 Last night you Darvish's game got rained out, which means that if you use you Darvish in DFS your pitcher scored zero points I wish I had used you Darvish in DFS last night because he actually outscored Kyle Gibson was my top pitcher last night Kevin Gosman didn't do a whole lot better. So You know, there's nowhere to go but up for today and MLB DFS from pitching perspective The problem is a lot of the pitchers on today's slate carry similar risks to the ones last night Where sure they've got upside but the floors are not good I can't pinpoint anyone on the slate who has a what I would deem to be a good floor for today So we're gonna dig on in try to identify a guy who has an acceptable floor But also a path to a good ceiling and see what we can cook up for today. Welcome on into the solo shot That's right here on the fan dual podcast network in number fire comm. My name is Jim Sonnis I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire comm here to break down today's 13 a game main slate with box ever 705 4 to night. There are a couple of rain notes here for today There is a chance of rain in Buffalo for the blue jays and the red socks It doesn't look as if it'll be a total wash It's definitely worth checking back on later But I am operating under the assumption that game will play as of right now Rain is possible in Atlanta again today for the Padres and the Braves That is one you'll have to check back on later the doubleheader is scheduled for tomorrow as opposed to today So maybe that was a choice on purpose. I'm not sure either way check back on the rain for Atlanta and Buffalo tonight It is 93 degrees today in Coorsfield for the Rockies and the Mariners and the winds are out to center at 10 miles per hour Awesome conditions for hitters there upgrade here just there We'll talk about the Rockies in the stacking section for tonight We'll get into the pitching preview here in just one second But first make sure you tune in later on today to check out our MLB DFS Q&A as always that is at 4 p.m Eastern of Fandal YouTube twitch Facebook and Twitter pages no PGA portion for today because Brandon is on vacation Which also means I'll be flying solo for the PGA heat check later on today That's a 10 a.m. On the Fandal YouTube page and also up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed after that Make sure you are subscribed to the Fandal YouTube page and also the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed Like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well We are on to game number six tonight and the Taco Bell comeback bonus is still in play Introduced in the Fandal sports book in Taco Bell and the a finals comeback bonus the terms are simple All you have to do is head to Fandal sports book before tip-off and place a $25 pre-live money-line bet and either team to win if the team you bet on overcomes a halftime deficit to win You will be eligible to win a $10 bonus and Fandal site credit You'll win your bets and you'll earn a bonus that is more ways to win Thanks to our friends at Taco Bell users must opt in to the promo in order to be eligible for the bonus payout Eligible every NBA final scheme until the bonus hits must be 21 plus and present in Colorado, Iowa, Illinois Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia or West Virginia Bonus issued is a non with throttle site credit that expires in seven days max bonus $10 Restrictions apply see terms that sportsbook.fandal.com gambling problem call 100 gambler in Colorado 105 to 24700 in Iowa 100 bets off In Indiana one hundred nine with it for confidential help in Michigan one hundred two seven oh seven one one seven in Tennessee Call the red line one eight hundred eighty nine nine seventy nine or in West Virginia There's a one hundred gambler dot net pitching preview for this Tuesday main sleigh you Darvish again The highest salary pitcher on the slave for today. He checks into 11 to a reminder once again Darvish is coming off the aisle Probably about 85 or so pitches for Darvish tonight if I had to guess so he is the highest salary guy But keep that in mind Trevor Rodgers is 10,000 on Fandal. Luis Garcia is $9,600 Wade Miley is 93 Erin Nolan checks in and ninety one hundred dollars and we have Alex Wood and my Marquez Terrick Scoobl and John Means as the others at $8,000 or higher When you hear that list you can probably tell why there are some heads in this year because Darvish not a Really an option for me given the concerns around his length given the weather the matchup even with no Acunia It's still a tough matchup Garcia is facing Cleveland. They've been pretty good recently Miley is not a big strikeout guy There aren't a lot of clear definitive answers here So I feel okay going to Erin Nola is my top option despite the fact there's a lot of risk If you're playing a cash game, I don't think Nola is your guy I'll talk about someone else in a bit so you can go to there, but for tournaments I am in on Nola here. He's facing the Yankees and that's why I do not want him in cash The game is in New York. He is on the road. He is facing a DH There are a lot of reasons to be wary here of Erin Nola the outside though is Likely unmatched. Nola has seen some movement change since the sticky stuff discussion began It's not a lot but a little bit He has had a bit less vertical movement on his curveball over his past six starts It has not had a negative impact in that time He has a 36% strikeout right with a 6% walk rate and those