 Hello and welcome to the Monday market update with me, David Madden. Today's date is Monday the 7th of October 2019 and the time I just got 10 15 for the summertime and it's been a fairly Subdued quietly start to the European trading session today There's kind of big stories of this all the other past few days Last week obviously we had major volatility in global financial markets We so we had some very poor economic indicators Out of Germany for example the manufacturing level committed and a 10-year low the poor service figures from from the from the UK The ISM manufacturing report in the US for the 10-year low We also the slow multi-year low in the ISM non-manufacturing report as well that really sparked a very sizable sell-off in global stocks in kind of the middle towards the back end of last week On Friday just gone we had by and large a positive US job support the old moment rate dropped to a 50 or low The weight wages component did cool a little bit But nonetheless wages are still growing and they're growing at a faster rate than inflation so workers are getting a real increase in wages and The in relation to the between the headline figure and also the headline figure Came in Below expectations, but at the same time the the August bigger was revised higher So kind of balanced out and overall it was a fairly positive finish finish to Friday So the broadly speaking positive update we've had on Friday Set European stock markets higher and also sent US stock markets higher I can it kind of chased away some of the fear that that was doing the rounds that thought that the US economy is Clearly going through a slowdown over the weekend We've been hearing can reports that China aren't exactly Opened to the idea of a trade deal as US and there's certain aspects that they're gonna That would be compromised with it for the time being in relation to say subsidies and industrial policy And it's believed or some of the sources in the last few days over the weekend Be coming out that essentially China aren't aren't as keen as the US to the kind of strike in near term broad trade broad trade agreement So that's a kind of a broader trade agreement and the near term is up that president Trump has been talking about in the last few weeks And it would appear that China aren't too Too keen on striking that deal and in the near term this leader this week If the US and China will meet US and Chinese that it gets will be discussing trade That's gonna be in focus, but also at the same time we have the a second whistleblower has come forward in relation to the The controversy between president Trump and the president of Ukraine That is gonna have President Trump, but what we could see is we might see the Donald spending more time talking about trade as a way of actually lifting stock markets as a more importantly as a way of deflecting Focus away from the Ukrainian situation more towards the trade situation So on the one hand you might say you could argue that the Chinese delegates like you look to kind of leverage this and Be less forthcoming because they might feel president Trump will be will be more flexible and looking to get get a deal done On the same time president Trump Might start spending a lot of time focusing focusing on trade as a way of distracting people from the impeachment inquiry What did you know is a quick think a quick look at the major events of week ahead of us A week ahead article can be found on our website if you go to see some markets calm and other insights under news analysis You will find the article here So looking out to tomorrow we have trade figure trade figures in China that's obviously gonna be in play because of We'll see what what the kind of state of demand is like in China So the import side will tell us what domestic demand is like and the export side will tell us whether the the Trump Tariffs are having any impact on the Chinese manufacturers the companies selling out to the best of the world Tomorrow we have four quarter figures from easy jet Tomorrow we also have 30 quarter figures from Levi Strauss Wednesday, we hear we hear the we'll have the minutes from the Fed of Reserve update Better reserve much recent meeting the minutes on Thursday. We have this is when the US China trade talks Kickoff on Thursday. We have UK manufacturing production On Thursday, we have on the market half results Thursday, we have a sales report coming out from Dadelle and on Thursday We have third quarter figures from Delta Airlines. So a lot look look at some of the major markets starting off with the indices So the broad theme Has been to the upside for for global stock markets, but it is worrying that The the highs that were achieved In late September early October failed to take out the highs of July, but notice how we after we saw major sell-off Last week In the middle of last week there was this particular candle here Which is fairly common across across a few markets. We could have the potential to be a hammer formation so essentially look notice how we have the a long week of the candle here and the Account the shape of the candle tells us that The market was essentially pushed far lower Closed essentially on the high of the of the day And so it's quite it's my bullish that respect and then of course what we saw was it on Friday Another bullish candle and for that we have an inside day today But essentially why we can hold below the recent lows is likely we could see a move further move to the upside And if you do press on higher from here We could be looking at retesting this red line here majority moving average and that comes to play at 72 43 we can see that a few occasions that particular metric actors but resistance and support Not too long ago on a metric has been important in the past. It makes it more likely it will be so in the future But obviously there are no guarantees On the other hand if the market does manage to turn over on a self keep up for the recent low Just this north of the 7,000 mark 7,000 obviously a big second large number It's kind of not that hardly surprising And we saw some buyers coming in and stopping up the stopping of the footsie not too far away from that particular metrics And if you do have a size of break below 7,000 that will be fairly that will be significant Given that will be we will be talking about