 In the misguided, confusing, and potentially illogical words of Yogi Berra, it is deja vu all over again for tonight because we have a situation where we have a no-brainer, top pitcher in a good matchup who is going to be the shock of tonight. The problem is that guy has some weather concerns. We got to decide, do we go back to that well and risk a postponement like last night or do we ignore Zach Wheeler and look elsewhere? I don't know. So it's going to be a lot of fun. Let's get set for today's slate of MLB DFS. This is the FanDuel Live Q&A right here on the FanDuel YouTube, Twitch, Facebook and Twitter channels. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com. Here to take your questions on air for the next 25 minutes, 30 minutes, I should say to get you set for today's slate of MLB DFS. As always, after me, Erin Dolan will swing by and talk about game number two of the NBA finals and also John Sheeran of FanDuel Sportsbook and a swing by and talk with her as well. So that should be a whole lot of fun. That is going to be about 430 today. So make sure you stay tuned for that and get those betting questions ready for Erin and John at 430. But for right now, let's talk some MLB DFS and start things off with Jackie on Twitch. Good afternoon to you and everyone else tuning in. Good afternoon to you, Jackie, as well. Hope that last night was kinder to you for your Dinger Tuesday than it was to me. DJ, Ryu or Garcia? So this is Hun Jin Ryu or Luis Garcia to me. I think you kind of have to go Garcia. I'm not super into Garcia personally because the match is pretty tough with the with the athletics. So I'm not actively seeking him out. The problem is I just can't go Ryu. The form for Ryu is really bad. The numbers on the sheet that I have are over his past four starts. He has a 12 percent strikeout rate, a 5.44 skill, interactive era. And that's not necessarily good. And he's also facing the Orioles. Orioles actually pretty good against lefties. One on seven WRC plus decent amount of power, not a lot of strikeouts. Easily the best hitting situation on the slate for today. So I actually would choose to stack against Ryu over using as a picture. And that could be stupid, probably a stupid. I've made a lot of stupid plays before. So not a huge deviation there. That's fine for me. But I think that that's the better way to play things here is to stack against Ryu rather than use them as a picture. So it's just those two choices. I would go with Luis Garcia for today. DJ is saying that the weather in Chicago is not or is not going to play. He says the Cubs will not play. It's nasty here, but not postponed yet. I'm looking at dark sky weather. And this is the weather in Wrigleyville as of right now. And it looks like they're expecting the rain to go away. Presid probabilities are pretty low throughout the night. This is according to dark sky weather. I will say that this morning, Kevin Roth of Enroto Grinder said that this was definitely a little bit concerning. It looks like he saw some storms coming earlier on. We will see if this winds up playing. What I would do is defer to Kevin. Again, he's the actual meteorologist. I'm not I would check out what he says in his update at around 530 or so. Kevin Roth WX on Twitter to get an idea of what he thinks for today. As of right now, I think we probably are good to go because dark sky weather sees things coming out around Wrigleyville for today. So as of right now, I'm expecting that game to be good, but we shall see what he says later on again. Trust him over me every single time. Kyle, do you like a value stack around 3K and under of the Dodgers for tonight? So both the Dodgers and the Marlins are doing a bullpen game for today. And both those bullpens are actually pretty good. Let's take it to Ross Detweiler here because he is the announced starter for today for the Marlins. And it will be Jake Reed, former Minnesota twins starting for the Dodgers for today. Detweiler probably going to go about knitting, but so far this year he's been pretty good. So they're throwing out a decent pitcher to start off the game. Overall, their bullpen this year or the active roster bullpen has a 3.20 ERA, 24% strikeout rate, good, bad at ball numbers. So I'm okay being lower on the Dodgers. I'm also okay being lower on the Marlins because the Dodgers bullpen is pretty good. Jake Reed, I don't think we have a huge sample on Jake Reed thus far. Pretty sure he just got called up pretty recently, but either way, the bullpen for the Dodgers, very good, not one I want to stack again. So I'm pretty much okay ignoring that game for the most part, not getting super into either side there. Mateo, glad I didn't use DeGrom and Cash with my Padres. Mateo, you should have warned us. Should have gotten me off there as well. Going back to the Padres, but I need at least two bats in my utility spot at the $27 salary point. Who do you like? Okay, so we're looking for a one-off here around $2,700. I'm guessing it's going to wind up being a Mariner or an Oriole because both those options are lower salaried. I think that they've got a decent amount of upside for today. Kevin Vigio, I believe, is 28, so we can't quite get to him. Let me check to make sure. Yeah, Vigio is $2,200, so we can't get to him. If you can make that work, Mateo, I'd go there. Austin Hayes, pretty good option. Probably going to bat second, I would assume. For the Orioles for today, he has some power at a good spot in the order, puts the ball in the air, good weather like him. Jake Fraley, it has as projected to bat eighth. I disagree with that. It'll probably bat fifth or so if I had to guess. $2,700 has some power, has some speed. I like that for sure. So Fraley and Hayes are probably the first guys I'd be looking to there as being high upside batters in the $2,700 range and on stacks that I like as well. So those are probably the top two options I give you, Mateo. If you can't get to Vigio at $2,800, I would say Fraley and then Hayes are going to be the guy sent out most to me. Jackie, it was kinder to me, but not in a winning sense. Just didn't lose as much. Yeah, so that's better. Not losing as much as a victory sometimes. That's good. Julius over on Facebook, Harper or Yastremski? In general, it's going to be Bryce Harper facing Alec Mills. And we also have the weather situation there and Mills, a guy who does get a lot of ground balls. The problem is I don't want to overthink it and I don't want to ignore Bryce Harper when it's compared to Yastremski. Yastremski is very good. The Bryce Harper is disgusting. So if I'm choosing straight up between those two guys, give me Bryce Harper there. Although I will say I am more inclined to stack the Giants than to stack the Phillies for today. Jackie threw down $20 when the Braes went down today. So they pulled this win out of a nice little win. Good, like it. Let's go Braes, get Jackie some money over there on Twitch. DJ, he likes Yaz and Julius likes Yastremski as well. So they've done an island with Bryce Harper for today. Okay, Jackie, thoughts on the Red