 This is Covering the Spread, part of the FanDuel Podcast Network. We have got one of the most bananas. Mid-October college football slates, I can remember in a very long time, kind of this weekend. So, got a special guest on to break it down. Ben Stevens of Sports Grid will be here for today to break down his thoughts on a very fun week number seven. This is Covering the Spread right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network and numberfire.com. My name is Jim Sonness. I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com. Join here as I am each Wednesday by Dr. Ed Fang. Find his work at thepowerrank.com. Ed, six, six, six slated college football this week. How are you doing? I'm doing well. Looking forward to a lot of attention coming to Ann Arbor with Penn State coming into town. Should be a lot of fun. And yeah, it's gonna be awesome. So we got Michigan covered with you. We've got Syracuse covered with Ben as well. Luckily we're not talking Northwestern. I can be very grateful for that. We can just ignore them this week. And we'll talk about the good football teams instead. Let's bring in Ben Stevens. He is on Twitter at Ben Scott. Stevens find his work over on Sports Grid the morning after every weekday morning in Ben. We will talk about your orange later on, don't you worry. But how are you doing heading into a fun slated football? Jim, Ed, I am phenomenal. I look at the slate often. I've looked at the slate for a while now. Pretty much the last month leading up until week seven. Here in the middle of October, Saturday, October 15th. And every time I do, a tear is brought to my eye of pure excitement. Those tears are going to grow out of true tears of joy as we get ready for this Saturday slate. Six ranked versus ranked top 25 matchups. Three games that feature teams that are unbeaten, a perfect five and 0 or better against each other. Jim, we talked about this earlier in the day. It is just the second time in the history of college football, the entirety of the sport that on a single Saturday, we have had three matchups of unbeaten teams at a perfect five and 0 or better face off against one another. It is so good. I cannot wait for week seven. I sit around my apartment just looking out into the distance saying, is it Saturday yet? Because that's all I want in life. I'm surprised you're not asking, is it Clemson week yet for Syracuse? Because they got back coming up. I know this week's a big test too, but like, you know, are you getting a little antsy over there yet or not quite? I mean, Jim, as a man that used to live in Syracuse, New York, you understand what a Saturday is like around the JMA wireless dome. I don't know that. I moved before they renamed it, so I'm good. I got out of there. I mean, I only know the carrier dome as well. Oftentimes it's quite quiet on a Saturday afternoon before a Syracuse football game, not this Saturday. One of those six top 25 tilt Syracuse number 18 in the country, hosting number 15 NC State. Over 45,000 tickets already sold for the dome, Jim. Talk about a home field advantage. I'm in town next week for a wedding. I kind of wish it were this week instead. A little jealous of that atmosphere. It's going to be a lot of fun over in Syracuse. And we'll talk about that game. We'll go ahead, Ed. The little Michigan voice in my head is saying, it's 45,000 tickets a lot. I mean, 30% capacity at the big house. Can't fault you. Can't fault you. Obviously, the big house is one of the best theaters in all of college football. And this weekend for a top 10 tilt between Penn State and Michigan, oh boy, it's going to be really good. It's going to be rocking, that is for sure. We'll start things off with that game. In a bit, but first, a quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to Cover In The Spread, wherever you get your podcasts. And while you're there, make sure you leave us a rating review. If you like what you hear, you can get us wherever you get your podcasts. We got podcasts every weekday, NFL week six preview coming up tomorrow and our prop betting preview coming up on Friday as well. I gave my first look at week six lines on yesterday's show as well. TwistedT and FanDuel joined forces to bring you a one-of-a-kind contest series. It gives you a chance to compete for your share of thousands of dollars in a site credit. Introducing TwistedT's college football picks, a sports betting focused contest series that's entirely free to play. The contest is simple. Each college football game will be assigned money line, spread and total markets with assigned points to each market. All you have to do is make six selections based on those three markets and earn points for each correct selection you made. At the end of the day, your score ranks among the best in the contest. You'll be eligible for your share of site credit to FanDuel.com slash TwistedT picks and make your picks. And remember, please drink