 All right, well, David, welcome back, my man. It's been a while since we spoke, and boy, oh boy, has a lot happened in the markets. It's good to have you on, how is everything? I'm well, it's good to see you again, Ricardo. And yeah, I mean, I feel like there's a cup run if over of things we could go to, of course, these days. Absolutely, I don't even know where to start. I'm just going to give it a throw in there. Start with the dollar. I mean, recently we saw the dollar edge higher. It had some strength against the basket of currencies. More specifically this week, but we've seen it for a while. And then suddenly, PMI data comes in yesterday, week or people are expecting a lot from tomorrow's Federal Reserve speech during the Jackson Hall. And then that's gone back to weaker. And there's a lot to untie there. What are you seeing there? What's going on? What are we expecting moving forward? Yeah, so I think it was last week. It was a very like 2022 kind of week. And 2022, for most that year, I sort of described the dollar as the wrecking ball for risk assets. So if you look at sort of the chart of the dollar, first three quarters of 2022, the average week was dollar up and pretty much everything else down. And I think that was such the trend in the market during that period. It changed quite a bit, obviously, in the fourth quarter of last year, weaker dollar, stronger risk assets. And that's kind of been the story going into 2023. But really, after the first couple of months of 23, it's really been more of a rangebound dollar more than anything. So you've seen a bit of a nice rally here recently. And last week in particular, you had a stronger dollar as everything else was coming off. And I think if there's a risk to where we're at now in the seasonally weakest part of the calendar year for stocks, which is August and September, usually leading into a fall low, a stronger dollar, I think, further from what we've seen so far would really put an exclamation point on that potential scenario where a stronger dollar really hurts other risk assets and causes other things to basically depreciate in value. So I think the bounce in the dollar here most recently is a potential emerging theme. But when I take a step back from the chart, I'm struck by actually how sideways the trend has been really for the last six months or so. Yeah, it's interesting, because that inverse relationship you talk about exactly, we've seen it with gold, with the S&P, but one of the things we've also mentioned or we've seen and that's been, I mean, the headlines for a while now is treasuries, right? The last time it was that low, it triggered a banking issue. And so we saw yields on the benchmark treasuries, we're talking about the 10-year hit, hit 16 new year highs. I was having conversation with a friend of mine and he was saying, it's so dangerous that if it goes up to 5.1, it could even go up to 5.7%, then we have issues. Again, weak PMIs yesterday, one data point, probably shift the narrative slightly, but two aspects there, do we expect treasuries to continue to go up? Is that yield curve going to steepen? And what's gonna happen tomorrow? Do you think the Fed is gonna come back, throw a hawkish message, take a stance, reiterate that this is a message about data, this is a message about inflation, the economy continues to be resilient and we're not stepping back down. Yeah, no, there's a lot. That could be an hour long conversation just on all of those themes, to be honest with you, Kara. I mean, and I think these are significant themes to try to figure out. I think the general trend in 2023 has been all about investors trying to appreciate and understand a rising rate environment. And I would remind all of us, many investors, particularly newer investors, kind of coming in during the COVID era, we've never really experienced any sort of rising rate environment. It's a very different environment than the zero interest rate, aggressive growth kind of period that we're coming out of. And I think recognizing the ripple effects of that sort of higher rate policy, I think we're still trying to get our head around. One of the biggest issues, I would say, for the equity markets here, which has been primarily a growth led market in the US for sure, if not globally, is that higher rates just aren't great for growth. The growthy part of growth, the promise of future earnings are less attractive, the higher rates are getting now. So I think the trend in higher rates over the last couple of months, I think you're starting to see now the impact of that as companies recognize and consumers deal with the fact that things are getting more expensive, right? So the Fed is intentionally trying to slow down the economy. You're seeing signs of that, certainly of that kind of working. The question now that I think Powell have to address is continuing to try to navigate this sort of quote unquote soft landing, which is how do you slow down the economy and get inflation in check, but not completely crush risk assets and economic conditions at the same time? Rates for now have been rising. I think there's plenty of upside still to be had with the tenure. I wouldn't be surprised if we get sort of in the mid-upper 4% range. I wouldn't think over 5% makes a lot of