 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim sawness and dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread? That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire Dot com where today we are taking a look at week number nine by talking to Aaron Kate Dolan of fan dual getting her thoughts on these week nine games and the weird Machinations at play with everything that's going across going on across the NFL for this week. My name is Jim sawness I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire dot com joined here as always by dr. Ed Fang You can find his work over the power Inc.com Ed Weird situation this week because it was announced that Aaron Rogers has positive for COVID will not play against the chiefs That was going to be the premier game on this slate and suddenly We're guessing we're getting data on what bookmakers think about Aaron Rogers versus Jordan Love from a spread perspective I find these situations fascinating What how you doing today? What's your view on that game? I'm doing pretty well. I found out about that right before I record a podcast with Professor everybody gross yesterday, so we have lots to talk about there. I think it's pretty interesting. I Mean, I think when you have an elite quarterback and you go to an unknown essentially a replacement level player I'll be at a first round pick, you know seven points for me So I had I had Kansas City by about to you just stop you know, maybe I'm so anyways you get Kansas City by about nine and There's a lot of other issues. So I actually I actually bet Kansas City minus seven yesterday and That was before I knew that Devonte Adam I thought I presumed Devonte Adams was gonna play right and I also think we're forgetting that Jair Alexander is out We kind of remember that that first week against Cincinnati and then we've kind of forgotten that one of the best corners In the NFL is out Kevin King didn't play last week and yeah, I think there's a whole host of problems for the Packers Robert Tanya and is out and You know Kansas City has their own issues and we can talk about that as well, but they're relatively healthy Especially on the defensive side of the ball right now. So yeah, I mean, I took Kansas City minus seven And we'll see where the market goes. So we had talked about this I think on air yesterday about how I was like adjusting for Jordan Love and I made some readjustments today and I was like Concerned that my numbers were saying that there was still value on the Packers Not enough where I want to bet it because it's six or seven and a half But I think the reason why that was happening is I'd forgotten that my numbers had the Packers figured by one So if you take Packers minus one and adjust down seven points That actually is Packers plus six like that actually does great out to be seven points I was concerned my stuff was off not realizing that because I was saying to bet the Packers before It's gonna say bet the Packers again. You even have the same adjustment. The problem is that I Love I want to bet that because I don't want to like I don't want to tie my Financial well-being to Jordan Love and his first career start on the road against the Chiefs and the Chiefs defense They're flawed as we talked about Jordan's a couple weeks ago. Yeah, but against bad quarterbacks Taylor Heineken and Daniel Jones They've been fine. They've actually been okay in those games And I think that's the other reason why I'm hesitant to bet it despite my number saying that the Packers are interesting Right, I think that's a good point. I think defensive performance is just volatile period This is the I mean essentially the same secondary that was decent last year Took them pretty far. So actually, yeah, all the way to Super Bowl. Yeah Yeah, I mean, I don't really understand why defensive forms. I mean, it's in the past offense is in the secondary, but I think those things are hard to predict and I think defensive performance is in season is way less predictable than offensive performance and I think I mean the Chiefs are I mean, they're only going up from wherever I have them now I think I have them in the bottom five I think I'm in the bottom two when I look at adjusted passing success rate on defense. So Yeah, I don't know. I just I don't think they're that bad. I think that a Lot of it is the quarterbacks. They faced they faced I mean bakers now bake, but he was healthy at the time. They faced Hanna Hill They faced Josh Allen. They faced just a bunch of really good quarterbacks and It's possible. We didn't factor that in enough. So anyway, we'll see how that goes down We'll talk more about that game too with Aaron Kate Dolan again You can find her on Twitter at Aaron Kate Dolan She works at Fandall and she is the host of girls who bet on the Fandall YouTube page most Wednesdays at 8 p.m Or 8 8 or 8 30 over on the Fandall YouTube page You can find her there with live moods talking about the NFL and talking betting over there We're gonna her thoughts on week number nine and also these backup quarterback weird situations We'll talk the tides of no Derek Henry and more later on we also had Ben Stevens a sports Grid on yesterday to break down college football week number 10 We talked to Ben about those games and also his thoughts on the college football playoff rankings and its implications on the futures market You'd find that by searching for covering the spread Wherever you get your podcast while you're there hit subscribe and also leave a rating interview If you like what you hear before we get to Aaron though Gotta go back to last week and recap NFL side of things and a nice week for our guest Kevin Cole Covering the past Get Kevin Cole on a preview week eight in the NFL You can find Kevin on Twitter at Kevin Cole PFF and check out his podcast unexpected points and Kevin like I said Really nice week the one he did not hit. I also had this one was the Dolphins plus 13 and a half against the bills It was close. They they were down by six with four minutes left The bills were driving the Dolphins held them to a field goal and their terrible defense held for once I was like, yes, let's party made it a nine-point game The Dolphins needed to just prevent the bills to score another touchdown