 The question is, when a test is 355 area, what happens next? So welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access a Trader dot com weekend wrap up show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody had a good week. So let's get into it. So indexes down across the board, you have NASDAQ composite, down 2% ahead of our earnings that kick off next week with IBM and then Netflix to follow and the week after you have the whole Super Bowl of earnings with Amazon and all that stuff to follow. You had the S&P down about 1%, you had the Dow down about a half or percent. Again, not earth shadowing news. There's nothing about it that you can turn around and look at it one way or another and make a really, really hard determination. The one thing I've always maintained that technical analysis, even watching this broadcast, my whole world revolves around technical analysis. Again, I'm not smart enough. I'm an idiot and I think most of us are the same, just some of us don't accept this, that we're not smart enough to figure it out. We need data, a lot of data to kind of digest, back test and apply to see if it works. And usually I turn around and say, look, technical analysis is cut and dry. Buyers either clean up the sellers and supply in the stock goes higher or sellers clean up the buyers on demand and stock goes lower. But there is a time, there is kind of a gray area in the market and a lot of people could call it painted into a corner and call it summer trading. I don't believe in that. But there is an area of technical analysis that the bulls and the bears have a really good stance. And at least rationally, you can understand both arguments. And I think this is one of the times. So if you've been watching this broadcast just in the last week, I've been pretty adamant about calling the market very tight. We've been on a huge run since May the 20th, put in a high $3.65 in change on the Qs, from the lows of, what, $3.16? You talk about $50 on the Qs since the 20th of May. That's a big deal, right? That really is a big deal. And the market just got tired this week. I mean, you saw a lot of names really gas out. The meme names that a lot of, you know, there's a lot of love affair with the meme names. There's hatred with the meme names. You know, a very emotional area of the market, retail versus institutions versus institutions versus retail. But the leaders in this tape, Amazon, Apple, NVIDIA, they were just kind of chugging along, really, really aggressive. And they just kind of stopped. And this is kind of where you have a good argument for the bulls and the bears. And here's the argument for the bulls. Markets just tired, right? Markets just tired, where we had a huge run. All we're doing now is trending right back, slow, orderly, non-descriptive, no aggression, no fear, there's nobody around. Everybody's on vacation. Everybody's enjoying the summer. We're going to retest, you know, we're going to retest this bottom channel here where we held. And earnings are going to be the catalyst that are going to catapult us to all-time highs once again in the next few weeks. I think they're right, right? I think they're right. Here's the bear case, right? Bear case is very simple. We had a huge run, right? We had a huge run too far, too fast. Speculation money is coming out of all asset classes, including Bitcoin, including these meme stocks, including, for example, just the Russell itself, right? The Russell itself, the market can't sustain this. We're going to go lower. We're going to go lower. We're going to go lower. And you know, in a weird way, and again, that's an opinion. Everybody has an opinion, but they might be right as well. And the one thing that I've learned throughout all these years, and I'm doing this for 22 years, just don't guess, right? Really don't guess. This whole week, if you've been watching this broadcast, it's not that I've been self-biased, okay? I was just self-value-biased. And the market has been strong, and we were just looking for clues. We got the first clue, the Russell breaking down check. The second clue based on that kind of piggyback effect on that was the kind of like, stalling out pattern of all these speculation Bitcoin things, right? Bitcoin kind of stalled out of this 31, 32, 33,000 area. The dog crap coin that everybody was going to the moon, and is that the other thing? That thing is starting slowly, but surely crashing down into the reality. But the biggest clue for me this week was the leaders stopped. And the most important leader at that juncture that had the biggest run was Amazon. And you'll notice there is a pretty good common denominator of what happened this week. And if you notice here, Amazon tapped out. That's all of it, right? It tapped out, had a monster run from the first breakout of 3,300 and the next breakout above 3,500. So it just gassed out around that 3,800 