 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody? Welcome on into covering the spread. That's right here on the fan to a podcast network and Numberfire.com where today we are getting you set for week number one of the 2020 NFL season breaking down the best bets on the board with JJ Zachary's editor-in-chief of number fire and fan You'll also talk in some player props with JJ which should be a blast as always. My name is Jim Saunas I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com joined here as always by Ed Fang You can find his work over at the power rank.com. Make sure you check out the pick report as well Ed week one has finally arrived. How you doing? I'm doing pretty good excited about a full week of NFL football and seeing what these teams do I've been studying over the last month and finally gonna do on the football field and then you know those four ACC conference games that are also happening as well as long as they don't get postponed like the big 12 Yeah, we'll see. We'll be we'll be following it closely. So Yeah, no, it's kind of unfortunate some of those big 12 games got canceled already Not a lot of headlines on those. No, I feel like I've been I feel like I turn on Sports Center and check ESPN quite a bit just to see if the world is blown up or you know, my sporting world has blown up Didn't see much about those but Yeah, clearly a lot of uncertainty. Hopefully we'll get a little bit more certainty with the NFL as I start playing games hopefully not having positive kit test results and We'll have a full season. That would be the NFL's kind of blown me away with how well things have gone so far I know teams are kind of like in training camp bubbles. So like they're not out in the world as much They're not traveling and things like that. But right the the number of negative tests They've had through the last month has Exponentially increased my level of confidence that we get a full season and like there's they're gonna be bumps along the way That's inevitable. It's gonna happen, but they've already exceeded my expectations So I kind of feel a lot more optimistic than I felt the entire time Which is good because week one's here and we get to watch some football starting tomorrow night Exactly. Yeah, let's harness that optimism and yeah, obviously a great one with Casey and Houston on Thursday night. Yeah, that's a great way to kick things off two young Exciting quarterbacks who've just gotten paid in this offseason. So that should be a whole lot of fun We're gonna preview that game and more with JJ Zachary's and find him on Twitter at late round QB as mentioned He is the editor-in-chief at number fire and Fandall We're gonna preview week number one also talk through some player props that JJ likes for this year That are still available at Fandall sportsbook if you want to jam some in before things kick off JJ has a Sterling record on this show so far. We had him on the preseason last year He nailed his bets with who was gonna lead the league in rushing that year He mentioned Derek Henry and Nick Chubb They were one two in the league in rushing and also we had him on before the Super Bowl talked prop bets there He said Pat Mahomes was going to score the first touchdown at 20 to 1 Pat Mahomes scored the first touchdown at 20 to 1 so JJ has a little bit of a reputation to live up to here on Yeah, most are under Russian. Yeah total in the Super Bowl as well, which yep, which was great So yeah JJ has a lot to live up to so make sure you follow JJ on Twitter at late round QB and check out his podcast The late round podcast three shows I believe per week over there as well It does change in season, but check that out also because we are now in season Do not forget to subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We'll be having an interesting we'll play it by year when it comes to trying to decide when to talk about college games and stuff like that So make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast And if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well before we talk to JJ We got to go back to last week because we had Megan Devine on to preview the Kentucky Derby and Megan lived up to the JJ The JJ aura I guess because she gave us some good recommendations as well. So let's go through those and then get to JJ Covering the past All right last week We had Megan Devine on to cover the Kentucky Derby follow Megan on Twitter at Megan Devine TV check her out on TV G check out her company vid horse and also the horse racing happy hour podcast and Megan did give out authentic as one of the horses that she liked for the Kentucky Derby at the time Authentic was 10 to 1 at TVG actually closed 8 at 8 to 1 So some closing line value there and did wind up winning beating out a late charge by Tiz the law I thought for sure Tiz the law was gonna win that based on the momentum Kudos to authentic and the reason that Megan was on authentic was because she said that he had upside because he was a bit immature And that issues out of the starting gate But she said as long as he could remain focused for that mile and a quarter He'd have the ability to win the race and that is exactly what happened So kudos to Megan for pinpointing that her favorite horse to win was honor AP honor AP finished fourth in the race King Guillermo was another horse. She recommended and he had to withdraw because of the sickness before the race he was 20 to 1 but Hopefully you wound up on authentic the upside play there at 8 to 1 or 10 to 1 I guess at the time so kudos to Megan for being all over that embracing the risk within authentic to hopefully win you some money And Ed if if you know that there's variants But that horse get the high end of the variance This is true in all forms of sports betting go