 Hi, my name is Leon Roe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180 calm We're welcome to this week's supply and demand forex and gold Fundamental and technical analysis if you're new a warm welcome to you And if you're returning an equally warm welcome to you and don't forget to like subscribe and share with your fellow trading colleagues Press that like button If you find the analysis that I provide every week useful, so let's get into really the the week ahead Looking at the economic calendar from trading economics Running for really what I think is the most important data to kind of look at is really the the RBA interest rate decision There the forecast of the consensus in the forecast anyways a pretty much in alignment Meaning that they don't expect an RBA rate hike if they do high crates the Australian dollar will be a buy But I think whatever's you know the current interest rate has been priced in You have Canada's growth rate as well Which is definitely something to be watched the consensus is four six point two trading economics is four five point five So let's see what happens there As we scroll down to a Wednesday, that was Tuesday by the way said it's nothing really nothing Majorly important on the Monday. So Tuesday Wednesday RBA chart pack growth rate is going to be obviously important because that supports potentially whether The RBA will look to hike rates or not Canada Bank of Canada had their interest rate decision as well. It's expected to be a hike the general market consensus and trading economics forecast is for a point two five percent or twenty five basis point hike and That's that's on Wednesday, so Thursday we have unemployment rate e a Say yeah, yeah European Zone and then we've got Friday, which is basically the the non-farm payrolls unemployment rate first day first Friday of the month So we're into March already imagine the consensus is for a slight drop-off in in non-farm payrolls The trading economics team think that actually should be somewhere around the 350k and the unemployment rate as well should be somewhere Okay, I guess no really no change. Maybe a slight drop. So let's see what happens with those is pretty gonna be business as usual and again, maybe before we get into the The the the technicals and some deeper fundamentals also as well if you didn't catch it I decided to put the fundamental analysis webinar I had a couple weeks ago the three steps to generating a profitable forex trade idea This is really if you're a forex trader or call yourself a forex trader and you don't understand this stuff Then how can you really call yourself a forex trader? You're just a patent trader someone who trades charts You have to in order for you to call yourself Really an asset trader you have to understand about that asset Prices are not driven by technical analysis regardless of what is banded around on Tiktok and Facebook and YouTube. It's all about fundamental analysis in the medium to long term So if you type in fundamental analysis webinar, the three steps to generating profitable forex trade ideas You'll get a nice two-hour webinar Which will explain really the ins and outs and why currencies are generally strengthen or trade idea to that effect anyways, but let's get into now the the technicals and some more fundamentals and We're starting off as we normally do on the dollar index and dollar index is just a measure of dollar strength against The major currencies are the currencies like the pound the euro in the end and last week's analysis We're just saying that pretty much. This is deemed as an expensive area up at the top right either expensive be for bargain price and Really which way you really want to be looking for say I'm looking for because it's not financial advice It's really again a dollar buyer, right? I was looking at dollar buyers and You pretty much seen it. What happened this week. We had the dollar buy, right? Went higher or saying it's gonna do that every single week But generally the path for these resistance should be to the upside So you can go back and look at last week's analysis So now I'm just looking for a basically a pullback But look not looking to trade the dollar index per se Just looking for this as confluence and if prices do come down to buy zones at 96 Maybe 95 50 round areas or half numbers and round numbers then those would be the zones that I'm looking at Looking to buy the dollar of against obviously the dollar yen the dollar Swiss as well are my pairs and in fact, I'm in the dollar Swiss trade at the moment and we'll get into that a bit later But fundamentally you've got the Fed repeats It will soon be time to raise rates a Fed release report to Congress ahead of power testimony and report based on data gathered before Russia invaded Ukraine now There is a bit of a problem to that Because What happens is if you hike rates a bit too much and again, this is covered in the webinar then you could Hurt the economy so the Fed may not hike as much as the I think they were talking about 50 basis points point five percent At one point, but now they may only Hike point two fire, but let's read the next a couple of paragraphs the Federal Reserve Rearray this view That it will soon be time to raise interest rates to counter high inflation amid a buoyant US jobs market The Fed said it would soon be appropriate to raise a target range for the federal funds rate citing inflation was well above its two percent target and The strong labor market in its semi-annual report to Congress for least Friday ahead of testimony of lawmakers next week by Jerome Powell so let's see what happens there that the The conflict in in the