 Dobrodoviso, da se njih ima. Ovo ječen, da so tudi izvajno. Prejsem zvon, da so se predstavili inpakovati vsega vsega vsega vsega integracije na vsega vsega vsega vsega vsega grafovat. Vsega vsega gdjeva je, Kaj je Alessia Migini, vsi uvijet za Universtvo vsega vsega pijednje in Italia. Vsega vsega grafa po vsega iz zelo, da sem je oddaj, kar se je odpočen, da so vsega vsega vsega načo, at a more general level, the increasing integration, economic integration between Africa and other developing countries, this kind of so-called South-South cooperation was already bringing some impact on Africa and the host economies. Then we tried to figure out what was based on poor data availability for the moment, what was one channel, at least at the macro level that we could examine, and then we moved our research question to one of the main bottlenecks to African development as has been outlined during this morning plenary by Ben Ndulu, which is basically the failure of many African countries to upgrade their export sector and to move towards this process of structural transformation, which is pretty much in need to go faster, at least in economic growth. To do these African countries has been outlined that should profit, should take advantage from rising external flows, much of which are now coming also from non-traditional sources, which are basically, as we know, there is much evidence on the BRICS countries investing and providing other forms of external flows to Africa on a larger scale, but also other less known cases of some interest in this analysis. Basically, what I'm going to present today is preliminary results from this paper. This is the structure of the presentation. I will just try to go quite fast over the first two points, which is basically the theoretical background of the paper to move fastly to the design of the model and the empirical analysis and discuss the result moving to some preliminary conclusions. The framework for our paper is basically this literature, which is based on the old idea that trade is an engine of economic growth for developing countries and that country specialization, that economic growth is not neutral to the country specialization basically. Since then, many much literature has been published on the idea that in order to grow faster, to grow more, developing countries need to undertake a process of structural transformation, either at the broader level, moving from agriculture to manufacturing in particular, but also within manufacturing structural transformation, moving so from low-tech, labor-intensive kind of production to higher, medium and higher technology once. More recent, this kind of literature has been as evolved towards more sophisticated measure of a country export performance, so we have indeed the export sophistication index that has been published created by Hausmann and colleagues, which basically show that what you export matters just to paraphrasi paper by Denis Rodrik, which show basically the country with a more sophisticated export structure, are likely to grow more than others, or yet more sophisticated this product space, which was produced by Dalgo and colleagues, which basically map the structure of the economies from different countries in the world and put the kind of specialization at either the center or the periphery of the product space, affirming that the countries whose productive structures are the center of the product space so where the linkages between different kind of productions are more dense, the likelihood to grow faster are higher than for countries like many Africans, and then I will go, which export few products which are at the periphery of the product space and actually the natural resources. All these literature is basically built on the basis that, as I told at the beginning, these export sophistication, diversification and upgrading in general contributes to economic development in a variety of ways. However, all the papers that have tried to approach this issue with respect to Africa have noticed that African countries are kind of stuck in a sort of low diversification and low upgrading trap. Either at different level of disaggregation these are different kind of studies. So basically the more pessimistic say that it's very difficult for African countries based on what is the current economic structure to move farther in their export upgrading. I never say that indeed it's possible and that the increasing interaction with other developing countries whose production structures are closer in terms of technology to those of African economies could indeed contribute to help African countries to escape these sort of new traps, basically. Indeed theoretical level in particular at the endogenous growth theory has much emphasized in the past and also now that external flows in the form of trade and foreign direct investment in particular are sources of knowledge and competencies, especially when they flow from more developed to less developed countries, which can on the one hand in the case of trade get easier access to inputs and machineries and have the opportunity to imitate the new technologies coming from third countries and on the other entering global supply chain or local supply chains can increase the possibility to have incremental innovation since the production process when moves to low wage settings becomes standardized to the country specific conditions, basically. This is theoretical literature. Another point that has been emphasized by this literature on the transfer of technology and competencies to trade is that the source of the trade flows, the import flows, the export flows, matters in determining the likely impact that this can have on us country development. So, basically, even if at the more theoretical level, Greenaway and Miller in 1990 outlined that the lower is the technology gap, the better should be the opportunity to get spillovers from importing from other countries. Evident so far says that it's indeed North-South rather than South-South trade flows that matter the most in terms of spillover effect, but the paper by Schiff & Wang in 2006 does not take into account the rise, the tremendous rise of South-South trade flows that happens in the last 5, 10 years. On the other hand, the other important and overstudied probably a channel of technology to developing countries is foreign direct investment, a large literature which indeed emphasize the developmental impact of foreign direct investment, including among the others on the productive performance of the host economies or the local economies, mostly because, generally, FTI brings new technologies, ideas and the capacities, again, to imitate foreign producers on the one hand and on the other hand, foreign multinationals may, themselves, engage in the production of new and more sophisticated goods that are then re-exported. Also, in this case, recent emphasis is made on the fact that South-South FTI, driven by a smaller technology gap, as emphasized by Gelb and by Lipsi and Seaholm in 2011, can probably contribute more to the export upgrading of developing countries, especially if in cases like those that we know well from originating from China and other big emerging economies, these investments are also accompanied by the construction of the improvements in infrastructures, for instance. So, what we do in this paper is basically to estimate the impact of external flows, which are basically divided on whether they come from northern countries, which are