Sox lineup for today? They are not in the main slate. So I've not done a lot of research on that Red Sox game facing off with Andrew Heaney and let's see here. The lineup looks like pretty similar to what I would expect versus a lefty. So I would say whatever your expectations for the Red Sox keep them equal because that is in line with what I was expecting. Michael, is your stack hierarchy still Toronto, Baltimore and Seattle? As of right now, yes, because I haven't really seen a lot to really convince me to go elsewhere. I think the Giants are there. I think that they're not. I think that I'd put the Mariners firmly above them, but I think the Giants are at least in that same tier just because the downside of the Giants is always Park Factor. But if you look at for today, there's really only one good park on the slate from a hitting perspective and that's out in Baltimore. So the downsides, the opportunity cost in stacking in San Francisco is lower than what it usually is. So that's what I'd say there, Michael. I would say the Giants are in that tier. So it's kind of a tier of four for today with the three listed Toronto, Baltimore, Seattle, and then the Giants being in there as well. Jackie, some figure out how to use my fan dual points. If it's for the DFS side of things, you can go over here and scroll down to the enter with blank fan dual points. That's based on the the what's it called entry fee, the entry fee associated with the contest. You can enter with fan dual points there. So hopefully that helps to scroll down and find that as opposed to paying with cash for that one. DJ is Kikuchi worth a look at all against Domingo Arman. I think that Kikuchi is not totally out of play for today. The reason I couldn't quite get there is because the Yankees are pretty solid. They have a middling strikeout rate of 24% versus lefties and middling WRC plus at 100 Kikuchi. The numbers I have here are over his past four starts and Clinton actually asked about Kikuchi too. So this is pertinent for both of you on that one. I think that Kikuchi would probably be number four from a pitching perspective for me for today. It's Zach Wheeler number one by a wide, wide, wide margin. I'll go Alex Wood to Chris Paddock three. But then if I were to pick a fourth pitcher would be Yusuke Kikuchi. So if your process led you to Kikuchi, I'm okay with it. And I think that it does make sense. So Clinton and DJ, I am okay with Yusuke Kikuchi for today personally. It's Dr. Jerry over on Facebook. Good day, Jim. How do you rate these? Colorado, Arizona, Dodgers, Miami. If you were to play any and who is your favorite for today? I'm probably not going to stack any of them. The reasoning for not stacking the Rockies or the Diamondbacks is that they're both bad. And I have other bad teams and better matchups I can use. Antonio Censatella has been getting a little bit better recently. This is over his past four starts or sorry, eight starts with more four seed fastballs. His skill and track to be our race is 3.97. He has a 17% striking rate, which first Censatella is a lot higher than his baseline 41 or sorry, a 25% fly ball rate allowed and he's facing a bad team. So not super in Arizona. Also the roof is closed. Chase yield for today. So that's going to lower expectations or both offenses. The Rockies I think are palatable facing a Mirth of Castellanos. I'm not sure what Castellanos is going to do because he has been working like his one appearance was from the bullpen. So I guess there's a couple appearances, but like in triple A's numbers weren't good. So I'd rather stack the Rockies there Jerry than the Diamondbacks. The reason I'm not super jazzed to stack the Rockies is that they are hideous outside of course field like they're bad in general, but they're especially bad outside of course field. Again, the roof is closed. So Rockies tough for me to get to, but I would prefer them over the Diamondbacks. The Dodgers and the Marlins again, not super enthused there because of the bullpen situations. I think both those bullpens are pretty good. So the value in a bullpen game is lower than it would be otherwise. So to me, if I had to pick one probably going to Rockies, but none of those teams super high my list for today. Let's talk to Emmanuel. I need to catch her first base at $3,100 or less. Okay. Let's go over here to Fandall pull up catcher slash first base scroll down to $3,100. Okay. Lea Stiaz. No, Christian Walker. Meh, Kronoworth facing a lefty and Patrick Corbin posies banged up. Actually, probably if he plays it might want to be Buster Posey didn't play yesterday, but it sounds like it's not an injury. They'll keep out super long poses have been awesome this year. So I could get behind that potentially trying to see there's nothing else here that stands out from a lower salary perspective. Ryan Mountcastle is $2,900. I actually do like him a pretty decent amount just because I like that stack for the Orioles. So I think that Mountcastle works. Luke Void is facing Kikuchi. If Torrens plays, he'd work as well. So I think that if we're looking for a catcher slash first base of $31 or lower, I would say I would circle probably Mountcastle because I'm very likely to be stacking that team. But also the other one to consider for me would be Buster Posey if he's able to get back in there for today. Kyle, what picture are you going to if wheelers off the table? It's either paddock or wood. I'm leaning towards wood right now just because wood has been steadier over the larger sample. Better park factor for today too. Facing the Cardinals, not a super imposing team overall. Better against lefties for sure. So that does make it worse and it would be if wood were a righty, but it's not a super imposing matchup. So I think that wood is going to be number one outside of Wheeler for me. Paddock too. Paddock got blasted when I used him against Arizona two starts ago, but it's been very good outside of that. So wood number one, paddock two and then Kikuchi would be a consideration for me as well as someone I would use there. Michael, okay. So the Toronto lineup is out and we had Julius asking about the Blue Jays stack for today. Julius, I am on board. Let's go through this lineup now. It's out. Thank you, Michael, for letting me know that that one was out. Marcus Semyon, Bichette, Guerrero, Springer. This is exactly what was expected. This is good. This is good. This is actually what we want here for the Blue Jays. So let's go over here to Fanduil. We're going to plug in Zach Wheeler and we're going to go to Biggio at second base. Probably going to be the first guy. I want to lock in just because he's like kind of the one guy who's not breaking the bank for you on this team. He's batting seventh. That's not super high, but I am okay with that just because I want access to this team. And even if it does come from the seven hole, that's still better than we'll be looking for elsewhere. So we've got that and let's check back at the lineup over here. Okay. So we have Tioscar batting fifth, Gritchick batting sixth numbers versus righties for this year. Gritchick is at a 185 ice. That's actually pretty good. So I think the Gritchick will be the second guy we'll plug in here does mean we're using the seven and eight guys as like kind of the building blocks of the stack. Someone's at the door apparently no one's ever at the door. That's like the third time I've heard the doorbell and like the two years over this house anyway. Biggio and Gritchick. I would say the two quasi salary savers here within this stack and then you're looking at what you want to prioritize outside of that. Obviously you can get to Vlad Guerrero Jr. Do it. You want to get there whenever you can. But let's assume that that's tougher. I would say Marcus Semi and is the number two priority on this team to 57 ISO versus righties. 