 Hi, my name is Leon Roe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180.com Well, welcome to this week's a plan demand forex technical analysis if you're new welcome, and if you're returning welcome back I'm glad that you're finding my analysis of use. Thank you for your comments and kind words as well and hopefully let's Get you to a place where you can become consistent with your trading so As we do start off every week on fundamentals and sentiment analysis in this week You know, we have the US GDP growth second-quarter GDP growth Flash market PMI is durable good orders and existing in new home sales I think the GDP is going to be most important one UK CBI factory orders and distributive trade surveys and Eurozone Japan and Australia flash PMI's Produce a manufacturing index, which is basically inflation. The main one is going to be the ECB policy and Trading economics is saying that the ECB is most likely to signal monetary easing soon as In September while Turkey Central Bank is seeing cutting rates Which is very interesting because we have the Fed Which is looking to cut rates? Fed watch tool we have There's a hundred percent chance of an ease at the moment the financial institutions are factoring the needs of 0.2577.5% of them think there's gonna be 0.25% cut And this is kind of reduced from earlier in the week where this Major cut I'll say major cut but bigger cut which is 0.5. That was actually quite high As well. I think it was like 50 50 at one point but I think the the Chances of a 0.5 to 0.25 cut is is now increasing But what's interesting is that all central banks now are trying to Cheapen their currency. So you've got for example the ECB Who are looking to cheapen their currency? And this is to for inflation and also, you know to boost the economy go to Reuters European central bank marriage of your plans to restart purchases of government bonds by November to support the fragile eurozone economy You also have the Bank of Japan right who says will mull data over last minute in deciding July policy So Bank of Japan Mr. Corruda Corruda said on Thursday the central bank was grouping as economic developments until the last minute in deciding Policy this month suggesting whether to stand power increase stimulus will be a close call So you've got the European Central Bank and you've got the Bank of Japan both looking to add stimulus To that they're already, you know Monetary policy and you've got the Federal Reserve looking to cut rates in my opinion stimulus is a lot worse than cutting rates so If you are planning your Trades and how to basically capitalize off that is pretty much What I'm doing is looking for still buy trades on the dollar Guardless of what happens in the next week or two. I think the focus will be on, you know The Fed cutting rates but after that the focus is going to shift to the Bank of Japan and especially the European Central Bank so dollar is still a buyer they're in a much better position economically and From a fiscal perspective as well So if you do want to learn about some fundamental analysis have fundamental analysis course Basically shows you the relationship between gross domestic product inflation and interest rates and interest rate cycle and much much more Link is in a description box below go to all the videos and scroll through right and Understand what it is that moves the market It's not a pin bar against a level of support or resistance or supply and demand in this case There are real reasons determining value. So this is how you determine value between currencies So let's get on to now the technicals and we start off the Dow Jones dollar index So the Dow Jones dollar index from last week price did come up Come down into this zone and the Dow Jones dollar index is just a measure an index of the Dollar strength versus the major currencies like the euro the pound and the yen. I think the Australian dollar as well so We use this as kind of like confluence overall confluence and overall, you know dollar strength when we're trading any of the Dollar crosses. So this week or last week, I should say prices, you know bounced off of That demand zone came down into the deeper end and then a bit of Buying as well. So there were some definite buying opportunities on the dollar crosses this week I'm sure some of you took advantage of that We've come down into this demand zone here and again what we do is we just look for bullish price action on the Dow Jones dollar index and Look for that as confluence. So Into this week, I think what's gonna happen? I don't necessarily like predictions. I don't do predictions. I just Wait for prices to do what they do and then plan around there So it's more of a if prices come down here, then I'm going to look for buying opportunities on the dollar. So What I'm looking for in the lead up to You know, it's the end of the month July Which we have the Fed watch tool right here. So count down for 10 days I probably expect the dollar to become a bit weaker Maybe chop around a little bit if not come down back and down into that zone and look for, you know To strengthen or potentially come down into this sun Right either way. I think the rate cut is gonna have some probably short-term negative sentiment and weaken the dollar But overall, I think the dollar is still the the buy out of many of the currency pairs, especially the euro