 Okay, very good morning. It's just on 7 a.m. Here in London on Monday the 10th of August Hope you all had a fantastic weekend. Just quickly before I begin the briefing and look ahead for the week Don't forget to check out the Amphi trading comm website forward slash traders for our trading development programs Definitely worth checking out the Amplify now product in particular, which is our online e-learning platform And if you just hit that start now button, you can access some free content So definitely worth checking out when you have time also as well while I'm here Don't forget to like and subscribe to the channel really appreciate growing our online community and all the engagement that we get on all of our Videos so always ask questions. Absolutely. I'm happy to help myself and the rest of the team But let's have a look then at what exactly is going on and I guess best place to start is always the charts Because they explain pretty much from a sentiment basis exactly what is going on And we've got a marginal bid tone in US equity index futures that that extends up about hundred points this morning Elsewhere gold has resumed its upward trend in the top right hand corner here up about 15 and a half dollars That came after quite a lot of heavy selling pressure we had on Friday But we'll look at gold in a moment in a little bit more detail the currency markets the Dixie Equally so just reversing a bit of that strength that was seen initially after the non-farm payroll Port kind of reverting back to otherwise. It's trend and as such then both the major pairs and Euro there in cable a little bit higher And actually just while we're on the currency front Let's just have a look at these currency pairs In the euro you can see here Just clawing back some of that initial selling pressure that we had with the dollop pop on the payroll Surprisingly strong print that we had at the end of last week But on a weekly chart, this is that very long term going back to this is 2008 price activity up here right in the peak that double top that we had Somewhat 12 years ago now the retest in 2014 and interestingly now two weeks back to back We've had rejections at that level on that long-term trend line and also that summer 18 high Which is around at 119 level so Interesting that of course because it also coincides then with a similar type of movement in Cable where from a year-to-date perspective This was back on the 31st. This was the high from last week So again also two weeks back to back which is falling short of a retest on that 132 Which is approximately the year-to-date high here for cable So at the moment this pair trading a relative range now really around 130 to 132 130 you can see is the lower bound of the price that we had from you this time last week in fact And also a couple of retest so worth keeping an eye on that for the week ahead within that area Looking at the precious metals then with gold as I said it is up this morning if I make this a little bit bigger So you can see what I've been looking at Kind of really two main areas of focus on any pullback on the downside the lower bound here would encapsulate Basically the the 2000 price point and the way of which the market has responded you can see here multiple times before we had then got that definitive break that we saw on the fourth and then the push-up to the this this all-time high at 2089 which we printed back on What last Thursday before then pay rise kind of bumped us back down lower? So at this point a decent area of support as I've got marked up here on the chart at around 2027 and a half The market respected that in the post payroll price action Which was the respective high and low that we had back on the fourth and fifth? And we had a retest of that at the recommencement of trade on the open on Globex And then we've just studied at exactly the round around the same support area to where we are at the moment Which is around a 16 and a half dollar game So any further push-up the upside now be keeping on that Asia pack high that comes in around three dollars above the current price Area you've got the pivot up at 53 today on the intro day Which would also put us up and around that low that we had on the sixth Which is when we were respecting that trend line on the the gradual move higher that we had for silver That's the other one. Obviously that's been under observation of late Just given the extreme volatility that we've had in this particular precious metal And as you can see here the areas that we're still watching remain the same from a medium term perspective for the week as a whole That being 29 29, which the market did respect. I mean, we're looking at weeklies here So these really key quite definable levels that would go back to 2013 and 2012 type price action That's still the key ones we're watching And the main thing here is that you know silver has been trading very much in a momentum type way and Key breaches of long-term technical levels tend to be triggers then for these moves As we've had pretty much every time 23 Hesitation break run up to 25 pullback run up to 26 pullback push up to 28 And then a little bit of a pullback push up to 30 last week Then a pullback to 28. So we continue to rise here this morning Back up on the front foot. We're up around $1.2 already on the session this morning. So back up keeping on that 29 29 But the week the key upside level should we look to retest up at the higher bound would be $30 Because the breacher $30 again could open a significant period of kind of blue skies ahead with not much in the way of clear technical resistance And if we continue to remain bid in that precious space then I wouldn't discount then and move back up to that 2013 um January high up around 32 and a half which are being incredible if you think about