 How long is this going to last? Welcome to What the Up is Going on in Latin America and the Caribbean, a popular resistance broadcast of hot news out of the region. In partnership with Alliance for Global Justice, Black Alliance for Peace, Haiti Americas Team, Code Pink, Common Frontiers, Council on Hemispheric Affairs, Friends of Latin America, Interreligious Task Force on Central America, Massachusetts Peace Action, Task Force on the Americas, and Venezuela Analysis. We broadcast Thursdays at 4.30 p.m. Pacific, 7.30 p.m. Eastern, right here on YouTube Live, including channels for the Convo Couch, Popular Resistance, Code Pink, and Alliance for Global Justice. Post broadcast recordings can be found at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Telegram, redindymedia.com, and now under Podcasts at PopularResistance.org. Today's episode, Ecuador's presidential election heads to a second round in October. Our guest joining us from Ecuador today is Pilar Troya, and I'm just honored that she can join us for this episode. She is an Ecuadorian feminist anthropologist. Her main areas of interest are social public policy, especially concerning gender equality and the feminist movement. She has served as an advisor to the Ministry of National Planning and as an advisor and deputy minister, excuse me, to the Ministry of Higher Education, Science, and Technology of Ecuador. She is also a researcher at Tricontinental Institute for Social Research. So before I have her join us, I want to just give all of you just a really quick background. I'm sure most of the audience are aware of what happened on Sunday, August 20th in Ecuador. But let's just give you a brief refresher. So the results of the SNAP presidential elections on the 20th. Luisa Gonzales of the Movimiento Revolucione Siodudana Party on Sunday took a lead in the first round of Ecuador's presidential and legislative elections, which have been marred by political assassinations as the Andean nation struggles with the wave of violence that has brought homicide rates under the current LASO administration to record levels. Gonzales is set to face the surprise second place finisher, Daniel Noboa, in a runoff election in October, according to the National Electoral Council of Ecuador as neither candidate won more than 50% of the ballot. So welcome, Pilar. So nice to have you with us. Thank you for inviting me. It's very nice to be here. So maybe we should start with what technically happened on Sunday, the 20th with the presidential first round election results. And then we should maybe give the audience a really good background as to how these SNAP elections came about and all the violence associated with these elections and why. Yeah, well, it's going to be a bit long then, but let's start. On Sunday, what happened for the second place was a surprise. One of the reasons, a simple one that explained the surprise for most of us is the fact that it's prohibited to publish surveys 10 days before the election. The theory behind is you don't want an influence election. But the people who had access to those surveys were well aware that what was going to happen because it's not that you can produce surveys. You just cannot disseminate or publish them. And it was a surprise for the rest of us because things changed literally over the last week. Of course, there was always a front runner and that never changed. Luisa Gonzales from the revolution that will be the translation of Movimiento Revolución Ciudadana. But the second place was always contested, even the third and the fourth. Every survey that we get to know up until 10 days before the election was at different positions for the other candidates. So it was always pretty close because there was lots of people undecided. Even the last poll published when it was still possible had like, I think 17% of people still undecided. That is a lot of people in a country were voting mandatory. So everyone has to vote. Then what happened also in these elections is that everything changed when one of the presidential candidates, Fernando Villavicencio, was assassinated. And the people took some time to process that assassination and well, before getting into how it was processed and why we end up with Lani and Novoa as the second runner. It's worth remembering that the country is in an economical, political and violence crisis, I would say, the price to a violent. There's an unstoppable tide of violence that began a few years ago, but it's been way worse over the last year and a half, I would say. For you to have an idea in 2017, the rate of violent murders was 5 per 100,000 inhabitants. That was among the lowest in the region, similar to Chile and Uruguay. By the end of 2022, it was 23. And right now some people are saying maybe around 35 and that can reach 40 by the end of the year. That is worse than Brazil, similar to Colombia and Mexico. And only Honduras will be sadly worse in this global statistic. There was not only that candidate that was assassinated, there were like three or two or three other people, most notably two from the Citizen Revolution, one newly elected mayor in Manta, the second biggest port that happened like more than a month ago and a campaign organizer, Peter Vermeo, he was also here. Clearly, police is losing the war with the local gangs that are related to rival Mexican cartels. That's what we know. The business model of these gangs is distorting money and kidnapping people who refuse to pay. So not