 We're just 12 hours away from polls opening in the battle and spend by election. And if polling is correct, Labour will lose the seat which would make battle and spend the first time in over a century that an opposition leader has lost two seats to the governing party in the same parliament. Now, this would, of course, from that statistic alone be an extraordinary feat. But what would the consequences be to discuss the election campaign and its ramifications? I'm delighted to be joined by Owen Jones. How are you doing, Owen? Oh, raring to go. Hi, everybody. Woo-hoo. I'm so pleased we're not clashing with any football tonight because I feel like we might have lost some people but you're here. It's a day off the football and we have a great show lined up for you. As ever, we do want to know your thoughts throughout the show. You can tweet those on the hashtag TiskeySour. You might like to tell us who you'd vote for if you lived in battle and spend or if you do live in battle and spend. Actually, that would be even more useful if, of course, tell us why you would or have made your decision. As ever, if you knew, do make sure you hit that subscribe button. We've got lots and lots of battle and spend-related stories tonight. Let's start with the basics, though, which is the candidates. We're going to run you through, obviously, the three main ones, Labour, the Tories, and George Galloway. Let's start with the Labour candidate. She started the race as the favourite because Labour are defending the seat no longer but it should be Labour's to lose. Their candidate is Kim Ledbeater. And in interviews and in campaign literature alike, her priority has been to emphasise that she is the local candidate in the race. Here she is speaking to Owen. Ultimately, there's lots of people who are going to turn up in these next few weeks who didn't even know where Batman's been was until a few weeks ago. You know, I've lived her all my life. You know, so those issues that people have got are my issues as well. So they need an MP who understands those issues. Very, very clear about that. People are going to turn up here with their own agendas and their own egos. It's not fair on the local people. Now, I think everyone would agree that other things being equal, it's better to have a local candidate. It's better to have people represented by people who live in the same place as them. However, in this case, it does seem possible that this could be standing in for a lack of any concrete positions. Here, Ledbeater is asked about pay for nurses, tuition fees, and a key issue in the constituency, Palestine. We have to be really strong on Palestine. The situation in Palestine is horrific. We have got innocent men, women, and children being killed. What would you do in practice? My job is to put pressure on the Labour Party and the government and the international community to do more. That's my job. What would you want them to do in Palestine? Well, we need to work towards a two-state solution. The first thing we do is get the peace talks started again. You know... Would you stop arm sales to Israel? I think I would need to get involved in those conversations and those discussions. Look, there will be people who are far better informed than I am on the Palestinian issue. My job is to listen to the people of Batle and Spen and to take their voice forward into those conversations. I think nurses need to be paid a fair wage. 12.5% pay rise increase? I would have to look at the figures in a bit more detail. I wouldn't. It's not as simple as me just, again, waving a magic wand. No, but it's just picking a position, surely. The Royal College of Nurses said that's what nurses should get. I think nurses deserve to be paid more. That's very, very clear about that. I went out for a drink with a friend of mine who's a nurse. She said, I'll get this round in Kim. I've just been given a 30 pence a week pay rise. Not good enough, is it? Let's be really clear about that. So, again, my job is to speak to people about nurses who have been paid fairly, teachers being paid fairly, you know, addressing all these issues that have had a result of the pandemic. But, again, we can't just wave a magic wand and make these things happen. My job is to get involved in those conversations and be allowed... But people are in a clear position, don't they, from their Member of Parliament? Absolutely, that's it. They want to know where they stand. Yeah, and once I'm elected, all those things will be considered and I will come to my very clear points on them. Would you get a tuition fee? Would you vote to get rid of tuition fees for young people? I'm not a massive fan of tuition fees. Absolutely. When I did my degree at 25, I didn't have to pay anything. It was absolutely wonderful to get a degree without having to pay a penny. I think £9,000 a year is excluding so many people from education. I think it's really difficult. I used to be a lecturer at Bradford College. You know, it's a massive barrier to people to think that they're going to get into so much debt. So, yeah, those are really important conversations to be had. But, you know, people are also sick of thinking that there is a magic money tree, so there isn't. So, we've got to be really clear to people about that. So, you saw a non-answer on selling arms to Israel. She'll have to think about it. A statement that led Beta would work on her positions after being elected, which is a slightly odd answer when you're standing for election. And then finally, the deployment of Theresa May's infamous magic money tree analogy when talking about tuition fees. Now, Owen, you've spent a while with Kim led Beta. You spent a lot longer with her than we've just shown in those clips. In many ways, I mean, she's got a backstory, which is a powerful backstory. I mean, it was her sister who was murdered in this seat. And she is also the only candidate from the constituency. But at the same time, she doesn't seem to have much to say when it comes to policies. Is that the impression that you got? So, I'm going to be diplomatic here to degree, because, I mean, partly because agrocentrists in Twitter have spun a conspiracy theory that having gone from portraying people like us on my left is irrelevant. Now we're somehow going to swing an entire by-election by saying things which will be deemed unhelpful. The other reason I'm going to be diplomatic as well, no, I think this is an important point, diplomatic, is that it's very important that whatever happens in Batley and Spen is placed firmly in the court of the Labour leadership. I think Kim led Beta as a very good campaigner. She's very energetic. She knows the local community very well. So I think she'd be a very good constituency MP. Do I think she has a concrete political vision? No. But do I think the Labour leadership has a concrete political vision? No, I was talking to MPs today about this, who referred to another interview, and you may have seen that I did with Paul Williams, who stood to be the doomed Labour candidate in Harley-Paul, and I asked him what Labour's vision was, and his response was dire, catastrophic, went viral on social media, and he was running roundly ridiculed. But then what was he supposed to say? I mean, if you were going to come up with a concrete vision for the Labour Party in the current circumstances, you would literally have to make them up. So you're right, did Kim led Beta come up with satisfying answers to the questions that I put to a self-evidently not, but she would have had to have invented positions that the Labour leadership simply do not have, and clearly this is a very tightly managed and tightly controlled campaign. Again, that has to be emphasised because this isn't some freelance operation, it's not some candidate and campaign that isn't directly being controlled or dominated by the Labour leadership, it's very much part of that operation, and therefore she can't go off message, and therefore she can't give satisfactory answers. So I think a very good campaigner, I