strikeouts have come on the road too Which is a key for Nola because he typically has been a guy who I do bump down a decent amount when he's on the road Versus when he is at home in the three road starts in this time Nola has a strikeout rate of 7% and 1 then 55% and 32% So it's volatile He could get rocked like he did against San Francisco But he also could strikeout everyone like he did against the Mets the the Yankees are a team He did face near the beginning of the stretch They was in Philly so keep that in mind But Nola had nine strikeouts over seven and two-thirds shut out innings I am not expecting that again here given that this game is on the road But I think we can use pitchers against the Yankees shouldn't feel like tremendous about it But I think we can they have a 24% strikeout rate versus righties with the 95 WRC plus I think it is totally fine to go here as long as you are in the right format aka not a cash game And you're okay with the risk. I am he could be very similar to Gibson last night Like it's within Nola's range of outcomes to score negative points here But because the upside is so high because the salary is so low at $9,100 Nola is my top tournament pitcher of the night for tonight As far as which picture I want to go to in cash games. I actually am okay Savings and salary there and going down to Terry scuba. He is $8,200 and I don't mind that personally He's had a really rough schedule recently and things get a lot easier tonight against the Rangers And I'm willing to use him as a result The most relevant sample for scuba is over his past six starts because that's when the movement on his pitches has been lower In those starts here is the ranking of his opponents by WRC plus against lefties They have ranked first 20th 22nd 2nd 1st and 7th the two softer matchups He had were against lower strikeout teams. So this is the first time in this stretch He gets a bad offense against lefties that is willing to strike out the Rangers rank 25th and WRC plus versus lefties Their strikeout rate is 24% and scuba was fine despite having that tough schedule He had a 3.99 skill interactive. He already his strikeout rate is 25% And he had nine as strikeouts over seven innings of one-run ball against Houston Which is really tough to do. He had six strikeouts in both games against the White Sox So the results were not always great. His ERA is over four in this time But you also don't expect good results against those teams He is at home here, which helps. So again, it's not a safe play There are there are paths to failure for scuba, but I don't think any real safe plays exist on this slate So I'm fine taking a bit more risk and letting it ride here I think that scuba showed up well enough against tough opponents and now he gets a softer opponent for tonight So to me scuba does make a lot of sense if I had to pick a pitcher for a cash game for tonight Scuba would likely be that guy Single entry tournament. I'll go Nola for a cash game Give me scuba but scuba does have Tournament appeal as well because there is a path to a ceiling for him would rank in second for tournaments behind Aaron Nola Number three for me. We Trevor Rogers scuba is our value play for tonight $8,200 Rogers is $10,000 That is 900 more than Nola and I think his ceiling is lower than Nola's That's why I'm ranking him behind both those guys, but I am still okay using Rogers here He's facing the Nationals and they're definitely a better team versus lefties and righties They have a 111 WRC plus versus lefties, but they do strike out a bit a 23% strikeout rate for the Nats versus lefties Which means we can use pitchers against them Just know that there is some risk involved here. The upside should be there. It's not as high as Nola's Yeah, it's probably about on par with scubles at least but not as high as Nola's but it's it's there Rogers still not going deep in games They've got him on an innings limit So I'm not expecting that to change but he did go 99 and 96 pitches across his path three starts So even if he's not going eight innings, there is wiggle room with his pitch count I think that's reassuring He should be good in the innings is out there too because Rogers has had a bit less sink on his foreseemer across his past seven starts He still has a 3.55 skill interactive VRA with a 29% strikeout rate His hard hit rate against is 31% now some Marlins pitchers do have pretty extreme home road splits And that's a concern here because Rogers is on the road and it's a good hitting part But Rogers not one of those guys we should downgrade too much on the road He actually has a slightly higher strikeout rate and a slightly better ERA on the road than a home It's not bumping him up and on the road, but I'm not gonna abandon ship by any means either I do want to make sure I am lower on him than I am on Nola and scubble But I will still use Rogers and rank him third here So for tournaments give me Nola one scubble two Rogers three for cash gains I think that Eric scubble is a top option for today now in ranking Nola and scubble one two We've kind of got some salary flexibility here for our stacks And I would like to use that by stacking the Jays against Gary Richards again Check back on the weather here for tonight because there are some question marks there But if it's good to go the Jays will be awesome Richards has been one of the faces of the spin rate discussion ever since it started He is obviously been struggling in this time things have been