 Thanks Richard, good morning everyone. I'd also like to start by thanking Chris, David, Kyan and Neil, who are the A-Bears analysts and researchers whose work underpins the outlook for grains and oil seeds that I'm presenting here today. And it's an outlook that's quite similar to last year. As is often the case in Australia, there's been continued variability in seasonal conditions across the country. Prices are continuing to come down from the records of a few years ago. But despite this, we see Australian grain growers remaining highly adaptive and responsive, managing challenges as they emerge, taking advantage of opportunities as they occur and we see the industry increasing its profitability and productivity. I want to start today with a quick look at Australian production this year and how we see that translating into farm incomes. I'll then turn to our forecast for 2016, 17 and beyond and then finish with some new A-Bears research into productivity on broad acre cropping farms. Starting with the update of the current summer crop season and it's a pretty mixed story, positive in the north but not as good in the south. Grain sorghum is forecast to rise to 2.2 million tonnes off the back of increased plantings in New South Wales and good rain in January across many summer cropping regions, resulting in higher average yields. Cotton production is up around about 5%. The area planted is actually estimated to have increased by more than 30% but there is more dryland cotton in the mix this year. Reduced availability of irrigation water is constraining rice production in the south and we're forecasting that to be down about 60% on last year. Put together the increase in grain sorghum and cotton production isn't sufficient to offset the decline in rice production and we're forecasting total summer crop production to fall to 3.9 million tonnes in 2015-16. Moving to last year's winter crop, despite the El Niño, it's up about 4% on the previous year although that does mask considerable differences between the states. We estimate winter crop production increased to 39.5 million tonnes in 2015-16. We're forecasting increased production in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia and we saw poor seasonal conditions for a second year in Victoria. Quality is somewhat compromised nationally but wheat production increased to 24.5 million tonnes, barley production increased to 8.5 million tonnes in response to high prices and we saw farmers responding to those higher barley prices and less than favourable planting conditions for canola and we saw them reduce the area planted to canola in 2015-16. We estimate a 15% reduction in canola production but the quality of that crop was generally good. Chickpeas are a small crop relative to wheat, barley and canola in Australia but I can't go past it as a great example of grain producers ability to take advantage of opportunities when they occur. There was a significant increase in chickpea production in 2015-16 as farmers responded to a strong price incentive. The failure of monsoon rains in India reduced Indian production and increased their demand for imports. India is the largest producer of chickpeas in the world and also accounts for almost a quarter of all world chickpea imports and so they influence the world price. Together with the increase in the world price and the depreciation of the Australian dollar, the Australian export price for chickpeas increased by about 70% between late 2013 and September 2015. The area planted to chickpeas doubled, good seasonal conditions led to above average yields and we saw record production of 1 million tonnes. So how does all this translate to income on grain farms? We estimate that farm cash income on cropping farms increased in 2015-16 to average 381,000 dollars a farm. This reflects increased production in the major grain producing states other than Victoria, reasonable to good yields in much of the country, high prices for pulses and oil seeds and depreciation of the Australian dollar. If realised, this will be the highest average income on cropping farms in the last 20 years and it's a significant achievement when you consider there was an El Nino and that world prices have continued to decline. I want to move now to our forecast for 2016-17 and out to 2021. Starting with the climate outlook. The Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting average to above average rainfall across all cropping areas over the next three months and the climate models are suggesting a return to neutral conditions in the lead up to the winter crop planting window following a strong El Nino that is starting to break down now. Moving to the world outlook, we're forecasting continued growth in demand for grains and oil seeds, both for human consumption with a growing world population and for livestock feed as higher incomes changes the composition of global food demand. This isn't new and we see this factored into global production levels, with producers around the world increasing supply to meet this demand. This includes in the Black Sea region where we're expecting productivity improvements will increase yields and lead to greater production over time. And in Argentina where there have been changes to policies recently that are expected to encourage greater exports. Looking at that growth in world production in a bit more detail, we're forecasting a slight fall in global oil seed production in 2016-17 but it is still the third largest on record. We're forecasting strong growth in oil seeds over the medium term up to 577 million tonnes by 2021. That's driven by the demand for vegetable oil for human consumption and we're expecting much of that growth in production to occur in South America. We're forecasting a 1% increase in world coarse grain production in 2016-17 and growth of about half a percent a year out to 2021. This reflects the relatively more favourable prices for oil seeds compared with coarse grains which has been driven largely by the strong demand for vegetable oil for human consumption. But the dual product nature of oil seeds is also playing a role. Meal production is increasing as oil seeds are produced for oil and it serves as a partial substitute for coarse grains for livestock feed and it's expected to place at least some downward pressure on global coarse grain prices. We're forecasting a 3% decline in world wheat production in 2016-17 and this is a result of our assumption that yields will return closer to the long run average in the European Union and the Black Sea region and the relatively more favourable prices for oil seeds. We're projecting modest growth in wheat production globally out to 2021 driven by continued productivity gains. Moving on to world prices, you can see that prices have continued to fall from the records of a few years ago. With growth in supply expected to meet forecast demand, we're forecasting grain and oil seed prices to fall slightly in real terms out to 2021. And it's really hard to see much upside uncertainty to this forecast particularly when you consider global stocks. What isn't shown here in the slide is the significant accumulation of grain and oil seed stocks over the last couple of years. There