and the yen So pretty much looking for that at the moment if you're looking for a Some sell trades on the dollar I think you've got quite a wide Supply zone you've got lower highs lower lows so The charts is gonna look a bit bit messy But what you've got in a situation like this What you've got to do is when you get a supplies and supplies on from lower highs and lower lows What we're gonna do is separate them by Determining the supply and demand equation So supply and demand equation if you don't know is basically just looking for Horizontal diagonal and dynamic support resistance within these areas Because that's where other traders are going to be looking at as well All right I were taking profit or entering new trades within those areas of supply and demand and supply and demand really is a value Right is understanding proof of value. All right This was obviously proven to be an expensive area for the dollar hence prices went created new nose So prices come back up to here and you want to be short Then you're looking at short trades within this whole area of you know supply and all supply zones are You know made the same And this is how we separate You know larger areas of supply within this area. So there'll be another area Right here where you'd be looking for so value and we've got to plan them on the equation If you want to know a bit more, there's a video called Supply and demand order flow equation do a search for that and Show you exactly how in this video how to apply horizontal dynamic and diagonal support resistance to areas of demand and supply so This is what it looks like if you want to get short If you're looking for long trades what you're looking for is probably a bit of a pullback or any kind of bullish price action as we go into the week And look for just that confluence when we are trading any of the dollar pairs now moving on to The dollar yen It's a dollar yen from last week What we had was bit of a bounce Right and prices have now come back down into This was where the original area was to get long We had a little bit of a bounce there And then prices have come down and I think again, this is where I want to be a buyer especially around this round number one 107.0 Right here prices can come down this week and then I can get to be a buyer This would be a absolute bargain as was proven in a past that this was a bargain Because the dollar rallied from there So going on to dollar yen I've taken all taken away that that demand zone that was there anyway, so now it looks like What I'll be looking for is some Buy trades at the moment prices can kind of retrace a little bit Into this week and then look for buy trades to position myself if you're looking to Sell and then you've got supply zone there You've got another supply zone right there and again you can apply the supply and demand equation Right here where you've got support Resistance support there support support. So if you are looking to sell this is where you'd be looking to get short Yeah, right in this 108 on the underside of that Supply zone if you're looking at you'd really be buying the Japanese yen based off of risk risk off sentiment And it tends to be some risk off sentiment. We've already kind of bounced off it on the lower time frame. You can see that wick there And this is due to if you go to someone at Bloomberg we've got Iran seizing British oil tanker in far Fars news tweet and if you go to Reuters as well, I think the headlines are UK call seizure of ship a hostile act. So risk off tends to Strengthen the dollar yen So what you want to do is just keep being mindful when buying dollar at the moment As there is some risk off environment, but I will be definitely looking at buy trades around the Lowe's Moving on to the Dollar Swiss and the dollar Swiss Again the dollar did rally a little bit from here from last week nice little pinball there Definite, you know two to one type trade and then it's kind of sold off right here So Now what we're looking at is is I would say delete that and Got a few supply zones right here and demand zone down there, so I think Looking for is going to put a pullback into this level. I like this as well Gonna be a buyer of the dollar Swiss So I'm just waiting for any kind of pullbacks into that area there if you're looking at sell trades You'll be looking at Actually in fact Track that down to here. That's where It's the underside of that supply zone is as you've made lower highs lower lows, so you've got probably around Here and again if you're looking at Understanding where other traders looking to get in as well that area right there underside of that would be Decent area to look for any short trades again risk off Swiss Frank benefits So we could see prices start to drift lower, especially into the The rate cut would be a buyer the rumors sell the fact type situation But again, I'm still gonna be long dollars overall We've got dollar CAD next and And Again, we kind of just End up guys sideways last week zoom in a little bit up and down up and down and So Again, I think the CAD Last week had didn't have a great Data release at all. I think if you go back to forex factory and we look at last week I think CPI was was really poor for the CAD. Yeah CPI was minus minus two even though it's green It's definitely not the greatest number in the world inflation wise and Also, there was I think the