 Hi, everyone. This is Mish Knight, Chief Strategist of MarketGauge.com, coming to you after the close, November 29, 2023, here in the US. And of course, a lot going on and also kind of nothing going on because the market has sort of found a space, at least in some of the indices, really essentially in a range, while some of the commodities continue to shine like gold, which we'll talk about. Others have come back from the dead like oil, which we'll talk about. Others are still dead like gas. And the dollar is declined and people are now starting to wonder whether we're going to get the Santa rally after a big Black Friday, Cyber Monday, or whether or not we're actually going to see the market peak out and maybe actually fall. A lot of this, of course, has to do with what happens with Fed policy and interest rates. And there is also equal sides of that table. They're going to raise, they're going to pause, and they're also going to start cutting as soon as the beginning of 2024. So that's why we love charts so much. So let's start here with the S&P. This is through the Futures in the CBOE. And when I spoke to you all last time, we mentioned that if it got through 4500 and 4550, most likely we'd see 4600. Well, we haven't quite got there yet. We got close today. The high today was 4587. So we were about $13 away from that. But we also remember talked about this gap that's been filled. Generally, that's a good sign, but that's not necessarily a given. So this was kind of an interesting potential reversal. So if that's the case, if we're actually going to see a reversal, then naturally you want to look at today's low 4547, a gap below, I think would be a much deeper correction in store. If we actually come in a little bit higher and let's say can't get through 4560, I would still have more of a negative bias, above I'd have a more positive bias. And getting back, if we do break down under that low of 4547, then I think we could be looking at about a 10% correction somewhere between a five and 10% correction, which would be about a $450 move. And that would be quite devastating to people and certainly catch them off God. But hey, you never know. In the meantime, though, if we do break that, if you wanted to be much more active, then I would say your next point really to look at, you might see a little bit of support somewhere here around 4528, probably better support down here at around 4496. Yeah, that would mean breaking 4500, which could be done pretty easily considering how overbought. And going back 4560, that above were a little bit more bullish. And of course, then we would have to start looking at these highs here at around 4600. So we also talked about the dollar versus the yen. And remember, we said, we thought that perhaps the dollar had topped out against the yen. And that maybe we would see our initial move to around 148 or 14750. That was based on this low right here. And certainly last week that happened. And you know, this is why I love these charts, because look what happened after that after it held here, people thought, okay, that's it buying came in and guess where it failed right up here at that 50 day moving average. So that tells me right now that that was your great resistance up around that 14970 75. So now we close weaker today as the dollar is down closer to around 102. And our next place we have to look of course is going to be around at this 146 level. I actually think the best support the place where I would start to think that we might get a more serious pop would be somewhere around 144.70. So let's put it this way, we get up over 148. Maybe this was it. You have to be very flexible. And we'll have another attempt back up at that 50. We clear it of course, then that means the dollar has gotten stronger. That would also by the way support the case for maybe the S&P selling off. And on the flip side, even though these relationships are kind of wonky, if we can't get back through 148, and we break down under this 146 level, like I said, I would expect to move down a little bit lower, probably looking somewhere around this 144 level. And then we can again see at that point whether or not we're starting to look oversold. And so right now, what we're seeing is we're not quite there. But people are talking about tomorrow being the end of the month. If we close up here, this will be the highest closing month that we've had in gold for a very, very, very long time. Number one. And number two is we are also close to reaching another high if we can take out this level right here, which would be 2085. That's why a lot of eyes are on that number. So let's see what can happen. Now I did tell you that if the next time we got a close over 2000, this would not look back. And clearly, we've had this little gap up even in the futures market. And that's the case. We're running parabolic. That's what these commodities do. Coco, by the way, made a new all-time high today. I'm not going to show you the chart. I just thought I'd mention another example of parabolic move in commodities. So we're going to go back a little bit here. We do have maybe some slight resistance coming up at around this 2078 before we actually get to this point of 2085. But these are