to cover My concern was a two would throw a pick six which he didn't he did throw a pick But it gave the ball back to the bills and Josh Allen that selfish selfish man scored a touchdown with a minute left It was a pretty big bummer That was always possible though with the bills and I talked about that Because they don't take their foot off the gas and they didn't so I'm impressed with how The Dolphins defense played in this game. I thought they played pretty well honestly This is always possible. I was still mad at but like it was it was always possible that could happen Right. I mean it was kind of a bummer because they had a third and whatever very close to the goal That was when Allen scored. Yeah, exactly. So, I mean, I think a lot of teams just I don't know Just run it right up the middle kick a field goal. You're up. I don't even remember how you'd be They were up by 12. No, no, I think you're up 11. So they'd be up nine. They're up nine Yeah, so you go up 12 and you're good, right? Right. So it would have been good for my spread too. Yeah Yeah, exactly except Allen takes it in the end zone, which you know, I mean, obviously you enhance your win probability the most By scoring there and so, you know, they did have incentive to do that It wasn't you know, it wasn't a situation where they could burn the rest of the clock By being conservative So but still like I said painful Yep, I was hoping josh would do that thing where you slide before the goal line like Let me a hand bud like we're both we're both here in Upstate slash central new york we can we can be brothers here josh and he decided it's not in my back So I remember that we ever meet I'll have stern words with josh allen But hey, it happens. It was always in the range of outcomes. You knew that was the case You should have jumped on the manning cast when he was on there You could have you guys could have talked about upstate new york and winter weight I can't watch when they have guests on though. Like it just it's just it's so disjointed with like people like the delay It drives me nuts. So I didn't watch him. Yeah. Oh, no, I enjoy it when marshawn's on i'll watch When pat mack if he's on i'll watch chris long like i'll watch with those guys But like oh come on man, tom brady making fun of how stupid defensive players are But like the delay kills me it kills me the delay between when they ask questions And when he talks it kills me like it just drives me nuts What delay between between the mannings and their guests? Yes I haven't even noticed it drives me nuts also In play by play people we trust got to keep them employed. So uh standing up for For my brothers and sisters in play by play and uh watching the traditional broadcast unless it's the mannings by themselves In which case i'll budge and uh go check them out to watch Peyton chow down on some chicken The first tip for kevin Was one that you both had actually that was the panthers plus three Close the two and a half. Uh, so you got off a key number there that came I think before the calvin early news. I could be wrong on that But I think it moved before the calvin early news. Uh, but the panthers They lost sam darlin this game. It didn't matter. They won the game outright by six So ed your bad quarterback injury luck occurred again But you still won the bet as did kevin So I feel like it's nice to to get the win even when the universe continues to inspire against you Yeah, I'll take it. Uh, I like betting against alana And it's kind of interesting, you know, they play the saints, uh, they go to the saints this week And I've made no adjustments for for the lack of james winston and i'm pretty much on the market value Which I think is You know kind of showing the uh the lack of respect for alana, which I think is warranted Yeah, I have that game at, uh, 6.2 and it's at six That's after I have a 5.8 or some of the adjustments in case trevor simian starts because I think that would be a slight downgrade But like they've been running the tason hill offense all year. It just wasn't with tason hill Like they've been so petrified of james that they've been running that offense all year and my number stage should be fair by six So we'll take it. I think that they should be fair by six and that's appropriate So I'm on agree with you and speaking to the saints kevin was on the saints plus five and a half against the bucks That one moved a bunch in his favor It didn't cross any key numbers but did close at saints plus four and again Quarterback injury that kevin won anyway, even without the pick six the saints were up two with a minute 41 left So hypothetically If the bucks score and get the extra point, it's a five point game But he added a five and a half So worst-case scenario he still wins that bet even the bucks had scored a touchdown So like he gets the the big cover here 36 27 win and like I was wary of that because like he was a weird setup for sure and I the bucks are a very good offense But like it just showed the entire game Like from from the first quarter on looked like kevin was gonna be right on that game We should cut tom buried for that pick six Are you allowed I mean I was like literally in shock. It's like what what just happened So I was watching it uh with my wife and her Made of honor they're both here and like, you know, they they're football aware for sure But like I was obviously paying very close attention. They both gasped through the pick Like yeah, because you you just expect radium. I think they were down too, right? Uh, yes. Yes, they were down to kind of expect them Get down and kick a field goal home win a game. Don't cover great. Let's go home. But you know what happened, Ed What touchdown trevor simian got in tom brady's head? He was so psychologically frazzled by the best quarterback in football that he couldn't function like simian comes in Next play brady throws a pick or like the next drive brady throws a pick I i'm pretty sure We should we should give touchdown trevor all the credit for this win Yeah, northwestern versus michigan right there go cats, man What nothing has ever gone wrong michigan versus northwestern. So we'll keep writing that one My other bet last week was the 49ers minus three and a half against the bears