CAD had another Data release I'm looking for Cad get core retail sales on the Friday, which again was minus zero point three. So Not very not very good for the CAD, but the CAD may may rally Temporarily and go shorter based off of oil concerns oil supply concerns And with the you know the Iran British Few that's going on at the moment. So you potentially could see some Strength coming into the CAD and then come down to this one point threes Zero level the CAD is highly correlated to oil But the CAD overall as a country and their economy isn't doing great at all So again on this pair, I'll be looking for potential buy trades But just waiting for technical setups down into either that zone right there or down into this lower zone If we can get here, I think the CAD is the dollar will be very Undervalued especially if it the lower it goes if you are looking at some Buy trades for the CAD you would have a price to really come back up into the supply zone looking for that area there or You'll be looking for another supply zone right here Looking for short trades there Next is the New Zealand dollar US dollar and New Zealand dollar has been there's been done very well It's weak and again positive data coming out for the New Zealand dollar CPI coming out at zero point six as expected so you know ticking over for the New Zealand dollar and We've seen prices come up to this area of supply Kind of you know hold there for a little bit and then come up to this now area of supply potentially so With the New Zealand dollar being actually quite strong. I'll put it more neutral on this pair Let's go to charts And update this slightly so if you are looking to buy the Actually, let's add in some more zones. I'll probably say now It's going to stretch up to here and then you've got a bit of a zone Right here higher ends Delete this we've got some demand Right here again proof of value Right where price is making higher highs higher lows It's definitely demand there. So if you are looking at trading and buying the CAD So at the buying the New Zealand dollar, then you'd be looking at a move down Move down like this before looking at buy trades. If you are looking to get short I think pretty much now I'm gonna say it put it around this round number as well The zero point six eight round number is will be very interesting to see what happens But you've got two pretty decent currencies competing against each other so It's this is probably more of a difficult read at the moment when it comes to Supply and demand I think again New Zealand dollars should probably strengthen on dollar weakness But the New Zealand dollar the RBNZ which is their central bank was a bank of New Zealand will be also looking to cut rates as well as a They're also concerned about global growth and they're going to be getting ahead of an expensive expensive New Zealand dollar, which isn't great for their economy. So I Think once the focus is off the Fed cut, then they should want to turn around Looking at the pound dollar And the pound dollar Nice trade we got this week off of this supply zone right here Right prices came in put in a nice entry candle and then sold off That's two to one trade and lower time frame And now we're getting we're getting our prices come back up into this area here now We have to bear in mind is that This has now created a bit of a Supply zone right here But you've got one touch here. This is the second touch that second touches are normally okay But not as good as first touches of levels so again in the in the weeks leading up to the next 10 days leading up to The the Fed Rick up potentially we could see prices drift a bit higher up into, you know, this zone right here Also as well no deal has been taken off at the table Parliament voted will to stop But any future Prime Minister especially Boris Johnson from taking from actually enacting parochial parliament Basically taking the no deal I know do option off the table. So that's what you know Made the British pound rally The more that the British pound is going to be entering into some sort of deal with the more with the euro Especially, you know around Brexit The more positive you're going to get sentiment-wise on the pound so Pound-rallyed a little bit and I probably expect prices to kind of you know rally especially into the the rate cut And then I'll be looking at some short trades potentially a bit higher up But if you want to get short even now or into that area if you want to get long then I would say Probably waiting for prices to really kind of pull back to this one to four level before looking at long trades like that Which is a decent long looking at the Euro dollar in the Euro dollar last week Again came up to this area here and then there was a nice shorting opportunity In this I didn't get involved in that The risk reward for me wasn't wasn't great. So Didn't manage to get into this short prices came up and then came down I think prices will weaken off Eventually, and this is due to the European Central Bank adding stimulus potentially adding stimulus in September so We go to the chart and update that Bit of a sideways movement this demand zone You're going to buy the euro has been touched once twice the more times the level is touched the weaker it becomes so Maybe you might want to double-think About Basically buying at this zone here. You probably maybe want to