responsibly. Now, Ben, this week's slate is, like I said, off the rails with how good it is. And as a result, we'll get a lot of public interest in these games. Now, that can work a couple of different ways because it could be, okay, a lot of money in these markets. That could make the markets more efficient. But also, it's a lot more public money. So how do you handle things when we have these kinds of weeks where there are very high-profile games that could go either way from that perspective? Jim, the NFL is a lot different from college football in terms of line movement that you see throughout the week because it's a football game. We know these lines in college since when they open up early on Sunday before we even get the refreshed AP poll that might position it differently in terms of that public perception of the game. We see ranked teams that jump into the top 25 still not get any credit in the lines. It's a different aspect than that of the NFL. It's something we discuss all the time on college football today. The show that I host our college football pregame show on Saturday as well from a narrative perspective, if Illinois pulls off the upset and or in this case, Minnesota pulls off the upset over Illinois from the rankings perspective on Saturday. The unranked gophers go into Champaign and knocked off a ranked team. But no, it's a six and a half point spread in favor of Minnesota, despite the fact that you line, I ranked for the first time since 2011. So there's that public perception, the narrative based on rankings in college football because of the tradition and pageantry of it versus what the actual ratings and the numbers have to say. And oftentimes I think early line movement is that sharp non-public money starting to manipulate the line. The most line movement we see though is Friday night into Saturday morning. It's always a very interesting thing for me that hosts the daily show, always checking in on those college football lines because I love it first and foremost. But then we get to the show on Saturday morning. I went to bed early on Friday. Get up early on Saturday morning. I have to look once again because that's when we see the most movement. A six and a half point spread that I knew earlier in the week on a Wednesday might be four and a half or might be seven and a hook added on because that's when we see the most movement on a Saturday morning. And to me, that's more the public attention as we get ready for college football. It's not a lot of people trying to get the best of a number to beat aside to have an edge like we see with NFL handicapping. It's, oh, it's Saturday, it's college football. This is fun. My alma mater is playing this team. I'm gonna go have beers with my friends at the bar and watch this game. Let's get in on the numbers. That's when I think we see the most movement and at least in my experience or estimation, it's more of the public side. So do you find yourself betting in two zones, betting on Sundays when you can, but then also looking at the markets again on Saturday to see if they've moved in a way that's more favorable for you? Certainly so, Jim. I go back to last week. Kansas and TCU was a top 20 tilt. That line was bonkers. It opened up at five and a half in favor of TCU. I thought to myself, oh, it's a pretty big number right there. It moved down to four and a half almost immediately. And then the rest of the week, it worked back to the Horned Frogs. They closed as a seven and a half point favorite. So if you got the line when it closed with all the money coming in on TCU, you would have covered with Kansas. And the Jayhawks remain the only team at the Power Five level that is perfect against the spread, although they did suffer their first loss last weekend. So yes, it is something that I look at often. And if I really feel strongly about a side, I'll jump in early. If I want to wait to see where the public is going to move in, because the numbers in college football aren't, not that they're not as sharp. They're not going to be a bad number out there, but it's not as close of a gap where the edges are as tight in the NFL where to see an eight and a half point favorite is like seeing a 24 and a half point favorite in college football. So I think there's some more of that market movement and manipulation that I generally wait a little bit longer in the week. The TCU game is great because you had the money coming in at six and a half and stuff like that. You get seven and a half money comes back in the other way. It's like everyone's happy. Like that doesn't happen maybe not sports folks, but like it was a kind of a everyone's happy depending on when they bought in kind of game which doesn't happen that often. Yeah, absolutely. So, and it was a great game. Two of the best offenses in the big 12 and Jalen Daniels for Kansas, Max Duggan for TCU. And now the Horned Frogs, one of the two remaining unbeaten