest rates are actually dropping with bronze going up. And so when the Fed finally does come in and do their last rate cuts, it's going to be really interesting what happens after that. And I still believe that our banking system is still not out of the woods because these banking stocks have not done very much. And speaking of stocks, you remember our number that we were watching yesterday in the Apple. And we want to get this because this was another perfect 135 that we had here. And I did get above my magic number of 165 and 3 quarters. It got to 166 and 3 quarters, I believe. And then, of course, it started to sell off with the rest of the market. We're going to stay tuned. Stan Harley, the Harley stock market letter, don't miss it. We'll be right back. 877-927-6648. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To see more information on the Fibonacci sequence, please visit our website at www.fibonacci.com. And if you're interested, please visit our website at www.fibonacci.com. And don't miss out on the next great gold trade. Sign up today. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at www.tfnn.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to. And you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years' experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. www.tfnn.com. Educating investors. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis. And it's not just dry, tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at tfnn.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be. TFNN Educating Investors. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com. We're back folks and I believe we have Stan Harley, the Harley stock market letter in the house. Stan, how are you doing today? I'm just doing awesome, Larry. Good. Listen, I know you have some stuff on high translation, so I'm anxious to see what you have for us. So you want to tell us what we're looking at today? Absolutely. First chart I thought we'd take a look at involves the stock market. Okay. And first we have on the screen here is a weekly chart of the S&P 500 going back several years. And what I've done here is I've shown with purple lines each of the major troughs. And this forms a variable cycle that spans non-learning about 34 weeks, roughly eight months. And that cycle contracts and expands, but not only it spans about 34 weeks, eight months at last occurred in mid-October. And based on my analysis, this is once again a mid-gen. Very good. Okay. The next chart we have here is a daily chart of the S&P 500. And what I've done here is I've highlighted what I call the trading cycles. And each 34-week cycle, Larry, typically is posed a four separate and distinct, what I call a trading cycle. That if you took 34 weeks, eight months, spliced it in a four, you have four distinct cycles averaging about 40 to 42 trading days. That's not actually how it occurs in the world. They kind of expand and contract. But what this shows, this is the chart I ran off, just a few moments before our meeting, the first trading cycle off the October low of last year went 49 trading days, bottom to bottom. The second went 53 trading days and we're in the third trading cycle. Okay. What I try to do is I try to analyze this with my technicians magnifying glass. And what I want to look for is evidence of either right or left translation. That's something that I've talked about in the earlier presentations. And what I do there is I look for the crest of the high point in the cycle. And if it's to the right of the midpoint, that's what I call right translation. If it occurs to the left of the midpoint, that's called left translation. Right translation is associated with a rising market environment. Left translation is associated with a good point. From the January high of last year all the way into the October close all of the trading cycles, all four of them were characterized by left translation. Marketing up a lesser amount of time talked and asked and went down. The overboding things changed. The first trading cycle saw right translation. The second trading cycle, and this is where it gets a little interesting, the second trading cycle in the S&P of 500 saw right translation but not holding one trading day. So the crest occurred one trading day to the right of the midpoint. But I think it's helpful to look at more than just the S&P of 500. Here's a chart of the down industrial. A few moments ago as well. As the S&P we had left translation all the way to the October bottom. The first trading cycle to October 13th late December lows was characterized by right translation. Hey Stan, look at the second trading cycle. Hey Stan, I have a question for you now. I'd like for you to do if you could reset your mic because it's coming through a little scratchy here and if you'll reset the mic that might help and also tell the folks where that high translation came from. It was from Walt Brescher I believe, wasn't it? Here. How is that? Is that a little bit clearer? Oh, that's much better. Yes, that is much much better. There you go. The problem is computer issues on my end so I apologize. I'll have it fixed next time. Okay. But to your question I was originally alerted to this concept of translation by the late Walt Brescher. Yes. And I've studied the pattern and indeed it's a very valid one. Very, very valid. Surprisingly other technicians haven't glommed onto this but it's something I spent a lot of my time on because I'm a cycles guy. Me too. I like it. Most of the decisions are for most people. The reason they aren't is because cycles are variable and they're looking for the Holy Grail and they want to see a 80-day cycle come in at 80.00 days with no variation. Well, that's just not real world. So, most technicians kind of they go market cycles and sometimes they work, sometimes they don't so they pretty much discard them but when you approach this from a little bit of a more mathematical reality you understand the nuances and that's what I strive to do and I have been for years and that's what I strive to do when you and I talk here on the air. I take it a step further, not just the timing. I want to look at the structure. I want to look at the translation function. Do we have right? Do we have left? Or do we have center translation? So with the Dow, oh my gosh we've had a shift towards left translation. That means the next cycle is likely to convey lower highs, lower lows and that's what happened in the second one and indeed I think it's going to happen in the third and the fourth. Okay. So, I'll spare you all the math and charts here but what I did is I just summarized what I call the big five major indices. The big five for me are the SMP, the Dow, the NAS, the New York Conf, the transports and I got out my calculator and did pretty calculation on all of those. Summarized whether or not