 Hello, welcome to the joint production of The Citizen and NewsClip. Today we are going to discuss about the UP elections and we are joined by Sima Mustafa who is editor-in-chief of The Citizen and has been writing on Uttar Pradesh for more than three decades now. Sima, welcome to our program. So before we move further, there is a quagmire that is developing within the Samajwadi party. What do you have to say about it? You know, sometimes you feel that the chaos could be actually an opportunity and I think this time in UP this could become an opportunity for Akhilesh Yadav. I mean of course if it had happened much earlier it would have been slightly more beneficial but the point is that he by actually standing firm on issues of corruption as symbolized by the legislators who are corrupt and who Mulan is supporting against criminalization, and symbolized by legislators that his father is supporting who he does not want to be given tickets. He has managed to, one, acquire the clean anti-corruption, anti-criminalization image along with doing development work for which he anyway was getting some browning points. So you mean to say that the entire arithmetic of incorporating the Komi Ittadal and then Atik Ahmad and shielding all these people that has backfired from Ulayam Singh Yadav? I think so. I think Ulayam Singh for obvious reasons and reasons of commission more than omission has managed to get that baggage of corruption, goons, gundais, anti-law and order attached to himself. So by reading his father, getting rid of his father as it were, Akhilesh has actually divested himself of that baggage, that baggage is not sticking to him. So that is an amazingly clever move and he has done it very respectfully. He has always ensured that his photo ops with his father even in these bad days has always shown him as very differential, very respectful whereas Mulan Singh has been speaking against his son to anyone who meets him. So this also news that there is a coalition changes between the Congress, RLD and Samanwadi party. Do you see that developing and if that happens what impact will it have? Congress has been trying to write piggyback on anybody. So first they tried Mayawati, at that time it seemed that Mayawati was actually going to give a very good fight which is still might, I mean it is still too early to say anything but at that time Samajwadi because of Mulan Singh and Amar Singh was really down. So they tried with Mayawati, she said no way. Then they tried with Samajwadi, now Mulan is against it but Akhilesh has always been for it and from the reports that we get there is a good equation between him and between Rahul Gandhi, the Congress. So the Congress itself has no vote and the Congress itself is not going to bring anything of its own to the table and if the Congress was going to contest separately and individually it might remain at this low figure of under 10, 5, 4, 3 you know anything. But if it attaches itself to Akhilesh and in this new kind of resurgence then you know the youth factor together looking for a cohesive government all that will then start making the waves. So do you think there is a coalition building up between Muslims, Yadavs and the Jats which may be beneficial for Samajwadi party? I think this time it's not going to be very you know the usual known equations and even the report in the media though it has said that the Jats are angry it depends where the Jats go at the end of the day. So I am not going to count too much on who is going where but what I think that Akhilesh needs to actually win now at a time when the BJP is projecting Modi as somebody who is cutting across all cast lines or that he is but that's the projection that he is anti-corruption because of demonetization which is might be might not be is not but then that's the projection and that he is anti-criminalization so you have this clean prime minister image and so if you vote for him you vote for a good government right. But this time because of the position he is taken Akhilesh has emerged as the anti-corrupt, anti-criminal, anti-pro development the same God has come to Akhilesh Yadav and Akhilesh Yadav is seen by all communities in UP whether they vote for him or not as a good guy as a guy who's for development he's got that mass appeal like you said he reaches out to the youth and he's a local and he's somebody they've seen for the last five years they feel he's responsive he's sensitive it isn't that he's only going to the Yadav or only going to the Muslim he is accessible to all now that is a very strong image and a very strong plus which can really stand for him he'll have to if he has to win he has to cut across all. You pointed out a very important thing that Modi is being projected as someone who has a clean image and if you look in Uttar Pradesh and the BJP they don't have any face to project in Uttar Pradesh or they are projecting prime minister at the face of Uttar Pradesh elections so what is BJP actually banking on because if we look at the news reports the entire demonetization seems to have fallen flat. I don't know whether it's actually fallen flat it has definitely gone fallen flat amongst the thinking sections of people who can and the economists who have actually pointed out the kind of impact that's happening on the informal sector all the migrants who have gone back into UP who