it We're already up, you know up at around 50% or so in the last month or so for that for that product So it would continue in that fashion. So let's get stuck into some of the headlines then So overall generally slight slightly neutral to mild positive risk sentiment Equity index features slightly higher as is oil Gold kind of in the precious space of silver resuming that up would trend with the dollar also Just weakening a touch reversing course from friday and tino's down just marginally But let's have a look at the main news from the weekend and probably the one that you've read about the most Is certainly to do with donald trump So one thing is for first of all is in the age of pacific session Japan, singapore was shut for holidays and in terms of the shanghai csi 300 the shen 10 listed shares And also hong kong's heng sang they both did dip initially at the open But did recover as the session progressed and a lot of that came after friday You probably saw you know last week was a bit of an escalation Pick up in on the tech side of things with tick tock and we chat from 10 cent and so on friday as well trumped in imposed restrictions on 11 hong kong and chinese officials including Kerry lamb who of course is hong kong's chief executive and leo huening Which is mainland china's top official in the city? and so a little bit of reaction to that in the localized region in the far east however It did reverse course don't forget that us trade representative robert lightheiser and the chinese vice premier. They're going to be meeting To review the implementation of the phase one of the trade deal And likely air their mutual grievances during a video conference call that's going to be happening this saturday So the 15th of august what i would suggest then is going off historical precedents whenever there is a defined date meeting like that We tend to see a degree of turbulence Let's call it because america likes to go into these kind of high level talks as the aggressor On the front foot and typically then that can mean that we could be in for Some slight disruptive comments perhaps going into the call I guess worst-case scenario the call doesn't happen at all that would be again That just a breakdown and further pressure perhaps on the markets Which could be a catalyst towards the back end of the week I guess my main point here is just look out for that type of news flow as the week develops because you're probably going to get Press reports and leaks and rumors and these types of things and it will be the market of course It's still quite sensitive to this but over the weekend Some of the main things that we were looking at was was from trump And following last week's congressional impasse Basically trump has taken it upon himself to execute four executive actions on saturday And here they are to provide four hundred dollars a week in jobless benefits So obviously this is up from 200 that was tabled just a week ago But it's down from 600 that was authorized back in march So a little bit of a middle ground to some respect The u.s. Treasury will allow companies to defer payroll taxes for americans making less than a hundred thousand dollars a year until through to year end deferring of student loans and interest And extending the federal eviction moratorium if you remember me talking about a few weeks ago Which was going to put tens of millions americans potentially at risk of eviction So yeah, this is this is interesting The main thing this is leading to really now is okay, so that's that Cliff edge scenario taken care of the worst economic Realization of a lot of those programs finishing does take a little bit of a sting out of the potential near-term risk And hence the reason why overnight the reopening of trade it was mildly positive However, it was interesting because last friday was payrolls Obviously it was if anything surprisingly on the strong side people were kind of erring on the side of a downside surprise And that failed to materialize And if anything that was almost Like a negative for progressive Nature of these talks happening on capitol hill because nothing like sharpening the mind of a politician on either side of the floor Then there's significantly deteriorating economy, which is bad for both political parties in an election campaigning year But however the number was better than expected So it could well draw this out a little longer and the longer that does become drawn out Then the worse it will potentially be for markets because markets are hungry for stimulus now, right? and the kind of democrats back in What may Table their proposal of three and a half trillion dollars republicans A led senate coming back with just a trillion and that's where they've got to meet in some kind of compromise at the moment And on that front US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said sunday that they are open to restarting their covid-19 aid talks After those failed negotiations prompted trump to take that action On saturday, I do think overall That it's in neither party's interest to not deliver something Because then it kind of would give the other side plenty of ammunition Then if i were trump i would say well look i wanted to pass more stimulus It's the democrats that weren't willing to be realistic and compromised that meant that this didn't go through So any economic deterioration is therefore So you could use it quite nicely to frame a certain situation. So Such as politics though Looming deadlines and a negative market reaction, which isn't happening right now Normally the things that then bring these guys to the table to cut deals So I would imagine this is going to be drawn out a little longer But as I said before the longer this goes on the more potential weight it could add to markets Which might get apprehensive