 Hello and welcome to this month's, not this month's, yeah it is this month, isn't it? This month's monthly, I nearly said Monday, monthly catch up with me, Michael Houston, and my colleague in Toronto, Colin Sosinski. And as so happens it's actually quite an opportune moment to really talk about what's going on in the markets because today of all days we've had some very important events. We've had the UK budget just now and trying to pick over the bones of that. First and foremost let's just get the risk warnings out of the way. So we're going to pick over the bones of the UK budget. Not really that much there to sort of drive markets one way or the other though. The FTSE is having a good day largely as a result of some of the measures announced by the Chancellor, particularly the oil and gas sector which has been given a number of tax breaks due to the falling oil price which is again falling quite sharply. After that inventory data that we saw come out of the US just about half an hour ago where we got another build of 9.6 million barrels and the storage glut is getting bigger and bigger and bigger. And as a result we're seeing West Texas crude prices hitting levels last seen in early 2009. So we'll have a quick look at what the outlook is for crude. We'll look at the reasons for the massive gap between Brent crude and WTI and whether or not the falling WTI price will actually drag the Brent price down with it. Have a look at some of the key euro crosses. Have a look at some of the key equity markets as well in light of the fact that we've got a very important meeting coming up in around about three hours time. The latest Federal Reserve rate meeting and investors are really sort of frothing at the mouth I think Colin aren't they? They're expecting some form of change or dropping completely of forward guidance. So what I'll do is I will hand the mic over to you and you can basically talk to everyone about what you're expecting and then we can talk about what I'm expecting and then hopefully we'll get something that sort of comes somewhere in the middle. Absolutely, thank you Michael. It is a big day for trading in the US today with the FOMC meeting. It's coming out at 2 p.m. Eastern time which is 6 p.m. in London. It's a four-hour time difference this month so be aware of that. Ever since we've had the last couple of non-farm payroll reports have come in huge for the United States and we've had a lot of upward revisions. In terms of the Fed's dual mandate, the unemployment side is going like gangbusters and has encouraged the Fed obviously. Last year they stopped their QE3 program and they've been heading towards raising interest rates this year. The market has been generally expecting the Fed to start raising interest rates at its June meeting and the speculation has gone back and forth between earlier and later and there's two pieces to the Fed decision that we're going to be watching for. The first one is the language of can be patient. Fed Chair Yellen and others have said basically patient means two meetings. If they leave it in, it means no interest rate increases in June. If they take it out, it means that they could start raising interest rates in June. Last meeting they were still patient. Potentially. Yeah, because as soon as June it could be later. I should clarify that because I'll talk to that more in a second. So as soon as June they could start raising interest rates and they've talked before about that in their last minutes they said, well, before we start raising rates we'll change our guidance and some of the members have talked before about wanting to move to a meeting by meeting decision making process rather than just saying we're not going to do anything for a certain period of time. Just dropping the guidance completely. Yes, and just dropping it completely. So it looks as though basically after June all bets are off. It doesn't mean that they'll start in June, but odds are anytime after June they could start to do something depending on how the data goes. And so the other thing we want to watch for is not just the statement but also the tables and the Fed member projections. And there's two in particular. One is what I call the connecting the dots, which is the Fed member expectations for interest rates at the end of the year. Because then you ask yourself, well, how are they going to get there? And in December you had a core group of Fed members that were saying they want interest rates between about 75 to 101% by the end of the year. That was about nine members. There is a hawkish group of about six members that were looking more like 1.5 to 2. And there is a dovish group of two members that were saying we don't want to do anything this year. But I mean, that's pie in the sky, isn't it? Isn't it? That's pie in the sky, really, isn't it, Carlin? 0.75 to 1. I mean, that's four times what rates are already. Yes, but they're already nothing. I mean, as you're coming, as anything, when you come off 0... 