 Welcome back. You're still on to the Breakfast on Plus TV Africa, and now to a second discussion. Some troops in Russia's military districts adjacent to Ukraine returned to their bases after completing drills. The Russia Defense Ministry was quoted by the Interfax News Agency as saying a move that could de-escalate a friction between Moscow and the West. This comes following talks between German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. Speaking on Tuesday during a news conference, Putin said he is, quote, ready to work further with the West on security issues to de-escalate tensions over Ukraine, but emphasized the need for the West to heed Russia's main demands. But later on Tuesday, U.S. President Joe Biden cast out on Moscow's claims of a partial withdrawal, saying that 150,000 Russian troops near Ukraine remain in what he called a threatening position, warning that an invasion, quote, remains distinctly possible, end of quote. In a televised address from the White House on Tuesday afternoon, Biden combined a repeated offer of security talks with a warning of severe repercussions if Russia carries out its threat of an attack that the U.S. intelligence has reportedly assessed could take place as early as Wednesday. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said earlier that Wednesday would be a day of unity for the country, urging people to fly flags and sing the national anthem at 10 a.m. Russia has always denied planning to invade Ukraine, saying it can exercise troops on its own territory, as it says sees fit. It has been pressing for a set of security guarantees from the West, including a guarantee that Ukraine will never join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization NATO. Now, what do these developments mean for the situation between Russia and Ukraine? Joining us to analyze this is Dr. Katch Ononijou. He is an international affairs analyst at Dr. Ononijou. Thanks for joining us. Nice to have you. Thank you very much. How were you? The United States intelligence has put it out, and President Joe Biden has televised a speech addressing the world, and they believe that Russia will either invade Ukraine today or will throw missiles into Ukraine today. You heard from the intro there that Ukraine, rather Russia, has pulled out some troops from that, what it calls a mere training exercise after Putin met with the chairman and chancellor. Do you believe that the U.S. intelligence report is true and should be held on to? Well, there are quite a lot of things we know. For a very long time right now, there are crises in Ukraine, an internal civil war in Donetsk and Libya. So you need to look at that, and those are separatist people fighting to link themselves to Russia. It's been going on for very, very long time. The question is, what did Europe do all along while this war raged on? Okay? And what is the intention of the West on a long train? Don't forget the Cuban Missile Crisis. America couldn't accept that Russia should have an ally on its border, and on the issue of Russian demand for guarantees and regards to Ukraine, of course, yes, we know internationally you cannot tell a country not to belong to a committee of friends it feels very comfortable with. But I am aware also that President Biden has stated openly to the Russians that the NATO is not their enemy, and they do not have an intention of putting arsenal and elements on the Russian border. They don't have any intention of bringing Ukraine into NATO very quickly. So what is the problem? This issue is not going to go away. There are guarantees that Russia seeks. Those guarantees look very, very difficult. Yes, they are not very possible for us to respect. If Russia does, as everybody fears, in favor of Ukraine, what will happen? Well, I don't know. It could change human history because of the war, but I also believe nothing also may happen. One, they've taken Crimea. What has happened? Nothing. And they've masked their troops on the borders between Ukraine and Belarus, and also on the Russian border with Ukraine. And that's gotten everybody very, very angry and jittery. So I believe we must not break the long-term engagement with Russia. And I believe that engagement has not been given the kind of relationship and strength and commitment it deserves. Why do I say this? The ongoing crisis in Russia did not start today. The crisis inside Ukraine did not start today. The civil war in Ljubljana and Donetsk did not start today. What did Europe do? Why did Europe not all along find a way to try to ameliorate and bring peace, to do what they are doing right now, yesterday, in order to bring peace in Donetsk and in Ljubljana? So it's only now that we are all beginning to scream, as if this crisis just started yesterday. It didn't start yesterday. It's been on for a