basically the high-income OECD countries or from southern countries, which are all the rest of the trading and investor partners of African economies. We do this on the capacity to upgrade the export structure and we measure this upgrade towards two different indicators, the first is an export diversification index at the extensive margin, which is calculated as an inverse of the FINDAL index, based on a database which collects information at the product level at six-digit, which is then re-aggregated at the sectoral level, at the two-digit level of the easy classification. This is done to match our data on foreign direct investment, which are available at the sectoral level, but only up to the two-digit classification. Just a note of caution about these FTI data. The FTI data in particular comes from the FTI market's database, which records product level information and Greenfield FTI only. The only concern of this database, which allows to measure investment at the sectoral level, is that capital flows are badly recorded and many of them are estimated. So in order to avoid mispecification, rather than using the total flows at the sectoral level, we use the number of investments originating from the different sources at any couple of African exporters, sector, and year. The other measure of export upgrading is common measure in this studies focusing on export sophistication, which is the unit value of export, which is computed as a weighted average of export flows at the six-digit level, with the ways being the market share that every African country has towards the partner country. At the moment, we are basically using common specification to both measures, which makes export upgrading being dependent on a series of different variables, including the per capita GDP, the exchange rate, real exchange rate, the investment over GDP, inflation, the share of natural resources over total exports, terms of trade, political stability from the world governance indicators, variable measuring whether a country is or not landlocked, and then our variables of interest, which are total imports, which is further divided into imports from the north and imports from the south, and the total FTI, which is further developed as FTI from the north and FTI from the south. Our basic interest is understanding what are the differences between the divisions of the last two variables. In order to do this, we adopt three different approaches for our main specification, where we measure the impact of the external flows on the export diversification index. We adopt system GMM estimator based on Araliano Bond. Since we, based on the literature, we consider export diversification as a function among the others of its level. So to reduce the concern of the so-called dynamic panel bias and other concern of endogeneity of independent variables, independent variables, we run GMM estimator. In order to get more inside information on how this relation, the pattern of the relation goes, we also employ quantil regression analysis. I will just, then we will go more in details and show you the results. And for the model of export unit values, we estimate panel fixed effect estimators with country sector fixed effect. These are just the summary of the main results, excluding our variables of interest. We find that export diversification of African economies depends on their lagged levels, but we find that this dependency is less relevant than in other studies and this could be due to at the larger level of disaggregation, but we find also that the dependency is stronger in the primary sector. We find, as expected, that more developed countries have export structure more diversified, that a depreciation making the export more convenient helps firm diversify their export, especially in the manufacturing sector. Again, in the manufacturing sector we find that domestic investments discourage diversification because probably they are not targeted to the industrial sector, that political stability matter and more stable context favor export diversification, while, as expected, countries with high dependence on the export of natural resources are less able to diversify, especially within the manufacturing sector. This is the main output of the paper. The first results I have just shortly outlined in the previous slide. I would like to focus now on our main results. As you can see, basically we don't really find very much significance in the coefficients of our variables of interest. Basically we find that importing from the south increases export diversification in all sectors and more specifically in the manufacturing the same happens for FTI from the north and nothing happens from FTI from the south. Then we ask whether this relation holds also when we look more specifically into the manufacturing sector. Then in using the manufacturing sector as a benchmark we basically reclassified the manufacturing sector according to the level of technology of the goods which are produced and find that for low-tech industries we find a strong and significant positive impact on exports diversification from either imports from other southern economies and FTI from other southern economies. Similarly, we find that when we create small groups according to the similarity of the production process we find that FTI from the south seem to foster export diversification also in a stronger way in resource-based and labor-intensive sectors, such as the manufacturing and the processing of agricultural products, this agrifood production we were talking also this morning and interestingly also in the cluster including textiles, aparel and later products, sorry. On the other end, importing from the south seems to be more beneficial to expand the number of products within more medium-high-tech sectors such as the machinery and equipment and motor vehicles and transport equipment. Investment from the north on the other end as well as importing from the north seems to help more diversification within the processing of natural resource sector. I told you, we look at quantile regression analysis because we would like to see whether the relation holds at all the stages of export diversification or whether countries which are at the top of the export diversification ladder basically performs better or not respect to the effect of the external flows. As you can see, what we noticed very short is that the last two figures at the bottom, FTI from OECD which is the north and non-OECD which is the south have a stronger impact on countries at the top of the distribution ladder whereas imports seem to affect more countries which are at the bottom meaning that imports help countries to upgrade for new products while FTI seems to help more countries to upgrade when at least some production structure some previous starting of diversification process exist. I just close discussing just the last slide I skipped the one on export that we find that there is indeed an impact which is strongly dependent on the kind of flow coming weather trade of FTI from the origin of the partner country for the index considered for export upgrading and also along the diversification ladder basically we showed that the progress recorded in economies in the last few years could also be in terms for instance of FTI does not depend only from the foreign ownership of firms but the nationality of the owners can also contribute more or less as we saw in strategic sectors to increasing export upgrading and productivity in African countries.