area. And it put in a blow off top and inverted hammer. And the first clue was it closed below the five day moving average, right? You can see a lot of similarities in this in a second. So it closed below the five day moving average. And for all you guys are just watching this broadcast for the first time, for me, the five day moving average, and all you guys have been following me for years, you kind of know this, it's the shortest term sentiment above the five day. That's bullish. You can see here when it held the five day bounce, it held the five day bounce. So the first close below the five day moving average on Amazon triggered a cell signal and you'll see the pivots in a second. Big, big move down all the way to the rising support. Again, nobody's talking about Amazon's going to 2,900. We're just, again, we trade channels. I'm a channel trader. I'm not trying to predict what's going to happen three weeks from now. Who knows what's going to happen three weeks from now? There's a catalyst there. We'll see what happens in earnings. Again, raise your hand on Amazon if you don't think they're going to beat earnings, right? They're probably going to beat earnings. Again, how the stock reacts, your guess is as good as mine, but the point is we're not trying to guess. So five day moving average got compromised and that was the first poll. Then you had NVIDIA, right? NVIDIA had this ridiculous run. They announced a four full-on stock split and the stock literally went from 560 all the way to 835. And again, you can see here the first close below the five day moving average, even watching this broadcast this week. You saw those monster pivots on this thing. This started a really, really aggressive sell signal with Thursday and Friday. Friday's pivot was crazy, but Thursday's pivot wasn't that bad either. So that got a sell signal. Now, raise your hand who you know who the third leader is, right? Third leader is Apple Computer, right? I don't know if you've ever heard of them. They make computers. I think they still make computers, right? The iPods, the iPods, the iP toilets, everything in between. So you'll notice here a very common denominator. And if you see here, this is the first close on Apple below the five day moving average in this whole formation. So if you believe in conspiracy theories or technical analysis, this is not a good thing. And when I mean not a good thing, I mean not a good thing for Monday. I'm not saying Apple's. I think Apple will see 200 probably in another year, maybe even less. We're talking about from the next day, we can only make determinations based on short-term data that we're getting. So if you believe in technical analysis and you believe that the market is led by leaders and the market is pulled by leaders, well, you got your first Domino, Amazon, your second Domino of Nvidia or Nvidia. I know I butcher the name all these years. And this is Apple's first close below the five day moving average. And if it confirms, again, nobody's saying it's going to 120, but we're talking about a measure potential, maybe a two day measure potential to the 142, 141 level. Again, if we don't know if it's going to confirm, if this five day confirms on Monday. So we have a lot of data, right? We have a lot of data. And I've been saying pretty much on all the videos and all the throughout the trading day, there's no reason for me to buy stocks. For at least for now, there's absolutely no reason for me to buy stocks because number one, they're all either starting to confirm the five day or below the five day moving average. The Russell is broken short-term. There's obviously a buyer strike in crypto, right? Speculation money, speculation money, speculation money. Tired stocks, that's all they are. Tired stocks. Not saying they're not going to go higher a week from now, two weeks from now. Who knows, but they're tired. They're very, very tired. And all we're trying to do is capitalize on exhaustion, right? That's it. Again, like I've been saying for years and years and years, think about it. Run a marathon 26 miles, three and a half hours, four hours, five hours of running. And then oh, by the way, go swim, go swim another five miles, go bike another 26 miles, right? You're going to be exhausted. You might be able to do it, right? They're called triathletes. They might be able to do it. We're not going to do it if you're not prepared for it. You're not going to do it if you don't train for it for years and years and years. So they're tired. And all we're doing is using technical analysis, just using common sense. The most basic thing in technical analysis and common sense is the eyeball test, right? If stocks can't go up, well, what do you think is going to happen? And that's all we've been doing throughout the week. I've been probably 95% sell buys the whole week. I've been trading on the short side. I don't think