is some uncertainty around the numbers but we understand stocks around the world have increased by about 20% since 2013-14. So even if there are or were to be adverse conditions in one or more of the major producing countries, those stocks are going to serve at least as some kind of a buffer to increased prices in the medium term. Bringing it back to Australia and what this means for domestic producers, the outlook is pretty favourable with a lower Australian dollar and our assumption that it will stay below 75 US cents over the medium term. We're forecasting a recovery in canola production in 2016-17 up 11%. This reflects our expectation of at least average rainfall in the lead up to the planting window, good prices with strong demand from the European Union and a reduction in palm oil production in Indonesia which has been affected by the El Nino. We're also forecasting further growth out to 2021 with canola prices expected to remain favourable relative to the price of barley. Wheat production is forecast to rise 1% in 2016-17. We're expecting a similar total area planted to wheat as last year but we're expecting it to come from different places around the country. We're forecasting a reduction in Queensland and New South Wales as we expect some of those growers will plant more chickpeas and we're expecting an increase in wheat production out of Victoria on the assumption of the return to improve seasonal conditions. Over the medium term we're forecasting growth in Australian wheat production will be driven by continued productivity growth out to 2021 which I'll talk about in a little bit more detail in a minute. With canola prices expected to be more favourable relative to coarse grains we're forecasting coarse grain production in 2016-17 to be pretty similar to this year. We're projecting modest growth out to 2021 influenced in part by a projected decline in Chinese demand for imports as government policies create incentives to use domestic production. And we understand chickpea plantings in India as at the end of January are still down but we're expecting a number of producing countries to take advantage of this. We are forecasting export prices to come down in 2016-17 off the highs that we've seen but we do expect to see a further increase in chickpea plantings next year and for exports to stay high until Indian production levels recover. In the time remaining this morning I want to share some really interesting productivity work that A-Bears has been doing recently. For a while now A-Bears has been updating and publishing farm productivity estimates every year based on our farm surveys data. You might be familiar with the observed slowdown that we've seen in productivity growth in the broad acre cropping industry in Australia. With the latest year of data included we estimate productivity growth on broad acre cropping farms has averaged just 0.3 percent a year between 1996 and 2014. This compares with productivity growth of around two and a half percent a year between 1978 and 1996. The dips in the green line there show years of drought and poor seasonal conditions. Our measures of productivity growth are influenced by those seasonal conditions and it explains some of the poor growth since the mid 1990s but until now we haven't known by how much our measures of productivity growth have been affected by climate. For the first time we've had to go at quantifying the influence that climate has had on our measures of broad acre productivity growth. We've matched Bureau of Meteorology information on rainfall in the growing season, soil moisture and temperatures with A-Bears farm level data and we've been able to isolate the impact of climate by comparing how farmers actually performed with how they could have performed if the climate was more consistently average without the highs and lows. The work is still in its early stages and we're continuing to refine the methodology but the initial findings suggest that poor seasonal conditions over the last decade or two have masked the level of productivity growth on broad acre cropping farms. When we quantify the influence of climate on our measures of productivity we see annual rates of productivity growth around one percent a year since the mid 1990s and that compares with our previous estimate of less than half a percent a year. This suggests that Australian grain producers have been continuing to innovate over the last two decades. It's just that those innovations have been absorbed in offsetting poor climatic conditions that farmers aren't getting as far ahead in terms of profitability as we'd expect for the amount of effort that they've been putting in but that if they hadn't been making those innovations then in the face of climate change grain farmers would be doing much worse than they are. Our findings are consistent with some work that's being done out of the CSIRO that's looking at declining trends in wheat yields over the last two decades but also that seeing some evidence of productivity growth as the gap between actual yields and potential yields has narrowed over time. And we're also seeing similar things to researchers at the Australian Export Grains Innovation Centre AEGIC and last week one of Ross's colleagues released some work into changes to the Australian climate. Since 2000 there's been an increase in summer rainfall and a decrease in winter rainfall and when mapped AEGIC found that the Mediterranean climate zone with winter and winter dominant rainfall has contracted in a southwesterly direction. The summer and summer dominant rainfall zones in the northern and eastern parts of Australia have expanded southwards and the uniform rainfall zone where summer and winter rainfall are roughly similar has moved from southern and central New South Wales down to central Victoria and the Malley region of southeast South Australia. We're still analyzing the regional variation in our own measures of farm level climate adjusted productivity but our initial findings are consistent with this AEGIC work and we're seeing greater deterioration in productivity along the inland fringes of the cropping zone. So what does this mean? If climatic conditions stay this way or deteriorate further then more productivity gains will be needed for farmers to offset this and remain internationally competitive. This in turn is likely to require greater investment in research and development to adapt to climate change, improvements in seasonal forecasting to assist farm decision making, greater use of risk management tools such as farm management deposits and insurance products to reduce financial risk. And reducing financial risk will be critical to securing greater investment in new technology. In summing up, I just get one minute, the prospect for the Australian grains and oil seeds industry are quite good. We see farmers being flexible, successfully switching between crops based on relative profitability, taking advantage of short term opportunities as they occur and translating that into good farm incomes and continued productivity growth. And these are going to be really important to combat the global market outlook and the impact of a changing and variable climate here in Australia. Thank you.