think a very good would be a very good constituency MP, but clearly is not able to offer anything concrete, which is distinct from Labour's utter vacuum, which is its vision, its strategy, it doesn't have one, and therefore its local candidates, unless they decide to go rogue, they don't have one either. Labour's strategy throughout this programme, first though, let's move on to the most high-profile candidate in the election in Batley and Spen, which is George Galloway. He's running an interesting campaign. I don't think anyone could deny that. It's pro-Palestine, pro-Brexit, anti-Kia Stammer, anti-woke, and also anti-establishment in general. Now, I should say we're going to talk later on in the show about some of the darker sides of his campaign and about accusations of intimidation. First of all, though, I want to show you this interview he did with the BBC, which, to me, shows why Galloway has, I think, such a reputation as an effective campaigner. Some of your campaign is surely about getting rid of Kia Stammer as the leader of the Labour Party. You've spoken about that, and you've talked about yourself being a revolutionary in the past. This kind of revolution, there is a negative one, surely. What are your positive goals other than trying to bring down the Labour leader? I ask again, is there any point in me being in this interview? This is a party political broadcast. The people here have been left behind, neglected and taken for granted, and they're going to show what they feel about that on Thursday. I think I'll be the beneficiary of that, but whatever happens, Labour will lose this election and they will lose it, not because you say I'm a revolutionary, not because I arrived with a fanfare on a bus, not for any of the other negatives you've spun in just two or three minutes in this interview, but because Labour... Arriving on a bus and having a fanfare isn't a negative thing. 100 yards from here is a listed building that used to be the police station. Labour closed it down and sold it to a property developer for the price of a chip shop. That's the kind of local issue that has got people very angry indeed at Labour. And you're going to see, look, all of your questions... Let's talk about the Conservatives then, because they could have kept that police station open. They've been in power since 2010. If you split the Labour vote... There is no Labour vote, there are only voters. Okay, if you drive a wedge through the majority that Labour currently hold, surely you will be handing this election to the Conservatives? Is that what you want? Is this Labour TV or is it the BBC? It's a vote up on the Labour Party. Is this Labour TV? Are you happy to see the Conservatives gain power here? There is no such thing as a Labour vote. There are only voters, individual human beings, who have to be persuaded to vote for you. Now, your concern for the fate of the Labour Party in this constituency is touching, probably in breach of the BBC's charter... One of the reasons why people are switching off the BBC News in power. I'm fighting to win this election. If you vote for me, you'll get me. Now, that was clearly, I mean, from my perspective, a very effective, convertive interview. It did seem to me as if the interviewer was actually mainly using Labour Party talking points. Are you worried that you're going to get the Conservatives through, which isn't the question you normally hear them asking so aggressively to the Liberal Democrats, for example? Also interesting, the one topic he chose to really, I suppose, focus on there, which was this idea, again, I can't confirm either way here, of Labour apparently selling off a police station. This is an area with a Labour council. Obviously, the interviewer quite reasonably was putting forward, but these cuts were implemented by a Tory government. He's saying they share the blame. I want to bring you in on this. Obviously, the most high-profile issue and when it comes to George Galloway's campaign has been Palestine. He's been attacking Labour for being too weak on the issue, but it's not just about that, is it? I mean, what would you say are the key messages that George Galloway is going out into the battle and spend with and, you know, to try and win people over? Pot holes. I'm not joking. Pot holes is a really big issue locally. I spoke to one taxi driver. Why are you voting for George Galloway? Pot holes. Why do you think, you know, members of parliament have no control over pot holes? George Galloway said he'd fill them in himself, which I'm skeptical about. I have to be honest with you. But again, it does emphasise. It's the same thing I saw in Harlepool. And this is unfair on one level, but also self-inflicted on the other, which is Labour authorities are being blamed for cuts, which have been imposed by a Tory government and suffering the consequences electorally. So budgets for pot holes across the country have been slashed by the Tory government that then local authorities, in this case, a Labour local authority, end up with a blame. But the problem is Labour local authorities didn't have a strategy to deal with that. I mean, there was lots of groundstanding about, well, we can't implement, we can't resist the cuts because otherwise the government will introduce their own commissioners and override local democracy. It's quite a convincing argument. So they were saying we wouldn't be martyrs like in the past when in the 80s, for example, local councillors or the 20s, Poplar was a famous example, where local councillors refused to implement cuts and then personally face the consequences, being jailed, facing fines, that kind of thing. But they could have had a national campaign to link up Labour councils where they fought a national campaign to resist those cuts, but they didn't do that. So they end up getting blamed. George Galloway is tapping into that locally. You see the pot holes everywhere. It's really quite, those roads are dangerous. So that issue of local authority cuts has cut through. The Conservatives are responsible, but a Labour local authority gets the blame. Someone like George Galloway can tap into that. I will say it is worth pointing out that he is trying to face both ways. He is campaigning. You mentioned Palestine, Kashmir as well. Both issues very much resonating with no question. Acolytes of the Labour leadership claim that foreign policy issues are fringe obsessions of the Labour membership and voters out there, especially in the so-called red wall don't care. This is the so-called red wall and obviously local voters care very much about issues like Palestine and Kashmir. But also other issues. I mean, the fact that Keir Starmer withdrew from an iftar over the fact, allegedly, the reason was because one of the other speakers, one of the attendees supported boycotts against Israel. That cut through, that was spontaneously raised. But the other point I say about facing both ways. In 2019, the heavy wooden district independence, the candidate Paul Halloran stood and got 6,500 votes. Like lots of those sorts of parties, they get an eclectic voter coalition. But Paul Halloran is someone who has, you know, made a formal alliance with Lawrence Fox and is clearly tapped into that sort of demographic. And George Galloway did an event, which is supposed to debate with Lawrence Fox and the Paul Halloran crowd. He's very much going hard on a so-called anti-woke campaign where he bashes, including people like myself, who he sees as emblematic of wokery, supporting the rights of minorities. He started going on about, to me, about Black Lives Matter and how people said it was a Marxist organization, you know, using the sorts of talking points I would associate with Lawrence Fox as he went on about wokery and all the rest of it. You know, he said some extremely transphobic things which, so transphobic, you'd expect him to be offered a job in a British newspaper. But I mean, the point, you know, I don't think those are the issues that are cutting through with George Galloway. I