 Right. Week two of the Trump rally. We're kicking things off this week on the 21st of November 2016 with the weekly charting analysis with myself Jasper Lawler. Now we've got the risk warnings on the screens. Thank you to please pay attention to those. So things still a little bit political in markets. Over the weekend we had Sarkozy, the ex-president of France falling out of the presidential race for France. One of his ex-prime ministers actually taking his slot. Now I'll turn to the front runner for the French presidential election. Well obviously the big question mark is can Marine Le Pen, from La Fronte Nationale, can she make it three for three in terms of a populist vote after Brexit and Donald Trump getting in? And signs are that maybe she could well do it. Obviously that would be a big focus point and I think it goes some way to explain why we've seen the weakness in the Euro and not just Marine Le Pen but obviously the whole host of elections but you know the Italian referendum obviously. I think that probably nicely explains why Italian stocks notably underperformed last week, the Fizzi Mib was down about 3%, other stock markets slightly positive or maybe even just slightly lower. So a clear underperformance there. Obviously the politics in the US saw a very quick reversal generally being seen as quite positive at the moment and we're still paying attention to the appointments from Donald Trump who is putting into his cabinet. Treasury Secretary is a big one for markets. For Wall Street Insider gets the top spot which is most likely to some extent makes sense because obviously they know the ropes, they know the people to talk to at the big banks, at the big institutions. If someone there gets the nod then that will be well received by markets and a sign that Donald Trump is pulling back from the populist narrative trying to form a more mainstream administration or more just specifically to markets at least putting in someone that's obviously more favourable towards market friendly policies, deregulations and things. Democrats look like they're gearing up to try and oppose the repeal of Dodd-Frank which is the regulations that were put in after the financial crisis to try and stop the risk taking from the banks but obviously they have a minority now so unless there's cross-party support there's probably not too much they can really do. And obviously this week we have the autumn statement in the UK. I'll talk a bit more about that in a minute but let's just get into some of the charts here. So we've just been talking about the Trump effect, quite an extreme chart obviously. We've broken out of the range into record territory in the US today but as I mentioned in my chart forum post here we've now contracted into a very tight range and you can see on the shorter time frame so it's really a triangle formation. Probably got to the point where it's almost past being a useful triangle. It's kind of gone through the apex if you like and so still sort of respecting that upper and lower boundary but I say the lower boundary the upper one I think gave way. So really you want the breakout to happen around here and it's just been grinding out along here so not too much to tell from this. Obviously stock markets have a generally positive bias you know over time they tend to go up more than they go down and that's certainly the case over the last few years. We're still in very much a bullish market you know we're talking about just off record highs here so you know I think you should always think in the context of you know looking for the next break higher but obviously you know the higher we go the bigger the risk of a more serious downturn. Stringle patterns are typically you know they can actually triangles can be both continuations and reversal patterns but you know this is so small in nature you know when you put out to the daily chart it's more of a bull penant and so again the default for that would be a similar move to this but to the top side that would put us you know way up into this sort of 1900 500 plus 19,000 is the big barrier at the moment and what I've mentioned in the the chart forum here is that something I'll be looking out for will be a retest sorry a test first test of the 19,000 mark maybe a push a bit above it into around maybe 1950 before a turn lower and then a break down through the bottom of this consolidation zone and then maybe down to test these old highs back at 18,650 and then maybe more opportunities to the long side at those points so very much kind of considering where the support and resistance areas could be and looking for signs of a short-term reversal in order to play those obviously when you look into record territory very very hard to judge what the resistance can be but we've had a big run-up 19,000 is the big round number we're about to face some people have this triangle pattern teed up ready for a big expansion hire you know that may you know the all the people looking to Dubai on the breakout up here could provide the kind of liquidity for the big money to come in and sell it down just something to be aware of just you know especially if you are back a breakout trader you know that's something that has to be part of your strategy in a way being aware the fact that it could be a false breakout but particularly when you're at a big round number like this it the risk increases of that happening as I mentioned I think probably the biggest driver will be the Trump cabinet appointments but something also to keep in mind and we'll have a look a bit more in detail when we get to the oil chart but we've got the OPEC meeting next week seems to be at a bit of renewed confidence given the language that's coming out of some of the oil ministers that an OPEC cut in production