 Hi, my name is Leon Rowe, currency trader and trading coach at Trading180.com and welcome to this week's supply and demand forex and gold fundamental and technical analysis. If you like the videos that I provide every week, please don't forget to like, subscribe and share with your fellow trading colleagues and Trading180. We combine fundamental analysis for sentiment with supply and demand strategies to really kind of take the best trades and really the most informed trades, right? So in case you're new to the channel and don't you know know that, but anyways, getting into the week ahead, so let me zoom in a bit. So week ahead, speeches by several Fed officials as well as the US labor market report and ISM manufacturing PMIs are set to dominate the headlines in the US next week. Also as well, second quarter GDP releases from the ones that we trade is Canada and inflation rate as well for several European countries, including Germany, France and Spain will be in focus. So finally, manufacturing PMIs for August will be released in China and Switzerland. I'm just trying to ignore the current countries that we don't really look at. Anyways, there is more details about that on the Trading Economics website. If you go to TradingEconomics.com and you go to the week ahead tab, you can find it right there, but we'll get into some technicals and fundamentals and starting off on the dollar index and dollar index is just a measure of dollar strength against the basket of currencies like the euro, the yen and the pound. And looking at the dollar index, it's easy to see that the dollar is strengthening against those currencies. So if you was to go to the euro, dollar, pound, dollar, for example, you would see that the dollar strengthened against those currencies. Now, Jackson Hole is basically what's going on and this is pretty much what was said. So the top central bankers deliver a hawkish message at Jackson Hole hawkish message meaning that they are looking to continue to hike rates and they're more concerned about taming inflation and getting inflation down than the effect that high hiking interest rates will have on the future economies. So their priority is to continue to hike rates now by how much is anyone's guess that's going to be data dependent. But the market sees the speech that Jerome Powell had delivered was hawkish. So the world's top central bankers delivered a stern and unified message on the need to curb inflation declaring at Jackson Hole that it is broad based here to stay and will require their forceful action. That's very, very hawkish. So the heads of the Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of Korea and several other, sorry, several European Central Bank policy makers spoke Saturday at the Kansas City Fed annual retreat in the Grand Tenton National Park in Wyoming. So again, they're definitely hawkish. Now, that is typically, and I use the word typically and usually supportive and appreciates the currency, but there are nuances that you have to be aware of. And I'll get into that when I talk about, when I go on to talking about the UK and Europe. But for now, the dollars should be supported in terms of any pullbacks for me to demand zones are nice confluences. I don't know whether prices will go higher or not. If I did, then I'll bet all the money I had on that move. Nobody knows, right? No one knows where it's going to go from here. It could go higher. If it does go higher, then you really want to look for pullbacks into demand zones as confluence. Of course, you're not trading the dollar index, but you are looking for demand zones as confluence on the dollar index. So for me, the path of these resistances still to the upside on the dollar. It's been like that. And I've been saying this for over a year, week in, week out, buy the dollar, buy the dollar, buy the dollar, not financial advice. Of course, I've been telling you what I've been doing. And that's pretty much what's been happening as far as the path of these resistances been really to the upside. And I swear the money's been made. So my bias is still to the upside. I'm not too sure what's going to happen, but I'm looking for either prices if prices go higher, because we are really an expensive area when you think about this being expensive back in July, mid July, July 14th. And now, because prices couldn't go higher, and now we're back to that expensive area. Will the market consider this to be expensive? If it does, then prices will start to pull back. If it doesn't, prices may go higher, but then as prices go higher, then this will be seen, this area here would be seen as a bargain if prices are up here, and then you just wait for a pullback for prices to go back to a potential demand zone. But again, it all depends on what is happening with the dollar fundamentals. If anything does change, let's say for example, jobs wise or inflation wise, then it's important to understand that. But for now, the continuing, for me anyway, move is going to be to the upside eventually over the medium to long term, not too sure what's going to happen this week. I wouldn't personally want to buy the dollar at highs, always look to buy the dollar or any currency on pullbacks. Moving on to the dollar yen and the dollar yen, again, approaching not the high of July, but it's approaching a high. So for me, I think again, a bit of a pullback would be advantageous. A deeper pullback would be brilliant. The 