 Okay traders, welcome to this week's weekly live market and trading last session with me, Patrick Munnily. I just want to do a quick audio test if you can hear me loud and clear a why in the chat box and if you can see the tick-nail welcome screen also why so I know. Before we do jump into today's discussion as always we want to adhere to the risk disclaimer and most importantly for today's chat the views expressed by me and the opinions today are solely mine they are not representative of or indicative of those held by Ticknail UK or Ticknail Europe Limited. Also as we get into the charts today I'm going to walk through a bunch of charts that I where I see potential opportunities developing and give you my overview on those. If you have any questions if you could note those down and hold them till the end I'll open up Q&A section if there's a chart you want me to take a look at that I haven't covered through my deck then feel free to put that in or I can unmute your mic if you have any other type of question. So for those who are not familiar with the first time a brief introduction to myself my name is Patrick Munley after I graduated from university I joined a city plc consulting firm and after a couple of years learning the roads I left with some colleagues and went on to co-found and successfully exit a consulting starter this was post a merger in late 2004 so I then moved on to explore my passion for markets some capital to play with and some time in my hands I started day trading or more appropriately day gambling the S&P 500 and after some early beginners luck I racked up some solid gains however as is often the case I begin as luck went out and as the market phase changed I began to average down into what were essentially significant losing positions giving back all the gains and ultimately experiencing a serious six-figure hit to my personal financial capital. To say this was gut wrenching it's every experience it's an understatement I had to really stand back from the markets and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from trading markets so I decided to get serious about trading and sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for a period of 18 months to two years I up to not just my technical game researching and developing a strategy that suits my personality extensively back and forward testing the strategy and developing a rigorous risk management approach to underpin it but more importantly during the period of mentorship I significantly developed my mental game and probably the most important watershed shift I made was moving from being a goal orientated individual who was focused on financial gains to being a purely process orientated individual. So what does that actually mean? Well it means I had to stop focusing what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades but once you become process orientated and have a professional trading mindset and understand the true nature of trading being a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities you lose the emotional investments and that hellish emotional rollercoaster of living and dying by the outcome of individual trades so I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even the string of trades. My focus is on the next 100 trades because I know if I focus on excellence in execution my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi strategy approach has delivered positive annual returns since 2008 since 2013 I've also been managing investor capital through a managed account service delivering annual positive returns you can see the trading data for that service on the screen at the moment. I'm actually currently responsible for managing a multi million dollar portfolio. Since 2010 I've personally mentored over 100 private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to reap consistent returns from the markets. I've also consulted to brokers and training education brands contributing written content webinars and live presentation content on a range of topics for market analysis to trading strategy development and execution. In addition to my fund management and private mentoring I'm also a resident market expert at Tickmill providing daily market analysis and trade analysis. You can actually register through their blog and you can get these updates sent to your inbox on a daily basis. My other passion project is as head of trading and trader education for a leading trading education brand called FXcareerswap.com. We offer development and funding to retail trading talents at FXcareerswap. We don't just develop retail traders market and trading strategy knowledge we work on mindset development through our structural program that culminates in managing the firm's capital at zero personal financial risk on a profit share basis and for those that are interested you can see on the screen a number for the desk in London or if you would like to email the guys and request any information they'll be sure to get back to you with that information. So that gives you a flavor of where I'm coming from. Now what I want to do is jump into the charts got a bunch to go through today so let's let's get going. So we're going to start here with the S&P 500. I was talking in previous sessions about watching this 3930 area. We saw a decent reaction from that 3930 got down to the 3800 level. What I'm looking for now is another new high in terms of these S&Ps and we'll just draw in where I see the next opportunity. So consolidating at the moment one of two ways I think we go we either head straight up into this resistance zone now where we have this projected ascending trend line resistance top side of maybe an ending diagonal and we also have the monthly R3 and weekly R3 coming in at 4030. So if we head from this current low at 3816 if we squeeze higher here I'll be watching the bearish reversal patterns as we test into this 4030 area