don't think people are gonna vote for George Galloway because of so-called anti-wokery. But that's certainly something he has tried to tap into. But I think the main issues are Muslim voters who feel very disillusioned. They feel, they thought they had a voice under Jamie Corbyn. There are over 3 million Muslims, 86% of adult Muslims who voted, voted for the Labour Party in 2019. And now they feel completely disregarded, thrown to one side and not listened to. They wanna give the Labour Party a bloody nose. They see George Galloway even though a lot of them don't like him. I was speaking to one guy, he was like, not a lefty. He used to be a Labour councillor, 2010 to 2014, said Labour went wrong when they chose the wrong Miliband because of the unions. He's now campaigning for George Galloway, thinks Jamie Corbyn mistreated terribly and Muslims have been abandoned by the Labour Party. So that anger is very raw amongst British Muslims. They feel, I think they had a momentary sense of recognition as a critical part of Labour's voter coalition and have been discarded. And now they think we're gonna show that we're strong, we're powerful. We're gonna give the Labour Party a bloody nose. We're gonna punish them. But local issues, as I said, local authority cuts. Tories are responsible. Labour gets to blame. Galloway's exploited that, no question. Finally, we're gonna talk about the candidate whose name you probably don't know even though he is the favourite to win the seat. It's the Tories candidate. He's called Ryan Stevenson. Now, I think, I suppose for obvious reasons, he hasn't really sought media exposure because he's letting Labour and George Galloway take chunks out of each other. But he did do a brief interview with the Telegraph. Let's take a look. Kia Stammer's candidate and George Galloway are fighting like cats in a sack at the minute around internal issues within the Labour Party and how good to Kia Stammer is or isn't. I'm squarely focused on talking to voters about issues that matter to them. I'm not getting distracted by apologics. It's about telling people what a proactive local MP can do for them. We've just had, we've had this by-election because the previous Labour MP resigned. And I think people saw that that MP, that Labour MP spent more time looking for a new job than getting on with the job. And they looked to neighbouring constituencies of Jewsbury and Morley and see how a proactive MP can get stuff done for their area to buy work and leave government and bang in the drum. So that's a very frustrating message that we've heard over and over again from Tory candidates standing in traditionally Labour seats in the north of England. They're saying, look, even though we're from the Conservative Party, which implemented all of this austerity, ultimately the fault is that you've got these careerist Labour MPs who don't care about the local area. I'm going to be a vocal voice for the area and I'm going to bring in investment. There's a criticism that's just pork barrel politics. It's basically the Tory saying, you elect a Tory MP will give you some money, you elect a Labour MP, we won't. But it seems to have been in many constituencies so far rather effective. Owen, I understand Brian Stevenson didn't grant you an interview. Did you still manage to get an impression of his campaign when you were in the constituency? What he's about, what he's telling people? No, they're virtually non-existent on the ground. I mean, they've almost, the Tory campaign is the same in Harlepool where they really did refuse interviews full stop. They refuse interviews as well with Newsnight, this Tory campaign. You can bet, you know, you go around badly, there are loads of Labour posters, loads of George Galloway posters, very few, very little evidence for a Tory campaign on the ground and yet they are odds on to win. And they're running largely a telephone campaign and that's because they think they have a very good chance of winning it because the Labour vote will either not turn out and that is something else that's worth pointing out. Some of the mosques locally are telling people not to vote for George Galloway. They're telling Labour Muslim voters not to vote. But also, I mean, George Galloway, I'd say, just quickly on that, having spoke to their campaign, I mean, I think this is then being bullish, but sources close to their campaign are claiming a 60% vote collapse of the Labour Party vote. So on that basis, the Tories think they don't need to bother much campaigning because the seats are gonna be delivered to them by Labour voters not voting or voting for George Galloway. We've got a couple of interesting questions. So Pete Williams with a fiverr says, Batley and Spen isn't a place. Can we hear something about the individual towns hearing loads about Batley? What about Plecheten, which is, or it's a question mark actually, solidly Tory? I mean, I haven't been to the constituency. I know you have, Owen. Did you go outside of Batley as well or did you mainly stay in Batley? I think it's mainly being discussed as Batley being the key battleground because that's where most of the votes are in play and also where most people are switching. What's your take on that? That's exactly right. So the reason we stayed in Batley, the recommendation of pretty much everybody is because Batley is the key battleground. That's where people think this election will be won or lost. That's where George Galloway's campaign is focusing their energy and it's where Labour are focusing most of their defensive energy. So it will be in Batley where you're right. I mean, there's a collection of villages and so on across the constituency, but Batley is where this election will be decided. And we've got Alan Kennedy, also with a fiver who says, show the cat. I know it's in your cat's tail a few times, but I don't know if you can just grab it without disrupting your interventions. This is Rickman, not care who's... I'm not going to make it the obvious jokes, but Rickman, he's calmed down and I just don't... I can show him a tail. Here we go. Can we get a tail up? There we go, little tail. He's calmed down and I'm trying to stop him attacking the camera and he's sitting there purring on my hand. Rickman, can we... Wait a minute. It's our little... There we go. There we go. Evidence that it's real. You didn't just... I'll show later. Yeah, he'll come out later. Won't you? We've got... It's named Keir after Keir Starmer when he was Director of Public Prosecution. Stop it, Michael. He was elected an MP at that point in time. That's not funny. Owen was into him before he was famous, or only famous, I suppose, in very particular circles. Sorry, that's not true. There are over 2,000 of you watching at the moment. If you are enjoying tonight's show, do make sure you hit the like button. Next story relating to Batley and Spen. The competitive nature of the Batley and Spen by election is a good thing. It's positive that Labour are having to compete for votes of Muslim voters, rather than taking them for granted. And it's positive that there are demands on Starmer's party to take some positions instead of just going into a by-election, saying the Tories are bad and hoping for the best. However, there has also developed a darker side to the campaign in Batley and Spen. And sadly, in the constituency where Joe Cox was murdered, this has included political violence. The Guardian spoke to Dr. Abdul Rahman Rajpura, a GP who was canvassing with former MP Tracey Brabren when another volunteer was attacked. So attacked while canvassing. The incident took place this Sunday. The Guardian reports Rajpura described being asked to look at a campaigner who had been knocked to the ground and kicked while on the floor. He was shaking and bleeding from the right side of his head, he said, police were called. The former GP helped him find his glasses, which had been knocked to the floor and headed back up the road with a young woman by his side. Then he says, an Asian man in a mask threw eggs, which