 As we count down to the official handover ceremony of President Mohamed Buhari to President-elect Bala Ahmed Tunibu tonight, we discuss policy directions for the incoming administration. And President Buhari says Dengote refinery is a game-changer for Nigeria's economy. This is Plus Politics, and I'm Mary-Anna Cohen. As Nigeria prepares for another handover of governance structure at the federal and state level come May 29, it is necessary to discuss how the outgoing and incoming administration should manage to process devoid of glitches. There is no doubt that the quality of the Cabinet-in-close aides of the President-elect will determine how far he would go in dealing with the merits of challenges facing the country, ranging from insecurity to bad economy, unemployment, unstable inflation rates among others. Governments have called on the Tunibu-Shatima administration to prioritize security and use employment, and also to formulate policies to reduce security challenges to the barest minimum. Joining me to discuss this is Ezekiel Nyaito, who is a political analyst. Thank you so much, Mr. Nyaito. He's also former ADC governorship candidate for Acquivalent State. Thanks so much for having me. We are still in the traffic now, so I don't know where it ends, but for now. We are still up. Yes. Now, let's start by looking at May 29, whether we all like it or not, is sacrosanct. Of course, the tribunal is still seating. Most recent is that they have kicked out the issue of televising the proceedings live, devoid of it becoming some big brothers show, according to the Justice. But then many are wondering what lies ahead for this administration, and of course, as a people, the media, we need to set the conversation and set the ball rolling, pre-empting what would happen. So, let's start by looking at the problems that the Tunibu administration will face. In fact, the problems that Nigeria has on its plate right now. Just recently, there was a leaked tape or leaked audio or conversation between a former vice presidential placeholder and Masari, and of course, the governor of Kainu State, Ganduja. The tone of the message, most importantly, was that they felt, you know, abandoned, or he felt abandoned, Ganduja here, speaking about the fact that he's not sure that he can trust the president he elect. Now, that seems to obviously point to the fact that he was quoted to have met with Kwan Kwan Soh somewhere in Europe. And knowing that Kwan Kwan Soh had hit Ganduja very hardly in Kainu, this was obviously the cause for concern. How do you think that this would obviously play out in the choice of people that he would be picking to set up his cabinet? Okay, good. I don't know where to start from, but they are sending information that are extremely fundamental. One of those information is a fact that the electoral process has a beginning and an ending and Nigerians need to know. In terms of the beginning, we don't need to bother, but in terms of the ending, it starts to end. It starts to end on the day of election. After election, there is the next process, and it is part of the process, it hasn't ended. That next process is the tribunal. Anything can happen at the tribunal. After the tribunal, it has not ended. There is still the appeal court. And for the case of the governorship and the presidential tickets, it does not even end at the appeal, it goes back. It only ends at the supreme court. If you remember very well, we had the Oshun election several months back. It only several days back that Mr. Adeleke can sit down and say, yes, I am the governor of Oshun state. You remember very well that of Bayelsa, it was a day to swearing in. One day to swearing in, that there was a judgment that his running mate was not competent to be on the ticket, and on account of that, the man had to relinquish the seat. One day to swearing in. So we must talk with some level of cautious optimism or cautious concern depending on which side of the divide you are in. The fact that we had the first part of the ending favoring APC, we need to be careful not to conclude that it ends there so that there will be management of expectation. If, for instance, on Friday, the supreme court, considering the issue of double nomination that concerns the vice presidential candidate, if on that day they say that there was a case of impropriety, it could be a case of saying, sorry, you shouldn't have been on the ticket, and you know that once you are not on the ticket, your principal is also not on the ticket because the joint ticket, and you need to let these know so that as we talk, we talk knowing that we are just sleeping, we have our eyes closed or open, depending on which side of the divide that you belong. That's the first thing, they steal the tribunal, after the tribunal, they steal appeal court, after appeal court, they steal supreme court, and anything is possible. Look at that of emo state, the man was in office for about a year, and the supreme court says, sorry, it's not you, he had to leave office. So until the supreme court declasses judgment, it's not over. Luckily, with our current electoral act, all that comes within six months or there about, so worst case scenario within six months, we'll know who will finally be the next governor or the next president, as the case may be, but then we can't, for now there is somebody declared Mr. President, so we can now continue our conversation part two. Part two is Kano. You know, I feel sorry for Mr. Ganduja because