can happen and so if that's the case that also be good for the the energy sector of the stock market and you know that's that's a big component of the Dow and the FTSE talking of the FTSE or the UK 100 as we trade it fall into a bit of consolidation pattern here a little bit hard to judge the way the way this can go a similar sort of analysis I would say to the US stocks well obviously the general long-term bias is higher but we have seen some extreme price action what what would I my takeaway from this extreme election result is I would say default bullish you know to it looks like there was a lot of buying interest in around sort of six five six six hundred six sixty sorry six thousand six hundred tarred area which is you know basically around the bottom of this trading range and all those orders were picked up very quickly on the election night and send the market right back higher again so all these orders sitting down here to me talk of a sort of a general bullish desire to push the market higher but obviously price prices went up so quickly that the people that were buying down here don't want to be buying up here so the markets drifted lower I think just looking for prices and around this this rising trend line in order to send the market higher again that's my default that's what I'm looking for to happen around this trend line if this trend line gives way I'll certainly be a lot more cautious and obviously taking out this extreme election low I think would usher in quite a quite a much more deeper correction and then we have to start looking back at these these peaks back here and and even some of these lows for where that correction could end no real indication at that point that this that could happen but obviously you know when particularly when markets are driven by political events you know you never quite know what's around the corner and you know certainly that's not out of the question whatsoever we do have the obviously the big event this week is the UK autumn statement I put a video together about that it's on our special UK autumn statement page and see if I can bring that up for you that's okay doesn't matter about that autumn statement due this story straight from the CMC markets page there we go and we've got a piece from Michael on the general expectations for it and then a little video here so I encourage you to have a look at that if you've got a few spare minutes with some it's just for some of the more the details on the autumn statement I'm saving you saying the same thing over and over but I think generally you know the big thing that we're looking out for is a sort of change in momentum in terms of fiscal policy away from austerity towards a bit more stimulus just to protect the economy from the effects of Brexit but also just the fact that growth has been pretty sluggish globally it's been better in the UK than most parts of the world parts of the developed world but still looking for fiscal stimulus or fiscal policy at least to kind of take some of the weight away from the the monetary side we'll see that's been pumping up markets for the last few years the low interest rates can the fiscal policy be enough to offset offset the the money that's been sloshing around and pushing markets higher in my opinion no but you know I don't think that's going to be an immediate effect that's going to take a little bit time for that for that phenomenon to play out so we look at Germany our representation of what's going on in Europe still you know if you're regular here and for the chart for the weekly charting analysis we've been looking at the same tedious range for a while now certainly been effective in terms of buying the bottoms and top of it you know probably if you'd had a buy down at the bottom range for the election well I think we mentioned this last time that you know worth having a wider stop or and all canceling your orders around such big events we've we stalled at the top of the range again my expectation just like the other markets is that we will eventually push higher out of this range and when we do we should have a fairly clear idea in terms of a measured measured move as to where the market can go and I would say it will be about this eleven four hundred mark you know given that this this range here and you can say it's about 600 points 600 points and on top of 10 800 puts us in around 11 400 let's switch gears to currencies now the euro has been a great trade I hope some of you been able to catch this has been collapsing but there are signs that not just with the euro that other dollar pairs look like they're they're stalling out of it here so we'll talk about dollar pushing into 14-year highs in terms of the dollar index and we're talking about euro dollar down here at this rising long-term potential trend line here that I mean that's where we're seeing signs of a bounce here and that's around 106 105 is basically the kind of lows that we dealt with in the you know the time that the the ECB first kind of started talking about stimulus and obviously the euro has kind of been in a big 105 to 115 type range since then we're right down obviously at the bottom of that range so obviously if the range is going to be maintained this is the time to be buying it back into the range we've had a sharp move lower obviously scary to buy after a move down like that but you know in terms of you know I'm not necessarily saying it's going to happen again but look you know we've had sharp moves lower that have quickly reversed in the past and we are running into a round number support and rising trend line support so whatever it is that you use in terms of a bullish trigger to get into the market be it a daily candlestick pattern maybe some sort of shorter term price action