 For those of you who are interested in this, okay What we're doing right now is we're gonna do a follow-up to a video that we put out About 10 days ago, okay, and the video is sort of the conversation came up of exponential functions and what we ended up doing was During a math stream, so what we ended up doing was basically graphing what we knew of the coronavirus as an exponential function, right and we loaded this video up on January 28th, 2000 2020 right and we called the exponential growth of the Wuhan coronavirus graphing graphing the rate of Viral infections, right and we were estimating we're assuming that the virus was going to be doubling every 30 hours and to a certain degree it was initially but now it seems to have tapered off a little bit, right? So we have enough data for basically a couple extra weeks 14 extra days of Things we can look at analyze. So that's what we're gonna do Right now sort of a follow-up on this and take a look at the graphs and just to see how things look, okay So let me bring out the table. I'm gonna kill the display in the background Okay The upcoming data currently is not reliable though worth noting it is worth noting and I will be mentioning the stuff Once we go through this, right? This is We're at the beginning stages of what's taking place, right? the data that you see here in the table is I Compiled it from a website from John Hopkins as providing the data and if you know after we take a look at this graph I'll link up the tables and the links will be available in the description of this video Let me for those of you watching live. Let me give you the link to The site that I'm using and they just released a couple hours ago. They just released some additional data Okay, and I didn't have enough time to load it up To this table and to the graphs, right? So we're looking at the data Available from this website. Okay from January 19 January 19 2020 to February 4th 2020 right a month and plus Actually, not even a month like how many days is that a couple of weeks or so right two or three weeks two and a half weeks Let's say so we're going to take a look at that data and we're going to graph every single one of these columns, right? the first one we're going to look at is the Rate of infections our how many people are Infected in mainland China and then outside of China and then we're going to take a look at the Percent growth per day in China because I think that's really important and the percent growth per day outside of China We're going to take a look at the death rate the death totals and the recovered totals And then we're going to look at the death ratio in the recovery ratio and all the data raw data is available here Right. I had to do a little bit of calculation in each columns And if you guys want we can go over the calculations. They're quite simple actually. It's just percentages and stuff, right? So not a big deal But what I'd like to do is take a look at the take a look at the data take a look at the graphs because That's really What's extremely important is for us to get a visual of what's going on, right? So let me take down the table and we'll come back to the table if anyone has any questions or whatnot Here's the first graph This is the Total confirmed cases. There's one case right now off the southwest coast of Africa Off at the Atlantic. Yeah, what if it gets into Africa and? Grows into into India right now. They say only three cases in India, but I'm guessing it's probably more if it gets into Africa I might grow much faster So we're going to keep this data in mind these visuals, right? So this is the total confirmed cases that we're getting from the centralized Chinese government that What we have right now, it's already spreading in India. Sorry spreading in India. I'm pretty sure it is too, right? So three is My guess is an underestimate, right? but we're going to go with the official numbers because No matter what if this is still exponential growth Within two weeks, it'll be obvious where we're at with this, right? Even within a week is going to be pretty obvious, right? We can take a look at you know estimate the rate of growth half, you know what the Doubling period is and stuff, but I didn't get a chance to do it Before the stream started. They said there's a concern at risk of infection of 5,000 plus people Suru and Surus from India. So there's some News coming out of there South America of the South America is the only unaffected continent safer and Antarctica Yeah, I hope it doesn't go into South America either We'll see right there are positive Things we'll look at in the data, right? This is the rate of infection in mainland China and as of February 4th confirmed is around 27,000 right based on the table that we have All right, if you look at the table down at the bottom the mainland confirmed cases was 27,400 approximately anyway, and that's January from January 19th of being 278 right so it's been spreading pretty fast. Okay So the table the graph here one thing that looks more positive is it's not doing The exponential kick up. It's turning into more of a linear. Hopefully it doesn't s right Exponentials when they grow up stuff like this sometimes it burns out and it doesn't s and then later on it disappears, right? So this is what we see This is the what the data looks like coming out of mainland China Okay, for the last how many days one 17 days, right two and a half weeks, right? So day one is January 19th and day 17th is February 4th 2020, okay Here is what the graph looks like for outside of China including Hong Kong So this looks