 Hi, my name is Leon Roeb currency trader and trading coach at trading 180.com and in this video I'm gonna talk about a Trade that went for a thousand pips. I had done the analysis a few weeks ago And I'll go over really the trade idea the technicals behind it and In in in this video now. I just want to you know, say out right, you know I didn't say it was going to go for a thousand pips But you know at the end of the day nobody knows how far a trade will go or with any Individual trade will actually work out right single trade. No one knows you can have a really good trade set up Technically fundamentally and it might go against you right, but that's not the point It's really, you know the aim and objective of trading is really to follow the process and You know good risk management good risk reward and when you're right to capitalize on those trades, right? So it doesn't even really matter about win rates, you know Retail traders gets hung up on things like win rates all the time and it's really has nothing to do with even win rates So in in so far as just understanding that when you're right try to win as big as possible but um, you're straightly it was on the Australian dollar Japanese yen and Yeah, I had I had made of created a video on the March the 7th for the private members group. I generally do a technical analysis video Not the one that I deal for YouTube, but I generally do one for the the the members group and I was saying at the time Pointing out at a time on the 7th when I did the analysis that we were waiting for prices to really come down into this Zone here before looking at a long trade now before I get into the technicals I just want to put I guess everything in into, you know the context context really in our group is understanding The fundamentals first right and the risk sentiment and why you want to buy a currency and why would you would want to sell a currency right because this is The way the market works It's not, you know driven by technical analysis and I don't want to make it into a polarizing debate because ultimately To get to to make the best decisions really we should be combining both right both fundamentals and technicals But for me it starts with the fundamental analysis now In our discord group, we've got Several channels, you know, you can scroll through etc for those of you in it You'll know but those of you are not One of the sections we have is fundamental analysis and we look at bank analysis resources and research but we also post news articles, right and Australia right so you can go literally go back through this if you want to if you ever join but you can look at, you know, the what what is happening over You know a certain period of time By looking at certain news articles and then looking at what happened on the price charts, right so One of the articles I posted on the 1st of March right here was from pound sterling live and You know in a risk-off environment generally traders will typically, you know buy safe haven currencies like the Japanese yen and the Swiss Frank But we in the group were looking at buying the Australian dollar because really every I guess risk event should be treated differently, right? Yes, typically we know what what happens and things like that But we need to keep our finger on the pulse and like I said every risk-off event is shouldn't be treated the same It shouldn't be a case of all well, you know risk off. We've got to buy, you know The Japanese yen and the Swiss Frank there's there's a bit more to it than that anyways So the idea and then just again the reason why I point out is the first of March because just to show you that it I did this before the analysis and I'm going to go into even the video as well That I do did for the for the members about buying the or the reason why I was looking to buy the Australian dollar against the Japanese yen, right so We've got several things highlighted here and Surging natural gas prices followed the commencement of forced-go invasion, right? So we knew that we were you know in a risk-off Environment but because of What was happening natural gas prices was boosting the value of Australia's most third Important export commodity right and supports the country's terms of trade Australia is a net energy export or liquefied natural gas exports are expected to reach You know, they are seriously 63 billion Australian dollars this year says Morris and One of the one of the quotes amongst everything here was recent developments have have been supportive for the Australia's key commodity prices and because Australia is a is a commodity seen as a commodity currency is a boosting commodity prices generally will help The or boosts and gives value to the Australian dollar, right any commodity currencies. So Global rising inflation is also likely to encourage an ongoing pro Aussie Dollar shift in stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia. So fundamentally if inflation starts to rise the Rba the central Bank of Australia Generally will look to high crates right if it goes above their 2% target so It says indeed the central bank has already ended quantitative easing, which is positive again for the Australian dollar Governor Philip Lowe said higher rates in 2022 are now a plausible scenario. So again hiking rates is generally positive for the For the Australian dollar the markets pivot towards more aggressive hike expectations have provided the natural source of support for the Australian dollar and You know what what traders generally don't understand about fundamental analysis as well Is it's not going to forex factory and looking at you know news data points and when if it comes out good you buy if it comes That bad yourself Fundamental analysis is all about buying the rumor right being ahead of the curve and we Right act trading 180 a generally ahead of the curve. I'm not saying that we win every single trade That's not what we're talking about but in general we Understand where prices are likely to go in the medium to long-term based on our fundamental analysis. So You know we see Bank of America tells clients They are aware of the risks for a surprise hawkish pivot for the Rba sooner than we currently expect so again There was rumors that they may start to hike sooner rather than later, which again, which is all bullish, right? So fundamentally the trade idea was there right to buy the Australian dollar and Again going into our Trading videos private trading videos channel Again for those of you who are in the group you're under steam You'll have access to all of these videos, but for those of you who are not watching this on YouTube I have hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of videos right all here all documented all dated You can go through each video and it goes for all the analysis So a lot of traders will say oh well, he's calling us on hindsight bias and nonsense like that You can go back check, you know the records all it's all here, you know all these videos anyways And back to this year where are we now We are so the 7th of March here. We are technical analysis So we do our weekly technical analysis video right here and I've got it already lined up It's also I think a 42 minute video. I recorded it on the Monday Just to get again in case you know, I just want to go to this one and then maybe go back to that one and you know played a video So from here go back to you know go to 30. I think it's like 38 minute 38 We'd talk about The Aussie dollar. Sorry one sec Second just music So I'm talking about the CAD Swiss there Buying the CAD Swiss and you can see from there and that's where I bought by the way I know we're talking about the Australian dollar Japanese yen But I was saying about that's where I ended up buying and you can see where the CAD is, you know CAD yen is right now So again buying commodity currencies You know, I was I was doing right so here we are so let's get to 38 right so let's look And make sure this is high quality but the quality up to 1080p Right zoom in a bit as well Make sure that screen is full. All right, so you can see Really and listen to I guess the analysis Of what I was talking about with the Australian dollar, right? I'll press play a CPR as well Got David Demons on You've got a level Right here What you've got No touches of that zone. You've got So that whole area there trades will be getting short especially understanding the risk sentiment around it It was a couple short trades here thinking yeah, yeah, you know risk off means by the The the Japanese yen over the Australian dollar. They got short here all of a sudden They've been caught right caught on the wrong side. So now it's a case of looking for that You know to pee and then the earth in the art. I think that's decent For a trade again, we go down into the know an intraday time frame chart. Yeah Thoughts of this decent. So I think any kind of pull back into this zone here I think it's going to be nice for a for a long trade Right so here we are Calling it basically from that zone Anything within that zone is going to be nice for a long trade All right, so from the top of that Demons that zone from 84 the round number You know coming down into that, right? So From that perspective this zoom down, I guess into you know bit of an hourly time frame chart This was where it was. So this is the you know currently this that was the seventh Which was a Monday and you know waiting for prices to come down into you know that zone, right? and you can see prices came down into the zone and Eventually actually went for You know a thousand pips. I think yeah, so I think it was a thousand to the high yep 1,050 pips crazy now again. I'm not saying that you know, I predicted this 1,050 pit move none nothing of the sort But it was just as long as you get the direction correct, right? if you can get the direction right and you know trail your stops hold on move your move your stops accordingly and Understand why prices are likely to go higher in you know the medium to long term This is what you know This is what can happen again Nobody knows how far prices will go if prices will go, you know that far But it's just goes to show that if you get the fundamentals right if you get the risk sentiment, right? If you understand if you put all the pieces together also as well I did a video recently regarding on YouTube regarding the pros and cons of fundamental analysis One second. I'm gonna go to my YouTube channel, right? It was this one here Should you apply a forex fundamental analysis? The pros and cons one of the things I say in that video is that one of the pros of Understanding fundamental analysis is that it gives you the confidence to hold trades, right? Because if you understand where the big money is is is going in the medium to long term Then you can capture moves like this, right? You're not gonna get you're not gonna take this trade and then get out for maybe just a silly two to one Or you know a one-to-one type trade and when I say silly I mean it's silly if you're getting out early knowing that there is you know potentially a Fundamental move on the horizon, right? If you don't know any better, then you don't know any better, right? If you just go in for technicals and that's your strategy then fine But if you're you know if you don't understand the fundamentals and the risk sentiment Then you're always gonna just be literally scalping and taking these These these these trades Not understanding the full potential and giving you the confidence as to why you should want to hold You know These trades and these trade ideas in an environment and again this could have only went for 100 pips might only went for 200 or 300 pips nobody knew that it was gonna go for a thousand pips But if you you know just trading strategy do it accordingly and whether you trail your stop or However, you manage a trade It is what it is, but but yeah, that was pretty much the the trade idea It was a capture pain relief a level CPR trade where you know trade is a court going short here This is the pain and then we've got some relief, you know around here Understanding the supply and demand equation in and around is sown and then you know We let the fundamentals and risk sentiment value Takeover right it goes where it goes. Nobody can predict the future. It is what it is And you know, this could have been you know again for anyone who held all the way up at the highs You know potentially took profit at the highs and bought at the absolute lows You know, there was there was a definitely at 1,050 pit move in there You didn't have to capture all of it You could have captured maybe a thousand and could have captured 300 400 500 even 100 pips But generally, you know fundamentally you you know, we want it to be long. So just breaking down a trade idea And you know one that worked out, you know really nicely again wind rates don't matter if when you're right You can capitalize and make you know 10 15 20 to 1 type trades You know losing doesn't doesn't really concern me so much people say, oh, what's your win rate? That's nonsense doesn't matter as you know, it doesn't doesn't factor into, you know, the profitability If you understand if you look into whole trades for the medium to long-term term anyways guys Hope that helps take care and I'll speak to you soon