 Great, welcome to the last set of news. I get top stories in crypto, right now on a bite-sized pieces. So today, as the thumbnail title suggests, we're gonna take a look at three views of where the traditional and crypto markets can potentially go. And really it comes down to everything from a soft landing to an absolute plane crash. So we'll take a look at those three views and what they all mean. And we'll take a look at the good news and take a look at where the big money, some people might call that smart money, is investing. And lastly, we'll take a look at an article which talks about how, and these are the financials Celsius is broke in October. So we'll go over all those things and of course the very end we'll go over Q&A. So first things first, let's take a look at the market, see what's going on and are we at the actual top? So take a look today and I don't wanna spend much time on this, but we're down. 1.19 trillion, we're bouncing around, not a big deal. Nothing's really up except for Dogecoin is up 10% in 24 hours, 20% for the week. So congratulations to Dogecoin holders for whatever reason. So that's what's going on with the market. S&P 500 traditional market is actually uncorrelated. This is the second day we've been uncorrelated from the crypto markets. We're down, S&P is up, NASDAQ is up. So it's just interesting to see how we used to be locked step, but now we are not. And then of course as we take a look and the question always has to be asked is are we at the top? And there's two different indicators I'd like to take a look at. Actually there's three, I just can't show you one of them. First one is the PI Cycle Top Indicator as the 111-day moving average goes over the 300-day moving average. And as you can see, we are nowhere near the top as it starts to diverge and actually go even further down which could suggest a little bit more of a bumpy ride. And we take a look at the net unrealized profits and loss for the markets. And usually the green area is a good time to accumulate. We're not even in that area right now. We're actually above it and we're in no man's land. It's like to call it. It's where nothing's really gonna be big that's gonna happen. It's just some uncertainty and a lot of chop sideways in this area. And then of course, once we get into the yellows, oranges and reds, maybe that's a time to take a look at it. But right now I can clearly say with almost a hundred percent assurance we are not at the Cycle Top. So that's what's going on the markets. Let's take a look at these three views and see where things are going. I like to take a look at different people's views who are experts in the field because there's only so much that data that I can take a look for and through. So I've got three different people. The first one, this is Jeremy Siegel. He's a professor of finance at Wharton School of Business. Pretty smart guy. Second one, we're gonna take a look at, this is William Dudley for our president of the New York Federal Reserve. And then lastly, this is gonna be a good one. This is Harry Dent. And he's gonna give us just a quick snippet of where he thinks things are going. And again, we're going everything from good news to kind of bad news. So let's start with a good and go from there. So first of all, let me show the tabs. You can actually hear this. And listen to what this gentleman says. This is about a minute and a half or so. But it's pretty interesting where he thinks things are going as far as what the Fed's gonna do, the pivoting and traditional markets, which will eventually decrypt out. So let's take a listen. The former Fed official, Bill Dudley from the New York Fed, he was on yesterday saying that he thinks the equity market has it wrong, that the Fed is going to have to do a lot more tightening. You're gonna take the other side of that. It's a tricky thing to fight the Fed. It is, but yeah, I'm gonna take the other side of that. I think that we will have maybe a hundred basis points left. I mean, perhaps 50, 25, 25. I think you look at forward-looking sensitive prices, they are not going up. The only thing that's going up is gonna be wages in certain sectors. Take a look at the housing industry, which was a major, major inflationary force in the last two years. The NEHV index, which was reported just a few days ago, I just looked at it. It has had the biggest drop in six months in its history, only during the pandemic year, a month of March 2020 to April 2020, did we have a bigger drop. If you go on the ground with real estate brokers, they say prices are softened everywhere. And remember, housing is 40% of the core index. Now, will you see that in the official statistics? No, because of the way the government does official statistics, they put it in very lag. So you're gonna see housing prices continue to rise, rise, rise there. But on the ground, they're not. On the ground, the sensitive commodities, the real prices are not rising. And I think if the Fed takes a look at that, they will not have to go more aggressively. So I think the market has it right here. I think with the June is going to be a bottom. And I think the second half of the year is gonna be quite