0 to 0.25. That's the corridor. There's an interest rate corridor. That's the Fed funds rate. And that's the Fed funds rate. It's 0.25 to 0. Yeah, what you're looking at is if you were going to get to 1% by the end of the year, you're looking at three interest rate increases. So if you take the gradual approach and go and do a quarter point every other meeting, you start in June. If you want to get there and do a more delay but be more aggressive and basically put it into the back half of the year, you can start as late as September and do three increases in a row at the end of the year. So the Fed still has quite a bit of flexibility. And in the past, I mean, we're talking about going from incredibly low interest rates to getting back to something that's halfway back to your long-term goal of 2% and back a few years ago when some countries did raise interest rates coming up out of this, like Canada went from 50 basis points to 1%. And at the time, it didn't do anything to hurt the economy because it was coming up out of a recession and things were ramping up. But it gives them the flexibility now to come back and cut rates when things did slow again. So I think you'll see some global interest rates an awful lot higher then. Not necessarily. Fed was running QE one at the time. Were they? Yeah, but I mean, I'm talking global interest rates as in, you know, China and countries like that, weren't they significantly higher? Yeah. I mean, that's really where I think you and I tend to part company in terms of what we're expecting. But in terms of this chart that we've got in front of you, what do you expect with respect to the S&P if the Fed does drop patients? Sure. If the Fed drops patients, I think you're starting to see this again. I think you might see a drop back towards the lower end of this trading range that's emerged between about 2040 and about 2120 is a channel that's starting to pull out. Maybe 2,000 as the round number is your next support after that. But basically what you're looking at is the S&P has had a huge move up. If you do see the Fed drop patient, then you'll probably see it just kind of drift lower. I think over the slide you saw last week and the stabilization in the last few days is telling us that I think that's already been priced in. And so then the other piece we want to look at, Michael, as I talked about connecting the dots, and as you've talked to, and I think you'll probably want to talk to more, is the inflation expectation because the question is even if they say, okay, well, all bets are off after June. Well, I outlined two scenarios. You could start in June. You could start in September. You could start at any meeting in between. You could start later. And I guess even if they do drop the patient, the June lift-off isn't carved in stone by any stretch. And maybe you want to talk to that in inflation. Well, yeah, because I think if the Fed does drop patients and they cut their growth forecasts and they cut their inflation forecasts, what does that mean for a rise in rates in June? I think it virtually takes it off the table. Yeah, I agree with you. I think it would have to put it off to September because you would expect that if they're heading into raising interest rates that they would be doing at a time when they're also raising their expectations. And if they're not raising their expectations, then you've got to wonder, right? I mean, the two would go hand in hand. You'd think that. You would think that, wouldn't you? If the Fed had to be consistent, and the Fed has a 2% inflation, a 2% inflation target, and it's core inflation. And core inflation is currently around about 1.4%, 1.5%, I think, and it's tracking lower. And we've just seen oil prices just hit another six-year low. Swedish central bank have cut rates again in the last half hour. 20 central banks have cut rates this year already. And some of them more than once. You look at what US housing starts did yesterday. You look at what US manufacturing did earlier this week. You look at what US retail sales have done. You look at what US durable goods have done over the past three or four months. They're all tracking lower. So I would actually argue that the jobs numbers are the outliers here. And they're actually not, you know, they're probably not consistent of a strongly growing economy. Because when you actually put them all together, if there's no wages growth, there's no inflation, and the US consumer is reluctant to spend money, despite the fact that oil prices is more than halved in the past six months, then what's stopping them? Are they paying down debt or do they just not feel comfortable? So this is my concern. I think there's a consensus that people think the Fed are going to raise rates, and I'm just not sure that they will. But, you know, it is what it is. The market's surprising it in. I think really it's going to be very muddy in terms of what the markets will do at six o'clock this evening when Mrs. Yellen sits down and holds her press conference, and really it's about how she manages the message if they remove patients. If they don't remove patients and they leave it in there, I think you can expect the dollar to unwind lower very, very quickly. And the stock market could absolutely take off? Yeah, the stock market could go back to 2085 here, which is at the moment a significant resistance level on the S&P. What's been holding down US markets has been this expectation that, well, it's not quite true. There's not a question of what's holding them down. What's stopping them from going up even higher is an expectation that monetary policy between the