in all of the big 12 and they get to take on Oklahoma State this weekend in the game that might decide the big 12 title race right here and right now. Absolutely. I know I liked TCU last week. I talked about it on the show. I think I saw it close at seven. So it was seven and a half and got back to seven eventually. I think it came in around seven at the end because the seven and a half got hammered the other way. Again, everyone's happy. And then I liked the over at 67 and I think that got, I think that moved way up. So it was 68 and a half and we talked Wednesday. It closed at 70 and a half. So you get, if you got 68 and a half had that half point still, that still got you there. No, I bet it's at 67 and a half. So it was clear which of those two was the better bet, which the results. I had to do errands that day. So I was on my phone, I was at Bed Bath and Beyond, like a true man on a Saturday. And I was watching the first quarter and I was like, what's going on? Daniel's got hurt. And I was like, man, it's not going to get there. And then it just went nuclear in the second half. It was sweet. It was crazy. It was crazy. All right, Ben, most important question of the show. Can we rename you Big Ten, Ben? You started with your biggest knowledge of the Big Ten. So we want to talk to you about Penn State at Michigan. We know you have extensive knowledge here. This game opened Michigan greater than a seven point favorite down to six and a half. Total right now, a fan dual 51 and a half. Obviously a big game, maybe Michigan's only big game before they travel down to Columbus. What are you seeing in the smash up? It's such a fascinating game to me, Ed, because in recent history between these two teams, the series history, home field advantage has been such an important factor for those outcomes. Last two years, not so much. 2021, Michigan goes on the road. Last year, to Beaver Stadium, they get a win 21-17. It was a bad year for Penn State. They only won seven games. It was the best year under Harbaugh from Michigan, winning the Big Ten title, beating Ohio State for the first time and getting to the college football playoff. The year before in 2020 was terrible for both of these teams. So I call that an outlier. And the 2020 college football season was weird across the entire country, certainly in the Big Ten. And that was Penn State going into the big house in Ann Arbor and winning a game. So two kind of weird years here in 2020 and 2021. But from 2016 to 2019, home field advantage was key. In those four years, the two games in State College, Penn State won, and the two games in Ann Arbor, Michigan won. And the average margin of victory for the home team in those four years was 27.5 points per game. We're talking blowouts. We're talking huge, decisive wins for Michigan, like in Ann Arbor, in 2018, 42 to 7. Big, decisive victories that were much more than this single score spread would indicate for this year's game at 6.5. I think the market is working in an interesting way. I've been high on Penn State all year. I had a tweet that I got a lot of slack for earlier on. I was sitting in my apartment on a late August evening thinking to myself, man, I'm excited for Big 10 football. I said, I think there is an unranked team in the Big 10 that will finish the year in the top 10. And that team in my mind was Penn State because of the established ground game that I thought having the consistency under offensive coordinator Mike Yersic would lead for Penn State. Well, Penn State right now is a top 10 team, but we can't give all the roses to me at this moment because I said at the end of the year, and Penn State got off to a great start last year and faltered down the stretch. To me, that's where this game will be won and lost. It will truly be the ground game. It will be a Big 10 game, even though these teams are not Iowa or Illinois that are known for this type of Big 10 football. The total is at 51 and 1 half. I think you can correlate that to the spread now under a touchdown, both Michigan and Penn State, top 10 rushing defenses in all of college football. And I think there's a lot more reliability in the running backs on both sides, Nicholas Singleton, Keevon Lee, Kateron Allen for Penn State, and of course, Blake Corm and Donovan Edwards on the other side from Michigan than having any faith in the quarterbacks. Sean Clifford on the road in a big spot. We've seen that a time or two during his time with Penn State and it's young JJ McCarthy. And by far, the toughest test he has had so far in his Michigan career. Michigan has not covered in two of the three Big 10 games so far. I lean with Penn State. I think the market is bringing it the right way. I'm not sure Penn State can win this game outright. I think it will be a single score. So kudos to you if you jumped on the seven and a half because that's where it opened and it's already come down by a point. Yeah, so I had