he's a politician, and he should understand that in politics, there's no sentiment, there's nothing as heartless as politics. He's a game of numbers, he's a game of survival, he's a game of the thrones. As are today, unfortunately for him, there is a new dawn in Kano state. That new dawn is not the governor of Kano state, he's a one man called Alhaji, or Bong Kwan Kwa So. As a result, the man should just, Mr. Ganduja should just prepare his mind to play the second fiddle. I would believe that during the election campaign, he had told Mr. Hsiewadjou that oh, don't worry, Kano is within our full control, and these and that. So first, there must have been a breach of trust on his side because he did not deliver Kano as he would have, and Mr. Tinubu would have said, look, you know, I discuss with you on the understanding that you are in charge of Kano, but right now you don't seem to be in charge of Kano. I know this is a game of numbers, and Kano is not just another state of the federation. You know, there are some states, there's Lagos, there's Kano, there's reverse. These are some of the states that you don't treat with kids' gloves when it comes to politics. So he's got to know that, you know, the game is over for him. He just relax and pray to God that the incoming president, if he remains the president, will be able to, you know, accommodate him, you know, throughout. Let's talk about the policy direction of this administration, because I was about to interject when you were still talking that whether we know what's going to happen in six months or not, there has to be a policy direction. The fact that somebody has been declared president-elect means that he has to have a plan. Now let's start with what the Asiwadri campaign had, you know, put out as some of the strategies that they would employ in making sure that they bring Nigeria to its private place. Now they talked most importantly about social investment programs. But before we go into that, let's look at the people that will constitute a tenable Shatima government. Many would make reference to when he was governor of Lagos State and that seems to be light years away from today, but many people still remember it. But then the man who is president-elect today might not necessarily be the same guy who was governor of Lagos State back in the day. So my question is, do we see a fully formed technocrat field list as opposed to a political reward system cabinet? You see, I have always said this, and I want to repeat, there are two things I would like to bring out concerning Obang Tenubu. The very first one is time, and the second one is process. You see, I had a very elaborate discussion with a friend today, and I told him that there are two lines, there are two aspects in politics that we get mixed up. It's like in government, government is three arms. There's the legislature, there is the executive, and there's the judiciary. These three form what we call government. But we also, we always see government as the executive, but there are three arms and it's very important. In politics, there are two arms. There is the round pegs and there is the square pegs. Now, if you call the politicians the square pegs, they are those that do the politicking, they are experts, they know how to do the game. But there is a second arm that is called governance. Call those people round pegs. Now, when you have become an established square peg, like Obang Ashiwaju had become, he had become an indisputable king maker over the past 20 years when he left office. He's become a brilliant first class king maker. He's become the fantastic politician. His square peg size had enlarged so much. Now, when you want to transit him to become a round peg, which is a second room called governance, I do not know if he will be able to transit from being a square peg, which is a politician, to a round peg, which is a governance administrator. These are two different things and we need to understand that well. But let's, he's there, he's there. Like they say, we're here, we're here. He is now in the field of governance. There is a second challenge that we must pay close attention to. That second challenge is the challenge I had with my mother. I've said this time and time again. My mother was this iron lady. I mean, my mother, the fear of pandemicitis was the beginning of wisdom. She handled us with iron hand to the extent that I've never smoked because of my mother, fear of my mother. I've never taken beer, even when I went to secondary school. Something always told me, if you try it, a kite will know and which will handle you well. Okay? Now, fast forward, I became a father. I had children. My mother comes home to stay with me. And that iron lady suddenly becomes, I want to discipline my child. I'm like, no, no, son, I can't go in, I can't live, I'm not small, what was I? What was I came for? What was I? What am I trying to say? Age has a way of playing a game on people. So that Ashiraji that we knew 20 years ago that could assemble the brightest and the best that was ambitious, that was a go-getter, is he the same person today? Or has becoming a fantastic politician made him to look at things no longer from the perspective of development, but of, you know, talking about political exigencies or expediency. So the question is, who is Nigeria having today on the seat of power? The fantastic politician who has to speak loud and say nothing? The fantastic politician who knows that he the end justifies