 All right, we can get started so welcome back and also thank you for coming So please by the way just For some practical reasons the madam secretary general needs to get in contact with the delegations Actually, she would like to send emails to each and every one member of the delegations but since she doesn't have this email list and Since not every single member of the delegations show up on at least today She doesn't have this occasion to get their emails, but that will be still practical if the heads of delegations Just write down on a piece of paper, which I believe is being now circulated. Please put your name and country's name and your email address so that Chalak could get in contact with you in due course because evil. I mean the delegations will Keep getting messages from the UN secretary general, right? So this is an important thing and other than that there will be another list Attendance list actually attendance paper that will be circulated. I don't know what it is circulated already now It's there. You John is writing her name Passes to her left. So Again, thank you for coming on such a short notice. I was supposed to be in Cairo right now Attending a meeting Well, that would be nice fine on the Nile Fairmont hotel pretty chic place. Well, I've been there No big deal, but I had reason for cancelling my participation Although it was an important meeting, but I had some other important things to do here I'm just like teaching today and seeing your smiling faces and I hope You think likewise alright, so we had started talking about the Situation in Iraq, I mean we have covered all the 50s 60s 70s and 80s and with of course not every single event that Has taken place. I mean this is not a course on history as I always repeat But major developments starting from the 40s and 50s All through the 60s and 70s have been covered and you should be able to at least make an analysis of the situation And when it is so required so Now we have come to the 1990s and as I said and you also Said that two major developments have shaken the foundations of international system one was of course Iraq's invasion of Kuwait which later on turned into a call for intervention into the region by mainly the United States and the coalition powers and Soon later soon after that there was Another groundbreaking development, which was the collapse of the Soviet Union So all these developments have of course forced countries in the region and in the entire world to revise their foreign and security policies to Adjust their Priorities adopt themselves to the new developments because some of the alliances just disappear Just like Warsaw Pact as soon as sort of as early as the late 1990s late 1980s 8990 Warsaw Pact just disappeared and we have also witnessed in another part of the world again the reunification of The two Germanis and separation of Czechoslovakia Czech Republic and Slovak Slovakia, so these were important developments as I said and the disintegration of the Soviet Union had many Consequences and implications for the rest of the world not in the political sense only but also and maybe more specifically from our perspective was the implications for the security of the region and The entire war because the former Soviet Union was the biggest largest Weapons arsenal of all sorts chemical weapons biological weapons Nectar weapons tens of thousands of them or tens of tons of hundreds of kilograms of Biological agents and tons of chemical agents Etc. So that was the biggest arsenal now I mean when collapse they Soviet authority on top of them sort of were Left to their own devices and that was a pretty scary situation that required a number of measures Some of which were hopefully taken abruptly just on time, but still the huge Soviet arsenal was very difficult to contain from passing into the hands of a Number of states which were aspiring to such weapons as well as non-state actors Which were abundant in the Middle East especially and also in other parts of the world so the the two major developments that I mentioned had Swear consequences for a number of countries one of which of course was and still is and probably in the foreseeable future Will be Turkey and we will also look at this situation from Turkish perspective as to what happened for instance in Iraq and how these Developments have affected Turkey's foreign and security policies back in the 1990s and The early night 2000s and today and what do we see on the horizon as coming in terms of dangerous challenges risks threats And not only for Turkey of course for all the countries in the region Actually, there is a reading in your reading list From United Nations publications national threat perceptions in the Middle East this study was conducted back in mid 1990s and There we can see reactions of course given by scholars and experts or People who work for their governments in the region reactions from Syria Jordan Israel Egypt and Saudi Arabia, so that is a compilation of how the Developments in the in the region in specifically particularly in the Middle East because of Iraqi situation and also The consequence of the collapse of the Soviet Empire which was one of the major polls I mean because the whole international system rested upon this Bipolarity during the Cold War years for a number of decades So it was not an easy thing for all the countries to adjust their foreign policies all of a sudden to these changing circumstances with the disappearance of one of the polls which actually Was very instrumental in Or for some countries just to see this this poll I mean the Soviet Union as a major Sort of support for their foreign policies for instance Syria Iraq I mean as we mentioned