this game around Michigan by 10 which I believe is too much. I think somewhere near seven is where it's gonna end up. I think that's fair. I think Michigan wins. I don't know if it's necessarily gonna be easy. We'll see if any of that home field magic comes about. But I also do think it's interesting like James Franklin doesn't get a lot of respect across the Midwest and in Pennsylvania. And it's just weird to me. I mean, I look at this program and I know it's been a weird couple of last couple of years and they did struggle last year. But remember they were pretty good until Clifford got hurt in that Iowa game. And when you look at that program for the years before like it's pretty good. They've knocked off Ohio State and won the Big 10 East. It's been a consistently top 10 program. I don't know why he gets so much flack. I think he's a heck of a coach and a lot of respect for the program. So somewhere around seven is good with me I think here. I would agree. And Ed, it's a very fascinating thing when you examine James Franklin and some of the other coaches in the Big 10 because when James Franklin signed a huge contract extension when his name was floated with every job last year, Mel Tucker also signed his very large contract extension in East Lansing, both around 90 to $95 million, a 10 year deal that keeps them on campus for a long, long time. And people were like, why are you giving James Franklin this much? Penn State started 0 and 5 in 2020 and then won four straight games. But they started out and they were the number three team in the country in that game in Iowa City. And before Sean Clifford got bounced, they were winning that football game. And Iowa then wins and becomes the number two team in the country. How long ago it feels that the Iowa Hawkeyes were the second ranked team in all of college football. But in that span that we talk about the 2016 to 2019 in terms of the series history for Penn State in Michigan, in those same four years, Penn State won 11 games, three of the four seasons. They were a consistently strong program in new year six goals, hovering around the top 10, top 15 all season long. That's the foundation I think in state college that James Franklin has set and it's been a weird two year span, but that's kind of what they're performing at at least right now. Again, we'll see how they finish this season. Absolutely, right? Like James Franklin's problem when he was talking about it pre-pandemic was like, how do we get to the next level? Like how are we consistently a playoff team? Yeah, quarterback. And it doesn't, it just, yeah, I mean, well, I mean, seriously, it was freaking great. Yeah. A great college program. It killed people. So, yeah, I don't know, it's interesting. I don't really understand it, but. And then you look at like, but Elliott's like blue chip ratings and like Penn State is consistently like near the top. Oh, 100%. Like he recruiting the best of them in the country. I think the last three years he's had a top 15 class and that just kind of gets washed under because, you know, for whatever reason, Penn State is an elite program in my mind at least in the big 10. And they can certainly contend on a national level from their recruiting standpoint. They've still recruited so well to state college. And speaking of quarterbacks, Jim, Drew Aller, the guy that's a freshman right now that he saw play a little bit against Purdue, he's the future. He's what everybody is so excited about in state college. If Sean Clifford weren't like 30 years old, that guy would be starting. That experience is hard to pass up when you are a top 10 ranked team. Like it's hard to say no to that for sure. Let's shift focus now and talk about some SEC teams. We got Alabama at Tennessee right now, Alabama. Seven point favorite that was seven and a half earlier on. It's now down to seven total of 65 and a half. And then we were talking about this before the show. We're not going to know until Saturday the status of Bryce Young. Just that's just an accepted fact when it comes to an Alabama team. How does his status influence your view of this game? As Ed said in that conversation pre-show, I think this seven point spread is an idea that Bryce Young is going to play in this football game. Maybe some of the priors would say that Alabama should be a double digit favorite. But if you've watched Tennessee this year, Tennessee is a really good football team. Tennessee is deserving of that sixth ranking in the country. And it's mainly offensively, but on the ground, the volunteers at least defensively have been pretty good. They stifled LSU last week on the road in Bat Rouge. And yes, Jane and Daniels ended up throwing for 300 yards against that volunteers passing defense that is fourth worst in the country. And I'll get to that in just a second, but that was a negative game script that he had to throw because they were down early and often 20 to nothing