46% fly ball rate. He steals some bases. He's disgusting across the board. $4,200 is a lot and it is higher than what Boba shed is at for today. He is $3900 but I think that's worth it. $3 gap between the two. Puppy is very excited. There's someone at the door. But I would say that that salary gap is not big enough given the count or the like upside gap between Semi and Bishat. So to me I would say go Semi in second among the studs after Vlad Guerrero Jr. Vlad's 46. So let's just see 2275. Okay. So we're probably not going to make that work. You're probably choosing one of the studs here. I would say a tail scar at $3,400 definitely works too. So there you go that. George Springer hitting the ball pretty hard recently. So I think that all these guys work. Puppy is very distressed that there's someone at the door. But she'll be fine. She's good. So I would say honestly anyone but if we're ranking out prioritizations on this team I would say Visio and Gritchick for the salary and a Wheeler lineup. If salary is no object I would say Vlad won Semi into probably George Springer number three and then I would go with Bishat for tail scar five or actually Gritchick five tail scar six and then Visio seven and salary is no object. They're hoping that helps to the Blue Jays for today. Jackie current the doctor's office for my grandma's appointments meant to wait and watch the playback after the stream. So good luck Jackie hope it goes well. Thank you for tuning in. DJ is Houston or Oakland a better stack stack the Cardinals or Giants don't stack the Cardinals. I like what a decent amounts don't go there would not stack the Astros sorry the AIDS because they face this Garcia not really into the Astros against John Manaya pretty good pitcher. Obviously they are tremendous versus lefties like does change things for sure but I'm not really into either side of that game personally just because the pictures there are both pretty good. I would stack the Giants though the Giants are definitely the number one stack of those options listed and kind of the one team I'm looking for for today. Let's talk to Patrick over on Facebook. Would you play Corbin playing in San Diego. Okay. So Patrick Corbin you're facing the Padres the numbers on Corbin over his past four starts with you are forcing fastballs 3.8 to skill interactive you are raised not bad but a lot of that's because his walk rate is so low at 3% 21% strikeout rates decent batted ball numbers the Padres definitely better versus lefties and versus righties. So I wouldn't actively look to stack against Corbin I think that like you we could see people potentially going to San Diego for today. I probably will not be one of those people just because I think that Corbin's been decent enough recently obviously the results are not great but I also don't see enough here to feel great about using Corbin's a pitcher. So I don't think it's an off the wall consideration given that he has gotten some strikeouts in this time but he won't be on my list personally just because the strikeouts recently haven't been quite high enough. Let's go to DJ. Would you use mild straw as one of your homerun challenge players absolutely nuts. I'm guessing this was a joke. So no I would not use mild straws on my homerun challenge players we see I see Jerry is giving a grand slam call for the bonus over on Fandle Cody Bellinger and a possible but I say he homers as well Peralta. Okay. So he's on Cody Bellinger for today and I'm assuming David Peralta most likely for Arizona. Let's go through some homerun picks for today the homerun picks from the podcast this morning where George Springer and Jake Fraley George Springer was a boring one because it's a match with Matt Harvey so everyone's going to want to go there. It's not contrarian it's not out there or anything. I just think it's you know a logical pick for today and I felt like going Vlad was like too boring so I didn't pick Vlad as my homerun call but George Springer is my boring homerun call facing Matt Harvey hitting the ball pretty well recently so we'll go George Springer for one. Jake Fraley is because I think he's really good but also because Domingo Armand has been slipping up here a bit recently. This is over his past six starts with more forcing fastballs. His foreseamer is not ideal. It's not a great pitch for him but he's using it more potentially because of the sticky stuff discussion can't get a grip on his off speed stuff whatever it may be either way the numbers of past sticks starts for Armand not ideal 4.94 skill interactive ER a lot of fly balls lot of hard contacts so for funsies I like Jake Fraley for tonight if we're looking homerun challenge enough to be as weird with your picks. So pull up the I don't really want to use a giant I guess for a homerun challenge type thing. I would say that like a Ryan Mountcastle or Trey Mancini type might make a lot of sense Mancini specifically get trying to ramp up for the homerun derby that he's got. So I think that if you want to use someone in the in the homerun challenge was a bit different but also makes a lot of sense Trey Mancini is probably that guy. So we'll go Springer Mancini and we'll keep Jake Fraley in there for funsies because again I think he's fun. So we'll go with those guys for some homerun calls for today. DJ I know how bad the Cubs are lately being a Cub fan is Travis Jankowski with a look since he is in the lineup. Okay. So the Cubs are facing Zach Wheeler. No, I would not. Jack with Zach Wheeler is tremendous good across the board 2.73 skill interactive ERA does not let apart contact. I would not use any Cubs for today. Michael would you prioritize lefties on San Francisco for tonight? Okay. So let's sometimes a lineup is out crazy early just refresh really quick to make sure it's not. Okay. So it's not but let's go through here. Check out the projected lineup here for the Giants and see what we should be cooking with for this one. Oh, sorry DJ. So you were talking about Jankowski for the Phillies my bad. I totally glossed over that. But yeah, facing Alec Mills guy who does suppress our contact. So I probably would not be there necessarily just because like if you're looking at him for a one-off Jankowski probably not going to the best upside because Mills does such a good job of