the means? The fantastic politician who couldn't care less who's ox is God? Or the administrator who has the milk of human kindness? The administrator who knows that sometimes you need to take hard decisions to be able to get where you're going? So the question number one is, which tinu-du are we having as on the seat of power today? The fantastic politician, the fantastic square peg, or the new man who is now a square peg? So that is my first concern. Then we can, like you said, as we progress, go into the possibilities of the administration, you know, the, I don't know how the question goes so that I don't talk for too long. Yes. Most importantly, because like I said, the, the, as you said, as politicians, the deals that are made, people make promises based on what you deliver in the case of that Ganduji and now talks with Kwan-Kosso. I'm guessing that this would be something that has happened across the different regions of the country. So now that you've put, you know, that demarcation that we're yet uncertain as to who, you know, we have seated there as our presidency leg, then we can't really tell, you know, what, what direction he's going to go in terms of the people who would feel his cabinet. But most importantly, let's go to Reverend Father Masikuka's Easter message and some of the things that he pointed out. He talked about the fact that Nigerians should be the priority of the president-elect. He talks about the fact that Nigerians are angry and the first part of call for the president-elect is to seek, you know, the unity of Nigerians, blur those lines that were obviously divided during the campaign season and election. Do you see this as an easy feat for the president-elect? Because, of course, for you to have any form of development, you must be able to get some seeming, you know, peace or, you know, some form of unity for you to be able to have a conversation with people around the table. Do you see him being able to reach across to every single Nigerian, especially after what happened during the elections? It depends on who we are going to have as the next president. Let's take the man that is already been given the mandate. Let's take the man that has already been given the mandate. Let's discuss him. If he comes in as the politician, he's going to think of his next election. And if he's going to think of the next election, he's going to ask himself, what sort of lines do I work on to ensure that I lay a solid foundation for myself? He's going to say, what sort of deals should I have with Mr. Wike? Number one. Number two, how relevant will he be two years from now? Because you realize that only himself in the whole of the federal republic of Nigeria has been able to build a dynasty that kind of is loyal to him long after they say, long after the price is forgotten, the quality remains, or long after the music stops, the melody lingers. So long after he had left office, he retained power. Now, the next person that could have done that would have been a man like Akpabi, but he couldn't do it. So the question is, how relevant will Wike be in the next two years running to the beginning of processes of second term? If Ashiraju thinks that this man is not going to be useful to him, trust me, he's not going to have any important relationship with Mr. Wike. So that is to say, the politician, if he's the one that comes to party, he's going to be thinking of his next election. So he's going to think in terms of how he can extend his tentacles. He's going to enlarge the position of Mr. Akpabi to have a large on the south, south. Okay. He's going to keep playing the game with Mr. Wike to ensure while watching to ensure that he actually gets reverse state wrapped up. By the time he gets reverse state wrapped up and he gets cannot state wrapped up, he can relax and know that second term he can play. Okay. He's also going to look for those areas that he may do well. But doesn't he have to survive the first term? Don't forget, we have so many problems with doubling us in this country. He's going to be inheriting a bad economy in a very highly indebted country where we have no idea how we're going to be paying back these loans. There's so much that is on his plate. He does have to survive that to even think of a second term. No, no, he doesn't need to survive that. Now, what I'm going to say now, I wanted to just listen to me carefully. If we were to go into a lecture on the basis of performance APC will not come anywhere near. They won't even come a second or third. They wouldn't. The politician in Mr. Tinubu knows how to win a lecture. He knows that it has absolutely nothing to do with performance. That's what I'm saying. It depends on who is going to come to table as our next governor or our next president. Either the politician Mr. Tinubu or the government person that we knew of Lagos State. We need to be able to draw that line very, very well because where it tilts is what we're going to get. Now, let us wish to God that this man comes in and says, God, you've been so good to me. You've made me not just a governor, not just a senator, you've made me relevant throughout till now and you've made me a president. What can I do to give back to you for how good you have been? And God says, take care of my people, feed my sheep. So he comes in as this man for whom governance is everything. He doesn't care whether he gets third term, second term. He just knows that he's got to hit the ground running. So when that happens, what