 Oh, and welcome to Fegments, The Power of Imagination, my 35th episode overall. I'll talk more about that in a minute. The first happy holidays to all of you. Today, we're going to take a look at 2022 through the lens of 2021, I guess. Talk about what I've learned in the last year, I think, and what I predict for next year. If you watched any of our baseball shows, you know that prediction is not my forte. So if you hear a prediction that you don't like, don't worry. It appears that I'm generally wrong. But I've thought about it and I'll offer you some of this as I seek to entertain and inspire. I did have a scheduled guest for this show and he's opted out until early next year. He's a friend of mine, a 15 fighter pilot who lost a son to suicide. And it's a conversation that we both think is important to have, but I want to have it at the right time for him. And so we'll see him next year in 2022. My first show happened on January 25th of this year. And since then, counting this one, there have been 35 episodes of figments on reality and figments the power of imagination. Now you can find playlists both on Think Tech Hawaii and on YouTube form. And I think there's some pretty good episodes. I'll talk about a few of those in a minute. And they're also available on Spotify and the Apple podcasts. So if you don't want to see me, I understand. I'm not hurt. You can catch those there. I've had some amazing guests, mostly on figments on reality. And I've got a quick sample of a few of them. My first show was with Dave Fingers Goldfein, former Chief of Staff of the Air Force, a great combat pilot, a real hero, much overused for it in my mind. Very popular episode because he's a highly regarded guy. And Fingers talked, but not about his experience as a combat pilot, but about taking a year off to seek to be a roadie for rock band. And you can find it on the playlist if you'd like more on that. The other shows I had included another flyer. So some military things, Slickagiri, friend of Vine, another F-15 guy that I flew eagles with. And he talked about his experience flying and flying and flying and flying 25,000 plus hours in helicopters and eagles and airliners. And if you have any interest in aviation, that's one that you might want to watch. Of course, I had to have my daughter on, first of all, because she's awesome. She didn't ask to be on, but she is awesome. And she talked about leadership. And folks, if you choose any episode to watch from the playlist, this is the one I recommend because I think about what she said every day, really. She's a great leader. I learned a lot about leadership from my kiddo. And when she talks about the connection, purpose and mastery, it makes perfect sense in what humans want and how that influences what you do as a leader or as a human. And so I recommend that one. Recently, our most recent Power of Imagination episode was with Ed Hawkins. And he talked about China-Taiwan or Hawaii during a China-Taiwan conflict. I've never heard anybody else talk about that. Ed's a great guy, golf buddy, intelligence analyst, and retired Air Force Colonel. And I think that's what I've sought to do is bring folks to you that you might not otherwise hear from talking about things that you might not otherwise think about and show how they made their pigments a reality and help inspire you to do the same with yours. Because if I've learned anything from doing this show, it's the power of people out there in the world, people I know and people I don't know, what we can accomplish if we set out to do it, refusing to be intimidated by the idea that it might be undoable. So what else have I learned about pigments and people doing this show? One, it's hard work. It is hard work, but it's worth the effort. I try to make sure I get things right. And that hard work of trying to get things right has taught me that what I might have believed may not be true. And I think that exercise in critical thinking, self-critical thinking, is an important one that too few people in power frankly engage in, and perhaps in the media. And that's not a political statement if you watch any episode. You know that I don't engage in politics except at the ballot box. But you're not always right. And you have to be open-minded to the idea that you have something to learn. And the hard work of getting ready to do these shows, both the power of imagination and pigments on reality, has done that for me. Second thing I learned at Guests Matter, I have some great friends. And in addition to the folks you saw, you talked with Susan Helms, the astronaut, Simon Lee, the diplomat, Andrea Marie Jacques-Maton, my friends from the Hollywood industry, three-time Emmy winners, Julie Wade, my niece, all of them have stories that I find inspiring. And I hope you do too. So Guests Matter. And I'll seek to have more guests. So maybe I'm not so good by myself, but some of the solo shows have been well-received, but Guests Do Matter. And I may reduce the frequency of all Figments episodes to every two weeks just to avoid overexposure and to make sure that I can find guests like the ones I'll have in the coming year that are already lined up. That said, it's worked pretty well, 7,500, almost, about 7,464, I think. Views on YouTube alone doesn't count Vimeo or on the ThinkTech platform. And every time I get tired and wind up my wife, Bollyhandra, and oh, maybe I don't want to do this. She nudges me and says, you need to do this. You need to do this for you. And maybe you're making a difference. And maybe it's good enough. If maybe I'm making a difference and getting people to think and learn, then it is worth it. The other lesson is encouraging to me from a discouraging event. And that is that Afghanistan really touched an earth. Many of the views, the 7,500, almost views, came from my shows on Afghanistan, and on the withdrawal and on the need for accountability and those who didn't do well, and they didn't. And the reason I find that encouraging is that that means people care. And I send notices of the shows on Facebook and LinkedIn to people I don't know. So I don't think it's all folks like me who are watching this former military interested