that would move to four and a half by kickoff Pretty close game in the second half and the bears actually did lead at one point, but 49ers went up eight with six minutes left. They were covering there Tacked on another field goal later on they won that game by 11 that got me the cover there Felt pretty good about that game even when they were down. I thought that the 49ers just seemed to be more in control it required a Really awesome, but kind of fluky play by jester fields to get that game closed So I felt good about that one regardless and got the win there So one to one week ed was one and oh kevin was awesome for last week We're gonna get to erin dolin to break down her thoughts on week nine and just one second But first the breeder's cup is set to begin this weekend And fandal is celebrating by giving you a chance to get in on the action with some enhanced odds starting today New players who sign up on fandal racing will get 20 to 1 odds on any horse to win a delmar race on friday or saturday That is any horse to win even the favorites the breeder's cup will be here before you know it So horse racing so bet horse racing right from your phone with a super easy to use fandal racing app now Five dollar max bet download the fandal racing app or visit racing dot fandal dot com for more details eligibility restrictions apply Covering the present Let's bring erin kate dolin into covering the spread to break down nfl week number nine erin It is a pleasure to have you back on the show for today. How are you doing in week nine? Yes, thank you for having me. It's been Okay, I feel like it's been a lot of roller coasters betting this season as it always is especially in the nfl Yeah, I mean the nfl can be Punishing to the best of betters that is for sure, but now we're in overlap season two because you Are an nhl fan you obviously pay attention to the nba too. Are you betting those during nfl season? Are you holding off until nfl season's done to dive into those? No, I definitely don't hold off in terms of that I mean with the nba starting for the first two weeks i'm very cautious But then I actually enjoy betting the nba the best out of any sport Although I love watching the nfl of course it rains king there But just with the nba you can kind of follow more trends and you can with you know teams having just one game a week And it's also tough because like if you have a losing week in the nfl you're waiting To the next four to seven days to get back on track at the nba at least you get like that stabilization From like a mental stability perspective to to buoy you a bit, which is always helpful So erin the tough part of a week nine is we got a lot of Unknowns on this slate because we got the packers of jordan love. We got the saints with somebody I don't know they haven't said to say some hello or trevor simian yet. We don't really know who we're starting there Could be anyone regret I mean, it's not gonna be in book. I know that part. So we know that much But they're unknowns here. So from a betting perspective erin Do you bet those games if you feel like you have a good grasp by how do you handle these situations where there's so much Unknown right now Yeah, so the short and answer is just to bet on another game. There are so many games that you can bet on So in this situation, I would just stay away from some of these games But then again Jets backup quarterback mike white led the nfl in week eight and passing yards four hundred and five to be exact And then of course led the jets to beat the bangles in that situation So there's no doubt that the quarterback is the most important position on the field So betting on either of the games that are kind of you know, there are question marks around the quarterback It's just a true true gamble. So I think if you do dare to be brave and bet on those games I would say take a hard look at who's actually going to be on the field For example in the Packers game. We still don't have davante adams back so You know, there are certain key players that you can kind of you know lean on when a quarterback is out But with some of them being out for example in the Packers game, you just you stay away from it with so much unknown I know it's kind of hard to say as somebody who's a betting analyst. There's just more games you can bet on So erin you did mention mike white He had an insane they had an insane 66 success rate compared to nfl average of about 46 last week We have one game of data on him. What how do you project the jets with the backup? I would say with the backup it could be a situation where it's a one-off game It's not like he played in multiple games to kind of get that he could just have one of those You know amazing games in his career and he's not going to be able to do that For example in this thursday night football game So I think again, you just have to wait and see how he plays in the next couple of games Yeah Yeah with mike white we got one game with Jordan love we have none. That's not a preseason data, which I was looking at yesterday because why not? But with tason hill, we do have at least some sort of samples. Let's say hypothetically erin We get confirmation that tason hill on friday is gonna start. We're gonna be good to go with that one He started four games last year. Do you put stock in that? Those were with michael thomas. So it's still a different situation there even like do you put any stock in that? Or how would you view the saint in that situation? Well, at least you have a sample size on him and a lot of the conversation was around tason hill or james Winston coming into the season and they were kind of battling that out So clearly he's still one of those top quarterbacks as opposed to the jets obviously mike white Nobody was really talking about him during preseason So at least you have some sample size But again, you make a good point about one of the key players being out and michael thomas So it's just something you're going to have to hope that maybe they are able to use him and utilize What he has done and go off that especially with some of the play callings and things like that, but Yeah, I mean again, it's just one of those situations more against bet on Just make it easier. Let's start touchdown