with the high upside play if you know They can hit that high range at the end of high end of the range of outcomes Yeah, for sure I was definitely telling the people that I was watching the race with about what Megan was saying So that that worked out pretty well with the the high variance horse It was also interesting I thought like kind of tis the law down the stretch like he was the one that got distracted It almost like he like looked like he looked to the right and like missed the stride and then just could never recover yeah So yeah, I was like I was pulling for authentic I knew that had that Megan had talked about him and I saw tis the law like he was in fourth initially and that sort of climbing up I was like, oh man, dang it like I was so excited that Megan was gonna nail this and then she did because authentic held them off So kudos to Megan again follow her on Twitter Megan divine TV check out her work at TVG vid horse and also the horse racing happy hour But fun to have it there with Megan so congratulations and thank you to her for spreading that knowledge We're gonna talk to JJ in just one second But first football is finally here and this is you can bet all the action on Fandall sports book If you've never tried Fandall sports book, he then here's something you won't want to miss right now New users can get an exclusive plus 2,500 odds boost on Kansas City to win their Thursday night week one game against the Texans You heard that right you can bet five dollars to win a hundred and twenty five on the defending champs in their first game And with Fandall sports book and credible odds are just the beginning They've got a simple app live betting on every game and once you win they get you your winnings and as little as 24 hours So if you've never tried Fandall sports book, it's time to get off the sidelines Download the Fandall sports book app today and make your first deposit to claim your exclusive plus $2,500 odds or 2,500 odds boost on the chiefs to beat the Texans 21 plus in present New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Colorado, West Virginia, or Indiana New users only must wager on designated boost markets deposit required max bonus 125 see full terms at sportsbook.fandall.com gambling problem call 1-800-gambler or in Colorado call 1-800-522-4700 in West Virginia visit www.1800gambler.net or in Indiana call 1-800-9 with it We need one of those machines that speeds up my voice to read through all the disclaimers Maybe once we we get some huge budget for the show We'll get the the the speed booster for me, but not quite there yet. Eventually. We'll get there though Let's get set for week number one now with JJ Zacharisen again find him on Twitter at late round QB He is the editor-in-chief of number fire and Fandall and the host of the late round podcast We are previewing week number one and talking player props with JJ Zacharisen covering the present Let's bring JJ Zacharisen back into covering the spread and JJ you said the bar kind of high for yourself So I don't know if you want to Sace in the here to lower expectations for people, you know, I don't know because I feel like you just set the bar way too Hi, but how you doing today? I'm good. Look we all we talked about regression all the time With our analysis and that's exactly what's going to happen In my analysis as opposed to just a player regressing my analysis will regress So I'm I'm expecting not you know, I'll be more average because people often overstate what regression means They think that it means an overcorrection, but really I'm just back to my my normal self So I'll miss more than I did last year. I'm sure okay So regression is coming life is just one big regression towards a mean yada yada yada We understand that but it's week one JJ and it's feels kind of weird at least to me because it seems like all this has come out of nowhere I'm not sure if it was because of pessimism around the season But if you felt that in your analysis to where you've been kind of in scramble mode to get set for week number one because of the uncertainty Yeah, a little bit I mean I like to have things sort of set up and ready to go and my spreadsheets that I can just kind of plug and play and Go from there. But yeah, I mean, it's a different season for sure You know, it's a season where when I'm building projections and looking at projections I might be taking a little bit more of a conservative approach because of What we're dealing with in the environment that we're in You know with football in particular You have a sport that naturally causes lots of injuries, right? So, you know, we know that things can go sideways very very quickly for individual players And then obviously that turns into into individual teams But now we have this extra thing with the virus where you know, we have to play into that in some way But fortunately in terms of projecting and predicting It's something that's going to affect everyone and we don't know I mean, it's completely random as to how you know in terms of what we know in terms of how it's going to affect individual people So at least we can sort of have this like Blanket way of looking at these players as opposed to with an injury You know, there's one guy who might be slightly more injury prone than another guy, etc, etc But yeah, I mean, it's a different dynamic than what we've definitely been used to in the past Yeah, and I want to we're gonna get to week one obviously That's the main reason we have you here to preview week number one from a betting perspective But we also would be remiss we didn't talk some player props with you and you kind of alluded to this already talking about Your process for this year with your player projections, you know, and there's there's just less to go on There's