 is a presentation of T F N N. Trading hour with your host David White. Call now toll free at 1 877-927-6648 internationally at 727-445-1044. Now, David White. And welcome all to another exciting edition of the Power Trading Hour with me, David White. And today we're going to talk about the most exquisitely soft. Those as always, we'd love to come to you at this time. The following takes place between 2 PM and 3 PM. And what we have going on today? Well, we're down. Can't believe it down. 10 whole points on the S. A B cash. Um we concluded a trade today will earlier will talk up. What else do we have? It's certainly. Um not a huge day in the way of volume so far about 3.7 billion shares, but we don't have much in the way energy up or the energy on the way down options till still say that everybody's very worried about a surprise in the market to the downside. Um and we'll talk about how some of these other things work. Um let's see if there's anything else I really wanted to bring up as we move along course first day of earnings. Um season really kind of out. We had J P Morgan out. It's up less than a percent. J and J. J and J. It's off to box and what was it? JPM. AP Morgan also up on not much for all the action and theoretically blowing out the. The earnings number, but not the whisper numbers. So we have a lot of people, like said way over the out on the tips of their skis. Earnings bad. The answers know the question is, are they going to get any better next quarter? If they're not, then you're probably thinking about selling. And even though they were good, uh, not really anybody talking these up except street folk who I assume are trying to sell into this. I just don't see a lot going on, at least from these earnings. Now, of course, after the bell tonight, we have more earnings. And of course, those to do what's today. Yeah, 16. After the belt tonight, we look at CSX and United Continental and Centos. So we got a little bit of a shake of what's going on in the rest of the world. Transportation with CSX and United Airlines and how many people are buying new uniforms with Centos. We'll get a little taste of that tomorrow morning. We look at Bank of America Abbott labs and we look at CSX and America after the bell tomorrow night. We've got Netflix IBM and eBay United Reynolds Alcoa. Um pretty much that I don't think that there's much. Friday Thursday United Health and Morgan Stanley SAP. That's kind of the biggies on Thursday Thursday. We're looking at Microsoft Intuitive Surgical Skechers Capital one Ozarks very tough to see that Microsoft blows out anything more than we expected, but that's it. Anyway, we're down 10 points on the S M P cash down 10 on the Dow. Nasdaq soft 35 Russell's up to. But after getting kind of smoked yesterday, you can give me a little bit of history. You can email me at path tfnn.com and of course you can always put a message in the den if you're there. Uh what else is going on? Let's talk about a little bit of history and then we'll move on. Got a lot of charts to look at. So we'll think about how history rhymes. Sometimes repeats that it's all just a little bit of history repeating history. Anything else repeats? Oh, I've got the wrong date on this one. I don't know that one came up there. Uh, uh, 1945. Let's get that correct. Uh, 5 29 and 45 seconds. The Manhattan project comes to an explosive end as the first atomic bomb is successfully tested in Allo go go moderate. Can I say hello, Trinity? That was what it's called in New York and New Mexico. Um, was the name was signed by Robert Amma Oppenheimer, director of the last boss Alamos Laboratory inspired by the poetry of John Dunn. Of course, this one was an implosion device. And the one that was dropped kind of the twin of this one dropped over not get sake. Uh, later, um, the, uh, they were unsure whether this bomb would work. They were really sure that the one that they dropped on Hiroshima would work because it was so stupidly simple. This one far more complex. Uh, but, uh, could use plutonium instead of this, the straight uranium used in the one on Hiroshima. Uh, anyway, this was the first one went off once it went off. But this one went off that certainly the other one would go bang and they moved on. Of course, visible from Las Vegas, many other areas around it and really didn't know what they were dealing with at the time. I had to end up, uh, buying a bunch of animals downwind that ended up drinking water and everything else. Finally figuring out just what was what with radiation. So, uh, in 1945. Well, blew up a bomb. We also took off to land on yet another body first one, of course, uh, leading into the big at 50th anniversary of a man walking on the moon, which happens on Saturday. Um, question about option expiry to be quiet into that. I don't think so. I think we've got a lot of action going on here today. Probably already started today. We will show you probably one of the most interesting charts that we've seen in a a very volatile sector. Do I have enough time? Well, maybe I do. Let's see if I can pull it up. Um, we pulled the trigger yet again on a highly leveraged short that one had probably the best Gartley pattern I've yet to see in the VIX. And it's changed a little bit today. Get it? Maybe it was a little bit different. Maybe it was this. I knew I should have dragged it up here before we get. Anyway, uh, where's that at? Do I have time? Maybe just enough to get it up and show you where to go. There it is. VIX X. And I'll show you here. Um, now ran away. Come on. Where does it at? Now I'll bring it up. There it is. We'll zoom in a little bit on this, but probably the best looking Gartley pattern actually bullish butterfly in the VIX back. 