more positive because it's looking a linear, but again, there isn't enough data for us to really Get a feel for what's going on Because in the beginning stages of this virus In China the graph also was sort of linear until we started getting more confirmed cases because it was a 14 day What do you call it where? There is no sign of infection, right? SARS that the tapering out You just described eventually completely leveled off eventually completely leveled off, which is what we're hoping for, right? However, it did so at a rate of infection death Then see corona is currently at yeah, and the SARS it wasn't Asys as systematic, right? So there's a 14-day incubation period where no one's showing any signs with SARS people start showing signs right away So there was more care being taken to a certain degree, right? And we're not 100% sure how this is being spread or whatnot The Middle East respiratory syndrome MERS also did the same if I recall correctly. I believe so I believe so so that's what we're hoping for for this, right? And this is positive We're graphing outside of China including Hong Kong and the graph looks like this right now confirmed cases now Again, early stages, right? So you really don't know what's going on. There is enough data available for us, right? but Not bad and considering the rate of infection in China to confirmed numbers aren't Doing this they're doing they're coming more towards a linear Hopefully this is a sign of what China's infection rate is going to look like right and then taper off So this is the graph for outside of China infection. Now another column that we ended up graphing Let me bring this up again. I Wanted to graph to see how much the infection was growing per day right and The next two graphs that we're going to take a look at are percent growth per day in China and percent growth per day Outside of China including Hong Kong Okay, so there's also some reports of possibly some people having recovered from coronavirus Can still spread it really like to survive But they are still carriers of the disease for a while after people who recovered and they send send home And they still infected family members or it could be the Incubation period the a systematic If they were with the family 14 days before right Maybe they Spread it then and then they got sick, but the recovery rate is pretty slow on this So if you include 14 days here at the last day they infected someone they have a 14-day period I'm assuming people are not recovering within 14 days, and we're going to take a look at the group Recovery graph as well and that looks more positive Right a Synthematic under the radar stuff under the radar stuff right so the next two graphs We're going to take a look at is percent growth per day in China and percent growth per day outside of China, okay? So let me take the table down again They have viral Particles in their bodies, but that does not mean they are contagious. Yeah and From what I understand this virus is mutating rapidly right so hopefully it mutates itself out of existence right Hi, noot How are you doing? It's over if this comes to New York City New York City. I don't know sleepy waves the biggest concern for me is India and Africa and South America, right and Bangladesh and areas where they can't contain it right Where it can't be quarantined where there is enough facilities or drugs to treat people So right now, let's look at the rate of growth per day, right percent growth per day in China This is what the graph looks like. Is there really no cure for we don't know this is brand new, right? Sorry, I actually don't know much about it sleepy waves We'll take a look at it. I have a couple of Videos lined up from World Health Organization to watch so you get a feel for what it is. I just assumed I thought it was a good idea to go through The data first. Okay, that way everyone has a visual of what it is. They're talking about Okay, there are reportedly things which can help fight recover from it But there's no definitive cure yet that I am aware of. Yeah I don't think there is yet and that's what the World Health Organization They put out a video today talking about it, right? So taking a look at this graph. This is percent growth per day in China Right as you can tell in any early stages of anything where you're collecting data The beginning stages, it's all over the place, right? So right now you can see at the beginning Week ten days. We're all over the place We're going percent growth goes from less than 20% to 70% to less than 20 40 something percent up to 120% so flip flip flip flip high frequency, right? Large range in the data and then it's narrowing down to a level So right now it seems to be narrowing down to a 20% growth per day right now, right? From what happened with SARS and MERS It's unlikely to develop a vaccine for any time soon and hopefully nature takes care of it, right? They managed to breed it in a lab here in Austin Which is the first major step to test cures which is a great start Which is a great start. Awesome Josie Thanks for the info. I was reading the Chinese government is trying to push traditional Ramities to treat it possibly dragon. Why not? It came from nature. So there might be a Natural cure for it, right? Hello spider-man. How are you doing? I love spider-man So this is the rate of growth per day in China, right? And if we take a look at the table Let me bring up the table again If we look at One two three four the fifth column, right? If you look towards the end We're seeing the rate of growth per day stabilizing around 20% between 