US Fed and the European Central Bank is going in different directions. I'm not sure that it is, but we will find out soon enough. But if patients stays in there, then I think you can expect to see a move higher in stocks. And even if they take it out and then Mrs. Yellen is very dovish, that could actually help put a floor under stocks if we do get a bit of a sell-off around about 2084. I think it's a similar sort of story with the Dow, isn't it, with respect to this chart here. We are looking to track a little bit lower on the oscillator, but we know to our costs that sometimes that's not a true reflection of where the market can go. So it's going to be quite interesting in terms of what happens over the course of the next few sessions, but we can once again see here on this chart the key levels on the Dow are these peaks through here around about 18,000 and these troughs around about 17,625. So I would guess we're probably going to get a sharp, these are your barriers with slap bang in the middle of it and I'd probably steer clear of it until the dust settles. Yeah, and on top of the US indices, I think we'll see probably a lot of volatility in gold, Euro-dollar, and really any dollar pairs, CAD-dollar, Cable, and all the rest of them, I think we'll probably have. So let's have a quick look at them. So Euro-dollar, I think there's potential for that to be building up for a bit of a short squeeze. At the moment, it's not immediately obvious if we look at this line that I've drawn in here, highest from December, currently come in all the way back above 109, that trend line. I'm not looking at that. What I'm looking at is this resistance line at 106,85. I think that for me is the key level. Well, what I think is more interesting here is actually if we strip this chart down even further, to say the one hour chart, the lows are getting progressively higher. They're not particularly strong, but every time we track lower we are finding a little bit of support at slightly higher levels. That being said, we're still struggling between 106,30 and 106,85. So I think any expectation that the Fed is anything other than hawkish tonight could see Euro-dollar squeeze higher. So it's certainly worth keeping on that. And the fact of the matter remains, I think everyone thinks Euro is going to go down. Yeah, it's a very crowded trade. Yeah. I think at this point you're getting pretty washed out. Short term, longer term it's still weak, but in short term I think that says it all, doesn't it? It does. 93%. Cash positions, 93% sure. There's only 1% down from this time yesterday. So basically the markets are banking on a fairly hawkish Fed this evening. And even if the Fed are hawkish, I'm not too sure how much further upside there is in Euro-dollar. Basically because I think it's pretty much one way. But at the moment this doesn't really tell me anything on the dailies. So I'm a little bit cautious. But what I have seen on Euro-sterling actually does concern me a little bit. I certainly think there's potential for a bit of a short squeeze there. We've seen that on this 4-hour chart here. It's going to break out. It's giving the impression that it's starting to break out. And a lot of that is probably more sterling weakness than Euro-strength given the run that we've seen over the course of the past few months. But we've certainly got very strong, impulsive up moves in those candlesticks there. We've got a strong impulsive move there, and there, and there, and there. And that suggests that the market is short. Yes. Could you also put the RSI up on that, Michael? Yeah, I can. You'll see a turn in momentum. Just the ordinary one, yeah? Ten of N? Yeah. You're using a shorter chart. If you put it up on the dailies chart, the RSI is just rolling up out of a downtrend. But what we've also got here is a bullish engulfing day. So that bullish engulfing day generally tends to be the precursor to a slight trend change, and it is quite strong. What we've also got here is not quite a hammer, but it's pretty close to it. It's got a very long shadow on the downside. So that does seem to suggest that we could actually be getting ready for a bit of a squeeze higher towards 73 to the levels that we last saw at the beginning of this month. We've seen a very, very strong down move over the course of the past few months. But I think there's potential for a little bit of a short squeeze, but we'll actually come back to these levels here. Now, what could cause that? Well, obviously, the pound is weak, and the pound is weak for a reason. We did see a significant improvement. We've seen some fairly positive economic data this morning, but a heart from average earnings. Average earnings actually dropped back below 2%. They came in at 1.8%. Given what Carney said last week and given what the minutes showed this morning, it suggests that a rate rise is pretty much further out into the future, and that's undermining the pound against not only the dollar, which has taken a significant hit against, but also now to a lesser extent against the euro where it's had a very strong positive run. There is potential we could actually start to track back to 73. So it could be sterling weakness that drives that, or it could also be a bit of euro's strength. We'll soon know after the meeting, but I