good. So basically. So there you go. And that's again, that is from Jeremy Siegel. He's a professor of finance at Wharton School of Business, pretty prestigious college, pretty smart guy. So there's one little snippet that we can take a look and go, well, that looks pretty good. I like to see where things are going. Maybe it is going to be a soft landing, as he says. And I can reaffirm what he talked about as far as the softening of prices as far as the housing market. I've talked to a couple of friends that are still in real estate. They say the same thing. Look, we don't have as much as demand and the price of each house is not as high as it used to be, but we still have the ability to sell these houses. We just drop the prices a little bit. And of course, there's other types of factors that we get people in door. One of those things is that they say, hey, we can help you with closing costs. The seller will help you with closing costs. And that kind of helps out people to alleviate some of those high costs because the rates are going up so high. So there's one part that we can take a look at and say, well, that looks pretty good. Maybe there's some truth in that. So there's the first part there. Now, let's take a look at another side to that coin. And this is William Dudley. He's a former president of the New York Fed Reserve. And he's going to talk about where he thinks things are going because he's been in that exact same position that Jerome Powell was in. And he's telling us that, hey, the market is reading this way, way wrong. So let me just mute myself for quick and take a listen. 4.4, even Charlie Evans, these are people you have worked with for many years, is talking about three in three years. Is that sort of the range where you think the Fed needs to go? Do you think it needs to go higher? Well, I think it depends on how financial markets react to the Federal Reserve's tightening. As Paul said, the economy runs on financial conditions, not just short-term interest rates. So if the markets are buoyant, then the Federal Reserve has to do more. I think 4% plus is the minimum that I'm expecting. I think the other thing that's important to recognize here is the Fed's not going to ease off anytime soon because they're not going to be able to do that. They're not going to ease off anytime soon because they need to be confident that they're actually getting inflation back down to 2%. The mistake of the 1970s was not that Chairman Burns didn't tighten monetary policy, he did tighten monetary policy. They actually generated a couple of recessions, but he didn't stay tight enough for long enough. And so inflation got embedded, inflation expectations rose, and then that's what required Paul Volcker to come in and really put the economy through the ringer. And Chair Powell doesn't want to do that. So they want to be highly confident that they've solved the problem of inflation before they rely on it. Bill, the Fed is not winning that argument. When you look at the rate outlook as priced in the futures market, guys, if you have that Fed rate outlook chart, I don't know if you got it done, but the end of next year, the market is pricing in rate cuts, which tells you that, and I started thinking about this, the Fed's message is not symmetric. It said, we're not even thinking about thinking about tightening, but it hasn't said, we're not thinking about thinking about loosening. So the Fed has been on the one hand very strong about easing policy, but not that strong about staying tight. And I also think, Bill, when the market has it wrong, it's sort of the Fed's fault. The Fed has to be responsible for that. What's your view on that? Well, I think the problem here is that the market doesn't believe Paul when he says he wants to get inflation back down to 2%. They think basically if inflation is 3%, middle of next year, and the economy is soft, the Fed will relent. I think that's the key question. I believe that Paul means what he says, but it's going to take time for the market to understand that. Bill, one of the challenges I'm sure... So that's just it. I think, again, that is Dudley, William Dudley, former president of the New York Federal Reserve. So, Harry knows the people that are in the office, he knows the people he works with, and he knows the history of what's going on. So when he says that, look, if you think that Jerome's going to take his foot off your neck and stop raising rates, it's not going to happen. So maybe a soft landing that would be what he's heard about is not what it's going to be. And to prove both of our points, there is... Let me show you. There is this little piece of data right here. When he talked about... When he talked about Burns, Fed Chair Burns, who was the Fed Chair before Volcker came in, and Volcker came in in 1979. He said that Burns... It wasn't that Burns didn't raise rates, he did, and there was a recession along the way. The problem was that he didn't do it enough of them to keep inflation down. This is 1974. This is the inflation rate of the United States. 11%. And of course, it went down. It worked pretty good. Okay, we're going to raise the little rates. 9%. 