against Tennessee even in valley inside Tiger State. So I think Tennessee deserves to have this be a single score spread. Seven and a half now down to seven. But I think Bryce Young will play in this football game. He dressed last week. I think that was Nick Saban saying in the way that Nick Saban would only say he could play. We don't need him out there against A&M. We're gonna run the football in the Aggies. And although it was very close for a team that was favored by 23 and a half, it was about proving him for this, but an acknowledgement that this young will be back for the Tennessee game. And this is the toughest test that Tennessee has seen. This is the toughest test that Alabama has seen. And Bryce Young on the road has not been great so far in true road tests in his young career at Alabama. And we saw Alabama struggled to cover numbers last year in the SEC as well. Their final three games, they were booked as the three touchdown are more favorite. They won all of those games, but only by single digits. So this is a very interesting game. Jim, to me, that key matchup is not Tennessee's offense that is so stinking good. The best total offense in the country, averaging 550 yards pretty much against Alabama's really good defense, a really good rushing defense, a really good total defense. They can get pressure on the quarterback with Will Anderson. That will be a key. It's does Bryce Young play? How healthy is Bryce Young? And how effective can that passing game for Alabama be against Tennessee's bad secondary? They're giving up more than 307 yards per game through the air. That is the fourth worst in college football. There are 131 FBS teams and Tennessee is 128 out of 131. That is just not good. And that would be the area I think where the biggest edge in this game favors Alabama. Yes, you can slow down Hendon Hooker in Tennessee. And yes, you can probably keep them to 21 points and you can win the football game from that manner. But Alabama's biggest advantage is Bryce Young healthy with that passing attack against the ball's defense. Unless the tough part is we're not going to know because even if he plays, it's not a guarantee that he's healthy. And it's the shoulder too. It's not his leg. It's not an ankle. It's his right throwing shoulder. So yes, that is the biggest concern because we saw Jalen Milrow fill in last week. We saw him fill in during the Arkansas game. He is an absolute freak of nature, athletically. He can run the football with the best. Let me get 91 yards and a touchdown in that mop up duty against Arkansas and was big in the ground game against A&M who that was the weakness of the A&M defense giving up a buck 70, entering the game against Alabama. Alabama ran for 288 yards against Texas A&M. That's why we talked about it leading in to that Saturday slate on the college football today show that I don't think Nick Saban, although the game was way too close and he would tell you that regardless and that it was a 23 and a half point spread. I think Nick Saban thought all week long, if Bryce isn't out there, our plan of attack is still going to be on the ground. It's still going to be with Jason MacLennan. It's still going to be with Jameer Gibbs who had close to 150 yards. We know we can run on A&M. It's not the same case this week. And that leads me to believe Bryce Young will be back but you're right, we're not gonna know. And God forbid somebody asked Saban a question about it. That ahead of Saturday, he's gonna get really mad. So we're gonna have no idea until around, I don't know 11 a.m. noon Eastern time comes Saturday and then that line could do some really late movement before the 3.30 p.m. Eastern time kick. Yeah, I know that I really like, you're pointing out how bad Tennessee's past defenses that is something that I didn't see until I just checked when you were talking about it. And it seems like, well, if you know that Bryce Young is not gonna play, Tennessee plus seven might be the easiest thing on the board right now, given that matchup, right? Yeah, but there's, you know, even sitting here right now, there's some probability that Bryce Young doesn't play or at least that he's not 100%. Tennessee plus seven might be smart there too. Yeah, it's going to be very interesting. I think we will find out how good Tennessee's offense can be because that's the other way for it in my estimation. We saw them go up early on Alabama last year in Tuscaloosa. It was really the first time a lot of the country had paid attention to the Virginia Tech transfer in Hinden Hooker and what this offense could do. I think he's going to have to be sensational in either circumstance with or without Bryce Young because Alabama's defense, as Nick Saban put it, a rebuilding year last year, Alabama's defense now is back to the level that they expect in Tuscaloosa. Will Anderson is an absolute game breaker, but that entire defensive front is very good. The 