the prior trading cycle had exhibit either right, left or center translation. Here's the summary and as you can see with the naked eye we've got left translations then right or centered. What does that mean? Hmm. It means probably the market is peaked for the current 34 week cycle and we're going to head south. It seems. Very. Speaking of cycles, sometimes cycles do a pretty dandy job of coming in pretty close to on the market. Here's one that has it very much more than I think five trading days over the course of two years. Eighty trading days, a very common number that shows up in the markets, particularly the stock market, across multiple time frames but look how regular this has been. This has gone back two years and I've put all these dates into a trading. It's done a progression analysis and it says look for the next high in the vicinity of April the 10th and the standard deviation on that computation is three trading days. Wow. April 10th next week, there's a holiday on Friday. So what the analysis is suggesting is we should see a high coming up pretty soon. Three, four or five days either side of that date. Standard deviation computes three trading days so we're getting close. Stan, one of the listeners is asking from Cheyenne Wyoming is asking why do you pick trading days as opposed to calendar days? Is there a specific reason for that? Good question because with calendar days you've got holidays, you've got weekends. It's just not as clean. For me, I use trading days because that's how I count how every single day trades. Now it gets a little cumbersome, you've got to manage it in a spreadsheet to do the analysis. But I do that, I use the V-lookup works well. Okay, stay with us, we'll be right back with Stan Harley, the Harley stock market litter. Thanks Stan, you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices. Get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox every day. First time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. TFNN.com Educating Investors Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help. Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years. A frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC, Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you. Tom's Daily Market newsletter, Market Insights is published every morning when the markets open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed. These newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio. Get Tom O'Brien's newsletter Market Insights today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk free with our money back guarantee at TFNN.com TFNN. Educating Investors Biotech is booming, but for how long? Whether you think Biotech Bull has room to run or has run its course trade LABU or LABD Directions Daily S&P Biotech three times bull and bear ETFs. Visit Direction Investments.com slash Biotech today. An investor should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing. The prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares. To obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus please contact Direction Shares at 866-476-7523. The prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor Four Side Fund Services, LLC This program is brought to you by Vista Gold. Traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Folks speaking with Stan Harley, the Harley stock market letter. Stan, I really like that part about that high translation that brings back a lot of memories, my friend. Well, thank you. I reconnected the microphone. How's the clarity in my voice? Boy, that's a mucho better. This is spot on. You got the... This is just great. 100% better they're saying, so that's super. Some computer issues on my part that I will get corrected next time. I'm glad I never have those. I understand there was a problem seeing all the charts as well and I know we're going to be doing another segment later in the day and we will review them carefully again. I thought I'd go into interest rates and some related items there too. This next chart, Larry, is a chart of bond yields going back to the 1750s and while I cannot find a definitive cycle although post civil war there's a 40 year cycle in the data series but this is something that I find very interesting. All of the highs and lows, every one of them can be defined by the Lucas numbers. You can see I noted the time counts in years. The first high to high sequence was 44 years, that's Lucas number 47 is the operative function. The next one went 78 years that's Lucas 76 and the next one was 61 years, that's Lucas 29 times 2, 58 years. So you've heard me talk about this a lot with of course the stock market but the Lucas numbers are operable in the Treasury complex as well. Very, very interesting. I find Lucas numbers to be far more powerful than Fibonacci in terms of timing. Okay. You've been doing a really good job with the timing my friend so don't change anything. You said this rally was going to happen in April and by guys it's happened. Well, thank you. I have to keep my pencil sharpened and stay at it. This business never rests. Here's what you and I and all our viewers would pay if we were going to go out and get a 30 year mortgage for our house and oh my gosh, look what's happened in the last two years. Woo, painful. Look at that. Sure is. Surprised you're even selling anything. Well interestingly enough this little volcano we've seen in interest rates has had effect on the next chart. Let's look at home prices. This is the case Schiller data series. I pull this from the US government red website and plot it in a spreadsheet. The blue lines are the monthly price bars that are reported by the US government reported by case Schiller. I've also added in red an 18 month moving average. This is the national index and there are 20 various regional indices and 10 major metropolitan area indices in addition to the national index they all exhibit the same wave form that you're seeing here but the amplitudes can vary typically out west the amplitudes are a little bit more and in the southern region and eastern United States a little bit less volatile. How is it where you are Stan? You live in New Jersey right? I'm in New Jersey they're not as volatile as they are out west this next chart is close to the home where you are this is the Los Angeles area index and the Phoenix index looks just like this of which you are a part I used to live there as well and I also live in Southern California but as you can see this has got the same exact same wave form as the national index and you can think of housing just like the stock market I mean the Dow, the S&P, the NASDAQ the New York composite the national index is kind of like the New York composite and various sectors of the housing market are sort of like the various sectors of the stock market think of it the same way well