Ukraine with Russia May hit global markets and may obviously Effect the GDP of all countries as we are really kind of interrelated. This is interbank and that What's called now into interconnected all bloody other name escapes me, but we are Inter we are all connected anyway, I guess globalization So whatever happens in some countries will affect others depending on obviously imports and exports Russia being a very Export heavy commodity currency gas And oil Countries so it will affect other countries throughout the world. So let's see what happens with that so we are on a bit of a risk-off environment and again, if the The invasion escalates then you're going to see you're probably going to see the dollar Against some currencies start to still start to rise in value as the dollar is seen as a risk-off currency or can be in times of a of a crisis as well as the yen and the Swiss franc, but yeah, so the Ukraine you know is They're going through their their crisis at the moment and also as well just in case you did miss this Not that one, but this one the managing your forex trade in a risk environment I published that this week as well. So you can go over Really how to manage your trades risk and really my general view of of how I'm trading the markets So how I trade the markets during the risk off scenario So you've got two videos really to watch lots of content for you. Anyways My bias is definitely to the upside on dollars. So any pullbacks will be confluence To buy the dollar now moving on to the dollar yen now the dollar yen You know has gone up this week I did say from last week last week's analysis Was looking at this area as a pullback For a nice little word buy and this is basically what happened prices came down into its 114 0.68 Demand zone the start of that area there and they would buy an opportunities Which you know prices went to the upside now again in a risk-off environment, what typically happens is that the yen should strengthen Against the dollar, but let's see what happens with with prices And you never know what price is going to do in the short term but in In the long term you should have the you know the dollar start to rise against the yen and again it just depends on whether the Things really do escalate severely or whether it is a short-lived Crisis in russia and whether things get you know resolved soon if they do get resolved soon Then I think the the path of resistance is still to the upside and any pullbacks to demand zones I can get rid of probably that one there Let me drag that up there as that's a hidden demand will be Definitely look for a buy trades. I'm looking for buy trades myself So that's that but if risk does you know persist and things get worse then you should expect Or I would expect the Japanese yen to actually strengthen. I've seen Targets of the actual one elevens right? I said not in our private mentoring group We were looking at there was a some bank analysis that was talking about the one elevens as a as a target In a risk-off environment, but let's see what happens With that any pullbacks. I think of buying opportunities Moving on to the dollar Swiss dollar Swiss Managed to get in right at the daily lows On the dollar Swiss which was a nice buying opportunity. So for me, this was really the the trade Right here long position literally at the end of the day managed to get involved in that I think it was about 30 pips stop something actually about 27 28 pips stop And then yep, so we're up entered into two positions profitable trade so far and swing trading one One of the final positions on this now again, I have no idea Where the price will continue going higher or lower if again the conflict gets resolved I would expect the dollar to continue to strengthen in the face of a rate hike Or if things do get worse Potentially we could see that the Swiss Frank strengthen But either way this was a nice profitable trade as well as the the CAD Swiss And we broke down that trade in the private mentoring group and discord. So decent week For trading, but let's see what happens This week there is a demand zone Round here not necessarily the strongest area of demand. I personally if prices do come down I personally will look for again some long trades Probably the better area would be or the cheaper area exchange. It would be somewhere around this 91 0.91 cent area. I'm looking at that area as well for buy trades moving on to the the dollar CAD and the dollar CAD Again a bit of a difficult one to trade you've got two central banks that are looking to high crates But in a straight fight, I guess When you're looking at the the risk sentiment the dollar should be the one to strengthen which it did this week as well You know prices did go higher before again Coming back lower again in the short term. It's very difficult to actually You know predict what prices are going to do in the short term, but in the in the medium to long term In the medium to long term Um, you know, you you should be able to predict if you understand how to use fundamentals where prices are going to go now Two central banks together Hiking rates again. It's a harder trade to take. So for me, I'm not really interested in this I did say last week if you did want to get involved in this trade here Or to the to the downside that would be really your your options And if you want to get involved in uh, you know buying the the dollar the us dollar That would be your trade to the upside Those would be really the kind of the two three Best zones to look for any kind of uh any kind of trades. So, uh, let's see what happens with that But not really interested in in the dollar cat at the moment Even