hit his leg and smashed, dirtying his clothes. I thought, oh my Lord, this could be a stone. Rajpura said he wished he could catch the assailant, but was unable to because of my age. An older gentleman, this GP who is giving those comments. That's clearly, I think, the most worrying thing we've heard from the constituency. There have also been fake leaflets distributed when it comes to dirty tricks going on. This is a fake Labour leaflet showing Starmer taking the knee and pledging that the party will be fighting white privilege in this election. So it's a fake Labour leaflet. And it reads, the Labour Party are committed to representing the BAME community and supporting Black Lives Matter. The Labour Party believes that it is high time that white people acknowledged their privilege and gave something back to people of color. Kia Starmer was proud to take the knee for Black Lives Matter. Will you join them? The back of the leaflet says, Labour believes that the biggest threat to our precious multicultural society is whiteness. And as a community, we must tackle that threat head on. Now, this is clearly trying to stoke up resentment. And of course, Labour would not put out a leaflet saying such ridiculous things to say during a campaign. As far as I know, well, I do know no one has claimed responsibility for the leaflets. Also important to note that no one has been arrested for the attacks, at least that's according to the latest reportage I've been looking at. That of course, all means that we don't know which campaign, if any, is behind these, well, the leaflet and the attacks. However, when discussing the general divisiveness of the campaign, Labour activists have been mentioning George Galloway. Now again, it's worth repeating. With these two cases I've just described, I have absolutely no idea whatsoever who's responsible. I don't have evidence to connect them to George Galloway or to anyone else. I do think there probably is something to the claim that Galloway is on one level fighting quite a dirty campaign. And to make that point, to explore that point, I want to return to a incident we talked about last Friday. This is a clip of the moment that Labour candidate Kim Leadbiter, who is gay, was subjected to homophobic harassment, I suppose, last Friday. This is where I live. This is my community. Don't come here and shout at me in the street. The Muslim community of Batley and Spen deserve better than this. They deserve better than this. I'm asking you, are you going to support Muslim parents? You're not going to support them, because you don't want their children to learn Are you supporting us? Kim, I'm here. Answer the question. Why are you running? Kim, I'm here to talk to you. Are you going to support Muslim parents who don't want their children to learn about it? Yes, so speak to this gentleman. Answer the man. We are going to chase Labour. We are going to chase Labour at every step. Now, as we said on Friday's show, the man harassing Kim Leadbiter is Shaquille Afzah. He's an anti-LGBT activist from Birmingham, and he was not part of George Galloway's entourage. It's worth repeating that, because there were some people online suggesting that was the case. However, it does seem to be the case that he was, at least tacitly, supporting George Galloway. This is some more footage from that same day. The government from Birmingham came across this message. Vote anyone but Labour. Labour must not win in this constituency. If you've got credit for the candidate, you feel you can vote for him. Do not vote for Labour. I am here to turn every single one of you. So you heard, if you've got a credible candidate, you feel you can vote for him. And he was very clearly pointing at George Galloway. Now, I don't really like the politics of blaming politicians for what their supporters do without any further evidence. You know, he said, oh, Jeremy Corbyn was terrible because Nick Griffin once said he was supporting Jeremy Corbyn or whatever. You know, this was always just troublemaking. It didn't mean that there was a genuine connection between the two people. However, in this instance, I don't think it is really reasonable for George Galloway or his supporters to claim it's a complete coincidence that homophobes are supporting his campaign. This is part of one of George Galloway's recent stump speeches in Batley and Spen. I am very concerned about what's taught in the schools. Some of you won't like this. I'm the father of five school-aged children and I don't want my young children at primary school, aged seven and nine, taught about sex. I don't want them taught how to master bait. I don't want them taught about email sex. I don't want them taught that there's 99 genders. I don't want them taught that men can become women by the mere act of declaring themselves to be and end up in an Olympic team beating the actual girls and the actual women. I don't want them taught that parents' chest feed when in fact it's women who breastfeed glory to women and women for that half a sky. This kind of woke liberal identity politics is anathema to me. So I want parents' views on what their children are taught and when they're taught it to be taken properly into account and in this area that is not happening. Now that was a lot of anti-LGBT dog whistles to include in a one and a half minute clip. So I think it's pretty clear that he is, for political reasons, trying to whip up fear about LGBT inclusive education and in general the politics of LGBT issues more generally. Again, from your experience being in the constituency from talking to George Galloway and from talking to I suppose supporters of the various campaigns. How dirty do you think George Galloway's campaign has been here? Do you think it's fair, I suppose, that not necessarily direct but potentially indirect connection I've drawn between that harassment of Kim Leadbiter on grounds about LGBT education and then George Galloway talking about those issues himself? Yeah, I mean that, you know, I know it was just a poll, but 30% of people who voted in the poll of those watching said they'd vote for George Galloway locally and I just asked them to just listen back to what he just said there. He's an arch social reactionary who voted for the Conservative Party earlier this year. He's someone who in 2014 denounced correctly Nigel Farage for whipping up prejudice against Johnny Foraner and then campaigned alongside him. He said, you know, he'd campaign for a main like anyone with any brain cells and then obviously he was an arch prexiteer. Said some pretty grim things about Donald Trump which weren't exactly making clear his staunch opposition to the former president. And on these social issues you can hear he sounds like Lawrence Fox. I mean, what I would say, and I think this is important, is, I mean, look, I've personally interviewed, I'll get his name right, interviewed Shakir Lafsar myself and I do think there needs to be some demarcation there because this is a landlord property developer who's headed these anti-LGBTQ protests which I've made documentary about two years ago in Birmingham and he will opportunistically jump on anything essentially. But and equally Labour has their own questions to answer because if you take for example back in 2019, Roger Godsef for Labour MP who backed, he was a Birmingham MP he backed the anti-LGBT protests the NEC rightly withdrew support from him the chief whip, Nick Brown at the time backed the move but some including Tom Watson spoke against having the whip withdrawn from him and there were sections of the Labour right who clearly don't have an exact who now run the party, don't exactly have an example record. In fact, I should mention Shabana Mahmood who is the National Campaign Coordinator of the Labour Party who back in 2019, condemned at the time spoke about how the religious background of peoples and the age appropriateness of conversation should be taken to account when teaching RSE in relation to LGBT issues. Now what George Galloway said there's a