 The second leg of the PGA Tours, Las Vegas Swing, coming up this weekend. It is the CJ Cup at Summit. The first time the PGA Tour has been to the Summit Club. We're gonna break down this course, break down a no-cut event, hallelujah, and get you set for PGA DFS this week in the CJ Cup. Welcome on into the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire. That's right here on the FanDual Podcast network in numberfire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com. Joined here as always by Brandon Gabula. He is the managing editor of NumberFire.com. Brandon, CJ Cup coming up this week. How are you doing today? I'm good. We get some no-cut action this week. We get some stud golfers this week. So I mean, after our head-to-head last week, I think you and I both could really use a no-cut event. Oh my gosh. Yeah, it was rough. Four of my golfers missed the cut. So I presume that I lost. Yeah. It was bad, man. I felt good about the guys that I used. I thought that they were guys with floors like whatever, but I thought they had good range of outcomes for that format where it's a head-to-head type event. They did not. And the problem is a lot of the guys who torched me last week are guys I'm interested in using once again this week. So I know that I shouldn't overreact to a cut and that is a great way to build bad lives, overreacting to one week. But like, I feel okay in saying it makes me uncomfortable in going back to guys who hurt me last week. Despite there being a no-cut this week, it's still gonna be a little bit of a sore feeling heading back to those guys once again here. Yeah, I mean, I talk about this constantly whenever we have events where the winning score is gonna be somewhere around 20 under and scores go low, it just jacks up the variance. Like the cut line last week was five under. So if you don't go five under through two rounds, like you missed the cut and you could go two under twice and miss the cut. And like that's difficult for any of these golfers. Now it's easy for some of the golfers who again, are at the lower end of that range to score well on easy courses because they're the best of the best. We should have scoring this week, but we also have the no-cut. So it's kind of a crisscross of strategy there. Yeah, it's gonna be an interesting one for sure in a breakdown of the implications of the no-cut event and what the course looks like and more to get you set in just one second. But first, a quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast because not only do we have our weekly NFL podcasts on Monday for the recap, Thursday for the preview, PGA each week as well. Also NHL via Tom Vecchio, the daily geek is back with an HLCs and launching up the daily ISO just around the corner. So a lot of incentive to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts while you're there hit subscribe and also leave us a rating interview because it does help us out quite a bit. Also the Sunday million for NFL week six is already post over on FanDuel. It is still a million dollars to first place. The entry fee is just $5. Again, you can turn $5 into a million with the FanDuel Sunday million to get a chance at 2.5 million in total prizes. Just go to FanDuel.com or download the FanDuel fantasy app eligibility restrictions apply. Let's dive into the course breakdown here for the summit club. It is 7,000 and 31 yards and a par 72. And of course this is not the typical location of the CJA cup because being held in Las Vegas again this year due to COVID-19 travel restrictions. This is the first time the PGA tour has been to this course. No course data, no course history and stuff like that but we can at least take a look at the course which you'll do in a second. But first the key thing is no cut event 78 golfers in the field. We can't go full D gaffey because if you get a guy who finishes 60th you're probably not winning like a lot of money there but it does help. And I will say that for sure and it does alter the way we view golfers and roster construction for this week. So Brandon, when you take a look at the breakdown for the summit club what stands out to you as being impactful for our lineups? Yes, it's a par 72 over 7,400 yards and the average green size coming in at 6,580 square feet. So it's pretty long, it's a par 72 so we get that extra par five. So helps with scoring, helps with potential eagle chances but also more specifically birdie chances. And we want birdies on Fandall because birdies lead to fantasy points. So I think the overall takeaway from what I'm seeing is that scores are going to go low once again. There are large greens. That correlates a little bit weaker with stroke scan approach than usual. So that's something that I'm gonna try to tweak in my process. I finally had the time to dig into that kind of data. So iron play will still be my number one stat for the week but I'll be a little bit more open to the golfers who do everything else well and maybe have like lukewarm irons. I'm still never gonna target golfers whose irons are really, really bad relative to the field. There is a mix of short and long holes on this course. Three of the short holes are short par fours which yes can help shorter hitters but at least anecdotally and I don't have player type splits on types of holes like short par fours but anecdotally short par fours set up well for guys who can hit it really far. The fourth hole that's really short is a short par three of 138 yards. So that's not really gonna benefit the shorter hitters necessarily. Maybe it does if they're all better wedge players but that's not really what we're looking at here. And then there are still three long par fours and a long par three of 225 yards. So long par fours gonna benefit longer hitters, long par threes longer hitters are gonna be able to get more loft. So kind of what I'm looking at from a whole by whole breakdown is that distance should matter. Looking at like a ratio of fairway acreage to course yardage seems like the fairways are pretty wide for how long the course is which sets up again well for distance kind of negating some accuracy. So I'm looking for golfers who still have good irons. Yes, but who launch it and make birdies and the greens are bent grass this week. So you want putting on bent grass if you have that but again, distance irons and birdie are better rate. We might be a tiny bit different here because I did go stroking off the tee as opposed to distance because there are those shorter holes than you alluded to is reading through a