certainly think in terms of the short squeeze, maybe the euro's probably got more legs in it rather than the pound, which has broken out on the downside and broken out quite substantially below 1.48.30, which was actually a significant breakout level. I'll bring that chart up once it decides that it wants to call it. On the interim, Michael, while we're talking about cable and sterling, we've got the end graph today off of some of the budget in the data, but perhaps we also want to look at this longer term weakening trend. How much of this is US dollar strength and how much of this is uncertainty related to the election that's coming up? To the election. I think there's a certain amount of uncertainty with respect to the election, but I think you're overestimating it slightly. Generally, if you look back at the 2010 election and the lead-up to that, we saw a significant bout of sterling weakness, so that's nothing new. I mean, basically generally markets don't like the uncertainty that changing governments can bring, but certainly in terms of currency, sterling before an election is nothing new. We got it in 2009 when the pound was up around 171 and it traded as low as 142.30 in the aftermath of the May 2010 election, so I certainly think there's potential for us to maybe go all the way back there. Do I think there's potential for us to go much lower? Only if the US decide that they want to push through a rate rise sometime this year, because I certainly don't think that the UK is going to be raising rates this year, given concerns about what's happening over the pond in Europe or over the channel in Europe. But this trend in the pound against the dollar is quite significant. We've broken this 148.30 level. We've been in a downtrend since the end of February. If we look at why I drew in that 148.30 level, we can see there it was these twin lows that we saw in 2013. This week we broke below that. You've retested, haven't you? We have retested it, but we haven't got back above it, as we can see from these two days here. Technically, that's quite bearish. For the time being, what I'm expecting to see here is further downside in the pound, which does tie in a little bit with my euro sterling rebound trade, because the sterling will weaken. You may find that euro dollar goes up faster than the pound against the dollar, but that will push euro sterling higher. So 148.30 is really the key level we need to get back above to basically get out of this move down from the 155.50 highs that we saw in mid-February. Yes, we really were up above 155 towards the end of last month, and now here we are nearly 10 cents lower at around about 146.70.80. So we've come quite a long way. A lot of that is down to a little bit more dovishness in terms of the interest rate outlook for the UK relative to the US, and you're seeing that trade unwind in the pound against the dollar. But to be fair, the dollar's up pretty much against everything. So the pound is probably playing catch-up to a certain extent with the dollar's gains. But I think if you're looking at an indication of what the markets are thinking about the dollar, look at dollar yen, because the dollar yen is tracking lower and it's on the lows of the day. So I think the markets are starting to get a little bit nervous of the fact that we could actually see a slightly dovish Fed at this afternoon's meeting. And certainly I think if we take out these series of lows through here, then we could actually see quite an abrupt sell-off. And that level there is 120.60. Why is 120.60 important? I'll tell you why. If I extend that back, I bet it cuts through those two peaks there within 10 or 15 points of it anyway. Yeah, very close. And then further back and look at that. Yeah. So 120.50.60, ladies and gentlemen, there's quite a key support level on dollar yen. If we drop below that, then I would guarantee that there's probably quite a few stop losses on long positions down through that level there. Let's look at the client sentiment on that. Again, cash positions are sitting that long dollar yen. That's up 22% on the day today. And that's why you're seeing this. I think this is why you're seeing this little bit of a sell-off here in dollar yen. And probably why you're probably going to see a drop in yields on US Treasuries if we get a significantly dovish Federal Reserve. So certainly worth keeping an eye on that. So what's driving dollar yen? Is it Euro yen or is it Euro dollar? Well, I wanted to show this chart to you because it's actually quite interesting. Look at Euro yen. It's found a very good... 129.2025 is quite a key level, I think, on Euro yen. So it's worth keeping an eye out on any spike higher because will it be Euro yen or Euro dollar that pushes that lower or will it be dollar yen? I would suggest it will probably be dollar yen. If we break above it, then we could well get a significant short squeeze into this cloud, a chimoku cloud. One thing I have noticed is FTSE 100 has suddenly gone for a new little trip to the top side. That's really taken off in the last little while. Yeah, it has. It was over that this much. Now, I think that's been driven largely by the oil and gas sector with those tax breaks that Mr. Osborne announced. They were well-trailed, but I think they were slightly more than people