 Felly ydych chi'n gwybod yma ystyried yr aelodol am gyfer bywyd ein fwyaf ar ysgologiaeth o gyfnod am y welfa amsgologiaeth am y grifritol iawn. Fydd wedi amdano'r gyfer esgolwaldur Eamor wedi gwneud y dweud y pwysig recruiting. Ond ystod yn dechrau gyda'r perffordd yma. Ynno y pwysig, because rydych chi'n gwill yma ydych chi yn y ddechrau'n y pwysig. I'm just going to say a very brief few words and not delay getting over to the main event which is to hear from Artur Runga-Mesker from the European Commission. My name is Eamor Cotter. I'm a director in the Environmental Protection Agency and I'm really delighted to welcome Artur to Ireland on behalf of the EPA. He's been really willingly engaging with all of the events that we've set up for him today and this is the first event, this lecture here in the IAEA, which we're delighted to co-host with the IAEA and it's our first foray in terms of a partnership between the EPA and the IAEA and really hope that we'll have further collaborations into the future. Artur, another key part of Artur's visit is a public lecture that he'll give tonight in the mansion house and we have a big audience coming to that and we're doing that under the umbrella of the national dialogue on climate action. So, for anyone who's interested, we're streaming it live on the EPA website at 7, we're starting at 7pm, so tune in if you're not actually coming to the event. I'm really looking forward to hearing what Artur has to say today on the European Green Deal, on the plans for a climate neutral continent by 2050, the pathways, the building blocks to get there. Now is a really opportune time that we have this discussion, we're very fortunate to have him here so soon after all of these agreements have been put in place and so I'm really looking forward to hearing him speak and that's really all I'm going to say except to say thank you for being here Artur, thank you for all of your engagement and to say I'm pleased again we are in the EPA to be partnering with the IAEA so thank you very much. Dr Artur Rumkomatsger is a director at DG for Climate Action in the European Commission. His responsibilities include domestic and international climate strategies overseeing the governance of EU climate action regulation of greenhouse gas emissions from I think the non ETS sector and supporting innovation and modernisation in the energy sectors. So with that small mandate, could I invite Dr to address us please? The address will be on the record and we follow Europe House rules and the subsequent discussion. Thank you very much. Yes, thank you very much and thank you very much for inviting me to this, I'm told very historic venue and also to the Institute for European Affairs and tonight for an even bigger event and thank you all for coming. What I want to do is really to start off and looking at the vision for the year 2050 climate neutrality. I think this should work, yes. What we all notice and you will do as well in Ireland is that the European climate in Europe is changing. We see the effects of climate change everywhere in all parts of Europe and it's not only the agriculturalists or the farmers who see that because weather patterns are changing, the climate is getting drier in many parts of Europe and you really have effects on agricultural yields and also on forests dying in certain parts of Europe. No, it's also touching the industrial fabric in Europe because all power plants need water and if there's no water then it's hard for a power plant to run and for a lot of shipping in Europe, the inland shipping you also need water and we have had phases where the iron ore couldn't get to the steel mill and the chemicals couldn't get to the customers so we see real economic effects happening over the last years and that is only with an increase in global average temperature of one degree Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels. If you look at the report of the IPCC, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, they are saying the 1.5 if we continue as today we will pass between 2040 and 2050, two degrees will pass somewhere between 2060 maybe 2070 so that's a doubling even of that temperature increase. So we can imagine how this is going to change what is happening around us and that it will not only have economic effects but it might also unleash a lot of security issues because if the climate gets difficult people start moving and some of my colleagues working on development are saying this is what we are already seeing today that a lot of movement of people and migration is happening because of climate change so we need to do something against it and that is what the plan is in Europe to say we need to be climate neutral by the year 2050 and you see here the emissions how they would evolve from the year 1990 to the year 2050 and what you can see is first and foremost if you look at the end of the graph in the year 2050 you will still have emissions. You will have emissions from some areas where it's very hard to abate them or to get rid of them and one of those is agriculture because cows will continue to do what they also do today but there might be other areas like for instance aviation where we will not be able to fully decarbonize that sector by the year 2050. So in order to get to net zero we need to have removals on the other side and that's also where the agriculture, the forestry sector can be quite instrumental because plants and soils they can suck up carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and can make sure that the balance gets to net zero. On top of that we will also have industrial ways of capturing CO2 from the atmosphere which we can put into geological strata, you see it here in red and what you also see is in terms of the different colours which show the different sectors of the economy all sectors will have to contribute and just look at the yellow one which is the energy sector already by the year 2040 will be able to fully decarbonize it if we want to be climate neutral by the year 2050 and I think that's one of the sectors where it's easy to imagine what types of technologies we are thinking of because those renewable energy technologies are already around and other carbon free forms of energy production are also there. What is also important to note is that this is not a straight jacket because we have many technological options that you can deploy in the different member states and you can adapt to your local, your national circumstances how much you are going to use any of those seven building blocks and it starts with energy efficiency. If we were to move forward in an optimal manner we could reduce the energy consumption in Europe by half by the year 2050 without reducing the level of