great course primer over on numberfire.com written by some fool named Brandon. But reading that it did seem like I do want some guys who are not just selling up for distance and off the tee does overlap heavily with distance so I'm still getting distance in there but I didn't want to cross off the guys who might be accurate as well. So I went off the tee. I think that birdies are better gain is a key thing for this week. Like I really do want to emphasize that given it's a no cut event. We want those scores to be low probably gonna be a low 20 event too. So I think that even though we're different slightly on distance versus off the tee I think that the emphasis on getting birdies like more so than usual, I think it's always key but I think it's even more key this week. I think that's kind of the key overlap we've got there as a birdies matter a lot this week. Yeah and I mean, like we all probably have heard this a bunch of times but a bogey and then a birdie is worth more Fandall points than two pars. So you're gonna need birdies to climb up the leaderboard. You're gonna need birdies to avoid falling to the bottom of this field. And all the research I've done on optimal lineups on Fandall from a PGA standpoint show that generally in stronger fields and no cut fields use more of the salary cap for optimals which basically means value plays are not as safe as we might think ostensibly from a no cut event standpoint where you can't really just load up on golfers and say, well, they're not gonna miss the cut so I can roster four of the superstars and two guys who I've never heard of. That's not the right way to play it. We would need a little bit more balance this week even though it feels a little bit scary although I will say we have some value golfers in like the low 8,000 range who have a lot of appeal. So I'm gonna talk about- One of the high 7,000 range. I'm not sure if you like them yet because I've not asked you yet but I do like one guy down there. I probably could talk myself into some golfers with the seven in front of their salary. So again, I'm gonna talk heavily about a balanced lineup approach for the week but that doesn't mean 9,000 to 11,000 and nothing outside that. It's just more really not rostering the golfers in the low, low 7,000s. And I think getting access to guys in the mid range is attractive in this event because you're getting a lot of guys who have realistic win odds. Like 2% to me is realistic. Like if they've got 2% win odds that's realistic and you get more guys with 2%, that's not too bad. Win odds are very low and dispersed and pretty even for me this week in my Sims. Lots of golfers rating out pretty similarly. So I believe nobody maxes out at above 4.5% right now. Oh wow, okay, cool. We'll talk about that and talk about what that means and get you set for our favorite guys in each tier. Of course there is no course history but again we did discuss what kind of golfers typically do well here. So let's talk with some current form and talk about golfers who are coming in playing some good golf. And I think that Rory McElroy it's a pretty nuanced discussion because our most recent memory of Rory is like seeing him at the Ryder Cup. But also before that Rory was starting to pick things up with the approach play, had some issues during the FedEx Cup but there's a lot to take in with Rory and it's kind of hard to figure out what that means this week. He's 11-4, what do you see with Rory right now? Yeah, I wanna make sure that I talked about at least one of the Ryder Cupers or like superstars who haven't played much if at all since the Tour Championship over like the past four or five weeks. I'm not looking at the Ryder Cup performances to figure out current form just because that's such a unique format. That applies to a lot of the top of the field including Dustin Johnson, JT or Justin Thomas if you're not in the know. Xander Shafley, Jordan Spieth, Colin Mora-Kawa and Rory. So lots of kind of absent form for these guys. So I think it's fascinating to dig in and at least make sure that we're not overlooking some stuff but of those guys I think Rory has the most interesting or is the most interesting talking point just because he's been kind of tepid for the majority of 2021 but then turned things around in the FedEx Cup playoffs was fourth at the BMW, 14th at the Tour Championship which you'll take. He just really kind of struggled and was emotional with the Ryder Cup. So a lot of talk was basically that Rory might not play until the spring just take some time off but he's here. So again, I think he's the most fascinating. Now he does have two top fives in the past three months and leads the field and stroke scheme off the tee over the past three months as well according to Data Golf's true stroke scheme numbers which does adjust for field strength. So you're looking at off tee, I'm looking at distance. We know Rory fits both of that. We know Rory can score well enough. Maybe the case you make against Rory is even outside of the off course stuff is that Rory at his best can just stripe the irons and if they're bigger greens might matter a little bit less. That could be something that I'm over analyzing but with a course where I don't really know anything I'm at least trying to take a stand. So do you have interest in Rory and kind of a follow up there? Do you care at all about the last for some of these like studs? Like I kind of care but not a ton. I mean the interest is more variance but variance isn't always bad. So I guess like maybe you could care but like I'm not sure what it would do directionally because maybe like they had the summer, the grind of like the FedEx Cup playoffs combined with the Ryder Cup. Maybe the time off was good. Like maybe that can be a pause. So I don't know which direction it goes for it to. So maybe it just makes the range of outcomes wider but I'm like I'm bummed up or down. You're not assuming you know what all of these golfers are going through? I mean like that's the tough thing too with Rory specifically. I didn't know that you were asking about that jokingly but like it is tough to know where his head's at. And like I empathize with like what he's, you know like that's tough because we know he cares a lot and we've seen that from Rory and he's pretty honest about that which is cool. But I think the fact that he's here maybe that's like a positive. Also he is a birdie maker. We know that for sure. Like you said he fits the course well. So you asked if I had interest I would say yes. Will I get