 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, leaving everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing well. If you are brand new to the channel guys, thank you very much for giving us 15 minutes of your day. We appreciate it. If you are brand new, click like, click like, share, subscribe, get notified when there is a new update. We generally do the update Monday through Wednesday and then again on the weekend. So thank you very much once again for spending a couple minutes of your day and hopefully everybody is having a great weekend. So let's talk about some things, right? So you have rising interest rates, not a good thing. Rising oil prices, not a good thing. You got the UAW strike, not a good thing. You have a potential loom of a government shutdown, not a good thing, right? These are all things along with a whole bunch of data, PCE and CPI and PPI and core and this, that, and the third, and Michigan sentiment and every other piece of data underneath the sun. And the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 put in its worst month of 2023. Matter of fact, they came just shy of a 10% pullback from the highs to almost, dare I say, call this a bearer scenario. I don't want to say it, but dare I say it, yes I shall. So there's a lot of stuff going on here, right? A lot of stuff going on. Obviously the economy as much as the government tells you how great it is and everything is okay, you can see it, right? You can see it from just a lot of stocks, consumer cyclical names. You can see it with retail, nobody's spending money and you can see it by the stocks that we're talking about. Look at retail, right? You got the targets of the world. Again, this is nobody's spending money. You got the coals of the world, nobody's spending money. When you look at consumer cyclicals, again, these are stocks like Proctor and Gimp, right? You're talking about the most basic necessities, shavers, right? Colgate palm olive. You're talking about soap, right? Dishwatcher detergent. These are basic things. So as much as the government's selling, everything's all right, right? Everything's all right. Inflation, yeah, it sucks, but it's under control. You can see what's going on in a lot of names that are trending in the wrong way in the market if you are a shareholder of those names. And this is one of those eye-opening things that when you look at the overall broad spectrum of what's going on in the market, you can see the breadth is terrible. Despite some days, you can see the NASDAQ could be up 150, 200 points. When you look at the dynamics of the broader picture of what's going on, the market is not great. When you look at last week, okay, you have still a lot of names just getting hit. The NASDAQ 100 has been now below the 50-day moving average now for about two weeks. We talked about levels here. We'll talk about a very, very important level. They got rejected. We'll get to the pivots in a second. But right now, the market is really giving permables or investors not a lot to smile upon yet. Now we are entering the fourth quarter. Monday will be the first day of the fourth quarter. Traditionally, the fourth quarter has been strong. Traditionally, you have the Thanksgiving rally flowing into the Santa Claus rally, flowing into the January effect. Does it have to happen? Nothing has to happen. All you got to do is look at the end of 2021 spilling over the 2022. We know all those traditional things go out the window when there is doubt in the economy. There is doubt in a political geosynthetic type of environment, maybe political, which we're going to see in 2024. They have to get some work in. They really do. They have to get some work in all these beaten up groups that we just talked about. The consumer circles, the retailers now struggling, technology names. Although, again, they will have their day in the sun throughout the week. The bulls better step up. We'll talk about some levels here in a second. S&P 500, right? Dip below 4,300. That's been an area that a lot of traders have been watching. Again, we continue to close below, even though we had a couple of attempts. In the last two days, Thursday and Friday, get above it, kind of even reclaim back the correlated five-day moving average. They couldn't do it. They got faded on gaps. Again, we'll talk about the importance of understanding levels in one second. What's going to get this market up? It's a rhetorical question. I don't have the answer to that. I don't think anybody has the answer to that. Again, I look for a very, very standalone scenario. If it quacks like a duck and looks like a duck and walks like a duck, I promise you it's not a rhinoceros. If you think the market is weak, it's weak. That's the whole point. It's weak, and we've seen so much data now, whether it's financial or price-driven data, that suggests that gap-ups are being sold. Flat opens are being sold. The gap downs and goes are being sold as much. Again, not a great