 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Big college football playoff implications on the line in week number 12 We're gonna break down some of those key games with Brett McMurphy of the action ever getting his read on those games and talking about college Football betting in general and what should be a fun week across the nation This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim saw this I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined you once again and by dr Ed fang a check out add on Twitter at the power rank check out his work at the power rank calm and Ed Follow we could college football coming up. How you doing? I'm doing pretty well. I'm still stunned at how much Oregon's offense just ground to a stop when bow nicks got hurt for a series but Washington with a huge win and Oregon's loss clearly helps some of the big 10 teams out here in my area Yeah, definitely does you call you had a Washington plus 13 and a half for that game, too That doesn't hurt either as well, but we're joined as mentioned by Brett McMurphy You can find Brett on Twitter at Brett underscore McMurphy if you somehow do not already follow him there His work is over at the action network where he is a college football insider and Brett's got the new CFP rankings Last night got a fun slate on tap week 12. How are you doing today? Great good to be with you guys Ed I've been an admirer of your work from afar good good to meet you in person and good to be with you Jim It's always fun every college football guest we have on immediately like has to like talk about Ed stuff Which I appreciate always makes me very happy inside Ed is the best So I echo those sentiments as well We're gonna break down all of college football week 12 and get Brett's thoughts Not just on those games But also on the unique perspective that he has with betting college football games in just second But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts Of course Apple podcast Spotify Stitcher Google podcast Amazon podcast We are there search for covering the spread hit subscribe And if you like what you hear leave us a rating interview as well twisted tea and a fan dual have joined forces to bring you a One-of-a-kind contest series that gives you a chance to compete for your share of thousands of dollars in psych credit Introducing twisted tees college football picks a sports betting focused contest series That's entirely free to play the contest is simple each college football game will be assigned a money line spread and total market With assigned points to each market all you have to do Is make six selections based on those markets and earn points for each correct selection you made if at the end of The day your score ranks among the best in the contest You'll be eligible for your share outside credit head to faddle comm slash twisted tea picks and make your picks and remember Please drink responsibly now Brett It's fun to have you on the show for today because Ed and I both come at this from a a numbers perspective That's where our background is but you've got a super unique Perspect not just relative to us but also relative to most of the betting industry as a journalist So how does that background help inform the way you view betting on college football? Probably the biggest thing is never believe anything a coach says in a press conference. I Know I've talked to you know Stucky and Colin that work with me at the action network when we're having when we're on a Call or doing a podcast and they'll say Coach coach XYZ said this this week and I'm like guys He's lying. Don't listen to him. It's not specifically one coach It's basically every coach college coaches specifically. I'm not talking NFL college coaches specifically are the most paranoid coaches on This planet and they are not going to give an ounce of information Out that they think may help their team and one great example is and and look I'm an Oklahoma State alum So I'm not dissing anybody but my own alma mater Oklahoma State hosted ESPN College game day a few years ago Usually the way you do it is when the Broadcast team comes in the day before the game you meet with them You go over injuries and the agreement is look here's the skinny But you can't announce it until right before kickoff pretty much everybody will do that well Oklahoma State had a court starting quarterback with a broken leg Oklahoma State did not reveal that to any of the pre Pre-broadcast meetings college game day was there. No one at ESPN knew about it ESPN televised the game kickoff Here comes a starting lineup the quarterbacks not in the lineup. They you know reach out to the PR guys Hey, what's going on? Why isn't he in there? Oh, it's senior day. We're starting the senior. Okay, that's fine Now it's in the second quarter and the guys still not in there. They're finally they say, oh, yeah, he's not playing He's got a broken leg so Wow, you know, some coaches are really paranoid about that. They think it's a big advantage or disadvantage others, you know aren't aren't is Paranoid I guess some coaches actually will be very, you know up front and honest It's very rare that you see that But I've talked to guys, you know that I worked with the DSP in other places that cover College football and then cover the NFL and they're like Brett man NFL is like a total Totally different atmosphere you walk in and they're like, okay, here's the deal this guy's hurt this guy's this this this this There's no hiding anything. So I guess a long-winded answer is when you hear a coach on a Tuesday press conference talking I Do the opposite