a bit better recently But that's just the results the peripherals for Richards have still been pretty rough And he hasn't always been facing teams as good as a Toronto blue Jays the movement for Richards hit its low point five starts ago We in the five start sense. He has a 5.59 skill interactive ERA with just an 11% strikeout rates His hard hit rate is 46%. The one thing he is doing. Well is limiting fly balls Richards has allowed a 32% fly ball rate So that's lower than he'd want but the dingers will still come he led three home runs in one start He led up two in another and the Jays fully willing to supply their own long balls here They leave the slate in both isolated slugging and WRC plus against the opposing pitchers handedness I think it makes a lot of sense to go right back to them here And the Jays to me if we get the all clear in the weather are the number one stack for today I want to talk quickly about Lourdes Gouriel obviously From a salary slash spot in the order perspective Not a guy we turn to very often and also, you know, he hasn't been the highest upside guy versus righty's I think that latter part is changing. I tend to skip over Gouriel in stacking the Jays against the righty But he's been better if we look at just since June 1st So arbitrary cutoff, but you know, whatever since June 1st Gouriel has a 247 ISO versus righty's his fly ball raise at 37% and Given how quickly power stabilizes. I am more willing to bind to this and a lot of other stuff We talked about this Mike and Forto yesterday where if a guy's hitting the ball really hard That to me is more impactful than a lot of other stuff and Gouriel hitting the ball pretty hard So he's not a value obviously at $3300 batting eight That's not really the mesh that you want to have in terms of a hitter But that could also allow him to go overlooked So I'm not gonna rank him above Taylor star Hernandez or Kevin Biggio We're talking about the non elite elite studs here Obviously George Springer and Boba Shad are pretty under salary too, but I would say if you are Getting a lot of Jays stacks in there I would you know try to squeeze in some Gouriel because things do appear to be trending up versus righty's and He's in a good spot for tonight So for tournaments try to get some in there at least to safeguard yourself in case the power binge continues as for the number two stack the Rockies are at home tonight facing a Latte and Marco Gonzalez and Weather is perfect. So do you want to stack the Rockies? Gonzalez is a good pitcher He's just dealing with some injuries this year not pitching all that well through them And I feel okay using bats against him as a result Gonzalez had two separate stints on the aisle this year The first time he came back and his velocity was a big time familiar part of the season That was encouraging But the results still weren't there then he got hurt again came back off the aisle a second time on July 3rd The velocity not quite as high as it was in his first return and again the results have not been there Gonzalez actually out of five home runs in his two starts since returning Overall since he returned from this first cent on the aisle Gonzalez is letting up a 47% fly ball rates His hard hit rate is high enough at 39% Strike at rate is 21% Now he has to go to course field and the Rockies are a much better team versus lefties than righties They rank third in Woba against lefties at home I do want to look at Woba when it comes to home road splits because we don't need to account for the park It's the same part. So they rank third in Woba versus lefties at home. So When you put them in this exact scenario versus lefty at home, they are a good offense Gonzalez could get back to being a good pitcher. He's had 10 plus days off. Maybe that rest will help and He's been a good pitcher in his past. I think that's still in there But I'm okay stacking the Rockies here and seeing what happens and it does help that like just may player picking Perspective PPP it is a lot easier to find guys who want to use against the lefty Trevor story CJ Crone Garrett Hampson Hampson really shows his power versus lefties Brandon Rogers is pretty similar where it's a small sample But a 268 ISO for him versus lefties So I think those four crone Hampson's story Rogers are all going to be a great stacking combination for today For the Rockies and they are a team. I want to prioritize also I should know that Rogers and Hampson are both below $3,000. So not too hard to get them. Even if you go NOLA or potentially even with with Rogers for today We were on the Reds last night and it was a lot of fun that game overall a thrill to watch and the Reds popped off He went out without Nick Costiano's for the most part I want to do the same here and go back to them once again. This time the Reds are facing Robert Stock He made two starts in the big leagues earlier this year one with the Cubs one of the Mets and They didn't go all that well. He has many walks his strikeouts across those two starts He has gotten more strikeouts in triple-a, but the results were still not great I think a big part of that is stocks bad at ball data his fly ball rate has been very high both this time with the Cubs triple-a team and with the Mets and That's not what he has typically done during his career So you could make you want to be skeptical here, but it's worth noting bad at ball data does stabilize more quickly than other data He has changed his pitch mix. He has a cutter this