1-3-3 round numbers would be excellent. And in fact, I think it was, where is it now? Let's see if it comes up. Right, here we are. It says Jackson Hole latest. Corruda says Bank of Japan to continue easing policies. So Bank of Japan governor, here are Hiko Corruda said inflation will turn lower in his country later this year and next, leaving him no choice. But to keep easing monetary policy now easing means that they're not looking to basically high crates, right? So in a nutshell, so when you go back to the chart, you've got one currency or one central banker whose bank is looking to high crates and another one is looking to just hold rates, right? That for me is a divergence, meaning that the path of these resistances is still going to be to the upside as it's been pretty much again all year. So any pullbacks for me buying opportunities or if prices go higher than a pullback, that could be decent. One thing to be aware of for sure is obviously risk of sentiment, right? Risk off. If the market starts to care about the global economy slowing down and other risk off events that cause money to flow out of, maybe commodity currencies are more into the Japanese yen, then I think the upside is capped 140 is also a level that the Bank of Japan have actually said that they are uncomfortable with. And if it does go above that 140 level, they could start to change their mind when it comes to ease the easing of their easing policy. So they might actually start to change and start to tighten a little bit. But again, it does depend on inflation where they are because at the moment I think it's, they mentioned that they are around 2.4% inflation, their target typically is 2.2%. And so they're one of the lowest when it comes to inflation. But if it's seen as trending way above or potentially trending way above that 2.4% inflation, then they could start to act to again try to cap inflation. So it's something to be aware of. And again, a weaker yen does will, you know, can push inflation higher in the same way that it's done with the pound as well as the euro. So 140s are definitely to be watched when it comes to potential short trades. And I do like that. I don't really like shorting against the dollar, but it could actually be a very nice trade in terms of, in terms of a short, but the path of these resistance should be to the upside. Dollar of Swiss, not really a pair that I'm interested in trading, but I think the dollar does have the US dollar. So any pullbacks into a demand zone back down to those 94, 94, 25 area would be potentially a buy. And if you are buying, if you're looking to buy the Swiss Franklin, I think this is probably a decent sell. But both central bankers are looking to hike rates. The Swiss national bank is still looking to on a hiking cycle as well. And so for me, two banks that are hiking rates, I'm not too keen on. So similar thing with the dollar CAD. Dollar CAD is a hard read when it comes to the medium to long-term price movement. I do like this though, technically the high is the 1, 3, 2s. I do like that as a technical sell. And that would be to buy the Canadian dollar at these prices. But again, technicals aren't going to be enough for me to want to take a trade in the direction. I would like to know whether the market sees this as value, is that going to be a bargain price? Is the US dollar the bargain? Which one is the weaker out of the two? So for me, the dollar CAD is harder to determine. So for me, I'm not really looking to get involved in this currency pair. But if you are, I think any pullbacks down to this demand zone, the 1, 2, 9s is decent. It has already bounced off of that zone there to the upside. And we've obviously, the Fed talking up the dollar, it makes sense, right? It makes sense to see the dollar start to increase in value and appreciate. New Zealand dollar, again, out of the two, I was expecting this to happen, commodity currencies against the dollar, probably going to get weaker. And I do think that although it's broken that I shall delete that demand zone there. I do think that technically this is a nice buy, but not really interested in this pair, not really keen on trading this pair again. But if I had to, it would be to buy the really the US dollar at the moment, that being supply. So any pullbacks into a supply zone would be the preferred direction to sell, at least in the short term. I think if market sentiment does turn around, China starts to grow and have some positive economic news. And I think the New Zealand dollar could actually be a decent buy and all commodity currencies could be a decent buy. But we'll see, but not really a pair that I'm looking to trade. But I do like this technically as a buy, very, very nice setup. Or as a fundamental trade, if I had to pick the two out of the two, I'd probably go with the dollar, with the US dollar as a sell. The pound dollar, so pound dollar, something I'm definitely interested in is really a sell for me. And yeah, just looking for really a pullback now. Many of you obviously have seen these two blue lines, they're basically just moving averages, or what I like to refer to them as is moving fair value, because between what is an average of averages I mean, and a mean between a bargain and an expensive area, which is a high and a low, yeah, would be known as fair value. So it's actually moving fair value. And this is the monthly moving fair value. So anything below the monthly