pack of lies incidentally, education inclusive education as being taught in these schools doesn't teach young children about sex, nothing about sex whatsoever let alone being taught how to masturbate these are cretesque lies what you do is you have these books for example which show people with some children have mixed race parents some have two mothers I mean that's literally the education that they're taught and they're taught that's okay that's fine families come in different shapes these families exist we should respect difference that's all they're taught that's correct obviously people should support that in terms of though and I suppose the caveat I would add I mean that's why as I said George Galloway is an archery actually and no progressive should ever support him is there will be a narrative that Muslim disillusionment is not being driven by legitimate concerns namely issues like Palestine and Kashmir namely their sense of Islamophobia not being dealt with within the Labour Party their sense of being marginalised by the Labour leadership and the Labour Party not taking them for granted but rather by homophobia and anti-Semitism and that's simply just not true because anyone who's been to Batley and Spen will testify that when they speak to local Muslim voters that actually those issues are not being raised at all simultaneously ever issues like those I've just mentioned are in fact some have told me that the only incidents they've heard of people voters making homophobic comments about Kim Leadby to come from old white voters now George Galloway actually in that speech may well be aiming at those kind of you know Lawrence Fox types I suppose in Batley and Spen but it would be a grave error to understand any problems significant problems the Labour Party suffered being as a result of being driven in any significant way by Muslim voters being homophobic and or anti-Semitic that doesn't mean as I've just done and you've done George Galloway should not be explicitly condemned and explicitly opposed by people on the left he's not our friend he should be treated as an enemy he's in league with profound reactionaries and we shouldn't throw minorities under a boss even if you think the Labour leadership deserves a punch in the nose but nonetheless you know that's the nuance I suppose that yes there's Birmingham anti-LGBT protest that opportunistically jumps in any bandwagon so further his agenda yes there is deeply reactionary elements of this charlatan this demagogue George Galloway but that's not the primary reason that Labour are suffering in any sense in Batley and Spen Muslim voters voted for Labour for years when Labour was introducing pro-LGBTQ policies so that's clearly not that overriding concern whatsoever it's the issues I've just raised and they also voted for Labour when they had a Jewish leader in the form of Ed Miliband sorry go on Ed Miliband actually is the only Labour leader to call himself a Zionist and Muslim voters still overwhelmingly voted for him that is interesting and I think it is super important because we're going to hear a load of bullshit over the next couple of days basically if Labour loses to make that distinction between voters and the candidate because George Galloway is an objectionable candidate in many many ways but many of the people voting for him are voting for him for very good reasons actually which is that on some issues he is talking in a way which means that it seems like he gives a shit about Muslim voters on issues such as Palestine and Kashmir and if Keir Starmer had been strong on those issues then yeah maybe George Galloway would have appealed a few homophobic voters off from any community from all communities in the area but he definitely wouldn't be mounting an effective challenge for his right now if Keir Starmer hadn't seemed so weak so wet when it came to these foreign policy issues so it will be the case that ultimately if Labour loses they only have themselves to blame and anyone who I think Owen's actually put this very well in a recent video on his YouTube channel the people who are saying oh if Labour loses it's because of reactionary voters we don't want them anyway one that's electorally stupid but two it is cynical, opportunistic and is intended solely to get Keir Starmer off the hook even if the byproduct is to increase Islamophobia in Britain which I think is a real danger if some of these Starmerites can't I suppose get some perspective here in terms of dirty tricks we should also say Galloway has said that Kirkley's council which is controlled by Labour have taken down 2,000 of his posters from lamp posts so I mean it seems like there is a complex story on the ground but the fact that George Galloway is I suppose promoting homophobic dog whistles uncontroversial it's difficult to argue with that let's go to a comment to Ders Cantwell with 10 euros Michael can you wish this bourgeois reactionary centrist a happy birthday yes happy birthday you bourgeois reactionary centrist I hope you have a lovely day I don't know what's a particularly bourgeois centrist reactionary thing to do for your birthday I don't know you'll have to tell us in the comments next story Labour's problems in Batley and Spen have led to some soul searching on the part of Starmer's allies in the Labour Party yet if a recent report by Paul War in the Huffington Post is anything to go by they already seem out of ideas now this article has loads of quotes from sources close to Keir Starmer about what should be inferred from any loss in Batley and Spen and what changes he should make in that event this is where they're all putting forward their ideas for the future of the Labour Party after Batley and Spen now it's not positive reading in one section Starmer's woodenness is discussed so Paul War writes one Tory minister says the Batley by-election is proving that Starmer is the Tory's biggest asset his problem is he fails the pub test the minister says with Tony Blair and Boris whether you're working class or whether you're a posh you could imagine them having a conversation with you and that they enjoy the job Starmer's a bit like Gordon Brown or Teresa they looked haggard, tired, grumpy and uncomfortable worst of all he looks a bit aloof now in response to this from a Tory minister a senior Starmer ally hit back this isn't bloody fully open so it's a bit hard for him to pass or fail a pub test that's exactly why we think that once he's out and about people will see the real care and like what they see the Piers Morgan life stories where Starmer talked about his family life and upbringing was just the start now this answer is so so pathetic right the whole point of the pub test which is I mean maybe it's overstated in its importance but it's this idea that you see a politician you think they're a human you thereby I think they might make decisions which are partly in my interest because they seem like me they seem like they might understand my lives that isn't to say literally they you know if to prove that you're a decent guy in a pub you have to literally go to the pub with all of the voters that's not going to be a successful strategy because however many pubs you visit between now and 2024 it's not going to be enough people you sit with to win an election I mean probably they'd say in their defence well maybe it would be people watching him in the pub talking to other people again that's not how this works these impressions are not created by literally him sitting in a pub drinking a pint the whole point is that you have to in all of your interactions seem somewhat personable which is something that Kirsten was not capable of doing because he's so wooden and because he seems to have such little self-confidence when it comes to what he's for and what he believes which I mean is quite easy to see through now when it comes to what changes would be made other than pubs opening a lot of focus in this piece and from the sources that Paul War talks to refer to the prospect of changing the rules to elect