only wealthy people are caught up in this web, ordinary people also because they extort even in the poor neighborhoods from little money, it happens to everyone. Those gangs are well-armed, well-organized and usually step ahead of the police. That is like a short-term thing that is happening right now. But in the long-term perspective, Ecuador started applying neoliberal policies not with last but with Moreno's government back in 2017 after he betrayed the party and all the government plans he was elected for. So those administrations are more or less the same thing from the point of view of the type of policies they apply. Let me just interrupt for the audience. Lenin Moreno was a successor to Rafael Correa's government and was supposedly going to continue carrying out those same policies and was a traitor to the party and the political process. So sorry, just thank you. No, it's fine. So I see that those two administrations that are doing more or less the same thing. So they start investing less and less in guaranteeing basic rights of the population and investing less in the government. So the fact that, for instance, there's an estimation that now they are investing 3 billion less in security than what was being invested during Correa's government. 3 billion for a small country like Ecuador is a lot of money. And the fact that they were doing this, like reducing the investment in security at the same time that the gangs were getting stronger, there's another factor is that when the peace agreements were signed in 2016 with Colombia that left in our border a lot of small militia kind groups, like paramilitary small groups. And there was no real process to contain them. Before the peace agreements, FARC used Ecuador as a place to rest as some kind of retreat. They don't want to get into fights with the Ecuadorian authorities. So they control that border in a way that they won't allow many criminal activities happen. So when that peace agreement was signed, there are people who wanted to, out of guerrilla, wanted to become criminals and that those were never controlled. That's another factor that is related. But of course, the government also reduced the investment in health, in education, in everything. That creates unemployment and unemployment. It's an opportunity for people for getting into criminal activities again. So it's not just the fact that the cartons were changing its traffic and routes. Ecuador has always been a road for drug trafficking, but now it's also becoming a drug storage site. And the shipping of drugs from Ecuadorian ports have greatly increased. Some people say that it's the third place where they are catching cocaine right now. Even if we don't produce cocaine from both Colombian groups, it's being shipped to Ecuador right now. But when that is happening, if the government stops investing in plastic rights and stops investing in security, of course, you are creating a scenario for increase in crimes and violence. And what has been the response from those governments is like states of emergency that have done little to nothing and also lately reduced the requisites for current fire arms. Like the message was you can arm yourself because we are not able to protect. That's what the population felt. Of course, the COVID-19 pandemic also contributed because the specialists said disrupted the narcotrafficking route, so they decided to use Ecuador more consistently. And of course, it was a good spot because they saw what was a weak government. There are many people, many links of last with different types of corrosion. On the one hand, the thing why he was almost in pitch, we will go back to that. But there are also links with the Albanian mafia. And with other narco groups, let's say, those were in different reports that were leaked. Some reports made even by the Ecuadorian police. And there's a crime that is, I think it's important to remember because a close ally of Lasso was assassinated before he was called to testify in one of those cases. And probably his murder was related to that mafia association. Lasso is also mentioned in Pandora Papers, in Panama Papers. So there are many links of himself and his administration and close allies with different networks of corruption and criminal activity. So Lasso was about to be in pitch. And for the people to understand, I think this is very important also that Villa Vicencio, the candidate that was killed, he was the president of the inquiry commission in the parliament. He called the Parliament National Assembly. He was the president of that commission and he was trying to save Lasso by any means necessary. The moment he realized he was not going to be able to save Lasso at the level of the commission that had to produce a report to be presented to the full chamber, he resigned from the commission. So there are some people thinking that Villa Vicencio was kind of left and he was fighting corruption. He was in right wing and he was fighting some kind of corruption very selectively. In the same way we have seen Lofer being done all over Latin America. He wasn't going after Lasso and all the things that I have mentioned, you have to start looking at the internet. You can do a Google search and you will find many references to the things I just said. He wasn't investigating that. He was defending Lasso but he was going after all the people close or allies of the citizen revolution and in general parts of the land. So for me it was a fake fight