less information from training camps with restricted access and restricted reporting on training camps. There's no preseason games So how has that changed things for you having less information on top of the uncertainty? With like you were talking about with the potential for players to get sick and things like that Yeah, I mean I think the difference with no preseason is that, you know In the past we're able to sort of see how these backfields in particular Let's say the running back backfields because that's something that's gonna be more coaching decision dictated as opposed to talent Dictated but in the past we've been able to see maybe what the rotation is gonna look like in a backfield and what maybe The the snap shear is gonna look like in a particular backfield But you know, we didn't get that this year So we're kind of going off of what we expect, you know And what we would have expected historically in like late July early August once we get our projections done None of that's really changing all that much aside from some reports here and there from beat writers I don't necessarily think it's a bad thing though because I think that a lot of times with the preseason We can sort of overestimate what these particular players are doing and how that really shifts The way that they're gonna see targets and how they're gonna be utilized in their backfields. What have you? So I almost see it as almost a win because we're able to stick with our process more and not deviate from it Just by some random thing that we see in the preseason Excellent JJ. So last year I want to talk about the markets and some of these player props last year. I believe it was Derek Henry and Nick Chubb that you nailed Which was awesome, please correct me if I got that wrong, but that's right. Yeah, awesome So we have all these markets for passing yardage rushing yardage receiving yardage any players that stand out in these markets Yeah, so I looked at especially at running back. I think it's really interesting. There's a lot of candidates in my opinion I think that uh, you know Joe mixon and and and mile sanders and Josh Jacobs are all interesting bets I think I like Joe mixon the most at the running back position who's plus 2200 right now Which I think is about where Derek Henry was last year around this time Um, you know Cincinnati might not be that great and that's not great because we want these teams to be in positive game scripts Which will then allow them to run the ball a little bit more and last year Cincinnati in neutral game scripts not just overall So Cincinnati was bad. So we would expect them to be a pass-heavy team overall But even in neutral game scripts, they were they were one of the most pass-heavy teams in football So they clearly want to throw the football But this is still a new environment for this offense where you have a rookie quarterback They might be a little bit more conservative So right now Joe mixon at plus 2200 He's the 10th He has the 10th best odds to to lead the NFL and rushing but my model my projections haven't met seventh So I think there's some equity to be gained there. I don't mind him And then you know the thing with Joe mixon too to keep in mind is that Rushing share and what he does on the ground has never been his issue. The issue is more his receiving numbers So you don't really like to worry about that that much With a with a prop like that. And then I also think divante adams is a really interesting bet at plus 1400 to lead the league in receiving I think you could easily lead the league in targets this year There's not a lot of competition in that green bay offense. They did nothing over the off season To really add to that they did get devon funches and then he opts out So there's there's really no competition for divante adams and then green bay last year as we know They were a very fortunate team. They won a lot of close games They they saw more positive game scripts and they probably should have This is now a team who has a an over under wind total That's a lot lower than what we saw them finish with last year Which means that they might not be as run heavy as people think, you know, if you look at all their moves I mean they they don't plan for the passing attack and the draft They don't do anything in the draft for the passing attack and then they get aj dylan in the second round A lot of people will just automatically assume that they're going to be this very run heavy team I think that they would ideally want to be that way But I don't know if they're going to be able to do that as much as they want to and as a result Devante adams who could see a 32 33 target share in this offense because the weapons are so poor I think you could lead the league in targets And then as a result he could lead the league in receiving Yeah, divante adams is especially interesting compared to michael thomas because michael thomas is like the other guy You point to is being someone who could have a 30 target share Michael thomas is four to one and divante adams is 14 to one And that gap seems kind of hard to really understand So I I agree with the the divante angle there for sure If you can find someone if you get that type of market share at 14 to one That's pretty hard to turn down. You were right about dara kenry being I think he might have been actually like 30 to one when we spoke because we spoke at like The end of july or middle july was middle of july and he was 30 to one at then I think he closed it like 16 to one And so not only do you get the bet right but there was also a lot of closing line value there too So mix in 22 to one. I think that is definitely interesting for sure. So let's keep an eye on for sure I just want to jump in real quick. Yeah, I find it how hilarious that a team with