 Some interesting dynamics at play first night's late and daily fantasy baseball because I have zero pitchers projected To get at least six strikeouts force that obviously someone will because that's how things work but from a projection perspective not a single guy hits it six strikeouts and That means that a couple things a there's probably going to be a Flat distribution of upside between these guys But also pitchers who don't have the biggest upside typically are more viable now than they would be other Because you don't need as many points to hang honestly like this as you would in others So guys who may be really good real world pitchers, but don't get a lot of strikeouts Suddenly are gonna generate a lot more interest for tonight I think that's a good thing because there are some fun guys who fit that bill who are pitching So let's dive on in and get you set and let you know what this all means for Monday night's late Welcome on into the solo shop. That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm Here to break down this 11 game main slate for Monday night with lock set for 705 p.m Eastern for today and there actually is some weather notes for today on the east coast There's a chance of rain in Philadelphia for the Phillies and the Braves doesn't look like it'll be too bad But check back on that one later rain odds are a bit higher in Baltimore It depends on the timing of the rain moving out. It looks like the rain will be there during the day Moving out sometime around first pitch check back on the timing of that for the Orioles and the rains There is a chance of rain in Boston for the Red Sox and the Guardians to just a spot check back on there I don't think any of these games will be in true danger of not playing But at least some risk there So check back on whether in Philadelphia, Baltimore and Boston to make sure those games are good to play for tonight We'll dive on in let you know the implications of the way this slate breaks down and who grades out well on a low strike at Slate in just one second at first a quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed Wherever you get your podcast because it's not just MLB DFS podcast We also have PGA UFC and NASCAR all in the same place and the NFL Once again just around the corner will have those podcasts twice per week here Once again at this year. 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So excited to be back there as always Check that out again fandal.com or the fandal fantasy app eligibility restrictions apply get yourself entered for the fandal WFPC in 2022 Pitching preview for this Monday main slate max freed is the highest sourced pitcher on fandal checking in at $10,500 Tony Gonsal in his 10 to Sean Manaya comes in at $900 jaco to Rizzi is 94 Cory Kluber is 91 with Noah Cinder guard at 9,000 and we have JT group acre nick pavetta jacob junis and chris flexin As the other guys at $8,000 or higher now again This is not a high-strike out slate Which means we can afford to use just good pitchers may not typically great out all that well Because they don't get a lot of strikeouts and there's just a lower opportunity cost to use them today And there would be if there were a sure as or someone like that available to us elsewhere But this composition of the slate is why I think max freed deserves to be at the top guy for tonight He's facing the Phillies, which is not a great matchup, but it's also not awful They have a 112 WRC plus against lefties, but a 23 percent strikeout rate They can't hit for some power But freed helps neutralize that because we got 11 starts now on freed with slightly fewer curve balls in his mix He's lit up just a 30 percent fly ball rate or 32 percent fly ball in that time a 30 percent hard hit rate And that helps him be an elite pitcher even without a ton of strikeouts Obviously that matters on this slate where strikeouts aren't as big of an issue He can get some strikeouts himself freed has a 22 percent strikeout rate across that span He has an eight plus strikeouts and three of 11 starts he hit nine and one that was against a very good Dodgers offense And he has faced a lot of low strikeout teams So maybe that's weighing down his number a bit more than where it should be We're probably not gonna see freed put up huge numbers when he's facing a lower strikeout team, but This is not a low strikeout matchup And we don't need as much upside to hang on this slate as we would a lot of other slates So I could just use the best pitcher and I think that freed is that guy So I'm feeling fully willing to load up on him here and be high on max freed on a slate That is lacking in strikeouts the one area in which he is not a standout elite type of arm Tony Gonsolin does know the same name value as max freed But he's also a really high quality pitcher right now and he gets the nationals at home tonight So I will put Gonsolin number two Behind freed here the matchup is a low strikeout one the Nats are at 20 percent against righties in their current active roster So they're not a great opponent from that perspective But they're also not a big power team with just a 34 percent fly ball rate and they won 34 ISO and That's Gonsolin's key flaw. He lets up too much dangerous contact Everything else with him is pretty good rub to 10 stars on Gonsolin with his current pitch mix He has a 3.35 skill interactive era in the time Which is actually the best mark on this slate He has a 25 percent strikeout rate and a 4 percent walk rate really good peripherals and the results match it to boot His era in the time is 2.23 That's even with the batted ball issues that sometimes do crop up Now you're putting Gonsolin in a less threatening matchup and things are gonna look pretty good I wouldn't put him on freed's level from an overall perspective But Gonsolin is at home pretty good matchup a safer matchup for tonight. I like him a lot So I have him second But if you want to put Gonsolin first above freed I wouldn't push back on that He is a very good option. He is worth the 10-2 for tonight and Gonsolin to me Needs to be in their top two pitching options for tonight's slate now I'm gonna put Aaron Ashby in the third slot and he's the value play as well But I think that he'd be third for me Even without considering the salary being a value here. He's very risky Ashby is very risky And that's why his salary is low at $7400 but he can get strikeouts And that's more than a lot of guys can say on this slate Ashby's