he looks at number one is his team. He's going to tell people, my guys, you know, you helped me, your politicians, I'm going to make you comfortable. But please allow me to get a team that is first class. I want the very best team, including people who are not on my team, who were not in my party. I'm going to go across the lens to be able to fix the economy. So I'm going to bring the very best hands as far as the economy is concerned. Number two, you cannot talk of economy except this piece. The peace and stability is the foundation, the bedrock for a sustainable economy. So the question is over this period, I would have been doing, you know, I wanted to be a governor. So I did a lot of strategic analysis of sectors of issues of, you know, contentions of resolutions of possibilities. So if he did all those things, he would have known where the soft areas are with insecurity and what to do about insecurity. If he doesn't, I'm not an insecurity expert, but I can tell him one or two things inside the house that we'll make. You see, most Nigerians don't understand Nigerians. Most Nigerian leaders, they are one two things about Nigerians that the moment you just touch that, they are the Nigerians are the most believing, most trusting. They are the easiest people to govern in the whole of this earth. But if you don't understand them, they can be the most complicated sort of people. So they are one or two things. And one man that understands Nigerians very well, incidentally, is Mr. El Rufi. El Rufi, you can call him manipulative, but the guy understands what to do per time. They come back, so he's going to look for the issue. I'm sorry to comment that. Did you say El Rufi knows what to do per time? Why is his state in shatters or in tatters? No, no, no. You see, El Rufi is smarter than you guys give me the credit for. Yeah. But why is that not showing in his state in every wise? I'm not just talking about the security and the divisions within his state. The first question is what did he want? We always assume what people want. How many of us have gone behind our minds to find out what El Rufi really wanted? What would have worked for him if he had a personal ambition, was peace really in his best interests? How many people have sat down to understand the configuration and the dynamics of the place? So you're assuming that El Rufi didn't want peace in Kaduna state. Why was he then trying to be government? I am saying that I don't know what he wanted, but I also know that he knows how to get what he wants. And unfortunately, he's not moralistic about it. From my understanding, I may be wrong, but I see him, somebody who is not moralistic about issues, somebody who goes for what he wants. As the way I see him, he was FCT minister. And if you look at the way he got about sanitizing FCT, there was a major strategy which he adopted, which you always adopt. What is that? Look, why am I wasting time with the small, small boys? Catch a big fish and all the little fishes we run. That's his philosophy. And he worked fantastically well. What did he do? When he wanted to sanitize Abruja, he did not go to Masaka, one man village, Mara Kwaoda. No, he went for the chairman of PDP. He went for the general. He went for the head. He went for the juggler. He told the president, come on, are you with me? Can I do this? The president said go ahead. By the time he hit that, the whole country was like, what? Before he goes to Masaka, just hearing that the tractors have started raving the engine. People are already running out. They said that man is a mad man. No, if he could do that to general, who am I? Let me tell you, if you want to fight insecurity, look for whatever it takes. Use a sledgehammer to kill a fly and make one point. When you make that point, I'm not going to take no sense. I'm not going to fail because of you. I've got to have peace because this is not going to fail in my hands. It's one thing you do. One thing you do and all those guys, they relocate. They live Nigeria alone. This mad man, who knows what, you can solve that problem. When you come and start using insecticide, instead of pesticide, you become a toothless bulldog. What you have is that people come and start stroking your beards and like a dog, a dog because they know that you can only bark, you cannot bite. Show them your fans a little bit. They are very fearful in one hand. We are very daring in the other hand. Depending. Do you know that when Mr. Buwari came in, within the first few weeks, God, they feared that great Nigerians, they were afraid to do anything wrong. They said, man, this guy, even the Naira stabilized everything, the body language became the thing. But suddenly they started moving nearly like a child. They said, don't touch this, it will be moving small until it touches and it's because that fire is not real fire, it's illusion. Well, we'll wait and see what happens. Again, looking at what you said, let's see who turns up after the inauguration day, the politician or the technocrat. I want to say thank you. Izik El-Gaytuk is a former governorship candidate of the ADC in Al-Qaibam, and is also a political analyst. Thank you so much for speaking with us. What a privilege. Thanks so much and God bless you. All right. We'll take a quick break. And when we come back, we're going to be looking at Nigeria's Maribor refineries. And of course, the inauguration of the Dangolte refinery here in Lagos and what this means for Nigeria's economy. Stay with us.