suppressing our contact. So I wouldn't be looking at the Phillies for one-off outside of like Harper if you had the salary but they're probably better said to get to. So it's not totally off the wall but you know I wouldn't be getting there myself. Okay. Let's go back to the lefties here for San Francisco. All these guys have super low salary. So that's pretty fun. The one thing that to consider here with the with the Giants is we have to make sure it's going to be a guy who is going to stay in there for the entire game not get taken out due to a pinch hitter and stuff like that because they are very willing to take guys out for those reasons. Let's pull up the Giants numbers versus righties this year and they've obviously been tremendous across the board. So let's see who we should prioritize for today. Out there against Johan Obieto. So we got Yastremski if we're doing the projecting line up Yastremski Dickerson Posey Wade batting sixth most likely. Okay. And then we'll see if Posey does want to being in there. Okay. Brandon Crawford Yastremski those are great numbers. No belt obviously. Doug is a 221. So because the salaries are all pretty low I would say you should have the flexibility to kind of use whoever you want here. Dickerson let's check out Dickerson sometimes does leave for pinch hitters. It's not been as bad with all the injuries piling up. So I'm not super concerned about that but it's at least worth noting that's a consideration for today. Okay. Let's go with Crawford one because he feels shortstop. If I don't have utility selected we'll go Crawford one. Let's go with Yastremski to number three. I would like to get to Buster Posey. I know he's not a lefty as you had mentioned but I do think that if he's in there if he plays which is a concern or a question mark right now I would say he'd be number three for me despite the fact he's not a lefty after that we're probably looking at probably between I guess Wade based on where he tends to bat versus Dickerson and Wade does have some speed has shown some power this year so if we do get Wade batting sixth I actually might put him above Dickerson Dickerson is $2,500 though so I guess it depends I would say either guy works so I would say that's the way I would check out that but I think this is a solid one right here checking out Wade a tiny tiny bit of of Dickerson we'll see where things break from a sour perspective you need the savings like if you need to jump down $400 to go from Wade down to Dickerson do it that is totally okay very much on board with that so I would say potentially just one two three four if we get Posey in there for today for the Giants kind of boring but Wade is also a consideration there to see if he can you know differentiate a bit from the stack okay let's talk to Robert over on Facebook Hoskins is very high yeah he had a like a 40 point gain yesterday I think didn't matter because it was in my DeGrom lineups so that went to waste but yeah Reese Hoskins has shown a lot of power this year versus righties I know the plate discipline numbers have been I guess the word I would use is frustrating for for Reese Hoskins this year but the power has been there all year long 230 ISO for the year for Hoskins strikeout rate at 27% that's acceptable for sure so it's just because Alec Mills is such a good job of keeping batters on the ground this is over is it's only a four start sample since he let's see here since he did did did did rejoin the rotation so this is his four start since rejoin the rotation 17% fly ball right all out we're allowed that is a very low number so that's why I'm not like super into the Phillies for today there's also the weather can to consider not just the fact that there is some rain in the forecast but also because the wind was supposed to be blowing in it is still blowing in a 12 miles per hour as of right now it's 71 degrees it's a lot lower than it was previously so that's why I'm not super jazzed but either side of that game and it does play but you're right Reese Hoskins hitting the ball very well right now the Prince when looking at bats what are the best stats to look for good question let's go let's take so we've not talked about the Orioles yeah let's use them as an example here so we haven't really gone too much through them yet we'll pull up the Orioles numbers and look at lefties and I think the reason that I want to look at lefties here as an example is because we are dealing with small samples and that's always going to be the case we're looking at like platoon numbers looking at small samples so we see here with the Orioles looking at you know 80 or so plate appearances versus lefties that's not big enough for WRC plus to stabilize so to Prince if you're looking at just one stat I would not look at WRC plus and honestly I would actively ignore WRC plus just because there are so many misleading factors that can go into it over such a small sample so ignore WRC plus it's on the sheet but I would ignore it the thing I want to look at in a small sample depends on the size if it's a sample of this size like 80 or so plate appearances I will look at ISO because isolated slugging takes I think like 60 to 70 plate appearances to stabilize we are mostly there so we can say with a healthy amount of confidence but even though Cedric Mullins is a lefty he has lefties really well 210 ISO so far this year for him versus lefties 36% fly ball rate that's tremendous and obviously you can do a lot of damage once he hits the ball too so Mullins great Mancini great Mount Castle great Galvus is on the IEL so we can't use him Austin Hayes really high ISO versus lefties so that's what I look to first is ISO in this sample if it's a smaller sample and you have to make a determination on okay, is this guy someone who can realistically flash upside and be a tremendous option I would say look at strikeout rate if you're looking at a small sample strikeout rate stabilizes a bit more quickly than ISO so look at strikeout rate look at walk rate not because you want walks because you want guys we're seeing the ball well and doing stuff so that's not just for like platoons but also if I'm looking if a guy just came out the injured list I want to check out his strikeout rate his walk rate to make sure he's seeing the ball well stuff like that but then also look at his bad at ball data so for me when I'm trying to select batters at this point in the year we've had enough time for isolated slugging to stabilize so that's going to be one of the first stats I turned to try to maximize ISO in general you want to minimize strikeouts but for me I'm I tend to target lower strikeout pitchers so it's not as much of a concern for the individual batters as it would be for a stack so I would say check out the ISO check out the strikeout rate and go from there and especially in the small samples we tend to deal with I would actively be ignoring results based stats like WRC plus like those all encompassing results based stats because they do take a pretty long time to stabilize hopefully that is a helpful question or