trevor. Let's go with touchdown trevor teddy trev and uh lead the saints to glory other thing In play here erin is that we're in a week. We're in week nine. It means we got eight games sample on most teams and That's a decent sample for the nfl But we can still see a lot of fluky stuff in an eight game sample So How much for you are you leaning on what we've seen so far in 2021 to decide what you're going to bet on versus Your priors your preseason expectations of these teams. What is 2021 versus what you expect of going in? Yeah, so like I mentioned nfl rains king We all place Expectations on players and teams and looking at things on paper especially during preseason As you know, we already have teams that are having issues either in the locker room For example the browns or you know some health of key players like the titans derrick henry So from a macro perspective we can have expectations heading into the season But from a micro level of betting week to week you're really looking at certain matchups So I think if you go back to last season the stealers were hot at this time They were undefeated the arizona cardinals looked amazing Then they fell off towards the second half of the season So I think you always bet on what you are seeing on the field now as opposed to expectations Another good example of that would be the kansas city chiefs. They've been Not super bowl favorites as we expected With the way they have been playing as we've seen we can a week out So I think based on your week to week money on the current situation You really take a look at what the teams are doing now and you don't worry about what the expectation was coming into the season Sounds very reasonable. Let's get into some games. We've got Browns at bangles bangles two and a half point favorite unfaithful sportsbook You already mentioned the issues and the drama they are having on the offensive side of the ball Baker mayfield is probably not healthy got the diva wide receiver. How are you seeing this game? Drama city lately. I mean this morning for good adult Beckham jr. Was excused from practice for the second straight game His father is now involved which a lot of people are not enjoying I mean he only had one reception for six yards against the stealers when they lost last week Last week. So it seems like we're kind of in a situation with them with Clashes of ego. I know a lot of people are saying that he is being a diva and whatnot But I mean obviously one reception in six yards is not great for somebody who has the talent that he has The browns four and four 500 team baker mayfield is getting slammed for his ability to make plays He's not an inspiration to the team. A lot of people are talking about him And unfortunately, I did take him as my long shot mvp. I got about 17 to one It's now plus 50,000 from doing mvp which just goes to show how terrible the browns have been lately It was my sleeper pick and it's just not working out for me. But back to Cleveland It's not like obj is a determining factor in the browns offense like a derrick henry for the titans based on again He just had one reception against the stealers. So they have more weapons on their offense But based on mayfield's health and things like that and the drama that's ensuing right now I think you're going to kind of see just continued struggles from them Yeah, I think uh With with odell it's weird because the browns numbers with adam are better But it's also tough like how much stock we put into that because those all happen when baker was healthy He's very clearly not right now. And I think that that Really does make things pretty complicated because I just I don't have a relevant sample on baker mayfield injured without odell So it's hard to know where I turn here. So I think that's that's a pretty tough thing. So we are Not super into the browns right now. Is that enough for you to to lay the points of the bangles at minus two and a half? Or does that make this game a stay away for you? So I am taking the bangles to bounce back in this division matchup. Obviously in-state rivals are going to be at home They have better chemistry despite losing to the new york jets. I think that obviously is going to have to hurt But I mean on offense joey b still has to joe mixon t higgins de marches You have all these pieces and weapons. So I think their offense will be fine I think they had a one-off game where it was terrible to lose to the jets But this game again will probably come down to defense since the browns are able to figure some things out on offense It's hard to make a case that the bangles defense can shut down the browns offense Just again with the recent loss of the jets so for a pick the bangles laying two and a half Like you mentioned it stayed consistent on the book Which is a little confusing for me because I know a lot of people are betting on the bangles to be able to cover this So for me, I think i'm going to focus on the total it opened 46 got as high as 48 back down to 47 right now So I like the over in this one It is five and one in the browns last six games as an underdog as well So I think focusing on that rather than the spread of this game Sounds good. All right. Let's move on to Packers at Chiefs Clearly there was a little bit of news this week with the absence of Aaron Rodgers and And Diva quarterback drama so It is seven and a half and most places right now Kansas City is a favorite team that doesn't look right And so what are you seeing with this game? I think many are thinking this is an over reaction line And that is how most people are going to play this game Especially with the Chiefs having played Monday night football not looking like Super Bowl favorites as I've talked about already They did beat the Giants as they should have But you have to remember the Chiefs are a 1-4 against to spread at home this season They're also 1-7 against to spread this entire season Jordan Love stepping in is obviously a totally different situation because Had we have gone, you know, Patrick Mahomes versus Aaron Rodgers I still would have taken Aaron Rodgers in that situation just given that the Chief's defense is so bad But Jordan Love, I mean he's only played one season for the Packers He completed five of seven