15 to 20% I want I want to keep an eye on that just to see Hopefully it comes down, right? There are articles which say vaccination development will need a few months. Yeah It's for one or stand vaccination is supposed to take a long time unless someone already has a vaccine So this is the rate of growth per day in China And let's take a look at the graph for the rate of growth per day outside of China Which is this and again High frequency high Sorry High range just oscillating right big margin of error at the beginning and is stabilizing around 10% Right, which again is better than 80% at the peak, right? The good news I guess is that 80% of the fatalities are people over 60 and younger kids as well Right or people who are already immune compromise if they're already sick Well first they have to develop it which takes time then approve it The human trials which takes time then produce and distribute which takes time And if this thing is kicking into high gear I'm assuming the speed for go human trials The people that are sick will be the experiments I guess I'm not sure But if they're going to go through all the hoops in the appropriate time frame It would take a year or more, right? Or longer, longer, way longer if there's human trials I'm guessing I used to follow some pharma stocks so I know how long it takes to bring things to trial To first phase anyway and it's a long time How long time do we think like a year? From my understanding if it has to go through the hoops it's going to be longer If they fast track things possibly within a few months It all depends how fast things are growing The face masks are becoming a bit of a fashion statement Yeah there's people wearing in my area too It really develops just how bad it could get Depends on how bad it could get but expecting like 6 months to a year If it's really really bad they could expedite it in some cases for sure There's an article on the origins and family tree of the virus here DVD you would have to post this on our discord page No links in chat New version of coronas made by United States of America And they bio-attacked China and China kept faxing it Possibly there's lots of theories out there we don't know right now The only thing we're caring about right now is the data The official reports right and we're looking at the official reports Because we're at the beginning stages of things right and they're releasing them And people are seeing the effects and both inside of China And not outside of China so even if this data is Wrong or suppressed We'll find out what's going on in 10 days to 2 weeks anyway Which we might be doing a follow up video within a month To know what's going on because the data is going to tell us everything we need to know Almost anyway It was made by China to call it They already have cigarettes for that How are you doing So that's the rate of growth per day outside of China Here is what the graph looks like for the death toll so far This is total death toll Inside and outside of China outside there isn't that many So this doesn't look good The death toll within 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 days has gone from 200 plus people To 500 plus people that's doubling So the death toll so far is doubling every 6 days So we can take a look at the table again I'll show you what graph we're looking at And we're going to hear some banging noises and stuff Unfortunately our timing sucks on doing this But this is the death toll we're in column 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 If you look at the 7th column this is what we're looking at right now Within 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 days The death toll has more than doubled The good news is the recovery If you look at the table is at a steeper incline So it's gone from 187 To almost 10 times 6, 7 times More have recovered within that period Tell them to stop banging and making noises in the evening No it's ok sleepy waves and let people do Live their lives man, you know people are moving in and they're excited They're happy to be moving into a place and we're happy to have new people around So let them move in and do their thing You can have a little noise as Alan Watts would say Just think about it as walking in the forest and birds are chirping Or tree branches are falling It's all good How are they treating the virus anyway I think they're just possibly antibiotics What's the treatment for pneumonia? You give them oxygen, antibiotics Huge doses of vitamin C and vitamin D You give them maybe asthma inhaler stuff I don't know what the treatment for asthma is For the death toll growing Here's the graph for the recovery And the recovery looks good, so that's a huge positive This one is going exponential hardcore If the death toll is supposed to be 2%, which is the next graph we're going to look at So from the data official reports that we have The death rate percent is 2% So if 2% mortality rate Then it should be 98% recovery Or let's say 90% recovery to full health And 8% might have some long term Side effects So this graph looks good with the recovery rate And here's the death rate What we know for the last 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 And this is day 17 of February 4, 2020 So the death rate looks like it's stabilizing around 2% According to official Chinese Because there's only one death outside of China so far So most of the deaths out of the 500 Right now it's more 600 plus So let's say 500 to where we've taken the data 500 plus minus 1 has been in China So the death rate right now is around 