multi-month low territories And if you do break below 7,200 we could be looking at you heading back down towards this zone down here and around 6,800 or perhaps even 6,732 Take a look at what's going on in the DAX What you will notice is a bit between the footsie the DAX without Jones and the SP 100 We saw some similar price action in the last few weeks And once again notice how that being a fairly sharp sell-off on the DAX early October for the start shell off You know we did hit Multi-month lows in the early hours of the the first half of the Thursday 30 session But similar to what we saw in the footsie 100 we have a fairly long week here Which which denotes indecision and of course as very similar to the footsie the market traded lower It opened here it traded lower managed to push higher pull back some of the losses And if I essentially closed on the high of the day, so once again, it's not too dissimilar to what we saw on the footsie 100 So the potential hammer formation that we saw the first 100 looks this this This can be here. It's fairly similar to what we saw the first 100 similar scenario on the Friday We saw the market much push and higher again, which is that was obviously Kind of potentially kind of confirming that that that at the market has reached low in the near term I'm off moving off that low. Obviously today's session has been fairly quiet very subdued So we haven't really really moved a whole lot But while we hold above the recent lows down around here, it's likely we could see further gains You made to the upside so if you press on higher from here on the on the on the DAX We could be looking at retesting this line here Which is the one hundred degree of the average and that comes to play at twelve thousand one hundred and twenty two And if you go beyond that if you're looking at heading up forwards This is old here in around twelve thousand three hundred We can see in a few occasions that area probably speaking is it the lack of solidation in it So it could potentially be an area of Resistance should the market ever at a decent move to the upside on the other hand if the market does That I should turn lower on itself and take off the recent lows keep on there for this red line here The pretty moving average that comes into play at eight eleven thousand eight hundred and twenty and if you will be on that We could be looking at it back down towards here down around eleven thousand seven hundred Turn your attention to the US and see what's going on over there Similar scenario whereby late September into early October We did see a fairly sizable set off on the Dow Jones market push lower But once again quite similar to what we saw on the DAX and the FTSE 100 on that on Thursday Initially in the first portion of the training session saw a large sell-off market push to aggressive be lower But then the market was driven back up In this case it went back up firmly but back up above the turning moving average the red line here And it's similar to the DAX and the FTSE 100 much a close not too far away from the high so The kind of calm of the team here is the long way coming on the daily candle on Thursday and markets are closing essentially basically at the high of the day so This could be construed with decent potential to be hammer formations Which would be show us that we could be it could be in line for a reversal from here And I'm following under Friday solid move higher onto the upside on Friday And that's your dissimilar we saw with the DAX and the FTSE whereby we're very much having a fairly Inside dated inside day today or by the trade range has been fairly small But essentially why we hold above the recent lows of it around here We could see further gains be made And if you press that higher from here, we could be like heading up towards this zone here just in around the 2000 sorry 26,800 or maybe dollars maybe said some of them between say 26,700 26,800 this zone in around here, and then it's we really need to take about the The earth the the first of August first of October high before we could get Considered like a retesting the highs that were achieved in mid-September What is ever so slightly worrying is that? The rally that we saw going into mid-September the highs of mid-September failed to take off the highs of July which were the all-time high so we're still in the broad rubber trend But just be mindful that we the highs here failed to take off the highs here So if we do have another move to the downside We could be looking at retesting the lows down here So if the market does matter to turn over on itself, we could be like the heading back down towards this area here Kind of the psychology important 26,000 and the charity movie average, which comes into play just south of it at 25,000 967 but really keep on there for this area here if you take off these lows here Which is 25,6442 if you take out those those there we then could be heading back down towards this region here down around 25,200 Looking at the S&P 500 fairly similar situation on that provide a pretty aggressive sell-off Provide the pretty aggressive sell-off in set in late September into early October notice again very similar to what we saw on the on the On the Dow Jones the tax and the first hundred fairly long week on the last Thursday's candle And of course the market manager close is essentially at the high of the sessions So once again could be construed as a hammer formation here And if you can hold above the recent lows this area here in around 2,900 we could see further gains be made from here or we could be looking back up towards just was south of 3,000 but up towards a 2,990 that these are the areas here. We could be like you're retesting or maybe up as high as 3,000 itself If though the market turns over on itself We take out the recent lows here in around the end of 2,900 mark We could be like any back down towards this red line here the trading with the average which comes to the play at 2,853 Take a look at what's going on over the gold market So gold is a six-year high in early September But we did see a bit of a bit of a pullback at the gold market So we've had the lower low lower high and a lower low So I know we're putting the markets pushing higher here again Now it could be a very crucial point because it could be looking if the market does