moving fair value, I tend not to look to trade it. I'm only trading when prices come up above, you know, at or above fair value within obviously supply or demand zones, depending on which way you're trading. Now, if you're looking to buy the British pound, then this would be something I would look to buy, right? Because it's below fair value, which would mean that this is a bargain area, right? This is definitely a bargain area because it's below fair value. I'm looking to buy the pound, but because I'm looking to buy the US dollar, I prefer prices to come at least up to fair value, right? Because we wouldn't, you wouldn't buy something overpriced in real life. So why would I do it, you know, with currencies? So I'm looking for the monthly fair value at least as an indicator as to whether I should look to, you know, jump into a trade. So there was a trade on a lower time frame. Many traders would have spotted this in the group as a bit of a stop hunt. But for me, it wasn't a trade because of where, you know, the location of it. It was at an expensive area. This was seen as expensive for the dollar, right here. And so this might be seen as expensive right here. So you never want to buy or sell at low and buy at highs. But the pound and looking you know, pound fundamentals, one of the things is that is going to potentially continue to cripple the value of the pound is that searing UK inflation is driving the pound in its 37 year lows. So the pound is less than four cents away from the weakest since 1985. UK interest rates are expected to surpass 4% this year. And so it's starting to look like nothing can stop the British pound from sinking to new lows. We've talked about inflation surpassing 18%. That's crazy. This next year and families across the country likely to be pushed into energy poverty this winter. The UK's economic woes are getting worse by the day. The consensus among traders is that the Bank of England will have no choice but to force the economy into a severe recession and cause widespread job losses to reign in price pressures. And that makes all the sense in the world, right? If you, you know, as I can't explain it in this video, but one of the things I would say is I have a video on a fundamental analysis webinar, free one on on YouTube, right? So, you know, just go to my channel or just do a search in YouTube or fundamental analysis webinar, the free step to generating profitable, generating profitable forex trade ideas. And in it, I go in depth on the relationship between an understanding of relationship between inflation interest rates and GDP. And if you can understand this, yeah, and from a very basic level, it looks complicated, it looks complex. And I try to, you know, simplify complex concepts in this. And if you can understand this, then you can understand really the reasons why the Bank of England will have no choice but to force the economy into a severe recession by hiking interest rates. Yeah, because interest rates, although it has the effect of appreciating the currency, it can push the economy into a recession sooner and the deeper recession and inflation is causing that. So the higher inflation goes, the more that central banks have to potentially hike, but it doesn't mean that because they're hiking that is positive, right? It doesn't always mean that. Yeah, on the surface it would, but there are, again, there are advanced concepts that you need to understand. And one of the things that we look towards in Trading 180 is confirmation from bank analysis, right? So this is HSBC and this was published on the 23rd of August. And I've been saying this way before, you know, this was published if you go back in my last videos and a lot of the guys in the private members group will know that I've been saying this. So the euro and the pound hiking into weakness and what that typically means, and I'll just summarise it or the HSBC will summarise it is that this is really this is so the more and more, more and more the euro and the pound seem to recognise that hiking into weakness is rarely positive. That's what you need to understand because it might be hiking rates, but if you're hiking, if the economy can't support rate hikes, then it's not going to be positive for a currency. In fact, it's going to be, it's going to weaken the currency because the fact that the economy is you're pushing the economy further into a recession by hiking rates if the economy cannot support it. So, you know, these are the concepts that, you know, we talk about at Trading 180 and the advanced concepts. So you won't find this stuff, we'll barely find this stuff on YouTube is little understood on YouTube. And so I did get a really nice message, a couple of messages matter of fact, over the past week from traders in the group in the discord group. And this is from a trader. I did blank out their picture and their name, not sure whether they want to be on YouTube, but everyone in the group knows who they are. And again, I thank them for this as well. And they said to me that they wanted to say that my Trading 180 programme is the best thing that has happened to their trading since they began learning three years ago. And he started out day trading stocks for about 18 months and then moved into the forex world and started working with a proper account after eight to nine months. He had slowly brought it very close to max loss level. And at that point, they knew, you know, he