sense to me here, but what I would say is there's a difference between rising rates, which is what we've seen, falling rates, which we've certainly seen before, and just consistently high rates. And I think that third option is what we might see, which is not necessarily that would go dramatically further up from here, but that we remain elevated. And you have to remember elevated interest rates have a sort of an initial impact when people understand that's the new policy, but then there's sort of these additional consequences. So the next time you go to buy a car or buy a house or take a loan, that's when you're feeling the impact. And so I think the conditions will continue to be somewhat oppressive for consumers here for a little while. And I think that's what weighs on growth. That's why I think the rotation to value that we've seen here in the last six to eight weeks, I think that's just the beginning of that rotation of themes going into the fourth quarter. Yeah, I mean, a lot of great points there, you talk about conditions. One thing that pops up into my mind is the overbought conditions of the equity market, that extreme optimism that maybe still exists before the Fed says anything or we start to see data go back up, like inflation, for example, CPI data. And like you said, soft landing, there's a belief that the US economy can still achieve that. So these are all positive catalysts that we've seen help drive US equity markets up. S&P, NASDAQ, Dow Jones had a great run. Yeah, they got a hit because of the yields and the concerns that investors saw in that space. But all these put together, I think, if you look at what you just mentioned, the valuations well above historical averages. The full year earnings per share projections of stocks are yet to turn materially higher. We talked about the yields rising, we think that's still gonna be the case, et cetera, et cetera. So the rebound that we saw yesterday on the fact that the soft PMIs or the weaker PMIs, do you think that upside could be capped for now and there isn't much more to go higher or what do you think, especially going to this, I think the next topic of the pre-season or pre-election seasonality? Yeah, so I think there's gonna be a difference between the short-term reaction, right? Sort of that initial reaction to a low PMI or to NVIDIA beating earnings, those types of things, right? These create these initial reactions, which is a short-term positive reaction we've seen from equities with those sorts of news events. But I think what happens after that is investors after that initial reaction, you then sort of take a step back and think about the broader conditions. And the reality is those broader themes that we've mentioned, right? The idea of higher rates and the fact that rates most likely remain elevated for quite some time. Yeah, the reality that sort of the ultra-low interest rate environment is probably behind us for the foreseeable future. I think that is still the overarching theme that the markets have to sort of grapple with. And the ripple effects of, again, what the Fed has been doing with an aggressive rate hike cycles, how I would describe it. I think those are still, I think the impacts of those still sort of play out over time. So you saw a lot of signs, as you mentioned, of sort of an overvalue to what I call an overextended market, certainly May into June and then into the July high. And this is when all the growth names, kind of the magnificent seven names, as we call them now, continue to make higher highs and just felt like they could not go down. And then all of a sudden you saw the rotation down. You see charts like Apple and Microsoft gap lower. You see a lot of those fang stocks actually starting to gap down. And I think that was the initial move out of a multi-step move that kind of goes down. So this sort of bounce that you have on a week like this certainly feels to me, it has that feel of a contrarian move, sort of a counter trend move, which is pretty common, right? You have that initial impulse move. You have a bit of a reaction where initial buyers come in. But I think overall the themes that we talk about are not one day or one week themes. These are months and years long themes that I think the market will be grasping with for quite some time. So I think things like rotation, I would say the great rotation away from growth and into value, that's something that takes some time. And I think we're just seeing the beginning of that here. Perfect. I actually had a question which is quite interesting. I said, will there be more aggressive dip buying than rally selling? I guess you could see that in short term. Yeah, no good question. And that's sort of the general, that's one of the basic trading maxims. Yes, is this an environment to buy the dips or sell the rips? And I would say this is probably more the latter. And what's funny is that buy the dip mentality has worked pretty well in 2023, as you know, and a lot of stocks pulled back to their 50 day moving average and then would just keep going higher. And that is pretty classic behavior for a bull market phase. One of my mentors, Greg Morris used to say all new highs are bullish except the last one. And I think that's sort of that scenario. Buying on the dips works