have been working say in Punjab in other states so all that is of course happening to what extent it's happening is something on the ground we still have to gauge and probably these elections will help us in gauging that mainly also because the BJP's campaign is very high you know and they are actually the perceptions are very based on falsehood based on anything and not on facts they are being able to project that look we've done it we've hit the corruption but what I'm trying to say is that even if you take that perception to be the perception that people are admitting to they would bank and others are looking at Akhilesh Yadav has actually proven that on the ground by going for a split in the Samajwadi party regardless of everything so that ticket as it were has gone to him as well so the BJP is not alone and like you said he is a homegrown boy he is not the Prime Minister of India sitting in Delhi and in state elections people want their Chief Minister there and they like to know who their Chief Minister is as you can see in Bihar the BJP didn't have a chance because it was so many factions that they couldn't project a face and Nitesh Kumar romped home that was one of the factors there were many factors similarly in UP also in Northern India in these poor states people like to know who they are voting for do you think that BJP will again go back to its old politics of generalizing the society to win UP election they haven't given that up by the way demonetization is for you and me and for a certain class who they are addressing you know the slightly informed in the on the ground whether it's particularly in Western UP the politics of Communism is continuing the RSS card is there all the various outfits are there they're having house-to-house campaigns door-to-door campaigns and that hate and that anger they continuously working on that you know so that hasn't stopped the BJP cannot ever get away from that divisive anti-Indian politics of now let's come to Maya Vati she's the only person who has announced her candidate still now but there's no not much hype about her entire campaign we can't see her going in addressing public meetings what actually is she doing Maya Vati doesn't do that see that's why I'm saying one doesn't ever rule Maya Vati out you might not rule her in but you can rule her out I remember when she lost won the election everybody didn't even see her on the ground she is a quiet vote she is a vote which is the Dalit the most oppressed vote in UP that does not speak except for the Jata now if you go into Western UP you'll find them speaking out a bit but the Dalit doesn't essentially tell you what his preference is particularly when the when the other campaign is very aggressive right and today the Muslim is also not speaking now it's very clear that Dalit and Muslim is what she's looking at she has sent for from a woman who is never at times never given even one seat to a Muslim has fielded hundred plus so the point is that there is a certain but she's also fielded upper caste so she's trying very hard to get that consolidation behind her which by the way I think she would have had the split in the Samaj Vati not taken place in Mulayam was still calling the shots and if Akhilesh was still listening to him then the chances of the vote shifting to Maya Vati were very high and till two months ago three months ago many of us who were you know looking at UP closely got the feeling that she is going to be moving ahead but now with this kind of a change that has happened in the Samaj Vati which is why I said it can be an opportunity you might find a landslide support for Akhilesh Yadav I don't believe there's going to be anything hung you know I believe that in UP in a time which is so highly political where the stakes are so high where people have been made to believe that the stakes are even higher than they might be people are not going to vote you know piecemeal this would be my last question so whoever wins don't you think it would be end of politics for the opposition be it BSP or SP and BJP is going to emerge out as the as the second most important party in Uttar today no I don't think so I think that even if you look at the 2014 general elections when the BJP seemed to have swept UP in parliament you had the vote percentages of the Samaj Vati and the and BSP very high so these people are there they're there for good I mean they're there they have a base they have a very very strong base Mayavati also doesn't have age against her to that extent and Akhilesh Yadav is if not this election then he's got the next general election to look at right and I think that UP is going to carry many lessons and it is going to carry lessons for the opposition it's going to carry lessons for the BJP regardless of who wins or loses and it is going to pave the way towards the general elections one way or the other and we must remember that in all the elections since 2014 everywhere there where there has been a regional party the BJP has lost it is only one when it is fighting the Congress because and which very again carries a very strong lesson for all of those who are looking all of us who look at the BJP and the Congress as an alternative thanks a lot for giving us your time and as these things possibly will be coming back to you on such issues thanks a lot thank you for watching our program