just points. And I think the whole time was extremely different. This, of course, is when the Fed started raising rates. And this is, of course, when right after we had the bank debacle and the Fed did a little bit of easing and that's what brought this up. And then things went back to going into equities and gold loss favor. But we're in a very different point right now. The Fed doesn't look like it's going to be doing any tightening, at least not just yet. So we don't have to worry about that. And if the market starts coming off, like we just talked about in the dollar declines further, like we just talked about, or even if it doesn't, this now is in a position where the Western countries have not even really started buying gold. And so even though we've had a lot of buying throughout the Asian countries in particular, here, this could mean that people start to get nervous. And you get back over that 2085-2100. Off she goes. So in the meantime, let's look at some near term points. So if you look at the high here, and then you look at the low today, they're very well lined up. So the low today was 2055. Keep that number in your head. If we break down into 2055, maybe we need to fuel up again. And I would be looking for a move not below 2000. 2010, 2015 would be my point. If we hold that 2055, obviously, if we can get through that 2075, I just showed you back here. This, I think, will not even be a factor. And off we'll go up to that 2100 level. So here's another commodity that I have not really relented my longer term bullish stance on, even as everybody got super bearish. And so right now, this is now transferred to the January contract, December contracts over. And we were looking at $72 as the low there. And at this point now, since we have to change months, we have to say the low in this particular case was, well, it was close enough, $72.37. So that's the number we're playing off of it for a longer term trade. Interesting as we've bounced now, one, two, three, four times right to the 200 day moving average. So you know, that's going to be important. So let's say over 7840, that would tell me that we start looking back at 80. Under 7840, where do I think maybe, maybe, maybe the bears can take control again. And of course, we have an OPEC plus meeting coming up. That for me would probably be under 75. So above 75, I have to stay positive. Above the 200 day moving average in 7840, definitely positive. Above 80, even more positive. And of course, below that 75 number, then we can start looking back to see whether or not this actually sells off further. And we start to look at numbers closer to say 70. Moving on to natural gas. Again, no more Ds. We're now looking at January contract here. And I guess the most positive thing we can say is that it cannot break down just yet under this 200 day moving average. We got a pretty good wall of support here at two and a half. And you have to think, can this really get much lower than two and a half? I guess it can. But I kind of would think that that would be a bit of a floor. But how would I know? Well, first of all, it would have to hear hold this 200 day moving average. And I'm widening this out here, which comes in at basically 271. Okay, so that's a number 271 holds 271 great for breaks 250 back in play. If it holds 271, though, where do I actually start getting even a little bit excited? And I got to say, I'm not very excited about this at all. But it would have to be once we got back over three, or 301 302. Even though we're going to run into problems here at 320, 301 302 at least tells me that we've taken out all this resistance we saw back here before we made this move up. And then it goes that it shows more of a potential bottom. So 301 302 would be the first line in the sand, 320 better. And of course, we can't really talk about any kind of a bullish move in this, until we get through on a closing basis for more than a day, 343. And then ultimately, over this particular high right here at, well, that says low 364. Okay, so 323, three, here's your main point points 250, 270, 3, 320, 350, and then 370, we get through all of that. And we got ourselves maybe a new market. Until that point, if it just chops around, find something else to trade. Finally, I have to follow up here with the soybean chart, because we've been talking about soybeans. And again, so technical, holding the 50 day moving average. So here's your line in the sand 1316. And yet not able to get through the 200, which is at 1377. So we closed here today at around 1347. Let's round it up to 1350 above 1350. I'm actually still kind of liking this, particularly if you look at an ETF soybean chart, that's been basing out for a very long period of time, futures looks much more scattered. So above that point, I would start to think, yeah, maybe, maybe, maybe we can tackle the 200. And clearly, if you really wanted to wait for some major confirmation, let's wait for a close over 1400, in which case all of this starts to look very bottoming. And then I think we can easily see a move up to 1550 or above. Okay, that's it for now. Thank you so much for watching. Hope you have a great afternoon, happy weekend, and I'll be with you again real soon. Bye for now.