 Wild Card Weekend is finally here, and with it comes a variety of very fun daily fantasy football slates to play over on Fanduel.com, the two-game Saturday slade, three-game around Sunday, got the single-game slade Monday, and of course various iterations across all of those. Well, we're going to break down most of those various slates today, going game by game, breaking down our thoughts on that from a DFS perspective and letting you know which players we think you should build around for this week. This is the Heat Check Fantasy Podcast right here on the Fanduel Podcast Network in Fanduel Research. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a managing editor of digital media for Fanduel Research, joined here, as always, by Brandon Gadoula. Check him out on Twitter at Gadoula13. He is a senior managing editor for Fanduel Research, and Brandon, the playoffs are here. How are you doing today? Good. I'd be doing better, though, if you listed out every slate and every iteration of, like, what was... Saturday is Monday. Sunday to Monday. Single-game for Texans vs. Browns. Single-game for Chiefs vs. Dolphins. No love for the Sunday Night Football Monday Night Football slate, man. I like that during the season. I don't know if I'll get there this week. I would like to, but we'll see. Hey, you can make it happen. I believe in you. Just like on the golf show this week when we talked about getting everyone listening to believe in themselves, I believe in you, Jim. But should you? That's the better question. And hopefully we'll give you the insights you need to do all those individual slates the way that you want to. We're going to go game by game, break down our thoughts on all six of these games across Wildcard. We can let you know our thoughts on them from a matchup perspective and which players we think may be undervalued in the DFS marketplace right now. But first, a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy Podcast, wherever you get your podcasts. Brandon alluded to our betting or our PGA podcast that is now a hybrid betting and the Daily Fantasy show. So if you are a golf better, we're going to be talking about favorite bets each week on Tuesday on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy Podcast. And along with still discussing our favorite DFS plays over on FanDuel as well. That's every Tuesday afternoon on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy Podcast. And now also on FanDuel TV Plus as well. We of course, love the daily ISO at Tavecchio heat check for USC with Austin Swame all right here in the same feed. And of course, the NFL show does continue through the Super Bowl here on Thursdays 10 a.m. Eastern live on the FanDuel YouTube page and up on the DFS feed. And of course, FanDuel TV Plus after the fact. If you like what you hear, give us a thumbs up on YouTube or a five star rating on Apple podcasts or over on Spotify. When it comes to the NFL playoffs, you've got one game to win at a time. But if you bet though, I can't read. 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Over the FanDuel.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, Virginia and Vermont. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXT-STEP to 533-42 in Arizona. Forgot to say, shout out Vermont. Hello. 1-888-789-7777. Over the CC PG.org slash Chad, Connecticut, 1-800-9 within Indiana. 1-800-522-4700 for the KS Gambling Health.com in Kansas. 1-877-770 stop in Louisiana. Visit MD Gambling Health at Oregon, Maryland. 1-800-gambler.net in West Virginia and call 1-800-522-4700 in Wyoming. Now, we're going to go, as mentioned, game by game, breaking down our thoughts on the various games across this week over at FanDuel Sportsbook and on FanDuel.com. Let's begin things by talking about the first game on Saturday. That is the Browns at the Texans right now at FanDuel Sportsbook. The Browns are 2 and a half point favorites. Total in this game is 44 and a half. Key interest to note in this game, but Murray Cooper didn't practice Tuesday or Wednesday. He missed the pass to gains the heel injury that was labeled as both due to his heel and due to rest. He said he'll be good to go. And I think that Cooper will be here. Cream Hunt, sideline Tuesday, but then limited Wednesday hasn't practiced a lot recently. So he'll be good to go. Cedric Tillman didn't practice Tuesday or Wednesday. He is in concussion protocol. And then Noah Brown and Robert Woods both missed week 18. Neither practice Tuesday. Woods got back to a limited session on Wednesday. Brown was still out. So looking like Noah Brown will not be back this week while Robert Woods may be Brandon. Let's begin with your overall thoughts on this game. Browns at Texans. What's your overview here of this matchup? I'm actually going to kick it back to you like quickly because I want to hear your thoughts on something because like Jim's got. What multiple models now your new and your old model you blend them together. I have like my own model, but I don't do as much with it. I'm more like player proper oriented. I want to come to the NFL, but the total for this game in my model is really low and I'm worried that I'm missing something. What do you have it at? Like 38. Okay. I have 41.1. So we're both under. Yeah. And I said on Tuesday or Monday when I did the first look at the slate, like one, if it gets to, because it's 43 and a half at the time. It said if it gets to 44 and a half, then I would be okay taking the under because 44 is a pretty key number. So I think the under is very much to play here right now. Okay. So that makes me feel better. And it's not to say that there's nothing to like in this game because there obviously is. If you look at the Browns with Joe Flacco, there's a lot to like their pass rate over expectation on pass and run plays has been plus 5%. It gets a top three number in that specific split. But basically just one of the higher marks in the league and they've been running a lot of plays and that's helped with a lot of the raw stats. I mean, Flacco is averaging just under 44 attempts per game over 325 yards per game, a lot of touchdowns. But when you do adjust his performance to the opponent level, he is underperforming in terms of EPA per dropback kind of substantially. I don't want to say it's like, hey, this is a clear place to die best, especially on this two games late because this game is indoors. This is a, you know, middling ish to weak past the offense. So like I see a path two points with such a weird sense. CJ Stroud and Joe Flacco kind of putting up good games against each other. But overall, yeah, I'm kind of like we've talked in the past about Cleveland's defense on the road. And I think they finished with like the highest points per game allowed on the road is like really strange. But my, my model with sort of like looks at adjusted success rates, EPA, all that kind of stuff. It said that they're basically slightly better than average road defense. I think that's kind of fluky. I think that's probably factored down a little bit to the, to the total. So it sounds like we're kind of in general consensus with not loving the over here. Right. But what else are you seeing from the Browns here? Well, I think if we're talking about this in the context of the two games late, I also like the under now for Chiefs Dolphins because the wind went up to 14 miles per hour. I actually have these totals very close 41.1 for this one 41.9 for Dolphins Chiefs. So in the context of the two games late, if I've got a similar total, I don't want to like double count, but give me the dome. So I'm okay kind of look in this direction a bit looking at that Browns defense you alluded to on the road. If there's no adjustment for matchups, there are 0.07 passing that expected points per dropback allowed as a defense on the road. And that's league average. But again, you're making adjustments, which is the better way to go. So they have not been as lethal on the road. Now, they played pretty well the first time they face it's the Texans, but that game was one of the game CJ Stroud missed with his concussion. So it makes a lot of sense they would play well in that game. So I'm fine just tossing that out entirely. Now going back to flakko as you mentioned 0.05 passing that expected points per dropback for flakko unadjusted for opponent. That's a dip below average as you alluded to. So I think we'll see some regression as far as efficiency like they just I don't think they'll keep scoring as many points as they have is what I'm trying to say there. So if we look at this in terms of the two game slate, I was hoping this would be a spot where I could be like, okay, people are going to flock to a Mario Cooper coming off a massive game against this very same team. And I thought maybe I can like divest the problem is his salary is too low. It's $7,500 on Fandwall for this week in the games that Cooper has been full with flakko. He has a 29% target share with 58% of the deep work, which is five deep targets per game and a 29% red zone target share given in joku 24% of the overall targets with 29% of the red zone as well. So both these guys have had phenomenal workloads when they've had flakko. And like the issue is that in joku salary is high at 7000 whereas Cooper is still at 75. So I think even though it's like the most obvious route here I'm going to wind up being on Cooper quite a bit still, even though I know everyone else will be as well given what he did against this defense. Yeah, and look you can't overthink it he's indoors the salaries right from flakko he's been targeted on 29.2% of his routes, like wide receiver average is a shade under 20%. Once you get around 30%, you're kind of in the elite tier. That's going to continue the opportunities and whenever you're talking about a two game slate, it's hard to ignore volume. And I don't understand how this game finishes with the season on the line where Amari Cooper is just he draws like three targets. I don't anticipate that. So I think Cooper very much a standout play on the board but I mean David and joku 27% target per out rate. That's that's phenomenal for a tight end. He's got 44% and end zone targets there. They're a small sample but 44% of them. It seems like you know I have some plays burned in my memory already of flakko just looking for in joku it seems like and there's that one he threw it to him in the back of the end zone with the defender not looking. Yeah, that is in the back of my mind. 7,000 for a tight end on a two game slate when you know typically when there's fewer and fewer games values harder and harder to find. There's there definitely is upside but it also kind of just depends on how you view this offense you mentioned that that you think Cleveland will start scoring fewer points. Joe flakko has already had about 4.7 more touchdowns than he should based on the underlying data. In a very small sample like the volume is usually there and again volumes hard to ignore not not for quarterback specifically need efficiency and touchdowns from quarterbacks. But the volume helps if you can get to 300 plus yards but more for the past catcher so it's hard to look at either Cooper or in joku and say no I'm not really there. And joku naturally the salaries a bit elevated but do you have any interest in other past catchers here. I'm not in the Browns. Like Cedric Tillman's banged up which could get some more work for a large more but like