erin riders wants to run the ball more Just it's true. JJ. Um, I think that's an amazing statement And they probably know better than any of us that that that might be their best strategy given an aging quarterback And then also, um, you know, I mean, I think davante adams is going to probably get some more deep balls than michael thomas as well So if they have the same market share, uh, you know, michael thomas is going to be You know shipping away at those short ones, uh, erin rogers is probably going to be airing it out a little bit more a little more a dot For the packers For sure So make sure you check out those player props still up over at fangirl sports book before things close on thursday night Speaking of thursday night, let's dive into our first game of week number one. That is the texans at the chiefs Total here is 54 and a half It's the highest total on week one. Uh, the chiefs are nine point favorites And this is a sky high total for the first game of the year and it comes with no training camp Uh, no ramp up session no preseason games or limited training camp JJ, do you ever read either way on the total for this game given how high it actually is? I mean, look, we saw these two these teams play against each other twice last year once in the playoffs Once in the regular season and in both of those games, they went over this total And so i'm a little bit intrigued by that at least i'm also a believer within these these week one games that we're going to see a lot of overs The only Really seasonal comp that we have to this 2020 season where there's not a big ramp up period It's not normal is that 2011 season where there was almost a lockout where they ended the lockout at the end of July and in week one that year We only had four games go under So I I think that a lot of people get very fixated on Looking at offense an offensive situation when they're trying to decide where to go with a game Not only just because it makes sense, but also because of fantasy football But but really, you know the cohesiveness of the defensive unit is arguably more important than the cohesiveness of the offensive unit Because offenses know what they're doing They know exactly what they're it's it's sort of the same logic that we use with snow games People get all all scared about about offenses in the snow because They're going to slip and fall and they're not going to have a grip on the football But the offenses know where the wide receivers know where they're going the running backs Know what holes to hit and what's going to be open whereas the defenses have no idea And so they're at a slight disadvantage from that perspective I think it's sort of similar to what we're going to see here to start the season where Defenses aren't together. You know, they haven't been tackling at all really throughout August like they have historically So I think there's going to be a lot of overs and then in a game where you have to Sean Watson and Patrick Mahomes You know this this total is high. It's 54 and a half, but with those two quarterbacks I don't think it's substantially high, especially given what we saw last year. So I think all that combined I really like the over in this game Excellent So the Chiefs are going to allow like 22,000 fans in this game. Do you think that has any factor? in the spread or Uh, maybe even the total for you I don't think it changes too much for me. Um, you know, I will say that I don't think that we should completely dismiss Uh, home field advantage, uh without fans even, you know, I think there's something not only have we seen some Something in soccer. I know that that it's not as extreme, but there's at least some advantage to being at home Um, but on top of that, you know, you have the environment you have the the uh, the process that these individual players go through And the the familiarity of the locker room and of the field, etc So I do think that it still is going to matter in some way. Um, what's it going to be like when arrowhead is more like a Los angeles stadium this week. I'm I'm not entirely sure I don't think that it's going to change my outlook that much But I will say this I have a much better read and feel at least confidence wise on the over under of this game Versus the spread of the game. I think the spread is is pretty pretty on point Yeah, two things you discussed in there were the impact of travel still and um, the impact of, uh, of Having no camp on defense. We talked to Orlando Scandrick about that He said both those exact same things and a player would know the impact of travel the impact of Not having fans and the impact of not having that that preseason He said that it impacted defense too. So sounds like you are on the same page Orlando there where it seems to Bode well, let's move on to our second game here This is on sunday the packers at the vikings the nfc north battle the total here 45 and a half the vikings two and a half point favorites nfc north Pretty wide open. I think that's fair to say In part because neither the vikings or the packers seem to want to win the division based on the way They did things this offseason. So what's your overall read on these two teams broadly entering the season? I don't know if they know what they want to do Is how can we let me know then if they don't read on themselves? Yeah, I mean look green bay We just talked about it earlier green bay seems to want to run the football and look green bay's defense is not bad I think they have a fringe top 10 defense this year and then minnesota is probably a middle of the road defense at this point Um, so so maybe as a result of that they they could uh, both of these teams could run more run heavy And and be able to do that. Um, i'm just comparing the packer, you know earlier I compared the