of the lack of forthcoming fiscal stimulus In that point of view on that point then a quick thing I wanted to mention Was About the election really and one of the things I was looking at Was here And I was looking at this this graphic that reuters had over the weekend I talk about it in my macro menu So if you want to read my my thoughts fundamentally about the week ahead Just remember on my twitter account here. I publish on sunday a pinned tweet Which is like a short three four minute read of what i'm thinking for the week ahead But this is one of the charts that I was talking about And it's looking at positioning that's happening now as people looking to hedge positions and more so I guess portfolio managers Rather than say short term intraday traders who perhaps aren't looking that far ahead at this point in time. Remember Markets aren't Yet election obsessed they will become so and we've already got what less than a hundred days now to the election But at the moment the market's been so covid focused And the shape of recovery has been so key But so it's going to be inevitable at some point But implied volatility rise that we've been seeing here looks especially steep Because the vix itself has it's been basically trading at a five month low It's been particularly low as this equity market's kind of put in this Persistent recovery, but the spread between august and october vix futures now is at five and a half points Which is the widest these contracts have most they've been since they began trading as focus may be less on the outcome Of the actual election and more and a possible delays in tallying results due to ride spread use of mail Ballots this year. This is probably something you've heard trump mentioning quite a lot He's tried already given the fact that he is behind in the polls to joe biden to cast doubt on the How valid the election would be if done via a a mail-in ballot system Deeming it in advance the most fraudulent in u.s history Expectations are that actually even though it's happening in early november the election results Might well not be out until Thanksgiving, which is the 26th of november Until the actual official results are unknown. So Yeah, not just the outcome. It's the lack of uncertainty then One of the longest periods that would be in history to actually find out who's actually won that could destabilize Trump's markets at that point in time. And so people kind of already moving to hedge against that expected volatility over that period On the the notion of How are they affaring in the polls? This is another thing I was writing about in the macro menu and Almost covertly. I think trump has managed to close the gap A decent amount if you look at the the biggest Kind of divergence if you like when you know here at this point biden was was ahead by 10 point plus You know, you can see here It's almost 11 points if you go back to end of june But remember what was happening at that period of the end of june going into the early part of july That was when we were seeing a big acceleration in those sunbelt states particularly florida, texas, california, arizona And that was really impeding Trump's favorability in addition to the social unrest obviously still The remnants of the black lives matter movement immediately after the george floyd death as well since that point though I would say the media coverage of that social issue has probably died down And then on the flip side the covet situation in those key american hotspots has actually started to decelerate and so as such We're starting to see trump quite as I said Silently just creeping back up and we just actually narrowed it now on the average pole of poles on the rcp measure It's now just 6.4. So he's almost halved it Over the recent weeks, you know the hill, which was the last One of the last poles that was out had biden head just by three points So yeah, quite interesting to watch how that develops. It's obviously the democratic convention happening Um This weekend, well, I think it starts on monday next week 17th And what we're awaiting to hear from joe biden is who's going to be the potential running mate? and of course just Given the the nature of what's been going on particularly with some of those social issues, of course then Expectations are that he's going to pick a female of color in order to obviously appeal to a certain type of base Leading the bookie's favorite at the moment is california senator and attorney general kamala harris Second then potential is former colleague and the national security advisor during the obama administration Which was susan wright's How much difference does this make in a media effect to markets? I would say very little But you know just worth noting because you're probably going to see headlines about this ahead of that That event for the democrats happening in the coming week or so Quick look at then at the equity markets. Just giving some of this discussion First off, let's just have a look at the s&p 500 And yeah, it's just interesting looking at things at the moment We're coming up to a fairly significant level of of resistance that i've been keeping an eye on these are kind of medium-term levels that I watch I normally put out on a sunday and I have them in play throughout the week is as key kind of milestones To watch we've already really tested that 33 57 3 quarters. I had marked up Because he's going back to that area of really support and resistance On the initial move to all-time highs that we saw back at the beginning of the year before the whole pandemic Took hold and so here really for me. This is the final barrier for the s&p Before then if we break we go back up to retest that all-time high that was printed Back on late february, which would be just short for the $3,400 handle. So could we