in security affairs. I think that the public is generally interested and wants to better understand what's happening and why. And that's encouraging, right? To me, it's encouraging, especially in a year like 2021 because what a year it's been. What a year. If you thought 2020 was challenging, let's take a look at what's happened in 2021. First of all, we had January 6th, the insurrection in the capital. And I'm going to make an unpolitical statement. I don't think that matters very much. I think it was a dumb ass move, frankly, by a bunch of folks aligned with the former President Trump that got out of control, but I don't think it was a seminal event in our nation's history that I think wasting time looking back at it is exactly that wasting time. We're going to do it anyway because that's the nature of our democracy, but I don't think that was very important. It certainly got people's attention and the media's attention, but if you look back in our nation's history, while there haven't been identical events, there's certainly been descent and debate and protest sometimes violent. So I hope we move beyond that. The second thing that of course took the headlines all year long was pandemic, pandemic, pandemic, pandemic, the Delta variant, all of the restrictions. Should we have the restriction? Should we get vaccinated? Yeah, we should get vaccinated. We should be thoughtful and careful and protect ourselves in each other, but we'll talk more about government overreach later. I have a prediction on the pandemic. Remember my baseball track record? I might be wrong, but I'll make it anyway. That won't stop me. And then we got a new administration, the Biden administration. And then as I said, I'm non-political. So this isn't a political statement, but here we go again with another spectacularly unpopular administration. That's two in a row, not good for America. We need our presidents to succeed to some measure. They don't have to have universal agreement or even a broad mandate, but having two presidents in a row who by all polls and reports are broadly unpopular just exacerbates the divides in the country. I think this unpopularity in the Biden administration due to two non-political factors. The first is what I called on a figments on reality episode, the Washington problem. With only four years between Democrat administrations, we recycled many of the leaders who are in key civilian positions. Many of these I know personally and professionally and they're smart people and they're good people and they want to do well by the country, but they've been traveling in Washington circles in the same circles, reinforcing what they already believe and repeating things that have already been tried and largely not necessarily failed, but not worked very well. Same could happen with Republicans people. This isn't a political problem. We need greater diversity of thought in our leadership and new ideas and new approaches to the very difficult problems that we face or we'll just keep doing the same stuff that doesn't work. The second, and this sounds pejorative but I don't mean it that way, but thus far the administration has shown a significant level of ineptitude. What they've done, they haven't done well. I'll give two examples and again not a political judgment. I want them to succeed because they're my government they're your government, but the Afghanistan withdrawal was completely bungled, totally botched by debacle, period. And there's no other way to view it. The emergency airlift when everything went south literally and bigger diddly went very well and kudos to those who made it work on the ground and in the air, but it was a debacle, it was inept. And the other one I'd cite is the current legislation, the bill back whatever bill in the two efforts at legislation have been marked by fits and starts and lack of agreement and just not well done. I don't know that we'll ever get the current bill under consideration passed. I don't know that I want it passed but that's really not the issue. The issue is do jobs, make legislation, make progress and that failure demonstrates to me some ineptitude. There's a broader political failure. So I guess there are really three points to make here that shows the ineptitude, not just of the administration but of our current elected officials. I talked about it in the last on reality and that is the failure to reach a budget that leaves us operating under a continuing resolution and that's a failure, an absolute failure. 15 times since 2001, I believe we haven't had budget done when it is due to be done and that's a failure on both sides of the aisle. And I proposed in a recent on reality and I restate my proposal, but if you can't pass the budget, you shouldn't be eligible for reelection. Period, it's your job. Congress holds the purse strings, especially the House of Representatives, so do your job or get a different job. So it hasn't been a great start to the Biden administration and regardless of how I voted and I won't tell you, I want them to succeed so our country succeeds. They gotta do better, I hope they do. I mentioned Afghanistan as a debacle and the aftermath is tragic, but that clearly defined much of the year right in the middle and August, September, very sad. And then we're further 2022, just in case that wasn't enough we had the China Taiwan with the US of course, tensions and the Russia-Ukraine matter and both very dangerous situations that we should all be concerned about. One of my biggest concerns is naivete and my concern with regards to naivete is that it exists on both sides. I think both Russia and China have flawed understanding of how uncontrollable events get in contact. I think even in US security circles that there are many who have a sense of disbelief and don't realize that this could really happen, war could really happen folks and that disbelief isn't good. In the China Taiwan US case, many experts will cite the economic ties as a deterrent to conflict. I would encourage them to go back and look at the very significant economic ties that existed between Japan and the United States in 1941. So we can't count on that. We have to realistically but soberly recognize that war could happen and do everything we can to prevent it without caving on key issues like Taiwan's right to move forward peacefully and whatever means that might be other than independence because we've already voted that off the island. See what I did there, but peacefully is the key. Before we go on to 2022 and my almost certainly incorrect predictions, let's talk a little bit about what I see coming in the next year. I hope I'm wrong on some of these, I hope I'm right. But anyway, on January 10th, I'll return, I'm gonna take a two-way break and there'll be a figments on reality on third and then back to figments for our imagination and connect with a guy named Ricky Ellison. And Ricky's a really interesting guy. I don't know him well, our paths have crossed but he's agreed to be a guest on one of my episodes. And Ricky's story is that he's a native of New Zealand who came to the US, played at the University of Southern California football and then played in the NFL. And now he is a highly respected missile defense expert, a security expert. That's quite a journey. And I know you'll enjoy hearing from Ricky about that journey and how he got there, why he cares so much about what he currently cares about. So here we go, I'm taking a deep breath, folks. Deep breath, drink of water with my cup for my granddaughters, predictions, predictions. All right, gonna talk about the pandemic, conflict, the economy, political dysfunction and then mention a few black swans, things we don't think that could happen, but they might. So it's on a crime, the end of the pandemic. Here's my prediction, yes. What? It has been very contagious, thus, by the way, a disclaimer, I am absolutely not an immunologist and I know what I read online and elsewhere. And I don't really know that, I've formed opinions. But I think it is because it's highly contagious with limited effect and very low lethality. And so my belief is that we will see the emergence of the common COVID, just like the common cold. And is there the possibility for an extreme mutation of the COVID-19 virus? Sure, is that normal? No, it's kind of unusual, actually, for a more lethal, worse virus to emerge from an existing virus. So I think we're gonna see the common COVID. It doesn't mean COVID's going away, it means it'll be part of our lives, but a more normal part of our lives, less disruptive, less lethal. And then what? What does that mean? Everything's good, we're back to normal? Probably not, because I'm very concerned about government overreach and all the things we've done. And a tunnel vision reaction to Omicron, like we're seeing with imposition and restrictions that while they may make some sense, they really don't seem to be required and don't seem to be particularly effective. And it's very difficult once you overreach with your regulatory power to walk that back. And we've gotta walk it back as quickly as we can reasonably do to get the economy further back on track and get life further back on track and get to the point where kids go to school normally and people go to work normally. I'm absolutely not careless about COVID. I'm thrice vaccinated and I wear my mask when it's appropriate and take reasonable caution in every way that I can to avoid getting infected, but life has to go on. And that's not being pragmatic, that's being thoughtful about what's good for the country. Tunnel vision approach that puts COVID at the center of our lives cannot continue because the rest of our lives are being disrupted in some cases destroyed by this singular focus on a single virus, well, plus variants. What about Russia, Ukraine? Onto the next item of interest on my predictions, what do I predict? I don't know what Putin wants. I'm not a Russia expert by any stretch, but here's what I know. Well, I think I don't, based on observation of his behavior in his entire time as the head of government in Russia or the de facto head of government, and that there's no greater good that he's pursuing, that whatever will be will be disruptive and not good to the United States and thus the United States must be ready to respond and ideally respond early with effective deterrent measures because he's not out for anything good. With regard to China, Taiwan and the US, you can check out my show with Ed Hawkins or the unreality that I did about China, Taiwan and the US. We know what Xi Jinping wants. He wants for unification of Taiwan and he wants it now. And it's a political imperative for him inside China. The United States has to find ways to deter and avoid conflict because the worst thing that could happen in the world was conflict between US and China without caving, without appeasing, without failing to acknowledge the areas that China is operating outside international norms and one of those is human rights. So you must think that I support the diplomatic boycott of the Olympic Games in China. I don't because I think it's, first of all, not going to make a difference. Other than further inflame, the nationals perver inside China and China doesn't like it publicly, but they probably like that internally. It gives them a windmill to tilt at, a lightning rod for anti-US sentiment and it doesn't accomplish anything. We've got to do things that matter, take actions that have effect. And I think this will just stir the pot and not have any positive effect. Again, we can't just cave. We have to find things that matter and they're not all confrontational things. There have to be ways that we can work with China to establish a relationship that is good, not just for the US, not just for China, but in a imaginative way makes the world a better place. How about the economy? How about the economy, folks? I took economy, economics in college for about two weeks, dropped that class. So who am I to talk? But I've got a webcast, so I can. The economy is not good. Thank you, Captain Obvious, but it's not very good. We have supply chain issues that are a part of our economic delays. Are those going to disappear? Hell no, they're not going to disappear because there are underlying matters that are causing them and we're not going to quickly reduce the shipping backlog or quickly get the workforce back to work or quickly address dysfunctional regulations on shipping vehicles and drivers to get back to normal flow, add pandemic COVID into that. And no, it's not going to disappear and that's going to be a burden on the economy for some time to come. Inflation is another challenge and it's a very serious challenge. 6.8% current mark, the highest in nearly 40 years and wages have grown over the same period, but by 2.2% less. That means American families are losing money and if you don't see that at the gas pump, you're not buying gas in Hawaii or probably anywhere else. That corrosive, the corrosive influence of inflation on economy and society is far reaching and I don't see it being overcome. I think this is going to be a very difficult economic year. And that that will drive, what? American political dysfunction, my next topic. The economy will drive the landscape and it's not going to be good. I don't see anything that tells me that we're going to see a quick recovery and guests will get blamed. Those in office and that means right now the Democrats with control of the Senate, the House and the White House, they're going to take a hit. I don't see how they cannot. Again, not a political judgment. It's just the way things work. It's the economy stupid, as was once said during a campaign. And what concerns me most is as we go through our next political transition in the mid-term elections in 2022, can we find some viable candidates? Can we find some people who are not extreme either way? And please, and that aren't all old white men, I'm an old white man, but we need intellectual and background diversity to a greater degree and that's both parties. The governor should be governed by people like them and right now at the most senior levels, they're not. And that's got to be fixed. It's incumbent, a nice word incumbent, but it is paramount that the two political parties do better at recruiting suitable candidates, suitable, credible, devoted candidates closer to the middle than the extreme and closer to the middle, because that's where most of us live. So I don't see political dysfunction ending anytime soon. I do see it ending. I am an optimist about American democracy. What about the Black swans? I think there could be a cyber pandemic this year. We've seen several cyber attacks, one the other day in Hawaii, attacked our bus in handy van, handicap van system. And I really think there could be a significant widespread outbreak of cyber crime, cyber terrorism, and that we should be concerned about them. I'm concerned about the collapse of democracies. I think that's probably the most troubling trend in the world, the Biden administration is taking some action to address that and reinforce the importance of democracy in the world system and the rule of law. But we'll see. I think there could be a global recession based on what I've said about the US economy. Not in this alone, in the modern world. And the effects of that would be far reaching and go well beyond economic matters as people and nations fight for resources, pardon me. On a happier front, there's news today that South Korea and North Korea have reached an agreement in principle for an end of war agreement. And I think that's great. And I hope the US supports it. No, it's not easy, imperfect. But as I said many times, including in my prize-winning paper for the Asset Forum, when every paragraph starts with technically still at war, it's very hard to make peace. So boy, I think that would be awesome if they reached an end of war agreement and that became a place for going forward. Finally, the best black swan I can imagine is returned to normal because the world isn't a bad place. It doesn't have to be a bad place. And perhaps it can get back to life as more close to what it was like in 2019 and before that. So what would Fig do to get to the good black swans and shoot the bad black swans? One do, on a personal front, do what you can to encourage return to normalcy. And that is in both your personal and political interactions. Stop being so angry, okay? It's that simple. Don't be angry. We need to take the risks seriously, especially cybersecurity. And that touches all of us. If you're watching this, cybersecurity should be a concern of yours. We need to take the threats to peace seriously as well. War could happen. And we should insist from our leaders on a commitment to deterrence with a clear-eyed realism that war is not out of the question that can't simply wish away the possibility. On the pandemic, whether or not Omicron marks the return or the emergence of the common COVID, as I said, mask when appropriate, vaccinate. Geez, please vaccinate. Why not? Says the veteran of like eight anthrax inoculations in the Air Force. But we also need to shake off the yokes of government and insist that our leaders do their other jobs. COVID is one job. It's not their only job. They need to do all of their jobs. And they're making excuses right now at the local, state, and federal level for not doing their jobs based on COVID. Shut up, do your job. Feel very strongly about that. And then finally, the one thing FIG would do and will do and recommends you do is write your senators and representatives and tell them to pass a damn budget. It's their job. It's their most important job. It's what makes the government work or not work and they need to do it. So there, that's probably as angry as I've been during any of my 35 FIGments episodes. I really thank you for joining me. This is an important endeavor to me. I hope I've provided some value to your life and your thinking. I'll return after a lovely two week break of puppy training for our new miniature schnauzer ACE on January 3rd, 2022 with FIGments on reality. I'm sure there's gonna be some news that will give me something to talk about. And then finally in closing, let me thank Think Tech Hawaii, a wonderful nonprofit corporation that does more than 30 shows a week. Gives us citizen journalists a chance to opine, to share, to introduce some of our amazing guests and friends, and I think makes the cyberspace a little bit richer. So happy holidays, aloha, and thank you.