look for By trade there if you are looking to buy the euro if you're looking to sell The euro and buy the dollar you'd really be waiting for price to come and kind of come back up into this fresher area of supply before looking at You know sell trades especially about that one point one three round number I'm looking to be a buyer of the dollar up here If prices can get around here if not even better will be that area there Looking at the euro yen Last week we're in in a bit of a range between the low and the high again prices have drifted down on rumors of a More stimulus QE 2.0 So we're down into this demand zone now the question you have to ask yourself is why is the euro a buy here? Why is it you know cheap and a bargain at this price? Personally, I can't really see it, but also you also have to again the Japanese yen You know in the Bank of Japan looking to add stimulus. So it's a bit of a difficult read at the moment And if you go to the chart Potentially what we could see is prices kind of rally from here as You're as the trader Bank of Japan will be the first to kind of announce their stimulus Right in at the end of July as well. So you could see prices on the euro rally and Basically come back up into this supply zone Before Reversing around here. All right, if not around here Yeah, also as well keeping in mind that Japanese yen may strengthen based off of you know oil tank attentions between you know, the the US Britain and Iran so This is also a factor in the yen strengthening some risk off coming into the market Moving on to Aussie dollar the Aussie dollar. I want to get short on this pair What we had this week is Level come up shorting opportunity Right here, and then we've got this large candle and I think this is probably about to roll over soon Yeah, so the Australian dollar isn't isn't doing fantastic either So at the moment what we've got is a level and traders in the group My mentoring group trading 180 we we're looking for a nice little setup here It's what we call a stop hunt setup where prices You know, we're looking for a bit of price action right there And then prices to kind of fall away and there's a way to enter based off of stop hunting right here So looking at that area For a nice short trade if you are looking at long trades And that's going to be your demand zone right here looking at getting short right now isn't a bad idea either potentially If you're looking at lower time frames looking at you know potential short trades, but looking for some sort of Stop hunt setup right here within this supply zone on a higher time frame Which is going to be if you see it then looking to get short on this By the way black rock who manage I think it's something like six trillion worth of Dollars basically Fund hedge fund. I think the biggest fund in the world They are also short on this currency pair and they see overall targets at around 65 in the in the medium term so with Black rock also looking to get short Right on this currency pair. This is going to be just the first opportunity of prices, you know come up to here Then this is even better An even better opportunity for us to look for some short trades on this currency pair as again an expensive Dollar and I told my Aussie dollar is actually problematic for the As the Australian central bank they cut rates. I think it was here. I was it down here I think it was on the night for July they cut rates now You're seeing prices all the way up here. Their intention was for the Australian dollar to actually get weaker right so Shorts all the way for me But if you are looking that you know longs and can change continuation Then this is going to be the first area to look for long trades here And then you can look for some putting some more long trades right there. You've got a bit of a Level right there as well. So if you look for see a long trades within those demand zones and Finally we have the Aussie Yen and Aussie yen You've kind of been drifting sideways from last week You know risk being less off I think I think risk on is probably gonna end up coming back into the market seeing a nice, you know nice little pin bars here So potential for some short trades right now Aussie Aussie yen If you're looking to get short based off of risk off environment now, it's pretty much the time or if you're looking for You know, maybe better price price is just slightly up here before looking at short trades Even here would be be a lot better If you're looking at long trades Probably say that's a bit of a demand zone right here And you'd be looking for price to come down into this demand zone before looking at getting Long again risk would have to be really on and risk on basically meaning that Everything is sorted out with you know any kind of tensions and drama in the world any Uncertainty right because the Australian dollar will benefit from a risk on environment and again benefits from a risk-off environment as well as you know currencies like gold Swiss franc and commodities like gold, etc. So if you see gold start selling off Then you may want to start to look to buy the Australian Dollar right So that's it for this week Hope you enjoyed the analysis if you have any questions Definitely post them in the comment section below. Don't forget to like subscribe share as well and Until next week in the next video take care and have a great trading week