comfort for the citizens we can even use more energy in a more productive manner. One of the big issues is buildings in 2050 the houses you will see probably 70 to 75% of those houses are already there today. So a deep renovation of the current building stock is something that is absolutely necessary. Again that's not rocket science because most of the technologies we know already today it just needs to happen and that will require efforts on the policy side. We know the renewable energy I've been talking about but then there's also a few member states who will embark on nuclear energy in order to have energy that is going to reduce the carbon footprint. We will use much more electricity because that is the most efficient way of using energy in the whole energy system. And you can turn this electricity also into other forms of energy for instance into hydrogen into synthetic fuels for processes where you need for instance high heat and other things. What I want to say here is that in terms of the technological solutions I think most of them are known many of them will still need to be tested at large scale. Reducing the use of fossil fuels also comes with a big benefit in terms of our trade balance because most of the fossil fuels we have to import in Europe so we will have a positive impact on the fuel bill. The same I think is true when we look at the sector of transport mobility. Today you see here on the left hand side in red 95% is dependent on oil. But in future in the year 2050 on the right hand side you see a much bigger variety of fuels that you can use and that get the whole sector almost completely decarbonised except for that little red bit on the bottom there. Which is kerosene for aviation which we might still need in 2050 but even there technological progress might be faster than what we expect here. When it comes to cars I think that is the next biggest revolution that we are going to see in the transport sector and that is the electrification of cars that is going to happen in the next 10 years. But that also will require a lot of infrastructure that needs to be built again government help working with private sector handing glove in order to move there. The next building block is industry and here you come sometimes to emission if you don't look at the energy emissions from industry that are very hard to abide. The prime example is always steel. You need a lot of coal and coke in order to reduce iron ore to produce steel. But we also know that we can use instead of that hydrogen and you can produce hydrogen in a clean manner. So one of the task is to look at these processes and test these technologies at a large scale in the next 10 to 15 years in order to roll them out in the years thereafter. And if you look at European steel industry it needs a complete refurbishment anyway in the next 30 years so from that point of view you will also modernise the European economy. A second thing is the circular economy which means at the present point in time a lot of the material comes into Europe and then goes straight to the waste bin after the productive life of the products. And that also will have to change. We have to make our economy in Europe much more efficient and much more productive in that sense. So the circular economy action plan and so on is something that is going to get us forward on that route. Another aspect of this is the regional aspect because industry in Europe you will find in big clusters. And the good thing there is that if you have a lot of and very different industry in a big cluster you have huge possibilities and linking these industries up with each other. So what is called sector coupling is something that is key for the circular economy and in some of these big clusters what we need to see in the coming 5 to 10 years is some of these big projects where you show how you can bring these different sectors together. The energy sector with the different industrial sectors in order to come to circularity. That will require a completely different type of infrastructure and that is not only the electricity grid but you also talk about the gas grid which is a huge asset in many parts of Europe which you can use for decarbonised gas in 30 years time in order to get to net zero and climate neutral 2050 in Europe. It also means the whole transport infrastructure and on top of that in order to manage it efficiently it means digitalisation. So this integration of the different networks in Europe is something that has big chances in moving us forward to decarbonising the economy and to get to climate neutrality. Another key block is going to be agriculture and I know that is something that is always very important in Ireland. And what I tell farmers always is that farmers are not going to go out of business if we want to fight climate change. On the contrary it will mean more business for farmers because it is not only that we will have to feed many more people by the year 2050 but we will also have to produce many of the feedstocks from agriculture products or forestry products. So material substitution whether it is in the building sector whether it is in the chemical industry in terms of feedstock where today about 10% of the imported oil is being used as feedstock that can be replaced by agriculture products. And it means in the end that also agriculture will become more productive than it is today. So there is also a task here to make sure that we become more efficient in agriculture across Europe. Finally I mentioned the removals because also their agriculture and forestry can play an important role. So we need to value these things that we have whether it is in the soils or in the forests and we need to reward farmers if they do more than what they did in the past. And I think that's a big policy task in the coming years. Then the final the residual I spoke about that already is carbon capture and storage. So apart from the biological way of doing it also look at industrial ways of capturing carbon in Europe in order to reduce the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. The extent to which we will need that will depend very much on how far you will get the emissions down by the year 2050. So that is what you can also play with in the whole policy. In order to get there we need to invest massive amounts of money into the European economy. We reckon that it is somewhere between 150 to 170 billion euros every year from this year up till the year 2050. That's about two percent one and a half to two percent of our GDP. If you compare that what we invest in any case every year into our economy which is about 20 percent of the GDP. You will see it is a significant amount in terms of the increase of investment. And we also need to