to him this week? Probably not just because I think there are other guys that I like more around him but like I'm not like crossing him off immediately. I just don't think I'll get there because I like other guys more but I'm excited to see what he does. I hope he does well for him just because I think it'd be nice for him to get a good event under his belt but I can feel good for him while not having my life just because I think Rory's fun to root for. Yeah. So I think for me I'm not gonna get to Rory himself although he could wind up being an amazing tournament play for the week if people are a little bit worried about him just because he could in theory fit the course really well but I'm with you. I prefer some other golfers in the 11,000 range too Rory. So I kind of wanted to talk about him again just because we have some of these golfers without a lot of recent events under their belt and I don't wanna like overanalyze that especially for golfers who kind of do kind of take some time off. So someone like Xander jumps to mind where he doesn't really always play a lot. He'll kind of pick and choose and play some tougher events. So I feel like most comfortable with Xander. I know the salary is not quite the same as Rory with that $400 difference but probably ultimately not gonna get to Rory myself. I think I'm on the same boat there. So let's talk about Sam Burns a bit lower not a different context talk about Sam Burns but the field's getting tougher as we see these rider cup guys coming back which does complicate the form for Sam Burns but he's really good right now. He got that win two weeks ago but he followed it up with a 14th at the Shriners. He gained 8.2 strokes Tee to green there gave back 1.2 on the greens. As you mentioned last week in the current form section he lost strokes putting when he won two but did it again last week but just really good Tee to green play again. Burns now finished top 21 in six straight events. He has a win in there runner up eighth place finish. So top 10 and a half those and top two in a third of those Burns is now fourth in data golf's true strokes gained query over the past six months. Also leads the field in birdies are better game the past 50 rounds per fantasy national. So he grades that well when you adjust for field strength he's making birdies he's 10 eight. How are you handling Sam Burns this week? I like them. I think he's a very justifiable play. I probably won't get there a ton because of the great finishes and just a presumption that will be popular because we have Tony Fino at 11,000. And that's one of those where come Friday am I gonna be kicking myself for going Burns over Fino? Maybe. So it's less to do with Burns more to deal with the assumption that will be a more popular or will be popular because of the hyper recent form. Although if I'm looking for birdies and someone who just launches it, he fits. So like it's not it's nothing to do with him. It's more about a kind of a game theory approach on this one. So if you take popularity out of it is he someone who would fit like a cash game build for you because the form is great because he makes birdies and stuff like that or are there just guys you prefer straight up without accounting for popularity more than him? I mean, he's totally fine. I have him ninth in my combo model which accounts for lots of stuff like long-term adjusted form. The stats I'm looking for the whole by whole fit for the week. He does actually rate out a little bit better than Fino from that regard, but that's one of those where like if I have 10, eight or 10, nine I can't get to Fino in a cash game lineup. I'm cool with burns. Like that's where I am with him, but probably not someone I want to build around just under the assumption that he'll be popular. Yeah, I think that for me, he grades that as being second in that tier like that's around 11,000 to 10, five tier below Victor Hovland. I like Hovland more, but I'd probably put burns a hair ahead of Fino personally. It's not a big gap by any means, but I would say it's Hovland burns Fino. You wanna do that one? Yeah, I'll take Fino versus burns. Okay, I'll do that one. No points straight up. How did last week go for bets? I want two of them. Out of two? Three, two out of three. Okay, good. I'll take two out of three if that works. Hey, for me, that's a historic offset. I need anything I can latch on to. I had a bad betting week last week and my bobble hat was hideous both in the NFL side and the PGA. So I'll take whatever I can get. Going one for three in PGA head to heads. I'll take it, man. This is all I got right now. Well, I know my lead in the NFL bobble hat is not safe. Better not because I need to rally, man. I need it real bad. But I think burns is number two for me in that tier behind Hovland. If you know, I think all three are really good and I'll probably be in this tier decent amount because I do like you said, kind of having a bit of balance. Like one guy at the top and then hitting this range with my second golfer. I think that's pretty attractive for this week. Maybe if I use like a Johnny Vegas, something like that in the 7,000 range, I could get to a second, a third guy up here. But I think overall it's a good tier and I'd like to be here a decent amount. Let's move to your second current form guy, Mark Leishman. You've been talking about him a bit now, $9,100. Golfing really well, but may not be super sustainable. What do you see with Leishman right now? Yeah, 9,100 is a salary you wanna see for someone who has two top fives in consecutive weeks. But I've come around on Leishman, that's why I've been talking about him more. And now he's actually had those finishes. I'm a little bit nervous, which probably sounds a little strange, but if you've been listening to the pod for a while, you know what's about to follow right now. And it's because he's been putting the lights out. He's gained 7.1 and 7.5 strokes from putting the past two weeks, which is pretty unsustainable. Now, the positive, and I'm not gonna take this away from him, is that he did gain at least three and a half strokes tee to green in each of those. The combination of those numbers led to a top five. He top five because he was amazing with the putter and was good tee to green. I'm not downplaying that part, but if you give him more average putting, so for him, it's been around 1.3 strokes over has passed 20 events and that does include the two outliers. So, let's take those seven to seven and a half and scale it back to his average. Instead of