though I think in a risk-off environment the uh, the dollar us dollar should strengthen New zealand dollar us dollar backed by popular demand and in fact, I should really delete all the analysis Um, I know I did take this off um A few uh, I haven't really looked at it a few months in a few months really because I'm not really trading it But I have read some youtube comments uh that were wondering about the um The new zealand dollar us dollar. So I thought I'd just add it Just to do a little bit of analysis. I guess on it's just for those of you who are trading it So that's the demand zone. There's another demand zone and um That's where we are Right now zooming in again, um Two central banks that are looking to uh hide crates again You did see prices come up to this supply zone nice little sell-off and if you wanted to be a buyer, you know Could have bought down here for the upside, right? But again for me, um It's it's a harder trade to predict where where where prices will go or may go In the medium to long term as you've got again the rba Sorry rbnz the reserve bank of new zealand and and the uh The federal reserve both hiking rates. So you'd probably expect prices to really kind of you know, stay within this range here within this fair value auction between um The 69 round number and probably 60 0.65 cent Point two anyways around there. That's where prices are probably going to remain for the foreseeable future. I think um, but again, if you are looking at buy trades, I'd probably say anything around The lows and the highs as these represent Bargain areas depending whether you're buying the quote currency or the base currency. So moving on to the pound dollar pound dollar And uh, we did have a level of demand in and around this area Again, I was saying uh last week that this level had been touched several times and I was probably saying that I say probably I did say that if you wanted to get involved in this trade You may want to wait for prices to come up to that one three seven round number before getting in short But what happened is is that obviously we were in a risk off scenario money will flow Generally flow into the u.s. Dollar, which means that prices should want to you know go short, which it did You know go to the downside The demand zone as she held prices didn't close there But let's see what happens this week. Again, this is not really a pair that I'm looking to trade but fundamentally We're looking at The bank of england a half a half point bank of england rate hike is sliding out of reach for traders So policy makers who backed a half point raise now more cautious Focus will shift appearances by man and saunders next week So traders appearing back bets of a 50 basis points hike interest rate Sorry interest rate increase from the bank of england at the next meeting after the invasion of the ukraine and More cautious comments from policy makers who previously voted for a bigger move. So again the the the ukraine invasion or the russia invasion of of the ukraine is It is causing concern for the Central bankers looking to hike rates more than usual So they're probably going to high grades but just not as as much as previously previously expected. So from that perspective I guess we can kind of delete this I'm going to draw. I guess a zone. I don't really like drawing a zone from here to here at all It's not really how to draw zones, but I will draw it there. It's not even a strong area of demand, but There is scope for a potential to look for any kind of buy trades in there Not something not a trade that I would look really to take unless it was maybe something on the intro day I'd want to see a lot more than than that But I'll keep it there for now The ultimate goal if you were looking to buy the dollar would be really down into this This low and if you were looking to buy the dollar Then you're looking at An area there just again keeping in mind that there was been touched several times So the better area is really up at the top the 1 and 3 7s So now moving on from the From the pound dollar to the euro dollar euro dollar so Again just looking at really where the power for this resistance has been It's saying we want to be a buyer buyers of the dollar and the euro has suffered because of risk of sentiment And this is due to the close proximity of the issue at hand To europe europe are going to going to definitely be the most affected by Any any problems in that region and and basically you're seeing that you know play out right now this week So there was a few traders in the group that really took advantage managed to get involved up here and you know Swing trading it down for they've got a good couple 100 pips well done to those traders And yeah, so this was potentially again. It's always a good profit taking area around these areas here, but if again if if if the The the tensions do escalate and I say tensions, but the invasion does escalate you'd probably expect The the the pound sorry the the euro dollar to Continue to to fall right down to potentially there's again. It's targets of the 110s so Let's see what happens there. So if you're looking at More conflicts then really a pullback into that 113 10 area Is really where you're looking at Getting short in that zone if you're looking at getting long on the fact that they're potentially may be A bit of a resolution sooner rather than later any pullbacks into that demand zone I think are decent buying opportunities for the euro Technically not necessarily fundamentally, but technically if you do want to get involved in that Looking at the Aussie dollar and the Aussie dollar Prices did come up to a nice Zone freshers