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We even have new pricing in six months and yearly options. Check out the new TFNN.com now and experience all the upgrades. TFNN.com educating investors. As I said earlier we had probably one of the best looking bullish butterflies in the VIIX which is the greatest Swiss volatility index chart. But not only that as people that have listened to a while they know just the work I do for options but extensively they continue at least the option market makers continue to set up for a big potential move down so anyway there's that chart in the VIIX. I now pay a lot of attention to the volume but I do attention to the pattern on that one. Let's go ahead and get rid of that and get my charts back up. There we go. And get rid of that and reset that. We did look and take a shot a couple days ago on the worst looking options chart and that was with Western Digital. I think I put the order out around 115 or 130 to buy the 55s on Western Digital so I think probably I think I was an average of $1.15 $1.15. They're trading at about 375 right now. I wanted to start selling as soon as Western Digital started going through $52 it's not trading around 5108 and again the probably the reason I took the money quicker on this one the only one that I actually bought with expiration this week everything else I've got into August but this one was set up almost perfectly in that they were running the shorts out of this one and the short interest on this thing was going down significantly day by day and now when you looked at the chart probably not much there but I was watching the options guys for about two days and it was really starting to look rather inky on that and so we looked at it and now let's do this WDC okay there we go this one had one of the worst looking options curves of the entire market and I thought the chances of it closing above $55 were about 5% it was going down I'm not exactly I don't think it's going although this says to 46 my guess is we're going to see a whole lot of movement in the options by tomorrow when I add these up but at worst maybe 50 bucks it may even bounce back up to $52.50 by expiration day but this one was probably one of the singly worst looking markets and as I was watching the daily shorting of this one no one wanted to be short and that's generally when you go from something like 30 and 20% of the shares traded each day as we did four or five days ago dropped to 12% or 5% or something that's generally the part where you have to watch it anyway I really love the action interday when I was watching what options market makers made put that together with my work on options markets and could this even go lower the answer is yes but you know if you can get a buck 15 and then more than well right now they're 374 if you can get that kind of range you take your money and you run especially when you're counting off for the clock long term I'm pretty happy with my other short positions some of them are puts are calls but I think that we have probably run the bell and have the ability to see a high end for probably the rest of the summer you know could we get really good earnings news and change that we could but certainly the best traders now which are the option market makers are very much worried about lower prices if we look at what the spies are telling us same thing they are really looking they are really looking for a very tempered range and that is they have very little risk to the upside and very little risk to the downside we started off at about 250 on the spiders last week that's moved up to about 275 but they still suspect there could be a fairly huge move of up to 100 points to the downside between now and expiration they don't want any risk so it continues to tell me that option market makers are really thinking that someone could really miss and we could see in a very brittle market with very light volume and all the other things that have added up to it if this was a giant V it would say that down to 275 what this says is that they really fear it but they do not know yet so as far as I'm concerned at least the next few days the door is open for a massive miss I could see something like Microsoft come down 10 bucks and just absolutely lay waste to the tune of 100 points in the S&P cash if they just went back 10 bucks and that wouldn't be anything other than maybe a little selling in an overbought market not thinking that's it pretty much loaded up on the side of options and thinking that I'm going to sit on my hands at least through Friday and like I said all the options I have now are into August so we'll