until the last one which isn't a viable dip, right? And that's what's most noteworthy. When a stock pulls back and then that bounce higher doesn't really propel us to new highs. That shows you that that buying momentum that has propelled prices higher is now starting to dissipate and that people are more excited to be taking profits up at these elevated levels. And we saw signs of that. I mean, if you, any sort of measure of valuation, you certainly could describe stocks as overvalued, certainly in the second quarter, going into the beginning of the third quarter in traditional valuations. And from a technical perspective, overbought and overextended, now you're seeing them start to come down. And I think a bounce like you're seeing this week, I think you start to see sellers come in. And you're seeing that in a lot of names which are gapping higher and then trading lower, which means there's a gap up and then people are super excited not to buy additional shares, but to take profits. They're thrilled to get out at an uptick. And that all of a sudden, that sort of selling mentality affects an individual there but then over time that really starts to create a downtrend. And again, I think that's how a more of a waterfall decline starts to play out over time. Absolutely. You mentioned this about bank stocks. It's another conversation I also had. We were having a lot of conversations these days. When we saw the Moody's cut the credit ratings of small mid-sized US banks, obviously that had some, several big Wall Street names that had them on negative review, but let's look at banks specifically. I think this is quite interesting. We obviously saw SVB breakdown other banks as well. And you look at the Q2 results when they were providing earnings and you saw profitability pressure start to increase. That would reduce their ability to generate internal capital. And specifically I was talking to them about Citigroup huge bank, now trading at the 2023 lows and it's probably now trading even below its post SVB breakdown. Do we still think that, I don't know who said this to me before but something has to break. Do we still think that banking is the way to go? You think that's gonna work, where the break is gonna happen? I mean, it's interesting how the financial sector in general really was showing signs of life here recently, right? And there was sort of this trend, as growth sort of gets more and more extended the natural thought is kind of what's next, right? What kind of steps in and takes that leadership role. People are rotating out of growth stocks like technology, where are they going? And I think you could have made an argument for financials. I think that was a legitimate one. Given the conditions, giving what was happening, if the yield curve is starting to steepen more and more this would be a better opportunity for financials but all of the ratings news that's come out has really put a damper on the sector. In the US, I mean, there are plenty of ETFs that track the banks or just look at the major banks like Citigroup, regional banks like Huntington or Key or Fifth Third these are all stocks that are rotating lower and a number of them had actually had some initial signs of life here over the last couple of months. But now all rotating lower. You mentioned Citigroup testing sort of the October 22 low currently. So I think the argument for financials here is a mean reversion argument. You're buying a sector that's beaten down that's testing lows and the question is how much worse can it get? I'm not as much a fan of that general mentality. I would much rather get interested in a space when you're seeing buyers come in or what I would say you're seeing signs of accumulation. And I think when you look at the charts of banks versus the charts of like the average energy stock, for example, there's a clear difference between a sector that is dramatically underperforming like financials and really not mounting enough of a bounce to believe in versus something like energy which is really showing signs of strength at that time. So I would much rather be focused on areas of the market that are starting to work as opposed to financials. And this shows you that when ratings take a hit it really impacts the stock price. You're seeing that certainly this week with the financial sector. Yeah, good point there. It's just occurred to me that we kind of alluded to very quickly about pre-election seasonality. We're going into stocks are typically weaker in September compared to even August. So weaker PMIs, possibly a more hawkish fed all the narratives we just spoke about. And if history suggests that this is going to be the case then do you expect more sloppiness going into September possibly even October? Yeah, and so seasonality is interesting, right? And I tend to think of it as sort of your base case, right? The seasonal trends tell you average movements and the tendencies that tend to play out which are pretty well documented and they're pretty consistent, right? I mean, there are just, there are times of the year which tend to be stronger or weaker. In a pre-election year after a midterm election year that has followed the seasonality so well I'm tending to think a lot more about the seasonal trends and focus on the reality