that that concussion was really scary that he had in weeks 17 I can't get that out of my mind I know he played a bit last week but like it's like, I don't know I'm unsettled by that still. So like I don't really want to personally I know that like I'll need to find value somewhere but like I just like even in the games that he's played full with a Mari Cooper being full and flakko being full. It's a 10% target share Tillman actually has more targets and Elijah Moore in that time 19% deep target share for Elijah Moore with 12% in the red zone. So, like, I guess I'll probably have to at some. This is, I'm not in the wrong right. Let's go back over here. I guess I'll probably have to get to Elijah more at some point but like I, I don't know. I'm just, I'm wary. Yeah, I mean he's got a almost a minus 15% catch rate over expectation from flakko a lot of that came in that that first game where he got he at the time at least had set the the single season high for air yards. Right. And that was again the Cooper left early. Yeah, he had some sort of injury against the Rams. Yeah. So I see the case for it but again we're we're going to need to find value and not just on the two games late but as we look at maybe the six games late which is not in our primary focus but I'm here playing multi day slates or something. I think you could do worse than more. And again it goes back to how high you are on flakko how much you think this offensive success continues. The thing I can find like kind of say in defense of the Browns here. They are throwing the ball a lot their pass rate over expectation is high. Houston's not a great defense or 28th and a dot allowed average depth of target 29th and yards per target allowed on passes traveling at least 10 yards downfield there's a clear path to production here. But if the other game on this slate, which is weird to say based on the teams if like there, there wasn't like the weather concerns. It would be easier to kind of be down on flakko but my final question to you for rank them rank these four quarterbacks for me do it now let's just let's just rip the bandaid off do it. It's the worst part of this slate that I can't figure out the most. Yeah, I don't really have a strong like inclination it's it's kind of incredible to say that based on the names there. I'm kind of leaning. I think I would go. Stroud one. Okay, I was gonna ask you if that was dumb because that's what I thought too. Like it's a really good defense even when they're on the road like they're still good. And like a lot of you mentioned the points per game total some of that was like flukeiness like that cold scheme I think there were some like defensive touchdowns and special teams touchdowns there was a lot of like weird junk that went down in those games. So like, I respect the Browns defense I have like I have the same numbers you do that show how good they are but like also it's a very good quarterback who is indoors at home and is not dealing with weather that's double counting the weather but like, I think it's for me it's between Stroud and my homes at one. I think that all three of these guys are in the same tier though including flakko. Do you agree with that assessment. Yeah, I think two is the outlier there and in the negative sense, even at the salary. I think there's a lot of concerns about like a team going into these conditions as well. That seems also or two in particular has had a lot of like he just had a lack of upside and they've got, you know, we'll get there but seems like both running backs will be good to go. I agree. They will be fine to run the ball plenty. So I'm just lowest on two but yes, it is wild that flakko is in the tier with Stroud and my homes. Right. I also could probably be talked into maybe more flakko lineups than my homes due to the conditions. Sure. That's right. But and it's also weirdly kind of easy just as easy to stack flakko he's got a top receiver and a top tight end but Yeah, I'm going Stroud. I'm going Stroud number one. If you kind of try to pinpoint like he's going to have a lack of targets or at least a lack of healthy targets. But I'm going to say it. I think like Nico Collins is just a true like wide receiver one level. I think that that is sure he doesn't have tank though. Noah Brown's up in the air but Nico is like that guy and that's helpful. And honestly, he's got Dalton Schultz. Like I think there's enough here to like Stroud. And what I also kind of saw from Stroud last week is now that everything's on the line, hope pull it and run it. I mentioned you on Slack. It kind of reminds me of like Patrick Mahomes coincidentally on the same slate here but Reminds you of Stroud in college too where that Georgia game you decided like, hey, Jalen Carter is chasing me down. Maybe I should run. And like that's like I was worried about that too. So it's good you brought that up because like post concussion I was like or concussions kind of seemed like he had to. I was worried that he wouldn't but he did 3 for 20 in that Colts game. So yeah. Yeah, I will just point out we're talking Brown's defense. They do have a top 10 ADOT allowed. So they kind of mitigate down for passing. Stroud's had just two games against teams who were top 10 and ADOT under five yards per attempt. Poor EPA metrics but. Which games were those? Those would be. Was the Jets game in there? I think so. Yeah. Because that was bad brother. He got hurt. Yeah. So it was a small sample there even within a small sample. Yes, yes. But that's I'm trying to find reasons not to have Stroud number one. I don't think that's enough. Yeah. Indoor's versus a game that is going to be some of the worst conditions we'll have all year. I'm I have a hard time not putting CJ Stroud number one. Dual narratives working in favor of Nico Collins this week. First one is Michigan national champions. Therefore he benefits to get to boost the national champion and boost for Nico Collins. Also a Michigan man playing against the state of Ohio. Just saying. Just saying dual narratives in favor of Nico Collins for this week. Collins hour 83 is fine given his upside. I would say if I were playing like a cash game on the two games slate, I'd prefer Cooper. But like, I don't know how we're going to find three receivers here honestly. I guess in this game. So I'd be okay at both but I prefer Cooper if it's a cash game. Dalton Schultz I think is my favorite tight end across the two games slate. $5,900 for a guy who's been getting really good volume. And I feel good about that personally with Dalton Schultz in this game. In the two games with Stroud back where they've had no tank Dell Schultz has a 19% target share he's been getting some deep work throughout this year. I think people will gravitate towards Collins coming up the huge game. I know that a lot of people on Schultz betting stuff for his incentives last week for some reason despite the fact they were in a must win game and they're not going to care about his stupid money. Maybe people are tilted off of that. So I think that Schultz 59 is my favorite tight end. Do like Collins though, 803 as well just because the upside is so good. I want to talk to you about running backs in this game because I am not really in on the Browns guys drove forward seven thousands in the games he's played with Flacco has definitely not had like the best role by any means 11.2 carries 61.8 targets per game 61.8 yards. That's like not really into that the Texans rush defense is pretty good. But Devin Singletary check said at $6400 16.7 carries per game as the teams lead back 86.6 yards per game. That's a 10 game sample. It's pretty large sample. Is it egregious to say that Devin Singletary is my second favorite play across the entire two games late? Probably not. Whenever you get assemblances of salary savings on a small slate that gets boosted up a ton. If you were saying that I think Singletary is the best play over all six games or something I'd find fault with that. But it's it's it's all Sunday if it's if it's the six games late. Yeah. But no we've talked a lot about Singletary this season. The role is there. I don't really see myself even even in CJ Stroud lineups. I'm going to have to play Singletary for sure. He's getting a target. I'm there. Yeah. What about you at the Browns back? So am I being too dismissive of Jerome Ford here? Not necessarily dismissive. Like if I have one lineup I can tell you right now he won't be in it. Like that's where I'm at. That's salary. Yeah. Yeah. As someone who I know nobody cares about your season long teams. I was early on adding him thankfully. But I never even like started him because I never saw enough in the workload and now this team's past heavy and his huge game came with multiple receiving touchdowns. I think he's talented but he's just not a focal point here. The obvious case in his favor is if this is the better game and he is marginally involved the salaries reasonable. Right. He's got some touchdown equity but yeah I overall I'm not there by default. So I'm glad you're kind of there as well. Yeah. I think a big part of it is the red zone share and the games with Flacco he has a 20% red zone share versus Cream Hunt at 27%. He's going to lose out on work to Hunt which is annoying as well. Any final thoughts for you on this game before we talk about some Chiefs Dolphin stuff. I was just trying to look up Cleveland's been pretty fairly past heavy I guess with Flacco and the red zone but not overly so. But yeah. Yeah. And I think we're good. Let's move on. Okay. Let's talk now about the second game on the Saturday slate. That is the Dolphins at the Chiefs right now. Fandals sportsbook. The Chiefs are four and a half point favorites total in this game is 44 and a half already alluded to the fact that I like the under here because the wind speeds are up to 14 miles per hour for Saturday night. I care more about that than the temperature. Temperature I guess could matter but it's more about the wind for me 14 miles per hour is a pretty big downgrade when the other game is indoors. Now again the total is still higher in this one after counting for weather for me but it's not as thrilling as it may seem at first thought. Both were mostly in jail and water returned to limited practices for the Dolphins Tuesday. They should be in line to return this week both limited again Wednesday. She's pretty healthy both starting tackles likely back for this game as well. So overall thoughts for you on Chiefs at Dolphins Brandon. Don't love the weather. Don't love the Dolphins in cold weather necessarily. That's the kind of thing that sometimes probably gets a little overplayed but I have enough reasons to sort of be down on Miami in the first place so I will am more likely to talk myself into it. But yeah if in the scope of the whole weekend don't necessarily love this game which is again really strange knowing these two teams I don't think that this is a situation where I'm saying oh this this game is not going to score more than 30 points total. I can see this game erupting. I can see this game playing somewhere in between. I think it's really all over the place. But I think what I want to ask you is as the narrative King. What do we do with Tyree kill. Oh yeah. Tyree kill revenge game here taking on the Chiefs. Hill his salary on Fandall is at $9400 which is pretty decent honestly relative to where it has been. It's a slate where receiver is not great either so that's not bad. I think the problem is wind speed. He does get a lot of short targets which is I think beneficial in this situation. 