against corruption. It was based on Lofer. That was what Villa Vicencio was doing. But he is still creating a scenario where the mainstream media and all the political opposition start saying that Korea was responsible. Which is what they always say. No matter what happens, Korea is the country. Korea is to be blamed. He did it. No matter what, everything is his fault even if he has not been in the country for like seven years. And the government has not been alive to the citizen revolution since I would say October 2017 if you want to be precise. So that assassination provoked Luisa Gonzalez and Andres Arauz that is the runners for president and vice president to lose votes actually. Because of that narrative around Korea being the culprit which has no sense because since Villa Vicencio was more aligned to the right clearly. It was less vote, sorry less runner in the right that is worse for the left because the right has become stronger with less runner. So the idea that Korea has anything to do with that assassination is frankly ridiculous because it doesn't make sense even from a perverse tactical point of view. I may say. So, but of course after the assassination everyone is surprised you have never had such a thing in Ecuador that they kill a presidential candidate as far as I can tell. And Novoa, who is the son of the richest man of Ecuador, his father is Alvaro Novoa in the business of exporting bananas. He is not was not so well known, but he had a good participation in the debate and he assumed a position that like putting himself apart from that big division that we have in Ecuador between who is in favor of Korea's ideals, you would say, and who is against. That's a huge divide happens in a very similar way in Brazil and in Argentina. Who are in favor of Kitchener in Argentina and who are against, who are in favor of Lula here in Brazil and who are against. This is a very similar divide, but he took a step aside from that polarization. People who know about electoral campaigns said that that won votes for him. Luisa Gonzalez, we have to acknowledge that even if her position is the most progressive work to the left. He didn't have a good participation in the debate. And the other thing that helps Novoa be in the second in the ballot is the fact that he's perceived as new. Even if he's not that new, he was part of the National Assembly. He was a congressman, briefly, the congress that was just closed for then it's like a year and a half, but he's seen as new, still kind of kind of outsider in that sense. And he is married to a social media influencer. So he has a good strategy on social media and of course all the money in the world to run his campaign. He's not short of money running his campaign and it seems he gained the most votes among young people, which is really, really sad. Because in political and ideological terms, he will only continue what Lasso and Moreno have done so far, because they don't believe in the need of government and state protecting basic rights, providing housing, health, education for the people. They believe the state is only their tool for making more money regardless of anything else. In that sense, another thing that happened on Sunday that is interesting is that Ecuadorians vote in favor of preserving the environment. There were two different questions asked at the same time of the election, one to keep, two referendums, one to keep the oil in the ground in the area in the southern part of Ecuadorian Amazon in an area called Yasuni ITT. And the other was a local referendum just for the Quito, the municipality of Quito to stop all forms of mining in a biome called Chocoandino, that is exclusive of the north of Ecuador and the south of Colombia. And those are interesting steps in the sense that we need to engage in every day from all that is left. But it will be hard for any new government because they will lose money from oil exploitation and they will have to pay for the removal of all the equipment and everything that was already there in a part of that, in part of that area in the Amazon because oil has been exploited there since at least two or three years. Wow, so I can't, I've got a ton of notes here. I guess first, my first impression in listening to the history running up from Rafael Correa's final administration through Moreno Lasso and Sunday's first round elections has had almost scenes in listening to you that this is just my my impression for the audience that, you know, the crime, the destabilization of the country was intentional. I mean, just to undo so much and or not resolve intentionally not resolve things going forward, it just, it gets incredible, actually sad, actually. And then, just for the audience arouse the vice presidential candidate arouse he was the presidential candidate in April of 2021. Correct. Yeah, just, I was actually there for those elections as an observer. And what else I guess let's talk a little bit about. Oh, with the regional elections earlier this year you mentioned that that an RC can't make mayor on the newly elected mayor was assassinated. This was a huge turnaround in the country to see the come back in places like Guayaquil and I mean for people like me that was pretty exciting to see because it had been, you know, some pretty big wins in the regional elections. And I had forgotten about the mayoral assassination. I'm sorry, I had forgotten about that. I mean, you've said there's a split in the country I think it's really, really