get up there this week? Sure, we can under the right circumstance. I mean the trend now has been pretty definitive and in play through the last 10 days And so why not? I mean even if we got a pullback though I guess key levels would be the reverse course of these defined resistance points So 33 12 32 84 Again, the real strong area of support and any more violent pullback comes down at the 3200 kind of level that cluster of Support that's held up the price activity since we broke higher Around mid july is such a strong level as well So conditions are set here. I think for these equity markets to claw it out and continue to move up obviously Markets generally from an equity Constituents basis are so heavily heavily tied to those big mega cap tech names Which are so dominant at the moment, you know, despite the lack of breadth of buying in these equity indices I still think as long as those guys are performing then we continue on up Full of time being in the nasdaq. Obviously, that's the other one people will watch Particularly closely and this is the kind of near-term price movement that I've been watching And it is that really key level of support that we've got which was that Failed breach on three occasions to to get that all-time high and then we popped above it Back at the beginning of this month and now as you can see that provided an area of clear support for price And so that'll be a key area If we can stay above there any break of that level Then I'll probably be looking back to around here, which was that high from the 23rd And also on the 31st, which would be 10 9 39 would be the next level on a break But otherwise all things remaining equal I'd anticipate that that level to hold and then gradually I push back up To the all-time highs here that we did print on friday At 11 283 would be a key area to be watching So again for the moment the kind of underlying fundamental view remains the same it's kind of um bullish in view And any pullbacks we would anticipate would find support lower down to be brought back into would be our mentality at this point Okay, quick run through some of the other headlines and we can incorporate some other charts as well This is just some data that came out overnight china consumer inflation accelerated and factory price deflation eased in july as the country continues to Show some recovery and stabilization post the worst part of the the pandemic CPI 2.7 0.1 higher than expected. So marginal food prices Were pushed higher in the month partly due to damage and transportation disruptions Due to flooding in central and southern china Pork prices were up 10.3 percent on the month as we know that narrative given the situation with the previous outbreak of that African swine flu which which created a culling of all pig farming across the The nation at the beginning of the year still being a key component for pork, which is up about 86 percent Prices increased that is on the year on the ppi side minus 2.4 percent. So we have still got this divergence between cpi and deflation on the ppi metric Or be it the decline not as severe as somewhere anticipating the slowdown Then in factory deflation mainly due to higher commodity and industrial product prices The pbac did speak overnight the chinese central bank They said Military policy would be flexible appropriate and targeted as according to the bank The people's bank of china governing yi gang However, these comments are pretty much a repetition Of the comments the central bank made last week in its quarterly policy report So I wouldn't over interpret this. This is their kind of uniform forward guidance The other thing in the oil market bloomberg are putting around this story It's talking about Saudi aramco predicted demand will continue to improve through the rest of the year I wouldn't read too much into that. I think bloomberg are doing a little bit of a curve fit job To fit the fact that oil is trending a little higher this morning Saudi talking up the demand side comes as absolutely no surprise because they have their earnings Over the weekend. I'm not sure if you saw But they've had a net income for the three months ending in june Fell to 6.6 billion now 6.6 billion sounds pretty decent for a for a net income figure, right? But that is actually Down 73 percent from a year earlier, you know, it's a massive decline They have actually still kept a you know, a huge dividend payout that they've done which is very different from some of the other Oil majors that we have globally as they want to appease then shortly after the IPO than which they've had their shareholders so I think this is just a little bit of Just general management of the fallout of how severe their profits have declined For them to talk up the market to appease their their investors and keep them calm The things are going to be okay in the long run. So I wouldn't over interpret that Underlying this news elsewhere one of the other major Of course, opec oil producers is iraq and iraq said friday if you missed it that they would cut its oil output further By 400,000 barrels per day in august and september to compensate for its overproduction in the prior Months remember part of the uniform agreement of opec plus and its allies Was that any of those non-compliant countries iraq which has typically been one of the worst culprits of this Would have to over deliver on their supply cut in order for then Then to be deemed part of the actual agreement and so far they've made noises that they would follow that and Become compliant to the deal and that would mean that's a further 400,000 barrel per day cut 400,000 we are talking about iraq who is the second largest producer within opec in the persian golf So that is significant if they they adhere to that that number and then in the us on friday We still