29% target share in the games he's played with Waddle since their bye week. I chose that sample because Waddle was banged up early on this year so wanted to get a more healthy look at him although he's not healthy now. But in that time 29% target share for Hill 57% of the deep work and 39% inside the red zone are amazing target shares. So in a vacuum I'm into it. The problem is I know I want to get to Cooper at 75. I like Nico at 83 who also has like legit legit upside and I'm wary of the wind speed in this game. So if we're talking I get one lineup for the Saturday Slates. I think the odds Hill is in it are not super high right now. If you give me three three like a three entry thing I'm probably going to weasel him into one. But I think that's where I'm at right now. Are you divergent for me on that? No pretty much the same as I build out lineups here for the two game slate. It's hard to sort of build around him whenever Tua is my fourth ranked quarterback. The salary allocation like the salary sort of offsets a little bit with Tua so like that's a bit helpful. I will say the Chiefs have sort of just taken other teams like a taste of their own medicine and they're like top 12 and eight out allowed. Pretty good against the downfield pass seems like it's like hey you're going to do it to us we'll do it to you. I think for a lot of reasons the probability of a lot of downfield targets for Hill just goes down and that's kind of what you are banking on. Now you can also take anything to the house I get that but I'm struggling to like sit here and say that I'm going to prioritize him over a pretty like solid running back slate where you have guys with workloads. So I mentioned before that Devin Singletary is my number two guy in the entire slate. Number one is no surprise to you Isaiah Pacheco. Pacheco's salary in the slate $8,000 no jerk McKinnon obviously for this game in the games Pacheco's played without McKinnon it's a three game sample. 59% red zone share for Isaiah Pacheco. 17 carries and 5.3 targets per game. If you look at adjust opportunities per game which is carries plus 2x target and each guy's most relevant sample on this slate Pacheco is 5.2 per game above everybody else. His yards and scrimmage is almost 40 clear of the field. So is it I'm like I think he's 100% going to go to the club this week for me personally. The Dolphins are a good defense but they're also a Vic Fangio defense. Fangio defense is smartly prioritized stopping the pass or stopping the rush. Dolphins defense ranks 10th against the pass 16th against the rush. They've lost pass rushers but like that also hurts them against the run as well because like those guys feasibly can play the run too. So I think Pacheco is going to be borderline 100% for me this week. I might go Pacheco Singletary every lineup and then mix it up from there personally. I think that's where I'm leaning. I think Pacheco is also a really good he's the best play for the six game slate from this slate. I think this Sunday running backs are really good but like I love Pacheco. Am I too high on him? No I think you could have basically just said that in week 17 he played 92. 92.5% of the snaps. That's a rate that you know I could probably try to do this quickly but there have been minimal games where running backs have played 90% of the snaps this season. It's just not something we see anymore. Okay cool. With that work it's clear that this team just believes in Pacheco. They want to have the ball in his hands now like if McKinnon were here I'd probably still worry but without him it's like it's evident that he's their guy and they're going to get him involved in various ways and he's also getting he's running routes and he's getting targets. I don't know how you look at that and just sort of downplay it at all and again it's scoring could be down here but if conditions are tough if wind is up it's just more reason to think that he'll get carries he'll get short targets. Pacheco is the best play on the slate. Pacheco is 92.5% snap rate week 17 the 13th highest mark this year most of the guys above him are Kairan, Willian, Christian, McCaffrey. Then there's also two of Zach Moss, one Saquan Barkley and one Zeke because of course in 2023. So I think Pacheco is like just the best play. Yeah it's rarefied air I'm not saying he'll definitely play 90% of the snaps this week but I would not be surprised. CH was out for that game because he had an illness but like also like with how effective they were in that game I think you just write Pacheco. Yeah I would be surprised if they just scale him back a ton he's also just good so yeah I'm in on Pacheco he is my favorite I think just my overall favorite play to the point that like you said you know if I'm building under 10 lineups or something I'll just have them in all of them if I'm like going you know bigger than that I'm not gonna lock them into everything but my process is there for Pacheco. Let's talk about the Dolphins back let's assume where he most of plays given the two limited practices sounds like he was kind of close to playing the previous two games as well most of Salaries 82 and Devon H-Hand is 74 I think from a like strict process perspective if we're talking like volume versus salary I can't get to either however I can see the path to either guy being legitimately good given that I see a lot of runs in this game the Chiefs do struggle against the Russ they were like 26 there based on number fire schedule adjusted metrics and teams do run against them at a decent clip relative to expectation based on how good they've been so far this year so I think most are in H-Hand fine for tournaments but like I would say Pacheco and Singletary are great for tournaments so like they're fine versus great how do you handle those two guys on your end? Yeah so basically what we'll talk about a lot throughout the show and throughout the rest of the playoffs because there's going to be better process plays like obviously better process plays than other guys but you got to tell yourself a story of how this game plays out if you think that Miami just has a like I would not be surprised if there's a situation where both of these guys make the perfect lineup on the two game slate because they just run the ball over and over and over again and they score touchdowns like that's very feasible but as a default process yeah I'm looking at Pacheco I'm looking at Singletary my question to you then is we're not really there with Ford or Hunt you know we're on the fence about these two two game slate what are your odds of flexing or running back? like in your main line 30% because that basically means you're playing one of these guys unless you just get to Ford yeah well I'd probably just play one of these guys I think it's about 30% most likely yeah let's talk about the pass catchers here on the Chief side and also Jalen Waddle we did talk about Tyreek Hill earlier on where she writes the salary for this slate it's $7800 Waddle is 68 coming off that injury but then it jumps all the way down to Justin Watson 52 some other guys worth noting I think Nikola Harbin's salary is 49 Marquez is out there scaling 48 we're going to slide past Cadarius Tony and the Richie James is $4400 what's your view of the non Tyreek pass catchers here in this game? I would say should I start with Waddle then? sure I'll start with Waddle because we just we're going to Tyreek it's been hard to figure him out this year I don't have the data I mean I do have the data I don't have the data pulled up it feels like he drops a lot of passes and that kind of kills things as someone who's had a lot of interest in him for various reasons and you don't expect it for someone of his caliber so I'm sorry if the drop rate does not apply I think it's more the costly drops or just that Miami's on red zone a lot so you see the drops more but this seems hard to figure out like week by week samples just because of players being in or out or players playing limited snaps but if you just kind of grab games where they're big four skill players have played at least 20% of the snaps I'm not going to look at per game numbers but per route numbers like Waddle still at 2.15 yards per route run which is a good number 28.7% target per route rates like when he's been on the field and they've had these guys largely active it's not a question of whether he's going to get targets I think I need to be higher on Jalen Waddle is what I'm basically getting to where the salaries down the production can definitely be there but it's not always there we've had you know volatility is a tricky thing with daily fantasy but volatility with positive outcomes clearly attainable it's interesting for the salary I think Waddle if I'm building one lineup for this two game slate it's going to be hard to overlook him because the salary works out so well any interest in Waddle I want to get a read on sentiment because I do worry about players coming off of legitimate injuries and Waddle is doing that but like if I know coming back to this full by Thursday if we get that arrows up at 68 like I'm in if we don't get a full practice Thursday which honestly I'm betting against full practice Thursday that's a bit tougher sell but like Waddle after the buy with Tyreek 26% target share 22% deep so not a lot of deep work but that also means they're getting underneath targets which is good given the weather in this game so I would love him at 68 if we get a full practice Thursday I'm just not expecting that to happen I'll still like him if we don't but it's harder to get as enthusiastic here so if he's out or limited and you're not totally there any other Dolphins pass catchers then or does that bump up like Devon Asian and you think he gets more targets I think it just bumps down the offense Rishi Rice's salary is $7,800 Travis Kelsey at tight end is at 72 looking at the games they've played since the buy week excluding week 18 Rishi Rice actually leads the 25% target share Kelsey's at 20% not a lot of deep work for Rishi Rice but also it just seems like that's part of the the trade off here like it'll be Justin Watson and Marquess Valdez Scanlan getting downfield targets and like I worry a bit about the upside of the Rice at 78 given that he's not going to get a lot of downfield work but like he's been productive you know he's tied to Patrick Mahomes we like both those things so I think this is this is part of why I prefer Mari Cooper at 75 I prefer Nico Collins I want the deep work inside but like it's hard to like talk down too much of Rishi Rice so like single line up while I get there and I think this is pushing me further towards Stroud honestly I don't think I will I like him but I don't love him what about you with Rice and then talk to me about Kelsey too yeah same thing more of a like than a love prefer Cooper prefer Nico there's like a volume based sort of upside for Rice in a sense especially if the wind is up he you know I wouldn't be surprised if he replicates that like 12, 9, 10 target kind of stretch that he's had there that you have pulled up but yeah overall one line up not getting there it's more of a who's my quarterback if it's Mahomes obviously I'm going Rice if it's not it's probably going to be Stroud or Flacco that gives me more so I'm