15th best sack rate in all of college football right now. So they have the ability to get to the quarterback if they can pressure Hinden Hooker, who can also get out of the pocket and run more than I think people give him advantage for. That will be a huge, huge factor where he has the third best odds when the Heisman Trophy right now. There's a chance that if Tennessee is going to be in this football game and if the volunteers pull it off, he'll be the second best priced Heisman contender, only following CJ Srao with the Buckeyes on a bye week, even ahead of Caleb Williams. And that would be an area, by the way, when props become available for this game. Player props for college don't really come out until late Friday night, early on Saturday, regardless, I would look to Hinden Hooker and his legs. The numbers have been way too small. It's been 28 and a half, 32 and a hook, 34 and a half. It's getting up there, but he's pretty much consistently gone over 40 yards rushing in the last three or four games for Tennessee. That would be a different angle of approach if that number at seven or seven and a half kind of scares you off. Ben, you mentioned that, you know, we were still kind of getting used to Hinden Hooker in the Alabama game last year. That's because this brilliant coaching staff decided to start Joe Milton. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Very true. Very true. The Michigan cast off. So at least they found their quarterback and it is working out. Indeed, pretty well. Let's talk here about Oklahoma State at TCU. TCU with three and a half point favorite, total is 68 and a half. And TCU, despite facing a back of quarterback for a lot of that game last week, did struggle. Does that change your view of them heading into a matchup with a really tough Oklahoma State team and offense? It changes my view pretty much of the entirety of the Big 12 right now, Jim. This is a team last year in Oklahoma State that made it to the Big 12 championship game because only of their defense. A top 10 defensive unit, both from the scoring perspective and points per game allowed and yardage given up as well. And then Jim Knowles, the defensive coordinator, leaves from one O State to another O State to go to Ohio State. But they bring in Derek Mason, who was the former head coach at Auburn and a really good defensive mind. So I didn't expect as much negative regression as we have seen for the Pokes defense, but we highlighted Tennessee's struggles through the air. Oklahoma State hasn't been a lot better. Tennessee is the fourth worst passing defense in the country. Oklahoma State is the sixth worst passing defense in the country. And TCU's giving up a ton of yardage as well, but their defense wasn't great last year, even under Gary Patterson before he was fired. And now it's Sonny Dykes, who really focuses only on the offensive side of the football. I think we are going to see some points. 68 and a half is an old Big 12 total, where the conference started to look more defensively, at least in the last couple of seasons. I think this is going to be a shootout. I've been high on Oklahoma State. I was surprised to see TCU greater than a field goal favorite. I looked back two weeks ago for the Pokes and what they could do against Baylor on the road in Waco. And I thought that might be the decider in the Big 12 or at least put Oklahoma State in pole position to win the conference and potentially be the Big 12's best chance of getting back to the college football playoff. This is a very tough test to have to do it twice on the road against a top 15 team yet again, and you're the one getting points. I still lean Oklahoma State, but maybe that's my preconceived notion of this Cowboys team. I think we are going to see some points. 68 and a half is a large total, even by college football standards. But I think we press close to that in this game. I don't think a lot of these offenses are going to be stopped. And we've seen Max Duggan be great now the last three weeks. We've seen Spencer Sanders have a career reemergence under Mike Gundy this year. So I think we are going to see some points. And this game is going to be huge for the Big 12 because one of these two teams is going to suffer their first loss of the season. It is going to come in conference action. There is not much wiggle room right now for the Big 12 conference in terms of getting back to the college football playoff. Pretty much as we have seen in the eight year history of the CFP up until this point, you need to be a one loss, power five conference champion. We have never seen a two loss, power five conference champion. And a lot of people are looking at Quinn Ewers in Texas right now and rightfully so. There might be a path, but you would need so much help for that to be the case. Both TCU and Oklahoma State at this moment, along with Kansas State, I guess, but their non-conference losses going to be