a new leader if and when Starmer resides now Paul War writes some centrist believe that Starmer's best hope of proving his party has changed would be to tear up its member-led leadership rules and return to an electoral college that restored MPs alongside unions and members it's too late to mobilize such a radical reform for this autumn and it may need unite the union to elect centrist Gerard Coyne to have a chance but there is chatter of a special conference next spring to carry it out so they're saying the best hope of proving the party has changed which is the only analysis they can have the reason Kirsten was losing is because people didn't like the last guy even though less of them are voting for Kirsten they did the last guy anyway to prove that they have changed what they should do is change the leadership rules that's what will inspire people across the country interestingly in the same article he suggests there are apparent problems with that plan other than the obvious ones that no one is going to be particularly impressed because you change some internal leadership rules because no one cares about this stuff the practical problems with it are interesting a senior Starmer aid told Paul War it's a terrible dilemma one of the big most essential ways that Kier has to define himself is by changing the leadership rules to ensure that this great party never goes back to being run by cranks but the problem he's got is as soon as he does that he could face a challenge from the right or competent centre it's a total catch 22 everyone recognises that if you remove the threat from the left it gives you the chance to govern at the same time it makes you massively vulnerable because suddenly people can challenge you without worrying about Richard Bergen ending up in charge so he's saying there look obviously obviously what the electorate want to happen is for Kier Starmer to change the leadership rules but if he does that they'd actually be a risk that he could then lose a leadership contest with the right because the right are going to be able to mop up support from MPs and potentially from the trade unions which many of them are now run by centrists our final quote for you is to suggest that despite this apparent conundrum that he needs a leadership election to prove he's changed but that could also lead to defeat from the right many sources are still convinced that Starmer's top priority should be a showdown with the left one MP told Paul War he needs some drama a big moment to show what he stands for he can show leadership by saying there are some people in my party who believe things the country will never accept and I'm going to take them on the country will understand that Owen I want to bring you in on this you're obviously in contact with more labour MPs than I am as well so it would be I'll be interested to know if you think this is seriously all labour MPs or the labour right have up their sleeves saying the way that we can win the next by election is by proving we can attack the left more than we already have potentially while Starmer drinks more pints in pubs with cameras around the critique of the left that they always had was that the left only cared about factional control and domination of the labour party and they didn't have a vision for the country and whatever critique people want to make about Keir Starmer's predecessor a lack of vision for the country and a lack of policies in order to achieve it is not a valid or legitimate critique now this their claims and it's pure projection of all they all this all they care about is factional control and they don't care about power in the country no faction in the history of the labour party does that apply to more than those who have surrounded Keir Starmer now I think the way of understanding what's happened is Keir Starmer is not someone who has a clear political vision he doesn't he's he speaks to people from left to right in the parliament Labour Party they all agree the guys got no politics he's not being in the labour party because he was a civil servant he doesn't understand internal labour politics and through naivety or whatever you want to call it he allowed himself to be surrounded by ultra-factional beasts who are walking ice picks who are the one thing that makes their heart beat a little bit faster isn't taking on the Tories it's crushing the so-called trots who has elite labour report underlined they think is anyone to the left of Gordon Brown in fact some of them probably think Gordon Brown's a trot so what they are planning no question they don't have any vision for the country except some of them think Tory economic policy is too left-wing they opposed increasing corporation tax and they think they think Tory spending is frivolous or whatever a lot of these people they don't have a clear vision for the country but they do have a vision for the labour party and that is to put the left in a box and that doesn't just mean the left they see the soft left as complicit as useful idiots of the so-called hard left and the legitimisers of magical political thinking as they see it so what they try to do the hard left is they they try to purge not just people who remain from the left Andy McDonald for example Shadow Employment Cabinet Secretary Kat Smith and maybe Marsha da Cadova then the left remaining members of the Shadow Cabinet but also John Ashworth Lisa Nandi it's even possible to call a soft left anymore people like that they are going to get rid of in favour of raging right wingers but also what they are planning is to change the leadership rules to bring back the electoral college and to increase the threshold of nominations that any leadership candidate needs in order to become a candidate and they will try and change the rules on selections to ensure they can stitch up selections to make sure not even soft left let alone lefties ever become parliamentary candidates ever again they are hoping that Gerard Coyne of course wins the race to become United General Secretary which will make their plans much much easier that's all they've got so I think this is a slightly existential problem here because we've got the worst of all worlds Labour's heading for dozens of its seats being lost if we look at the Harley Pool by-election alone by-elections of course Labour's oppositions are supposed to do better than general elections that means Namu MP, Angela Rainer seat gone Ed Miliband gone Yvette Cooper gone Ian Lavery gone John Trickett you could go literally dozens of MPs going for the Labour Party losing dozens of MPs going completely right-wing on economic policy and probably just going on about antisocial behaviour and stitching up party democracy and stitching up the leadership rules so they're one of the left stands again that's the lot, that's what they've got planned so I think this is a big do or die moment approaching and I think this is why an appeal to the soft left is important here because it's not just the left they want to put in a box that they're out for the soft left who as I've said they think are useful idiots and the legitimisers of magical political thinking and that's their plan they think Kirstarm is a loser the right of the Labour Party and many of the people around him they will get rid of him as soon as they think it's politically possible to do so when they've got rid of the leadership they've changed the leadership rules to make sure one of their own Jess Phillips where Streeting for example can become leader of the Labour Party instead Peter Mandelson, Sierra Rogers from Labour List asked if he was the role he had and they said he has no formal role but we knew that he doesn't have a formal job title but his role is a fact I know it's a fact he was ringing people after the Hartlepool by-election on that weekend trying to recruit them as special advisors for right wing Shadow Cabinet Ministers who were never appointed because the Angela Rayner thing blew up in their face they couldn't do what they planned to do I know that Shadow