passes for 68 yards and the Packers blow out loss to the Saints So that was in week ones. We don't have a huge sample size on him either So I feel like it's terrible as a betting analyst to say pick another game But this is an over reaction line it continues to move out I think it's justified why it's moved out to seven and a half and I wouldn't be surprised If it continues to move out even further I think a lot of people are liking to back the Packers just saying that it's an over reaction line So I feel it's hard to really gauge where the public money is where the sharps are in terms of this game because obviously When we thought Aaron Rodgers was was in the Chiefs for minus two and a half And I was a little surprised by that line because I thought that game should have at least been a pick Um, even with the Chiefs at home And I think that what you're saying is correct We were talking about picking another game because like for me if I look at what my numbers say after I put an Adjustment for Jordan Love it says I should take the Packers But I also have a hard time getting there because you know, it's Six six points is what it says the number should be it's seven and a half That's not a ton of value relative to the spread and there is a lot of volatility in that And there are all situations where if a team's underdog like the the mistakes can compound and that can lead to A larger margin margin of victory even if the game does stay close throughout most of this game I think that's the concern for me. So when you're saying Pick another game I know that you like, you know, we don't want to say that but I feel like we have to hear like, you know, like I I feel the same way about it even though my numbers say I should bet the Packers Yeah, I think there's different factors that go into this game and obviously people that are running their models and really look Again numbers. It's not factoring in obviously Aaron Rodger I mean, it is factoring that he's not going to be playing but in the sense of kovid who else could have kovid leading up to sunday I'm sure they're keeping such a strong, you know, focus on that They are going to get back some key players Alan lizard. He was activated off the kovid 19 Reserve lift so I think that the value would probably be on the player props in this type of situation If you know somebody's not going to be in is somebody else on the other side of the ball going to have an awesome game because of that x y and z so the real Beddable markets that we're talking about in terms of spread total money line I would stay away from them in general and just kind of look at player props if you were going to bet into this particular game And I think what you mentioned with divante adds before is pertinent because you're right. He has not been activated yet. So that is Lingering and that is a concern if it's jordan love with no divante atoms That is a very different situation than jordan love with divante atoms So that's kind of interesting right because I kind of assumed that atoms would play but it too And we saw the market move two and a half points Not through any key numbers, but two and a half points When it was announced that he had kovid last week before the arizona game So If it comes out Saturday morning that he's out I mean, is this going to nine nine and a half I mean, I've seen it jump up to eight and then right back down I think a lot of people are going to bank on the packers being able to cover Especially because the chiefs they are so bad at covering the spread. So I think people are factoring that in and People are also at the point in the season where we are, you know Hey, we're not Are we kind of you're kind of midway. We're midway close enough. So I would say that Eventually you get sick and tired of betting on the chiefs to cover anything So I think a lot of that's going to be factored in I don't think we're going to see it close at nine or 10 I think it'll probably be around seven and a half or eight And I would still even even if it turns out that atoms who I think is the best receiver in the nfl I think we learned our lesson last week with that A little bit I think a lot of it last week too was moving across like non-key numbers because it was three and a half It didn't move across anything big force kind of key, but like the movement that we saw Potentially was an overreaction a but also b didn't cross any big numbers This one might not either if it goes from seven and a half to nine and a half But I think that's that's worth, you know writing here as well Well, and also Robert Tungin's out for the season now as well, right? So Ulster injuries Potentially an issue. So anyways, we'll see. Yeah, we will see it'll be an interesting game I know it's not as fun as I would have been but it's still very interesting for different reasons for sure let's move now the titans are rams rams here seven and a half point favorites total is 53 and a half and You alluded to this before Derek Henry is out for the Titans and Even though he's not a quarterback To me at least he's someone who alters our view of the team of the offense How are you shifting your thoughts of the Titans with Derek Henry being sidelined for this game? Yeah, so I think a lot of people are going to make the case that this is an overreaction line as well with Derek Henry But I would argue that it's not because Derek Henry is quite literally their entire offense He's the one that gets up on the end zone I mean Titans won four straight with him leading the nfl with 937 yards rushing 10 touchdowns He also had a leak high 219 rushes. So he's leading in basically every category. He's doing everything He possibly can so to fill in the spot I know the Titans had made some moves in terms of running backs and signed a few people like adrian peterson for example Who was fifth on the league's career rushing list and we're waiting to see if he will be able to play or how Much they will play him so they're doing what they can but in this case, they're going against the rams It's not like they're going against the eagles where you can say, okay, they could probably figure something out I mean the rams are really really good A lot of people have them winning it all especially with the addition