when we talk about the 1970s and 80s. We mentioned the role of the Soviet Union In not only wars such as Yom Kippur and remember the Soviet Union threatened Israel With retaliation in kind if Israel really decided to use its nuclear weapons capability and If Israel attacked Egypt Syria with the weapons or other countries with the weapon Russia threatened Israel with Doing the same to Israel. Of course, that will be these were far-fetched scenarios I mean that would or maybe they did not have any practicality, but of course as a matter of politics and the Terrence is one major sort of a strategy in sort of Achieving your goals without major confrontation. I mean because major confrontation means of course Loss of lives and huge damage destruction loss of money and everything so you have to rebuild many things therefore What was of course? Important in the 70s and 80s the role the Soviet Union play for The Syria in Iraq because that was maybe not in the sense that we have seen you know in Central in Eastern Europe in terms of Warsaw packed But this alliance could be no of no less important no less significance for Middle East politics I mean the the alliance relationship between Soviet Union Syria and Iraq and with the disappearance of the Soviet Union of course and With Iraqi situation when Iraq invaded Kuwait. We talked about here all these developments starting with United Nations Security Council, you know convening an emergency meeting just like the one that you will be sort of having here of course not as you have a Security Council body, but as a separate sort of The gathering anyway, we have seen the reaction of the United Nations Security Council by way of Issuing a number of warnings to Iraq in order to withdraw its troops from Kuwait with a view to restoring the peace and stability in the region but that was of course not very Feasible from Iraqi perspective because Probably Saddam Hussein had certain things in mind which he thought he could achieve maybe He wanted to take advantage of some of the developments which had already started to take place in Central Eastern Europe and I mean which paved the way to the collapse of the Warsaw Pact and maybe he thought the world will be so Involving other things that you know, they could they could overlook as to what was happening in Iraq, but that was Absolutely not the situation and the contrary happened and the whole world Confined its attention to the situation in Kuwait Iraq and therefore this war Started I mean after a number of developments that we mentioned here So therefore these these are all important things and when we talk about Iraqi situation here We should not think of this as if it's a matter is a problem one country only no I mean yes, of course what happened in Iraq, of course was very very important many Hundreds of thousands of people civilian women children elderly. I mean lost their lives not because of war itself, but because of the sanctions which were applied on Iraq and yes, the United Nations System or the Charter requires a country to be subject to sanctions if and when That country's leadership did not comply with the established norms and principles or do not pay attention to the Warnings of the international community. So these sanctions were not imposed on Iraq just for fun I mean did nobody impose impose sanctions on other country or sort of Support or complies with the this kind of sanctions just to you know have fun because sanctions Me personally I really don't believe very much in the merit of sanctions And we have seen a number of examples not only here in Iraq, but also in other parts of the world Yes, I mean this is an instrument that needs to be calibrated Carefully and there is therefore this term smart sanctions. I don't know how smart they can be But all in all what we have seen what the world has seen All through these years since 1991 and onwards up until the second war in Iraq in 2003 within a span of like 12 years According to different Sources that are you know the figures vary and we don't have an exact number or we don't have a number that could be Absolutely a hundred percent verified, but yet we have to trust in the studies conducted by a number of Institutions and by a number of Think tanks or resource centers which are independent or to the extent possible independent And there is this talk of one point five million people one and a half million people have lost their lives or have been severely affected from sanctions, especially the children because The sanctions include past almost every single item that one would have to use for his daily Diet or like a milk powder for instance Was sanctioned because well that could be some secondary tertiary Sort of applications of some of the substances in the milk powder for some other stuff with maybe chemical biological related issues Well, if you are so suspicious about every ingredient of every single material then you put sanctions and you think you put your mind at ease and Thinking that these sanctions would not affect anybody's life No, that was absolutely not the situation as I said almost the exact opposite has happened and People did not have access to medication did not have access to other important Things that they would need in their lives and therefore the their living standards which Actually were not at all in good shape. Anyway Even before the war Their living standard deteriorated after the sanctions, so I mean this is something that Just like small you know bits and pieces about the situation in Iraq but what matters from our perspective of course is first of all what happened in Iraq and Then what happened in Iraq how these things that have happened