clear what's, what's trying to re percolate and pretty strongly, and then the forces that are trying to keep, you know, a progressive government down to really keep. And I would argue the destabilization and I think we see this in the states to the complete destabilization of education and healthcare and infrastructure is really to keep, you know, a really harsh neoliberal model in place. And there's very few there's a very small percentage of people that that benefit from that that system but it's, it's really harsh and not just an Ecuador, regarding the two referendums about the mining and the oil. Those are kind of tricky, I think, because there's so much of the global south that is trying to keep natural resources in the country, not stop extraction, but use the extraction industries to create manufacturing and and the exportation of finished products at home versus a share neocolonial model where the natural resources just get extracted and, and are for the benefit of principally the global north. But it's, it's tough to, I mean I think a lot of us who would say well environmentally it's great. But how do you replace those economies, they can't be replaced overnight. And I think you said it's going to be tough for the for an incoming government. It's going to be tough if the incoming government is on the left. That means if Luisa Gonzalez and Revolution Ciudadana wins, because they will, they will try its best to invest in the people and develop the country, manufacture the country or the right. There is no issue because they don't want the state to invest in the people. So if they have the money that we say oh we have no money, but we will pay or debt to the IMF, not even not even on time, ahead of time, like they did during the pandemic when people were literally dying on the streets, they were paying the external debt instead of helping the people. And yeah, there's no easy way out and the other part, the other thing that we have to be clear that it's a small portion of the Amazon is not at a big part. There has been several attempts to make it otherwise doing for the administration. There was a proposal for the international community to pay to Ecuador for keeping the oil in the ground, but it was like we needed something around 350 US million dollars per year during, I don't remember, 10 years, something like that. And of course, the international community didn't contribute. There was a whole process, lots of negotiation, but we never reached a very tiny part of that amount and then it was decided that it should be exploited. But there was a movement, civil society, I would say movement that never stopped in trying to approve this proposal, that is a really old idea that was created by civil society around keeping the oil in the ground. Yeah, it was brilliant. And it really called the world just, you know, what do we want as a species? And it didn't happen. It was very sad. Yeah, it's very difficult. And well, about the local elections, it was an important turn in the direction that the whole country was going that seemed to be totally neoliberal. Yeah, Revolución Ciudadana won the main cities, the main provinces as well. Even our government is not federal, so the authorities of the provinces don't have that much authority as a governor in a federal government. But even though it's important, but I also like the fact that our runners, but one are not fascists, because that was one thing that I was scared of, like having someone similar to your Trump, Brazil's Bolsonaro or the new famous gay in Argentina, Millet. So we had our own similar to those called Jan Topik, who said he was part of the Lejeune fan says he was the French Legion. He wanted to arm each and every citizen as a solution to the tide of violence. It was terrible. And I was afraid because that's the way populations normally react. If you are suffering lots of violence and you feel you're under threat all the time, you want to use violence again to counteract that we are the violence that you are experiencing. But he was left out and that has to do with the assassination and I'm a bit hopeful because finally we are choosing between the normal right and a fascist right so we don't have a fascist in the second round. But that doesn't change what you also mentioned. The fact that the way they are doing things, the lack of control over violence, the lack of interest, it seems to control the criminality, the narcotrafficking and everything. Maybe it's signaling that they are taking a path of trying to make the neoliberal policies stronger throughout the story. It's a very authoritarian way of having a neoliberal policy in place and crashing all types of resistance because politically another conclusion that is very sad is that there is no one representing the huge popular uprisings that happened in 2019 and in 2022. So I would say that out of those two big protests, the one in 2019 probably the biggest ever in Ecuador or at least the biggest in the last 50 years for sure. And the one in 2022 was also very big. But then what happens? The political party that should represent the indigenous movement that was always on the lead on those uprisings. The coup is the name of that political party was already more on the right than anything and they prevented the first attempt to impeach last right after the protests in June 2022. So he wasn't impeached then and he was saved. He partially believed that part of it. They did it part of that party. They