those top fives, we're looking at like top 25, top 30 finishes. It's not fair to do. It's in his range of outcomes to putt that well, but with a more neutral putter, Leishman would be 25th, 30th the past two weeks. So I don't want to be over eager with Leishman. Again, we know what the putting is. His putting also, if you look back in his event log, has a lot of really bad putting rounds too. So you want high variance putters. So I'm not trying to like knock Leishman for hitting the high end of his variance, but it's just kind of lukewarm to positive tee to green with super great putting and that's kind of worrisome. So where are you with Leishman? Did he pop for you at 9,100? No, I just think there are other guys there who grade out better. Like 91's not a bad range. Like going back to Paul Casey, he's around there. So Casey is there, I think that like Aaron Wise. No, same salary as who? Coke rack, baby. Oh, no, no, no. No, I mean, I like Coke rack. Okay, all right. I think the Coke rack in Vegas narrative might have gone against us. Defending champ, different course. The Coke rack in Vegas narrative has gone against us. I think we, I think we got burned last week. So I'm still on Coke rack, but you know, not going to volunteer that freely. I won. I don't care. So Coke rack, Casey, Sergio's right there at 92, Aaron Wise. Captain America, Patrick Reed. Like honestly, Killer Gooch is not totally out of play. He's not good off the tee, but like, you know, I like Gary Gooch this week. All right, Coke rack, I think I'm talking about him later. I'll sell you on Coke rack by the end of this. No, I do not sell me. I just don't want to like talk, like. I'm saying it's a, we're both saying it's a good range. Yeah. So I think the leashman's not at the top of that range. So when I'm getting in that range a lot, I'm okay not prioritizing him. Finishes are cool. Good putting is cool. I think I can get that out of other guys too though. Cool stuff. He's also, it's early, but he's tied for the lead in tags according to fansharesports.com. With? Collin Mora-Cowell, Matt McNeely and Johnny Vegas. So two years, you're the chock man this week. And Sam Burns. Who was the chock boy? So I mean, it's early to take out, but if people are talking about those four specifically. Imagine not using Johnny Vegas in Vegas though. Couldn't be me. So about Aaron Wise, one of the guys I mentioned in there is being someone I prefer over leashman in that like around 9,000 range wise, $8,900. Seems to be playing pretty good golf right now. He's gained only a 6.1 strokes Tee to Green in three of the past four events. One of those was during the FedEx Cup playoffs against a pretty similar field to this one. And he's doing it in different ways because Wise gained 3.3 on approach last week at the Shriners, but at the Sanderson Farms, he gained 2.0 off the tee, 5.8 around the greens. He's got multiple routes to grading out well from an overall strokes game perspective. The putting has also been better recently though. It's hard to tell if that'll stick or if it's just kind of some, you know, good events. Wise, not the longest off the tee, but it does rank 12th and birdies are better getting the past 50 rounds. So are you more tempted by Wise and Leishman and how does Leishman or Wise grade out to you relative to a tier we both don't mind? So I like Wise enough. I wouldn't put him in like the top like four around that salary. What's a salary? 89, yeah, that's what I thought. So I mean, I don't know if I can go up to like Paul Casey 94. I would say 92-ish is probably more realistic to be a comp. Okay, so for me, probably Max Homa. Yep. Neiman for sure. Yep. Tringoli for sure. Okay. And then like Gucchi and Wise are probably about the same for me. So it's less to do with him because I like what I'm seeing. Former rookie of the year. So like we know the potential's there and it's okay if, you know, there were some struggles if he's finding some stuff, which seems like he might be. The putting long-term is really hard to trust making it as you alluded to. So for me, probably gonna put him in that like fourth or fifth range among guys in that similar tier but also someone I'm not crossing off. So probably not like, I don't wanna say it's chasing it because that's not fair. Yeah. Probably not going there though. Okay, that's fair. I think that we're seeing him relatively similarly based on the guys you mentioned. So. Okay, can I get you a head-to-head bet on Wise? Versus Neiman? No, I like Neiman more. I agree with you there. No, I agree. I said I like the list you put above him. Do you agree? No, I like the list you put above him. Okay. All right. All right. So I'm trying to bait me. All right, dog. Let's bait. Let's take a look at what the bookmakers are saying for this week. And similar to Brandon, they're viewing things as being pretty flat in terms of the win odds for this week. Dustin Johnson, the favorite of Andal's sportsbook. He's 12 to one. Justin Thomas and Xander Shafley, both 13 to one. Colin Moorakao is 14 to one. Then there is a tier drop down to Roy McIlroy at 18 to one. Jordan Spieth is 20 to one. Then there is another tier down to Victor Hoven at 27 to one. Sam Burns is 28 with Sung J.M. and Scotty Schaeffler at 29. Tony Fiendown and Louis Westhays and round at the top group at 30 to one. So there are clear tiers here where we have the top four guys in that top tier. Then there is a tier of McIlroy and Spieth. And then a jump down again. Do you think that the tiers made DFS perspective are similar to the tiers we get for the betting odds? So it's flat with the betting odds. I feel like it's really hard to narrow down who to like most from a DFS standpoint. I do have someone who jumps out and unsurprisingly it's Xander Shafley just because I love what he can do over four rounds guaranteed with his balanced game where he can stay in the mix. The issue for me with Xander is that he admittedly doesn't like birdie fests but we also did see him finish runner up last year at Shadow Creek, another Vegas track with the same architect Tom Fazio. So that's, he was 18 under there. I don't know if I said that. But I think like the flatness of this and just what we know from an optimal standpoint historically, we should be okay. Kind of avoiding the chalk. If it's gonna be more Cala, I'll just not play more Cala even though I see the case for him. So I do see it really flat. My win odds see it really flat. So it's really hard to take much of a stand at the top. Yeah, and I think that I'd agree with