 The regular season finale coming up this weekend for the NASCAR Cup Series. It's the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona and I could not be more thrilled. The idea of putting Daytona as a final regular season event is awesome because it means that there is one playoff spot left for a driver who wins this race or Tyler Reddick or Austin Dillon based on points, desperation at a track where a lot of people can win. It's going to lead to some fun racing on Saturday but also potentially some calamity. We have ways to account for that in our NASCAR DFS lineup. So let's get you set for Saturday night's race. Welcome on into the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire. That's right here on the FanDual Podcast Network in numberfire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com here to preview Saturday nights Coke Zero Sugar 400 once again, Saturday night. So if you are like me and tend to procrastinate, make sure you get your lineups in by Saturday. Lock in at 7 p.m. Eastern on Saturday night. So don't forget because I am always nervous about that. I'm excited to watch this race on Saturday. It's going to be a delight with all the playoff implications, just a general Daytona race overall too. So should be a whole lot of fun. Before we dive into the track breakdown, make sure you are subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. Wherever you get your podcasts, you can find us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, iHeartRadio, Odyssey, I think? I don't know, we're kind of everywhere. So wherever you find your podcast, search for the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed, hit subscribe. And if you like what you hear, leave us a rating and review as well. Hey soccer fans, this season, FanDual and Captain Morgan are teaming up to give you a one of a kind soccer contest. Introducing Captain Morgan's Soccer Pick'Em, a weekly fantasy contest that is entirely free to play. The contest is simple. All you got to do is make quick predictions for Saturday games this soccer season. You will earn points for each correct pick and compete for a chance to win up to $3,000 in prizes every single week. Head over to FanDual and enter the Captain Morgan Soccer Pick'Em today. Must be 21 plus two, participate for more details to the FanDual.com or download the FanDual Fantasy app, eligibility restrictions apply and don't forget to make your game day more indeed delicious and sub in the Captain. Let's take a look at the track breakdown for this week in Daytona. If you've been playing NASCAR DFS long enough, you know how to play this. You know we want to prioritize place differential at these pack tracks. And this week lends itself perfectly to that based on the starting order that we have. If you're new here, here's what I mean by stacking the back. Daytona is a place where there are a lot of racks and thus tons of variants and finishing order, which means drivers starting deeper in the pack can make up ground pretty easily. We will also see a larger pool of drivers push or the win. It's not just the usual like five or so dudes. There are a lot of guys who can win this week. They're also just around 160 laps, which means there are 16 FanDual points available for lap sled. And you don't often see drivers monopolize those laps led. If we look at the two races, the two 400 mile races at Daytona, since they went away from restrictor plates, no driver has led more than 46 laps across those two races. So you're not gonna see dominators for the most part. And if they do dominate, probably gonna be hard to pin down who will do that. That pushes us toward a general strategy of trying to get place differential in our lineups. Those drivers starting further back have a better floor because if they crash, they're not gonna lose as many points of place differential, which means their floor is better, but they also have better ceiling because such a large percentage of the total points scored will come from place differential. There aren't a lot of situations in daily fantasy where the highest ceiling options, also the highest floor, pack races and NASCAR are the one exception to that rule. That's why the general mentality is looking for drivers who are starting further back. And it works out not just in theory, but also in practice because in February of this year for Daytona, three of the five drivers in the perfect lineups started 17th or lower. In August last year, three of the five drivers in the perfect lineups started in the back half of the field. So the starting order for this race is set by the same algorithm as the one used in that race last year. So we can still make this happen despite the fact there is no qualifying and there's no dual races for this race. We've got options in general and we've got options for this week, specifically Joey Logano starting back at 22nd. He is always in contention here. Austin Dillon is a former Daytona winner. He will start 27th. Ross Chastain has skills here. He is 29th. Got a lot of drivers in the middle of the pack who I think could push for a, push for a win honestly, but also for a top 10. Kaz Gralis running back at 38th. He was top 10 in Talladega. So we have drivers who fit this strategy and we know that is the right way to play things. Our core for cash games should be those drivers we just talked about. Those drivers starting further back. We'll go more in depth on them in the tier by tier breakdown, but that is our core for tournaments and the drivers we're gonna focus on for cash games. We do have flexibility to use guys closer to the front in tournaments though, because you do see drivers make their way in. Again, it was three out of five, not five out of five. We started