because he's not telling you the truth That's fascinating Jim and I were talking before the show about Katie Jefferson and how he didn't play for Arkansas Yeah, perfect example. Yeah, when did that come out? We were we didn't know exactly when that news came out. I Had heard about it early in the week, but I couldn't confirm it and then I think about 20 minutes before kickoff I can confirmed it and tweeted that he was definitely out You know, there's there's been a lot of quarterbacks this year, especially in college football where yeah, you know The uncertainty Spencer Sanders is a perfect example. You know, I reported the past two weeks. He wouldn't play They've they've alternated with the freshman quarterbacks Sanders wasn't supposed to play last week But basically they needed him and he said, you know, look, I'm not a hundred percent I'll come in there and play the idea was to rest him for this week's bedlam game against Oklahoma but yeah, there's been tons and tons of quarterback intrigue and mystery and Basically the college coaches don't want to show their hand They want the opposing team to prepare for both quarterbacks Whether that works or not if you want to run the numbers on that and give back to me I doubt it really makes a big impact, but the college coaches feel like it does I mean the quarterback is certainly one player that's gonna move the market Jim and I were talking about whether, you know, LSU going from three to three and a half was the result of Announcing the Jefferson injury. It seems like not because I think it closed at three and a half So there was no extra bump. Well close at six. Oh, okay I think that was probably after Brett's tweet to be fully honest. I think it got to six eventually Yeah, it moved and also that was a weird game because LSU was in this as you guys know They were in the flattest spot, you know known to mankind. So that's probably why it didn't move more But yeah, it did move there at the end. Yeah, Jefferson. I think like warmed up I think Colin was tweeting about I thought I saw a tweet from him on saturday Yeah, and that's the that's the other thing I've noticed This happened with Michael Pratt quarterback of Tulane that happened with KJ Jefferson Now when you have quarterbacks that are injured you see them come out and take first team reps in pregame Yeah, and then they go back into the locker room and come out and they weren't street clothes You know, I mean you can't install a game plan in 90 minutes. So like yeah, I get it I get it but it seems a little bit on the paranoid side of things Now that could be one thing, you know that you notice is people putting stock into what coaches say in press conferences But are there other things you observe when you're consuming betting content you're talking with bettors Are you think are there things that you think we as bettors either Over or under value when we're trying to bet these games based on what you've seen and based on your knowledge of the sport I mean, obviously it's a case by case basis I think Maybe a lot of people that are into analytics. I know Colin is real big numbers guys I think Sometimes they don't take into consideration The motivational aspects especially at the college level um The nfl I think is a whole different animal, but for the college level it's just it's impossible to have Great games back to back weeks. Um, it just is it's you don't see that for 18 to 22 year olds And everybody can say all the right things You know, we're not looking past this game yada yada yada, but I think that's the biggest thing is is to look at some of these perceived flat spots and see if you know If the team looks like they can take advantage of it Um, that's what I would look at. I mean, I tend to look at that more than Uh than a numbers guy. I'm not a numbers guy. I'm not going to pretend I am one But um, you know, basically just kind of more Motivational also, you know having done this for a while. I know which coaches don't like other coaches So if there's a scenario where this game could get out of hand, is this guy potentially gonna Run it up or the flip side Do is there a great deal of respect between these guys? Will they this guy not run it up on him? So that kind of stuff helps You know when kind of when you're shaping, you know, what's your how you actually view the uh the game Let's uh, let's get back I like the motivation that because I had kind of talked myself into lsu having enough motivation Obviously coming off a huge emotional win over arch rival and evil empire alabama the week before but They still had an sec west title to play for so that was kind of like how are you gonna fall flat on your face now? Right, like you know, your division is tough. You have a chance to win it I thought the motivation was there. Was your take different? Yeah, I love dark and saw I did I did I love dark and saw um and again Here's another I don't again if you want to run the numbers I'd love to see what the the number is for teams After they tear down the goalpost You can say you can say they're playing for the sec west and they are Um, perfect example is kansas, you know, look at kansas and what they've done this year incredible job by lance leipold They get to six wins They get bold eligibility for the first time they rush the field they tear down the goalpost It looks like there's they've won another national title in basketball And then what happens they go play at texas tech texas tech beats them, you know that games played earlier in the year Um, probably goes down to the wire texas tech went when pretty handedly Uh, I get a you know