pretty tough for the Wildcats in my estimation to overcome. TCU and Oklahoma State is the Big 12's best shot of getting back to the college football playoff. And that will be a huge evaluation for this week as well. Yeah, it's particularly tough with, you know, just so many good teams in the SEC. You could have Michigan going down to Columbus at 11-0. Yep, right? So there's, yeah, that'll be interesting. Yeah, very much so. Ben, any other games on the board that piqued your interest this week? There's a couple that I really enjoy. Of course, Syracuse and NC State, the line working against my orange, but Syracuse not only a perfect five and 0 team, four and one against the spread started out last year as the best cover team in the country as well. In their first nine, eight and one against the number, don't talk about the final three games of the year for Syracuse, but a big thing in that game. NC State has a really good defense, especially up front. How do they use, how does Robert and I, the new offensive coordinator there in central New York, utilize Sean Tucker, who's one of the best running backs in the country, the sixth leading rusher from last year. In games against good rushing defenses like Purdue, even Virginia, who's not a good rushing defense, it was a very simple game script. They need to get him out in space. That's how Syracuse wins and covers that football game. Speaking of games on the ground, Illinois and Minnesota, there are four running backs in all of college football that have run for a hundred or more yards in each of their games this year. Chase Brown, who is the leading rusher in the country, for Illinois, Muhammad Ibrahim, who did not play in Minnesota's only loss against Purdue, which was shocking. We didn't know that until he dressed on the sidelines and didn't get into the game because of an ankle injury, PJ Fleck deciding to keep him out. That's how bad he must have been injured because without Muhammad Ibrahim, they lost and they were a perfect 4-0 with Moe in there. That is going to be my focus. I can't wait to see what the rushing yards totals are for both Ibrahim and Chase Brown on Saturday. The Illini into the top 25 for the first time in more than a decade. They have the best total defense in all of college football. They have the third best rushing defense in all of college football. They are doing exactly what Brett Bilima is known to do and have success with in Big 10 play. And on the other side, Minnesota's still very good as well. Not only has Moe run for over 100 yards in all four of their games this year, Muhammad Ibrahim has run for over 100 yards in 13 straight games for the Golden Gophers. That is how important he is for this Minnesota team. If he plays and if he is healthy, I look at that rushing yards prop for sure. It's funny to get some prop thoughts on there. So we haven't had a lot of college football prop discussion on the show before. I will say this. Props are a huge thing in college football that people don't often look to. And the edges you can have in the prop market, I think are a little bit more discernible than they are in the NFL. The tough thing is they don't come out until Saturday morning. And because the talent gap even in conference play is a lot wider, you have teams and you have players that have ridiculous numbers. Like for instance, on this Wednesday night there's a college football game in the Sun Belt between Louisiana Lafayette and Marshall. Cologne-Laborne is one of those four running backs for Marshall that has rushed for over 100 yards per game so far this season. Done that in all five of the Thundering Herds games. His first initial rushing yards prop as it was put out on the Fandall Sportsbook on Tuesday was 142 and a half. I don't care how good a guy has been. That's a ridiculous expectation. It is now all the way down to 132 and a half. That's awesome. Did you have an opinion on the Illinois-Minnesota side? Yeah, I hate it. Six and a half. It makes sense that Minnesota is the favorite side by nearly a touchdown. I'm high on Minnesota. The one game they lost was without Mohamed Ibrahim. He means the world to that team. We'll see how good Illinois is this week and a huge game in the Big Ten West. I wouldn't bet the side because it could be a game that is decided by a single score that comes down to the final possession of whoever can run out the clock first and it could be a field goal game. I would look more at the props from that perspective and of course because it is principle and precedent in my mind you take the under of the 39 and a half. There's no other way to bet it. Yeah, ignore the 51 and a half point total for Michigan. We gotta get 39 and a half. It's Big Ten Ben, man. We can't have to forget the high totals here. Ed, it sounds like your numbers have a read on the Syracuse game too. What do you see in there? Yeah, absolutely. Sorry, Ben. I'm not buying into the Syracuse team. I