there. In a midterm election year like 2022 usually have a weak summer into a significant bottom in October which is pretty much what we had last year and then a nice rally at your end. In a pre-election year, the first half of the year actually tends to be quite strong which we certainly have seen so far in 23. Then the second half of the year actually tends to be a lot murkier particularly after a strong August usually have a weak August and even weaker September. So the fact that we've peaked in July and now started the week in August, it's playing so brilliantly using that pre-election year playbook which you have to remember is the fourth quarter is where you usually have a nice improvement. So the average year is pretty strong going into that holiday season in a pre-election year, no different. So the idea sort of the base case that we would have a peak in the summer, June, July, a weaker August and September setting up a fall low and then a nice rally into your end I think makes a ton of sense. The challenge I would say for an equity investor is where do we actually end up? And I wouldn't be surprised if August and September pull us down a bit. I mean, S&P 4200 is kind of that the downside target that I'm focusing on for here. I don't think that's an unreasonable target given the deterioration they've seen. That'd be sort of a continuation of the move we've seen so far and maybe a parallel drop to what we've seen so far in August. But that could set us up for a really nice rally into your end. I wouldn't, I don't know if we necessarily would make new highs but I think we'd probably finish the year in a position of strength. So tactically thinking of your portfolio between now and your end I think that's a good sort of framework to consider for sure. Yeah, interesting one of the topics. You absolutely know this is gonna come up in video. Yesterday, monstrous earnings. That's how to pick up the S&P major indices. What's going on there? Do we expect certain stocks to continue to do well? Is there a correlation as well between the strength that the dollar now playing as well between moving stronger against other pairs or actually weaker? Yeah, no interesting question. In video, I mean, all eyes have been on Nvidia's earnings because really, I mean if you think about what narrative has driven the 2023 rally in the first half of the year is all about artificial intelligence and chat GPT and all of these things all of a sudden AI becomes the most important topic of all and all companies and we think about all companies are trying to demonstrate how committed they are to AI and how important it is to their business to try to be a part of that upside. And so names like Nvidia are about as a direct play into the AI crazes you can make because they're basically making the chips that fuel all of that, all of the artificial intelligence that we would be using. So an incredible rally year to date and I think the importance about earnings right now in August is because we've had such a run so far and so anytime you have a narrative like this that has driven stocks further and further to the upside at some point the risk is this sort of we wake up from the dream moment and realize, okay, now we're way higher than is reasonable. And so I think a lot of the expectation was just knowing if there's further upside besides the upside we've had so far. I mean, and Nvidia is already a triple in 2023 before earnings this week. So is there enough momentum to keep going? I think what's happened so far today is you've gapped higher to around 500 and actually traded lower. So I would say my initial reaction in the after hours yesterday pretty encouraging, good news, stronger revenues, very encouraging looking forward, stocks trading higher in the after market that all is pretty positive. What's happening so far today is actually gapping higher and trading lower, which makes me a little less excited about that because that tells me that after that gap people are super excited about cashing out of Nvidia around 500 and this is causing some downward movement. I think that's the danger for growth stocks here is you have a company like Nvidia reporting strong earnings at the surface level and you go into the details there's not a lot to be disappointed with. So it seems like it could be pretty strong. Nvidia doesn't go up much further than this. I mean, on previous earnings report it's gapped higher 10, 20, 30%. That's not what we're seeing today. We're seeing a slightly higher move and then some distribution. So I think that tells you that investors for lack of better return, I think this is a sign of buyer exhaustion that the momentum that has gotten us to this point is kind of dissipating. And unfortunately that's what causes prices to go up further from here. You have additional buyers willing to pay more and more for something. I don't know if I'm getting that feeling after Nvidia. So I think the risk for sort of that fang trade of the magnificent seven trade is even companies with stronger earnings if they're not able to materialize significant gains afterwards that tells you the conditions in the market and tells you to be concerned about again, just a bit of a retrenchment here in the third into the fourth quarter. Yeah, really