further back in both those perfect lineups. Specifically what you wanna do is play the assumption game. That's where you pick an assumed winner and lock that driver in. The 43 points for a win are likely enough to put them in the perfect lineup. So we want the winner on our roster and that driver is likely to come from the front of the pack. Four of the five most likely winners in my simulations are starting in the top five for this race. Six of the top seven most likely winners are starting inside the top 10. So the winner of this race is very likely to come from the front of the pack. So pick your favorite guy there. I'll talk about some guys that like for assumption lineups later on. And then pick four drivers who can pay off for DFS without winning. And again, we'll talk about those drivers too. The drivers who are able to pay off without winning are more likely to come from the back of the pack. So get your assumed winner, pile in some place differential after that. When you play the assumption game, I would consider putting some correlated drivers in the lineup. Correlated drivers means like teammates or drivers on the same manufacturer. Because teamwork does matter a lot on drafting packs. Drafting tracks, I should say. In this race last year, Hendrick Motorsports had the top two spots of William Byron and Chase Elliott. Fords were pretty dominant back in February. They had the top four spots of two laps to go. Then they all wrecked each other. So that could happen too. My Penske stacks did not turn out well by the end of that race. But it doesn't always pay off. But if Joe Gibbs racing absolutely nails it this weekend, you can give yourself a big leg up by pairing some of those guys getting Chris Trebellon there, Bubba Wallace in there. So finding correlated drivers, I think is a key as always. Again, it does not always work out. We could see a Legato-Keselowski situation again this week, but still think it is worthwhile to do that for this race. So to recap here, our strategy for Daytona is to prioritize place differential, make those drivers your core for tournaments and your cash game plays. It's okay to play the assumption game for tournaments. You don't need to use a guy upfront in each lineup for tournaments because like, again, Legato could win, Austin Dillon could win. Those guys are starting to deeper in the pack, Tyler Redick, Bubba Wallace, Eric Almarola, Michael McDowell. You don't need a driver starting at the front to get the winner, but the most likely winners are at the front. So you can play the assumption game for tournaments and then consider correlated drivers when you are playing the assumption game because oftentimes the winner will get help from a teammate. So having some team stacks, manufacturer stacks is optimal for this week. So that is the strategy for this race. Let's talk about individual drivers who fit, said strategies by going tier by tier and breaking down the top options on fandual.com for this week, starting off with the elite tier that is Joey Legato at 14,000 through Austin Dillon at 12.5. And the two guys starting deeper in the pack here are Legato and Dillon. Their sour has got jacked up this week because they're starting so deep, but I still think they are the top two drivers, two best plays in the entire field. Legato has crashed out of five of the past six pack races, which seems less than ideal, but he's led double digit laps in nine of the past 10 such races. He was a half a lap away from any Daytona this year. He has had a top 10 average running position in four straight Daytona races. So if Legato gets you a clean race, you know he will push for win and I can guarantee if he gets a clean race, he will be in the perfect lineup. So he's starting 22nd, I adore Joey Legato. Dillon is starting 27th. He is a former Daytona 500 winner. He finished third there this year, who's also eighth in Talladega. And this is where play-off implications matter because he probably needs a win to make the playoffs unless Tyler Redick has a lot of trouble early on. So I wouldn't count Dillon out for that. Like I think he's overvalued for betting, likely due to the narrative, but I still have him winning 3.3% of the time. So he could win. I think that if you're looking at a cash game lineup, you start with Legato, then plug in Dillon. It is kind of top heavy. You will have to scramble a bit, but I think we have enough value place to make it work. So to me, cash games revolve around Legato and Dillon and I want to have a lot in tournaments too. Among the other two guys in this tier, Denny Hamlin is the best assumed winner. He's starting third, so no place differential juice, but he's just so good on these tracks. He knows how to avoid traffic or avoid the big incidents. You'll hear him on his radio saying I'm dipping out, I'm getting out of here. They're about to crash. So he dips the back of the pack, able to finish races. He's won two of the past three Daytona 500s. He won in Talladega last year. I'd put him above Chase Elliott in this tier among the assumed winners, but Chase Elliott's really good too. Elliott has a ton of speed on these tracks and speed does matter. So not saying don't use Elliott, but I'm saying between those two, I'll give a slight edge to Hamlin. As I'm gonna rank this tier, Legato won Dillon 2, Hamlin 3 and Elliott 4. The second tier is William Byron at 12,000 through Alex Bowman at 10K. And I think if you have a cash game lineup, I'm okay skipping over this tier entirely. And I'm not gonna be as exposed this tier as others in tournaments either. Nobody here starting lower than 15th, which is mostly the reason why I won't be here as often. Alex Bowman is the guy starting 15th. Think he could be a good tournament play