2% And the recovery rate is growing So the recovery rate, because there was a 14-day Asystematic that people were And it takes a while for people to recover Or it's been really slow coming and it's starting to accelerate So we're seeing the exponential kick up as well in the recovery So that's a positive sign as well, the percent recovered So at the beginning we were less than 2% Now we're peaking above 4% I'm hoping that within a week we'll be well above 20-30-40% recovery rate So the way they treat it is antiviral and antibiotic Some assistive drugs and putting them on oxygen full time So it's oxygen full time, that's huge resources Right there, right? Huge resources If this thing spreads into countries that can't afford those resources Or they don't have the medical system established to build two temporary hospitals Within 10 days and whatnot And then kicking into gear, then the death rate is going to increase Without a doubt, right? How are you doing? Welcome to another live stream And again, this was our table This is the data we just took a look at So it should be flipped through all the graphs going backwards And then I'm going to show you guys The World Health Organization, I think we should watch the video There's questions we can have regarding the World Health Organization They didn't use breathing today on February 6, 2020 And there were questions asked, they sort of sidestepped the answers They shared some information which we can take a look at And discuss further But just to recap, this is the table we've got So this is the data we're about to take a look at The doctor who warned authorities in December died today Yeah, I have that linked actually, bookmark right now On an article that we might get to So there's things going on, we don't know There's a lot of theories flying around As far as I'm concerned, the best thing we can do is keep calm heads Be informed, be aware, wash hands Be clean in your living space and outside where you are And be aware, right? And we look at the data The data says it all, mathematics is where it's at That is information that you can grind your teeth in Get a hold of and analyze and take a look at So this is the table That we're about to look at the graphs for And then what we're going to do is Take a look at some links And the first thing we're going to do is Take a look at a short four and a half minute video That World Health Organization put out explaining what the coronavirus is And then we're going to take a look at a I think it's a half an hour news briefing I watched today That with World Health Organization Answering questions, right? We also make at least some minor preparations Make some minor preparations Go get yourself some supplies that you need at home Food, toilet paper, vitamin C, vitamin D, zinc Soap, whatever you need, right? Spread awareness for sure Coronavirus, mankas I'm not sure if you said that already, sorry Yeah, spread awareness The best thing we could do is look at the data And see what's going on Isn't this like SARS 2.0? I think it's more severe than SARS Plutorino I think it's more serious than SARS personally I wasn't very much concerned about SARS at the time I didn't spend the time to graph the data I'm spending the time to graph the data And share it with you guys I think it's important Plutorino I figured it out, it took me a little bit of time So let's take a look at the graphs in reverse order So we're going to look at the graph that is on this side The recovery ratio first And then we're going to make our way down to the infections in China I was living in Southeast Asia doing SARS And no one really cared Yeah, it wasn't a big deal This one is a big deal Chishol should be fine Because elderberry is near enough The best natural flu killer is it? I have some elderberry liqueur that I might start drinking a little bit Increase looks linear Does this mean infection rate is less than 1% I'm assuming normal flu is... No, infection rate is higher than flu Which means one person infects 1.3% No, I think the infection rate for coronavirus is between 2-3% As far as we know I didn't grab... Well, we don't know what the... Actually, sorry, the death rate is around 2% The R0 value, the rate of spreading is anywhere between 2-3% I think it's the R0 value that you're talking about, Frank So let's take a look at this stuff The first graph is the recovery ratio So as data is becoming available We're seeing that the recovery rate is increasing Which is fantastic And this is going into full-blown exponential mode So this thing, within a week it should be much, much higher We've gone from in the last 5 days or so We've gone from less than 2% all the way up to above 4% And we still don't know what has caused it We don't know what has caused it I think the WHO said the R0 is 99% Certainly in the range of 3.0 But probably higher, but probably higher Here is the death rate Which is starting to... And again, this is the beginning stages of what we know The data coming in, but it's around 2% so far And most of the deaths have occurred in China So this is the data coming out of China that we're doing the death rate for Since the virus is spreading outside of China We'll have a better idea of what the death rate is Once more data becomes available Hopefully not, hopefully it just dies down It's over This graph here is the recovery The total number of people that have recovered Which is fantastic, it's looking like it's growing fast It's gone from less than 200 to close to 1200 In a matter of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 days So within 5 