that. I think that the other thing that I see is it's hard for me to prioritize Dustin Johnson at 12,000 when I don't think there's that big of a fall off. And we talked about tiers that implies fall off. I don't think there's actually a huge fall off like between DJ and speed. I don't think that's actually a tier. So I think that to me, I view the betting odds as being as overselling the discrepancy between the top of that top tier and speed specific. I think that the fall off there is not as big as the betting odds would imply. And I think that to me, I do want to get one of those top six. I'll say top six. Cause I want to do put, I do want to put McIlroy and speed in that discussion. Yes. But then I'm okay. Getting just one of them. And then dipping down to that second tier for my second golfer. Is that kind of where you're at too from a roster construction perspective? That is most likely what I'll do singling out Xander and Spieth right now as the guys I would most likely target. I feel like J. Morakawa and Spieth is my two. Yeah. Again, I would kind of think that Morakawa is trending toward being a little bit chalky. People seem to like really love Xander always, but also JT it, these no cut events. And DJ being the most popular highest salary just typically correlates with being the most popular. So yeah, there's that angle. But yeah, one of those guys plus then dropped down to like the Fino Hovland range is going to be my sort of baseline assumption lineup. Same thing for me. So let's talk about some movement here. Which golfers odds have moved since things opened yesterday? Basically everybody's. So I'm going to focus on the guys whose odds have shortened instead of lengthened because the majority have lengthened a bit. But Colin Morakawa, your boy, Morakawa Bunga, 16 to 14. I think that's relevant. He's actually 17 at one point. Well, he's actually moved a little bit more. He was 16 whenever I found it, so. Just saying the people are all in on America's here or Colin Morakawa. Yeah. Scotty Scheffler, 31 to 29. Paul Casey, 50 to 41. Mark Leishman, 50 to 48. So that's small, but this, you know, again, kind of going against the grain of everyone else's lengthening and these guys were shortening. Taylor Gooch, 65 to 55. I love to see that. Maverick McNeely, 80 to 65. Alex Noran, 180. Charlie Hoffman, 190. And then Cam Davis, 120 to 100. So I'm guessing the Leishman stuff is just a reaction to get finishes. Probably. Probably, yeah. Yeah, OK. So, and I also think that his odds are a bit shorter than they should be to begin with. So I would, if you are someone who likes to align odds with salaries, I'd be skeptical of Leishman. Casey moving a lot is nice. I would be there either way, but like, you know, makes me feel less of a donkey for going back to a guy who burned me last week at least. So that's good. It's encouraging. Which lower salary guys have odds to stand out to you? So golfers with salaries of 9,000 or lower on Fandle with the best win odds on Fandle Sportsbook include Taylor Gooch and Kevin Nod, 55 to 1. Not sure what Nod's situation is, but. He doesn't say he confirmed. There's no tag next one. This should be good. Yeah. Wauke Neiman, 60 to 1. Cam Tringalee, Russell Henley, Maverick McNeely, 65 to 1. Adam Scott, Aaron Wise, 70 to 1. Harold Varner, the third. Alex Noren, 80 to 1. And then Charlie Hoffman and Jason Day are 90 to 1. Of those, the guys who stand out to me are Gooch, Neiman, Tringalee, and Hoffman most. You mentioned McNeely was getting a lot of buzz before. He kind of fits the archetype you had discussed where if approach play matters a bit less, he may benefit because he's pretty good elsewhere. Any interest in him or no? Some, partially from the standpoint of decent bent grass splits, above average birdie rate. I don't quote me on this, but I'm pretty sure he's been on the. I know he's like friends. I'm pretty sure he's friends with the nilling up guys. And I'm pretty sure I heard him on a podcast, kind of know that his irons are lagging like that. And that's kind of what holds him back. So again, if that ends up being something that's relevant this week, that bumps up McNeely. But that being said, he's been pretty solid lately. So he might be a little bit more popular than I would like. But again, nothing really against him, especially for a salary of 8600. OK, fair enough. Let's move now to whether we're actually there's nothing to discuss. So why are we here? Not sure whether it's good to go. I can live in Las Vegas. I think that's the takeaway here. That's what I tell people when they try to make small talk with me about the weather. I'm like, there's nothing to discuss here. The the fallacy in this argument is you actually talking to people. And I think we know we both know that's not happening. So let's move now to our player picks here for week number. Oh, my goodness. We are not doing NFL. Wow, player picks in the CJ Cup at Summit Brand to take it away. Who are you talking to the top range? Yeah, I know how you feel because the amount of times I have to stop myself from saying golfer like this golfer on the NFL shows is like maddening. So I'm going to like Antonio Gibson fan graphs daily, daily. I got NBA coming back soon, too. So I'm going to I'm going to rebounds for Antonio Brown this week. Yeah. I'm going to start with Xander, which does mean that we're going to overlook someone that we both have some overlap on in our Venn diagram who's Jordan Spieth because I think he's both he's number two for both of us, if that's right. Correct. OK. So I still prefer Xander again. He doesn't he's been on record saying he doesn't really like low scoring events or high scoring events. I don't I never know what's like what people call that. I call like going low if you're around 20 under. But I did finish runner up at Shadow Creek last year, which again, same course architect was 18 under. You like that just couldn't best Jason Kockrack. They're like, again, with the birdie numbers, he's still above average for this field and birdie or better rate over the past 50 rounds, according to Fantasy National. It's the no cut event. So you can bump him up won the Olympics. And we know that he's long off the tee and that he puts well in bent grass. So the only nitpick for Xander is that he just has said he doesn't really prefer birdie fest. But that's about it. That was actually why I had more cow above him initially is because of that. So he's not a guy who tends to like. Feast in birdie fest. But I think that, like, you know, your