Cabinet Ministers complained about the terrible lines they were fed after Hartlepool by-election and they were told Peter Mandelson had written them and I also know that of course the new replacement to for Ben Nunn who is there the director of comms the temporary guy is a long-standing Mandelson aide so we can see what's happened Peter Mandelson has become dominant within the Labour Party he's filled that vacuum and whether it's complicity, naivety it doesn't even matter anymore Keir Starmer whose leadership they regard as dead they're keeping him afloat until they can stitch up the rules the Labour Party is heading under these people to a burning calamity that will make the 2019 election look like an electoral dystopia I mean it is a Armageddon electorally speaking with the left crushed so time's running out The stakes are high that's also a great segue to our final section which relates to a super chat we've got from Keir and Buckley with a fiver asks if Keir Starmer is removed as Labour leader who is the likely replacement and who would you personally prefer to see Labour leader I'm not going to answer that question yet because it is the topic of our final section as ever thank you so much for your super chats we do really appreciate them as you probably know the most important way to support Navarra media to make sure that we can keep going and keep expanding is to become a regular supporter you can do that at navarramedia.com slash support and as you probably know if you watch this show regularly we ask for the equivalent of one hour's wage a month we really do appreciate it our final story a YouGov poll commissioned by Sky News has found that 69% of Labour members believe Andy Burnham is a Labour leader than Keir Starmer Andy Burnham has impressed people over the past year with his willingness to take on the government and speak in an emotionally engaging way two qualities distinctly lacking when it comes to Keir Starmer the only consolation for Starmer with these polls is that Asmayer and not an MP Burnham is not eligible to stand against him so there is this unfortunate position where all of these members can see this candidate he's the one person or one of the few people who cannot take on that role because he's not in Westminster the rest of the poll also had some interesting results so what the YouGov polling showed was that 65% of Labour members believe Labour are on course to lose the next general election that's compared to only 21% who believe Labour will win it however despite that despite the fact that people aren't seeing the direction of the party as leading Labour into government the majority are still willing to give Starmer a chance so even if the party lose the battle and spent by election YouGov suggests that 41% of people want Keir Starmer to stand down and 48% say he should stay that's obviously very close but there is the plurality in favour of him staying on even if Labour lose in battle and spending we talked about how historic it would be that election no opposition leader in over a century has lost two by elections to the governing party still members according to YouGov are willing to give him a chance now also what will probably be reassuring to Keir Starmer from this polling is that the opposition to him seems pretty divided now as we've discussed on this show the most I suppose open opposition to Keir Starmer at this point in time comes from the left in the party because of all the promises he broke in his ten pledges yet the polling shows that while the left might be most opposed to Starmer it's not clear they would be in a position to take advantage if there were any future leadership contest so Sky report that in the event of a sudden leadership contest drawn from existing MPs Home Affairs select committee chair would get the highest level of support of members with 35% of Labour members saying she would get preference Shadow Foreign Secretary Lisa Nandi is second on 13% Deputy Leader Angela Rayner on 12% Former leadership contender Rebecca Long Bailey on 11% and left-wing stalwart Richard Bergen on 6% now that's not the most reassuring statistic to look at if you are on the left of the Labour Party if you're thinking at this point look this is just a YouGov poll maybe it's wrong maybe it's completely meaningless I can't guarantee that's not the case they might have messed up here but it is worth pointing out that in the past they have tended to be fairly accurate this is a tweet from Ben Walker from the new statesman and he points out that in past leadership contests YouGov have been fairly successful at predicting what Labour members are thinking so in 2020 YouGov polling had Starmer on 53% and Long Bailey on 31% the actual result was Starmer on 56% and Long Bailey on 28% in 2016 YouGov had Corbyn on 62% and Owen Smith on 38% the actual result was exactly that 62% for Corbyn and 38% for Smith then we can go back to 2015 then YouGov had Corbyn on 53% Burnham on 21% and Cooper on 18% and the result was Corbyn on 60% Burnham on 19% and Cooper on 17% it seems like their pool of Labour members is fairly representative obviously this polling was done towards the end of a leadership campaign there isn't even a leadership campaign now so this is more hypothetical but still somewhat worrying if you're on the Labour Left and my question given this polling Owen is let's put aside whether or not a leadership challenge will happen and how it would happen because we've got that coming up next but first should the Left want a leadership challenge when it's not particularly clear that we'd win it I suppose it's slightly different interpretation of those figures because I think they're worse from the leadership than they actually look because we don't know if Labour are going to lose battle in spend I think it's important to make that clear they might not lose in battle in spend but there's a difference when something is hypothetical in someone's head and when it actually happens so people saying, Labour members saying the fact that basically it's even in terms of those who think Keir Starmer should resign if lose that's before the shock of a potential loss that's before the shock of whatever the scale is of that potential loss and it's also before anyone's made any consistent argument for Keir Starmer to resign that hasn't really happened, the only person who's actually done that is Andrea Donnis who is I would say a very eccentric player I figure I didn't call for Keir Starmer, I do think he should resign myself after battle in spend if Labour lose don't lose it's different, if Labour lose I think he should resign but I haven't made that argument and most that argument hasn't been publicly had in the pages of newspapers and all the rest of it so I think the dynamic changes depending on the scale and depending on the argument being made also to be honest Labourism instills a sense of loyalty amongst much of the membership in whoever the leader is so even if they don't think they're doing well before a very important election they might not feel that willing to tell even a pollster privately that they think the leader should resign in those circumstances to be honest I think this shows a membership that is very dissatisfied with the leadership I think in terms of Andy Burnham a lot of people, whatever his politics there's a lot of people on the left who do obviously want Andy Burnham to be leader I think Andy Burnham would have to be very clear about what his vision is before the left would actually indulge that myself as much as I like the kind of personal level but actually I think it's different when candidates set out their stalls take Yvette Cooper on 35% a lot of people might look about and think what's the point but actually 35% that's the right of the membership kind of co-hearing around one candidate really and that's before she sets out a stall she'd be Kirsten Armour all over again she'd have the exact same drawbacks by the way technocratic, no vision for the country and as soon as she sets out her pitch