take a look and see how we have that there you can give me a call at 877-927-668 and what else you can email me at path.tfn.com okay what else do we have I'm trying to check all this out do do do okay do do do do do I wanted to go through a lot of other charts no no no okay see all my emails and everything here Best Buy we talked about this one having about the same volume going into the previous high but certainly not the kind of energy you wanted to see off this June 6th blow also this period into pretty much into the 1st of October tends to be a fairly weak segment of retail consumer electronics Apple finally back up to this gap down back to May 7th that had 39 million shares today we're pushing up into it with 11 million shares yesterday had 17 million but that's about it that's about it we had about half that volume into the best day over the last month or so trying to get back up into that huge gap down that took us back to 170-27 we'll be back after this David keeps his subscribers up to date with all pertinent market information with intraday afternoon updates when warranted. Don't miss out on this great chance to get a 30-day free trial to David's daily newsletter The Path of Lease Resistance with no obligation to pay anything. David has been delivering solid recommendations for his subscribers recently and if you'd like to see the type of newsletter he delivers every morning then visit the front page of TFNN and you'll find The Path of Lease Resistance under all the details and to start your 30-day free trial today log on to TFNN.com now Hi folks, Tom O'Brien here if you'd like to get my daily newsletter of Market Insights then now is a great time to sign up for a 30-day free trial every morning by 9.30 I send out my morning letter to subscribers with Market Commentary on a variety of markets currencies and commodities to keep investors up to date on the day's trading action included in Market Insights specific buy and sell recommendations for stocks ETFs and even options which stops and price targets included for every trade in my newsletter if you'd like to try my newsletter risk-free for 30 days then head over to the front page of TFNN and you'll find Market Insights under Trading Newsletters I use my years of trading experience to bisect and dissect the market every morning and give my subscribers the most important information they need to know for the day ahead. I even issue afternoon updates for my subscribers for the next 30 days of trading action. I'm always scouring the market for the next great trading opportunity. Sign up for your 30-day free trial to my daily newsletter Market Insights today by visiting the front page of TFNN.com Well, go get them folks. TFNN is excited about our new software charting program The Art of Timing the Trade Chart in collaboration with Tom O'Brien and using his best-selling book The Art of Timing the Trade Your Ultimate Trading Mastery System that will complement any trader's methodology Using this first-of-its-kind program The Art of Timing the Trade Chart allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups including guardleafs, ABCs, butterflies and much more. The Art of Timing the Trade Chart is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days, weeks or even months searching to find and right now we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month We are so confident that you're gonna love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day unconditional money-back guarantee Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software Get your copy of The Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting TFNN.com This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com And we're back Microsoft Question from Ron who asks Why do I think Microsoft has a little downside? It's just the way that the option market makers are pushing this They think at a maximum it closes at $135 on Friday At a minimum they're pretty much looking at $128 That's where I get the kind of $10 downside possible Certainly not a lot of upside Even them just being not outperforming yet again may be enough Even if their earnings are fine they may not be the bopo blowout that this stock has had on the way back up Let's actually bring that up MSFT What is it? So you got a little bit of that pullback already today You got that gap at $135 I mean if they were just kind of average earnings I could see us just sitting at $135 but I have a feeling that the market is priced in for yet another $10 to $15 higher in Microsoft that they may not show up with Certainly see it in the options And again Options are one of the few places where you can see the way everybody bets You know the way that they're betting and you know what they pay pretty much every day Not a lot can be hidden in the option market There's a few things you can do synthetic moves which is be in the futures and also be in the options at the same time to kind of cover up some of the stuff that you're doing But it is interesting CCJ yesterday had a huge move down So I think we were talking about that a couple of days ago not yesterday Anyway you got through it with almost 11 million shares to a 