in Iraq affected? the neighboring countries and the greater region and Because there is this talk of greater Middle East Which I believe makes sense to some extent not not entirely and also implications for the rest of the world in terms of Perceptions of ordinary citizen and in any part of the world because when we talk about today I mean I'm gonna go back to Iraq But just to open a parenthesis here as to why Applications or the policies that were pursued with vis-a-vis Iraqi situation by a number of countries you know matters For you know even today's situation for instance For reasons that we will elaborate in a moment The situation with respect to the you know weapons of mass destruction Arsenal of Iraq was according to many was somewhat exaggerated and This exaggeration now and then of course caused a number of concerns misgivings in many parts of the world and today when The number of countries again put forward certain allegations with respect to Iran's nuclear program or nuclear capabilities people make direct references To the situation in Iraq and say look you exaggerated the situation back then in 91 or 2003 in order to invade Iraqi territory now you are exaggerating the situation again Purposefully to invade Iran or to do something to Iran. So therefore I don't trust your allegations I don't buy them. I don't agree with you and I'm not with you So and this is this is so from the bottom in the street men in the street to the top leadership Even in this country or in other countries in the world When it comes to taking decisions, of course countries decisions even in the u.m. Platform May be affected from this kind of perceptions which have been of course somehow manipulated with some of the information whose veracity sort of was Contested and some of them were proven to be wrong. So this is therefore important and therefore When we when you listen to me with respect to Iraqi situation You should understand that it is not only Iraq that we are concerned here But the implications of what happened in Iraq for the rest of the region Of course for Turkey for Syria for Iran for Saudi Arabia for Jordan for Palestine for Israel So I mean it is there are countless number of troubles in the Middle East So maybe you need a two or three semester course to cover all of them in a meaningful matter. So Let me just get a drop of coffee in In the meantime if you think of any questions that you may have or any any point that needs to be clarified. All right Let's remember what we have talked about and I can't see any board markers around as Well, well, just Doesn't matter. Don't worry. We can get grab one from the break Each time we leave here, but somebody takes away anyway so remember this the resolution 687 which was adopted by the United Nations Security Council on I guess third of April Yeah, April 3rd 1991 Resolution 687 and if you would remember we talked about a number of paragraphs in this resolution which when compared to others Make more sense and explain the situation as to what was coming and There is because Remember some of you may have to work for United Nations in the future or for Turkish foreign delegations. I mean the foreign ministry If you enter the foreign ministry, you may be part of the delegations in meetings So one of the first things that you do with the resolutions You go straightly Of course the entry the preambler progress, but also to the progress which start with the sides and also to some issues Which may give you hints about what is what what is coming after that resolution with respect to the situation in the Short-term medium-term and longer term. So this the paragraph 33 Just to remind you and I believe You have this you have access to the internet and you can just by going to the UN website and choosing this Peace and security domain then you go to the Security Council then you go to resolutions then you go to 1991 and Pick up resolution 687 You can see here Declaration of a ceasefire and I explained the situation on a couple of occasions that ceasefire is an interim solution It doesn't put an end to war In terms of achieving a piece of final and ultimate. It's not an ultimate Measure it is an interim measure which puts a halt to fighting to skirmishes to a losses of lives and damage and destruction Which enables the parties to find a political solution by way of mediation by way of I don't know Taking certain steps in order to improve the situation or to correct some of the mistakes a parties may have committed. So What was the mistake that Iraq committed? I mean one major mistake was of course invasion of a neighboring country Which was of course totally unacceptable from the international law perspective Invulability of borders no country can cross the borders of another country and enter into the territory without of course permission Coming from that country for some specific reason and There are not so many examples well Sometimes in some countries the existing regime may be toppled down by a rebel group or by some other you know parts in political factions and some new people may come to The leadership and may ask from another country to come to their territory to help with the new regime To consolidate the position of the new regime vis-à-vis the other parties that they have toppled already Can you think of one example? Well, we have not covered this specific issue here, but of course your ages Are not sufficient enough to remember that something like that because most of you were probably not born yet, but Exactly that is the situation Afghanistan Barbara Carmel and you know comes power and then he invites the Soviet Union to you know put things in order But and in that was in 1979 and