a helpful answer for you to print as you try to fill out your lineups for today that is all the time that we have here for today on the MLB DFS side of things but as always once again for today we've got more coming up for you Aaron Dolan is going to swing by and talk about game 2 of the NBA finals coming up tomorrow which should be a fun one we saw the Suns pick up a 1-0 lead last night and as Aaron predicted on the show Yannis and Ted Acumpo did play in that game so I'm going to bring on Aaron now and talk to her about game number one Aaron how did Yannis look in that first game like what are you thinking for him going forward based on what you saw last night I mean I think based on going forward he obviously played pretty well in that first game I expected that he was going to play I didn't think he was going to look as great as he did especially that first two quarters so I expect for game 2 he'll be fully healthy and fine and honestly they need to get a win in game 2 yeah absolutely so that's going to be a lot of fun and you're also going to have John Sheeran on a fan to a sports book on today so a lot of fun stuff here this is awesome yeah all right well Aaron good luck tell John that I say hi and have fun all right thank you Jim all right what's up guys happy Wednesday I feel like with the holiday it kind of throws you off a day but we are going to bring on John Sheeran director of trading at some point in this show kind of talk all things that happen in game 1 and talk about how the lines have currently shifted as we look at the NBA futures market as we look at the finals MVP market as well so we'll have him on in just a bit but quickly just wanted to wrap up about what happened in game 1 obviously Yannis did play in that game Suns covered the game went over as well I know that opening line we talked about this yesterday 2.17 and a half moved up to 2.19 and a half when it closed and as for the Suns they were laying five and a half points when they closed so we're going to bring on John Sheeran director of trading again to talk all things about these shifts I know a lot of you guys would be asking questions and you're more than welcome to ask questions directed towards me or John specifically but let's bring him on right now so we can get him in here in this chat hi John hi Aaron has gone good how are you thank you so much for joining us no problem happy to be on yeah happy to have you so obviously for game 2 we already have the Phoenix Suns they opened laying five and a half and the opening number was the same exact thing for game 1 but when we had game 1 and that line opened we knew that the Suns had more rest they had that home court advantage and also the status of Yannis was doubtful at the time so why do you believe that the Suns are not favored by more in game 2 at home after the outcome of game 1? yeah like you say obviously Yannis was a big doubt for the game and the spread at the same number kind of just reflects how much the books probably need to improve their performance levels and you know we all know about things like the zigzag theory and how you know the more you need a result normally the better it leads to your performance and I think that's a perfect case here where you know you don't necessarily see a movement in the line that reflects what we saw in game 1 more what the books probably need in game 2 and it's that idea of like one iteration of a game what do we really learn from it and I think over the grand sample we expect to you know improve improvements both from Yannis individually but also from the Milwaukee books entirely as a unit yes let's switch it over to the total so for game 2 it opened 221 and a half it's back down to 220 right now in game 1 that line opened at 217 and a half continued to move up like I mentioned at the beginning of the show do you believe that this was set four points higher just because all three games that these teams have played against each other including the regular season have gone over the total? I just think it's obviously much more you know there's much more pressure on every possession particularly when we get to the meaningful end of the game towards the end of it obviously it didn't happen last night given the blowout but normally if it's a close game possessions are longer it cuts down from that perspective and they mean more as well frankly in the finals so you know it's not unusual to see some sort of compression with the total overall I think that's what we're seeing here despite the game going on 223 points last night interesting so let's talk about the finals MVP market as well so CP3 is now moved from plus 155 to minus 145 after that game 1 win Devin Booker moves back from plus 250 to plus 550 do you think that the odds have shifted in favor Chris Paul solely on the fact that he had that 32 point performance yesterday he was obviously great for the team is this semi an overreaction to a game 1 performance or we see Chris Paul continue to lengthen if the Suns win game 2? Yeah, I think it's interesting from our perspective he was probably too short ahead of game 1 a lot of it was driven by the narrative going into the game obviously the redemption for Chris Paul and 16 years in the league and getting to his first finals so you know I think there was that story about him and then obviously we had the 40 point performance in the Western Conference finals as well from him so yeah we were a little surprised to see the gap we saw between Booker and Chris Paul but I think the narrative on top of the performance from Chris Paul last night is enough to drive the odds to where we see them right now where Chris Paul's you know pretty odds on prohibitive favors and you know it's going to take a pretty special performance from Devon Booker if the Phoenix Suns go on and win particularly in what might be a bit of a short series if we see a repetition of what we saw last night then obviously you know Devon Booker is even more ground to make up on Chris Paul than if we were to get 7 games Yeah and I think a lot of people are really riding off hoping to see Chris Paul really build on his legacy and get a ring finally let's also talk about the NBA finals series price so the Suns are favored they moved from minus 200 before game one to minus 300 currently on the Fandals Sports books but the Bucks also moved back to plus 240 for those tuning in how much do these odds shift per game? Yeah I mean obviously quite a lot is as you said we've gone from minus 200 to minus 300 on Phoenix and not alone was it a you know pretty decisive win from start to finish but you know I think for the matchups as well it looks pretty ominous for Milwaukee yes Yannis was far more effective than we thought he might be I didn't expect to see him for any of the series finals I know you had a view that we would see him so maybe we should get you have to help us out a little bit more off on Aaron but you sent in lines yeah I was pretty surprised to see him and very surprised to see how effective he was and how much like himself he looked but it does look a