5%. Everything's good. So let's just take our foot off the brakes, or off the gas. Well, then in 1976, here it is in 77, here it is in 78. And then of course, as it starts to go up, they just lost faith, and they had to get Volcker in. And Volcker came in around 1979 when inflation rate was 11%. And that's what the government reports. Who knows what it really was? And then of course, he had to deal with it in 1980, at 13.5%. And that's when he started to raise rates exponentially to get us down here. And look at all the history books. They'll talk about Volcker as like, he's the one that, yeah, we had to go through some recessions, but he avoided another great depression by raising rates. So when people say that the Fed's going to pivot, and they're going to start to stop raising rates, I don't think that's what it is. And both of these gentlemen here Dudley and also Siegel, they both said the same thing. Oh, he's going to raise rates as time goes on. But the question is for how much and for how long. And I got to tell you, when I take a look at these, if you think I know this, and now you know this, I think Jerome Powell knows this. And I don't think he's going to stop anytime soon. The question is, is it going to be 50 basis points or say by basis points? Who knows? So that is the second opinion. And then if we just go forward, here's our third opinion. And I'm not going to play this clip. It's a great clip. It's 30 minutes. There's a lot of great nuggets in there. This is from Stansbury Research. Gamboan here is looking nice and enthused with Harry's topics. But just real quick, who's this guy? Who's Harry Dent? He studies economies. Instead of focusing on endless graphs that assume people behave rationally, which we know they don't, he looks at real people making real economic decisions for themselves. He's got an MBA from Harvard. He's joined a Bain and Company as a Fortune 100 business consultant. Now heads the independent research firm, HS Dent Publishing. And the things that he talks about is the same thing that I believe. And he says it right, I mean, the title says it all. And he talks about it over and over again. Avoid equities, avoid stocks, and avoid housing until 2024. And he just makes his points. And it's a great video. So what I did was I linked it in the description. You can check it out, watch the whole thing yourself. But I mean, 2024, I keep hearing this number, 2024, 2025, keep hearing these numbers all over and over again. I still think the four year cycles are in play. I think 2024 is a pretty good time, 2025. And that will lead me to my last point before I move on, which is this. I don't know where things are going. There's some really smart people really smart people who do this day in and day out, who teach it, who have one varying opinion. The other ones have something on the other side. That's why as smart as I think I am, and maybe you think you are, what I do is just the same stuff, and I continue to do the same thing. I don't know if we're at a top, if we're at a bottom, I continue to dollar-cost average. Because in two, three, five years, I think I'll be all right. Anyhow, let me just think about that in the comments section. So even though Dent gives us some bad news, also not speaking of Dudley, here's some good news. You got to take a look at where the big money's going and what's going on. And this is what's happening behind the scenes. This was a tweet from into the block. And I put this out. I thought it was just a pretty good segue from what we just talked about. Crypto's not dead. I think we all can attest to that. Even though I'm sure there's people that you know that probably think that you're an idiot for investing into crypto. Because like, ah, it's so low. What are you doing? That's dumb. You got to remember there's big money. Some people might call it smart money and they are investing heavily into crypto. And it's not just a little bit. You're looking at, like, Alphabet, which is Google. 1.5, that's billion. So 1.5 billion, 1,506 million, or whatever you want to say it. BlackRock over a billion and they're investing into, and I want you to notice these names that keep popping up. You're going to see Fireblocks a lot. You're going to see, let's see the other one. Tazos or Talos a lot. But Fireblocks and Talos. NY Dig, same type of thing. FTX and Circle, which is BlackRock's investing, of course, heavily in the circle in FTX. Morgan Stanley, Figment and NY Dig, which is giving access to banks and crypto. Samsung is doing all these different places. Goldman Sachs, Coimbatris, Elwood, Black Diamond, Prodigial. And one thing you might want to notice, again, BNYMEL, one of the oldest banks in the world, Fireblocks and Talos, PayPal, Talos, how you want to say it, Layer Zero. The things you might notice is that these aren't specific crypto projects. They're companies. And the reason is because it's very simple. Like, if you want to invest into, everybody uses this expression, so I'll use it myself. No one wants to invest into the very risky aspects of the gold rush, but picks and shovels, sure, why not? So these places, first of all, like Fireblocks, does everybody know what Fireblocks is? Do you know