of van miller And we're going to get to see how he plays come this sunday, which i'm really excited about But in terms of how I would handicap this I don't want to say bet on a different game But you're asking me all the question mark games Which you know, it's a little bit tough, but I think the rams minus seven and a half They should be able to cover that Is it a situation where you feel good enough to bet that yourself or is it more so just to lean for you? So the I was gonna the pick for this game for me is rams first half minus five I think they'll be able to be up by a touchdown at The first half but at the same time you could always kind of dabble into that market as well First quarter first half if you're not confident on the outcome of the full game because Let's say there's a situation where you know the rams don't need this whenever the titans so so badly So I mean rams are also four and four against the spread at home two and two at home Against the spread they're not amazing, but the titans are three and one on the road But the rams are also three and one inside so five stadiums. So Again, I mean if you're looking at the trends and whatnot, there's not one that stands out compared to the other But I always lean to the first half spread when I can't really determine how I see the end result being And I think the tough part with judging this titans team Even though henry is they're not going to play the same style of football. So you are Throwing out everything effectively because like they're not going to run at the same rate. They do I wouldn't expect that they shouldn't With adrian peterson as they would or mcnickles with as they would with henry and I think that that does Fundamentally change things. So we talk about how Running backs may not matter as much as their positions But I think when it's someone who is such a focal point of the offense requires such a massive retooling That changes the calculus quite a bit in this situation for sure Yeah, uh, so we're wary of some of these games justifiably so very justifiably so Where are you seeing value this week across all the nfl games, erin? So my pick for this week, I would say chargers eagles. I'm taking the under so justin harbert chargers have lost too straight after a 4-1 start Um, harbert does rank 10th in the nfl in total passing yards He's time for eighth and passing touchdowns, but given he was limited at practice Yesterday, I think under 50 is the plate for this game. The eagles had a big win over the Lions I know they put up 44 points. They're averaging 25 points in the season Meanwhile, the chargers are averaging 22 points per game with their highest scoring game being 47 points against the Browns But I think with the eagles having a top 10 defense and justin harbert seeing how he's actually going to play comes sunday with his hand I think this is a great spot to take the under and it's remained pretty consistent I think the key thing with that because I agree with you that I think that's pretty enticing is that Both these defenses want to encourage you to not go deep on them Like the eagles had the lowest average depth of target against in the entire league of any defense And the chargers like that's their whole thing like that's their shtick is that like We're not letting them the deep ball and that's conducive to running plays conducive to short passes both those things kill clock So if you're looking at this game Like I'm looking from a dfs perspective and I'm like I want to like this game to the high total tight spread but like It's so hard to get jazz about like mike williams and all those guys because the way they play defense I think that's the key thing to think about totals too is like what do these defenses want to do These defenses don't want to let you throw deep and that does impact things for sure May total perspective that is erin dolin check her out on twitter at erin kate dolin make sure you watch girls who Bet every wednesday on the fandom youtube page with her and uh with her and live to see what they've got for each week Erin we appreciate the time. Good luck to you in week number nine. Hopefully we'll talk to you here once again soon Yes, thanks for having me on thanks, erin Covering the future Big thank you once again to erin dolin for swinging by and breaking down her thoughts on this weekend's nfl games And uh breaking down her just her general philosophy and how to bet those weird weird games One of those ed is the titans versus the rams and I know we're both numbers driven people and other driven people and traditionally Running backs don't move the spread all that much. Henry didn't this week I think it was six and a half on the look ahead and it closes It's not seven and a half part of that might have been the von miller trade as well So there wasn't a big effect on the market did it move across a key number of seven? That's important to note, too but What are your thoughts on this titans offense with no Derek Henry? I'm curious how you handle the situation Yeah, I mean I uh If we're any other star running back, I would I would not I would ignore it um, but my number is at five ish five and a half and the market is a seven and a half and you know Derek Henry is a guy that can break big place and Yeah, so big plays are random yada yada yada and all that stuff, but you know, it's impressive to see a man that big Like outrun the secondary That's really not supposed to happen. So I want to give him a little bit of credit for that. Um I don't know. I mean you also mentioned about how it kind of changes their offense Yeah, uh, do you think that's in terms of the way they play play action or or what? so I think that what it does is I think they'll still run heavy play action But um and like we know they done studies to show that the Effectiveness of your grounding does not affect the effectiveness of play action. Yep. The difference is I don't think teams are going to To respect the run as much in general So like they can run more light boxes and that may impact hannah hills passing efficiency I think that's more so The impact to me then oh, you know play action will be effect It'll be the same the marginal effectiveness play action be the same Because play action is good