as she did in 2015 where she bombed I think she would do very badly again and I think if you have a contest which is about vision who would be this has been an experiment in a leadership having no vision whatsoever and actually Labour needs to believe in something again and I think the candidate who makes the argument the most convincingly would be in pole position to win so actually I don't personally I look at that and think those are worse for Kirsten Armour those figures then I mean I agree the left hasn't made any case again for any candidate and that would have to happen again so again note there's not exactly being some big high visible candidate making a clear case as an alternative to Kirsten Armour so I think everything would change I mean after the EU referendum result the youth of polling of the Labour membership the first poll was pretty bad for Jeremy Corbyn but that changed in the course of the leadership contest because he could put forward his pitch Owen Smith put his terrible pitch and disintegrated as the campaign went along and I think Kirsten I mean I would be surprised if he stood in such a leadership contest myself because I think he would be absolutely destroyed in that leadership contest because what would his pitch be he couldn't say honesty because no one thinks he stuck by his pledges electability that's dead charismatic I'm sorry principled there's no principles attached to this leadership it's synthesized every possible bad element of any leadership there's not really a case to be made so I think whoever stands against him would have a very good or whichever candidates would have a very good chance and I don't think he would put himself forward if a leadership contest actually happened personally the challenge for the left is if he doesn't resign and I think the argument should be if Labour lose there should be a very loud argument for him to resign if he doesn't if you need 40 MPs to nominate a candidate the left would struggle with that no question and also the left would not necessarily agree who the candidate should be Angela Reina would have a good chance there I know lots of people have different opinions about Angela Reina so I'm not going to go into that but he who wheels them or she who wheels the knife never wears a crown the old adage of politics so if that was going to happen there'd have to be a stalking horse put forward if Kirsten Armour resigns then you need 20 MPs and the left would then have a very good chance of putting his candidate forward a lot of people would say John McDonnell would be the obvious candidate in that particular circumstance and I think he would be a very good have a very good chance of winning a leadership contest to be honest with you I think you really got to the question that was asked in the super chats as well so I've got a very much appreciate you distilling the answer to that super chat let's quickly look at the speculation in the press but who may be considering a challenge as Owen says to launch a challenge against an incumbent leader one needs 20% of the Parliamentary Labour Party to nominate you that at the moment would be 40 MPs were he to resign you'd only need 10% of the PLP or 20 MPs now the times have suggested that Dawn Butler, Lisa Nandi, Angela Reina and Yvette Cooper could all be considering a challenge against Kirsten Armour or at least throwing their hat in were a contest to begin unsurprisingly I suppose Kirsten Armour for his part has indicated he will defy any calls to quit if the party loses the by-election now that for me I don't know how seriously we should take that because no leader is ever going to say yeah if I lose I'm going to resign I mean sometimes I say that when it comes to referendums but no one's ever going to say that when it comes to a by-election yes if I lose this by-election I'll stand down of my own accord even if in the back of Kirsten Armour's mind he will resign because I don't think the right will let him but even if he was planning on it he wouldn't tell the mirror he was going to do it so I would take that with a pinch of salt I mean very quickly if they lose what do you think of the chances that Labour has a new leader by the end of the year I suppose It's a tough one because having spoke to lots of Labour MPs including those who back to Kirsten Armour there's actually a broad consensus that his leadership is doomed a lot believe very strongly that he needs to go but there's division about the mechanics of actually getting there about who the candidate should be and a lot of people think it would an operation will come into play to defend Kirsten Armour draw him up which particularly come from the right so time would potentially be of the essence so it's difficult to know because it really does depend on the left and the soft left putting their differences aside because some of those differences have opened working together in order to ensure that the beginning the strategy should be voices particularly MPs who back to Kirsten Armour in the leadership contest saying and this is what they say to me that some of them will privately including Shadow Ministers go to Kirsten Armour and tell him they call this the men in grey suits do you want to go down in history as the manager of the Labour Party in that situation what normally happens is a bunker is set up to protect the leader where they just stop MPs being able to talk to the leader to stop that from happening so I suppose will they then go public and demand his resignation and maybe will there be resignations from the front bench how much of an impact will that have it will depend on a lot of factors and it will be depend on whether they feel paralysed by who the candidates should be and the mechanism to get there I think there's a very significant chance that by the end of the year Kirsten Armour will not be leader of the Labour Party I said to their team in January that they were heading for a leadership crisis within 6 to 12 months and I think actually on that was pretty pretty accurate but I think it depends whether basically it ends up with the right changing the leadership rules and then getting rid of them and putting someone even worse in and that is a very real possibility so I would say a big if you're on the left a big big part of the strategy now is to appeal to the soft left to get them to speak out the people will be back to Kirsten Armour back in 2020 to say this isn't working you've got to stand down for the sake of the Labour Party you're going to destroy the Labour Party if you carry on as leader and then maybe he'll resign if not there needs to be some stalking horse put forward in order to bring the leadership to a close if Labour is in battle and spend it's going to be hard but I think this is do or die because I think they're going to shut down democracy and leave the Labour Party a burning skip if the left don't get them back together So it's going to be very interesting days and weeks ahead for the Labour Party which means it is a great time to be subscribed to the Navarra Media YouTube channel and the Owen Jones YouTube channel I have to say your channel has really great battle and spend content at the moment you've got that documentary on it which we've shown clips of on the show and you've got interviews with George Galloway, Kim Leadbeater and Andy Burnham so lots to chew on if you want more battle and spend content I suppose to pass the time tomorrow while the people of battle and spend are voting for now Owen Jones has been an absolute pleasure as always having you on tonight's show It's a pleasure Michael C.C. and it's been a pleasure having you watching the show tonight thank you for your comments and your super chat oh just one last minute one Joshua Youngerman with a $4 donation Southgate for Labour leader here again if anyone could put someone on on the Commons benches Andy Burnham or Southgate would probably be quite high up there anyway one for another show for now you've been watching Tiskey Sour on Navarra Media Good night