3 million share previous low kind of bouncing around out here But pretty interesting to see that you can't with all the new uranium plants going into China 20 or 30 of them and the rest of them going in the rest of the world issues getting going Cisco as we were talking about a lot of these stocks up at the highs testing previous volume with very light energy Yesterday he had a little less than 9 million shares going into a 57 million share June 21st high and 46 million share May 17th high and 20 million share April 16th high So again a lot of these stocks just look rather pressed and as far as I can tell like I said yesterday we had a just in western digital as they pushed it higher had only about 12% shorts when it's a lot of times 20-30% Generally when everybody gives up shorting is one of the best times to go out and short a stock because you are going to have the kind of big moves even in a kind of a mild move today when they give up is generally when you have the big moves in the market generally that's right after the market makers and their street have pushed all the easy hands out and sold any shares that they have to the shorts who have to cover in an up trending marketplace. Cisco as we talked about that one another one that kind of scratching my head about yesterday about 7 or excuse me Friday about 17% shorts yesterday only about 8 so as you move a little higher in these when everybody quit shorting a pretty good indication that the markets ready to turn and I guess it's just kind of built into the markets or they wouldn't work everybody has to do the worst thing at the wrong time and generally doing the opposite side of what everybody does is not a bad strategy to see what else we have going on here in the markets any other questions here we'll see let's take a quick look at Bank of America EAC see what those guys have to say this is just going back into this this gap up from the 28 this was a Fed bounce so you're coming back into it energy was fairly decent you got 101 million shares you're down on about 46 and 37 million shares today yesterday 46 million shares but again I wasn't that big a move it did have kind of at least a move out of the sideways action that did have for a while other stocks that I find kind of interesting that look a little toppy Expedia EXPE going into it's February 8th high of 135 and 13 cents got to 136 26 today with just 1.5 million shares so far again this is another one that tends to have a lot of short positions in it 18% yesterday with these guys say it's actually been dropping overall short interest for about 3 months so generally when you go up everybody quit sorting and eventually hit the high on light volume may even exceed it a little bit and then you roll to two questions Hasbro I don't see anything in this yet doji today which is the first sign we haven't talked about herb life in probably 6 months they sell chemicals under the name of vitamins vitamins are nothing but chemicals I always like to say that because it irritates the people that are big on vitamins but it's true a handful of chemicals that are the important chemicals to actually have for human development this was always being pushed around I just find it kind of interesting that this is I actually had a little bounce out of here after testing a 4.5 million share low from June 21st 2.2 million shares 2.2 million shares thoughts and work on NBL take a look at that that was an earnings bounce on back I wasn't okay I thought it was since it was the same day as the as the Fed announcement probably more to do with that what is this NBL take a look at that one noble you're back to this gap not bad gapped up on 8.5 million shares or 8.8 million shares on the 20th of June back down into it with about 2.8 million shares all I got to say is that supply continues to out strip demand for energy around the world and on the short term could you get a bounce you certainly could but the only thing that keeps oil prices high is the Iranians threatening to shoot people and things you just wonder when the end of that comes to an end so many times you can cry wolf and eventually one day maybe there will be some shooting but I don't see a lot going on in that now I have I hear the music we'll be back in a minute if you're in the CD market and looking for a secure investment the Tiger First mortgage program may work for you the security for these first mortgages are building lots in the tax opportunities zone in St. Petersburg, Florida the tax act of 2018 set up tax free zones across the country where you can build and hold for 10 years and pay no tax on the profits which makes these lots valuable the investment is anywhere from 30,000 to 75,000 the interest paid is 7% yearly on a monthly basis according to bankrate.com the best rate for a 4-year CD in the country as of February 20th is 3.1% a $50,000 investment at a normal 4-year CD rate of 3.1% would give you income of $1,550 per year or $6,200 over the 4-year period that same $50,000 investment in the Tiger First mortgage program would give you $3,500 per year or $14,000 over the 4 years what should you prefer? $6,200 or $14,000 of interest on your investment on 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was gonna flip fairly quickly I can make some quick bucks this week the whole market though just looks like it's ready to roll again we're gonna look through a lot more charts here today but when you see really weak stocks like western digital run back up to previous highs and you look at the inter-day action of it not so much to the charts but if you watch the inside part of it the inside days and watch it trade you can start reading the tape and see that they're running a lot of these guys out and a lot of people not gonna say it just kind of chasing after it but yes I got a question about whether I think technology takes it in the chin and I would say a little or a lot I don't know it depends on what they say for uh Microsoft but we're already starting to see uh kind of weakness in Apple it's down a buck um and for a market that's only moved 10 points down in the S&P cash with 30 points 34 points in the Nasdaq I think tells you kind of a lot and that is that we're very much overbought in this market and also incredibly light volume we get into any kind of selling uh could be fairly sharp and uh scary uh to today anything else going on here that I wanted to look at um we looked at noble energy we looked at HLF uh what else is it out here uh Illumina I wanted to follow up on this the other day uh it's still holding 300 bucks um but a lot of these stocks are set up exactly this way and why they won't all fall apart like this there are a lot that have just been run up excessively uh anything below a nine-day moving average that closes you want to be uh you may not want to short it but I think you want to be long it for the next few days take a quick look at micron it hasn't quite done it but it is a huge parabolic move off that last earnings of the 26th of June um again it's held above that it's down today without much earnings this one may take a little bit longer as I said western digital much weaker stock over time than micron has been um still no major damage to micron unlike western digital off it's 130 dollar highs so it you need to have some context in looking at these stocks but um you know there's a lot of stocks that have been pushed fairly hard and some shorts and I'm seeing those being squeezed uh yesterday and today and I think that's what kind of sets up a lot of these let's take a quick look at apple did I spend a lot of time on that I don't think I did uh apple right back up into its gap it's got a gap at 197 it's also got a gap at about 182 um I don't know why this thing's been doing so well other than the fact that they're selling a lot of accessories uh but I've been into some of the retail stores and apple at least around here anecdotally has been weak but it may just because it's been so darn hot down here in Florida uh we talked about party city uh payload city excuse me uh over the last couple of days again these things are up very light volume they're kind of pulling back and generally when that last blade of straw gets thrown on the camel's back uh they start bounce out they start breaking uh but there's just so many of these out here with fairly light volume at the highs we looked at seas yesterday which is a sea world um this one again why I'm glad that I'm in a lot more of the August uh puts I do think we could probably come back down and a lot of these to the nine days over the next couple of days and start getting I got a question about whirlpool uh it's up but not much uh right now we're up on 700,000 shares compared to previous 800,000 share high um see the thing is though these are just some gaps and you're really back to fairly stiff resistance that goes back to this gap that started on the what is that July 20 30 2018 with 1.3 million shares that's really where the resistance levels are in as it came off the 16525 high on May 22nd of 2018 see what else we have question about the TLT coming in keep those cards and letters coming uh to to to to um I mean you again a lot of these things are probably going to continue to follow the three by three or nine day moving average down we closed under that on the ninth and underneath it doesn't really seem uh on the move today that you're going to challenge it uh we talked a bit about where I thought that the TLT was coming back to and that was uh on the uh uh confluence levels see I probably was doing this there we go um that confluence level that looks really good out here is that one yeah one year um really looks good is this one right around 125 you do have kind of a little bit of a fatter one out here 128 to 127 but my guess is that when this does find a low it is going to be in that one 26 125 range in the TLT on this pullback and this has just been one of the most over uh joined trades of all time and that also means that you could blow out the 125 just because you got so many people on the wrong side if this thing starts moving lower so uh give me call 877-927-6648 uh CBO E bounce around here today in these uh again testing a previous 1.2 million share high on November 5th of last fall at 1.1480 got to 1.1473 today about what uh we got here about 566 thousand so far but uh Expedia