play action. You should run no matter what but like I think it's more so the way defenses play them. They can sit back more they can put more Assets and stopping a j brown and that may impact things more. I think that's the reason why I did lower their passing efficiency a bit Um, I upped their pass rates a bit which You know helps a bit in terms of their overall efficiency But I did lower their passing efficiency a bit did lower the rushing efficiency when I do that I get 8.6 is the spread in this game I'm not going to bet that because it's pretty close seven and a half But like it does to me alter the view of the team I think it was seven and a half before so it was about a point. Um but like It's not enough where I'm going to bet it but I do think it does impact their passing efficiency because of the way Defense will set up against them Yeah, I mean the the titans offense hasn't been particularly good when I look at rushing success rate Yeah, so that that might be the effect of you know stack boxes and trying to stop henry Uh, when you look at you know yards for carry and adjustments there They're they're obviously a lot better because he has broken a bunch of big plays So yeah, I think all these things are interesting. I I clearly don't think I mean, I don't think it's going to affect their their play action Game at all and I would probably put that in my seven nuggets on uh on saturday in my newsletter Um But yeah, you know, it's it's a tough one. I mean in general doesn't matter. I I mean I haven't bet this game Yeah, I might I don't know let me decide yet Yeah, and I honestly like the later in the week it gets like the more likely that that answer is no Right, I'm not going to I know that I I think that there's it's kind of similar to the packers game Where I see some value, but I'm not gonna bet it because it's not a it's not enough value for me to bet it But b It's a wide range of outcomes and I want to account for that as well So similar to what erin said before of you know better other games Let's do exactly that ed and transition into covering the future for today. Your nfl bet was yesterday. He talked about The jets versus the colts. What do you have for today? Yeah, well, I actually wasn't going to talk about the chargers, but um I did better than that one place, but most places were at two and a half I think it's a pretty good but by low spot for them So, uh, yeah, let's go back to college football. All right, we want to talk about uh, michigan state So they come into this game against purdue undefeated at eight and oh, but uh, the record is deceiving So when you look at the stats against michigan last week, they won, but they had fewer yards And a lower rate in terms of yards per play and success rate And michigan state won because they were able to break a bunch of big plays in the ground game And they converted to critical fourth downs And when you look before that, uh, you know against the brass god They were the best fishery one of the strangest plays in football Where uh, nebraska punted the ball and it they meant to punt it down to the right and their entire coverage team runs down to the right And instead it gets fielded to the left and and jade and reed just just waltzes into the end zone for a touchdown Um, it was uh, it was a game in which nebraska had 442 yards to michigan states 254 And uh, michigan state didn't have a first down the entire second half and yet they were able to win in over time So offense also didn't look good, uh against indiana as well You know, they're a team that's uh, fbf's average when I look at adjusted success rate, uh, 67th on offense 56 on defense And um, you know, they play a purdue team that it's pretty interesting that they changed quarterbacks Jack plumber started the year, but aiden o'Connell has taken over since then Pass offense looks pretty good 16th when I look at adjusted passing success rate And then the defense has really been good. Uh, this is something I noticed a couple weeks ago, but they're 12th in my adjusted success rate Uh pretty solid against both the pass and both the rush george carloff. This is a is a past rushing beast. Um 16 and a half percent pressure rate so So here's the thing like michigan state doesn't look particularly good by success rate purdue really does um, my numbers put this at close to a pic So I see a lot of value in uh purdue plus three I bet it I can understand if you believe in this michigan state team, uh, you can believe in what canith walker is doing at the running back position Um, you know, it's at three right now. Fandall is leaning minus two is is leaning towards purdue Making michigan state only a two and a half point favorite on the road And then, you know, there's the whole letdown situation, which uh, you know, I usually almost I mean if you if you listen to me on the show, you know, I almost never talk about letdown situations, but This is this, uh, it's a really interesting situation. You have an emotional win over your rival You have a Ohio state in two weeks and this is clearly a team that doesn't always show up on offense And we've already seen that so What's going to happen when they play a pretty good purdue defense? I'll take some chances with this. Uh, I'll go with michigan state plus three That's something that ben mentioned as well Is that like it is kind of a weird situation again, like, you know, we don't want to overvalue that but like Maybe that's part of why the Bengals had that weird week last week against the Jets. They had that Uh, that win previously then they're coming up and facing the browns this week It's a weird situation. So and like they're humans Maybe they look ahead a little bit. I I think that Mentioning it is very fair But if your numbers say, hey, there's value in this game to begin with with it being a pick That's interesting and it's also interesting that like Fandals stuck at two and a half this whole time And I kind of expected others to follow suit That hasn't happened yet. It's also two and a half plus one or two So, I mean, it's kind of, you know, it's close to three once you account for that But like I expected that to move and it hasn't yet So I find that like interesting too that that that there is a deviation in the