adjustments to that are correct. I wasn't going to more cow here, but we hadn't talked really about speed and why we like him. I think we'd talk more about more cows. Let's speak here briefly as being my first top guy. Speeth is $11,600. So $200 or $100 more, more a cow. But he's the kind of guy you want to birdie fest ranks third in birdies or better gain the past 50 rounds. He's also third in bent grass, putting the past 100. And she mentioned the big greens, a lot of putting chances for Jordan. Speeth could make up some ground there. Obviously, the off the tee play is never great, but you'd rather have it be a distant zest than an accuracy contest for Speeth. You look at DataGolf's true stroke skein query ranks second there the past six months behind Justly Westaysen. So I think that for me, if more a cow attracts to be popular, it just sounds like is the case right now. I am very OK just pivoting to Jordan Speeth as my preferred guy up there. What are your thoughts on more a cow and speed? More a cow I'm fine with. It's just more of a factor that I like some other golfers a little bit better. So I'm not going to nitpick him with Speeth. We know he's amazing on bent grass. We know that he's great at making birdies. And I have a database running. Of PGA tour courses that they've played. It's up to I try to include just the ones that they play consistently, but I have 48 with acres of fairway data. So again, 48 and this this course this week ranks seventh. So should have wide fairways, which helps Jordan Speeth, who for the improvements he's made with his driver, still can kind of get lost a little bit. So I think for me, Speeth is the clear number two. And he was in consideration to go above Zander for me. OK, cool. Who else do you like in this upper range? I'm going to go with Tony Fino. I like your guy. I think a tinge more who you're about to talk about. But overall, no issues with Fino. He fits what I'm looking for this week. And this is going to sound really repetitive for me throughout the rest of my player picks, but I'm looking for guys who hit the ball far and can make birdies. And that is Tony Fino in summation. He has positive bent grass putting splits as well. The putting overall is on mostly an upward trend since the start of 2020 dipped back down a little bit like in June, but is trending back up. So we've seen the best putting from him. He made a lot of clutch putts at the Ryder Cup, which, again, said I'm not like looking at the Ryder Cup. But if it's Tony Fino making big putts, I'm going to include that in the process. Tony Fino coming up clutch. You love to see it put in the country on his back. So big fan, for sure. The guy you mentioned is maybe being slightly higher on his Victor Hovland. He's my second guy. Hovland, I think, has like decent odds leading the field in strokes game ball striking this week, which is kind of hard to turn down for 10-9. He is third in the field in strokes game off the tee, fourth in approach and sixth in birdies are better games. And the short game is very likely to be rough, but the birdie numbers show that he can overcome that and still go low. Hovland also sixth in true strokes game the past six months that accounts for the bad short game as well. So I have been on Hovland despite his flaws. Again, my ranking in this year is Hovland, Burns, Fina, our bet is Burns versus Fina. But I think all three of these guys are really good. And I would like to be in this range of decent. Yeah, this is going to be a key range for me where I kind of treat these guys as just a secondary stud. So I'm not trying to force myself to get back up to two of the superstars. Maybe it works out where I talk myself into a little bit more value and try to get back up to three. But in that case, it'd be like Xander, Spieth and one of these guys, but I don't even know what that would look like. But I just feel really good with all three of these guys overall. Again, for me with Burns, it's less to do with him and more to do with the assumption that he'll be the more popular of these guys. And I don't know if I'm quite there yet, where I'm going to put him over Tony Fina and Victor Hovland. If you use one guy in the high seven, if you use Johnny Vegas, sorry, I'll just if you use Johnny Vegas, you can get to three guys in this upper range without using anyone else below nine four. So that roster construction is pretty viable this week. And it's not a balanced approach, but it gets me access to similar things where I'm peppering guys with realistic win odds. So I think that's kind of the overall takeaway there is. I'm OK with that and trying to get to three here. Let's move to your the mid sorry range and talk about your favorite guy here. It's a guy you seem to like a lot because you slacked me about him, like before you sent the rundown for this week. Who is that? Cam Smith. All right. I got the extra flat brim for today. And in support of Cam Smith week, I'm just big into him for the week, which is usually a bad sign to just, you know, take that for what it's worth. But we've the field and birdie are better at getting over the past 50 rounds or tied for it, actually. Seventy second percentile and bentgrass putting. Again, I alluded to this. I'm trying to think where I look at a whole by whole breakdown to kind of see who benefits most from a course set up that way. And he's he beads from that perspective, which I like to see. And one of the issues with Smith is always that the irons are not particularly great. If I'm playing the angle when I am where iron play matters a little bit less this week because the larger the larger greens, then that all sets up well for Cam Smith to go low. So I have a feeling I can actually justify it statistically. So I'm just sticking with Cam Smith as an objective viewer of Cam Smith. I can see why you're there. The birdies really hard to turn down. So I have no pushback here. I think that I know it's based on like a gut feeling, but I think that it's justified even independent of that. So I'm on board for sure. The guy I like here is Abraham answer could be a distance course. And answer doesn't create out well there did bomb last week. But I don't want to abandon ship yet because despite the lack of distance, answer is still seventh in the field in truth area and stroking off the tee. He's 21st and approach 21st and birdies are better gains. He's a good bedgrass putter ranks 14th. They're the past 100 rounds. So I think this is potentially just like a thing where I think he's under salaried because like