 When I saw this Bitcoin price prediction, I didn't believe it, and I still don't believe it, but there is one thing about this report, and it's about the timing. And when we talk about the timing of when there's going to be a blow off top or a bull run of things happening, I have to challenge my assumptions that it's going to be in 2025, and maybe it'll be a little bit earlier. And what I am talking about is there was a report. This is from CoinDesk, and it's titled Bitcoin Could Ride a 125,000 by the end of 2024 from MatrixPort. Again, I am not going to assign to the assumption that we're going to get 125,000 and we're going to be in that area. I think price predictions are worthless. I think that the only thing they're good for is to really hype people up and potentially lose a lot of money because people just think it has to hit this amount, and they just miss out on some gains. So let that be a little bit of a guide. Take this with a grain of salt, but it's all about timing. So the article states crypto services provider MatrixPort. One of the firms turned bullish on Bitcoin says there's going to be a rally to as high as 125,000 by the end of 2024. And this is why they say it. On June 22nd, 2023, Bitcoin made a new one year high, marking the first time in a year. This signal has historically indicated the end of bear markets and the start of a new crypto bull markets. Hopefully that's true. If history is any guide, Bitcoin price could climb by 123% over 12 months and by 310% over the 18 months. Remember those two numbers, 12 months and 18 months. Based on the average return of the signals triggered in 2015, 2019, and 2020, this will lift prices to 65,000 to 125,000 plus. If you want to know the 2012 price signals and the 5,000 price since in 2013, calling an epic out of proportion bull market, that was in the very beginning. It's kind of hard to get those types of gains anymore. So this was the target ranges. And they say, yeah, by 18 months after the halving, we could see 125,731, somewhere around there. And this is where it comes into play. Matrix Port's view is consistent with Bitcoin's tendency to chalk out sharp uptrends in the 12s to 18 months after the mining reward halving. As you know, there's going to be a Bitcoin halving around April of 2024. And then we did an actual entire video about this. It was a tweet from Plan B. Yes, Plan B stock to flow, which didn't pan out after so much time. And even Plan B can, we'll test that. But all models are wrong. Only some are useful. This one just didn't make it. But there is one thing that he talked about here. And he says, buy Bitcoin six months before halving and sell 18 months after. And we did a complete video about that. And he was absolutely right. We took a look at a website called DCA-CC. Links in the description. You can do the math yourself. And it did actually work out. Now, this is all from four-year cycles. And if you've been on this channel for any length of time, you know, everything's been repeating. And so far it's intact. 2012 halving all-time high dip reset to the 15th. 2016, we had halving, all-time high dip reset. Then in 2020, we had another Bitcoin halving, all-time high, double top. And then 2022, a brutal bear market. And now we're in the reset years. And come rain or shine, no matter what happens, World War III, I do not care. We will still have a Bitcoin halving in 2024. The question is, when does the all-time high come up? And I've always been on assumption that's going to be in 2025. But I could be wrong. I've been wrong before. I am not perfect. And there is another person that challenged this belief. It was Bob Lucas. Bob Lucas was one of those TA traders, tech traders. And he took a look at the last time and he pretty much called the top. And I'm not saying that's going to be like he's going to do it perfectly every time. He'll even admit to it. He goes, look, I make mistakes as well. But there's a couple of videos I'd like you to watch. And this is what I have been doing is just to take a look at the notion of, you know, the four-year cycles in 2025 maybe comes up earlier. And there's a video called a new four-year cycle and a new season. I will link those in the description. You can take a look at those and see what you think. But again, it all comes down to challenging because one of the pitfalls that I have is that I start to get into this narrative and I think there's only one way forward. I don't take a look at the other information out there which could really screw me if I don't do the right things and take a look at the data that's right in front of my face to do those things. There's a video I'd like you also to watch. You can find this on YouTube or go to Dan teaches crypto. It's 100% free, two big videos, all my scripts I've had and valuable lessons for investing in the crypto and then why not a dollar cost average. The four-year cycle, the 2024 bull run exit strategy, the top callers, bottom callers in this updated version, when and why I'm selling 80% of my crypto and taking a look at the different indicators. And also those are things looking into the future. Now there is a pretty good video we did today, me, Ben and guy, NFA live. And if you want to get the lowdown of what's happening right now and then some other types of where we think that if Bitcoin could ever go back to 19K, which you could, there's a link in the description. Check that out over on Ben's channel. And again, it's not about making some ridiculous calls of some price predictions because no one knows. It really comes down to timing and where things are and the indicators to look for to get you to that hump. Anyhow, let me know what you think about that in the comment section and then to take a look at what's going on just the macro real quick. Just if you haven't heard jobs report came out and we are running super hot in the jobs and actually we added 339,000 jobs here in the US. It's far hotter number than the 190,000 jobs that the economists were expecting. And why this is a problem is because the Fed is trying to slow down the economy and what they want to do is raise rates so they can get unemployment rates higher so they could bring down inflation. And