make sure that the 20 percent you spend in a way it's compatible with the climate neutral world. And that I think is a big task for policy in Europe together with the private sector. If you invest into your economy you usually create growth. So what we want to do and that is the vision behind it that this is going to be the new growth model for Europe. Here you see in the graph and it starts in the year 1990 how economy has been developing. We have been increasing our GDP by around 60 percent since 1990 at the same time emissions went down somewhere around 23 24 percent until today. And we want to continue along these paths into the future into the year 2050. Every transition comes with challenges for different sectors. And I think the one everybody knows immediately is the one of fossil fuels. Whether it is coal whether it is peat whether it is shale gas or shale oil in Europe those sectors the pressure will be very high. Because as I said in the beginning decarbonising the energy sector means that we have to change electricity production fundamentally in that sector. What is important is that because many of these activities related to fossil fuels are very focused on particular parts in Europe. You have it in the midlands here in Ireland you have it in Poland in the southern parts where you have coal different parts in Germany northern Spain. And we need to make sure that we help these regions through the transition and we have to be very proactive. But that is kind of the task in the energy sector for the coming 10 years but it goes much further because it also means all energy intensive industry. Whether it is the production of automobiles or trucks all of that will have to be changed will have to be refurbished over the coming three decades. And we need to make sure that we do not leave anybody behind and that's also equally valid of course for the farming community and for the foresters where you will see a lot of changes. I should not leave finish this presentation without not saying that of course this has a global dimension. Europe's emissions are eight nine maybe 10% internationally so even if we were to close down our economy tomorrow we wouldn't do any change. We wouldn't see any change in terms of the speed and the pace of climate change happening. So we need to work with other countries around the world. We need to encourage them to follow our way. And I think we see this happening. Look at renewable energy which has not only become cheap in Europe. It has become also the most cost efficient technology in many other parts of the world and you see a huge roll out of renewable technologies around the world. You also see it in terms of regulatory action. Emissions trading is not something that's confined to Europe. China is building its own system at the present point in time. So also on the regulatory side we see things happening. South Africa is introducing a carbon tax and it's going gradually from one part of the world to the other. Still in Europe we think that in the coming years we'll have some particular changes, challenges and that could lead to what is called carbon leakage. So this is something we will have to address and see is it necessary for certain products or sectors to look at carbon border adjustments yes or no. So that's one of the questions we are posing ourselves. And this vision is the starting point for the Green Deal that was just announced by the new commission. Because that is what the commission wants to do and the new commission in particular to say we need to start with the first chapter in this transformation process. So the Green Deal as it was announced just before Christmas is trying to do this to set an agenda for the next 15, 18, 24 months to say what action do we need to do and all the sectors I have been showing in order to move forward towards a climate neutral Europe in the year 2050. And that will have to include also the issue of finance in terms of how are you going to finance this change. And I'm not going to go through each and every. If you come tonight you will get a much more detailed view of this particular graph. But what I want to say is we will be looking at action in all the different sectors. So it is the climate legislation, the emissions trading where we want to move the targets up from the current minus 40% to minus 50% or minus 55%. You will see it in the energy sector where we will look at new initiatives on offshore wind, on new initiatives in terms of the networks that we are investing in in Europe. The same is true for industry where a circular economy action plan is going to be developed and will come out in the coming weeks that we start grabbing these lead markets for these new products in the industrial sectors. The same will do in terms of mobility, the roll out of alternative fuels infrastructure which is so eminently important in the coming five years is one of the big things. We will look at the farming sector in order to make farming more productive, less harmful to the environment. We will also look at preserving and restoring ecosystems because it's not only a climate crisis we are in. We also have a crisis with respect to biodiversity that is going to be addressed. There will be a strategy coming out in about a month's time and we will look at other areas of pollution, whether it's the chemical sector, whether it's the traffic. So the pollution standards we have for cars, they will be ramped up again going to Euro 7 standards. So it's a big work program that is coming forward in the future and all of that will have to be done looking at also the social issues that come with it. Don't leave anybody behind and that's not only in terms of giving people money, it's also bringing people together. What has been announced is a climate pact where we want to work with civil society, with citizens, with business corporations, with farming associations to see if you have good ideas and you can inspire others and you want to work on those ideas, let's come together and do it together and create little hubs of progression to move forward. So that could also be cities. At the moment we already have a network of mayors, 6,000 in Europe and we want to expand that work in the coming years to take all the citizens with us. That's the green deal, so it's a big task not only for us in Brussels because it will only happen if also member states and as I said regions, municipalities, the business, the farming community, schools, kids all move together into one direction. It's a big project in terms of transformation. We should not be mistaken. This is not going to happen like manna is falling from heaven. It requires roll up your sleeves now and then continue for the next 30 years working on it. Thank you.