packers to what they did last season I think this could be one of the few games just given the fact that, you know, erin roger's efficiency is dipped over the last half decade or so Kirk cousins had a very very efficient offense and was very very efficient last year But um, you know, kevin stafanski's not there We don't know what the impact that that's going to make on this on this offense as a whole I think you can make the argument that this is one of the few games that you could go under Um, but at the same time, you know, I generally You know, I don't like doing that necessarily when the two quarterbacks are at least capable And then we've seen them be capable historically Um, so I don't I honestly don't have the strongest feel for this game because both teams Just seem kind of erratic like they they don't match what they should be doing in today's nfl with their actions Um, you know, we there's a lot of talk as to the vikings locking up dalvin cook longer term and and and that those kinds of moves And then obviously the aj dylan move those kinds of moves just tell me that that they're not necessarily Thinking logically on the offensive side of the ball, which doesn't make me feel great about Going over. Uh, so it's a game that I'm kind of avoiding for the most part with two teams that I think are a little bit directionless Excellent, let's move on to the box at saints, uh in the nfc south. Uh, this is tom brady's debut Uh, kind of everyone expects these to be the top two teams in their division Um, what are you thinking about this game? Yeah, look, I think both defenses are better than people give them credit for If this were a normal environment, you know, if this if we had a normal August we had four pre-season games We knew the defenses were more cohesive than what you know I was talking earlier about how they might not be together and gel well chemistry wise If that were the case, I would probably feel really good about the under in this game But because you know, you're facing you have tom brady and drew breeze We know they're both very very skilled quarterbacks We know both teams have a lot of weapons and we know that there are question marks On the defense side of the ball across the nfl because of that the lack of reps that they got I can understand going the under here and I like the saints more in this game too They're just a more complete team. They still have their home environment, which I still think matters Especially when you're playing in a dome I just think there are fewer question marks across that team. Tampa Bay's defense Is improved and during the second half of last year They were way better than people gave them credit for But I think there's just there's going to be some growing pains in general with this Tampa Bay team And so since they're facing what I consider Probably the favorite in the nfc or at least one of the favorites and the saints I lean the saints with the three and a half points And we've had a lot of people errant shots of football outsiders echoed that sentiment on the saints being an nfc contender Or the favorite to win the nfc and a super bowl legitimate team Now you talk about the chemistry with the bucks and it's not just them undergoing changes Are you worried about other teams that have had big changes in the off season transitioning heading into week one with no Preseason and things like that. Yeah, I mean, I think that you have to especially again on the defensive side You know, there are some units like pittsburgh for instance is basically the exact same defense year over year So you can feel good about pittsburgh going up against the the giants in week one And and what we're going to see from that defensive unit But you know, there are a ton of teams that that's all a massive turnover on the defensive side I mean you look at a team like carolina for instance where they're not only starting a bunch of rookies and unproven players Uh, so they should probably not be very good defensively, but the whole defense is just completely different Um, and so as a result of that, yeah, I'm going to favor, you know, the offense in general and here in week one But then on top of that without that that chemistry, of course I'm going to go inside with Derek Carr, which I never thought that I would say but You know, there are instances like that that I wouldn't lean that way just given, you know The the lack of continuity on both sides of the ball. Yeah, carolina has issues on multiple levels We'll leave that there for sure. Uh, so let's talk about the rest of week one Are you seeing any other value on the board here for week number one based on the current numbers of angelo sportsbook? Yeah, shocker. I like two more overs On this slate, uh, one of them has has moved a good bit since it opened I mean it opened a pretty pretty low number all things considered, but the cowboys rams game I think could be a serious serious shootout Uh, because you're looking at again two good offenses. That's that's great Um, you know the rams had some growing pains last year because the offensive line switched up and changed I know it's your boy jim jerry gough, but not his fault. It's the offensive lines. Yes never jerry's fault Yes, exactly. Uh, but but I mean you you have to feel good about the rams offense in general I mean since john mcvay has gotten there Only the saints and chiefs have scored more touchdowns than the rams have across the nfl So the rams should be scoring points. We know the cowboys are are arguably have They probably have a top two offense in the league right now So there should be a lot of scoring naturally, but also last season the rams and cowboys both ranked in the top three in neutral script Pace so they're gonna run at a fast pace too. I think that just sets up for an