more likely to have Cooper and Nico instead of Rice anyway but that's like you said it's not to talk down of Rice but I think he is kind of at sort of at a salary peak in this sense for all this context for right now at least yeah I agree yeah Kelsey boy I don't know what to do I think I just have some FOMO line ups of Kelsey when I stack when I play Mahomes he's you know if you look at games since the buy with Mahomes Kelsey Rice and Pacheco I've met a 19% target share it's only 6.4 per game 19.5% target per route rate he just doesn't look healthy that's why I'm glad they rested in last week it's like that doesn't hurt my view of him I still prefer Schultz over him but like you know I'm receptive to the idea of him as a result of the fact they sat him if you're spending up Kelsey versus in Joku I can't believe that's a question that's a good question Kelsey is new for Touchdown Regression and it wasn't that long ago that he was getting 83, 81, 91 yards yeah I think game theory wise because I like Cooper so much and you're gonna have to stack multiple guys on the same team I think game theory wise I'm probably going Cooper and Kelsey like I'm much more likely to do Cooper and Kelsey than in Joku and Rishi Rice would you consider the same line up because they're only $100 off in salary that 2v2 duping it making it in Joku plus Rice I think that would work I think yeah but I would lean Rishi and Cooper I think so too I would as well okay let's talk about the shout out Richie Bar-Ancillary-Jabronis on the Chiefs Miko Harbin 49 Mark Wezveld at Scantlin 48 Justin Watson 52 Deep Bald's gonna be hard to come by I think that actually gives me some interest in Miko Harbin they got him pretty involved last week when he came off of IR it's a leap of faith with any of these guys like I think Watson's role will be the best in terms of snap rate and like he does get deep work in the games since they're by Excluding Week 18 33% deep target share 11% overall whereas MVS is at a 7% target share 21% deep I don't know man there's not a word and that's why that's why any semblance of value for someone like Devon Singletary is such a long way because you're not gonna find a lot of great plays now I will say if you're playing Mahomes and you wanna go Kelsey or Rice with another one of these names down here in case there's a touchdown combo sure I don't really have a strong inclination based on the route rates they're all like relatively okay but nothing phenomenal and I don't love this game a ton that's why someone like you know if Waddle's good to go it's gonna be hard to ignore that salary because again it's a semblance of salary savings I just yeah I'm just building a lineup here it's got my attention but it's got 5,500 left for one slot and it's like you know it's not even a star start oh no I can't give you five Texans wow five Texans against the best defensive football it's gonna be a lineup Jim you moron so you yeah I mean you'd probably have to bump off of I'd probably bump off of Schultz and go down to like it's gonna be really hard to flex to it's gonna be really hard to flex to two running backs also I'm just gonna throw out this name I know you don't like them much but Cedric Wilson it's 5,000 I know I just don't know okay you can do that that's fine any final thoughts for you on this slate or should we move on to the Sunday slate I covered it pretty well a lot of ways to go and that's fun let's talk about some more weather then we move on to Sunday and talk about the Steelers at the Bills right now at Fandall Sportsbook Bills are 10 point favorites and the total of this game is 36 and a half that is actually up a tick from where it was on Monday because I guess we got some buyback in the over over is still just modest 105 I like the over in this game honestly I think there's been a bit of an overreaction to weather wind speeds here 22 miles per hour potentially snow and buffalo I get it but I think that's gone a bit too far personally Injury snow here, TJ Watt will not play in this game for the Steelers due to the knee injury he suffered in week 18 Najee Harris didn't practice with a knee injury Wednesday but that's been his typical regimen recently so gave Davis now practice due to the knee injury he suffered in week 18 though there is still a chance he's able to go in this one's overall view of Steelers vs Bills I think the context here is this total is 36 and a half other totals on Sunday are 50 and a half and 51 and a half so overall thoughts for you on this game yeah you can easily make a case that this is the differentiation game of the week based on how it stacks up against and you know the three game slates a big slate so that's going to get a little bit more of our attention here but my main fear with this game is slightly weather but weather combined with how run heavy these teams have been in relevant splits here the Steelers with Mason Rudolph have a pass rate over expectation of minus 11.8 points that's pretty clearly the lowest in football in that split the Falcons finished the year at minus 9.7% and they were the only team on the full season below 6.5% this team has basically been able to run the ball and once to run the ball milk the clock take plays away from the other team there's not many more teams you need to do that from compared to the Bills and that's led to a lot of opportunities for Nachy Harris on a personal at basis it's wild but before we get into the player level stuff the Bills since their offensive coordinator transition minus 4.6% pass rate over expectation still running a lot of plays but they've been really run heavy I think this game could just sort of the clock might never stop and so it's a lot of reasons to like the under I know you like the over but is this like a way over or just an over because there's a difference between an over and like a shootout so I like the over but even with that I still have the total in this game like 6 points lower than the other two games so like it's not going to matter for DFS it's just a betting take because I think the over is the way to play things here because I agree with you I think that they will see both teams be pretty run heavy I think they'll be successful in doing so honestly given how well the Steelers have run the ball since their bi-week same thing has happened last year like they ran the ball well out after their bi-week same thing this year both with Naji and Jalen Warren and then same thing on the opposing side so I think it will be pretty run heavy I like I think that like if I could have my like ideal world I'd love to be contrarian and go Josh Allen on this late Sauer for Josh Allen is $9,000 it'd be awesome if you could do that what you can do it you can do it everyone no I can't I want to get you said it and I I want to get these guys in an ideal work you can as long as it fits in that salary cap and you don't have more than four that's the issue it's not going to fit like ideal world like galaxy brain pivoted Josh Allen before he rushes for three touchdowns it'd be awesome but like lot of salary to allocate for a game such a low total so will I get Josh Allen in lineups yeah for of course will he be into like a single lineup I have for Sunday like if I have one nah probably not but I do see the case for him more than anything else as far as this game goes let's talk about this vaccine in the context of the three games like James Cook salary at $7100 we got Najee Harris at 65 Jill and Warren at 56 I think all three in play honestly I don't think I'll need to get down to Warren at 56 given I've got Aaron Jones 7000 I think that Najee's a pro you play at 65 but also Warren does have in the 12 games since their buy 72 yards instrument per game the problem is no red zone work 22% red zone share for him versus 46% for Najee so where are you on Cook Harris and Warren in the context of at three games late that is really really good at running back again it's more it's more salary based for those guys like Najee Harris we can talk about the snap rate same for Jalen Warren but these guys are getting a lot of opportunities on a person at basis and so that kind of makes the snap rate misleading because his team is just so run heavy the question is if they fall behind will they remain run heavy I would kind of think yes to try to narrow the gap I think that's probably the way that they're going to go probably the way that they need to go so I think that Harris and Warren I'm going to have more of them than I would probably want because I think that the opportunity is going to be there the case against them in particular is they just don't score any points and you need touchdowns you can get 20 carries and you can have 80 yards but if your team's not scoring touchdowns that's sort of the big problem I think that's possible but salary itself is I'll just say the salary for both guys very reasonable and if you're going to get a little contrarian taking a team that's a huge underdog and taking their running backs makes sense so I'm not as out on them or as low as low on them as I as I thought I would be am I am I we're talking about the dolphins two backs like there's two guys they split work don't love it but I'm kind of higher on the but it's a very different salary this team is clearly trying to run the ball more than any team in football right now so my am I too high even being just like okay with these two backs no I think that's fine to be okay with them so I agree with you on their thoughts in their workload I think the key difference here is looking at the receivers in the 6000 range like Brandon cooks is there and he's at home which is important to Marcus Robinson is there I've never I don't know the last time I've heard you speak positively on Brandon cooks which is weird because I loved him like when he was younger which was 16 years ago but he's at home like that's the only reason I'm here he's playing indoors so like I like Brandon cooks and the other issue is these two names right here their proximity to James Cook and Aaron Jones that's the one kind of downside there I think Cook and Jones are both standout plays and they're both pretty close to Najee and Salary James Cook $7100 if you look at them are recent games it's been underwhelming but if you look at the overall sample since Joe Brady became the offensive coordinator James Cook is at 15.5 carries 3.7 targets per game 104.7 yards and scrimmage per game he was above 100 in the first three games and these been bad since then but red zone share is 26% that's an improvement from where it was I think Jones is the better play between the two but I think the James Cook is probably my number two running back play on the slate considering Salary is that too high no I think it's again goes back to the potential for this game just to be run heavy especially if there's no if Gabe Davis is inactive or not 100% I could again I just I worry about this game and you you know you sit down to watch football on Sunday and it's like the first quarters over before I even like realized it yeah I think this game can happen but that's good for James Cook in a sense yeah so I think it's reasonable to be high on Cook might be I mean my favorite exposure to the game would be James Cook but it depends on how heavily you stack these other games and how many players you want even from this game game lineup. Let's talk about the receivers Stefan Diggs Salary is $7,700 George