expected. But also financial services, Hargreaves lands down St. James's Place. They've jumped sharply because of the relaxation of the annuities rules and obviously the help to buy IFA as well as the abolition or the implementation of a tax-free allowance on your first £1,000 of savings. I think that's actually helped push the share prices of investment firms up. And I think we can see that Hargreaves lands down is actually now probably near the top of the footsie. It's around about 3% up. But also help to buy IFA has helped push housing stocks up as well. Taylor Wimpy is up 3% today as well. So I think all in all, some of those budget measures have helped on the margins. Haven't helped the banks so much. The raising of the bank levy has knocked banking shares down. Lloyd's Bank is down ever so slightly and RBS is also down ever so slightly. But certainly this breakthrough, this resistance level at 68.60, classic buying opportunity on the breakout. I think I touched upon it in my weekly video. It was a big, big resistance level. Generally when resistance is break or supports break, they reverse their roles. This double top here, we broke out. We broke lower. Hit our target, which was around about 67.50. Broke through, went all the way down to 66.80. Accident resistance on the way came back. Now it's busted through. Now it's probably going to act as support. And the big question now is, are we going to see a test of the all-time highs? Judging by the impulsiveness of these two four-hour candles, there does appear to be an awful lot of momentum behind this move. And while we're only an hour away from the close, I would be surprised if we actually saw it break above this all-time high. But there is a good chance that we could go for a little trip higher before we come back down. Because it's with anything, momentum's everything. But at these sorts of levels, I think certainly the market's going to want to have another go at it. Yeah, that's a very strong trend behind it at this point. Perhaps, Michael, you could bring up the DAX because that's been acting a little bit differently here. We've had nine successive weeks of gains. This will be the tenth week of gains if we see it. But at the moment, it does appear to be running out of a bit of gas. Yeah, that was huge on the trade. It just looked like it's gone totally parabolic and just really getting pretty much overdone. And you can see it on the stochastic, how overbought it's gotten down at the bottom there. And this is a trading correction. This is a proxy for the Euro though, isn't it? This is a proxy for the Euro. A weak Euro strong DAX. So what's going to reverse that proxy? Or is the proxy going to remain intact? If the DAX comes down, will it be because the Euro rebounds? Because they have been moving in conjunction with each other. It could be. And the Euro, as we've seen looking across multiple pairs, the Euro has been bottoming out. It's looking like it's getting pretty washed out here. And the DAX really was getting pretty overdone to the upside. And that's been fully baked. And here, on this side, you're looking at a pretty normal trading retrenchment that was probably overdue just because it got so overextended. Well, we've also got an inside bar yesterday. More an inside candle or a Harami. And that doesn't necessarily mean that we're going to get a reversal. But I think it does say that the market is a little bit nervous about being overly long at these sorts of levels. I wouldn't say that it means necessarily we're going to get a reversal because we did get a little bit of a pullback there. But then we just carried on as we were before. But certainly that 12,200 level does appear to be a little bit of a resistance in the short to medium term. The bottom of that today's shadow was around 11.8. So maybe you're moving into a sideways channel that you might sit in for a few days. I think if we close. 11.8 and 12.2. I think if we close below 12,000, we might see a washout of long positions. True. I think you never underestimate that trend line. Never underestimate the value of psychological numbers and the fact that we close below it. But having seen the cash positions in terms of longs and shorts, it's pretty equal. It's pretty equal in terms of where we are. 53% against 47%. So on that basis, we could go either way. Yes. There's not a lot of conviction in that right now and clearly more indecision than conviction. True. Again, we could see it go either way here. I also suggest that maybe you go sideways for a while, perhaps through the end of the month when you bump up against that trend line again. Well, we've also got a weekend coming up. I think what was quite interesting was the narrative coming out of Europe with respect to a potential Greek exit or Grexit as they like to call it. The head of Eurogroup yesterday, Jerome Dyselblum, said for the very first time that it may be required that they need to implement capital controls to keep Greece in the euro. Now, I've never heard them talk that way before. I think that was very, very significant because in terms of capital controls, the only country that still has them at the moment is Cyprus. And now they're talking about implementing them in Greece. Well, it's not exactly a vote of confidence and we've got a weekend coming up and