what that company does? If you don't, you're in luck because I'm going to show you. So this is Fireblocks' website. You can find it at fireblocks.com. It's all about institutional investing and what they do. But this video, just watch this video. Let me stop this to explain again what it actually is. Tab. Watch this video. Let me mute myself. To move and manage institutional digital assets securely, you need more than a wallet. Say hello to Fireblocks, the only platform that makes it easy to perform all your digital asset operations, withdraw and deposit funds 24-7 with a secure MPC-based wallet. Instantly connect any major trading venue, liquidity provider, lending desk or counterparty. Once you're connected, you can instantly settle 24-7, transfer over 400 supported tokens and connect to over 30 exchanges. In a few clicks, rebalance directly between exchanges or sub and trading accounts. Easily view your digital asset across volts on exchanges and in fiat accounts. Plus incoming and outgoing flows. See account level vault balances in asset view and deploy DeFi trading, lending and staking strategies right in the console. Build, run and... Alright, that's Fireblocks in a nutshell. So again, that is for institutional investing across all boards, across a lot of different companies' institutions. Like when we take a look at, again, what these big places are investing into, what is Alphabet investing into? Google, Fireblocks, Dapper Labs, Voltage, BlackRock, FTX, Circle, BNY, Mellon, Talos, Talos. Again, Fireblocks for BNY, Mellon. And Talos just so you know, it's the same thing. Except for here, it's for Prime Brokers, OTC desks, lenders, custodians and exchanges. And we take a look at partners themselves. This is pretty much everybody that you know or you've probably heard of. Not some lightweights, what they're doing. So why wouldn't these big, huge companies say, well, okay, I want to invest in a Dogecoin. They're not going to do that. But they know where things are going. So this to me, when I look at it, I go, well, if big money's moving that way and they don't really talk too much about it, maybe I'm on the right place at the right time. Anyhow, let me just think about that in the comment section. Let's finish up, unfortunately, with a little bad news. Celsius is broke. So this was from Simon Dixon. And if you're not following Simon Dixon, he's one of the gentlemen I follow just for great information. He's one of the original investors into Bitcoin and Coinbase and Gemini and much of the different little exchanges that you may have heard of. He's the one that's responsible or trying to get responsible for a type of plan to bail out essentially all the people that invested in Celsius like myself and probably you. And he states this. He goes, last week, many got very upset with me. As I said, Celsius Network would run out of money and solutions need to be act upon faster. I was told I don't understand Chapter 11. They have now confirmed they will run out of money by October. So this is what we got. Reading from left to right. So August, that's this month right here. Everything here is in millions. So you're looking at the total receipts. It says 20,000, 524 has had three zeros. 20 million, 524,000. That's the total receipts for August. Payroll, that's 5 million. All right. Hosting, jeez, hosting, 18 million. Other companies, 5.5 million. So total operating disbursements for just August is going to be 28 million. That's your money, just so you know. That's sitting in there they're using. Operating cash flow. A net cash flow, 36 liquidity schedule. Beginning cash balance, 129 million, not bad. Minus the cash flow. Now you're at 92. Restricted cash, minimum cash balance, liquidity. What they actually have in hand, 66 million through 91,000 in August. Take the whole thing again. It's September. Of course it's going to go down, right? Got to pay for the lawyers. Got to pay for the hosting. Got to pay for the payroll. Got to pay for this, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. 11 million. October 2022, they're in the whole 33. I can't even tell you what November is going to be. But that's what's going on with Celsius. So the question then is, well, will we be made whole again? I think we're going to take a pretty big haircut and go from there. And there is one more thing I'd like to talk about here in the notes. Number one includes proceeds from the sale of mined Bitcoin after the final order is approved by the court. So that first of all has to go through before they can do it. And that would be number one, total receipts. So they need to sell that Bitcoin. They have accumulated through the mining operation. So we'll see what happens. Not too great news. That's what's going on. So look, that's it for the news. I know I wish I could bring you some better stuff, but that is exactly what it is. So that will conclude the news part. If I stick around for a little Q&A, which I'm sure you might, I will answer all your burning questions, the best of my abilities as we go from there. Take off, take off. I appreciate you coming by. Thanks so much. I'll see you on the next one. Now let's jump into a little Q&A. Do-do-do.