didn't want to vote right now again for the impeachment. They were against the impeachment. So it's pretty sad because the candidate that should have been the candidate of that process and of the indigenous movement he couldn't run or Leonidas Issa because he requested that the party expel those who have allied with Lasso's with Aspa Chacuti. So the most progressive option, of course, is Liza González. It's important to know that they are just part of a party, a group of people that have worked before in the state and have experienced about how to do things in favor of the majority and not just for the few. And maybe the only political gain out of those big rebellions and have a fascist in a relevant position. But how long will it last in the worst scenario if Nogua gets elected? He continues the same policies because I'm sure he will continue doing more or less the same or going strong in the path of arming the population. And violence and criminality continues. Then that is fertile ground for beating our own new faces. And that worries me right now. Yeah, it's almost, and you see this in a number of countries by own as well. I mean, I'm talking with you in the audience today from Venezuela, but when in the states you just see the free flow of weapons among citizens, the destabilization through drug abuse and lack of education, lack of economic opportunity. It seems like an intentional destabilization to make a nation a total police state because it will require police that are trained and armed at the level of a military to maintain stability if things get so bad. And it's very, it's really disconcerting. And then to see anybody, I'm sorry, go ahead. I was about to say one thing that I was forgetting and I think it's important to remember about the police precisely. Police is terribly corrupted. And it seems that even part of the top is in collusion right now with drug traffickers. There was a scandal on December 2021 when the US ambassador to Ecuador said that they refuse providing visas for five. I think there were four or five police generals because they know of their links with drug trafficking. That is like highly suspicious. The death of Villa Vicencio, it seems to be, it seems that it couldn't have been done without the cooperation of the police, like the way he was taken out of the place where he was, the way his guards that were from the police behaved. All are signals of negligence. And the wife and the sister of Villa Vicencio are accusing directly the police and the state of the killing. They are not accusing Korea, at least. And there was another thing that for me was terrible at some point that Korea was threatened by a gangster. I forgot his name right now. But they were requesting that he was transferred to a maximum security prison. And before he was transferred, he gave a press conference inside the prison where he was escorted by a police intelligence officer. This is like what levels of corruption inside the police are we talking about to have those things happening. So that is also a very sad and worrying signal that we can see right now. So what do you see happening from, you know, when are the second round is 15 October? Is that correct? I mean, I know it's hard to say what's going to happen. Well, it's hard to believe some of this stuff that's happened prior to the 20th of this month. Yeah. Yeah. Well, first let's hope there's no more killing, no more terrible violence. I'm saying let's hope because it doesn't seem like last year's government is going to do anything about it. Like he will continue letting things to happen. On the other hand, I believe that Luisa Gonzalez needs a better training for the debate. There will be a debate and that's when he, Novoa Daniel clearly won. And I hope the people get to understand that Novoa will only continue this in the same path than Moreno and Las Vegas. You are changing a bunker with a banana business guy. There's no change at all in that. There's very rich people that we're only careful when Luisa Gonzalez is a young lawyer with experience in the government for quite some time. She worked several years in Korea and she for sure will push forward an agenda that is progressive, that is guaranteeing rights for the people that we try also to ensure the sovereignty of Ecuador. And that is important also right now because if we get aggressive government in Ecuador, the balance of forces, the context in the Andean region is going to change because then there's only Peru left aligned with the imperialist US policies. There will be a lot. It will be very interesting to see that. So that's why there's also the elites have no interest in having progressive government because also the alignment in the rest of Latin America in this new think type. But even if it's less progressive than the prior one still presents a challenge for the interests of the local voodoo seas and the transnational capital. You know, you mentioned the word sovereignty, Ecuador, you know, hopefully remaining voting to remain a sovereign nation. That to me is the key word phrase being for I would, for all of Latin America and the Caribbean. I have the opportunity to be an election observer starting in October of 2020 in Bolivia and all the way through 2021 including in Ecuador. And through Columbia in May of 2022 and for me personally, the election results really showed populations voting for governments that would ensure national sovereignty, natural resource sovereignty, and an