because his salary is right by Ross Chastain. We'll talk about next. He's starting 29th. And I'm guessing Chastain will draw a lot of eyes away from Bowman, but Bowman has pushed for wins on these tracks before. He was second in Talladega a few years ago. He was seventh in last year's Daytona night race. Hendrick Kars again, always have crazy speed here. So I'm very okay with leaning on that and trying to be a bit overwin on Bowman for tournaments. Again, I think that Chastain will draw a little bit away. So I would not mind being overwin on Bowman just because 15th is not too high in the order. And I think that he is at least interesting. The guy I want to be overweight on as an assumed winner in this tier is Kyle Busch. Kyle Busch is starting fourth. So there is no place differential juice here, but I would say he's an underrated pack racer. He's had a top 10 average running position in six of the past 10 pack races. He just keeps getting caught up in other people's mistakes. Tyler Redick made a mistake in front of him last year. We saw Ricky Senna as junior wreck him a couple times a couple of years ago. It's, you know, he's putting himself in position to get wrecked because he's at the front, but like, you know, he's good. And that's what I would say. He's good. I kind of hope in using Bush that he hangs out in the back like Joe Gibbs racing did back in the 2020 Daytona 500. That kept him clean, got him to the end of the race. I think that they probably won't because they're so close to the front track position can be tough to get in Daytona. But if you're looking for betting recommendations, Kyle Busch by far my favorite for this week at 19 to one. But I also do like him as an assumed winner this week. And my hope would be that people don't use him because he's starting at the front and I can get overweight, but we'll see if people are hip to the strategy here for this week. I'm gonna rank this year Bowman one, Brad Kizolowski two because he's starting 10th, Kyle Busch three, Ryan Blaney four, William Byron five and Kyle Larson six. Blaney's really good on these tracks too. So although he's ranked fourth here, I try to get a couple of assumption lineups with Blaney in there as well. The mid-range is Ross Chastain at $9,800 through Tyler Redick at $8,200. And Chastain is the clear dude in this tier. And that's again why I think that Bowman will go overlooked. But the reason Chastain is likely popular is because he's a good play. He's starting 29th. I think that he has at least a shot to win this race. He had a 12th place average running position in February here, finished seventh. He ran well in Talladega. He's had good runs at Daytona even when he was in bad equipment. Now he's in good equipment, at least decent equipment. He needs a win to make the playoffs. And I would not be shocked if he gets the job done here. So Chastain to me, a cash gameplay and a really good tournament option as well. There are some guys in the middle of the pack here who I'm kind of hoping go overlooked because they're not super deep in the pack. And maybe they kind of get weeded out in favor of other guys. Those guys are Bubba Wallace, Eric Almerola and Tyler Redick. Those three are all starting between 17th and 20th. The guy starting 18th will talk about the next section as well. So this tier, this range to me, really attracted. They're not auto plays because they're starting in the middle of the pack, but I think they could all win. I've got the win odds for Wallace, Almerola and Redick all at 2.3% or higher. And they've got some place differential juice. Redick specifically, I think is going to be under roster because his win odds are longer than Wallace and Almerola. But he was amazing in these tracks and the extended series and the truck series, had a win at Daytona in both series, also to win in Talladega in the extended series. He is on the playoff bubble, which could lead to him prioritizing stage points, but that wouldn't impact his finish too much. We saw William Byron in a very similar spot last year where he was on the playoff bubble, was likely getting on points, but he had to walk off win. He won the race, got in based on the win rather than points. So I think Redick is in a similar spot this week and I do want to be high on him for Saturday's race. I know Bubba Wallace is going to be fast. I can say that with a lot of certainty because he had tremendous speed in both Daytona and Talladega. We know he has talent for these tracks too because he was second in the Daytona 500 a few years ago. He ranks 12th in my model, but he'll start 20th. So he's great. I think that the place differential upside there may be underestimated as specifically on FanDuel given the way that the place differential points work there. So Bubba Wallace to me, a great play as well. Almerola, former winner here too. So I'm going to rank this here. Chastain one, I'll go Bubba two over Redick by a hair. Redick three, Almerola four, Christopher Bell five. And if you're looking for like stacks, like I was talking about Kyle Busch as an assumed winner, pairing Bush with Christopher Bell and Bubba Wallace going all in on the Toyotas. I think that's a really good strategy for this week for tournaments. Ricky Senes Jr. is sixth, but he is still in play. He could win this race too. So really good tier in this mid-range. And that's why I'm also okay glossing a bit over that upper tier, that second tier. The value plays are Cas Gralla at $8,000 to Ryan Priest at $6,000. Gralla is starting 38th, which makes him a firm priority for cash games. We know Collegracing is speed. They won with AJ Almondinger a couple of weeks ago at Indy. It was because of a lot of weird stuff going on, but like you don't look into a win in the