of course they had to leave the country after about a decade and in a very miserable condition all right, so This One particular mistake that Iraq did and that was Basically the reason why the United Nations system reacted to Iraq and paid away to this war Finally to this resolution which declared a ceasefire and Iraq was found guilty quote-unquote not only for Violating the sovereignty of Kuwait or invading the Kuwaiti territory Iraq was found guilty Also for having done certain things in the past without of course being caught with impunity and therefore Now that they are in a weak position and not at their country is under the pressure of the International community the international Community thought it would be the best time and it would be appropriate if they also corrected if they corrected the Situation with respect to some of the Mistakes that Iraq committed in the past or some of the violations of its international Commitment, what were these international commitments Iraq was found guilty. I mean at least the jury decided so as such Iraq was found guilty for violating its Obligations under the the treaty on the non-proliferation of the weapons or the MPT the non-proliferation Nectar non-proliferation treaty Iraq was believed to have done certain things wrong and Iraq was believed by many not everybody but by many to have Violated its obligations or to have abused the situation abused some of its rights That were given to him by way of the MPT and by conducting a secret Nectar weapons program Again Iraq was found guilty even though they were not member They were not state a state party to the biological weapons convention Iraq was found guilty again. I when I say guilty court on court There is no such a you know international court in the filing or given a verdict But I'm trying to sort of explain the situation here for doing research as well as manufacturing biological weapons and also extensively Both producing and also using chemical weapons, so and also developing ballistic missiles which all together Pose a big challenge a big threat for its neighbors and for the world and Iraq also was believed to have some connections with some non-state actors In some parts of the world which actually an argument was further elaborated or Used by the United States as a as a reason as a justification for us is entering to war and Enter into into the Iraqi territory for evasion and it is still pretty much the case Yes, a number a large number of American troops have been withdrawn right now But not all of them and even if all of them are withdrawn There will still be influence of the United States for the foreseeable future in the governance of the new regime in Iraq But all in all because of this Be the ceasefire here, which put an end to the fighting This ceasefire Required the correction of Iraq, you know, there is this in the United States must be seen in movies There is this department of corrections or when people when they put people in jail. They think they correct them So if we construct an analogy You know Iraq being you know under Saddam Hussein not today being a guilty person who's Who's you know going to be put in prison needs to be corrected and therefore the Mistakes that Iraq has committed so far were supposed to be corrected by way of imposing not only sanctions, but also applying some measures that would include Destruction removal or rendering harm so fits weapons of mass destruction capability as well as ballistic missiles And of course Ballistic missiles are part of weapons of mass destruction capability because whatever a chemical biological Nectar weapon or warhead you may give up you need a delivery vehicle and ballistic missiles are delivery vehicles for such weapons, so Therefore the purpose of this resolution and specifically the purpose of this paragraph was putting an end to fighting which could cause or claim the lives of many more people and You know cleansing Iraqi Iraq or Iraqi territory from its existing weapons of mass destruction capability So that it doesn't create it doesn't constitute anymore at challenge a threat for its neighbors So therefore this ceasefire was made conditioned upon a number of Issues as has been stated here About provisions and we mentioned rather briefly before we ended the class last Friday that specifically paragraphs Number eight nine and ten are significant Here you can see the United Nations Security Council. It says Decisive that Iraq shall unconditionally accept the destruction removal or rendering rendering harmless of its Of course under international cooperation of all chemical biological weapons and all stocks of agents and all related subsystems and components and all research developed in support manufacturing facilities related to as And both missiles with a range we talk about the reason and the United Nations Security Council although on the one hand decided to dismember in terms of its major capabilities or to Destroy or remove or render harmless the weapons of mass destruction capabilities of Iraq so that it doesn't Create any further doesn't constitute any threat for its neighbors but also the same council did not want Iraq to be sort of a target of its neighbors and To remain at least a minimum deterrent in Iraq so that Its neighbors would not even dare thinking about invading Iraq when it was on in a very vulnerable situation because of the war because of sanctions and also because of all these applications of some of the Inspections things like that. So therefore unscommed the United Nations Special Commission and the IAE were mandated with this task unscommed was given the specific task with respect of destroying removing or rendering harmless