Greece has to pay another 2 billion euros to the IMF on Friday where they're going to find it down the back of the sofa. So they need to find that money and I'm not sure where they're going to get it from. So we could be in for a bit of a surprise on Friday because certainly the narrative from government officials between Greek officials and German officials is not particularly great. You know, you've got Fingergate, Mr. Waddufakis basically giving the finger to Germany. I mean, granted that was three years ago and I think German media are being a little bit mischievous in wheeling that out again but it does put him in a difficult position as well as that Paris match photo shoot which I think was rather advised. But never mind. So at the moment there is growing frustration amongst EU officials with respect to what's going on in Greece so at the moment I'm not optimistic that it's going to be resolved satisfactorily. And if there is a Greek exit that could manifest itself into a little bit of a selloff but as I say we don't know how that will, I don't know how that will ripple out if it does happen. And there'd be more uncertainty than anything because I don't think the Greece leaving would have such a huge effect on an economy like Germany. It's more the uncertainty and the domino effect I think. Well I think it's the domino effect of default losses throughout the European banking sector. And that more than anything I think is probably going to be more significant. Let's quickly have a look at crude oil because I think we want to have a look at where we're going to go next. This is a one-day chart for WTI. They may look as if there's an awful lot of tram lines there but I think you can sort of see where I've drawn the support and resistance lines and why this particular line that I drew recently is so important. What we've got here is this is the previous lows that we saw at the end of 2008 around about $35 a barrel. They're broken below the lows that we saw earlier this year and there's certainly potential for us to go lower particularly if we continue to decline the way that we have been. This is the weekly chart. This is the daily chart. So I would be hoping that we need to get back above $44, maybe $45 a barrel in the course of the next few trading sessions to suggest that we won't see further losses. I think the fact that we've broken below the 2015 lows on a technical basis is quite significant and I think it's something that we need to keep an eye on. Yes, because I think what you had was you had a huge sell-off at the end of last year in January. You've been consolidating and digesting for about six weeks now and now you're starting to fall through the bottom again. And being back at $42, you're not far from $40, which I think some of the governments in the Middle East have said they can live with. But realistically I think that you're going to retest the 2008 lows near $35 at some point. It does seem that way. You're kind of getting drawn that way. Now Brent, this is a bit of a puzzle because Brent is not following through. As we can see, we're still well above the lows that we saw earlier this year, around about 2015. And now it's around about $45, $45 a barrel. Yes, because the spread had narrowed pretty much to zero at that low and now it's widened back out closer to, well, it's a little $11 right now. But we had a nice little hammer there. Then we had a bullish candle and then we traded sideways before we edged higher. Now what we've got is a little bit of a consolidation. We are struggling around about $52, $53 a barrel, but there is strong support around about $51. If we look at this chart here on a daily basis, we'll draw a line through that high there and that low there. You may think I'm clutching at straws a little bit, but certainly I think in terms of the low there and the high there and the series of highs through here, it does appear to be a little bit of what I would call price congestion through that area. So I would suggest that we probably need to see a move back to around about $51 a barrel, but it certainly does appear to be slightly more resilient. But there are more geopolitical factors at play when you're talking about Brent Crude, which don't apply to USWTI. Hence the spread. Hence the spread, which is again starting to widen out again. So while you could see WTI track lower, you may find that Brent probably lags behind it by quite some distance. Well, on the topic of oil, Michael, could you bring up DollarCad? Sure. And I don't want to talk about one thing with DollarCad in particular here, and keeping an eye on it is that when we were looking at the Dollar Yen chart earlier, it was looking like we might be getting a bit of a double top. And what's also interesting is that we may be getting a bit of a double top here in DollarCad as well. And so today's trading will be particularly significant. We've got WTI breaking down. So this should be breaking out through 128, and as we saw, we shot up and it didn't hold. So we want to keep an eye on this one. Two stories. One is what is this telling us about WTI, and the second is what's going on with the US dollar. So this will probably be quite an active one also around the time of the Fed decision. Yeah, because that inventory number really should have weakened the