landscape entering Monday, the first day of the fourth quarter. Again, as we say every single day, anything could happen. Anything does happen. That's what makes the stock market the greatest reality show that's not on television. Let's talk about where we start the week. Where we start the week is the S&P, again, below the 4,300 level. Now we are building, figure out the 50. We've been long gone below the 50. We have to concentrate the big two levels coming up on this week for the bulls. They have to defend 4,264. That is the 150-day EMA. Then they have to defend 4,238. That was the low of the week, which stopped the right at... What was that? It stopped the right at the... I don't even know what that is. Whatever the supply demand zone it is, that 4,238 is definitely going to be the line in the sand because any close below 4,238 on the SPX that we go down to 4,200, again, the bulls definitely don't want that for the upside. For the bulls to get their tushies in motion, maybe start something good, we need to reclaim back at least the 4,340 level. That is the 10-day moving average. Again, if you've been watching these workshops or watching this religiously, you know the 10-day moving average is the birth of the trade. The 50-day moving average is the birth of the trend. That's why we always emphasize the importance of the 50-day moving average. When you go down to the NASDAQ 100, NASDAQ 100 got rejected. We talked about that level for the last few days, right? That 362,363 level, it got rejected there perfectly. Again, I'll show you the pivots here in a few minutes, but it got rejected perfectly. We gapped up on a pretty big move. We were up 150 points on the NASDAQ. Maybe it was even more. Maybe it could have been 200 points on the NASDAQ. We gave it all back, guys. That's not a good thing. This is what happens when you don't know where your supply zones are and they get rejected at the top of the range. If you look at what happened on Friday, you see this big gap up on data and just an absolute avalanche is selling that followed despite the market actually closing up. The Q is actually closing up to $0.26. They're up almost four or five bucks for the day. Again, not a great sign. The bulls need to defend $357. $357 is going to be the five-day moving average. Again, if you are brand new to the channel, the five-day moving average, at least for me, is the shortest term sentiment to see who has control, literally, of the short term. $357, the bulls need to defend. The bears need to defend $363. $363 to the upside. $357 to the downside. That is your ranges to start the week for bulls and bears and obviously act accordingly based on confirmation of this channel. Going into Monday's session, a couple of story socks. You've got Tesla coming out with numbers over. I think it's on Sunday. They're coming out with delivery numbers on Sunday. We talked about in the beginning of the week, Tesla was due for a dead cat bounce. Tesla got the big dead cat bounce. It went from 234 all the way up to 255 in the last few days. The dead cat bounce is there. The problem is it got rejected off the 50-day moving average on Friday, which again, which is not good, but delivery numbers are due out on Sunday. I think you can see the Sunday morning and Sunday afternoon. I'm recording this video Saturday evening. Again, obviously the stock is going to react to whatever those delivery numbers are. Deutsche Bank on Friday already cut their estimates for their deliveries. Blame it on the Chinese shutdown of their plants. They don't believe that the numbers, even if they miss deliveries, is going to be effective in the stock. We shall see. I have no idea. Does anybody really have to guess what's going to happen if they actually miss deliveries? Again, we don't know, but from the surface point of view, the Tesla did get rejected off the 50-day moving average after a dead cat bounce that we talked about on Monday and Tuesday. Going into this week, again, we start the week again until the bulls reclaim big levels. You're going to see a lot of value continues to the downside, but to our credit, as traders, we do find those nuggets, those diamonds in the rough, that do perform very, very well despite what's going on in the broader market. Let's talk about Friday's pivots. Obviously, what I wanted was, if you guys were on Thursday's video, we had a nice little rally, and we reclaimed back the 5-day moving average, and we were talking about it in the webinar on Thursday night. I was like, well, hopefully we don't get a gap up because what I think is going to happen is if we can get a gap down, I think shorts will get trapped and they will squeeze them into the previous day's range. Unfortunately, that didn't happen. This is what kind of the downside wrote here. The last thing we wanted today was a gap up, and we got the gap up. All our pivots that we were looking for to make their measured moves, they already made their moves pre-market. For example, I really liked Tesla at 247 for a potential move to 53-54. It gapped up to 53-54. Again, there was nothing there for us. The meat of the bone is gone. Let's stay patient and try to find some value. We definitely found some value here. Rivian, a very, very strong move today. Rivian 23-58 needs to build. That will confirm the 50-day moving average. Here was Rivian. It took out the 23-58. Beautiful move here. It went up about a buck considering how lame the rest of the market was. Now it's striking distance. Of the September highs, if it confirms the September highs, you might get a push to 25, but it was a dollar move on a $20 stock considering how the market got pulled. It was pretty impressive. CLVT, I like this thing. Watch this thing for next week. CLVT is a slower mover name, but you guys know how much I love these earnings slow plays. If this thing starts confirming the bottom of the channel here, this thing could start getting hit. Getting hit down to the earnings low. Guys, watch this thing. Watch this set. CLVT below last week's lows for a potential move down for the next couple of days. PLTR 1635 needs to build. It rallied about 50, 60 cents. Not a big move, but it took down 1635 and went all the way up to 1680. About a 50-cent move. Nothing crazy there before. It reversed course like everything else. Here was the big one here. Here was the big one here. 6280 is, again, that the part of the PS60 works, the PS60 theory is, there's the average C, the natural pivots, the top of the range, the bottom of the range. There's also what we call the sneaky pivot in the middle of the range is that we can take advantage of. And then there's another aspect of the PS60 theory that we have bounce areas, right? Bouncing of demand and then rejections off supply. And this was a very, very big rejection. 6280s, right? That's the Q's potential rejection into supply. Guys, that was literally the high of the day. 6280s, the high for the day was 6290s. And the Q's just got destroyed. They went down about five bucks from the rejections. Congratulations for you guys who took a great, great move here. Here we were celebrating the 61 move. It went down all the way down to 57. So a great job there. Other than that, again, it was a pretty solid week. We're looking for some names to definitely follow through this week. Let me give you guys a couple of names that I am watching for this week. And then I'll let you guys continue with your weekend. So we talked about CLBT. Guys, watch this SLNO. Definitely one of the prettiest charts out there. As you can see here, it's gotten rejected at the top of the range two out of the last five days. Keep an eye on SLNO. If it finally gets above the top of the range here, maybe this thing wakes up. Game stop, right? Game stop. So Game stop, if you guys notice, there's a movie coming out or it already is out. It's called Dumb Money. I personally have no interest in watching it as much as I love the actors playing in it. We already went through it. Does anybody not know the story of Game stop, right? Listen, when it comes on Netflix, when it comes on Amazon Prime, I'll watch it, but to go out of my way. Anyway, a lot of people thought they were going to run up the stock ahead of the movie. That didn't happen. They came out and a point that I forgot the guy's name is the new CEO. I forgot what the guy, Ryan Cohen, I believe his name. Something like that, right? So that didn't get the stock up. Guys, watch the bottom of the range here on Game stop, right? Take a look at this, guys. If this thing starts losing the Bollinger Band here, it's things going to get lower. So they couldn't rally the stock into the movie. They couldn't rally the stock appointing a new CEO. Oh, what's going to get the stock to rally? You follow what I'm saying? So guys, watch the bottom range here of Game stop and let's watch Tesla. Let's watch Tesla. Let's see how it reacts to those delivery numbers or those delivery numbers baked in. If they do miss, we'll see. We'll see. Again, I have no idea. It's all guessing to the upside. I definitely want to watch if it reclaims back the 50-day moving average and to the downside, I want to see what happens when they lose the 10-day moving average. So there's a couple of names we're definitely watching. We're definitely going to see how the market sentiment and opinion and what's going to go on here with the government over the weekend. Because keep this in mind, it's Saturday night. By the time Sunday rolls around, you have your Tesla numbers and you have a potential resumption of the government or a shutdown of the government might be in the cards as well. So we don't know, right? We don't know when it's going to take place. So guys, have a great, great weekend. God bless everybody. Stay humble. Stay patient. Stay living, right? Unless we are underground, it's already a good day. So smile, learn to love life and life will love you back. Guys, God bless. I'll see you all in a minute.