interesting. I wanna shift a little bit. We spoke a bit about the gold and the commodity sector. We saw gold shockingly make further downside progress. Several reasons we already know, the dollar strength, et cetera. Now that it's starting to slightly pull back after yesterday's news, what is your overall take on gold? Do you think we'll reach that 2000 level or are we gonna trickle even more down? Yeah, it's interesting and it's frustrating for gold. I would say, again, looking back at what's happened in the last couple of years, if inflation has been such a core part of most people's thinking in terms of market strategy and the fact that something like gold has not done better in the face of raging inflation is a bit of a surprise. Now, there have been times when it's actually done quite well, right? So sort of the end of last year, first half of this year, gold was doing very well, as you mentioned, sort of testing new all-time highs, which is encouraging. But now you've seen it draw down. I think, as you mentioned, I think the stronger dollar is what's been killing that. That's what happened in 2022, sort of when gold should be a really good bet. The strong dollar and the really significantly stronger dollar sort of killed that trade. I think you're seeing a lot of that same thing here. So if you're concerned or if your take is that the dollar goes higher from here, that just limits the upside potential on something like gold until you get a bit of a change there. I think the best thing that could happen for gold, which I think is a possibility, as I mentioned from a technical perspective, I'd probably describe the dollar not as in a strong uptrend, but as in a sideways trend. And if the dollar can kind of remain range bound and sort of just be at an equilibrium state of some sort, I think that gives room for risk assets potentially, but definitely for gold to go higher, other commodities as well. So that's what I would be looking for. For now, gold is sort of testing support, right? It's pulled back in testing the June lows right now. I'd love to see a break up above the trend line using the last couple of months, which I would be a little bit higher above current levels, but I wouldn't be surprised if materials in general do better than they have. The commodity space I still think is part of a broader rotation higher, and that's one of the things that takes the place of gross stocks that I think are taking a breather here. Yeah, that's interesting. We looked into the price of WTI crude oil, that's been on the rise as well, natural gas, et cetera. So do you ever feel that in addition to those and what's going on with China, their deflation passing on to other countries that the combination of those, we're gonna be surprised moving forward by looking at the inflation numbers in the US and probably even UK. So it's a really interesting point. I think China is one of those. It's interesting how we have so much happening right now with the Fed, with inflation, with AI. China, I think in some ways has been kind of pushed away a little bit mentally for a lot of investors, but you have to remember that a lot of the commodity prices are a reflection of what's happening with the global economy. It's certainly with the expansion in China. I'm concerned when I'm reading more articles recently talking about the China economic slowdown, talking about huge infrastructure spending that now certainly would be described as excessive, I would say by most people. So I think that is a challenge, right? Basic materials are needed when you're building out a lot of things. And so if that is kind of stalling out in one of the largest economies and most growing economies in the world, I think that's a bit of a concern. The fact that China has had this run of expansive growth, if that would really continue to slow down and we would see more signs of weakness, I think that has ripple effects that a lot of investors probably are underappreciating. And that's one of those sort of, I think underappreciated themes that could be a big narrative here going forward for sure, going into your end especially. Yeah, not far away from China, I've been looking a lot into the dollar yen and this monetary policy stands that's adopted by the Bank of Japan. Now, there's many factors, but we see the strength of the dollar yen. You think that's gonna continue? You think the Bank of Japan are gonna move things around, especially that relationship that you also see between the 10 year and the dollar yen, which you see that correlation at some point. So all these factors playing in, what do you see? No, definitely. And I would say, I mean, if you're looking at the domino, I don't tend to look as much particularly at the currency crosses. I tend to think more of a dollar, more broadly speaking. And I think that's the reality is that the biggest risk for US-based investors, if you're looking at US thoughts, is the prospect of a higher dollar. In general, that hasn't tend to play well with risk assets, particularly equities here. And so I think the biggest danger would be the dollar sort of pushing to the upside from what we've seen so far. Yeah, perfect. You know, it's kind of final comments. Going back into the Jackson Hall, I think a lot of people are