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Finding Nate Silver - Sean J Taylor

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Published on Aug 15, 2013

Predictions are hard. They're hard to make and even harder to verify and evaluate. In this talk I'll discuss my thinking on credibility in prediction, why we care so much, and how to identify the people who actually know what they're talking about. Nate Silver bootstrapped this himself, but if we build the right system, we can find the Nate Silver of weather, sports, entertainment, public policy, and more. The implications are profound: by identifying predictive experts we can produce a new kind of "news": probabilistic statements about the world by the most qualified people.

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