answer not a course fit and coming off a bad event, but I still think that 10,000 is too low for someone who has as many good qualities as he does. So Brandon, does that do those red flags scare you off of answer or do you agree that he's a bit under salary here? They scare me off enough. I'm not going to say he's over salaried or under salaried. I think it's reasonable, but given the course, the assumed course stats that matter for me this week doesn't have the distance. He's usually kind of a round field average with adjusted distance, which you can actually check out of course on data golf.com on their like player pages. You can go event by event and look and see if he's gaining fairways relative to the field which adjusts for the field expectation which is just awesome. So, but in terms of distance, it's usually just slightly negative. So expecting field average distance, which I think in this field would put him behind. So I'm probably just not going to get there myself. Do you have a head to head you'd want, not Cam Smith? I'd have to look here quickly. So answer 10,000. I would take, I don't really want to be, would you give me Scotty Schaeffler? No. Louie? What's that? Louie? Probably shouldn't give you Louie, but I will. Would you rather give me Cam Smith? No, I'd rather, I'd rather go Louie. Okay. Let's go Louie versus Anser. So I want some action on Anser. I think, I think I just want to be there. I think he's just a good golfer who's under salary. And so I'll go with that one. Louie versus Anser, our head to head bet. Who else do you like in this mid-range? I have Jason Cokerack. So be ready to be baptized and get back on to Cokerack. Historically, I need to be talked into Jason Cokerack. Hey, it's Cokerack at 94. That's the Jason Cokerack. That's the Coke zone, baby. Yeah. Defending champ of the event, but a different course. I think he's like a mini-final, where you play him whenever he needs to gain distance in birdies, which is just his general profile. He's been losing some strokes off the tee, which is a little bit concerning and probably is partially why you're not as high on him as I am. But if you look through, he's been losing fairways to the field, still gaining distance. So that's kind of what I want to see for this week. Miss the cut at the Shriners with great, or great to good, good to great approach play, poor potting, but I alluded to the, actually it's not really an illusion. I just mentioned the data golf player pages where you can go event by event. He's always gaining distance adjusted for the field. So you love to see that. So for me, I think process-wise, Cokerack's showing me pocket Kings, pocket Aces, pocket Queens, and I'm ready to go back to Cokerack in Vegas. Cokerack in Vegas, what could go wrong, except for everything. I think I listed Paul Casey first as the guy I liked above whoever it was we were talking about in this range, Leishman. I think Cokerack, you could very easily put above Casey. I think I'd still go Casey above Cokerack, but I think both are like at the top of that tier, correct? I have Casey above him, but you got to the sheet before me, so. Let's talk about Casey. I think that we're just gonna go in all the guys who missed the cut last week. Casey wasn't at least pretty close to making the cut. He gained 0.7 off the tee and 0.8 on approach. So less concerning of a missed cut than what answer had. Casey lost 0.4 on the green in 2.5 putting, but Casey's actually slightly positive as a bentgrass putter, so shouldn't necessarily expect the recent struggles to persist for him indefinitely. Casey, second in the field in the approach, 26th off the tee, 20th in birdies are better gained, $9,400, I think that he grades that really well. I would say he's a cash game play, Cokerack's a cash game consideration. I would say if I have just one guy here, it'd be Casey, but I might have to. So Casey over Cokerack for me, what are your thoughts on Paul Casey? Yeah, prefer him to Cokerack, also still considering Patrick Reed, where we can deemphasize some iron play maybe. And I don't think anyone will play Patrick Reed this week, but for Casey, the missed cut struggled at Shadow Creek as well, so I feel like he might get a little bit overlooked, but really good tee to green, 94th percentile over the past year with my adjustments and 81st percentile in birdie are better rate over the past 50 rounds, according to Fantasy National, so really easy case to make for Casey and just kind of overlooking what he did last week. Very heat-checky week to be in on Casey and Cokerack in the low 9,000s, but that's just too low for me. So let's move down to the value plays for this week, who you got at 9,000 or lower? These four all feel like heat check favorites as well, so. For better or for worse, walking Neiman 9,000, I think that's just too low of a salary. Neiman finished sixth at Shadow Creek last year. And again, I'll say it, should gain distance, should gain birdies on the field, which is what I want, 93rd percentile in distance. You know, very easy could be chalky-ish on Fandle because of the salary and the good win odds at 55 to one, but also as if he results lately, and the top 25 in his past four, so that also could just kind of leave him a little bit overlooked, and I don't want to do that for Neiman this week. I really like him at 9,000. Yeah, I think that Neiman grades out well on that tier, a guy I feel very good about. One guy you mentioned before in the odd section is Harold Varner III. I kind of like him at 87. He's been riding a hot putter recently, which is not something I want to bank on, but it's not like he's feasting just with the putter, so I'm fine here at 87. At the Sanderson Farms, Varner gained 2.4 in approach. It was his fifth time in the past six measured events, gaining at least that much with his irons. He gained 6.7 in approach to events before that stretch as well. The off the tee play has slipped a bit, but he's still at least treading water there, and we know he can do even better when things are clicking off the tee. Varner 17th in approach to past 50 rounds, 20th in bank grasp putting in the past 100 rounds, so I can embrace that at 87. Brandon, is the off the tee play concerning enough where you are off of Varner this week? It's partially that. It's partially the great putting that I'm seeing. Now, again, he's going to gain distance. He has a very clear path to gaining some birdies, but the putting is a bit too good for Harold Varner's baseline, which is typically when I want to cash out and be disengaged from that, but it's one of those spots where I'm not going to talk you out of him because the putting's been, it's not the only reason he's finishing well. Correct, that's why I'm there is because if you ignore the putting, I think that he's fine. Yeah, so again, I'm not going to talk you out of him, but personally, I'm not quite there as much as I am on some other golfers. Okay, who are some of those other golfers you like down here? Charlie Hoffman. I think he would qualify as a heat check favorite. For the past year or so, yeah. He's close. Since late March, at least? 