very long time. What did the world do all along? The world didn't do anything, and now we are screaming about what Russia wants to do. I think the Ukraine issue, for as far as I'm concerned, is a convent. How will it be resolved? I do not know. But I also believe, I don't see a major crisis coming out of Ukraine. I believe the West will advise Ukraine to go on gently. I believe the West will find a way, because now you have Russian separatists, Russian-speaking people in Ukraine fighting an internal civil war for a very long time. What have we done? We need to look at that. Solve the crisis in Donetsk and Ljubljana if you want to solve the Ukraine crisis. So I believe. Well, Dr. Katya Nunoju, the United States has been accused of trying and backing the Ukraine in this crisis that's ongoing. And some people are saying that the United States has a personal interest to achieve. You can actually see track records in the Middle East. You see that in Yemen, Africa, according to the School of Thoughts. Let's say that the U.S. is strongly behind, and because they have an interest in Russia. Well, not just having an interest in Russia, the U.S. is not very comfortable, which Russia has moved, even with Yemen. Look at the way everybody wants to link the Nordstrom II to the crisis. The Nordstrom II goes through, and Russian gas gets deep into Europe. You can't know to recall that. That means Russia will become permanently embedded into the energy needs of Western Europe. I don't see you removing that. So on the long term, everybody should be careful how they play with Russia in the regards to Ukraine. Now, there is nothing too much if the Russians beg you, don't bring NATO to our borders. And I believe if Russians believe that the West, the United States, seem to want to use the hyphen of the, there will be an invasion, there will be an invasion issue as a strategy to bring its weapons and troops into Ukraine. They could precipitate a Russian action, could not be good for the international order. I believe that is a game, and that's why I have seen and I feel encouraged that President Biden is making public commitments through his speeches that the United States and NATO do not have any intention of bringing troops there or bringing armaments there on the Russian border. That means in Ukraine, I do not know what they are going to do because right now, as we say of the Russian beer, it actually is powerfully bringing down the neck of Ukraine. You can see what's going on. So on both sides, yesterday, Russia said they have removed some of their troops that went there for the military trail. And I believe that to be a payback to the efforts of President Macron, and I thank President Macron for that. But on the long term, this crisis is just started. So what we're beginning to argue about is we seem to be having a network issue with Mr. Khachar Raju. Dr. Raju, can you hear us, please? The Federation. And a lot of those elements are there. Yes, I can hear you. Okay. For those who are wondering, trying to understand the situation, can you tell our viewers why Russia has a problem with Ukraine joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization? Why it feels threatened by that possibility? Well, one, the way the Soviet Union was arranged, each nation had capabilities increased and strengthened in places where they think they have an advantage. In the whole Soviet USSR, apart from Mother Russia, Ukraine was the country where a lot of the military equipment were being done, as you've seen, like it happened in Crimea. That was also part of Ukraine. Russia has taken that back. So there were quite a lot of things that Russia believes that it needs Ukraine for, and doesn't want Ukraine in the hands of the, what do you call it? The West. The natural alliance. Okay. And that's why, I believe, what may allow Ukraine to remain as an independent country. Don't drag Ukraine into nature. If you try that, you will have a Russian reaction. That is what I believe all of us should work towards. Don't try to get Ukraine into nature. Don't also try to get Russia retentive by seeing equipment, elements and truth from other countries put into Ukraine. Whatever it is you want to do to help Ukraine, let it be true diplomatic relationship and negotiations with Russia. If not, Russia may be forced, at least they have shown that they have no problem in getting Ukraine from Belarus or in getting Ukraine from the Russian border. But, Mr. Captain. We don't play jokes. Yeah, Dr. Naju, this is interesting, you know, the fact that you've said, you know, Ukraine is sandwiched in between Belarus and Russia and the dynamics of the history of the USSR with the Ukrainian, you know, region involved in the USSR and all that. So let's look at the mass of troops on the border between Russia and Ukraine. Some