looking for another pullback certainly back down into ascending trend line support and maybe even a little bit deeper this time for a test back down into the 3700 area. The alternative scenario is that we hold current levels and so we hold the current low here we hold the current high potential double top and we pull back down into this 3800 gain for another test this major trend line support. If that's the route of the price then what I'll be watching for a bullish reversal patterns in this area to set long positions targeting this 4030 area. So the two key areas really of interested me at the moment are the 4035 area and the support back down at 3790. So I'll be watching either one of those areas as potential opportunities to trade from the long or the short side. Now let's have a quick look at the Dow. So the Dow is actually trading up into its trend line we're seeing a little bit of a pause here at the moment this morning in terms of price. We have this ascending trend line resistance at the 32100 level. We have the weekly and monthly R3s just above 32184 and 32324. So bearish reversal patterns in this area looking for short positions to target and move down into to retest 30750 of support and if we take out that area then what I'll be looking for is a move into the trend line support back down to 30300 before again watching for bullish reversal patterns as an opportunity to set long positions for the next leg to the upside. So going two key areas or our three key areas to be watching in terms of the Dow. The DAX is still consolidating highs. What I think we'll see now with the DAX at this stage is a move into this ascending trend line support. So if we hold the current support what I anticipate we see is a move up into here 14435 and then we get the pullback into the 13250 area. The Nikkei. So we didn't get just fell short of that resistance area I was watching previously. We're holding here now at the 29600 area as we do there's a potential for another leg here ultimately I'm looking for a test of this ascending trend line resistance 31433 and then I think we see a pullback certainly to get a test of the ascending trend line support the internal ascending trend line support 29200 and below there we're looking at the primary ascending trend line support down to 27181. Dollar index took out the support at the trend line area that I talked about previously now looking for a retest of the lows here 8920. From there I'd expect we get some type of bounce profit taking bounce potential and then I think we retest this ascending trend line support broken support to act as resistance before getting that next leg down to this initial target of the 8750 level on the downside which is that weekly ABC pattern that I've talked about in previous sessions. So that's the broader dollar index the the equal weighted dollar index with the Aussie, Yen, Sterling and the Euro look for a move down now to get a test of 11495 before we might see some type of bounce back into this prior support to act as resistance before we head lower here I think we're heading down to 11000 sorry 11390 is the next downside objective which is the median line of the channel that we're currently trading in. The yields obviously been exploding higher here and what I'm watching for now is a test that I think there's 150 on an initial test simply because of the psychological level there will probably provide or potentially provide a profit taking move which could see the yields then trade back down to test this ascending trend line support at the 130 level before moving up to test the projected channel resistance up towards 160 in terms of in terms of the US 10 year yield gold not doing much of anything at the moment still trapped within this this area around the 118. As we hold below this 118 yearly pivots then I think we can get the move down that I'm looking for whereby we test the descending trend line support down to 1690 what I'd be watching for is bullish reversal patterns there for long positions but ultimately I'm looking for a test of 1653 which is the equality objective versus this swing high so just draw this in so you can see exactly what it is talking about so this so I think once we get into that area then we can see a more pronounced correction in terms of gold so two key areas that I'm paying attention to are the sending trend line support 17 just at 1700 but ultimately I'm looking for 1653 before we can see a more meaningful correction in terms of gold crude oil so crude we're trading back into the top side of the channel where I expect we find resistance here at the $64 a barrel area the area that is of real interest to me is any pullback into this internal ascending trend line support currently coming in around $58.60 I think that's the area where I'll be watching for bullish reversal patterns set long positions ultimately looking for a test now of the projected primary ascending trend line resistance that comes in just above $70 and there then I think we could see a more meaningful correction in terms of crude oil before we mark look for the next leg higher but certainly bullish crude oil at the moments but looking for a pullback to get in on the long side and watching this internal ascending trend line support as the area of interest copper looking for copper to test a 100 projection at the prior channel that it was trading in here which would have it up at $4.50 and we've got the weekly r3 coming at $4.47 so watch for any move back up into this area to see for a pullback whereby then what I think we'll do is we'll use this prior ascending trend line resistance as support for the next leg higher in terms of copper so that currently comes in just over the $4 mark and I think that will be an opportunity on the long side in terms of copper Bitcoin we've got the pullback um as anticipated from the ascending trend line resistance at the $58,000 level and now whilst we hope