over Even though that game continues to climb with that over under I think it opened at like 49 and a half or something really Really stupid stupid low. Um, so I I love that game hitting the over I also really like the cardinals 49ers game Last year they averaged like 57 points per game the two the two times that they faced each other Jimmy Garoppolo actually had his two best outings at least in terms of fantasy points scored Against arizona and we're scared about the san francisco defense. I get it They likely won't be as good as they were last year just given some personnel changes But then also defenses aren't very sticky year over year in terms of data stickiness so and in correlation Uh, but kyler murray Dominate, I mean he played really well against san francisco last year. So I feel pretty good about that So I would not be surprised if both of those Offenses are able to click and work well and then we see an over. I feel like the 47 and a half is just a little bit low Yeah, the cowboys rams game I think the rams are just gonna be an over machine to start because their defense is gonna suck Like they lost a lot of legitimate, you know, you know, a lot of legitimate pieces Sure, it's a full year of jail and ramsie full year of erin donald once again But like they lost a lot of guys and wade phillips and that offense can they can they can do some magic You know, they they've got that fast pace like you alluded to and they should be more efficient with that offensive line Being healthier than it was. So I agree just kind of Blindly bet the over for all rams totals given the way that like I think they and the panthers Are going to be the two over machines to open the season at least based on the way to think shape up there And I also like the panthers raiders game too. I think that's another game that could easily go over That one's already gone up. That was a point of discussion on covering the future a couple weeks ago I was 46 and a half then I think it's 47 and a half now So hoping it goes up a little bit more wouldn't mind additional value there, but should be a fun Anytime we can get some overs we will always take that for sure. That is jj. Zachary So make sure you follow him on twitter at late round qb check out all of his work over at number fire dot com And on the late round podcast jj Thanks once again Hopefully things had hit at the similar rate this time as they did last time And we are looking forward to having you on once again soon. Thanks guys. Appreciate it Covering the future One final big. Thank you to jj. Zachary JJ Zacharyson for swinging by and breaking down week number one of the NFL follow jj on twitter at late round qb and ed It's not just jj talking about the overs in week number one My colleague brandon gadoula went back and researched that 2011 season And it was week the first five weeks the overs hit at a pretty consistent rate, but I can also like if you look at the the Totals on the board right now They're not necessarily low. So I find it interesting to try to decide how we want to play things for this week Yeah, no, I mean there's not like too many, uh Totals like under 44, right? I mean you definitely have jets and bills at 39 and a half which How dare they disrespect sandarno versus josh allen The josh allen show season three. Yes, it's gonna be good And what could go wrong? What could go wrong exactly? But yeah, I think I mean I think the markets do have you know some some pretty high totals So it'll be interesting to see If uh, you know we get points in excess to what the markets expect. Yep, absolutely I'm going to talk about an under at my cover in the future So maybe we'll cross our fingers and pray for that one. But first add let's start off with you You've been doing the pick report doing a lot of research into quarterback play And I think that's led to some interesting takeaways for you You want to focus on that here for covering the future for today? Who have you been digging into this week that you find interesting? Yeah, I mean I actually I I really like the wind totals market right now And you know one of the teams is hueson and so first let's talk about all the reasons you might be down on this team and this franchise They trade away d'andre hopkins one of league's best wide receivers Last year they actually allowed seven more points than they scored So negative point differential It was an eight and three record and one score games that that helped them to a to a ten and six regular season record And then uh, you know, they they come out of the gate going to arrowhead in kansas city And then they play baltimore in week two. So right out of the gate. They're playing the two best teams in the league But they do a key asset and his name is the sean watson So he's one of the you know youngest most mobile and most accurate quarterbacks in the nfl And houston, uh, you know recently signed into a long-term deal with 110 million in guaranteed money I also found some things to like Even more about watson So over the past three years he's had an interception rate of 2.3 percent Which is slightly below the nfl average of 2.4 percent over this time But you know the work I did This summer was all about how can we predict interceptions even better? And one of the things I found out was that bad ball rate is a very important statistic So you define this by taking interceptions plus passes defended So basically anytime a defender gets a hand on the ball or jar's ball loose with a hit So interceptions plus passes defended divided by attempts and when you look at this for quarterbacks, you know Not only is it really sticky from season to season But that's usually the best way to predict Interceptions going forward And what you find with the sean watson is that he has a bad ball