Picken 66 Deontay Johnson above him at 67 I honestly just I think this is the spot where you go underweight on this game is the other receivers given the way the weather shakes out the one guy I could like the two guys I think that are worth discussing a bit more in-depth are Cleo Shakir and Trent Sherfield if we assume that Gabe Davis can't go. Sherfield is the guy who plays more outside of this but also like Shakir is a good football player and I think that they've kind of realized that the worry would be if they're in like two tight end sets is Shakir out there and I don't know the answer to that question honestly but he played well when Davis got hurt last week I think that they're in a position where it's hard for them to like forego playmakers and Shakir is that go ahead no I was just I'm in agreement like it's weird because this team's got the most well also one of the most explosive quarterbacks they've got Stefan Diggs they've got I think James Coak who's a playmaker but it feels like they desperately need people to move the ball for them too at the same time yeah it's it's weird but Shakir's salary is 58 that's that works prefer more of a Sherfield at 49 if I need to get down to a Sherfield like fine I guess but prefer Shakir tight end I think Kade is pretty solid at $6,000 if you look at the games that they played since Dawson Knox came back Kade has a 20% target share 17% the deep work and 21% inside the red zone that's pretty good and that's with game Davis playing so Kade would get a bump there 6000 is not like super super low but also like I don't think this is like a stellar tight end say I prefer Jake Ferguson at 62 but like I'm fine with Kincade how about you for him and then any pet Friar Muth or would you rather get hit by a boss because I would it's tough I love Friar Muth he was one of my favorite tight ends to model because you're Penn State bias admit it world's biggest Penn State fan yeah I I love my is it an alma mater if you didn't graduate from a place I think it technically might be but I don't know either way I like Ferguson I like Kincade I think too much to want to prioritize Friar Muth I don't think I need to get there again if I'm going with Steelers players I'm going with one of the running backs yeah I think that I'm there as well okay let's move on and talk about the anything else in this later can I can I skip can we can move on to the back okay okay because there are more for more fun things to discuss including my favorite game of the entire weekend that is the Packers at the Cowboys right now the Cowboys are seven half point favorites at home total in this game is 50 and a half talked about this on Monday but typically when you see a total this high in the spread that's not like double digits my model of a hard time keeping up however I've got this at 49.5 so actually pretty in line at the market despite it being a big total for this game which to me says I should adore this game for DFS and I do injuries in this game Christian Watson Romeo Dobbs both limited in practice on Wednesday Jaden Raid was full so a full by Wednesday you love to see that Dintayden Wicks was not on the injured report after it seemed like he got banged up late in that game last week AJ Dylan this practice with a neck injury that held him out of week number 18 so Brandon I adore this game I like it a bit more than Rams vs Lions where are you on this game in the context of the three games. I like it a ton. Jaden reads a big one full in practice we love Jaden Reed Saturday 7000 he's going to be a bit of a building block in a lot of ways but there's a lot to like I think about the Packers there's a lot of interesting guys we have Aaron Jones I think he's just going to be featured 81 or 82% snap rate last week I like AJ Dylan he seems like a cool guy Aaron Jones should be a featured back in the NFL also 7000 20 carries 100 plus yards in three straight games no touchdowns in anything which keeps his salary low like I said Pacheco is 100% like for the Saturday Slate Jones won't be there because there are more options for the Sunday Slate but if you put Aaron Jones on the Saturday Slate he'd be close to that yeah and you know Jordan loves got great efficiency playing indoors and I think it's four game sample 0.13 passing that expected points per drop back over expectation you would expect that number to be zero if you played exactly to the opponent 0.13 per drop back is pretty nice he's done pretty well against like good defenses too in terms of expected and expected points 0.16 there against top five defenses and again he's got stacking candidates primarily Jaden Reed this team is really hard to pinpoint what their relevant games are but there's no situation where Jaden Reed is not heavily targeted whenever he has a full game but there's also some others depending on the news we get so am I too high on love in this offense overall but it sounds like probably not based on talking to you cause you love this game too but yeah and like if you compare Alan and golf are there or Alan impressed out of their own thing because their salaries are high if you compare Jordan love to Jared golf and Matthew Stafford I think I'm taking love out of that group of like the lower salary quarterbacks in part because I do think the Packers can cover this spread I talked about that on Monday as well I think the plus seven and a half is very fair and I think they keep this game competitive at least so I think that love is the best of the non high salary quarterbacks this week where do you compare to golf and Stafford about the same but I like this game a lot the case for Stafford and golf is just sort of an easier past defense match up naturally sure but love you know I think this game is going to certainly score points so I think I'm higher on this game in that sense too and I think we have seen some leakiness of the Cowboys defense that Seahawks game comes to mind like you can move the ball on them if you're good enough I think the Packers are good enough right now which is why I like love a lot and I'm into Aaron Jones quite a bit too other running back in this game is Rico Dowdle Tony Power $7800 that's really high I want to use players facing the Packers defense but like buddy why is he 78 like why I hope in a perfect world tell me why I hope that Tony Pollard and Zeke are like friends but you got to think that Zeke is like doing a lot of like the take your pick of like the pointing memes or whatever and just Zeke is in Cancun and he's not watching football for 6 months like he's 5 he had to hear for years about Tony Pollard and I like Tony Pollard I still think he's talented it just hasn't all lined up I can't really justify I'm at 78 I think that he's well below James Cook and Aaron Jones I think the question is I think he's very similar to David Montgomery and Jameer Gibbs I think people like if I way more I wouldn't say way more I like him more I wouldn't say way more but like if you look at their most relevant samples they have an identical number of yards and scrimmage per game for Gibbs and Pollard almost identical red zone share 33.5% for Pollard 32.7% for Gibbs like they're basically the same money back I disagree we'll talk about Gibbs more later but I would put Gibbs above Pollard so we're in agreement at least in that regard if you are that high on Gibbs okay let's move to wide receiver I mentioned Brandon Cook's before let's talk about why because I feel kind of guilty saying that I like Brandon Cook's if you look at Brandon Cook's this year when he has been inside he is at 1.8 yards per outrun when he's outside he's at 0.6 so like he's inside $6500 we know how past heavy the Cowboys are his like overall target share stink since the buys at a 14% target share with 27% deep but like I think with this game being indoors $6500 is fine it's a little higher than I want to be but like it's fine how are viewing Cook $65 and Jake Ferguson $62 and then CD lamb at $10,000 for this Sunday slate yeah I can't really prioritize Cook Brandon Cook's because as you pulled up his game log a lot of recent touchdowns that drives up salary and it's not necessarily always warranted if it's just sort of touchdown dependent I am always trying to be sensitive to that the yardage upside I'm surprised you're okay with him because you normally you would yell at me unless you just cherry pick the $173 I that's exactly what I'm doing what do you mean okay you know me come on you think I wouldn't cherry pick come on so I'm disappointed that his salary is as high as it is and it's largely due to the touchdowns but again it comes down to the context of the game this should be one of the better games of the weekend in terms of fantasy points definitely a top two game on three games late on Sunday from that context from a predictability standpoint obviously not like a guarantee but the salary is a little bit high yeah then again it's all about building the right types of lineups together and if you like DAC and you can't quite get to CDLAM or if you like DAC and CDLAM and Brandon Cook's like Brandon Cook's definitely on the radar CDLAM of course is someone that you have to talk about and say hey is it a mistake not to try to get to this guy in a like your absolute first line up you want to talk about touchdowns he's got him in almost every game lately he's coming off of a two touchdown game but two four six straight games with double digit targets including two with 17 targets obviously indoors so he gets that bomb he's got single game target shares of 43 percent 26 percent 31 percent 31 percent 46 percent and 33 percent again I like to you know you can look at a whole sample but there aren't games where CDLAM is factored out it just doesn't happen how high are you on lamb is he someone if you're building one lineup for Sunday that you want to get to so let's view this in the context of other high salary guys on this slate that is Kyren Williams at 9000 Amon Ross St. Brown at 9000 and LAM at 10,000 I think that of those guys considering position replacement I probably go LAM 1 as the top priority Kyren 2 in large part because I like cooking Jones a lot at lower salaries at running back and then I would go Amon Ross 3 and I feel pretty firm putting Amon Ross St. Brown third of that tree just because of like raw upside those guys possess so I think that's how I view it can I get to LAM I really like to I just need to be realistic like if the route to LAM is you enjoy and love instead of Dak Prescott I'll do it I think that's fine by me I like Dak a lot but like I'll go love over Prescott if it allows me to get to LAM yeah so there's nothing bad you could say about CDLAM in terms of the usage but we also have Jake Ferguson who you know we'll see what the situation is with Sam Laporta I'm surprised but it sounds like I don't know with sounds like it's within the realm of possibility but I'm sort of anticipating that it's not which is another reason why Amon Ross St. Brown could have that volume based outside but I'm with you where the predictability of like a 30 point game skews more towards LAM and Kyron between the three so I'm with you on that but Jake Ferguson you know if you're just if you're just box score scouting doesn't necessarily look phenomenal but that consistency with the target numbers really great he's like consistently getting single game target shares of 20% that to me tells me that he's involved in the game