knew that fundamental base strategy is what he needed. And so when he found me on YouTube, he stopped trading to avoid losing the account smart, very smart move and signed up to the programme and burned through the course materials. Yeah, there's a lot of, you know, there's a lot to go through. You can't come in and just think that you're going to learn it in a day or two. This is, you know, a lot of hard work that goes into it. And that was a few months ago. And today, I haven't, he said he's not only brought his account out of the hole, but all the way to an official promotion solely by following the trading strategies. And that's not just technicals, that is fundamentals as well. And he thanks me for that. And then now I've got another message. So that was a 22nd of August. Got another message as well, which to this trader said, he said that I'm really happy to be on this platform after trading for over 14 years stuck with the 14 years, which is amazing. Most traders I said would have given up. I asked him what made him continue trading and losing, I guess for 14 years. And he said that, he's stubborn, I guess. But 14 years and regarding fundamental analysis, sorry, and he regarded fundamental analysis as market noise, which is what is typically taught on YouTube. You don't need fundamental analysis. All you need is the technicals. Technicals is what you need to know, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. But now he knows better spent less than a month on trading 180. And all we can say is that he's had his best trading month ever in 14 years of trading forex. So he did want to go to trading 180, the mentoring enrollment starts on the 5th of September. And it will only be for a limited time. We're only opening up for a week for about seven days. So it might close on maybe the 10th or 11th. So just be aware. And also as well, you'll get access to not only supply and demand strategies advanced as well that I don't really go into on YouTube, but also as well, you'll get access to the fundamental analysis spreadsheet with my bias on where I am on the pairs and understanding divergences and also as well understanding where you are on the currency value cycle, which is very, very important. Many traders, in fact, probably 99% of traders don't understand this concept of the currency value cycle. Anyways, let's get back to the charts. And so for me, continue to sell the pounds. So any pullbacks back up to the 1.250 area is going to be the first zone I'm looking for a sell trade, right? That's where I'm going to be looking for sell trades. So let's see what happens there. Or if prices do go lower, let's say they go lower like that, then this is going to create a supply zone. And then I'm looking for pullbacks into that area there. The 118s would be where I'm looking for a sell trade. And that's just looking at supply and demand strategies. There are strategies that we employ and we can get involved in this maybe a bit sooner. But for me, I'm looking at those are really the options. If you are looking to buy the pound, not saying that pound can't go higher this week, of course it can. And if it does then brilliant, right? This would be a decent area to look for a buy trade, maybe ride it up to wherever you want to ride it up to. But for me, I'm looking for sell trades around that 1.20, not financial advice. Looking at the euro dollar and the euro dollar, again, I've been saying this for around 18 months. And in fact, if you go to again my YouTube channel and if you type in shorting euro dollars for 18 months for its fundamental analysis and watch this video, I pretty much outline why and go back for a year and a half through discord messages and saying why I'm continuing to short the euro dollar. I said it last week, week before, week before that. And again, you can go through all the weekly videos and see my bias. And you can see pretty much what's happened last week. It's just to the downside. Now I'm waiting for is pullbacks to the supply zones. Again, I don't like to trade or don't really trade beyond below the monthly moving fair value. So I'm looking for at least a pullback to that supply zone before looking to get short or even better prices do come back up to that 1.0, 3.50. That would be fantastic. And for a short and again, just like the pound, looking for a pullback into prices do break down even further and go beyond. I mean, they already are beyond parity, but they go down to that 98.97. Then a pullback into the parity would be decent. Now fundamentally, where am I fundamentally? We've got ECB lacking consensus for jumbo rate hike. Some officials want Sir Holtzman and not to want 75 basis point move to be considered. And that's really because of the, again, increasing rate of inflation, inflation getting out of hand, going into the double digits, right? Some European central bank officials want to jumbo three quarter point hike in interest rates to be considered at next month's meeting though at present, there doesn't appear to be a majority backing such a move. And so again, they want a bigger hike. Some central bankers want a bigger hike. And this is really because of rising inflation. They need to tame inflation. They need to get the Euro appreciating. But again, as we've just pointed out by HSBC, doesn't mean because you have a bigger hike that you should really want to buy because if the economy can't support that hike, what you'll end up, what