Canada quite considerably, and it hasn't. And it hasn't. No. So as you start wondering, does that mean it's priced in already some fairly weak WTI at this point? The other one that interests me, I mean, if it does bust through, then in researching WTI head under 40, they should head for 130. But so far, this 128-ish resistance has been holding. We'll see what happens with the US dollar at the Fed meeting today, because this is where it's all kind of going to come together. It's washed out quite a few stops above 128, though, hasn't it? 128.35 is the high. So if you were short above 128, you'd have got washed out on those stops. And that's always the risk with dollar cad. It can overshoot, and that's what it's done today. Probably worth interesting having a look at gold, shall we? Sure. Same thing. It will also be big on US dollar trading around 230. So look at this. Again, this is a nice downtrend. But again, we're still well below the lows that we saw at the end of last year, around about 1130, 1130. So we're sort of tracking lower. We need to get back above 1170. And certainly I think there is potential, perhaps, to retest those lows that we saw at the end of November. That's the next key support level on gold prices. So I'm certainly keeping an eye on that. But you can certainly see here, the trend is pretty much down. It's pretty conclusive that it's tracking lower. And what we need to know now is what it's going to do when it gets to this level around about here at 1130. And we're about $20 away from that. Michael, could you put this back on the daily chart and drop the euro dollar on top? Yeah, actually, I'll have a new chart. Get rid of that. The euro dollar on top. Because the two forces we're watching for with gold over the next few days is gold tracking against the US dollar in terms of the Fed. But also, how is gold tracking against the euro? Sorry. I just lost the connection. Give me a minute. No problem. So I can talk a little bit. So the two forces that we're watching for driving gold is gold against the dollar and gold against the euro. Because gold against the dollar is basically the US dollar has been going up on expectations of a more hawkish Fed sending gold down. But gold also trades in relation to the euro. And there's two pieces going on with the euro that we've been talking about lately. One is any political risk surrounding a possible Grexit that we could see play out over the next few days. If that suddenly pops up, you could see some movement in gold. And the other one is gold in relation to the European money supply and the launch of the QE program. Because over the last longer term, say four years, gold has been following the ECB balance sheet up and down. So we'll be keeping an eye on that as well. Do they have to flood the system with money to stabilize the system and what's going to go on there? So between the two, we could see quite a bit of action in gold as these forces tug and push and pull against each other over the next week or two. So gold does have the potential to be quite active here on both sides because there's a lot of forces that work in the market right now. So there you go. The red line or the purple line is Euro dollar and the black line is gold. So that's one feature that you can actually use quite nicely. It's called our overlay function, so you just drag and drop one chart on top of the other. It's a fairly useful feature to look for correlations. So what this looks like to me with gold was that for the most part, over the last year, it's kind of more or less been tracking the euro lower except for the couple of spots here. One was back in June and one was in January and both of those I believe were around the time that the ECB made announcements related to stimulus, but they've been short lived. So we'll keep an eye on that because it still is a factor out there. Okay, so let's just get short of that. Okay, so I think summing up, I think really it's a question of expectations this evening surrounding the Fed. Be careful for a dovish surprise because I think market is a little bit one way with respect to expecting a fairly hawkish Fed. So we could actually see Euro dollar squeeze back towards 107 and see Dolly N retest the bottom of the range. Keep an eye on obviously equity markets. If there's any questions, Colin and I are more than happy to accommodate them, otherwise what we'll do is we'll wind this up and then we'll post this up on YouTube for you ladies and gentlemen to listen to it back if you so wish. So I'm going to throw the floor open to questions and in the absence of any questions, I'd like to thank you all for your company and speak to you again if not in the weekly Monday webinar, which we do at 12.15. But around about the same time next month, is it the 16th of April? I can't remember. I believe so. And we will now have a nine firm payrolls in April because its payrolls are coming out on the third, which is Good Friday and global markets are closed for the day. It's a good day to bury bad news, isn't it? The markets are closed. All right, ladies and gents, thanks very much for your company. This is Michael Houston signing off and good luck with your trading today. Have a great day, everyone. It looks like it should be a busy one. Cheers, Colin. Thank you. Bye, Michael. Thanks.