plan and at this salary he's going to be hard not to kind of prioritize on the three game slates so Ferguson I will easily say my favorite tight end of the Sunday slate and it also helps offset some of the salary to get to Dak or if you're doing a full cowboy stack with Dak and LAM bringing it back with Ferguson helps a lot I agree that too and like I think that from a role expectation perspective Ferguson and King Cater pretty similar but we always talk about tight end tying them to the best game environments and like that's easily Ferguson here so agree to thoughts on him let's talk about the Packers past catchers again it sounds like they'll all be good to go Jaden Reed full on Wednesday Christian Watts and limited Romeo Dobbs the cares limited Dantavian Wicks again not on the injury reports the problem is they've got all four healthy so and I don't know the last time that happened before because like the last time that Watson was healthy is pre Dantavian Wicks like proving who he is and like Reed also hadn't really popped up then so you just give me your thoughts on the Packers past catchers because I need the most guidance there I think is how I phrase it even like Bo Melton's been doing stuff yeah like maybe their quarterback is good you know you know maybe maybe maybe that's the case but maybe a lot of these guys are just better than expectation but the one as we talked about Jaden Reed he I really want to get to him in my main lineup on on this slate but as for the rest of them it does get tricky because there's do you want to talk about read more no I just wanted to look at his game login smile Jim does that 13 times a day New Curtis Samuel and I mean that again in the most complimentary fashion you could imagine thanks for that clarification I mean like Dantavian Wicks has a really elite target per-out rate number better than Christian Watts like in target per-out rate doesn't necessarily account for overall game plan and stuff but it does adjust for like when you're on the field are you getting the ball Watson himself probably played a lot where he's been a decoy on purpose but Wicks is really appealing he's been really efficient too 2.76 yards per out run leaves the team if you exclude Bo Melton 2.91 but they got guys that's why I'm high on like Jordan Love yeah I agree you know you might miss on which pass catcher scores or something but with Reed Wicks like how high is Wicks for you is he someone you would consider plugging in for your overall main lineup on Sunday probably not if I can avoid it just because I'm worried oh geez can you avoid it though stupid Jim I was doing a play by play play by play query thing and I did forgot to uncheck the packers I was wondering my thing was so slow I worry about the snap rate because I if I'm Matt LaFleur I'm playing him over Romeo Dobbs I asked and you're not yeah but like I don't know if he'll do that if you look at efficiency when targeting these guys he's at 0.61 passing expected points per attempt when targeting Wicks and that's there's no sacks and they're obviously like that's a super inflated number but Jean Reed's at 0.41 Dobbs 0.33 Christian Watson 0.05 so like Watson they're gonna play if he's healthy although they do tend to use guys back maybe they just kind of you know rotate so I think that Wicks is probably pretty locked into a role whether it be via Watson being eased in or maybe Dobbs gets a role reduction of some kind so maybe I should just be there but I think I'm honestly like if I'm using Jordan Love I am not guaranteed to use a receiver or Titan with him I might just go Aaron Jones honestly I might go naked naked love unless you count well Jones yeah I'm going Jean Reed a lot with Jordan Love right I'd like to at 7000 I just know that like I'm gonna be pretty star for salary on this slate so yeah it's tricky that's why you make a good point though with Wicks we don't know can assume that the team is looking at these yards per route rate numbers or the same way I do about Dobbs that's also a thing someone I have Dobbs in a dynasty league I want him to do well but I know I know you're the anti-Dobbs guy but yeah with Wicks I don't think I would quite get there either on a main lineup but he's been playing really well and I just I think he deserves some attention did want to mention the tight ends here Tucker Kraft and Luke Musgrave Musgrave was back this past week I think they were easing him in because like this dude actually like broke his kidney seems bad I know broke's not the proper verb there but crafted a 90% snap rate with 26 routes and three targets Musgrave 15% snap rate 5 routes and one target I don't know if that will be sticky because Musgrave is now a week further removed from the kidney injury but it also was a must win game so and Musgrave was limited in practice with kidney on the entry report which is what a great sport so like I might just probably avoid these two guys like it's a nice salary saving so I prefer Kraft if I'm picking one but I see some volatility in his role too any difference for you there no tight ends really rough on this slate so it's going to be Ferguson and Kincaid a lot okay any final thoughts for you on this game or can we talk some Rams versus Lions let's move on it is the revengeiest revenge game that is ever revenge it is the Los Angeles Rams taking on the Detroit Lions right now at Fandall sportsbook spreading this game at three points in the total is 51 and a half Porta did this practice on Wednesday due to his knee injury they said he has an outside shot to play but outside is not inside so I doubt he goes Janice Williams though full in practice and should be good to go Tyler Higby limited with a shoulder injury so Brandon mentioned before my total as a my model as a high total for Cowboys versus Packers it's high here too I still think the under is a better play but like 48.8 for a non big spread is massive so from a DFS perspective light them up baby that's where I'm at in this game what about I prefer the Packers Cowboys by a bit but that's because I think I don't know there's some salary based things that I like there but where are you on this one overall thoughts here what I thought you're going to say is we prefer or I don't really know where I stand here I think I prefer Cowboys Packers though and it's because it's a two QB game I think this game both quarterbacks are very justifiable but I don't really think I'm going to get to Jerry Goff rude this team is able to run the ball they've got two good running backs that can move the ball in various ways I do think that Jimmy or Gibbs as I mentioned and this is not to talk like ill of Tony I just really like what I see from Jimmy or Gibbs in terms of his like underlying metrics and opportunities with Gibbs and Montgomery together since the breakout and everything Gibbs is almost at a 60% snap rate lot of red zone carries 48% 4.6 targets per game which is a 14% target share 33% of the red zone opportunities and if Sam LaPorte is out something tells me Jimmy or Gibbs is going to get some extra targets to sort of help account for that I would not be astonished if both guys play you know the same you know play in the backfield on the same snap maybe even Gibbs gets flexed out if they really need to kind of make something happen but Gibbs has not had a I mean he's had huge games as you can see but it hasn't been for two weeks I don't think that the snap rate or the overall opportunities jump out to anybody but his ability to get targets is what I think really separates him for me the salary is very reasonable I think it sounds like I'm higher on Gibbs than you am I too high on Gibbs it might be that I'm higher on Pollard but I because I like Gibbs a lot too I just I prefer Cook and Jones where are you in Gibbs versus Cook I think it's Gibbs I like the game way more I'm receptive to that that's fair we sometimes talk about we've seen situations where once the team gets to the postseason they narrow their backfield distribution where they like ride a certain guy I don't think we'll see that here because like David Montgomery is playing very well however I don't think we need to see it kind of for the reasons you had mentioned where Gibbs is getting targets playing alongside Montgomery his red zone share is actually good it's actually a bit better than Montgomery is Montgomery 26% in nine games since he came back Gibbs 32 or 33% so like that's good too very good game is 34 so bump him up yeah if I simulation model likes Gibbs more than anywhere any back on this later including Aaron Jones yeah I disagree that but well that's alright you can talk me into him over cook I think that's fine I do think though there is a case for David Montgomery in some lineups if I have one line up absolutely not if I have probably five lineups no but like if we're talking more than that like if you assume the lions kind of go a bit ground heavy in this game they can do so via Montgomery and he is at 75.7 yards from scrimmage per game since he came back which is a pretty good number 26% red zone share there are situations in which he winds up being in the perfect lineup so like I I'm not going to use both in the same lineup because they are like that seems kind of weird but like he's very similar to Gibbs in a lot of ways so I prefer Gibbs by a wide margin but like if I make the assumption that the lions kind of take care of business here I think that Montgomery benefit enough to be viable but again that's also like you know we're talking still 10 to 15% lineups so I'm not super high you think that's too high are you okay with that assessment what was it again 10 to 15% 10 to 15% I like Montgomery fine and I think in the right context you make sense Detroit is bottom 7 in pass rate over expectation since they're by again that adjusts for all the game context and everything so I expect a lot of opportunity it's like Michigan like same state I know but like people are like yelling at like J.J. McCartney like oh he doesn't throw a ball like if you have freaking Blake Corman down in other words why would you throw and you can just like obliterate teams into like submission like why would you throw like who cares I don't know why they didn't just hand it to Edwards every time he touched the ball he scored because he he ran in the back of one of his offense alive in one of the long touchdowns like it's very funny to see that happen it's like well this is both a good and bad of a player on a single play which is a true delight but I do like Montgomery now Kyron Williams is 9000 I already listed out that my priorities on this later CD lamb first fall by Kyron than a monrock how do you view Kyron are you actively trying to get there if you got a single line up at 9000 because I don't think 9000 that bad personally it's not that bad I would say so like again I mentioned that my simulation model is higher on Gibbs than anyone I personally am higher on Aaron Jones than anyone but I think for me it's like Jones and Gibbs like I'm absolutely flexing or running back on this late like that's not a conversation I want to get to Kyron I think he does separate you mentioned when we were talking about Isaiah Pacheco with a 93% snap rate and where that ranked and who was above him it's like Kyron Williams is up there his red zone role is phenomenal I don't think that's going to go away and even if even if Detroit plays some keep away or they play from ahead Kyron