little bit almost in terms of the matchup I think the guard play that we particularly saw from Payne and Johnson on top of Booker and Paul as well as you know pretty dominant performance from Ayrton on the boards it looks pretty ominous for Milwaukee moving forward yeah Ayrton was absolutely incredible last time I'm glad I took his over for his rebounds props but there's obviously some markets that are available like players series point average for example some of those became available even more players in the last 24 hours should betters expect to see more markets available in the upcoming days in terms of this NBA finals yeah I mean look at we continue to try and make sure the customers of the best opportunity to bet on whatever element of the game whatever element of the series that they want to bet on and like you say that involves more specific player averages and player markets over the entire series rather than each individual game so the team continue to work as hard as they can to produce you know more engaging content for betters and letting the better choose what they want to bet on like I said is the kind of key element for us so we will continue to work hard and try and embellish the product as best we can yeah I'm really enjoying already watching this NBA finals some great markets available again and while we're having your dynamites we'll just ask you game five tonight NHL Canadians were able to pull off the overtime when last game obviously able to force a game five but the Lightning heavy favorites they can win the Stanley Cup back to back seasons now are you seeing any short money at all come in on the Canadians or is the entire world on the Tampa Bay Lightning because looking at the money right now I'm pulling it up right now on odds fire I believe it was 98% of the money was on Tampa Bay Lightning money line yeah I mean that looks pretty much exactly what I'm seeing in the fieldbook here and yeah I think we've been lucky that the guys did a great job here in terms of concentrating on Tampa Bay and we were quite sweet on them even when the Avalanche was still in the series and you know the Stanley Cup market was one that we're pretty aggressive on the Avalanche and we wanted to try and keep betters away from betting Tampa Bay with us and thankfully that's transpired like you say right now heavily dominant on Tampa Bay and I think we all expect the Stanley Cup to be closed out tonight and I expect to see a pretty dominant performance from the lightning closed out tonight I'm thinking the Tampa Bay lightning absolutely take it but John thank you so much for joining us here on this Q&A I'm sure all of our viewers and listeners and if you're watching absolutely enjoy this got some great insight for you and I'm sure we will be having you back on next week to talk even more about the NBA finals appreciate it Aaron have a good day yes thanks for coming on alright guys let's answer some questions it's Jackie Moon saying hello I'm back CP3 is getting the MVP if he stays healthy and they win as John Sharon said a lot of this is around the narrative which is why I wanted to ask him specifically if it was an overreaction to his performance in game one let's say he went out there and he only scored 10 points for example and Devin Booker had 50 points I'm sure the line would have semi-moved in favor of Booker and not back and maybe Chris Paul would have just moved up just a tad but I like that I have Chris Paul winning MVP I said this morning when I went on more ways to win which is a great show that is streaming for Fandall so you should definitely be tuning into that they had some great insight today Lisa Kearney was leading that but all around yeah I have CP3 you know winning it all after the game yesterday I know I tweeted out I was like I'm taking I'm fading the public I'm taking the under and I'm also taking bucks five plus five and a half terrible tweet we'll never do that again we'll never absolutely fade the public again learned my lesson there even though most of the times it does work out I wasn't surprising on his plate we talked about this yesterday I was expecting him to play in this game I knew that he wasn't practicing with the team so I kind of felt that maybe the bucks were pulling a little bit of I don't know the word trying to fool us just to tatt us betters and to thinking that he wasn't going to play in that game but it looked great in the first app I thought it was actually going pretty well and then you can kind of get into some of the why don't we pull it up here we go get into some of the more stats as the other thing that I wanted to mention since we talked about it yesterday for the suns they did cover that first half spread that was the only thing that went well for me yesterday and ate and over rebounds other than that I didn't do too hot yesterday but you always rebound here in bed and we always rebound and you guys remember you can drop any questions in sorry I kind of look like I get distracted because I'm reading and trying to see if any of these questions flood in Mr. Jack can be saying I think even if Booker ever just 40 it's going to be CP3 as you mentioned and as John mentioned as I mentioned as you just mentioned it does seem like that would be the case without having a ring so if he wins I or if the sons when I do think obviously it seemed very deserving for him but looking at the stats from yesterday it doesn't seem too bad the Milwaukee bucks shooting 46% from the field gold range 3.44% 16 to 36 which is pretty good for them so I feel like this wasn't an absolutely terrible game nobody played you know terribly Chris Middleton took his under in points thinking he was going to hit under 26 and a half he has 29 Giannis 20.17 rebounds I mean he seriously looks like he was not injured whatsoever like that extended me absolutely did not bother him whatsoever which is a good thing I'm glad because now we're gonna have a really good series and it's not going to be sons and four even though it technically could still be that I don't see that happening the bucks out of some respect for themselves have to win at least one game I said sons in six being kind of talk about that in a little bit but like three parlays but through them in with some losing legs doesn't that stink when one player and one part of your parlay you're really thinking it's like out of all the legs 16 plus rebounds gosh yeah he killed it yesterday yeah look at all the like Booker 27 Paul 32 8 and 22 points Macal Bridges 14 8 and 19 rebounds would you look at that his rebounds props definitely going to be high for the next game but exciting things I mean I think the biggest takeaway from this game is it seems like the bucks actually like technically played well so I think the sons are going to be able to close it out sooner rather than later I feel like the bucks went into a lot of game sixes game sevens able to come back obviously we knew that against the Brooklyn that's when they were up to game so there's obviously the potential that happens but I I don't know I'm not Milwaukee