days the recovery The number of people that have recovered has gone off 5 times Which is fantastic It is not perfect, 1.3 for normal for means people With the flu tend to infect 1.3 people The cost seems to be currently Wet market, bushmeat in China, supposed to be bats That's the current belief anyway Could probably be well changed in time I read something Some doctors in Southeast Asia might have found a cure Or a way to fight it We're going to get a lot of either facts or noise coming out And hopefully they have So the recovery rate is growing fast Unfortunately the people are recovering So the recovery rate is growing And the number of people recovering is growing Unfortunately the death The people dying is also increasing I know this is data focus But what's your take on experts saying the US is overreacting to the outbreak I don't think this is an overreaction I think when there's anything Any type of virus which is growing Initially at an exponential rate With an R0 value that is infecting more people With asymptomatic for 2 weeks That China has initially, last week They had quarantined 60 million people It's cause to concern Cause for concern We should be aware of what's going on And we should look at the data Do we have good estimates, guesses For what it could have been caused by I hear it's bad meat in third world countries But you know how people say ridiculous They say meat market bats Initially it was snakes and then bats We don't know Some theories are that it was engineered Some theories is a bio weapon Some theories was escaped from Some theories is drugged We don't know I'm very excited to see people washing their hands More I hope it's a culture that can stick around Yeah, for sure The way the Southeast Asia doctors Had found to treat it If I'm not mistaken Was ironically, oh I heard about that too I heard that's Neither here nor there HIB combative drugs Though these helped But didn't guarantee recovery Okay, if it's true then Great, because the stuff is available So what I wonder If the number of infected people increases linearly Then the infection rate must be less than one That's why there's doubt in the numbers That's why there's doubt in the numbers I could go for some Fried bat right about now I wouldn't want to touch Yeah, I heard the snake thing So this is the number of dead And it's increasing This graph Is the growth, percent growth per day Outside of China The number of infected So number of infected The numbers are growing around 10% Right now Outside of China Which if it continues to grow at 10% It's not good It's still growing You want to cut that back down Yeah, I work many retail jobs Movie theaters, video game stores, Costco It's absolutely insane how many people Do not wash their hands And how many people Wipe their hands on railings And just drag their hands on railings And different things, it's weird to me personally Sorry if I keep going off No, no, you're not Legendary Rob Boss, how are you doing Did you hear an in real life Twitch streamer About the corona? No, no I didn't hear about that Rob Boss That's unfortunate But There's dangers of it, right? So rate of growth outside of China Right, percent growth per day Is around 10% Outside of China And right now it's stabilizing Around 20% inside of China Right, or a little bit less than 20% So again, it's still growing But it's not as we see One day here, the rate per day Going up to 120% Which would be a lot, right? Which would be unfortunate And this is the Total confirmed cases Outside of China, right? Including Hong Kong And it looks linear Which is a good thing If it's linear, it will taper off sooner If it's growing exponentially Every doubling period It's going to kick things up a lot more Right, so This thing growing linearly Outside of China Is a good sign if we're graphing it And again, this is at the beginning stages Because it started off in China So China is about a month Start to the infection spreading So hopefully we don't see the rate Kicking up outside of China And this is the graph For total confirmed cases Inside of China And it's starting to Go towards a linear, not yet So we're still exponential growth And we'll know more Within a couple of weeks Or within a week And what we'll end up doing Is most likely doing another stream Where we're going to do an update to this table And do more graphs So I just wanted to share That data with you guys Just so you know where I'm coming from And you have a good visual Of what's happening So paranoia doesn't take over Hysteria doesn't take over people And also people don't dismiss What's happening, right Information is your friend Data is your friend Mathematics, one of the best tools We have at our disposal To get a better appreciation For what's going on in the world And anything like this The data comes in fast So it's a really good opportunity To look at user math abilities To look at data And start analyzing some of the stuff That's what I wanted to cover For this initial stage Now what we're going to do On the live stream For those of you watching On this video On another platform Once the live stream is over We're probably going to end the video now Thanks for watching For those of you in the live stream We're going to share some links We're going to watch some videos We're going to read some articles possibly And have a little bit more Discussion as to some of the theories Possible things that are taking place Okay So let me take this table down And let's bring up our Let me show you where I've gotten the data from Let me open up my display Let's kick this down