whilst we held the ascending trend line support here on a closing basis we pierced the intraday but on a closing basis I think we're set for another leg higher and I think we'll see some volatility some two-way volatility as we ultimately look for a test now of this $63,000 level and then from there I think we could see a more meaningful correction but certainly bullish above $42,000 now with the target at the moment for $62,000 is the view on Bitcoin at the moment. It's interesting as well now that this broadening pattern would play very well here if it's being the top side of the broadening pattern so it could be that once we get down into this area then we have another leg to the upside right so Dolly one again we traded into that weekly trend line support area at the $640 level we've held it again we haven't really had a significant bounce although we have had a couple of closes outside of the major or the primary descending trend line resistance so whilst we hold here I'd be looking for a test of the 650 level and through there then we could we could look for some further consolidation as we try and build out here what would be a inverse head and shoulders scenario before trying to make a more sustained recovery in terms of the Dolly One so you want to keep an eye on the Dolly One in terms of it as a as an Aussie proxy really more than more than you're likely to be trading it itself but this is what I anticipate now some consolidation and a potential for an inverse head and shoulders scenario before moving higher. Dolly Yen has traded nicely within this trend channel that we've been tracking so what I've been looking for now is to move up into the top side 10675 is the level I'd be watching bearish reversal patterns there I think we'll get another pull back back into the 10530s as we try and grind higher to ultimately test this major descending trend line resistance towards 109. SWISSI has come up into its major trend line resistance and we're seeing a bit of supply here we've also got the weekly projected range resistance at the 9070 level so what I'll be looking for now would be a close today back through yesterday's low so 9030 level with an opportunity to play a short down to the 89 18 area and then from there we'll see if buyers step in strongly we could be up testing the weekly sorry the yearly pivot point 9180 but if we hold the trend line again then it could be that we roll over and we see a test back into the the 8870 area but certainly watching the price action today as we test this major trend line looking for a rejection as an opportunity to do something on the short side of the SWISSI dollar CAD is traded into its uh descending or in the internal descending trend line support which could act as a wedge now for the dollar CAD so we want to see this hold on a closing basis so close back above 124.75 there may be a bullish reversal to see a squeeze here in terms of the dollar CAD using this this wedge scenario however if we take out this on a closing basis I think we'll trade the 123 is the is the next target on the downside for the dollar CAD Singapore dollar looking to try and put in a double bottom here we've got some some divergence so want to see a close back through yesterday's high at 132 33 and then maybe we could we'd have an opportunity here to play a double bottom with an initial 133 89 target in terms of the simple dollar euro is trading up into that 122 30 resistance we've got weekly range resistance 122 39 monthly range resistance 122 46 and we have an equality objective versus this swing loam here at 122 30 and we're seeing a bit of a pause here we get flipped to the intraday charts let's see so if we uh if we've got a bearish reversal pattern a bearish reversal set up here on the four hour back through 129 129 90s on a closing basis and that could set up potentially a bit more consolidation in terms of the euro as uh as we work our way back to uh to test support again back down to 120 50 before we get this run up into the 123 50s to pay attention to how we trade this is some decent confident resistance in play here in terms of the the euro and really we'll only get initially oh sorry we'll only get excited about further upside imminently on a close through this 122 50 area so that's certainly this this area we're trading at the moment is is important for the euro and could set up another leg another leg to test a bit lower euro yen i'm looking now for the euro yen to move up into 130 30 watch for bearish reversal patterns here i think we get we get an opportunity to do something on the short side and maybe get a retest of the prior highs here at 127 30 for looking for the next leg higher in terms of the euro yen to the level to watch there is 130 30 euro swiss has had a bit of a breakout here and uh and now what i'd be watching for is a test of 111 50 which is the projected ascending trend line resistance very interesting how price responds there we could uh we could then be getting a bit of a pullback in terms of the euro swiss back into the um prior resistance to active support so we'll be looking at something like this for uh for attempting another leg higher in terms of the euro swiss similar really in scope and scale to what we saw develop here from the loans not be surprised to see that type of move in terms of the euro swiss so watch 111 50 euro sterling has made the target area that i've been watching on the weekly chart so what i'm looking for now is a break of this internal channel here to confirm this 86 area is going to act as support for the euro sterling and we can see a recovery certainly back up into 88 70 and then maybe see how we trade from there but this was the area that i highlighted last week and you can see that a decent bounce from there euro was the down into the projected descending trend line support and it looks like we're trying to carve out a reversal here so i'd be looking for a close back through the 153 70 level set long positions certainly looking for a move up into 155 90 is the area i'd be looking at on the as a target for a long setup sterling dollar into the mid the median point of the of the midpoints area of the channel that it's trading in since the lows back in march last year and a little bit of supply coming in here but certainly now remain bullish above 140 initially would be the area where you'd expect buyers to step back in and ultimately what we'd be driving for would be a test now of this ascending trend line resistance so this covers up trading 147s in terms of sterling now if we don't find support of the 140 area the next level of interest is going to be back at 137 50 which was the prior resistance area but even then that's still an opportunity to to get in on the long side bullish reversal patterns and ultimately we're targeting now a test of this this ascending trend line resistance for sterling sterling yen looking for a test of 151 and i think again from there with sterling yen if we drive up into there i think we can see a pullback certainly to test 147 the support before looking for the next leg higher let's keep an eye on how we trade here 151 70 area it's uh i think it'll be an opportunity to play a pullback in terms of sterling yen sterling swiss into its channel resistance here but i'm watching to see if we can get a bearish reversal pattern here as an opportunity to do something on the short side in terms of sterling swiss i want to be looking for would be a test of this ascending trend line as support and then maybe an attempt to break out to the upside in terms of sterling swiss you really want to see a close certainly back through yesterday's low or back through the the near-term b-wap on 27 to encourage the idea that we're going to see we're going to see a correction here in sterling swiss sterling cad into its range resistance here nice bearish reversal pattern let's bring in this trend line here as whilst we hold that trend line support we can still see a squeeze higher here in terms of sterling cad sterling kiwi i'm looking for a move back into the ascending trend line support third test so looking for 188.50 as an opportunity to do something on the long side ultimately looking for a move up into the yearly pivot there at 197.50 ozzy treading into the monthly r3 weekly range resistance so i think we're going to pull back here in the ozzy the pullback should be shallow and i'm looking for a move into the 78 level i'm watching there for bullish reversal patterns as we get back into the trend line support and set long positions now what i'm looking for is a test of this a third test of this sending trend line resistance and a potential leading diagonal to to end this move or as an interim pullback level from this from this just above the 82 level so the area of interest for me will be long positions from 78 and short positions from 82 ozzy yen nothing for me to do in that one at the moment ozzy cad similarly nothing there the ozzy kiwi we did get eventually got a rejection from this trend line but what i've been watching for now we want to see a breach of the 10680 targeting 105.70 but so this 105.70 looks like the opportunity to do something on the long side retesting the yearly pivot from above watching for bullish reversal patterns here set long positions then targeting up to 109.70 kiwi has broken out and now this is the area of interest for me now with the kiwi just above 75 i think from there we should see some short-term exhaust in the kiwi and i've been looking for a move back to test the 73 level as support and then maybe we build for the next leg of upside what the ultimate target now for the kiwi is going to be this ascending trend line so we're targeting 79 so watch for pullbacks from the 75 uh 75 10 area to use the 73 level of support ultimately then looking for a 79 test kiwi yen just trading into the weekly r3 here no signal is such at the moment but again similarly with the the kiwi i'm looking for a test now these this ascending trend line resistance once we see a pullback and find some support then immediately have a play there kiwi cad just come up into the monthly range resistance potential for a bit of a bit of corrective action here with kiwi cad back down in here before we try and build for the next leg of upside similar story looking for these ascending trend line resistances to be targeted as we find support in these kiwi pairs so it's yen this was one of the trades in the week last week for me got short against this candle here and picked up 140 pips on the downside and we've seen a bullish reversal here um what i've been looking for is whilst we hold this this uh support now at the 116 level looking for uh 119 on the upside as the next opportunity something on the short side in terms of the kiwi swiss cad yen just testing uh projected ascending trend line resistance got the weekly r3 above so i'll be watching for bearish reversal patterns here if we get them and there's an opportunity i think to trade back down into the ascending trend line support at the 82 level before we see another leg to the upside so there's a basically the charts that i'm watching at the moment um there are a bunch of pairs there that you can see that are just sitting out or very close to some pivotal levels as always what i'm watching for is uh from bearish and bullish reversal patterns on the four hour or the daily time frame to to play those levels um so yeah that that pretty much brings me up to speed guys are there any questions you can type an n in the chat box if uh if you don't have a question just so that i know that uh we're all on the same page and uh i can wrap this session up the the 10 seconds here and um i'm gonna close this one out okay well look thank you all very much for your time and i hope this helps and we'll reconvene at the same time next week thanks very much