the the pace of the game turnovers different things But that's kind of the things I look at like that, you know, kansas hasn't been bold eligible in 15 16 years whatever the number is, you know, they've just won this game. They're gonna celebrate. They're gonna celebrate It's hard to get that same emotion and everything going into that next game now. It's obviously not a hundred percent Um, but it's just something to you know, kind of keep your eye on when you're when you're breaking down these games each week Got a couple of homework assignments read. I like this. This is good. Yeah. No, I like it too Uh, just just real is there an example of coaches that either have mutual respect or a pair of coaches that perhaps don't have mutual respect that uh that we can Maybe put it into our handicapping maybe just one example Uh, it would be for the future seasons. I mean, there's no obviously, you know, no surprise. Um, You know jimbo and lane kiffin Um, you know, they're calling each other a clown or joker, you know, depending on what week it is Um, I think a misnomer out there with kiffin and saven is I think people Feel that there's this disrespect between them that that saven doesn't like kiffin. That's that's it's totally the opposite There's a great deal of respect there between those two kiffin You know, he likes to do his thing on twitter and and have fun like that, but he respects Saving more than anything. So, you know future seasons who knows where kiffin, you know, we'll be coaching in the future Ole miss or somewhere else. Um, but I don't think kiffin would Would purposely run it up on saven if it was jimbo fisher He would run it up and then kick an onside kick and try to score again This one is not coach related, but I know that pappas jerald has a decapitated monkey in his office That stems from his playing days when they beat iowa. He does not like iowa's fans Stepping from like words they said to his kids That's one that's legitimate if they had the chance to run it up if they were good enough to run it up on iowa They would that's not going to happen anytime soon. But like I think that that aspect to it is uh Definitely exists. So if you know, there's a decapitated to like stuffed animal in the office Run the run the numbers on that one too. Ed. We'll we'll assign you that. All right. There we go Love it. Let's dive into some games here for week number 12 and talk about TCU at Baylor TCU two and a half point favorite here. A total is 57 and a half and brett TCU keeps getting tested. They keep on passing those tests. Can they do it again here on the road against another? Very good team As I said, I'm an oakland mistake. I'm a big 12 guy I went to big 12 to get into the playoff the only way that happens is if tcu runs the table 13 and 0 I just I just feel at this point. They're you know, we've talked about Motivation emotion. How do you get back? I just feel I don't see how they have anything left in the tank and maybe we've been saying that for a couple weeks now But this is their ninth consecutive game You know, they've won at kansas in an incredible atmosphere They they beat oakland stayed in a couple of over times They've they've won six straight games by 10 points or less And now they just beat the biggest baddest bully on the block in texas And don't tell me that didn't have added motivation when garret former tcu coach gary paterson Was a special assistant or analyst whatever you want to call it With the longhorns Now you have to go at baler baler's coming off a loss everyone. Oh baler's not any good They're only playing their sixth game of the year six consecutive game So I don't think they're going to be as beat up. It's their final home game I I would take the bears and the points. I just think it's a better spot for them And at some point, you know, sonny dykes has done an incredible job incredible and by the way I was fortunate slash lucky enough to to have tcu is a long shot to win the big 12 So that would turn out great, but I just I just think it's a it's another tough spot Um at this point it sounds weird. I don't think tcu is playing to win I think they're playing not to lose and I think baler will come out with with nothing to lose And uh, you know pull off the upset Brett while we're talking about the college football playoff. Let's assume tcu goes 12 and 1 wins the big 12 And then michigan loses by seven at ohio state tennessee runs it out there 11 and 1 Who to who does who does and let's assume ohio state and in georgia take care of business Well, what what do you think happens with the the third and fourth spot? asking for a friend here in an arbor what happens with that The pack 12 is you see is usc 12 and 1 or did they lose again? Let's just assume they're gonna lose Okay, so pack pack 12's out of play off in that scenario. So it's georgia ohio state michigan winner That's one spot. That's two spot Uh, tennessee would be the third spot I don't think 12 and 1 big 12 champ uh, pcu gets in so then yeah, that would open it up for uh the michigan It missed If ohio state loses they I think they have a better shot because you just look at the non-conference schedule You know michigan has played They have one win against the top 25 team right now, right? Yeah, you know Uh So you think one win tennessee is ahead of one win michigan. Sorry one lost tennessee is ahead of one lost michigan Oh without a doubt without a doubt because right now they're so close they're they're They're two and one against top not top 25 teams against top 10 teams. Nobody else has played that schedule They're not going to go anywhere. They're