facing the Rockies There are no K offense versus lefties with a 113 WRC plus. They don't strike out a ton But they're also not an offense. I think we need to avoid versus a lefty Ashby has made nine starts since he moved into rotation full-time And the underlying numbers in that stretch are very good He has a 3.41 skill interactive ERA with a 26% strike out which actually is a top number on this slate The bat of all numbers with Ashby not as good as when he was reliever, but still pretty solid The results have not always followed suit though because the array is 5.31 Ashby has lent up four plus runs in four of his nine starts and some of those starts were against pretty poor offenses That's why I'm not gonna put him higher on my list But he has upside and not a lot of guys do he had 12 strikeouts in one game That's a spike game He had nine starts or nine strikeouts to start after that and he's fully stretched out now You look at his pitch count and see he went 22 pitches last time out He was on just three days rest after he threw 101 pitches the start before that I don't know why the Brewers had him start that game, but they did and it didn't work out But now he's had a week to get fully rested back up I think they'll probably give him the full leash once again So yeah, there's a lot of risk because the results are bad and they're bad for a reason but Ashby has upside tonight that I'm not sure anybody can actually touch if he is fully fully on his game I'm gonna use Ashby. I will often again talk about whether or not I'll use a value play I will use Ashby actively use him could consider him for single entry because I'm okay with the risks there So Ashby in consideration for single entry. He's a good play overall I will use him and I would put him third overall in this slate behind just freed and Gonson will talk about a couple more guys I'd consider in things to watch as well first So let's go through some stacks and stacking a really really fun tonight Which makes sense because if we have fewer strikeout options at pitcher We're probably gonna have better options for stacking and that is the case here starting off with the Dodgers facing Palo Espinoe And he's really struggling with our contact right now. That's leading some big games For opposing hitters, so I think the Dodgers should be If not the top team at least near the top for sure We've got seven starts on a Espinoe in the rotation He's letting up a 45% fly ball rate with a 46% hard hit rate Those are really rough numbers and those numbers have bled into his results as well He has a 4.88 ERA He has led a multiple home runs in three of his seven starts and one of those multi-homer games Was against the pirates the Dodgers are a lot tougher than that team It's not the warmest park on the slate But that's less of an issue tonight than it would have been back on Friday where there were like 90,000 games in the 90s There's only one game tonight with a temperature higher than 85 degrees. So This one is kind of a blend of everything. It's a good offense. It's a good matchup It is a good enough park So I will be high on the Dodgers here and put them either one or two on my stacking list for tonight a Spinoe does let up more hard contact varieties, but the split is not that big So I think we can kind of just pick the guys we like most and I think that that Discussion should include Jake lamb if he plays tonight lamb actually had fourth on Sunday There were a lot of guys sitting so I wouldn't expect him to hit there again But he could hit sixth and lamb was crushing in the minors He's had good numbers so far on the majors his salary is $2,200 I mean, I think that it makes a lot of sense I would use Jake lamb if he were to play for tonight if I need him for the value if I'm going with Max reader for I just want to give myself more flexibility to load up on the Dodgers studs You want to jam in bets Freeman Turner using a guy like lamb can make that a lot easier So Jake lamb very much in play for tonight Even though didn't start the year in the majors and he's it's been a while We've seen a good Jake lamb at the big league level. I'm gonna put the Giants second for stacking They're a very close second They could easily be first on this list and I wouldn't push back if you were to put them there I think that they are very legit. They're facing Tyler Gilbert tonight Gilbert has had a pretty rocky season both in triple a in the majors In triple a his exit is 7.71 and he has almost as many walks of strikeouts He's actually been a bit better than that in the big leagues with a 5.2 Skill interactive era 14% strikeout rating a 7% walk rate. So I guess that's encouraging but it also means those peripherals may get worse and We can stack against him as is He's letting up a 44% hard hit rates with a 50% flight ball rates And that's even with some pretty weak competition sprinkled in there He did face the Giants once and he held them to just one earn run across three and two thirds innings But they had multiple barrels in that game a lot of hard contact. Now they get to see him for a second time I think they'll do better this time around As far as the park goes, I'm not sure if the roof will be open. It's 92 degrees at Chase field Typically the roof is open at that temperature. You can Google Diamondbacks roof information It'll tell you if it's gonna be open as of Monday morning. They had not announced if it would be open for tonight I think it will be but even if the roof does wind up being closed I'd be okay being in on the Giants for tonight As always the case with this team though You said to make sure any righties you want to use will stay in the game Once the lefty and Gilbert is out of there. I would not feel confident with Austin Slater personally Darren Ruff tends to stay in a pretty good amount. So he's a bit safer It's not perfect, especially now a brain and belping healthy again So Ruff is kind of a fringe guy Slater's probably a no for me Ruff a fringe guy Wilmer Flores should be okay David VR will probably play the entire game if he starts now that Evan Longoria is out pretty good numbers in the minus or VR So keep it in mind I can find how long guys playing games at baseball reference in their batting game log So you can see if it says CG means complete game If it's like GS to 8 that means they left in the eighth inning so stuff like that I would recommend checking it out for Giants guys because They are pretty quick to to yank guys