of chemical biological weapons and ballistic missiles and IAEA was given the task of Doing the same for its nuclear infrastructure Hopefully and it was so discovered anyway and many people believed already that Iraq did not have nuclear weapons By the time of war nor would it have any such capability? any time soon because in the late 80s and early 1990s even before Iraq invaded Kuwait Iraq was Pronounced as one of the countries that would soon acquire nuclear weapons capability many people in the in academia and in you know international security circles believed some of the reports projecting Or suggesting that Iraq might acquire nuclear weapons capability by the mid or early 1990s So in 88 89 there are some reports Suggesting that Iraq could very well developing weapons by 93 95 So there were some people who really believed in that and of course it is not that easy Well today we can say What happened in knowing that what happened in the past what was true? What was not now we can make comments, but making the late 1980s when the world was still Divided as east and west Though it you know we were coming to an end and the Soviet Union was Losing its power every single day, but still this perception about Iraqi situation or the situation in the Middle East was pretty much Exaggerated but there were reasons for some people to believe that Iraq could very well develop nuclear weapons Not into a distant future. That means early 1990s, but when the IAA went to Iraq IAA inspectors and went to Iraq and went to the facilities that were Associated with the nuclear program civilian and military They have seen that Iraq did of course do a number of things for deviating from the mainstream Exploitation of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, but rather they were aiming at Developing weapons that was this infrastructure, but the scientists technicians within the body of the IAA have figured out that that was Not such an elaborate or sophisticated Infrastructure that would allow Iraq to become a nuclear weapon capable state in a short time so some of the inspectors who have taken part of part in this Inspection missions because they have gone to Iraq. They have gone to enter these facilities They had all their time to look into every single Aspect of the nuclear program of Iraq and they could then figure out that well Iraq did a lot of things and spent a lot of money in the infrastructure as well as in In scientific technological Issues instruments and you know bringing in people from different countries scientists technicians But Iraq was quite far from assembling a nuclear device in the foreseeable future. So therefore In the nuclear infrastructure was not that difficult to deal with and if I'm not mistaken The IAA Wrapped up this job and it's mandate finishes job by 1995 or so. I mean of course from 1991 April and soon after inspection inspectors have started to come to Iraq as well as IAA and within like a period of like four years the nuclear infrastructure was Signed and sealed as being clean. So nothing was left and they either Have withdrawn some of the material some of the Major components they destroyed some of the facilities. So they Actually, IAA made the Iraqi Nuclear infrastructure unusable for weapons purposes period. So they finished their job sign and seal the document and they've gone on so Actually from 95 onwards, I might be a little bit You know mistaken with taste but as far as I remember that was 95 that when they finished their job and they went back home and from then onwards although Iraq was still Under sanctions and Iraq as you should remember the north and south North Lai zones the Kurdish Part and Shi'a part in the south and in the north So but in the in between the two North Lai zones Saddam still had its authority and Again, I am telling you this Based on my conversations with a number of inspectors and friends Or you know people whom I met on different occasions in different forums Who had spent some time in the inspection missions that there were some doubts in their minds About Iraq still being capable or able to maintain a certain network of procurement of not only Some weapons or some weapons related material, but also they were trying to resuscitate the nuclear program Well, I don't know what Saddam Hussein had in mind as to how he could really trust or believe that he would Be able to revive its nuclear program after all this destruction of physical destruction and removal of some of the material That will be indispensable for weapons purposes But maybe He even if he didn't believe or maybe he believed truly Even if he didn't believe he might have wanted to give an image to his own people that he was still empowered and he could do You know things that you know he was still the dictator and he was still the one man The man who was governed in the country. Well, of course under such circumstances the psyche of people might Cause them to do certain things that may not be Meaningful from our perspective. So Iraqi nuclear infrastructure was out of question Especially after the IAE finished a job and that was not the part of story that was further Later on after that a certain point was subject to a lot of controversy a lot of criticism what was subject to Controversy and criticism debate was the job of House come house come United Nations special Commission in Iraq not Of course for things that house come has done and also for things that house come failed to do or was not able to accomplish and It was for every single reason they were at the center of Criticism and all the under the stage lights. All right, let's give a break and after the break will continue with the story of Oscar