economic plan that would benefit the majority of the citizens. And of course those economic plans are a broad spectrum from, you know, social democrat to revolutionary leftist, but so many people really understand the word sovereignty as voters as participants and want to recapture that or in short it's continue it's continue existence and I just, I really I have to say I agree with you about Ecuador and it's going to be so critical as an Andean nation to, to move center left. And, yeah, because what they have been doing. Oh, go ahead. I'm sorry. Yeah. No, I'm sorry. Another thing that they have been doing and I was forgetting is modern sign and agreement with the US that is secret. So we don't know exactly what was signed in Ecuador. The US military bases are prohibited in our constitution in 2008 the constitution drafted during Korea's mandate. And so he signed an agreement allowing US military and agents to use our airports and ports. Again, it's secret so we don't know exactly what it entails. But people tell, yeah, you see US military getting in and out without any check that is that's been happening since 2018. And in May this year I think last year signed an agreement with that is an a reduction in external debt, a time of reduction with a company that in the end many people are saying is almost a surrendering in Ecuador sovereignty in the Galapagos Islands in exchange for a veto of external debt. So that's the kind of sale of governments we get in with these people and now that I remember his father who he run for president like five times. The closest he was with Korea he got to the second round and he lost with Korea that was the closest after that he always had very few votes. But one of his proposals that he repeated, not in the last campaign but in the first two probably was that he wants to turn like the whole country in a free economic zone like Oh wow. He wasn't that kind of thing that was his big proposal for the development of that one. And now his son is running. Even if he is much more clever than his father and won't be saying such things, I'm sure, because same as lasso lasso one lying a lot saying he was going to lose. There are a lot of things that he finally never did. He will be lying a lot of course but that's where he comes from. Yeah. Wow. It's. It's so complicated and so layered. And it's. It's amazing and I'm so happy that election day went so smoothly, given everything that you've described to us. I mean all of you must be so, so pleased with that. It just did at least from the outside looking in it went so smoothly I know when the voting in the diaspora started there was some question as to some of the technical issues associated with voting but that seems to have been cleared up early on. So, I think it just for the audience I think this is really important and you can explain this and more detail that for Ecuadorians living in the exterior. They are allowed to vote in the embassies and consulates. They also, which most countries are do allow that, but also they have a representative in the legislature, which is really unique to are so just, you know, you're living in the exterior you still have a legislative representative for your interest back home. It's very unique to Ecuador and that was something that Rafael Korea's government introduced. Yeah, because of the huge diaspora, we still we have like 400,000 people registered to vote. They were registered to vote at the point when voting was on paper right now when you live abroad, I live abroad, voting was online process, and it was pretty difficult I managed to vote but it wasn't it was hard, but only 85,000 people around that registered to vote online. Let's hope this time we get more people registered to vote online because those votes are mostly progressive. Yeah, we got two representatives from the from I think two from North America because that's where the majority of the migrant population are. Then we have two from Europe and Asia, and two others from Africa, South America and Oceania, I think, so I think in total from the diaspora. That I mean that's just so great that's so empowering for people to know that they can still participate back home. That's just really, it's a really wonderful thing on a lot of levels. So, so I hope you are that you can come back in October, and we can talk about the October 15 results because, as you said it's going to be so important for the Andean region, the the hemisphere in general, I would add as well. So it'd be really wonderful to have a follow up conversation after the second round with you I'm so thankful for your time today. That's been really happy to work with you. I come back gladly. Thank you for inviting me and let's hope the progressive wave continues. So, well, all of our, all of our good thoughts, your way. We'll keep our fingers crossed and I look forward to our follow up conversation. And for the audience I want to just remind you you've been watching what the F is going on in Latin America and the Caribbean, we're a popular resistance broadcast. You can find us on YouTube live every Thursday for 30pm Pacific 730pm Eastern, and we're now on four YouTube channels, including our newest broadcast partner Alliance for global justice code pink the Convo couch and popular resistance and post broadcast recordings can be found on Google Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcast. So thank you again Polar and thank you to the audience we will see you next week.