I bought a stock, maybe Monday off the gap down. But anyway, I'm pretty much sell biased. If you've been watching this broadcast, again, pretty much all sell signals all across the board. And again, it's very, very important. Now, where it gets a little hairy. This is where it gets a little hairy. Can the Qs, and assuming Apple leads the way on Monday, can the Qs touch this 355 area? I think it can, right? I think it can. The question is, when it tests this 355 area, what happens next? So prior to the 355 area, this is just an exhaustion candle. These are stocks going, just drifting lower from exhaustion levels into rising support. You can see here every single time the touch rising support bounced. So this is kind of be the do or die area. So what we're looking for, for a more aggressive look at the market, at least short term, is what happens on that 355 test? The bulls are either going to defend that area and pretty much confirm what we've been talking about. Kind of a drift back test into rising support. We've got a catalyst coming up on earnings, go back to the 52 week highs, all time highs, or do we violate this 355 area on a close, close below? And then you have a big multiple, right? You have something much more than stocks are just tired. This is just an orderly back test. It's the summer, the volume stinks, blah, blah, blah, blah. You have something more. Again, stocks trade from supply to supply and demand to demand. And if this closes below 355, then you have 10 to 14 points of downside on the Qs. That's kind of a big deal, right? That will be a big deal. And again, I'm not trying to scare any investors or anything. We just want to be prepared. Again, that's all we do as traders. We're not trying to convince anybody what we do is correct. We're comfortable in our own skin. We follow our process. Whatever our process is, however you trade, you follow that blueprint. You follow those guidelines and the chips fall where they may. But as far as this broadcast goes, I'm just trying to get everybody to kind of look at the market from a different point of view, right? Look at it from a safety point of view. Watch out for potential red flags and don't get caught with your pans down. Because again, throughout the week, as we've been saying, hey, stocks are tired, stocks are tired. Watch these breakdowns. You see investors sitting there and saying, well, this is nothing, right? This is nothing. It's nothing until it's something, right? It's something until it really affects you. And if you trade or invest in your eyes, close, you're not going to be good, right? You're not going to be good when there's things that are out of control that you can actually have avoided. But you believe that your Teflon approach, that everything always goes up, all dips get bought, and yada, yada, yada. Three months later, you're in, as Jim Kramer would say, the house of pain. So that 355 over, under, on a close is going to be super important. All in all, a very solid week. Big polls, very, very aggressive polls throughout the week. Catalyst next week. Again, you've got IBM kicking off technology earnings Monday. You've got Netflix for the beta names on Tuesday. And then next week, you've got the motherload, right? You've got Tesla, Apple, Amazon, Facebook, everything in between. So earning season is starting its first inning of technology. We'll see, right? We'll see how the market accepts earnings. Again, from the bear case, we're up too much. From the bull case, this is just a road stop. This is just a little speed bump until we start reclaiming highs. Hey, they're both right, okay? Let's see how it plays out. Again, I am the king of the idiots. Don't try to convince yourself that you're smarter than the market, that you could trick the market, you could get cute with the market. Every single time you try to trick and get cute with the trade and boredom and all that stuff, you get run over. And these are facts, and we all know this. So instead of trying to convince everybody how smart you are, be reserved, right? Check your ego out the door. Nobody cares about opinions. Stocks are either going to defend levels or get cracked below those levels, and price action will probably soon to follow. So going into this week, again, starting off Monday, I'm probably going to be more sell biased and buy biased just because of the leadership that we've seen kind of get tired and start getting pulled. And so if Apple gets pulled, probably everything else will get pulled as well. So let me give you some ideas for Monday. Some names I kind of like. Roku, I still like here. You can see first close on Thursday below support. It held the same area twice. So this thing cracks. You got 10 to 15 points at the downside, assuming the market continues to be weak. Look at Intuit, right? So here's the first close on the five. It went to the 10, right? The 10 is being