pattern or maybe just an indicator signal coming out of being oversold you know I think look for some of those at this point because this is a this is a major support area it certainly can give way and this this you know we we certainly could be on the cusp of a really prolonged sharp period of of dollar strength given that the Fed are about to raise rates in December we think but nonetheless you know it is is the fact that the feds raising rates in December such a shocker not really no I mean they were supposed to raise rates all this year and they didn't because the US economy was so weak so you know have things really change that much obviously a lot of this is pricing in higher inflation from the fiscal stimulus but we don't know how much Donald Trump can really push through at the moment so we might be jumping the gun a little bit here if that if we are jumping the gun in terms of when this pronounced dollars dollar strength really kicks in in the long term then then there's a chance for a pullback in the dollar and a bounce in the euro so I think probably said all I need to on on the euro let's have a look at sterling so still sticking with the the four-hour chart here because just the crazy price action during the fresh crash etc makes it a little bit hard to look at the daily chart in any meaningful way we're breaking down a bit here on the British pound obviously a bit firmer today some you know I've talked about the statement briefly not give much detail we did have a speech from Teresa May today in front of the the CBI she seemed to be indicating that the autumn statement is going to support the policies of monetary policy it's going to support monetary policy that would imply some level of stimulus we don't know how much but you know obviously that's wait and see but you know if there is some sort of fiscal stimulus to come that you know should be pound positive so at the moment we've broken through this rising trend line here bit of a head and shoulder type pattern here if that is going to meet its objective you'd use that as the height and then you'd project that down and that would take us towards the bottom at this this range towards these flash flash crash type lows that's certainly feasible and I would be surprised to see sterling roll over at this sort of 124 type mark where this rising trend line is and so obviously this was holding price we did have sharp drop lower we've come out we've retested it as we speak if this does hold as resistance you we could see the market drop down through the 61.8 which has worked quite well as support you know obviously a confluence of support here is why we're seeing the market move higher at the 61.8 of this move higher and the old highs if that does give way logically we're going to drop down to around the 122 handle which fits in with the 78.6% fit and that's obviously where you know that be another opportunity if you think sterling is in the midst of a bottom I've mentioned it before it's tricky using the flash crash low as a trend line point because everyone basically every broker has a different level on their chart because we quite know where the market bottom there but that's another vague area of support suggests that the pound could move higher from a lower point down there all this said if we get a back above this this trend line here then maybe look for a pullback towards this support again for the pound to move higher in the short term probably pretty autumn statement related in terms of where we go on this let's move to the yen now it doesn't get much sweeter than this for those of you attended last week you know I had this is our this is our breakout area you know when we plotted on here last in last week starting analysis webinar that's the 100% extension of this rally up would take us up to here and that is perfectly where we're pulling back from at the moment this 111 handle which obviously coincides quite nicely with these these peaks over here so again as the markets rallied higher you know this is the obviously this dolly end pushing up just the same way that euro dollar collapsed you know we had a little pause at the 61.8 extension the market stopped nicely on Thursday at our 100% of the triangle width so that the triangle height there projected higher so if you traded that triangle breakout from here even though you'd had a few worrying moments during the election nonetheless looking pretty tidy at the moment taking a profit of one the 110 110 type mark and we actually made it a bit higher to that 100% extension of this this break so markets do tend to move and measured they tend to trend in kind of measured moves there's a certain degree of symmetry in markets and this was just a very nice example of that the trend still very much higher if you're using these moving averages of barometer 20 above the 50 you know been mentioning that in the last couple of webinars as a reason to have a more bullish bias on this pair that alongside the triangle breakout to the top side so that I think remains to be the case obviously we're looking extremely overboard at the moment so probably not the time to be going for a long-term bullish position it would probably make sense to look for a deeper pullback we're still in a strong trend so you know doesn't have to be that you know doesn't have to be that deeper a pullback in again looking for your triggers for just a higher low but my suspect my suspicion is that we we pull back and come back again and don't quite make it and pull back for a steeper move I would I would suspect you know what's what are we considering here fundamentally in terms of dollar drivers probably worth quick mentioning now I would say mostly just the Fed speakers you know we've got a last time I checked was a 94% chance