we have cycle highs and lows and this can be measured and analyzed and plotted and I do a regression analysis of the data I found there's about a 63 to 64 month cycle in home prices what I call changing trend cycles so it could be a high or a low but that is a very very regular recurring cycle it lasts peak, peak last year home prices are heading south and what I noted in the past every time the monthly bars have crossed the 18 month moving average a buy sell, a buy signal or a sell signal has been rendered there was a fake out a little bit in 2009 2010 but nevertheless generally speaking when the monthly bars cross either to the upside or the downside you need to get a pull or you get a buy signal or you get a sell signal and look what's happening right now the last day just came out a few days ago and we are now crossing we read 18 month moving average and that is highly suggestive of the sell signal right now in real estate and I think it's out those are great I just I'd love seeing these because it brings back so many memories when we were since folks those I've known stand for 40 years and we were we didn't even have we didn't have computer charts we got our charts from commodity perspective you it was a lot different when you had to draw your own lines on and do your own calculations of moving averages that's for sure I mean we live in just it's certainly in the career field that you and I are in we couldn't be in better times but the information we have available the charting sharing real time data is just it really is it's just totally mind boggling that's the actual word you want to use I don't know if you know this or not Stan but you know Walt Bresser was one of the reasons why we have desktop and all this data and stuff and he was one of the original guys along with Tim Slater down a compi track that started that back in 80 81 82 and it came out in 83 and look at where we are now 50 years later and holy cow my gosh it's it's really it's really amazing and I started compi track and then a lot of well the MACD that they put in there kind of the stock MACD numbers were 1226 9 and you often see people using that even to this day yeah that's for sure and Walt Bresser a brilliant man I personally he was a great friend and I sure he's a great friend of what he was well well that's why I live in Tucson because he lived here he used to come to visit him and I liked it so much I moved here and then he moved to Mexico well you know interesting you see a lot of people in the 70s 80s 90s the entire southwestern the United States from Los Angeles to Tucson in my experience had a overwhelming plethora of really smart market technicians I don't know why that was but I found that the southwestern part of the USA had the preponderance of some of the best talent this business has ever seen well that's certainly been my experience too yeah right I used to carry their bags I mean that's for sure hey listen we're going to have you on again in the second segment of the next hour okay so we'll chat some more about some of these things and I wanted to ask you a couple other questions about yeah I know we will hey thanks for joining us Stan and we'll be back with you in about 50 minutes or oh let's see wait to be 40 minutes so we'll see you then okay okay Stan Harley folks he'll be back at the next segment of the show we'll pay a few bills now we'll be right back 877 9276648 if you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try Tommy O'Brien delivers options about equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk for all the details and to start your subscription today visit the front page of TFNN.com TFNN Educating Investors you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right? Like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com the opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox every day first time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up TFNN.com Educating Investors everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence this mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market to stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com when you subscribe you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis after all he's got 45 years experience as a day trader Larry will also provide daily charts, videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time first time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today TFNN.com Educating Investors TFNN.com TFNN has launched the Tiger's Den hosted at Discord TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours the Tiger's Den available to all tigers and tigers for just $1 for the year there's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders just visit TFNN.com don't forget you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to TFNN.com then hit watch Tiger TV that's TFNN.com then hit watch Tiger TV okay folks I posted the chart of the Dow Jones industrial average from the high that we made back in January it was December the 18th right before Christmas you'll see that big spike that we have here and then if you'll notice that the 61% retracement of that whole move came in at 33,846 well the high last night was 83,880 so it went 30 pips above it of course it's backed off 350 points from that level so that would definitely after hitting it two days in a row yesterday we missed it by 10 points last night we went down to the point where we missed it by a little bit during that other pattern that I had posted for you earlier showing you what was happening on the 15 minute I think that was an 8 minute chart showing you how the patterns were lining up because that's what you do is you get down to the point where you're watching for something good to happen you go down to a smaller time frame looking at it microscopically to get your risk down because when these patterns fail and they do fail at a time but not many golfers win 66% of the games anyway let's keep an eye on this one because if we ever close above that number and I mean look like we were going to do it last night for sure and yet boy golly something happened and you know the market moved down and now it's starting to say well maybe this is very important on the second part of the show that I'll be doing shortly here in the next 10 minutes I want to be looking at the bank stocks folks because it's not over there I mean we've had this huge rally in the stock market I mean we've gone you know bonkers well just to give you an example if you remember I pointed this out to us that we had not seen anything like this this was just back on the 28th if you remember we had that monster update and when we had something like that happen you want to see what the outlier is and as you can see here when you S&P is on the left right here and I'll be back in just a little bit 877-927-6648