defended for now. Intuit starts building below this channel and it's held the same level twice. So all you got to do is look at charts this weekend, guys, and you see a lot of names like this. If this thing starts cracking this level, you got eight, nine points of downside to the next channel. Again, nobody's saying it's going to go to 400. We're just talking about a trade, right? A cash flow trade measure potential into supply. I mean, look at Facebook, right? Look at Facebook here. It cracked, right? Cracked on the support, put it in a low, back to back days, held support the same area. Look at the 60-minute channel here, right? Look how tight it's getting, right? If Facebook cracks, again, you got seven, eight points, again, assuming the market cracks. So you have a lot of names. Look at the semiconductors. And the video's taking them down. Look at the video. First close below this whole rising support. This thing confirms you got six, seven points now. If you go through charts, look at the NASDAQ 100. It is only 100 names. It will literally take you five minutes. I promise you, especially if you use like TC-2000, what's cool about it is there's a spacebar feature in TC-2000. And if you hit the spacebar, it literally goes one stock, one by one. You could literally knock out 100 charts within three to five minutes and get a really good actionable list of trade for the next day. So definitely a lot of value to the downside ahead. And we'll see what happens. So let's talk about Friday's action very, very quickly. And again, this has been my whole mantra throughout the week, still seeing a bunch of really good downside channels. There's too much supply above, right? I go, obviously that can switch in a heartbeat, but I'm patiently waiting for downside channels to confirm and technology just like yesterday, right? Thursday, there was no video. There's no video on Thursday. It's kind of my mental reset day. That's exactly what happened on Thursday. Everything got pulled. And that's what we're waiting for, right? So let's stay patient, waiting for channels to develop, still seeing better value to the downside as we saw yesterday. Patience pays off with all those heavy massive downside channels. Good morning. So the only one that I kind of like to the upside, there's actually two, but there's one that I confirm, not a big move, BLL86, one of the very few setups I see, not a big move at all. But again, at least it moved, right? At least it moved something to the upside. 86 went to like 86 and change, and then the market sold off. That finished down 300. So checkpoint never reclaimed that 125. ZS traded the 218, never got there. NET, I still like that 101 level is gonna be very, very big. It's another setup I like for Monday. Look, look at this. It held in now three times. One, two, three, right? This 101 area, this thing breaks. On NET, this could be really good. Here is definitely the trade of the day on NVIDIA 753. If it builds below and market polls can see 730, NVIDIA got destroyed. I got short. I know a lot of you guys caught this thing. Great job. So here was the 753. That was yesterday's low was 754. The previous day, put an opening range low. It took out 753 and just destroyed, right? So here's the whole channel. Here's just absolutely destroyed. Went all the way down to 723. Just an awesome move. Congratulations for you guys who caught NVIDIA with me. Amazon, another big one, 3619. If it builds below, can flush. Here was Amazon, right? So here was Amazon. It took out the 10 day, right? First close to the 10 day. First close to the five. Confirmed, went to the 10. First closed over the 10. Confirmed on Friday. Went all the way down to 3570s. Nice move down on Amazon. I wasn't watching Coin 220 if it builds below. I was not watching. Did Coin do anything? Did it take out the 220? Nope. Held the 220. Watch also Coin. Watch also Coin for Monday. Takes out 220. You got $47 of downside. Watch that as well. And I go, listen, we'll start putting in more pivots as the day progresses. But you really don't need a lot. That's the whole point. That's the whole point. Take on the way down on Amazon. Perfect. Navidia. I still like this Roku. Still far it hasn't confirmed. New lows on Amazon. Navidia destroyed. Possible move to 730. Went to 724. Bill Newheye's work. I kind of like this work, by the way. Look at Slack. I doubt it confirms. I think the market's weak. But just in case it's strong, keep an eye on the Slack above this $45 area. Amazon more lows. Navidia is 730 on deck. So that's it, guys. That's it. We're set up for Monday all in all. The market continues to be, quote unquote, macro strong. But guys, pay attention to that $355 area, especially for the investors at any close below $355. You're going to have some short-term damage. Guys, have a great day. Have an awesome weekend. And with God's help, I'll see you all Monday. Take care.