school of thought will say this is just a strategic deterrence, you know, going back to what happened between Cuba and the United States of John F. Kennedy, where you had those missiles pointed facing the United States of America from Fidel Castro's camp ready to fire. But that was all in the bid to ensure that some steps were taken or actions were prevented. And so in terms of this idea of strategic deterrence, do you think that, yes, that school of thought is true and Russia really does not intend to throw missiles into Ukraine or invade Ukraine? Russia will forever be interested in Ukraine. So we have to find a way of having Ukraine or being a member of the international community and yet not angering Russia or making Russia feel very uncomfortable about the way Ukraine has to be a special case. Ukraine cannot be a member of the country. Ukraine cannot be like other countries who want to join Russia. But you think they are doing this to just make the change the minds of the NATO allies and to encourage them to step back a bit and say, hey, we are here, but they don't really mean to start going to Ukraine. Well, they will ultimately step back. Russia has shown them reasons why they should step back. Nobody can try that. Don't forget, you're talking about the area that has the suppressible port, the area with Crimea, the area with nuclear submarines and nuclear warheads. You don't want to go there and go to a fight. You don't want to do that for the second world, because if anything goes wrong in Ukraine, it will change the world history. OK, just as we close the conversation down. Now, with all of this, we know that the world is a global village. COVID-19 has actually showed that in different pandemics that we have experienced. Will this actually impact? I mean, with the ongoing crisis right now, the Russia-Ukraine crisis, is there any impact on the globe and on Africa? And Paraventure, you know, Russia decides to invade Ukraine or the other way. What will be the impacts on the entire globe and Africa and Nigeria? I mean, we've been making light jokes behind the scene, talking about missile getting to some parts of the world. Well, if there is a global configuration, of course, everybody gets affected, everybody gets involved, but we don't want that. I believe the immediate impact of the crisis will be the realignment of forces and alliances. Right now, we're already hearing about Russia and China being very sweet with themselves. I don't think the United States like that. So you don't want to play up those things that will suddenly make those who are with Russia to stand up and take a chance against you. So we need to go very gentle, manage this, de-escalate it. De-escalate it. We do not need any crisis in the Ukraine. And don't forget, if you look at the map, which you are showing, you will see that Ukraine is like a very small province right up there beside Russia. In the West, I think they will go there and then have the base. The U.S. must consider how it felt when the Russians came to Cuba and tried to put a base there. The U.S. didn't allow it. So whatever it is that the U.S. didn't want Russia to do in Cuba, the U.S. should, in turn, consider it should not be between the same thing in the Ukraine. If it knows it, you're going to have crisis. Interesting, very interesting analysis from Yucatian, where we'll get to see what happens. Thank you very much. I think Messi's last question was born out of fear. Maybe she feels some some missiles will land in Nigeria. But it reminds us of, you know, the the Operation Desert Storm. I think, no, not Desert Storm, but the first time war between America and the first Gulf War, you know, when George Bush Senior was in charge. And then I remember as a youngster in Nigeria, we're thinking that Saddam Hussein was going to throw some weapons of mass destruction in Nigeria. So we'd see helicopters flying over, you know, military will think, oh, that's Saddam Hussein, you know. So I know where Messi is coming from. But thank you very much for your time, Mr. Dr. Khachan Rajeev. Thank you for having me. Thank you very much. We appreciate your time. All right, Messi, you can you can rest easy. We are we're safe. Well, you never can tell what happens. This weapons are very sophisticated. But we pray that, you know, crisis don't happen. And apart from that, we're hoping that all of the ready events are about to fuel the situation. Let's do it. No, no, because it would affect everybody. However you say it. Well, that's the size of the conversation. If you missed about on any part of it, it's all right to follow us on Facebook, Twitter and on Instagram, but plus TV Africa and lifestyle on YouTube to not forget to subscribe. I am Messi Boko. Have a fantastic Wednesday. And I'm Kofi Bartels. We return tomorrow. Good morning.