the central bank's going to end up doing is pushing their economy into a deeper recession and potentially sooner. So for me, again, any pullbacks into supply zones or our sell trades, if you do want to be a buyer of the Euro. And again, I think, you know, you could be a buyer of the Euro, you know, this week, if there's some disappointing news out about, you know, with the US dollar. So if they've got disappointing jobs, news, et cetera, then that could be a potential buy on the Euro. But it'll be more you selling the dollar than buying the Euro. But I would just still see that as a nice opportunity to get short either here if it presents itself, because prices could just blow through that level, right? It doesn't mean it's going to, you know, it's going to bounce off there. No one knows. But you know, either way, if it presents an entry there or an entry here, then I will look for a, continue to look for a short trade, because I do think that the dollar is the dog with the least fleece. So moving on to the Euro, sorry, the Australian dollar, US dollar cannot pair. I'm looking at, but I do think that there is a nice opportunity. Many traders will look for a potential stop hunt below that if they are looking to buy Australian dollar. But I also think that this area here is really nice for a potential buy. And especially going into, if the dollar starts to weaken, I think the Australian dollar would be the one to buy, or the one of the currencies to buy against the US dollar. But my bias would be if I was looking to trade this pair to the short side, so any pullbacks into a supply zone would be short, be my short buyer sickness and nice supply zone for a short Australian dollar yen. And again, we went higher from the previous week. I was looking at this, just didn't get involved in it, couldn't get involved in it because there wasn't a deep enough pullback. There has been just, you know, this whole area of demand. And I know traders will say, well, you just basically draw in demand, draw in demand. And, you know, it looks, it looks a bit messy. So, and that's true, right? It does look messy. But the point is, is that within those demand zones, you, you can break those demand zones down by using horizontal and diagonal support and resistance, right? So within that demand zone, where are the strongest areas of, or the prices, where prices are likely to turn around, we know that price has made new highs going higher there, right? So that would be the area for me within this whole demand zone, that would be the area that I would look for, you know, buy trades. So, you know, horizontal support and resistance, diagonal support and resistance within areas of demand, especially wide demand zones are worth considering. And usually the lower end of the demand zone should be considered the stronger, we'll say the stronger, but the area where you might get a bit more reaction. So for me, any pullbacks, I think looking at this from a, that's being a high and that being a low, and looking at where expensive and fair value is, I think for me, I wouldn't look for any trades unless we probably get something down to the 93 areas, start to look for a buy trade on the Aussie Yen. Also as well, that is an option as well. Yeah, so around I think that 93 area would be where I'm looking for a buy trade on this Australian Yen, if we can get that. Hopefully we do and hopefully we're not necessarily risk off when we do come down here, but if not, if that trade fails, I think the 92 round number and 90 between the 92 and 9050 is going to be very nice for a buy trade in this area here. We've got a nice area of support and resistance there as well. So yeah, let's see what happens there. That's my bias to buy the Australian dollar for now and gold, gold, gold, gold. So gold is obviously putting back because there is obviously some dollar strength and gold and typically work inverse. So if the dollar starts to strengthen, you're probably going to see the gold start to continue to go down. Now I think that the gold is definitely a buy still regardless because over the medium to long term and this is because I do think that at some point the dollar is going to be a sell. It's we're probably going to approaching peak dollar and there will be a pivot by the by the Federal Reserve and I think when that pivot starts to happen, it's not going to happen obviously in the short term, but if prices start to come down here and the Fed is very hawkish as they are. And let's say for example, there's some sort of Fed pivot when it comes to inflation and interest rates, they get the data that they want to see. And I do think that this area is going to be very nice, very, very, very nice for a buy. And I think gold as we head into potential, you know, you're seeing recessions, right? You're seeing the fact that Europe are going into a potential recession. SSION, apologies for my handwriting. As recession, you're seeing the UK go into a potential recession by the end of the year. Europe crisis. And so we've risked off on the horizon. You can see it coming. Gold for me is a buy. So any, you know, just I think the banks are just scaling in, looking to buy gold for cheap. And then that should be a decent. That should be a decent buy, I think, going into the end of the year. Anyways, that brings us to the end of this week's analysis. Again, don't forget to like, subscribe and take care and I'll see you in the next video.