NASCAR Cup series. They had enough speed to get that done. We saw Gralla finish inside the top 10 in Talladega. He won a Daytona in a truck race during his age 18 season, which is frightening to think about, but he's been top five in the XINITY series here twice. He's a great pack racer. So I think that Gralla makes sense because the equipment is good enough and the driver is good too. So Cas Gralla a priority for cash games. And I'm really, really hoping that I can be overwin at him in tournaments. I know people will talk about him this week, but I don't care when you use him anyway. I think he's awesome. Michael McDowell is starting 18th. Obviously the Daytona 500 winner. He has three other top fives in pack races since the start of 2019. So good pack racer. He was third in Talladega this year. So it's not like that win was a fluke. He's good. The mid-range of Redick, Almerola, Bubba, McDowell, all 17th to 20th, I think that I want to just mix and match a lot and try to get a lot of exposure to that range. Maybe just use all four of them in the same lineup. I think it's a tremendous, tremendous range for this race. One guy in this range who might go overlooked is Ryan Priest. He's starting 24th. So he's not like super deep in the field, but he's got four top 10s in 10 pack races. He was top five in one of those. He was sixth in this year's Daytona 500. He's $6,000. So if you want to jam in Dylan and Magano, I think that Priest can make that a whole lot easier because his salary is so low at $6,000. So I do like Ryan Priest quite a bit as a potential cash game option, but also for tournaments more so this week. He tends to be a little bit volatile, but that's okay. Everyone's volatile at Daytona. I'm gonna rank this here. Kaz Grala one, Michael McDowell two, Ryan Priest three, and then Kevin Hardwick will be number four. The punting tier is Corey LeJoy at $5,500 on down. LeJoy, definitely a viable option this week. He missed last week's due to being a COVID close contact, which means he'll start 33rd. He has four top 10s in the past 10 pack races. Three of those were in Daytona, including a ninth place run this year. LeJoy doesn't have the best upside because his equipment is suboptimal. Like I'd give the heavy edge to Grala in terms of equipment, but I do like LeJoy at $5,500. Would not be a posting for cash games if you need additional wiggle room to jam in Dylan and Logano. Chris Bush was starting 13th. So doesn't fit the optimal strategy from a place differential perspective. And at such a low salary, I think that like he's still interesting. He's really good on these tracks. He was third in last year's Daytona 500, almost won that race when I had bet him and I was sad when they threw the caution as he was about to pass to Eddie Hamlin. He had a couple of top fives here in 2018 as well. So I'm not gonna have a ton of Busher because he's not starting far enough back, but I do expect I'll be overweight on him because he's not a guy who will pop in projection systems this week, but he has a decent shot to finish top five. So Busher to me, worth getting to despite not fitting the optimal build for this week. And right this punting tier, LeJoy won, Busher two, Chase Prisco three, Landon Castle four. He's a good driver, but like Gump Brothers Racing has been just kind of whatever so far. So I will use Castle, but I'm not like bending over backwards to get him. And I might want to be underweight on him. Justin Haley is a great driver, not the best equipment again, but he's still in for five for me. Eric Jones is six. I would use any of those guys, but LeJoy to me the standout in this tier and Busher the guy I want to be overweight on for tournaments. That wraps up the tier by tier breakdown, but do you want to finish up with some win picks for this week? We got Ryan Blaney as our lower salary guy last week. Got the win there. So we've gotten Kurt Bush, we got now Expoman, Ryan Blaney, we had a couple of runner-ups, Christopher Bell. So gotta keep the streak moving. One driver above 10,001 below. And I will pick Kyle Bush as the guy above $10,000. My model loves him. I understand why. So Kyle Bush to me the best bet of this week, but also my win pick above $10,000. Among those under $10,000, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is the highest win odds in my simulations. He's at 3.8% there, which actually puts him right in line with his implied betting odds at 3.7%. And I think it makes sense. So my win picks for this week are Kyle Bush and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. We'll see if we can keep the streak going with another lower salary winner for this week. Either way though, gonna be a fun race on Saturday night. Once again, do not forget to get those lineups in before lock Saturday night, 7pm. Weird time for this week. Make sure you get them in early. That is all that we have here for today on the Heat Check Fantasy podcast. But as always, quick reminder to make sure you check out the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. Wherever you get your podcasts for UFC, MLB, PGA, NFL just around the corner. A lot of good stuff here on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. Check that out wherever you get your podcasts. If you have questions for me, I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the fan to a podcast network on that fan to a podcast. Big thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Enjoy the race on Saturday night. Hopefully we see another outstanding finish once again with the playoffs on the line. It is going to be a thrill and I cannot wait for the green flag to drop. We'll talk to you once again next week. This has been the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire.