 Gwybod ni, mae 24 febwyr. Rwy'n rhan yn 9 am oed yn Llywodraeth, yn ddod i'r ffordd am hynny a adnodd, a'r hoffa'r hoffa'r hoffa'r hoffa wedi'i cyflym o'r rhwng i Llywodraeth. Diolch i'r hoffa i'w syniad, ac yn y byddai o'r hoffa o bobl eu hwyl yn dyfodig yma, rwy'n rhoi'n rhoi'r hoffa, o'r hoffa sydd wedi'i rŵn yn ei gweithio yma. Fyn yw'r rhai ddweud, y ffordd, y gallwn i'n waith ar y cyfnod yn cael eu genedleth, y ffiliwyd ac oes i'r gweithio, ond ym mwyaf ar y cwmhlydd, ac mae'r gweithio yn y gwaith yn y llai, fel yw'r gweithio'n i'n gwybod. Ac rwy'n meddwl i'w amdano hyn, while the humanitarian side of things is certainly obviously the most important, what I want to do is just kind of step away and have a look at how markets have behaved as a result of this, and I want to talk about what might happen next in terms of market reaction. Obviously trying to predict what might happen next from a sort of conflict point of view is incredibly difficult, but just a quick update on some of the developments that you'll have already known about, And I'm just looking at my chart actually before I run through those, select the chart on the far right. Is the rubble, which just fell off a cliff overnight as things escalated. It's actually rebounding pretty sharply here. You're not quite seeing the same rebound. Let's move over to the Dax, obviously more impacted and let's say US stock. So this is the Dax where we were heavy into the client last night anyway, but obviously a sharp extension lower. When we bounced a little bit and stabilizing, I've got It is at the bottom left and that has jumped significantly higher. I will go through these figures in a minute. Bitcoin on the bottom right, gold also that is punched pretty strongly higher. Let's take a step back and remind you what the developments are. Overnight according to reports and a lot of these are western reports I might add. ond bach o ymryd aliwch, myfawr, y mhwn o'r hwnnw, ac sy'n meddwl drws i ddweud ar ddweud obydd uchraedd o Gymru ym Gwrthod Nôr. Ac, roeddwn i'n gwneud hynny, gallwn i'n gwneud yn cymryd yn ddod, bobl yn˜an o'r rymes eu bod arall yr amser, yn ymdod, i gweithio'r jagaith, ym weithio, felly, dyma'r rymes drws i'n gwneud ar ddweud a'r drws i'n cwrwm ar ei maen nhw, yn y maintenant cymdeithasol eich hiwydau a'r fawr o'r fawr o'r fawr o'r fawr o'r fawr o'r ymgyrchol i'r Ucraniau, bob yn cael gwybodol iawn o'r fawr o'r cymdeithas. Y rheswedd yna dwi'n gweld roedd Rusiau yw'r fawr, byddai'n cyfnod o'r ddweud o'r ddechisio'r ddaeth bwyd, sydd wedi'u gydweithio'r llyfrig o'r rheswedd ar y ddolygu Rusiau a'r Ukrainiau yn y rheswedd yma. Felly mae'n gwybodol i'ch ymdweud yw'r Putin e'n gweld, By wishy a'n amser y Cymru a'r uwch yn 2014. Mae'n ffordd i'r ddechrau na'r ysgolwyd o'r dechrau teblu am y dyfodol yn Pwtyn a'r ymdyn nhw ydw i wneud yw ei fod yn y syniadau rai stwybaer ymdangos eich�� chi cwm yn, i wneud arno gyllideb i gael ran o'r ysgolwyd. Ond, rwy'n gychwyn i'w rai cyfletoedd y bwrdd ar y grwyddo yn Bellaru ac rwyf wedi cyfletoedd ac nid o gyllid i'r oedd y bwrdd ac sy'n dod i ddylai iawn drafod o'r borth. Ac iddyn nhw i ddweud o syniad. Nw'n gweithio efallai gwneud tarol ac archryffod ac i wneud i anyodnaeth. A oedd yn gwneud y troes yllafeth o'r rulleydd o'r ddechrau a'r ddod o'i ddweud o'r ddoes. Rydyn ni'n imbryd fel y troes o'r fforddau a dywed Syniad o'r ddod o'r wneud o'r wneud. A mae'n rhoi hyffordd dod i'r ddod o'r ddod o'i ddod o'r bobl yma, three fronts and I think ultimately that's why the western media particularly financial markets are alarmed this morning. If I go back to the charts I mean other stuff that I guess has got the western media pretty riled up and you're getting a lot of sensationalist headlines like full on invasion of Ukraine. I mean what's happened the roads coming out of Kiev have been gridlocked overnight civilians are trying to flee the capital. Apparently in Kiev before dawn this morning some financial times reporters heard explosions apparently there's air raid sirens going off in Kiev I think that's what's really got the media riled up here because they're worried this is actually a full-on attack including a move to try and secure Kiev. There's been a lot of missile strikes around a dozen or so airfields as the Russians look to try and disable airfields across Ukraine and that's across the Ukraine and that's including Kiev's airport Borisville so also facilities in the Black Sea you know the city of Odessa airports around there being targeted as well. This is what Putin said early this morning before the move into the country he said we seek to denazify Ukraine and defend victims of genocide despite there being no evidence of such crimes warned other countries against the temptation of meddling in the ongoing events and said Russia's response would lead to consequences that you have never encountered in your history. So obviously very aggressive you know very when you're reading them quite obviously very worrying very sensationalist rhetoric I want to just take a step back here and maybe the ruble is going to help me in my line of argument and I want to just make it clear this is a very live situation and obviously in a live situation of this significance markets can turn and react incredibly powerfully and from a risk management point of view this is about as hard as it gets okay. I mean markets have panets this morning probably the best example the rubles dropped to an all-time low against the dollar down about 10% overnight if I go to a daily chart here you'll see the daily candle you know just taking out that low we have back in January and it's just dropped through the floor although rebounding now I would say other sensational numbers are things like the russian stock exchange is down 45% oil's an important one that's spiked up to a new another new seven-year high Brent crews above 100 bucks by the way I think topped out at 103 I'm showing you WTI crew down the bottom left here and actually the commodity complex more generally is well-bid in certain pockets so oil for sure up 7% natural gas up five or six percent you've got stuff like other commodities like wheat for example where we know Russia's the largest exporter of wheat the Ukraine's the second largest exporter of wheat in the world that is. Wheat's up 6% got stuff like palm oil and soybeans are up 5% and 7% respectively palladium is up 5% aluminium is up 5% all of these commodities where Russia is quite a key global producer are obviously showing some pretty sharp upsides here from a safe haven point of view well gold is a good example which has been pretty slow to kind of get going I would say this year having lagged around down the 1800 handle despite things like Omicron and things like that but this is really woken gold up and certainly over the last couple of weeks it's been well bit but a powerful move here as we spike back up above 1900 dollars we're going to a weekly chart to give you context 1900 is a pretty important price point because that was the high that we saw in right in the middle of 2021 okay so an important move technically here on gold what's happening on stuff like bitcoin well bitcoin's had a seemingly pretty positive correlation between well between it and stocks let's say crypto and stocks have had a positive correlation certainly that's been the case as you've seen this big sell-off as the Russian Ukraine crisis has escalated what's interesting for me is it may be this correlation is just breaking down a little bit even though we did get a big move lower last night I will point out the key level mind so before I get too carried away with my theory that the correlation might have broken down I don't think it's broken down I think it's weakened the key level for bitcoin of course is the lower the year that was set back on the 24th of jam and the move last night was a move down but not quite down to that level but that's a key line to be looking out for so I think what's important and I've traded through these events many times and I guess the closest example would be the Crimea annexation that took place back in 2014 and what I would say there is it feels quite similar in the one hand where Russia piled into Crimea we were worried about a full invasion of the Ukraine but actually it was Putin's strategy was just to take Crimea and then kind of step back I think what's happened here is because the western sanctions were particularly onerous that they rolled out earlier this week I think that's the signal for Putin to get in here I still believe that his endgame is just annexing these eastern regions I hope that is the case obviously any kind of movement of Russian troops properly rolling into Kiev means my theory is wrong so we do need to be looking out for that and that's the worst case scenario from a global market sentiment point of view if you if today we're going to see tanks in Kiev then sure I think these markets whilst they look to have just kind of bounced and perhaps back to finish with that ruble they look to have bounced a little bit here making up maybe half of the losses any kind of tanks in Kiev and I think you got another way to the downside if there are no tanks in Kiev by the end of today then maybe things can settle the west are going to come out fighting in terms of threatening more aggressive sanctions of course and then we'll have to see but look if you're trading this be careful volatility is extreme and you've got to be all over those news channels and making sure you're fully up to date second by second as this very live situation unfolds okay that's a quick update from our side guys good luck