bucks winning a ring unfortunately let's why don't we get into some of the odds right now Fandall sports book as we talked about sons laying five and a half basically the same exact line as game one which was interesting we asked John about that as well as why this is that way because we know that Yannis is going to play in this game and also why it isn't even longer considering that the sons had one by so many points last game as for the total obviously it's sort over surprising that it's set a little bit higher I also think that when you're betting into a series regardless the first game is the hardest games because you don't know how these teams actually stack up against each other yes they played against each other in the regular season but the stakes were not the NBA finals getting a championship ring type of pressure so I think after game one you kind of have a better read on how things are going to go between these two teams obviously things are going to switch so that the teams can prepare and continue to win the sons we'll do what they can again and the Bucks are going to try to adjust their game plan I'm sure we can click into this market a little bit but we'll just go through some of these top tabs obviously as you can see the Fandalsports book looks a little different than it did yesterday we had a little update over the night so hope you guys like this but does look a little bit different today alright NBA finals championship here we go sons minus 300 you're not going to lay that number at this point Bucks plus 240 if you think the Bucks are going to come back and win plus 240 not a bad price also as we talked about yesterday you can bet on the NBA finals series betting the series spread so this shifted a lot it's still the same minus one and a half but yesterday the sons minus one and a half was that plus money and the Bucks plus one and a half was I believe it was minus 140 something but now plus money so what I also mentioned yesterday is if you don't have a good read on this and you want to kind of wait out the games betting on four games five games six games seven games this is where you still see some type of value and it's interesting to see seven games plus 195 I guess you're thinking this is really going to go the distance I personally do I said sons in six I think the Bucks like I mentioned they have to get a win at least I know a lot of people were originally saying five games but maybe when the Milwaukee Bucks go home they'll play a little bit better I always feel like they've played better at home all right player futures as we talked about the narrative Chris Paul look our continue this just Yannis sticking around the same spot 500 Booker moving back jumping past Yannis plus 550 Chris Middleton moving down eight and 12 to one drew holiday 45 to one McCall bridges Brooklope as Jay Crowder I would not be betting into any of these I wouldn't even bet on eight and or drew holiday Chris Middleton I mean this seems to be that came down overnight I could see out of all these players Middleton if the Bucks were to win and he was able to put up a ton of points but I still think they would give it to Yannis with a narrative and same thing with Chris Paul it just it seems like it's going to be either one of these two but I would wait for the Chris Paul number because I think if let's say they win the next game it's going to move out if the Bucks win game three it might move back down might get it minus 120 or something like that so I think I would wait in terms of this market Mr. Jackie Moon I feel like he's always coming on here has to be six or seven if I'm guessing I currently have a bet for sons in seven I think what do you mean you think I feel like you got to know what your bets are Benjamin Cruz I told you all to bet the over on Brooke Lopez with the money sign good for you and yet you could bet on the Brook Lopez for the series what he's going to average and all those players are actually more players I should say are starting to become available as you could see series top point score we talked about this yesterday and then for the series most total assists series most total rebounds kind of get into those here's what I was talking about yesterday this point average now you have Chris Paul you have 8 in I feel like we should have an 8 in series rebound average because after last night we should have that Chris Middleton series here we go true holiday Brooke Lopez so yesterday this Brook Lopez was 14 and a half this is now 13 and a half what he's going to average but it's interesting that we have some of these markets and other thing like I mentioned yesterday definitely be digging on the Fandall sports book during this time because you will find like for example some of these players weren't available yesterday they popped up in the last five hours because this morning I was looking and they weren't available so always be checking on here I know it looks a little bit different but you'll adjust your eyes just fine let's get into the game see if they have any player props available alright so we have the normal things some of them already up player points just becoming available oh look at this this looks totally different than last time you don't have to click into the tab make a Fandall making this making it a lot easier when I'm talking about it as well alright Giannis 26 and a half Middleton 25 and a half this is interesting because last game it was 26 and a half I said take the under wondering why it's 25 and a half when he had 29 points the last game Drew Holiday Brooke Lopez let's see Devin Booker 28 Chris Paul 22 and a half I feel like Chris Paul every time that he has a standout game I'm saying to take something under for him then he has a standout game and then they said it at 22 and a half when I feel like that should be higher and Devin Booker I feel like should come down the tad from 28 and a half maybe he'll go off in game too maybe he was given CP three just a little little time to take the ball there Benjamin Cruising the value on Booker for MVP MVP is great I absolutely agree with you I think out of the entire board he does have the best value right now again it just comes down to the narrative of you know who plays better I mean Booker plays the next couple of games 10 times better than Chris Paul he averages 45 points 50 points has one of those crazy games that he can have and we that that we know we can have it is really good value props to Fandle for the update yes props to Fandle this is actually so aesthetically pleasing now not that it wasn't before but you got to click into every single person I know sometimes on the chat I would be like searching things through Command F which is a great thing to do if you're ever trying to cheat on tests I used to do that you could quickly look something up command command F and you'll find it really quickly all right let's continue looking down see all these are becoming available right now I wish I could get into kind of all my picks for tomorrow but I haven't gone through specifically each entire