keep an eye on the baker hues rick count figure active rigs declined by four to now 176 and to give that 176 figure some context That's the lowest since july of 2005 So active rigs in the us are very low at the moment and don't forget it's yes Some have been idle, but some have been closed and they can't just switch on like that quite happen that quickly and so if there is a more persistent renewed pickup in demand then You would imagine then the price could well move higher under those conditions, but obviously it's dependent on really People's belief and confidence about the overall economic recovery in this post pandemic kind of world now at the moment From a from a technical point of view a quick look at oil There certainly are some levels that i'm watching on a more medium term basis I've marked these up for this morning And i'm looking at a few different things here Basically, you've got the 21 dma, which was a nice level to find some support Which then has acted as support as anticipated from sunday's charts that i put out on twitter Around that 41 handle. So you've basically got 41 The 21 dma and friday's low all coalescing on the same point of 41 dollars, which was also if you look here a decent level of resistance at the time Because that was that previous low that we had on the 6th of march before that failed opa meeting that we had So a really solid level there In the short term to keep an eye on definitely even for the range today We're trading about 70 cents above that at the moment, but a good decent floor that should provide on the upside 42 36 encapsulates that kind of double top that we had back on the 21st 22nd of july That would be the next upside target. So for the moment within that range 41 05 42 36 then the break above would bring in last week's high 43 32 which was that 2nd of march high as well. So any breakdown in price You got the 50 dma and that double bottom from those lows That we printed back on the 31st of july and 3rd of august would be a crucial level as well So some nice technical levels here both support and resistance to act as either support points or targets depending on how your your view is forming at the moment for that particular asset and then Finally just a quick wrap up of the The week and then I also just wanted to quickly point out a technical level in the bund For any fixed income traders But looking at the week ahead obviously mondays typically the markets tends to start fairly slow and then Pick up as the week progresses. This week is no different Feds evans think it was evans who spoke over the weekend on cvs and the us and was talking again about the pressure on Capital hill to deliver fiscal stimulus to accompany the monetary Movements that have already had by way of the federal reserve. So today's pretty quiet overall Then we go into tuesday. You get the jobs data coming out in the uk germans lew And then wednesday uk gdp the preliminary figure in us cpi would be quite interesting to to monitor of course And you got the rbnz rate decision and a couple of fed speakers on the docket Thursday the australian jobs data You then get the us initial jobless claims and that could be quite an interesting one to follow Of course, let me just transition my screen so you can see the canada here The us initial jobless claims could be quite interesting given the fact that they decelerated Quite significantly and surprisingly last week. So we've had kind of the shape and the curve Of declining we had a slight pick up in mid july and now we've dropped back down again So is that pattern going to continue? Is there more to it? Um Then just last week's reading to to turn that that kind of three or four week pattern that we had seen of increases Then on friday, um, it's probably the most busiest day from a data point perspective Chinese retail sales industrial data You're as only employment in gdp second reading and you've got us retail sales industrial production and the preliminary university of michigan survey Which will again be quite interesting to map out consumer confidence just given the uh the now slightly evolved situation of the Yes, still not a great situation, but a somewhat improving one in the fact that covid numbers in those kiosks are declining And then you've got the u.s. China meeting happening, of course on the saturday Um, as I mentioned a quick look at the bund I just wanted to there's there's quite a significant level. We're trading close proximity to at the moment I've got this on a 60 minute chart, and I just wanted to point out this level at 176 95 That we're trading right now and you can see I'm just going to put a rectangle there around the price activity uh acted as a solid area of resistance through the back end of Um, july then turned support just before the end of that month and we've come back for a retest Uh around what thursday last week, and then we've retested it again today Which is also the daily pivots the s1 Level and you can see the market's had a nice response out of there And I know a couple of the guys are in the long already off that level Looking to manage that trade coming up. You've got the kind of asia Pacific highs we've just got over now at the moment. So Just keeping an eye on any further movement up towards Probably this hub area 77 20 Which encapsulates some of that post payroll volatility And then some of that previous area of resistance support going back through august But yeah, nice entry in the good trade so far developing in the boom this morning Okay, that is it guys any questions at all feel free to leave a comment and ask me a question always happy to help as usual Also, don't forget to like and subscribe to the channel That'd be much appreciated and more content coming your way same time tomorrow. All right. Take care guys. Have a good week