 This is Covering the Spread, part of the FanDuel podcast network. We are getting into crunch time for both the NBA and the NHL for their respective regular seasons. We haven't gotten to talk a lot about those two sports recently with the college basketball tournament sucking up a lot of helium. So it's time to get Tom Vacchio back into the show. Get his thoughts on tonight's slates in both the NBA and NHL. Let you know where he sees value over at FanDuel Sportsbook. This is Covering the Spread right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network and FanDuel Research. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a managing editor of digital media for FanDuel Research. Joined here as mentioned by Tom Vacchio. Check him out on Twitter at Tom underscore Vacchio one. I can find his work over at FanDuel Research. He, of course, the host of the Daily ISO on the FanDuel Research podcast feed. Tom, happy Tuesday to you. How's it going? I'm doing great. Yeah. Super busy time MLB starting covered that last week when I was here. For a couple of episodes, like you said, crunch time for these two sports. We are winding down to the most important games of the season. We need some playoffs. I'm ready to go. How is MLB going for you so far? Oh, it was pretty good. Yanks after a 5-0 start, which I can't complain about. I will say haven't been against him a few times just because it's baseball. And I expect them to lose at some point. But I'm not going to complain about them winning. I had a Soto over one and a half total basis bet last night. And I joked to Austin Cass, our colleague on Slack, that a four-walk game wasn't coming. I think he only walked twice. So we weren't quite there. But, you know, it was bound to happen. I cursed him to have zero base hits as a result of that. So it's my fault. It always is. I accept and understand that for sure. We're going to talk to Tom about the NBA NHL for today. Get his thoughts on both those and let you know where he sees value for tonight at FanDuel Sportsbook. But first, a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast. Big week here, of course, because the final fours have now been settled. We'll be talking about both the men's and women's side of things with Ed Fang on Thursday. So make sure you subscribe to covering the spread to get that as it goes live wherever you get your podcast. If you like what you hear, leave us a five star rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. You can also find the show on the Fandal YouTube page and Fandal TV Plus. Of course, Tom alluded to baseball stuff. If you want some daily baseball recommendations, I am giving those over on the solo shot as well. That's on the Fandal Research Podcast feed. Talked about a couple of bets I like for Dinger Tuesday for today and also pair of strikeout props. I like for tonight along with the core DFS plays over on Fandal. 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Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit fandal.com-rg in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, Virginia, and Vermont. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXT-STEP to 533-42 in Arizona. 1-800-878-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash Jack Connecticut. 1-800-9 with it in Indiana. 1-800-522-4700 for the KS gambling health.com in Kansas. 1-800-777-770 stop in Louisiana. Visit MD Gambling Health Oregon, Maryland. 1-800-GAMBLER.NET in West Virginia. 1-800-522-4700 in Wyoming. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 1-800-327-5050 for 24-7 Supporting Massachusetts or call 1-800-777-HOPEN-Y or text HOPEN-Y in New York. Now, Tom, we've been focusing on other stuff. So we haven't got to talk NBA for a while now, but it is the thick of the regular season with just a couple of weeks left. And the play-in and the playoff pictures are now coming into focus. Any value for you in the futures market right now as things start to ramp up here? Yeah, so under the To Make the Playoffs section, this obviously gives us options for making the playoffs and the play-in. So the play-in means they just have to finish in the bottom where they've finished 79-10. Make the playoffs means they actually have to make the playoffs either top six or win. So if you look to the East play-in tournament odds, I actually like the heat to make the play-in at minus 130. And right now they're sitting in the seventh seed. They're one game behind Indiana. And Indiana has a little bit of an easier schedule to close out the season. And if all things are equal and they already have a game lead and they have this easier schedule, it's not like the heat have no motivation. It's just at a certain point when they're playing this many games in this few days to end the season, I'll simply just side with the team that has the advantage as of right now. Now they do play one more time to close out the season. These teams split their first two matchups. So that final game could be the tiebreaker game. So we're talking about like razor thin margins. Are they the same record? What's the tiebreakers after all these sorts of things? But at the end of the day, if everything's equal, the team with the easier strength of schedule should just prevail at a certain point. It's not like the Pacers have no motivation. Of course they want to make the playoffs. So I will take the Pacers to make the playoffs and the heat to make the play-in very, very minor details that end the season. The heat right now minus 130 to make the East play-in tournaments as far as making the playoffs, obviously the Pacers are listed there because they'd probably be in a pretty good spot if they were to make the play-in, to make the playoffs as well, but you can't take the heat at minus 130 to make the play-in. If you think that the Pacers may have lagged down the stretch and the heat get hot, Pacers are two to one to be in the play-in tournament as well over at FanDuel Sportsbook. Yeah, really, really straightforward. It's a fun time of the year because the head-to-head matchups actually really do matter of what happened in November and now we're getting to the point of like, oh, that game, it's a Tuesday game, why does that matter? Now they matter. Yeah, for sure, they definitely do. Okay, let's take a look at a couple of TNT games for tonight, Tom. We've got Thunder versus 76ers, Mavs Warriors, thought for a second we might get Joe L&B'd for the 76ers game, not quite back to return yet. So it does, it was a tiny bit of a sluster, but let's talk about that Thunder versus 76ers game first, Tom. Right now the Thunder, five and a half point favorites. Any value for you in that game right now, FanDuel Sportsbook? That's starting off with Jalen Williams for the Thunder over four and a half assists at Sittin Minus 102. He is technically listed as questionable. He hasn't missed too many recent games I'm expecting to play. There's a clear lack of player props in this game overall because SGA, Maxi and Williams, they're all listed as questionable tonight. Now SGA missed a couple of games. He played the other night against the Knicks. Maxi, they obviously need him to play with no Mbid still. So a few moving parts in this game, but Jalen Williams is playing like a solid facilitator role with or without SGA in the lineup. He's averaging 5.1 assists over his last 10. We should see some back and forth action in this game. I would trend towards the under but still a nice competitive game. Both teams need to play and win. And that's something I always like to focus in on at this point in the season. There's not many matchups that we get, especially on tonight's late. Where both teams have motivation to play and win. The Lakers are 12 point favorites against the Rappers who are on a 13 game losing streak. The Bucks are 14 point favorites against the Wizards. Like we actually have a game where the game environment should be strong because both teams are fighting for seeding. Now it's different types of seeding with the OKC at the top of the West and Philly trying to secure their spot in the play-in. But that means we should have consistent minutes. And that's what I want to ultimately focus in on players with consistent minutes should have a tighter range of outcomes. It shouldn't be a vast range of outcomes because we should be seeing teams operating in a rational manner, essentially. So if SGA is out, that's only a boost for Williams. But even when SGA has been in, Williams has been solid. So let's say that SGA is ruled in later today. Would you still take this then knowing that or is this based on the possibility that SGA does wind up seeding? If he's in, that's great because the offense should just have a higher expectation, higher scoring ceiling overall because he's awesome. And he really should be in the MVP conversation. He probably doesn't get there just because it's Yoakic and Luca doing their thing, but he's maybe a third or fourth option. But if he's in, the offense is going to be operating a full capacity. And if he's out, Williams has the expanded offensive usage. So either way, it's okay. So Jill and Williams over four in Ephesus, minus one or two, that's the 76ers versus Thunder in the first TNT game. Second TNT game, as mentioned, is the Mavericks taking on the Warriors. Pretty tight spread here. One point spread in favor of the Warriors. What are you seeing in this one, Tom? That's going to a Kyrie Irving under 23 and a half points, sitting at minus 113. Both teams are a little bit hot right now. They're picking up some wins. Warriors are in like absolute crunch time. Like you said at the beginning, like this is crunch time for them. The Rockets have been super hot. The Warriors right now have a two game lead as the 10 seed and Houston is fighting to get that last play in spot. So the Warriors have to lock things down on defense. And we have seen that because they are playing much, much slower. Throughout the regular season, the average is 103 and a half possessions per game. But over the last three, they're down to 97.6. They are decisively playing slower, trying to control the game. And Dallas is also playing a little bit slower. They were up at 103.3. They're down to 99.8. So teams are playing slower at this portion of the year because they're trying to control things. They don't want to get up and down and run. So fewer possessions, tighter defense. Both teams fighting for, again, play-in slash play-off seeding. And that just trends towards unders. Now the Warriors actually have improved their defense dramatically from where it was in like December and January. And I'll simply side with the under. Despite being a high volume shooter, Irving can be extremely efficient. I want to focus in on how these teams have been trending defensively and what should be a play-off type environment tonight. A little lack of scoring, a little bit gritty. Wouldn't be surprised to see Draymond, maybe pick up a flagrant foul or whatever it might be. But like a hard nose game tonight is what we should be seeing. So right now the market for Irving is 25 and a half points minus 113. Does that movement concern you at all? Jump up from 23 to 25 in 10 minutes. A little concerning. I mean, it is. It's the wind horse meme. Why would it do that? Yeah, it's still one point spread in 232. I mean, I might still buy into the under. I think it's being inflated artificially. I would still buy into the under. This is the one thing I wanted to make note of, of Embiid, since he wasn't going to play, but the one thing I would say about Embiid is, if he gets ruled in front of their next two games, I actually have a ton of interest in taking Embiid unders right before Locke. Because if the number gets steamed up throughout the day, I want to start taking unders after everyone's, the public has already bet on the overs. Right. And with Irving, we might be seeing a bit of that here. We do tend to see more action on overs than unders in general. So if you're looking for unders, you can often find some good value. But for tip, you always do run the risk that like someone is on the under and it does move it that direction. So there is risk in doing that as well. But you're typically more likely to find value in unders than overs as you get closer to tip. So that's what I'd phrase that there. Irving right now, 25 and f points. Under is minus 113. Maybe do a quick Twitter search before you lock this one in to make sure nothing has changed here too tangibly to make sure that is still good to go. But if it's just moving up for organic reasons to 25 and a half, Tom does like the under 25 and a half minus 113. Plenty of other games for tonight as well, Tom. Anything else stand out to you across these seven other games in the NBA for tonight? Yeah. That's going to Donovan Mitchell for the Cavs over 22 and a half points there at the Utah Jazz is revenge game. Yeah. Minus 120. Mitchell recently returned from a number of different injuries, but most recently he was as a nasal fracture. So he's wearing this face guard, this facial that players have been known to wear. And since he's been back, he's like 32 and 30 minutes, which is great. He was, you know, had some quotes after their most recent game against Denver, very frustrated about how the team is operating. But he shot 4, 13 and three of 12 from the field in these two most recent games. So A, the field goal attempts, just the volume of them are low for Mitchell, who should be in the high teens if not 20s. And he's obviously, you know, very, very inefficient. So I talked about him on the daily ice. So like maybe it's just the mask bothering him. Like players have been known to like, they can play well, but like maybe just take some time. He's a little bit uncomfortable. He also missed the number of games, blah, blah, blah. Like all these things. But ultimately 22 and a half points for Mitchell is a very fair line. And it's also an extremely easy match of going up against Utah, who's sitting a bunch of players, John Collins is out, Laurie Markin is out, Jordan Clark is down. Like all these players are out from Utah because they're out of it. So I want to buy low on Mitchell for it should be a high volume shooter who should see his efficiency rise back up. He's not going to shoot three of 12 or whatever on a nightly basis. So it's the mask bothering him. He's getting back into the flow of the offense, whatever it might be. He's their guy. And he should be pushing to 25 if not 30 points every night. I think we need an investigation about the Mitchell mask or masks in general. I know there used to be like the Kelly Olinik bun versus hair down splits. He did better with the bun versus others. That one might have less of an impact than a mask might just kind of hypothetically throw that out there, you know, scientifically. But Mitchell 23 and a half points right now over is minus one of six in his revenge game against the Utah Jazz. Tom is liking that one as well. Let's just focus now and talk about the NHL for tonight. A game slate there. Let's start things off with the traditional markets, Tom. Anything you like across the NHL as far as puck lines, money lines, totals, anything like that. The last game on the slate, the Canucks and Golden Knights under five and a half. And I will say for tonight's slate, we have a lot of five and a half's, which, you know, if this was, you know, January 2nd, December 2nd, these would not be five and a half. These would, most of them would be six and a half. But under five and a half for Canucks and Vegas, this is a potential first round playoff matchup depending if Vegas can hold onto the three seed. Teams are playing super tight, especially in the past two weeks, both of these teams have been absolutely phenomenal on defense. The Canucks are number one in the league, allowing 1.31 goals per 60 minutes in five and five situations of the last two weeks. And Vegas is number five at 1.54. So these teams have really tightened up on defense. You know, this is more of a priority game for Vegas, just because of where they are on the standings, the Canucks should have the number one seed in their division locked up. But if Vegas falls, this could be a first round matchup for the wild card. A lot of different permutations. So these teams have to be playing things tight, you know, lack of shot attempts, lack of scoring, you name it, like a playoff type matchup is what we should be seeing for both sports in a lot of these contests moving forward. All right, so that one is at five and a half right now, minus one to six. I will say it was kind of jarring when you said under five and a half at minus one to six, just because like it just feels so low. But like you said, like it's just a different intensity this time of year than what we have earlier on, just touching for two teams that have, you know, longer term ambitions and hope to be playing hockey for until June. Yeah, I like, we are in for some, I don't want to say like gross games, but like I kind of like those. Like that's what we should be seeing from Nick's heat tonight that over unders 207. But like, I feel like with this, it's not, it's not, it's like an old school SEC game where it's like the total is low because the intensity is high and it's good defense, not because like it's sloppy or anything like that. Right, that's what I, like that's the point I want to make. Like I want like, I always say like ugly basketball or ugly hockey and I don't mean it from like, Oh, the teams are bad and they don't know how to operate. I mean it from like the intensity is ratcheted up and we are going to see like the true ceiling of these teams from the best ways that they show. And that doesn't necessarily mean offense. It means defense. It means like operating things normally, like the best way that they possibly can. That's what I find interesting. Right. And I think that's a different with hockey too. We're like good defense is a lot more exciting in hockey than pretty much any other sport. It can be fun in basketball, but like the end results probably in this shot and like I'd rather watch like a six save or like lockdown defense in the NHL than anywhere else. So like I'll take a low total in the NHL pretty happily. We get that here with the Canucks and Golden Knights under five and a half is minus 106. What are the player props to the NHL for tonight, Tom? So tonight's sleep is tough because we have these low totals if we're not gonna see a lot of scoring, that means we're not gonna see a lot of goals and a lot of shot attempts. The one spot that I like at least as of now would be Minnesota, Brock Faber for Minnesota over one and a half shots minus 122. He really should be in the conversation for Rookie of the Year. If it wasn't for Conor Bardard this year, he would probably be one of the top three finalists. Minnesota Bowen and Bred, Brock Faber playing for the Minnesota Wild. Great defender for them. He's on the first defensive pairing, second power play unit. He's a good volume shooter. He's not a massive volume shooter. 18 shots over his last 10. He blocks some shots. He gets a little bit of offense going. It's an easy matchup versus the Ottawa Senators. Minnesota is not eliminated from the playoffs. They're clearly on the outside looking in. But if they want any shot of pushing towards the last wild card spot, this is the matchup that they have to win. They can't be giving away these points. That means they should be pushing the offense forward. So it actually should be an exciting offensive game for Minnesota at a basically any, or higher than any other team on the slate is the point that I'm making. That number for Faber right now, over one and a half shots is minus 122. I think we got to feed off the good vibes of Paige Becker is winning last night because that's a very Minnesotan thing. She's from Minnesota too. Brock Faber from Maple Grove went to the U of M. So it's just Minnesota vibes in general. I told him Minnesota Bowen and Bred, he's playing for Minnesota like, yeah. But he's like, he's like, I always care about the native Minnesotans. Like, I don't care who's playing for the Gophers. Like, that's fine, you know? But like, I want the native Minnesotans. Faber is that. And that's why I'll claim Paige Becker's too, is she didn't play for the U of M, but at least she's from there. So either way, it's Minnesota vibes, Tom. It's Minnesota season. And we got to take Brock Faber over one and a half goals, minus 122. It's not because the analysis Tom gave, it's because he is Minnesota. And that's the only reason we're going with Brock Faber for tonight. Alrighty, that is all that we have here for today on Covering the Spread. Again, the recommendations from Tom. Brock Faber over one and a half shots, minus 122 connects Golden Knights under five and a half minus 106. Donovan Mitchell over 23 and a half points, minus 106. Check on Kyrie Irving to make sure nothing funky is happening there under 25 and a half minus 113. And then Jalen Williams over four and a half assists. That is minus 102. Tom, I appreciate the time from you as always. Good luck tonight and enjoy all the basketball and hockey. Thanks for having me. If you want some more thoughts from Tom on tonight's NBA Slate, check that out on the Daily ISO on the FanDuel Research podcast feed of FanDuelTV+. I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis. You can follow FanDuel Research on Twitter at FanDuel Research. Wanna thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you. There are bets across Tuesday. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow. This has been Covering the Spread right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network.