going to score, you know half a hundred their final two games um And again, michigan a close loss against ohio state and then you look at again This is how the i've done the mock committees Where you go in and do the selection committee stuff and it kind of you look at it a lot differently I'm not saying it's the right way, but you look at things a lot differently. You look at the things they're looking at And it's almost you break it down in the simplest terms I think they would they would ding michigan for their non-conference schedule because they didn't play anybody That's a decision michigan may They chose to play Yukon, you know, they chose to play, you know, colorado state That's that was their choice um Yeah, I Man that would be tough I don't see i've never thought of the scenario if it's between 12 and 1 tc That means tcu loses to baler and then beat somebody in a rematch I they tend to weigh the conference championship so a lot more heavily So that I would probably give a slight lean to tcu. I think of the three Tennessee's fine, but I I agree with you. I think what would be between tcu and michigan fascinating What's uh, talk about that pack 12 and talk about usc a ucoa usc right now A one and a half point favorite total is 75 and a half that has actually gone up It was 74 and a half So that's pretty delightful usc on the outside looking in right now But still a shot to get to that college football playoff ucla looking for a bounce back here Who you got coming out on top usc at ucla? Yeah, well somebody somebody on this call I don't want to say their name, but their initials were brett mcmurphy was dumb enough To project ucla into the college football playoff two weeks ago So of course what happens they they lose to arizona. I still I still love ucla this week Um, you know you guys have seen it usc's defense uh, I would call it a matador defense, but I want to You know immediately apologize to any matadors out there They can't stop anybody and You know, you're not supposed to you know, I talked about don't listen to the coaches Yeah, I think you can listen to the players and Dtr came out monday You know don't I guess he didn't read the the rule book where it says don't trash talk He's saying we want to score. We're gonna hang 60 on usc again. That's what I want to do in the roast point I just think ucla's offense is so good right now. And yeah, I know they lost to arizona Um, that I think they'll they'll handle usc. I don't see any stops in this game I yeah the The total is crazy mid 70. I think it opened 80 81 or 82 and it's dropped down I I don't see any punts So you just have to wonder on these fourth downs are they gonna convert and score or they gonna not make it And then you've got the link of the field to come back Um, but I like ucla in this game. I just think they're better overall And I think uh, if I am correct then the pack 12 will officially be out of the running for the college football playoff Yeah, bro. I mean, I actually have ucla is a slight favorite in this game Any thoughts on the total if you don't think there's gonna be any punts or stops I I know it's funny. I took I took over in usc arizona and got there. I had over in UCLA arizona and didn't did not get there So Man when the totals are this high like you cannot you literally have to score every possession Right. Like if if there's a turnover deep in a territory if there's a Miss fourth down conversion, you know, um Man, I think though the emotions and everything nobody's gonna play slow if they're, you know They're both to the quicker pace teams in the country I would If you made me pick a side I would absolutely take the over because who wants to root in under In usc ucla when you know, there's no defense gonna be played Right and you also have a probably tight game that could end up in overtime, which Absolutely Certainly doesn't hurt But yeah, I agree with you. I think I think ucla is the better team than usc until they lost to organ Excuse me arizona and on my ap top 25 ballot I had ucla ranked above usc probably for the last three or four weeks until the lost to arizona Awesome. Yeah, we got another fun one. Uh, utah at organ Oregon is a three-point favorite got a total of 61 point uh five Man organ. I don't I don't even I don't even know what to say about like that game And how they lost that to washington. You knew I kind of thought it was a possibility But then they actually went out and executed Like I mentioned before bonix gets hurt and organ runs the ball for three times Uh with a lack of a first down. So, uh, I presume next is playing and what what do you see in this game? I guess a good utah team Yeah, I mean, I I really like utah They were my when when that they were my choice to win the pack 12 before the season I guess they're still alive for that Um, but I actually like organ in this spot as long as nix is is a hundred percent And I don't know Ed you guys could maybe tell me if if organ beats washington And what's what's the line in this game? Is it? five six four five six Yeah, maybe Yeah, I'm guessing it's more than a field goal. So I don't think Washington beat didn't beat organ organ beat itself some very aggressive, um Play calling by dan landing backfired You know if that games played a hundred times. I think organ wins more times than uh than it loses And I just think you know organ's still in a great spot To win this to get To and win a pack 12 championship that the only concern is You know, I talked earlier about motivation organ had their site set on the college football playoff Even with that loss to georgia. They were