year. Whereas he was more of a slider guy in the past. So I would not be shocked if the the backwards movement in his bad at ball data sticks around I would not be shocked if the bad results continue for stock here the Reds a powerful offense in a good park and They showed the upsides of that last night. So I think we should go back to them here once again for today What occurred to think with Castellanos is that red that he did get in a plate appearance last night He made contact exit velocity was ninety four point five miles per hour So the wrist injury for Castellanos does not seem too bad, which means Hey, then he might play tonight, but also be I Tend to worry about wrist injuries wrists obliques, etc, etc But that seemed okay shoulders as well, but seemed like he was okay last night So if Castellanos does play I will feel comfortable using him for tonight whereas a lot of guys with wrist injuries I'm not super in but I think with Castellanos. We might be okay for today. Let's move on to things to watch I'm guessing the Astros will generate buzz tonight because they're the Astros and they're facing a team or a picture with a 5.470 array I'm okay with them, but I'm also okay being lower on them than consensus. They're facing Tristan McKenzie He's looked you look good in his most recent start and it's not just the results It's because he had a lot of Velo on his pitches It seemed like he was throwing his curve ball differently than he was in his first stint He'd been in triple A for the previous month of basically a month and a half and he got some strikeouts down there, too So I'm wondering if McKenzie being in triple A may have unlocked something You know work with the pitching coaches stuff like that. It's possible that he has figured something out So I don't think that Astros are out of play definitely not they're definitely in play for stacking He'll get up a lot of walks a lot of fly balls a lot of hard contact, but McKenzie might be improving He doesn't let the ton of balls in play to begin with so I am okay being underweight on the Astros If that's what it comes to I think they're fine But I'm okay being underweight for today. The Red Sox are in a good spot tonight against Robert Hatch I just didn't want to include them in stacks because the Jays were there There's some potential weather there didn't want to burn two spots in a game that might be risky But I think the Red Sox really do work for tonight Hatch seems to a good job of suppressing hard contact because he has very much outperforming his peripherals in triple A and That tends to be the result of that a lot of times is just getting you know We contact but Hatch will let up base runners So if we get the all-clear on weather here, I'd say the Red Sox are a very fun number four stack for today And they're in the same tier for me as the Reds Yeah, I would say it's like blue Jays Rockies and then a tear down to Reds Red Sox But all four very fun options for today Finally, I did one touch on the Dodgers pitching situation for tonight It looks like they're gonna be calling up Josiah Gray and have him be the bulk pitcher for today Maybe not the starter, but like the bulk guy and Gray is pretty fun He's gone 15 and two thirds innings at triple A this year So a very small sample, but 39 percent strikeout rate. His swing strike rate is 16.6 percent Gray does let up a lot of fly balls, but that is more acceptable when you let up fewer balls in play Which he seems to do so not gonna stack the Giants here I want to see what Gray does could be pretty fun But we'll see how things play out there But overall just didn't want to mention that despite the fact we don't need data on this guy Not someone I want to stack against out of the gate. Okay, that's things to watch Let's finish up here with some Dinger calls for tonight And I always do a boring one and a fun one The boring one is gonna be boring Vladimir Guerrero, Jr Facing a guy who's really struggled since the sticky stuff discussion being real bull But hey my podcast my rules so Vladimir Guerrero, Jr The Dinger pick for tonight also it is Dinger Tuesday for today would note that the fun one aka not flat aka not the guy with like 97 home runs so far this year nacho. Hey, Otani the fun one for me is Brendan Rogers obviously Coors is kind of a cop out but salary under three thousand dollars Five home runs so far this year. I think that Rogers will get number six tonight So the homerun calls tonight Vladimir Guerrero, Jr And Brendan Rogers because it is Dinger Tuesday make sure you tune in for the Q&A later on today Get your home run picks in we'll talk about those on the stream for today 4 p.m. On the fangal YouTube twitch Facebook and Twitter pages swing by there also check out the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed for the PGA podcast later on today Talking about the 3m open I'm flying solo for a podcast about a golf tournament in Minnesota should be a lot of fun Love that for sure. Make sure you hit up the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed or swing by YouTube at 10 a.m. Today if you have questions for me, I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J-i-m-s-a-n-n-e-s you can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to Evan for tuning in for today Hopefully pitching goes better today than it did last night if it does we'll talk to tomorrow if not No promises. We'll see either way. This has been the solo shot right here on the fan dual podcast network