much of a lot of steam and turn over on itself We've then have another lower high. We could be like if we test this area here. I'll predict you taking it out So if the gold market fails to take off this area here in around 1535 if it drops back below this Drops off from these levels. We could be like you're heading back down towards this area here in around 15 sorry 14 53 or perhaps even down low as 14 30 On the other hand if you do manage to hold above this line here It's blue line 53 moving average which comes to play essentially on 1500 We could then be looking to retest 15 30 50 35 and beyond that up towards the Early September high of it around 15 57 stick with the commodity now I'm keeping taking like what's going on at all So all of this basically had a very fairly and Terrible run the last few weeks. So we obviously had the massive joke to the upside in the wake of the drill attacks in Saudi Arabia But as you can see here, we've had a colossal sell-off in the gold in the oil market So between Saudi Arabia talked about getting back to production quicker than expected And then I should be doing that and then the concerns about the health of the global economy You know, we've had by and large Chinese manufacturing sector isn't a great shape as we saw last week manufacturing in The in Germany and the US are at our decade lows. So they're concerned about demand. So what do you know? The oil market gave up all the gains that it's made and I should be done And I should have had a quite a substantial move to the downside similar to the equity market and a recent months we have seen Sin rush moves on equity on the on the equity fund we after aggressive round of selling We didn't see this particular time here, which to be fair isn't exactly your test book example of a All day of a hammer which which it isn't but nonetheless the very very long week those suggest indecision And if you have what's clearly a very aggressive move to the downside for a couple of weeks And then you see a Candle with a very very long week They know the indecision could denote recovering it from it of a turnaround and notice how we have been pressing and higher from here So if you can hold up of the recent lows, you can all above this area here I was just above the recent lows We could be like you heading back and forth the kind of psychology port and 60 bucks a barrel on bridge And if you go beyond that you can be looking at testing this blue line the 50 movie average at 60 spot 91 If however, the record turns overall itself yet again that continues in the recent downward trend First protocol would be the would be the recent lows here down around fit in around the 56 spot 68 area and then if you go below that We can then potentially be heading down toward this area here in around the kind of 52 region on WTI It's a fairly similar scenario whereby the market has been a regressive movie the downside basically though for a couple of weeks now But similar scenario We had a very very long week on Thursday candle and the market has been pushing higher since then so if you hold Above the recent lows in running in a 52 area It could be like you're turning this area here in around 54 one bit of consolidation was We've seen it in running at 54 and if you go beyond that this blue line here the fifth movie average Then by nationally coming to play which comes in which is that 55 spot 67 If you do have a move to the downside keep a level for this area here This this line here which comes to play at 50 spot 36 that that broad zone Access support or a few occasion tried to 2019 so that's going to be potentially big area of support should the market turn over itself again in the near term And finally taking a look at what's going on in currencies starting off with your daughter So it's very it remains in the kind of very much wider negative trend that's been in for for some time now less series of lower lows and lower highs and While we can remain below say they're going to have a 110 area And also going to blow the kind of wood 11 area It is likely that we could see the market turning over itself and yet again And if you take out of the recent lows here in around one spot away 79 We could be like the heading back down towards one spot away If however the market does much going to press on higher and if you do well It's you're going to take us in this this high here in around one spot one spot One spot 11 once once about 11 we can then be looking at retesting the the late August high in at one spot 11 64 But notice on a few occasions We've had quite a few series of lower lows and lower highs. So We really need to be good at the very least taken out this area here And I just north of one spot left before we can begin to think that the market is going to shake off the recent the recent downtrend And finally turning our attention to the British pound versus the US dollar cable So we obviously had the massive move with the downside in terms of a series of lower lows and lower highs, but What's I suppose we could be safe and we're confidence now that that We're sitting they am the calls that were made about is this a hammer formation We could see that the market pushed and aggressive of the downside part of the driven back up And the market didn't close I should close near-ish and the high of the high that particular day And since then we did see a fairly impressed following that we did see a fairly impressive move on up to the upside Now granted Michael has given up some of those gains But we've held it better to kind of hold back above the fifth movie average And we've been closing by that for for a few days now So if you can hold above this blue line here in at one spot 22 53 We could be looking at retesting the kind of 124 area and then if you go beyond that We could be like you heading it just north up toward this area here at 126 And if in the other hand the record does better to turn over itself again, and we take out 122 We could be looking at falling backwards into the kind of wider downtrend That's been a player for some time and we could be like getting south of 120 down toward this area here at one spot 1958 This before I go if you have any comments to make in this video or any of the other videos We've made here at CMC markets, please feel free to leave a view on reviews. Thank you very much