market because again the game is tomorrow night so things are going to change up a little bit kind of find out more things we can see for example like player points match bet a Janus is he was questionable then it was a game time decision then obviously he played and I feel like the line started to shift after the videos started coming out of Janus on the court dribbling and kind of warming up like that's when people really know he was probably going to play I'm interested to see what rebounds is going to be for 8 and 12 and a half so yesterday it was 11 and a half took the over there worked out he had 19 rebounds of course yesterday so specifically wanted to see him Janus also considering 17 rebounds there we go crazy crazy crazy so yeah all the rebounds we can actually do match but now for rebounds maybe we could do that before and I just skipped over it because there were so many little tabs and now we can actually see what's going on it's Mr. Jack I mean saying I've still have never used my laptop or Fandle just mobile I'm the same way I always use the mobile app I as you can see I'm not even logged in on my computer I feel like if you are live bedding absolutely use your computer I feel like it's way faster I know a lot of times in the NFL season I feel like my friends sit around with their laptops not to sound very I don't want to say to Cheddar it but we would sit around with laptops and live bed and that was kind of the way we did it instead of doing it on our phones you can you know click things in a lot quicker than you can on your phone I feel alright we have all those player combos first half second half still hopefully how do I move over sorry guys I'm adjusting just as you guys are here we go okay why do we not have that here probably under half air and let's get our head out of the sand here we are alright sons minus two and a half as we talked about yesterday they've been hitting this a ton of time especially when they're playing at home I gave off a pretty crazy stat yesterday let me find that for you because this stat is actually very compelling to want to take the first half at all times okay sons are 27 and 13 against to spread in the first half is home favorites it's pretty much convinced me that I'm going to take sons minus two and a half don't know about you but that's how I'm feeling there why don't you guys drop some more questions below and we'll talk about some more things the other thing I wanted to mention obviously minus 255 looking at the money which is absolutely insane for this game I mean 98% of the money 92% of the bets on the Tampa Bay Lightning to win I'm assuming people are throwing this in a parlay because you're not going to take it minus 255 I don't really know anybody that takes the puck line either so over seems to be the play here from what people are looking like 76% of the money 62% of the bets total at five and a half right now personally I'm not going to be betting on this game wish the flyers weren't as crappy as they were and I was talking about the flyers being in this right now but here we are Oh don't want to be touching NFL we're not NFL season quickly just looking at this we can already see more money coming in again it kind of looks identical Phoenix money line for them to cover seeing morning more money come in on the over so it seems to be the same kind of situation and what's interesting is the line is actually been bet down a point and a half even though I'm not sure how I will want to play that total for tomorrow but we'll kind of see how things shake out Mr. Jackman saying I think the lightning close it out in game five I also think that I think the entire world actually thinks that tonight I'm pretty sure I saw a video of the mayor somebody hoping that it was going to come back to a game fives that they could obviously win at home which is much cooler than winning on the road I if I could win obviously celebrating I mean obviously you get back pretty quick but still it's not the same let's see we'll also look quickly at some trends because I will not be on tomorrow I will be on a bleacher report TNT show the group chat Friday I'll be on my way to Miami to do a fandal event called fantasy over the weekend so I am honestly only trying to give you the trends currently that we can see and some of the numbers that we're seeing because again not going to be on tomorrow the walkie Bucks are for no and against the spread locks six and one in their last seven games playing on one days rest I don't really think that's a very important trend I would kind of just disregard that some of these you can see you can factor these in but sometimes it feels like like for example sons are nine and two against a spread in their last 11 after scoring a hundred points are more in their previous game like I don't know how much I'd really factor that in not huge then straight up record of course it is because they're playing against all winning teams because they're in the playoffs so I just try to make the point that sometimes when you read these trends into your research really try to figure out what you want to focus on and what's trends that you actually want to follow because some of these can seem even though they're obviously great trends it just can be a little confusing over five and one the last six meetings in Phoenix over is five and on the last five meetings between these teams head how that game to goes was great having John Sheeran on last thing I'll mention it's Jackie Moon saying yeah I heard a lot of their family members couldn't go to Montreal for travel restrictions so I'm sure they'll be extra motivated to close it out in front of their family yes travel restrictions not fun I feel like a lot of stuff still going on related to covid so it's getting better everything's getting better but at the same time there's always going to be still those restrictions a little bit Jackie Moon also saying I've never really looked at yeah I think again it kind of when looking at them it might scream something but is it really a training when to follow I know a lot of people kind of follow the day trends as well not too into the day trends it's kind of cool once one says you know a team's five no in the last you know five Wednesday games but I don't really know how helpful that is in term of betting to be honest but anyways guys thank you for joining me today on this Q&A show thank you for your questions everyone that answered as always we still the same game parlays this hit yesterday twenty five dollars for thirty five hundred and as you can see we still have an update to everything here so go through the Fandalsports book find some more markets oh NBA boost 60 plus total points scored in the first quarter the NBA finals game too that just went up see you got to monitor these things or else you don't see it alright guys well I will see you next Monday hopefully in terms tuning into this Q&A three looking ahead to game four I hope you have a great weekend I was about to say holiday weekend but that just happened and I will see you guys next week