they were running Through everybody and knew if they won out they could get there now that the college football playoff is no longer a possibility Is this a big letdown for them? And I know you're gonna say how is this a letdown? You're playing for a chance to win the pack 12 championship. Well, I'm not 18 anymore. So I'm just Remembering how my 18 year old self would have thought of that. So I don't love it a lot But I I do like organ because I think the line's too low as long as organ's not flat after the the washington lost Brett what what happened with bow next like what what does your kind of take? I mean, obviously it wasn't very successful at auburn and then you I mean, he's just after the georgia game just absolutely lighting it up And and I know they had some pieces on that side of the ball But I didn't personally didn't see this coming. What what what is your take on it? Yeah, nobody did. I mean we do on our podcast for the action network We have a you know a bit where the home bow nicks and the road bow nicks and the bow nicks effect and Yeah, and I didn't I didn't see it either and a lot of people did and then sometimes it's just a change of scenery You get you get somewhere else. You hear you hear things differently Somebody may be telling you the same thing, but you hear it differently. It and everything just clicks. I mean You know look michael pennix was incredible at indiana, but my god what he's doing at washington Like what you know, right? Where was that? Is that because he's in an offense that suits him better? Is that the same thing with with bow? um You know, I think maybe there was just so much pressure on him Right in the sec that to get away and get up to oregon. Maybe it just it freed him up and he's able to You know, no, I think that contrast is is the perfect one because i'm not surprised at all that pennix is thriving at washington Oh, he's looks incredible. Yeah, yeah, I like the first time he threw a ball for indiana. I was like This guy this guy can ball straight ball and obviously he wasn't successful in all his seasons at indiana, but like That potential was there and and nix just struggled right and and um, yeah, I mean it's nice to see him thrive and It's just yeah I just want to get your opinion on that because you know if we can put our crystal ball for next season And figure out who the next bow nix is going to be but that obviously helps Yeah, I mean He's obviously just so comfortable in that offense and I think probably part of it, you know, indiana obviously isn't Their offensive philosophy is never going to be confused with with what washington does And obviously the the pack 12 plays more up tempo more offensive geared type games And that probably played in into it too. But yeah, he's He is uh, he's just been incredible in a in a year with a lot of great quarterbacks pennix is probably You know, unfortunately getting overlooked by by a few other guys Yeah, bow nix went from being fun to watch for one reason to being fun to watch for a very different reason this year All right, brad any of the bets you're seeing in week 12 that you really like for this week I was trying to think if there's any, um Any motivational spots, I think there's a a small one. I don't really love it love it, but uh, navy's catching double figures at ucf obviously navy and the Um academies are always dangerous getting double digit points And it's not necessarily a play on navy because they're coming off Notre Dame. So well, they're going to be flat Well, they lost they've lost a lot this year It's more play against ucf ucf just went to new orleans beat tulane Which was the quasi american conference championship or at least locking up a bid in the championship game Now they come home and play a navy team with seven or eight losses and next week They've got rival usf, which maybe it doesn't matter this year because usf has been horrid Um, but I just I think navy will keep this close Um, ucf has some injury problems at quarterback. Do they do they play conservatively? And just think okay We need to win two games and then get to the american championship game win that we're in the we're in the cotton bowl um And look We talk about, you know teams that don't like teams or coaches that don't like coaches Other than army, there's not a team out there that's going to try to run it up on service academy So I would I would uh, I would take navy plus, uh, if you're getting more than two touchdowns against uh against ucf Yeah, that one is 16 and a half right now at faddle sportsbook, uh navy plus 16 and a half on that one, uh That's definitely a spot where you don't want to Can't disrespect the troops too much. That is for sure. All right. That is brett mc murphy checking out on twitter at brett underscore mc murphy Find his work over at the action network. He talked about the podcast over there Uh linked the action network is in the show notes over on number fire dot com brett We appreciate the time it was great to have you on and good luck to you in week 12 and also next week, uh, too You got it guys go bruins All right and ed what's going on for you this week at the power rake A lot of football and a lot of football, uh, a lot of one cup stuff coming in the newsletter A lot of nfl and college football stuff As usual during the heart of football season. Check it all out at the power rank dot com And I am on twitter at jim sonnis. You can find my work over at number fire dot com Want to thank you all for tuning in back once again tomorrow to break down nfl week number 11 This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network