gets targets he runs routes I don't really see the case against Kyron from any perspective I think I'm probably going to flex Kyron because they're in the late game you can switch to a monitor if you're down you know with Kyron I think the only case against him is matchup and that's not a good case based on the way that I play DFS typically like matchups is going to be like one of the last things I consider but the lines are good against the rush by number fires metrics so they're a good rush defense but also we've seen Kyron against other good rush defenses and like I don't think the linebacker play for the Lions is like particularly like that great and like we can see them kind of play some games like it's fine it's better than it was last year but like against Cleveland very good rush defense 88 rushing yards 24 receiving yards against Baltimore you can get to them a bit with the ground with the ground game we saw the Rams actively trying to do so 114 yards there so like matchup won't scare me away that's the one reason why I'm ranking Aaron Jones and potentially both James Cook and and Jameer Gibbs above him but like if it weren't for the matchup I would go Williams for sure but that's also why I went lamb above him from a priority perspective are you Pollard over Gibbs though no I said initially that I was not Pollard over Gibbs I said that I thought I was like I thought that they were in the same tier okay why don't bumping Gibbs up because I think the irrational was good but don't tell don't tell Brandon I said that his rationale was good let's talk about the wide receivers in this game because there are a lot of them we have got Cooper Cup at 75 Brandon write it down I think Cooper Cup is under salary that's the first time I said that in the history you just admitted that like I convinced you of something and you like Cooper Cup we got it we need to like make sure Jim's I'll turn the camera towards the kidnappers off screen so you know that I'm actually not not okay I am unwell I am not happy not safe and not healthy but yeah I mean what's not I mean I know what's not to like about Cooper Cup in a sense but if you look at games with Kyron Cup and Pukinakua cups at a 27% target share 2.26 yards per route run doesn't get as much of the downfield work as Puka and I prefer downfield work because it's more bankable than red zone work but 37% red zone target share for Cup in this sample that's hard to ignore at this salary in a game where there should be points and you know he's had kind of a slow year maybe like overall but he's got those hundred yard games certainly I think that if they were at all keeping him in check now would be the time to sort of unleash him even more so at the salary makes a ton of sense and you know Matthew Stafford has been really good in his indoor games .12 passing that expected points per drop over expectation 48% success rate so like I think this offense moves the ball in various ways Cup's going to be part of that my question to you though is salary could go a long way 500 in salary Cup or Nekua and if it is Nekua how disappointed are you if you need to bump down to Cup to make a lineup work so that's a great way to phrase it it is Nekua but I'm not that disappointed if I need the 500 and that's a different deviation from where I've been previously but it also was not typically a $500 difference so like that does help yeah I got you are you on the same page as far as like you prefer Nekua but you're not that sad if you have to jump down to Cup yeah I like Nekua a ton it's I mean it's easy like both of them they ran out really similar similarly for me but again I red zone targets can come and go red zone chances can come and go downfield work is very nice but Nekua sat in the records I think there's a lot of attention there that Giants game he had one really long catch that I'm still tilting about you beat me in the bobble half that day why do you care? is for other reasons championship but like both of these guys there's also another receiver on this team that we could like I kind of don't hate him okay I know typically you've been the this is a guy yeah that you like Cup and at least are willing to consider to Marcus Robinson is a is a victory of it's like upset at this entry so if we look at the sample of the Rams with the Marcus Robinson being a starter or playing a lot at least like a half 50% snap rate I omitted week 14 when Tyler Higby didn't play although I probably could have kept that in because Davis Allen got a lot of work there too but in that time 16% target share for Robinson but 29% the deep work and 14% in the red zone he's actually been like good so like why would you stop using him yeah so I have I include a week 14 in that sample 21% target share 13.9 yard a dot 40% of the team's air yards over seven targets a game and then one of the weird things that just exists for to Marcus Robinson we talked about Cooper Cup getting red zone work and zone targets are even fluke here and less common but he's got 47% of the end zone targets in that span they throw the ball to him like in the end zone creatively it's a thing I think it gives Robinson an extra boost at this salary we got three receivers on this team we got Kyren should we be higher on Matthew Stafford that's been the case all year and Stafford hasn't done a ton to like burn us for not using him I think that's my perspective on it like he can have good games but and like you might only need a good game but I think given there are two high total games in the slate I think the path to like mistake erasing kind of games is easier for Dak and for Jordan Love what is the narrative boost we have to give them though well if we're talking narrative boost the person who's actually mad in this game is the opposing quarterback like Matthew still come mad he looks at that photo like Jared Goff just like looks murderous in this picture I can't even with the narrative I think that I'm firmly putting myself in the love over Goff and Stafford discussion I just I think I talked myself into Jordan Love too much I think he's great I did want to ask you though about another salary saver in this game Jameson Williams $5,200 and if I want to get to CD lamb I got to go somewhere and I don't see a lot of other great salary savers on the slate before Williams got hurt in week 17 he had three targets 69 yards and like the two weeks before that he was getting like his route tree is expanding and he had seven and six targets in those two games we know he has explosiveness they'll get him some red zone rush attempts at times borderline lock to be in my primary lineup on Sunday I was going to say I was going to say what's a route tree but I don't want to make it sound like I don't want to disparage myself too much for the for the bit but I knew you were going to behind Williams I'm predictable you know Laporta is vacating roughly a 20% target share they this team their backup tight ends don't earn targets I was going to say what's a route tree but I don't want to make it sound like their backup tight ends don't earn targets yeah I think Jameer Gibbs gets extra targets as a result but Jameson Williams also is going to get attention he's getting more involved slowly lack of touchdowns he's a good player you think he's in play for a single lineup for you not in play like almost a lot like a lock he does help a lot who else is down here in terms of Josh Reynolds we got a lot of work last week but it's because Jared Goff is his best friend but like he was feeding him work for incentives so like he's down there, Khalif Raymond is banged up didn't practice Wednesday he's also their punt returner so that actually could kind of be a downgrade Raymond is also got to get like kind of creative and fun touches he's been fun to watch but you know there's 2-2 I've been doing kind of like a bit player ever since DeMarcus Robinson took over so I really do think Ben Scrotts basically a fullback so like I don't know I think it's really Williams as a standout in the 5,000 range yeah unless we get like injury news for the Packers with Bo Melton having like a bigger role but other than that yeah I do think it's I think I do think it's Williams and I think you're right where you're building one lineup he really really deserves to get a long look whether you get there or not is one thing but I see the case for it obviously 700 salary difference one lineup are you going Dintavian Wicks if we assume that Dobbs and Watson play Dintavian Wicks who's been more productive in his snaps or Jamison Williams who is more of a lock to get snaps and does have some burst as well Williams in that situation there tight ends are you taking swings at I would say more so James Mitchell because he's more of the past catching kind of guy were you taking swings at Tyler Higby he's got a shoulder injury but did practice in a limited fashion on Wednesday or is it really just about Ferguson and Kincaid on this slate yeah I think it's well Mitchell had a 64% route rate last week and he is like he got the target on their second or third two point conversion attempt against the Cowboys it was him in the flat and couldn't bring it in but like he is more of the past catcher type guy for them Brock Wright's kind of a blocker I kind of envision a lot of my CDLM lineups could benefit from sure taking a roll of the dice there but I really got to make sure that I have upside everywhere else if I'm going that route or you know if you just sort of bet against sure it can be a bet against them yeah yeah so yeah it's a good call for sure I think I'll probably have a non-zero number of Mitchell for sure I'm sad that Minnesota legend changed Elstra's on IR otherwise we could could have given him a run tragic any final thoughts for you on this game or the Sunday slate like the game like the Slates still think I lean toward Cowboys and Packers is my preferred stack due to a lot of flexibility that I can get there I think I agree let's finish up here and talk about the Monday game that is the Eagles at the Buccaneers right now there is no single game slate posted at Fandle it will be up obviously but we don't have actual salaries to work off of I think based on years of experience we can kind of guess what the single game slate salaries will be for this from a more holistic perspective Eagles versus Buccaneers right now Fandle Sportsbook Eagles are three point favorites total in this game is 43 and a half eight mile per hour wins right now in Tampa Bay are projected for this game so not bad by any means but also not nothing key injuries for this game we don't know the status of Devontae Smith or AJ Brown yet Devontae Smith did not play week 18 AJ Brown left early with a knee injury didn't look great when it happened but also they said that he was the first guy to agree players they came off the field from that game so I have no idea what to read into those injuries also Jalen Hurst's middle finger is superbly effed so like I don't know how to think about that either talk me through this game because it is easily the hardest one to crack right now yeah it would be hard even if we had some information but we just have so little of it to begin with it makes it really tricky to guess this far out one thing that we can say for sure is that Philly's reeling and I just want to point out that it's not really because they're offense yeah be a lot easier to sit here and say that if they