rate of 8.9 percent Which is significantly less than the nfl average of of 11.3 percent So that suggests that houston could be doing even better In the turnover department this season And so I just think that there's a very high floor for houston as long as they have to sean watson and he stays healthy Uh, you know, I'm not super high on their defense But you know, they're certainly better than what seattle's defense was last year And if you remember, you know, seattle and russell wilson had a market win total of eight and a half Heading into the 2019 season You know, and and I think houston's defense could be just with the upside that jj watt brings If he's healthy, I like houston over seven and a half wins. I think they get to eight at least You really got to remember that, you know, despite the difficulty of that opening two games They they have two games against jacksonville Which is going to be pretty nice You know, not exactly the the toughest division down there either. So houston over seven and a half I'd like that too. And I think that deshawn watson is a really fun topic because You've kind of seen him progress in like very Measurable ways because in college he was obviously tremendous like national champion Dabo compared into michael jordan stuff like that. He was tremendous But he had an issue with picks and he threw a lot of interceptions at clemson But like you said, he hasn't done that in the nfl and there's a potential for this interception rate to get even lower So he's improved in that arena But we've also seen improvements for him from a sack perspective and part of that's because Having larry me tunsel will improve that but as dr. Eric eager has shown Quarterbacks play a heavy hand in influencing sacks as well and deshawn watson last year even when Tunsel missed time They had titus howard missed time too. They had injuries at both tackle positions Deshawn watson kind of just like stopped taking sacks So that's why I think that having faith in a deshawn watson led team Is probably not going to lead you astray that often because he's been great ever since his college days But even the imperfections that he does have are things that have gotten better as he has gone along and this is still just year 4 I believe with this guy, which is wild to think about but it's fun to watch a player who is already very good Show tangible improvements in important areas of his game, you know cutting out the interceptions from college Cutting down the sacks and I think that makes him really interesting That's why like I never talked about on the show But I do think that houston's interesting bet in the afc south because we've made a punching bag out of bill O'Brien, but Like you said, it's not the toughest division let the colts and the titans are fine But they're not The most imposing teams by any means. Exactly. No, and I think we're you know, I mean I can I can envision some regression for ryan tanny hill very easy. I can envision that very well. Yes And uh, yeah, it's not a division that scares you right like no one wakes up and is like, hey Playing in this vision. Um, yeah, it would be interesting to go back and look at his college interceptions. It's a lot so You remember I think it was the the game that alabama beat Clemson Uh Nick savings was so scared of dishaun watson that he actually onside kicked in that game Yeah, and kept talking about how you know dishaun watson could put it in such a small window So the accuracy has always been there. Um, don't know what happened with the picks in college Uh, could potentially be better in the nfl than than even what we've seen and that is uh, you know, that that that's a scary thought Jackson's our plus 320 to win the afc south just going to throw that out there Never know what could happen never bet against dishaun watson that's been a good creed Thus far from my cover in the future. I want to go against everything We have discussed with regards to overs and week number one and talk about an under now I did get my over in earlier because we talked about the panthers and the raiders the over there It's gone up to 47 and a half So that's the fun route if you want to go and over I still do like that one even at 47 and a half But if we're gonna have some less fun, let's talk about the seahawks versus the falcons I want the under in this game. It's currently at 49 and a half Which is the third highest total of the week and it makes sense Both teams have explosive players on offense. We got tyler locket dk meccaf hulio jones calvin ridley The list goes on in addition to that russell wilson guy There are a lot of great players in this game and there is a chance The seahawks may let russell wilson cook this year let rus cook. They might do that That would definitely help an over in this game But this is not a particularly fast game The seahawks were 24th in situation neutral pace last year that is according to football outsiders That would go up if they were to pass more But that's never a guarantee because we talked about rus rus throwing more often in the past has not happened as of yet The falcons were ninth in situation neutral pace and dirt cutter does tend to go decently fast But it's not some some super fast game by any means And we also I think could see a bit more defense out of both these teams this year The seahawks traded for jamal adams and he is a legitimate difference maker And I think that at least helps mitigate the loss of jadevian clowny I'd rather have jamal adams than jadevian clowny personally But I think they're both valuable members and at least jamal adams loss set the clowny loss The falcons signed dante fowler jr in free agency He seemed to get right last year get his career back on track with the rams That could help them to generate a pass rush and the seahawks are gonna be pretty weak at right tackle I don't honestly know what they're doing at right tackle. It could be a disaster They focused on defense the first two rounds in the draft both the falcons and the eagles did So adding additional names that you can question the players they picked with those picks But they did go defense there to try to improve the talent So this game is fun because of the players involved in it There are a lot of big names who can score touchdowns in a hurry and it's also indoors Which is great for offense, but the defenses may take steps forward this year And if that does happen, it's pretty easy to see a scenario where this game does hit the under the under here is minus 120 But it's already shifted to 48 and a half and a couple of books So make sure you shop around go to oddsfire.com try to search for the best line you can get And make sure you're getting the best number, but with it at 49 and a half at fandall I am good riding with the under here. I agree With what we said for the most part about ovars being the better play in week number one I just think this one's gone a bit too high So I do want to play it situationally take the under here at 49 and a half for the seahawks and the panthers Ed any thoughts for you on that game between or sorry seahawks and the the falcons any thoughts for you on that one? Yeah, I mean, I mean it's it's interesting to me just because the seahawks are going to be on the road But probably at the edge of the quarterback position, you know, maybe on defense with jamal Adams as well. They are a favorite Point and a half. I think my number suggests that it should be a little bit more But again, you know, you're you're traveling across the country playing in a a much different time zone there So we talked about what you were going to do with your home field stuff Did you wind up settling on one point for home field? I know that was what we had discussed Yeah, you might right now at one point Uh in the nfl and uh, you know, we'll make adjustments as we go, although obviously it's just it's a very small sample size In the nfl So, yeah There's definitely more analysis to be done there and hopefully I get to that soon And you're gonna have more data coming up on thursday and on sunday and on monday So it is a beautiful day to be a sports fan That is going to be a whole lot of fun and we're looking forward to it That is all the time that we have for today here on covering the spread ed Give us a final pump here for the pick report people can find that and consume all that good info Yeah, for sure. The pick report is my offseason long research about predicting interceptions and what are the best numbers to In which to do that I talk about players like karsten wenz I talked about the sean watson here, but there's a pdf. There's an audiobook. There's a data file Which will help you find value with quarterbacks in which, you know, they're projected picks and their actual picks are off You can get that all at the power rank dot info. It's a url That'll take you to a place where you can check out the pick report. It's also available to members of my site So go to the power rank net and that will take you to my site as well And then also, you know, we didn't get a chance to talk to jj too much about how he construct his models I had him on the football analytics show earlier this month to talk about that So if you're interested in that, uh, I would highly recommend checking it out I feel like often, you know, we we tend to have jj on talk about games and spreads and he's obviously very Good and knowledgeable about that as well. But it was really fun to dig into his bread and butter with season long fantasy football Um, which obviously applies to to player props as well But to really get into the weeds of of something that he's been consistently doing for a very long time Yeah, and the methods and how he builds it from team to player The art versus science So check that out at the football analytics show Yeah, the football analytics show for more from jj the power rank dot info To get the pick report, whether it be audio or written form and I would recommend it It is a fun listen. I listened to the audio version because I am lazy and uh, definitely would recommend that for sure I just don't you know, I like to listen to things during lunch. I like to make it easy on myself I still need to send you the pdf because there's a bunch of nice figures in there You sent me the the pdf. I have that. Oh, okay I was looking at it like today actually because I was looking at stuff for week one I was kind of checking out some stuff. So I do have that. So yeah, we are all set there But I I think the audio version for sure is a big supplement for sure the power rank dot info Do you get the ticker or pick report? Make sure you follow and on twitter as well at the power rank I am at jim sonnis j i m s a n and es you can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast Big thank you to jj zaka reason for swinging by and spreading his knowledge week number one and player props Find jj on twitter at the late round qb and also check out the or at late round qb and check out the late round Podcasts wherever you get your podcast big. Thank you as well the cavin thea bulb our video producer Thank you cow as always for keeping us on the air and adding it the video side for things for today And finally thank you to those of you the listeners who stuck with us throughout the all season through a literal pandemic And tuned into covering the spread We'll be back with you every week to get you set for the nfl So make sure you are subscribed. Good luck with your bets in week one. We'll talk to you again next week This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network