 Okay, traders. Welcome to this week's live analysis session with me, Patrick, just before you get started here, can I do a quick audio and visual check if you can see tick me a welcome screen and you can hear me loud and clear if you could type a Y in the chat box and we will get going here. Also, before we start, if you do have any questions, if you can just make a note of them during the session and I'll open up Q&A at the end of the presentation. So, before we jump into today's discussion, obviously important to adhere to the risk disclaimer. We know that trading any financial instrument carries an inherent risk, but most importantly for today's discussion, any views or opinions expressed by me today are solely mine. They're not indicative or representative of those held by Tick Mill UK or Tick Mill Europe Limited. So for those who are here for the first time, a brief introduction to myself. This is Patrick, normally after I graduated from university, I joined a city PLC consulting firm after a couple of years learning the ropes I left with some colleagues and went on to co-found and successfully exit a consulting startup post-emerge in late 2004. I also explored my passion for markets with some capital to play with and some time on my hands I started day trading and more appropriately day gambling, the S&P 500. And after some early beginners luck, I racked up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case, my beginners luck ran out. As the market phase changed, I began to average down into what we're ultimately going to prove to be significant losses. I actually ended up giving back all the gains I've made and took a six figure hit to my personal capital. To say this was gut-wrenching, it's over experiences and understatements. And I really have to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the markets. So I decided to get serious about trading, sort out a mentor with excellent trading track record and really spent, I guess, 18 months to two years working with my mentor to develop and understand the trading strategy that suited my personality. And this is an important aspect of trading that many overlook when you're looking at trading strategies, really important to align your strategy with your personality and certainly from a time frame perspective, that's important. So during this period I extensively back-tested and forward-tested, developing the strategy, underpinned with a rigorous risk management approach. But most importantly during this period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game and probably the most important watershed shift I made was from being a highly goal-orientated financial gains focused individual to really becoming purely process-orientated. What does that actually mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could be made from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the market in the form of losing trades. Once you become process-orientated and you have that professional trading mindset and you understand the true nature of trading, simply being a numbers game in which you are playing the probabilities, you lose the emotional investment and that hellish emotional rollercoaster of living and dying by the outcome of individual trades. So I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or a string of trades. My focus is on the next hundred trades because I know by focusing on excellence and execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi-strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. The performance figures you can see on the screen are from 2013 when I started managing investor capital through my managed accounts service, delivering annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multi-million dollar portfolio. Since 2010, I've also personally mentored over a hundred private traders of all experienced levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to consistently returns from the markets. I've consulted to numerous brokers and trading education brands contributing written content, webinars and live presentation content, a range of topics from market analysis to trading strategy development and execution. In addition to my fund management and private mentoring, I'm also a resident market expert for TickMill where I provide a daily market outlook and a daily chart of the day is set up that I'm watching in the markets. You can actually sign up through the TickMill blog to get those delivered to your inbox and that will give you a real flavour of how I scope and frame the markets and how I ultimately deliver consistent profitable returns. Further, I guess my passion project is as head of trading and trader education for a leading trading education brand that is careerswap.com offering development and funding to retail trading talent. So if it's careerswap we don't just develop retail traders market and trading strategy knowledge, we work on mindset development through a structured program that culminates in managing the firm's capital at zero personal financial risk on a profit share basis. And those that are interested in learning more you can see on the screen now there's a number there you can call the trading desk in London, or you could send an email through to the guys, and they'll come back to you with any relevant information that you require. So that is a flavour of my background and where I'm coming from and now we will jump into the charts we've got a bunch of interesting opportunities that some of which are potentially going to deliver opportunities today even. Firstly, I'm going to start with the equity indexes. We've got the S&P 500. What we're, what I'm looking for in the S&P 500 is an interim high to be developed. Whilst we hold this support at the 3900 level. I'm actually looking for a test above the 4000 level and watching for bearish reversal patterns we've got a weekly and a monthly our three pivot points up here and we've got weekly projected range resistance at 4040. We could see a squeeze higher here into the back end of the week, watching for bearish reversal patterns to set short positions, initially targeting and move back down to 3860 here and potentially the sending trend line support at 3790 level. The Dow Jones here a little bit weaker than the S&P at the moment was strongly yesterday we've note this momentum divergence we discussed this last week, but this is obviously on the daily time frame, excuse me. And we've got significant divergence developing here so any test in terms of, in terms of the Dow Jones this is the type of thing I'd be looking for here. Any push up into this zone here the ascending trend line resistance at the 32,200 level we've also got that weekly monthly our three 32,295 and we've got weekly projected range resistance so any reversal patterns up in here I'm looking for a move certainly down to test the 30,881 level potentially back into this 29,738 area. The one that's really been of interest to me this week is the Nikkei. I was looking for a test of this confluence zone just above. Well, we've got it, we've got a test I was looking for a test of the 31,000 level. I'm just short of that potentially going to put in a bearish reversal plan today so in terms of my strategy, if we can get a close below the five period BWAP here 30,158, and there'll be an opportunity on the short side, looking for a test of the ascending trend line support here 28,800 and 29,000 these prior highs will be the initial objective to get through the trend line, then look for a test of the primary trend line back down to 27,000 dollar. So dollar, obviously under pressure this is the Dow Jones dollar index equal weighted versus for FX major so we have the Aussie the yen sterling and the euro. So here we're seeing a bit of weakness you've traded into this trend line resistance for almost a fourth test here, and we're getting a potential bearish rejection candle developing here. If, if that plays out today and we get a red close then I would anticipate we're going to take out these this trend line support here at the 116 level, and I'd be looking from moved down into 115 as the next downside objective. So we're already starting to roll over here in terms of the site indicator which is flipping bearish as well. So pay attention to this equal weight of dollar index, in terms of the potential next leg to the downside in terms of the dollar, the broader index. This is dollar index versus six major currencies. The, what we've got here is the potential if we can hold the 90 level that we could actually see another leg of upside here in terms of dollar index to test a quality objective up to 9252. However, we've traded into the projected weekly range resistance, and we're seeing, we're seeing a reversal here now. So, similar to the equal weight of dollar index, it may be that we've seen the end of this corrective phase here. So we want to see a breach of this trend line support to encourage the view that the dollar correction is, is complete and we will be headed lower. Ultimately, I'm looking for a test at 8750 on the dollar index, once we start to roll over here again. So keeping an eye on both of those dollar indexes for the double confirmation there. And what's been driving a lot of the market action recently has been the US 10 year yields here, trading up to 130 we've taken out the trend line resistance. So we've got probably got some some clear water here certainly up potentially to 150 143 150 area. If we can hold outside of this trend channel now, and you can see we've got a steep trajectory developing here now. You certainly could see it's up at this 150 level in terms of US yields. Gold. Gold whilst we, once we hold this pivot is swing high here at 1960 I'm looking for a test of 1653 in terms of gold, or certainly down into the trend channel support at 1715 area from there. So some bullish reversal patterns then there'll be an opportunity on the long side but at the moment, watching for a break here to take this down into that 1717 15 area, which also represents the projected monthly range support so certain potential that we trade to test that so crude oil. I posted this one on the blog this week we've tested up into the resistance zone I was tracking here at 62 40. We're seeing a bit of reaction here, we're going to close today back through 6050. So that would be a, an opportunity to do something on the short side in crude oil, looking ultimately for a test of the ascending trend line support somewhere down to 5750. Then what I've been looking for is bullish reversal patterns to set long positions, looking for a test of the projected ascending primary trend line here at up to $70. So if we took out this trend line support, then we can easily be backing to these prior highs here at the 5390 level but initially, if, if there's a confirmation today then the downside objective will be into this 5750 level. Copper also traded has traded right into the projected ascending trend line resistance. So this is one that you could actually look. So if we just flip to the four hour chart here. You can see what could potentially get a signal on the four hour chart. What I've been looking for will be a close through 389 so that would flip the, the VWAP bearish, and with the nice momentum divergent got there into this resistance zone and then that can be an opportunity. So moving into what could ultimately become a daily signal, if we go back to the daily charts. So we've got a bit of work to do obviously to get a reversal today but these are the areas the collection points you want to pay attention to so I'd look, I'd be looking at the close in the next 45 minutes to see if there's a bearish rejection there in copper to do something on the short side. So initially you target retest the prior highs here, 372, ultimately what I'd look for is a test of the ascending trend line support primary trend line support down to 350 in terms of copper Bitcoin, been on the 10 has as is well publicized. So before now if Bitcoin is this projected ascending trend line resistance, we've got the monthly R3, jetted weekly range resistance somewhere up towards 56,700, and I think from there we can see a pullback to test the the interim trend line support back to 48,000. I think we can squeeze higher than to get up into the yearly R3 towards 63,000 level in terms of in terms of Bitcoin. I'm trying to break out this trend channel I've been talking about this with the guys on the trading team effects Chris what this 640 level is a monthly trend line. And it's one that appears to be holding with the dollar one here so if if you can take out the descending trend line on a closing basis, then I think this potential scope for further upside here in terms of the dollar one. Certainly, you could be exposing the, the pivot point for a test, but what with when you're in this type of trend scenario where we've been heavily trying to do that so I prefer to play this on the second low so what I'd be waiting for be a close somewhere up here let's say, and then get that secondary low as the entry opportunity to at least target a three way corrective pattern and potentially something more significant if we can get up to a test about, sorry, yearly pivot points. So, finding some finding some resistance. Excuse me sorry about that. That was me guys. Here we go. Looking for dolly yen to pull back here and test this ascending trend line support 104 87. That could be a zone whereby if we get some bullish reversal patterns. I like that, like that on the long side, certainly with this yield support that we're getting from US 10 year. So, if we can get a pullback into this 105 bullish reversal patterns here, I think we target the primary to sending trend line up towards 109 so that's one that's going to be on the radar for me into probably until next week. Swissy. Well, we had a, we had an attempt to the upside here out of this inverse seven shoulders that I talked about, rejected at monthly range resistance, trade back down into monthly range support. Now, again, we just traded straight into weekly range resistance and we could potentially roll over here so want to keep an eye on this we think is this. Maybe the story in terms of this dollar index if if we see weakness into the close tonight, but this was the three way of correction and the upside is finished for now in terms of the swissie. And that would set up this as the impulse like to complete the bigger five wave move to the downside. Let me just show you what I've been thinking in terms of the swissie. So, something like that develop. It's really want to pay attention closed and close today back through the pivot point here at 89 30 would potentially flip the daily chart bearish. And so this could be the start of the next leg to the downside in terms of terms of the swissies keeping on into the clothes. Still contained by its major descending trend line have been going to close above it and what I've been looking for now is a move down to test 125 support and then potentially we have a wedge that could complete so looking something like that. Then maybe we get a more sustained corrective move in terms of the movie but at the moment like this to the downside. Looking for 125 level euro. Short running yesterday they look good but we just held them we do range support to the tick almost here and potential now for a bullish reversal here today we want to see a close back through 121. If we did then that sets up move to certainly test monthly range resistance 122 50. And we'll have to see then if we can if we can take out the monthly range resistance then then we're probably going to take out the 123 50 high on route to 125 tests in terms of the euro so it's really going to be about the close here today. In terms of the euro that dollar index, you're a yen. I'm looking to sell this if we can break below the overnight lows. We had a pullback here and holds the test of the view out coming in around 128. And then we might roll over some I'm looking to sell a break of the overnight lows, and then I'll use a protective stock just above the overnight highs. We broke out of this range resistance at the 127 area, and then we got this big bearish rejection yesterday plenty of momentum divergence suggesting the potential for a false break and giving us an opportunity on the short side. So certainly we can get tested at the primary descending sorry ascending trend line back down to 126 15 euros sterling. This is one that I've been watching for a while now looking. This again is a big trend line test potentially coming up here for your sterling take you out to the weekly chart. So what we're doing basically sitting right at this or potentially about to test this trend line support monthly chart. So what I'm looking for there is a move into looking for 86 level the test of 86 trade 86 53 at the moment, and you can again this one is one I've watched on the hourly or the four hour chart intraday reversals. We can see a decent bounce at least here for your sterling from from this trend line so keeping a very close on that rules have got projected monthly range support down to 85 82 so watch that area closely. Again opportunity there in your sterling your Aussie. It's testing community monthly range support weekly S3 but weekly projected range support just below and you can see here with this is subdivided quite nicely five wave move and got some decent divergence down here so watching the bullish reversal patterns here at the level of your Aussie and certainly play for a test of the descending trend line up to 157 50 if we get the signal sterling looking to knock on the door of 140 here pay very close attention to weekly range resistance 140 20 got this ascending trend line resistance so this is set up pretty nicely we've got bags of momentum divergence down here. So 140 15 140 20 is level I'm watching for bearish reversal patterns that short positions. If we take this out and the next time the top next area I'll be watching for potential counter and play will be the 141 level where we've got weekly R3 and monthly R3 so that's that's on the radar. Sturling yen testing it's it's resistance zone here you could get as high as 148 but I think. I want to pay attention to how we trade there and get some bearish reversal patterns I certainly think we're going to move to retest this trends trend channel support down to say 145. The concern with this one is we don't really have any divergences such so it may be that we take this out and then what I'll be paying attention to would be the primary trend line resistance up towards 151. Certainly, if we get in there and get some reversal patterns then that would be an opportunity on the short side and sterling and sterling Swiss. There's nothing for me to do right now sterling Kiwi I'm watching this area here 94 30 any any rejection there I think sets up a nice pullback to retest this support area at 92. And from there I think we can set a potential base then to move higher looking for that yearly pivot up towards 198. So that one's another one that's on the radar probably for next week now. Ozzie. Well kind of just sideways trade at the moment so I was looking for some consolidation here, and a bullish reversal pattern set long as looking for a test of the 80 level, and we could extend higher there through now to the 81 level, which would be the last sending trend line resistance third test should hold on that first test of that level. And then we can get a pullback to retest this 78 level of support before building a base for the next leg higher in terms of the Ozzie. Ozzie yen. And this one if we can get a move into the 83 just about the 83 handle bearish reversal patterns we've still got momentum divergence. I think we can get a move back down then to retest the 80 handle as support for trying to build a base there for the next leg higher. Kiwi sitting at trend line resistance here bearish reversal today and I will be looking at this on the short side. And certainly we can think about a retest of the 105 80 area. So paying attention to the closes tonight tomorrow night on this Ozzie Kiwi that's, that's one that's on the watch list for sure Kiwi is looking to try and break out of its triangle here. If we can and there is plenty of upside scope for the Kiwi I think certainly we can think about 74 75 area as an exercise objective, but again once you close through through this area before, before getting in on the long side. Let's see what we've got here Kiwi yen. This is one I'm watching very closely any move into this area here, just above 77 watching for bearish reversal patterns to set short positions, looking for a retest of the primary trend, sending trendline back down to 74 20 is the area be watching Kiwi Swiss, looking for 65 20 area here got projected monthly range resistance weekly range resistance we've got this sending wedge trend line resistance coming in that if we get a reaction there. I'll be looking at that on the short side, looking for a retest of 63 50 area. Kiwi can't nothing for me to do there at the moment. Swiss yen. This is this is what I'm in at the moment on the short side. We broke through this resistance area, the bearish reversal yesterday now it's we'll have to see if we can get me follow through if we can see follow through then what I'm looking for is ultimately a test of this is sending trendlines for back down to 116 area and really want to see this follow through through the overnight loads to encourage that view. Nice divergence on the break there, which, which is the additional for me. If I'm going to trade counter trend, I need to see that momentum divergence as an additional confirmation versus the price patterns. Bit of a whistle stop tour today, but hopefully you can see where I see the potential opportunities in the market certainly watching this dollar close tonight could could set the stage for for another leg of downside. Are there any questions, anyone wants me to take a look at a chart I haven't covered. You can type it into the chat box, or equally if you don't have questions have an end in the chat box so I know that we're all on the same page and I can wrap the session up here. I'll close this one out guys hope it's hope it's helpful over the coming trading week and we will reconvene at the same time next week and like I said with for daily updates signed up to the tickmail blog to receive my charts of the day and daily analysis. Thanks very much everyone.