zone of Of supply which is right here and then prices did fall and again. We did get a bit of a pullback as well. So Again short term nobody knows what's gonna happen, but there was scope To get in short during that so between, you know, there was actually A How many pips worth of moves so from an absolute high up you managed to capture the absolute high Which no one ever does To the absolute low which again, no one ever does but there was definitely a hundred and eighty nine hundred and ninety pips Worth of movement within that zone there So again to zoom in down into that lower time frame if you went down into a lower time frame And then looked for a potential entry in and around there that would have been represented a really nice risk reward trade there But um, let's see what happens with the Aussie dollar not looking to really take this trade Although I understand why traders are taking this but for me personally not looking at this currency pair at all um, again, if you're I was looking at from a technical perspective, I think the fresher area of Of supply for a short trade My bias would still be to short the the australian dollar and buy the us dollar As the u.s. Dollar fundamentally should be ahead of the australian dollar From a monetary policy perspective, so there we are Moving on to the The ozzy yen and ozzy yen again, I haven't traded Because I haven't traded it, but I haven't analyzed it this this currency pair for again A while so I thought I'd add this again popular demand Um And let's see what happens. So let's see that's a supplier right there. Drag that back in fact, I'll leave that there You've got uh supply and supply at the top and then where demand zones demand zones you're looking at around here And uh, you're looking at the lows, you know, probably take all that into consideration Actually, this whole area into consideration right there So lots of demand uh in and around that zone when you get a large area of demand By the way, what you want to do is break that down One of the ways that you can break that down is just looking at where there's a potential support and resistant zones that have been traded Within that zone and then look for you know trades if prices do come down into that area That would be where you're looking for but I probably prefer the fresher area of demand And that fresher area would probably represent somewhere around around here You can see that there's definitely support and resistance in that zone There's just slightly below around that 80 round number matter of fact So that would be nice and if uh prices do come down due to risk off sentiment I think uh these areas to to look for buy trades are going to be quite nice if you're looking at um Uh again risk more risk on I think the power of resistance is to the downside So you're looking for really kind of like said pull backs if you're looking for risk off I do think now technically isn't the greatest time to look for a risk off trade although Um, you know risk off sentiment really would would drive price if we you know open up on the sunday And things have escalated and got even worse. So um Personally, you probably want to look for that 84 round number Just above that or a fresher area of supply to look for short trades as in a risk off environment The uh the yen uh strengthens So you'd want to get short on this currency pair and moving finally on to gold. So gold. Um Again just doing previous analysis From last week you can have a look at that or have a watch of that but um, uh, I think uh with with risk Definitely coming off Uh in the invasion There was a nice, uh move to the upside All right for the uh for gold which uh eventually culminated in a bit of a, um Uh a reversal and I don't hesitate to call it a reversal. Um of any type because um, there's probably this is definitely a An illiquid market, right? So meaning that there's not enough liquidity So if there's not enough liquidity to sustain this move then you'd need to um, Definitely need to uh, uh the price Needs to come back down to search for the liquidity to go potentially go higher, right? So let's see what happens there and if you haven't already as well, um, watch uh mark chatman's webinar On on the liquidity providers as that would definitely provide a lot of insight into really the move and The reasons why the market makers Um, uh, uh have to provide the liquidity and the certain footprints of the market makers It's definitely market makers in here. I can tell you that now Anyways, if you are looking to buy gold from a fundamental perspective meaning or definitely a risk sentiment perspective Uh, then you're looking at a pullback into that demand zone for sure Uh, that are represented decent buy With maybe some upside potential around the 160s If you are looking at um, the fact that you want to get short I'd have to still say again You'd have to wait for really prices to come up to that 160 for me. Anyway before looking at short trades Um, no point in shorting now. First of all, your risk reward is going to be insane And no one's going to take that uh risk reward So you really want to get you know, if you want a short gold You want a short gold at a better price, which would be up at least around these uh, 1942s to 1972 area. So Again, if you understand that or if you think that the Crisis is going to escalate then you want to be a buyer of gold if you think that things are going to Resolve sooner rather than later then this could be a potential for a decent short trade Anyways guys, I think that's pretty much it for this week. Uh, yeah pretty much it for this week Take care guys, and uh, I will see you soon to the next video