 Hello, my name is Rachel Bessel. I'm a Senior Researcher and CFA's Bushfire Research and Development Team. I'm here today to talk you through the season outlook for December 2019. I have three key messages that I'd like to communicate to you today. Firstly, as we head into summer, Victoria's experiencing very dry landscape. The rainfall deficits we've had, particularly in the North and the East, mean that forest fuels are particularly dry and available to burn. Also, grasses have been rapidly drying in the landscape and are also online to burn. Secondly, we can expect plume-dominated fire behaviour in the landscape. This is because the very dry forest fuels have additional heat release and therefore buoyancy. Lastly, we need to consider the safety concerns of our firefighters and the community. Firefighters will be in the field for prolonged periods of time in risky environments under our pine ash kill trees and will have to spend significant time blacking out and mopping up. Just to recap the month of November, Victoria had its first Code Red Day since 2010, and on this day we had over 100 dry lightning ignitions in the landscape. Because of this, we've had a number of ongoing fires since this time and we've already burnt 40,000 hectares of Victoria this summer. Looking at their recent rainfall conditions, the three- and six-month-desire maps. What you can see here is that the North and East in Victoria have been very dry. This has contributed to the flammability of these forest fuels and these environments. This is currently being seen by the going fires currently burning in the landscape. Grasses have also been rapidly drying over the last few weeks. We can expect fast-running grass fires occurring when they're at dry and windy days. Also, recent research suggests that unharvested wheat crops have higher flame heights than the grass fire spread model suggests. So please take care when responding to crop fires. So both our forest and grasses are dry and are ready to burn for this summer. Looking at the outlook into the month of December, although the El Nino Southern Oscillation is neutral, large-scale climate drivers suggest that drier and warmer days are likely over the next month. This is due to the positive Indian Ocean Dipole. This is quite unusual as it typically does not occur positive in summer and it's also evident because the monsoon trough is sitting well north of the continent. What this suggests is that we're in somewhat unknown territory but we can expect warmer, drier conditions and potentially extended fire season because of this positive IOD. So in terms of operational and management considerations, as I mentioned, we can expect a dominance of plume-dominated fire behaviour in the landscape. These fires are of particular concern because they can be quite erratic and dangerous in nature and can produce extreme fire behaviour even under relatively low or benign fire danger ratings. We also need to consider the safety considerations of our firefighters in the field. Also, we need to consider the fact that particularly in the East, Gippsland, where there are current fires burning and will be burning for some time, that our communities will be exposed to smoke exposure for some period of time. If you'd like any more information on the Bureau's climate outlook, there's a short four minute video which is well worth watching. If you have any feedback, please let us know at the email address listed below. Have a safe and merry Christmas and have a safe fire season. Thanks very much.