of the Fed raising rates in December so we could look where we stand at the moment 98% now so the market and near certainty that the federal raise rates in you know by by a quarter point in December so obviously it goes without saying that will be come was somewhat of a shock probably cause some pretty huge moves should they not raise rates so that's almost a given at this point and then the obviously that the next factor is just how much they talk up the the prospects of you know a faster pace of rate rises next year Ford is worth Janet Yellen in a testimony last week pretty much you know obviously she hasn't done anything to unwind expectations of a December hike but she was a bit more cautious in terms of how the implications of fiscal policy are going to infect inflation and the Fed's target and we heard I believe it was bullard last week another Fed member saying that you know they're basically their projections for 2017 are going to be unchanged because any policies enacted by president elect Donald Trump probably won't really take effect until 2018 anyway okay got a bit of time left here to look at the commodities market big driver for for equities today you know on the FTSE it's the oil and gas sector the highest all prices are up 2% you know pretty much pretty much OPEC 100% driving the oil market at the moment let's put the the branch up so this has all been quite a long-term chart on here but you know this is where we stand we had the push down through that significant support at 45 but didn't quite get to 43 and we've seen a nice rebound here price has pushed above the 20 day moving average but still the 20 remains well below the the 50 obviously that's a that's a lagging type effect what we could be looking at here is this kind of factor where basically we're in a range where and so you know if it's a long prolonged downtrend then these moving averages are useful if it's a range where they just are very slow to catch the fact that the markets traving between higher and lower values then they're almost of no use and I just think that's probably what's about to happen here is we're going to get a similar move to this where we come to the moving average pull back and then just zoom straight through up towards the top of the range again that to me would make some sort of sense that you know next test to me will be 49 because that's this rising trend line which was you know been fairly fairly prominent this this touch here the third touch wasn't perfect but kind of was more responding to this low here so we didn't get the full touch onto the trend line but if we roll over from 49 that could be the beginning to a steeper downtrend pretty much depends on I would say number one whether the OPEC cut takes place and number two as to how close to their kind of original size of cut they they they pull off I'm not sure there's really any other variables there it doesn't really matter who cuts productions just as long as the overall supply is is is less and addresses that supply cut and then the issue that we'll have to deal with going forward is you know whether US shale is able to respond to the higher prices and produce more and we end up with just still the same amount of oil in the market still an oversupply but it's just produced in the US and by other OPEC countries like Iran and Iraq instead of Saudi Arabia so there we are I think that was if I remember correctly that was actually a fib support so you're pretty close to the the 78.6 where we eventually and 78.6 and that low hip sleep from from August 12th so a nice little confluence of support if anyone been buying down there or even if you hadn't bought down there but you'd seen this you know this big legs candle stick here that's what you want to see the next day after a reversal kind of stick a move higher and taking out those old highs we got the short dip down and the markets progressing so this is what you want to see in terms of a trend reversal right in this area right here let's touch on gold before we finish things off big leveling gold at the moment and we're getting a rebound off it basically 1200 but I would say up who not I have mentioned here in my chart for him 1200 to 1208 is these is basically the bottom of this trading range that we've been in for a while we were drifting higher from the top of the range obviously things turned pretty sharply lower here got the the election rebound a lot of sellers in the market for gold similar to the fact there's a lot of buyers in the stock market at the same point in time similar sort of levels if you mirror them and the markets turn over so I think you've got to say that probably the better the bias here for the gold market is lower but this is just a big support and a big round number that's going to attract some longer-term gold bulls who is still buying into the uncertainty of the political situation globally at the moment so you know I think there's probably a good chance of a bounce from here we're getting the first signs of it if a bit like that will move if we can get a move above this 12 30 to 12 you know maybe called 12 34 the peak here and it will close above there that's when we want to start looking for dips back for higher opportunities for the price to move higher that said it you know the move could be limited by 12 the 1250 handle which was the low here we kind of few false breaks from it here and that to me would be a level worth watching I'm moving averages probably have slide it down to about there by the time we get there as well if we do get there this bounce a little bit of a follow-through okay I'm going to call it a day there thank you very much for attending the weekly charting analysis this week good luck with your trading I'll talk to you the same time next week