saying, don't be too optimistic. There is room for more tightening. I don't think the Fed is that happy. Inflation's still there, et cetera. You mentioned this at the beginning, but if you'd summarize it to the audience, what are you looking for specifically? What should we mostly focus on and filter out that noise that goes through these couple of days? Yeah, so the two big events this week, as I was looking forward, Nvidia's earnings, which we've now sort of, I think, started to digest, and then the next big meal we're gonna have to finish the week is Powell from Jackson Hall. I think, honestly, the Federal Reserve, I do not envy the role that they have to play. I mean, if you think about what they are being asked to do, it's essentially pilot the Titanic, which is this huge economy, and the control movements you make, there's such a lag between anything you do and what's actually happening to the ship. And I think that's the reality where we think that the Fed has instant contrar. We raise rates and then all these other things happen. There are ripple effects upon ripple effects that are all a huge guess, I would say, is the best way I can describe it, right? It's guesswork, it's educated guesswork, but it's still guesswork on what to happen. Besides the levers that they can pull in terms of monetary policy, it's also the PR exercise of trying to convince the world and convince investors that they're on top of things and that they were aggressive when they need to be and less aggressive when that would be the right move. So I think it's a challenge. The role of the Fed is to keep the markets functioning and to provide liquidity and provide orderly markets. And I think the challenge that they have is to bring inflation down, which is basically intentionally trying to slow things, right? They are intentionally trying to make things more expensive. They are raising rates to sort of slow down economic growth. And the reality is, do they do that too much that all of a sudden really starts to create problems, right? Because things are getting more expensive and people are spending less money and all of that. So I think the reality is it's a very difficult role. I think what they will try to communicate is that they are continuing to be data dependent. That's a phrase that they used very, very often, which is focusing on the data. As you mentioned, we've had recent data, sort of representing sort of those incremental changes in economic conditions. What we have to remember is that inflation still has not come down to the bogey, that 2% bogey that they've talked about very often. So I think the reality is there's still a gap between what they've done so far and where they want to be. And the question is, have they done enough if they just would sort of hold off and keep rate steady, do we come down? The futures market is actually pricing in potential rate hikes at the end of this year again, which is sort of a new development. That's, for a while it was, of course there aren't gonna be any future hikes and then when are rates gonna come down? What's happened now is there's actually a slight chance according to the futures market that rates actually go even higher at the end of the year. And the idea of rates coming down has actually been pushed out further and further into next year. So I think the reality is and that's why I talk about the prospect of rates remaining high. I don't hear a lot of language from the Fed talking about the light at the end of tunnel is very close and all of a sudden things are gonna get easier. I think things have gotten more expensive and what we have to remember is four to 5% on the tenure is not that high. If you look at historical averages it's actually pretty reasonable. So we're actually I think maybe getting to the new normal and the Fed can go above or below that new normal but I think it's a different regime here. So I think the Fed will try to summarize everything I just said in a nice little packed but I think their goal will probably be that we have the ability to rate high crates if needed and it'll be data dependent. I'm concerned that inflation has not come down more given all that they've done to date and I think the worry would be that there's implication of further rate hikes coming. I think that kills risk assets very, very quickly. No, I absolutely agreed. We talked about the soft landing almost very quickly or we're gonna avoid a recession. I saw it sharp today. I'll share that with you later but it basically said the last time in 2006 and 2007 where we said, oh recessionary fears are now starting to fade. People are having more optimism. We went into that recessionary phase and obviously we saw the financial crisis deep. What do you think? Yeah, it's good question. And I would say that, you know, I keep going back to the yield curve, right? I mean, if you, what I was taught a couple of years ago when I got started the industry was an inverted yield curve is not a good sign, right? And I've heard all sorts of justifications recently as to why, you know, this time is different at which I'm always super skeptical of, right? Here are the yield curves inverted but it's because of et cetera, et cetera and that's why it shouldn't be a big deal. I was taught the yield curve inverts