out once they lose a platoon advantage So keep that in mind Slater's a big one Ruff kind of get there Flores and VR safer at least in my mind The third stack is gonna be the Astros. They were in a really rough park for hitting tonight It's just 59 degrees in Oakland, which is the coldest on the slate But I love their matchup And I think that matchup should be enough for us to put them third here behind the Dodgers and the Giants They're facing Adam Aller who has bounced between triple A in the majors this year The results triple A are fine, but he's not overpowering anybody and his peripherals are not great there We've seen that translate into the majors to where as ERA is eight point five six It's a small sample of twenty seven and one third innings But his skill interactive ERA is six point oh one his expected ERA is six point four one He's letting up a lot of fly balls plenty of hard contact to when Houston did just see him that game was in Houston So not a great park, but a better park than this one in that one couple home runs three earned runs in less than five innings So I wish this game were somewhere else Anywhere else outside of San Francisco or Oakland, you know, but even accounting for that I think this is going to be Among our top stacks of the night Despite it being a pretty poor park for hitting for today I will treat it as such so Oakland to me the Astros for me a really good stack for today despite their downsides One thing that would hurt them is if you're done Alvarez can't play because his hand was sore which is why he sat on Sunday and I was concerned about the hand initially was coming off the aisle because handmade injuries are bad in terms of the Sapping power even when guys come back then Alvarez came back and he's like no no no no concerns Hit a couple dingers tons of hard contact had some barrels in there as first starts back so The injury the absence yesterday is concerning if he plays I'll likely use him if he's shown that he can get through this pain and still be your Don Alvarez, but Not having him out there would Be a blow to this lineup as a whole because he is so good so Downgrade the Astros if Alvarez cannot play Downgrade him a bit because he sat on Monday if he does play or sat on Sunday But overall, I'm still willing to go here Just some concerns around the best guy for offense for DFS within that lineup Let's go now do things to watch a couple other pitches You could make cases for tonight or show up and I own GT brew baker when I say from the Tigers They're not a super high strikeout team against lefties and maniacs strikeout rate is 23% across his past 11 starts So, you know, you could still use him his strikeout rate not being super high pushed him down the list for me a bit But it's the Tigers I still think he works just not as high in him as I am on freed or gonsolin or Ashby Brew bakers facing the Cubs. He's had a really good batted ball data since he started using a sink or more And they're letting him go deeper in games because he's been more effective I put Ashby above both these guys because I think that the salary Reduction is good. I think that the upside is good, but Manaya brew Baker both in the mix So pretty wide open slate of picture if you love Manaya, you love brew Baker I think there's justification for being high in them as well I'm just not quite as high in them as I am on a hot on a guy like Ashby. I Almost said the Padres in my top three stacks I think they're good enough for that just decided to go with the Astros despite the park above them The Padres facing Drew Hutchison, he's lending up a lot of balls in play as a starter a lot of hard contact to so Obviously Machado and Void are fine as the righties But I also would bump the lefties here with Hutchison letting up more fly balls So jerks and pro-fars had decent numbers this year Jake Cronin worth obviously I bump up the lefties But still favor the two powerful righties within this lineup over them the Mariners work for one Oscar tonight just kind of probably missing some key firepower with Jose With Rodriguez and with winker both being banged up. So I don't know. I think that With Julio Rodriguez if he's able to play I'd probably be hiring him But it's a wrist injury and like that's another thing that kind of SAP SAP power out. So He's facing Glen Otto. I'm cool using guys against him It's also warmer a T-Mobile park than it usually is tonight which helps the bats there, too So bump up the Mariners. They're healthier than expected They're okay for one offs that they're not but Julio Rodriguez if he plays I think that he'd work for a one-off But wrist injuries to me always a bit concerning because they can linger even when a guy is playing as well So Julio Rodriguez definitely okay, but and the Mariners okay for one offs But the injury concerns do lower them from a stacking perspective for me Let's finish up here with some Dinger calls for tonight The boring one is Mookie Betts facing off with Paolo Espino out in Los Angeles Espino a lot of hard contact a lot of fly balls Not a big split between righties lefties Mookie Betts Pretty good at baseball. So go Mookie Betts as the boring home run call for today The fun one I'll go Wilmer Flores facing off with Gilbert's one of the righties should stay in there for the Giants the entire game I'd assume the roof is open for tonight. So it's a good environment for hitting Flores has always shown good power against lefties So the home run picks for today Mookie Betts and Wilmer Flores That is all that we have here for today on the solo shot again Weird slight given the way that the strikeout stuff breaks down But still one where I feel like we can find some good options within our pitching options. So Shift your mindset for sure to not be a strikeout centric, but Still think it's a good slate for pitching for tonight Do not forget to subscribe to the number fire daily fantasy podcast So you just search for a number fire daily fantasy podcast wherever you get your podcast to get MLB PGA USC and NASCAR podcast all the same place Hit subscribe and get those podcasts right as they are posted if you've got any questions for me I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J. I am as a NNES You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in for today Good luck to you with your MLB DFS last talk to you once again tomorrow to break down Tuesday's slate This has been the solo shot right here on the fan dual podcast network