now with these jobs coming out, it's not looking too good for that. But we're going to take a look at why maybe it won't even matter. So with this piece here, it states, this is from Preston Caldwell, Chief U.S. Economist of Morningstar. He says, overall, the jobs report and broader economic data continues to show an economy that's not in a recession mode and perhaps is growing at a healthy pace, which is quite interesting because the FOMC Minutes is from Dan Gamberdello, Crypto Capital Venture, check out his channel. And the Fed states this, we talked about this yesterday. They believe it's going to be a mild recession later in the year than moderately paced recovery. Okay. Expect slower policy tightening. Most members anticipate at least one rate hike. Expect a slower pace of increases and some officials have reservations and suggest pausing the rate hikes. I gotta tell you, that might not be a bad situation because what everybody's been talking about is, well, if they keep doing these things, we're going to go through stagflation. I don't think we're going to hit that immediately. And that is when we see stagflations when the economy slows, which we're not seeing right now. Inflation increasing, we're not seeing that. And the unemployment rate is increasing. And actually, even though jobs have been added, so far we are seeing a little bit. I'll talk about it in a second. So with the inflation, just so you know, I know people are freaking out about this number. Jay Powell is really freaking out about it. But if you take a look at just how the inflation is in the United States, we're doing a pretty darn good job of reducing it. This is the CPI numbers. And over the last three months, three months we've gone from 4.93 to four. That's not bad. If we take a look at six months, we actually were at 6.4 and now we're at four. If we take a look over a year, I mean, we were at 8.52% and we've halved it in just a year. So when we hear about these data points in the Fed, like we've got to get 2%, we've got to do 2%. The question I have is maybe we're already there. There's a great website. It's called Trueflation. The problem with the Fed is they look at some, not outdated data, but some slow-to-information data. And what they're taking a look at is they're saying, look, right now in the U.S., it's 2.33%. How do they get those numbers? There is a link, a link in the description. It's called, it's their methodology. And they say, look, our indexes are available 30 times faster than conventional tools with daily report and key to your head. We've got 30 providers with aggregators. We ensure our representative and balance measurement. Access to more than 10 million data points as opposed to the traditional 80,000 points. You know what's great about this site? It's free. You can use it right now and check it out. Now USA, and of course it takes a look at a lot of different things, housing and transport, food and beverage, alcohol and tobacco, which did go up, which is not exciting to me. Clothing and so on and so forth. 2.33% in the USA, which is far ahead of that 4% of which we think we are at, maybe we're in between. But anyhow, the Fed is doing the job. Although I will say this, friends of ours in the UK, it's not going too hot. You guys are really high and I can understand why there's recessions, recession talk and actual recessions going on with 11 and a quarter. I think it's even higher than what's been reported by the government. So again, I don't know if we're hitting this, but I mean, as far as like inflation increasing, we're going down. And then on top of that, as far as like unemployment, the initial claims came out, and this is of course, Ben's site, get 10% off the first month, link in the description, all that good stuff. If we, I mean, look at this. We've really got to go all the way to the right and see just how things are moving sideways. And yes, the initial jobless claims went from 236,000 to 248,000, which is a precursor to the unemployment rate. And if we blow that up and take a look, we can see that, yes, it was at 3.4% and it did go up to 3.7. However, tomorrow we will get the new data for the unemployment. So we'll take a look at how that is, hopefully it's gone down. If it does, I mean, I think we're, hopefully the Fed can figure it out in time. But I will say that if unemployment does go down, they still won't like that. They're probably going to raise rates. Here's the CME Group FOMC tools and saying that look in July, in the meeting in 26 July, they're going to raise rate. And this is what the market thinks. Think 92%, it's going to go from 500 to 525, which is the current. They're going to raise it by 25 basis points. In September, they don't actually think it's going to happen. They can say it's 67%. It's going to stay the same after they raise it. First in November, they think it's still going to stay the same. 30th of December still going to stay the same. So maybe just like what the members said, maybe it's time to pause rate hikes and go from there. And lastly, before we get out of here, we had Ken Olling from Meld, which is based on or built on Cardano. It's also multi-chain on Avalanche. I want to make sure everybody knows that. It's not just on Avalanche. And there's a couple of questions about how this all works and things because Ken had talked about getting a Neobank license and using Lithuania. And the two pieces people are asking is like, why did they choose Bank of Lithuania? It seems very shady. And Colin Sanku says this, everybody in Europe is working with Lithuania, Binance, Revolut, Ramp, etc. Because as people may or may not know, I wasn't aware of this, that no banks want to work with any of us because they're all afraid in the EU. So that's why they pick Lithuania and that is it. I will link that also, that interview in the description, but that is it for today. So look, a lot of information packed a little bit of time, but a lot of things going on. If you like today's video, give it a thumbs up, consider subscribing. Everything we talk about is extremely time-sensitive, but that's it for today. So thanks so much for stopping by. I do appreciate you and I'll see you on the next one.