didn't have all these injuries now including an injury to that your quarterbacks throwing hand a knee injury to one of the most explosive players in the league a foot injury to one of the better second receivers if not like the best like it's hard to sit here and say like hey man like let's let's get in on the Eagles it's a little bit the win-loss record is going to change perception I still though just kind of think that you know Deondre Swet didn't play last week due to illness I think that Philly's probably going to try to run the ball a ton and just keep like do what they can to minimize disaster yeah because their defense also has played really poorly like that's what's leading like that's what's leading to the losses like their offense has been fine again I can't sit here and say it's going to be fine based on all the injuries but would it surprise you if like they have a like minus 10 pass rate over expectation or something a bit because of the matchup the Bucks have always been a really good rush defense now it's true this year too it's just kind of like a staple of Todd Bowles fifth against the rush for the Buccaneers versus 22nd against the pass so they faced a pass on 57% of the early downs that they faced which is a big number so if it were for the injuries I would say they'll be pass heavy in this game I think with the injuries considered I think they'll they might try to I'm just not sure how successful it'll be in that which is part of I think the Bucks who win this game in like the Eagles defense like you're not joking like they're 29th overall by number fires metrics 29th against the rush 24th against the pass they began the year really well against the rush but then just like got into a tailspin so talking about like the single game slate I know again it's not up but like I'm gonna have lines where I assume that the Bucks win like I want to go in with that assumption which leads to a bump for a shot white it'll increase my sentiment towards the like the Bucks defense honestly for the single game slate too so I think that's kind of where I'm coming at it from like do I make lines from like okay cool it's assumed that hurts is actually healthy other guys are good to go that'll boost up there but I think the Bucks are very live to win this game okay that makes me feel better because that's kind of how I see it as well I'm trying to run quickly because I was waiting for salaries and we didn't get them so I didn't run stuff but a single game simulations for this slate I have you mentioned Rashad White I'm around 20% likely to be the top score I think that's really appealing especially with their status as home underdogs by three points close underdogs and for someone like White as well we don't know what his single game salary is going to be again we can kind of estimate but should be very reasonable all things considered as a building block and his snap rate is really strong he is probably going to be the focal point because when talking about quarterback injuries Baker Mayfield is all sorts of hobbled they put up nine points against the Panthers last week I would I know like Philly should by game plan not run the ball I still think that they might because they might need to a bit to protect Hertz and depending on how injured everyone is in terms of the past catchers but Tampa Bay should run the ball and I think that Rashad White very very appealing MVP play for the single game slate right because you think about like okay you've got Hertz, AJ Brown potentially you've got Mike Evans even like there are a lot of MVP considerations will the public use White at a clip of 20% or higher I would say probably under on that number most likely so I think that makes him a good leverage played MVP for the single game slate if we're talking like the Saturday through Monday slate for Rashad White that's where I run into a bit more mehness because you get Gibbs you get Pacheco you get Kyron Williams, Aaron Jones James Cook, Devin Singletary I think White at 77 is not over salary but he's also not a clear value relative to those guys when you consider the issues the Bucks offense had how do you view White when we toss in those other options really strong game theory pivot job because we don't know what to expect in this game very fair injury report will be released day of Saturday but like that means it's a lot less time for people to react to the injury report for this game yeah and injury report is one thing but they'll kind of get some vibes like pregame like hey AJ Brown looks like Baker Mayfield looks like he's just hobbling around or something but that's sort of my best case for going heavy on this game is we don't know and there's some sort of leverage in the unknown but I think that's the best case for Rashad White that's not to say I think he's a terrible play on the full six game slate but I just game wise I think there's running backs in games that I expect to be higher scoring this one could be one of the lower scoring games because again while Philly's going to have a hard time running the ball I do think that they might run the ball a lot so I think the one guy who benefits from all the injuries is Dallas Goddard we've seen this situation with Philly where if they're missing one of their big three the other two are like amazing for DFS so I would be aggressive with the guys who are active for the Eagles if we assume one of them is out and honestly Goddard's alone is healthy right now so I think you can be on Goddard regardless but like what I would say is when we get injury news in this game if only two of the three are playing be aggressive with those two it's tougher if it's AJ Brown 82 just because that salary is kind of high but like with Goddard specifically at 61 like that could be my one route to like getting access to this game would be like via Goddard at 61 yeah Tampa Bay tends to funnel targets as well to tight ends but I mean you make a good point where Philly doesn't involve I know Julia Jones had the two touchdown game but it's not like someone else is like slotting into a 90% Philly or revenge game I know that people have no memory of him the Buccaneers but I promise you it happened actually his head shot is still from the Buccaneers that makes it even better we got a lot of revenge games this week I know Julio's number one again Julio against the Bucs is the number one revenge game forget your golf, Matthew Stafford Tyree Kale like those guys don't matter those Gibranis compared to Julio Jones against the Bucs but yeah with with Goddard in all seriousness Tampa Bay funnels targets to the tight end position and nobody else really steps up into bigger roles with one of these three guys hurt it just kind of doesn't work that way so Goddard Goddard's probably the most likely play for me on the sixth game slate from this game I agree with that wholeheartedly and that's with the caveat that I don't know how Jalen Hertz is going to be thrown the ball that's the issue is if we had full hurts and I'd be like very into Goddard but even with Hertz banged up and kind of an unknown I still feel like Goddard is on par with Kincaid, Ferguson in that 6,000 range yeah I think those are like the primary guys who were like there also Dolton Schultz I think is a play for the full six game slate too but Goddard's at least in that discussion which is an endorsement of what I expect from him for workload perspective now if the Eagles defense is as bad as the number of fires metrics say what are we doing with the Bucks we talked about Rashad White but I think it'd be hard to justify Baker outside of the single game slate yeah where are you with Mike Evans Chris Godwin Evans I think needs to be an MVP consideration for the single game slates because like we know he can go bananas and especially against the second year I think he can I don't remember what he did in week three 10 target 60 yards in that game but there's also the potential for Baker to not be good in this one oh my god you like Cup I'm poop talking my son Baker yeah I said I wasn't going to use didn't really want to use Goff see it's all out of sorts but like Evans like from an MVP perspective like you ran the Sims what are the odds that Evans is the highest scoring guy in the single game slate um this is without really downgrading her to ton but it's about 10 to 11 percent for Evans so yeah consideration White the better play between the two but like you know I think Evans is up there for sure I also think Godwin tends to be decent for single game slates because my issue with him is I hate I don't like the upside but that doesn't matter as much for smaller slates especially for a single game slate the yardage has been better recently than it was before the target total has been very steady you can definitely get at the Eagles so I think that Godwin both guys make a lot of sense I don't know if I'll get to either for the full slate just because there are receivers and better game environments where I like more like I like Nico well yeah Evans or Nico because I think I actually probably should prefer Evans actually on the six game slate I could see going Evans there I think so I prefer Pouca though yeah and Cooper for scrolling down but and I think when you have Jaden Reed Jalen Waddle above Godwin in the six game slate I prefer those guys too over Godwin so like for the six game slate I'm not as high but like you know I just want to be heavy I want to be above the field on the bucks for the single game slate because I just don't respect the silly defense right now you don't respect a lot of things Jim I don't respect Matt Patricia like I can say that one that's fine yeah it's going to be a little bit of a wait and see approach for the six game slates though you know we got the ability to swap things around so you can kind of make placeholders and build as if we you know as we learn more info for the Eagles and and everything so that's one way to do it but what's your total or what's your total for this game 43.4 so directly line of market where are you 45.3 okay any final thoughts for you on this game or wildcard weekend in general there's value if you're able as we always say to be different without being dumb I don't think you need to play Baker Mayfield on the six game slate but you can find ways to get unique stack teams that might be underdog something like that and I think this is going to be a fun weekend with all these different slates so many different ways to break things down yeah it's going to be a good one it is going to be a good one indeed that is all that we have here for today on the heat check fantasy podcast as mentioned make sure you're subscribed to get our PGA and USC podcast all in the same place you can also find the NFL podcast once again next Thursday 10 a.m. Easter on the faddle youtube page and then up on the faddle tv plus app and the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed after the fact branded if people have questions for you on twitter where can they find you there one twitter at goodwill 13 gd ULA 13 and I'm on twitter at Jim sonnis you can find me on threads at Jim dot sonnis and you can follow faddle research on twitter at faddle research enjoy a fantastic weekend of football everybody good luck to all of you in your contest we'll talk to you once again next week for the divisional round this has been the heat check fantasy podcast right here on the faddle podcast network