we did that HLF did that uh JDS T quick look at this one again we haven't come into a pop in this to get you back on the other side so there is no signal for uh selling gold yet at least in this we'll look at the dust real quick too uh I don't see it although we're getting close and maybe that's telling us a little bit about the rest of the market and that is that you got below the 16 million share low on June 25th at $10 50 cents what do you got today about 7 million shares there isn't a lot of heavy pressure in the dust but you don't have it closing above the nine day yet I do like this pattern and close above it probably mean that you've got a good shot at least of getting back into $13 and 50 cents if not higher we'll be back in a minute and we'll be one of the best of the best in everything you do in life it's the most common trade that we tigers and tigers share if you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done which is how to time the markets I'm Steve Rhodes author of mastering probability and for the last 12 months timer digest has been tracking my newsletter signals which have earned me the ranking as their number one market timer in the nation for the S&P 500 12, 6 and 3 months timer digest also ranks me as the number one market timer for gold as well the fact is markets can be timed and I'll teach you the exact set of tools that I use that has transformed me into one of the best in what I do sign up for mastering probability today by clicking on the newsletter tab on the homepage of TFNN.com and get immediate access to workshops where I take you step by step how to use an extraordinary set of tools as well as provide great market calls too sign up today David White's newsletter the technology insider is focused like a laser on finding the next big things in technology if you had invested only $10,000 in Microsoft in 1986 you'd have been a millionaire by 2000 disruptive technology like Microsoft is the key to these massive long term profits and the tech insider is the vehicle from TFNN to capitalize on these opportunities this is the go-to newsletter that identifies monitors and profits on mostly little known cutting edge companies with great long-term prospects David's experience is as an inventor of Emmy winning animation products for TV and Hollywood the propelled a company public match that with 14 years as a full time trader and he's uniquely qualified to guide you through the light speed world of ever-evolving high tech if you're ready to ride the next big technology bull market for less than $40 per month log on to TFNN.com and get your two week free trial to the technology insider get in on the ground floor of the next big thing today since 1984 Basil Chapman has been using the Chapman wave methodology to advise traders of his expert market opinion while originally hand drawing charts from the late 1970s into the 1980s Basil noticed that prices under most circumstances virtually always had a certain number of legs to the upside before declining sharply later Basil on the computer software which included the standard market technical indicators enhance the degree of accuracy in calling price turns as well as market trend calls thus was born the Chapman wave sequence using the Chapman wave methodology along with other indicators Basil Chapman advises his subscribers of his expert market opinion each market day with his opening call newsletter right now you can get a two week free trial to the opening call Basil's daily trading newsletter by visiting the front page of TFNN.com cancel it anytime during that trial and pay absolutely nothing get your two week free trial to Basil's newsletter the opening call today by visiting TFNN.com catch Tom O'Brien professional trader and educator founder of TFNN also a special guest on CNBC Tom will bisect and dissect the markets the Tom O'Brien show next on TFNN well the IYT finally pretty much cleared the gap that goes back to May 7 I had 600,000 shares today got about 239 got to 195 65 and I think that's about all you can look at but that's you got a ton of resistance up to 200 bucks so the easy money is done but you want to watch this it does have three gaps three gaps could get filled this market decides to turn one of the big indicators that I see in the market many times at highs also is when stocks that have been left out for dead finally come back to life and run huge amounts of short sellers broke who are greedy to actually sell cover their shorts another huge day out here for blue apron and a lot of that is short covering a PRN and you got here he had like 35% shorts in this on on Friday you know you just have to look at everybody piling on a stock like that and know you're going to get gored I don't know what else to say about it other than that there is some rumors about beyond meat and that is company said it would start adding beyond meat products to its issue and I don't know why that would run everybody other than the fact that this stock is short out its gills see if I can find it here we're going to break not that bad anyway a lot of shorting in the last couple of days we'll be back in a minute and finish up this show go with it