that is a really good sign of recessionary phase where session, you know, again, it's not directly connected to the timing of a market regime. The market usually sells off in anticipation of recession and recovers at, you know, before the economic conditions start to improve. So if all we've seen, you know, if we are in that recessionary period and if the conditions really are that bad and we're setting up for that, if this is all the pain that we've seen in risk assets, I would say that would be one of the most unique recessionary periods we've ever experienced in the average recessionary period would say risk assets need to come down quite a bit more. And again, that is what's in the back of my mind as I think about this being the initial pullback within more of a drawdown phase. So if we do see strength into year end, I think looking forward into next year, looking forward into what Fed policy starts to look like, I think investors are certainly trying to price in a recovery and a soft landing and an easy exit from this. I think recessionary periods tend to be a lot longer than we probably have patience for. And I think risk assets are gonna have pressure for a while. I think it's gonna be more of a tactical environment. And I think a good approach here is to think a little more tactically and look for opportunities in the short term, look for opportunities in the derivatives markets where you have the ability to pull different levels at levers as opposed to just sort of the buy and hold strategy which may not be an ideal setup here going forward. One of my last questions to you, David, I know you're not gonna like this, but do you think the market's gonna start to lose trust in the Fed? Ooh, you're implying that there's a lot of trust in the Fed now, but they're gonna lose it, right? I don't know. I mean, I think that's debatable, right? I think the, again, the Fed is one bad headline away from feeling like they're, I don't wanna say incompetent. That's the word that comes to mind, or I guess, unable to really do what they need. What they try to reinforce and what Powell I'm sure will try to communicate is that they are very focused on the data and they are ready and able to do whatever is needed to fix things, but you're implying that they have the ability to do a certain thing now and have a particular outcome that they can predict and have no side effects that are unexpected. I think the idea that that is true is probably super unlikely. They're always gonna be sort of unintended consequences of any of these, and I think you're, we're just starting to feel that now again. I think rising rates, pushing rates higher on the short end to slow down the economy sounds like a great plan. What that is doing to small businesses, what that is doing to people's incomes, what that is doing to their ability to buy things when they would need to do so is all starting to be felt, but continues to be felt. I think as that continues to be felt and the average consumer is struggling more and more, the idea that the Fed is doing what needs to be done is probably a lot less attractive and feels a lot less optimistic. So I'm concerned to be honest with you about the stability that the Fed implies versus the reality of what they're trying to do. I think keeping inflation lower by slowing growth seems like a good approach. It has a lot of negative effects that I think we're probably underappreciating now. Yeah, I completely agree with that one. These are all the topics I have now, David. Anything we haven't covered that you think we should cover are we ready to move forward? The last thing I would, I mean, the only other thing I would say is that, I mean, the only other technical comment I would make just is the dramatic change that we've seen in leadership from growth to value. I think another way to think about are terms of breadth conditions. I think we look back in future years back to 2023. I think the good news is not that everything was easily predictable, but you're finding clear signs in September and October of 2022, some clear signs of capitulation, some signs of breadth conditions being completely bombed out, being kind of everything is going down, and then you start to see improvement. And I think you've seen the opposite of that here in June and July and into August, right? Particularly at the growth, I don't think future textbooks should look back at growth names certainly sort of getting a little bit in front of their skis a bit, and the signs that breadth conditions sort of showed of extreme optimism. Sentiment indicators like survey data being extremely bullish in June and July, and now you're starting to see a right sizing of that. For me, 2023 is reinforcing the value of paying attention to investor sentiment probably more than anything else. And so I think I'll continue to do so. Perfect, that's all I have for you today, Dave. It's always a pleasure, absolutely. And I look forward to another conversation with you. Maybe we can see how things have gone, how things have transpired, and if the market has actually completely lost trust in the Fed, we'll see in the next couple of months. I hope not. We'll see, Ricardo. Yeah, good to chat with you as always. Take care. All right, thank you, Dave. Have a good one.