can't blame you, Ed. But the thing that you didn't bring up which is I think the most interesting aspect of the game is Devon Leary, the NC State quarterback. He is hurt and I don't think it matters. I've been, so people have been hyping up this NC State team since the end of last season and I didn't really understand it. Their offensive numbers were really bad last year. I understand what's going on on the defensive side of the ball. They've been excellent both last year and this year have a ton of talent. As you mentioned, Ben, I think they're in the hundreds when I look at passing success rate adjusted for opponent. And when you watch the games, Devon Leary looks the part. He's tall and athletic and thick and I just don't think you can throw the ball. I'm not sure that he matters in this game as much as some people might think. My number is actually the favorite NC State in this game. You have to make some kind of adjustment for the starting quarterback but they brought in this Jack Chambers guy that through one pass in five possessions last week. So it looks like it's gonna be a completely different offensive attack, probably gonna run the ball a lot. And North Carolina State, I mean their defense is simply gonna be the best unit on the field in this game. So I like NC State plus three and a half. Don't like plus three as much but definitely a plus three and a half. I like this game. I just don't think Leary means that much. I can't fault you for picking against my orange. I do understand it and I am a little bit worried about Syracuse being able to cover a number against a really good defense because again, I think at times we get a little stale, stagnant if you will in the offensive play design when it's just Sean Tucker, stretch play, Sean Tucker up the middle. We don't even pull a guard to try to change how it looks for the defensive front, all that stuff. So anyway, yeah, I can't fault you Ed. I will say that. So that game is the same time as Alabama, Tennessee. Do you have like a multi monitor setup where you can work out there or what's the setup for Ben Stevens on a Saturday? So my favorite thing about the college football today crew, I go into our studios, Jim, in Homendale, New Jersey, kind of down the shore. It's a hike for me from New York City but I do it to be in person. I think it puts out the best product and it's just great to have that personal interaction in studio altogether. But on top of that, the CFT crew every Saturday following the show, we go to one of two bars out there down the shore in New Jersey, a place called Tommy's Tavern, no free ads or Red Rock, no free ads. We have no standards. You can give out as many free ads as you want. So they have, I mean, we sit there at the bar. It's generally pretty quiet and there's six or seven TVs that we watch everything and I got my phone going and all that stuff. So hopefully we'll be able to watch both of those games. I won't be at a Syracuse bar per se but I'll be keeping track of it all and Minnesota, Illinois at noon. So yeah, there's a lot to get to. Not to trash talk New York but better betting markets available in Jersey too. Oh, that's where the cross are. Very few player props in New York State. It's ridiculous, but we can save that for another conversation. Yeah, I don't live there anymore. So I don't have to deal with it. So I'm no complaints on my end anymore. It is all good. That is Ben Stevens. Check him out on Twitter at Ben Scott Stevens. Find his work over on Sports Grid both at Saturday morning show and also the morning after as well. Ben, good luck to your orange this week. Good luck to you on your bets. And just enjoy it, which should be a fun week. I'm going to enjoy. I can tell you that very, very much. This is going to be an incredible Saturday. I said pretty much every weekend this year. This is my favorite Saturday of the year. I truly mean it for week seven. They were all appetizers for this week. And you can find Ed on Twitter as well at the Power Rank. Ed, what is going on for you this week on the Power Rank and on the football analytics show? Yeah, check out my free sports betting newsletter. I do seven nuggets Saturday, every Saturday at 10 a.m. Eastern. And I have definitely been doubling down on the humor aspect of it. There's also some good sports betting advice. But try to make it as entertaining as possible because that's one of my tenants with the newsletter. So check it out, thepowerrank.com. Alrighty, you can find the football analytics show as well wherever you get podcasts. You can subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get podcasts as well. I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis. Want to thank you all for tuning in. Good luck to you with your bets. We're back once again tomorrow to break down NFL. Week number six. This has been covering the spread right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network.