8,200, it's a good salary. Yeah. And I mean, I'll say it once more, can hit a far, can make birdies. So that's what I'm looking for. Could lose some value because his irons are really great. And if that is a little bit of a de-emphasis this week, kind of would fall off from there, but I'm also not downgrading guys with good irons. It's more about discounting or like bumping up guys who's like irons are just kind of field average or a little bit lower. So for 8,200, I'm totally there. I also like Cam Davis at 8,100. Okay, so I am not actively seeking out a low salary guy because I agree with our overall thought process of, we still need guys who finish well in no-cut events and the super low salary guys can't typically do that. But I think that Jonathan Vegas at $7,800 is someone I can use despite not seeking that out. He can make birdies. So I think that's attractive. Vegas ranks 19th and birdies are better gain the past 50 rounds and that accounts for his rough putting. He gets there because he ranks fifth off the tee in 19th and approach. The primary downside with Vegas, so we haven't seen him in a month and a half. His last event was a BMW championship at the end of August, gained 1.7 in an approach there. So what's a decent showing, we don't know what the layoff has looked like for him, but for $7,800 I can dig it. If he's gonna be chalky, that would make me very nervous. I would still use him, but I'd probably try to be underweight if that would be the case because it's a very obvious path of failure given the bad putting. But in a vacuum, I like Vegas. Brandon, what are your thoughts on Johnny Vegas this week? I mean, I can't knock him if I'm looking for golfers who just hit it far and make birdies because that's what he does as well, but he's shaping up with a lot of tags on Fanshare already. So don't love to see that, but I think I would much prefer like Charlie Hoffman. Would you take a head-to-head there? No, I like Hoffman. What about $4? That's $4. Let me check. Bip, bip, bip, bip, bip, bip, bip, bip, bip, bip, bip. No, it's like from a median expectation perspective, Davis is probably better because of the putting. Okay. So I don't think that's the right format for Vegas for me. So. Okay, I mean, it's not like Cam Davis is the pinnacle of consistency, but. Yeah, but like still neither is Vegas. So I'll finish up here with our win picks based on the odds over at FanDuel.com. I know one of mine trying to figure out the second one. Do you want to go first or should I just tell you who my first person is? You can tell me, I'm probably not going to go with long shots this week just because it's a no-cut event and it's strong at the top. That's just not historically who wins these things. I want speed. I could see that. I would have considered him. Yeah, I think 20 to one is long enough to get me in there. So I'm going to speed with my first one. I'm absolutely going Camp Smith 34. Okay. And I'm a little bit nervous about missing out on the top few, but I'll go 20 for you now at 30 as well. Yeah. I think that works. So like I would have liked Moira Kawa had we talked about him when he was at 17 or 16. 14 is enough of a movement where I'm okay not being as high there. Looking for other guys. Boy. Go answer. You love them. Well, he's going to win. Justin Rose. No, he's 70 to one. This is tough. Like Casey at 50 I'd have taken, but he's 41 now. Yeah. It's kind of a rough number. It is. Right. We're doing it. We're doing the coke rack. After all that, that's where you end. It's the number. He's 48. Well, yeah. I mean, Fina at 30 is probably a better number. So I feel bad about that, but I'll go with a coke rack at 48 to one in speed at 20. You know, you can take Fina out as well. I know, but it's not fun. You have Cam's. Fina and Cam Smith. Cam Smith and Fina. I got a lot of fun guys. You get the guys out. I was going to say, I got a lot of fun on that team. Yeah. That's upsetting. But at least I won't be mad if you win. George, speed, the coke rack are fun. That's very true. You're right. Okay. We're just taking the fun guys this week. I think that's the big takeaway, Brandon. Use the fun golfers. What else would he need? Why'd we spend 55 minutes talking about that? We could have just said, use the fun guys. Oh, well, in that case, put me down for Harry Higgs at plus 320. I don't think you should. I mean, you can. I'm not going to object to me when I change your pick to that. No, but I mean, if that was the quotient, then we should have just mentioned him, but. All right. That is all that we have here for the CJ cup at Summit. Brandon, any final thoughts for you before we send the good people off to fill out their lineups? As always in no cut events, don't get careless. We'll have golfers who effectively miss the cut by finishing really, really low down the standing. So don't get overboard with the value. And it can implode. So just be aware of that for sure. That is all that we have here for today. Of course, we'll be back next week for more PGA talk, but also in the interim, we have NFL week five, pre-cap week six preview coming up on Thursday, 10 a.m. on the fatal YouTube page and up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed after that, NHL back with Tom Vecchio, USC, the Austin Swain. I've got NASCAR this week as well, NBA just around the corner. So a lot of good stuff here on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed. Make sure you are subscribed and leave us a rating interview if you like what you hear. Brandon, people have questions for you on Twitter. Where can they find you there? I'm at Goodwill 13 GD, ULA 13. And I'm at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the Fandall podcast network at Fandall podcast. Big thank you to everyone for tuning in for this week. Good luck to you with your lineups to the CJ cup. We'll talk to you once again next week. This has been the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire.