 Welcome traders to this week's Tick Mill weekly market outlook for week commencing the 23rd of January with me, Patrick Munley. In the US, data has continued to soften as we start 2023. Both manufacturing and service sector ISM indices are in contractory territory. CEO confidence is at its lowest level since the global financial crisis. Retail sales have fallen by 1% or more for the past two months. Industrial production has fallen from the past three and residential construction has posted six consecutive monthly declines. Despite this, the fourth quarter GDP report is expected to show that the economy expanded at a rate in excess of 2% on an annualised basis. Consumer spending should be an important driver given the strong performance in October. But aside from that, the growth will largely be focused on net trade and inventory building. This is not good growth. Imports are falling because of the deteriorating domestic growth story while inventories are increasing partly because of improved supply chains but also because demand is not as strong as business is expected. GDP growth figures over the next few quarters are likely to be much weaker. Aside from this report, durable goods orders will be strong given Boeing received orders for 250 aircraft in December up from 21 November. Strip this one-off story out and the underlying picture is significantly weaker. Meanwhile new home sales will suffer as a lagged response to the downturn in mortgage applications. Also watch out for the Fed's favoured measure of inflation, the core personal consumer expenditure deflator. Markets expect it to show a relatively benign 0.2% month-on-month reading which would confirm the using in trend price pressures. There are no scheduled Fed reserve speakers due to the proximity to the upcoming FOMC meeting and the self-implosed back-out periods. Markets are anticipating a 25 basis point interest rate increase at the February 1st meeting. Moving to the charts and the technical picture for the dollar index came close to testing our targets and I'm looking for just ahead of this one-one level from there as long as we maintain momentum divergence with our momentum study here, i.e. we're looking for a new low in price but no new low in the momentum study. We will watch for bullish reversal patterns on the four-hour time frame to engage. On the long side, I'll also be looking for a three-way corrective move back into test resistance into the weekly projected range resistance coming in at the 103 level. In terms of the Eurozone, let's see what we've got on the data slate there this week. It's a quieter week and focus, I guess, is really going to be on more on ECB officials. We had ECB officials out over the weekend continuing to talk up the hawkish stance which was led by ECB Chief of Guard last week in Davos. In terms of data for Monday, January consumer confidence, falling as prices to support uptrend in confidence are continuing to decrease. Heading into Tuesday, we get global manufacturing and services PMIs, manufacturing up to 48.5, services at 50 low guest prices providing support to manufacturing and services but the outlook does remain uncertain. On Wednesday, we get German January Eiffel Business Climate Survey looking for 90.6 global conditions thus far over the winter as the weather hasn't impacted as was anticipated. That rounds out, like I say, a pretty light data calendar in the Eurozone this week. However, we will hear from a game ECB Nagard who speaks today so watch out for continued hawkish comments from her. From a technical perspective, Eurodollar has traded into that first target zone here. We're looking at 127 extension of this potential consolidation zone coming in just above 109 and we are seeing a little bit of a pullback here. We do have active momentum divergence. I've been looking for any follow through back down through the 10870 to target and move into the base here and we can project a very short 10760s. From there, I've been looking to re-engage on the long side and I think we're going to move up to make a test towards 110. At this stage, it would really take the close back below this 107 handled suggest a deeper corrective move back into test the high-volume node here at the 10620s. Moving to the UK. In terms of data again, the quiet start to the week, no data of notes on Monday. Looking at Tuesday, obviously we will also get manufacturing on services PMIs in the UK. Both of those are likely to remain in contractionary territory, i.e. below that key 50 level conditions for UK manufacturing continue to weaken materially, service a little bit more optimistic but headwinds do remain and that is actually the only data of notes in the UK this week and I would also note that BLE officials are not scheduled to speak and will also be moving into their blackout period ahead of the second of February meeting. So from a technical perspective, sterling testing into that target zone of the 12440s. Looking for one more push here into 12460s, 12470s and again, as long as we maintain momentum divergence here, I'm looking for a pullback from this level. Certainly we can think about a test back in to have a look at support at the 12316s. However, as this area continues to sport, we are looking for ultimately for a test of the weekly projected trend channel resistance in 12750s. In terms of data for Japan, we get again tomorrow is the only data of notes in Japan manufacturing and services PMIs and manufacturing health really depends on support from demand, which is proving to be a positive in the services sector. However, last time the services print 51.1, looking for that say above the key 50 level to continue to point to a bit of health there in the services sector, but we are anticipating that manufacturing will be below that 50 level pointing to further contraction on that side of the ledger. So looking at the technical setup in terms of the dolly end, looking like we might get a test up into the trend channel resistance here that key 13170s, 13180s. From there, I'm looking for bearish reversal patterns looking ultimately to retest price like lows 127 on route to an ideal 125. At this stage, really take the close back through this trend channel resistance of 133 to suggest a test of 13470s. On the upside, moving down under to Australia in terms of data there, Tuesday we get any B business survey and November conditions still elevated at a plus 20. However, there is pessimistic new developing within the business sector within Australia. The mood continues to be pretty dire there. In terms of Wednesday, we get Westback MI leading index close signal of slowing to the low trend pace there. And we also get Q4 CPI inflation data looking for 1.6% there month over month, 7.5% annualized, trembling 1.5% and so trembling year over year 6.5%. Electricity pushing on inflation despite rebates but dwelling price inflation is moderating much faster than anticipated. There are very few negatives to the trims figure from the data which helps to boost core inflation above that for the headline. And then we ran out the wind down under Q4 PPI on Friday. Falling energy prices should see an easing on producer price inflation in Australia last time out 1.9%. With a technical perspective, those dollars starts the week on the front foot. But I am looking for this 70-20 area to act as resistance, looking for at least a corrective move back into test support at the 68-60s. And from there, we are ultimately looking to set a base and move higher. We have an equality objective in the daily time frame here versus our swing low at the 66-20s. We're looking for 73-40s which coincides with the weekly trend line resistance. Let's just get a sense of where Bitcoin is and start the week trading to our target zone at the weekend that that's just above the 23,000 level. I'm looking for corrective moves back into just below 22,000 which is a bullish reversal pattern. So as we engage on the long side, I think we should see a move up then to see a test of 23,600 as the next upside objective. And that concludes the weekly market outlook for week events in the 23rd of January. As always, trade this plan the trade. Trade the plan and, most importantly, manage your risk. Until next week, thanks very much.