market here Yeah Michigan state is also two and a half at circa. Okay That's also interesting to me. So Should be an interesting game. We'll see what Michigan state does in this game Purdue has done this before not that that should have factor in our analysis But they've done this before, you know upsetting teams like this shouldn't matter for it But you know, they have a tendency to do that as well as far as mine I mentioned yesterday on covering the future that I wasn't into too many sides this week Which is why I wanted the Vikings team total over 21 and a half and that's still largely true But we got some movement overnight and I think I'm willing to go with one side here And that's laying the six points with the Steelers against the Chicago Bears I think the Bears are still It's a tough team to trust especially on the road against such a tough defense Right now Pittsburgh ranks 14th my power rankings where Chicago is 29th There is room for upward movement for the Bears because we saw Justin Fields Do some really fun cool stuff last week, but He was still below average from a passing perspective. He averaged 0.06 passing that expected points per drop back And that's 0.06 lower than the league average That was at home against a defense that has been middling so far this year Now Fields goes on the road Pittsburgh's defense ranks fourth overall by my numbers which combine priors with 2021 data There are six against the pass The biggest issue here is going to be the pass rush because the Steelers has generated pressure on 28.6 percent of opposing drop backs this year, which is According to pro football reference the third highest number in the league And the bear sack rate is an outlier at 12.6 percent outlier in not the good sense from that perspective. So basically I think we've gone a bit too far on the Steelers hate to the point where they're actually a bit underrated I actually did bet them last week against the Browns that number moved against me I bet at three and a half and it closed at five and a half. So that felt bad But then they won I'm down to go back here again and lay the six for them to top chicago And honestly, I'm a little bit Surprised to see some form of enthusiasm around the bears Given that although Fields played well last week. They still Lost by 11 and like it was a weird situation. So I feel like to me add this one heavily favorites Pittsburgh. What do your numbers say about Pittsburgh versus chicago? My numbers have uh Pittsburgh by about four and a half So that suggests value on the bears. Do you want to play russian roulette with joe sim fields? That's the question you got to ask yourself And then, you know, joe astrosky talked about the defense, right? How I didn't expect the defense to be particularly good You know losing some key pieces of that secondary, but you know, they're 12th Yeah, and my adjust adjust passing success rate. That's very respectable. Can they keep that up? I don't know but But I mean they do have some pretty good decent players on that offensive line So Yeah, I mean it's the game. I'm staying away from but uh, I I don't feel I I don't feel any urge to to bet on Justin Fields But I mean he could be great He could be terrible, right? Variance variance, baby. And I think the thing with fields is it's not I don't really want to bet Against him. I want to bet against the situation the situation being it's a quarterback who holds the ball in search of big plays and That's not a good formula against behind this offensive line Against this pass. I think that's part of it for me, too Is like I think fields should hold the ball long in search of big plays and that work with also wilson leads to ISAC rate, but also can lead to explosives and explosives are great But in this specific scenario, I don't Think that's the right way to play things. So I will go with the stealers minus six here against the chicago bears I think that's the monday night game too. So it should be a fun little sweat for me on a monday night That's an interesting one. Yeah, I don't I don't know why they pick that what I don't know why they picked that for monday well, I mean they picked it before the start of the season and We're not gonna get the best football in that game. No Hopefully we get a win though. That's all I need I don't know maybe maybe I do need to bet chicago just to have some uh, good reason to watch the whole thing Draw it out, man. Draw out the sweat, you know, absolutely gotta have something on the line or else that game's gonna suck So we'll see how that goes and see how this week goes as well That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread big Thank you to both our guests for this week ben stevens on the college side and erin kate dolin on the NFL side Again, check her out on twitter at erin kate dolin Also to get the episode with bent go to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast find it there Hit subscribe and leave a rating interview and thank you those of you who have done so already Ed you mentioned the podcast with edward egros. What else going on for you this week? Yeah, I'm writing my email newsletter. Uh, you can check that out at thepowerrank.com. I write about the games that I bet Uh, Edward egros and I write a seven no get saturday, which has been I don't know I've really enjoyed making it people From some of my email opens. Uh, people seem to enjoy reading it as well So pretty pumped about that. Uh, check that out at thepowerrank.com And the interview with edward egros the football analytic show find that there find it on twitter at the power rank I am at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s We also have our dfs preview podcast week number nine already posted myself and brandy gadoola breaking down The week nine main slate find that by searching for the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed Wherever you get your podcast want to thank you all for tuning in for this week Good luck to you with both your college football and your nfl bets. We'll talk to you once again next week This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network. What's up guys This is jordan spieth. If you're watching this video, please like and subscribe to the fan dual youtube channel