 Hey everybody, what's going on? I am Greg Sosman, joined today by Jim Sinus of Fandall, who's here to help me break down the value plays from week one in DFS. Jim, what's happening? It's all good here, Greg. First of all, it's week one. How can you not be excited about that? But also because it's week one, we've actually got some good value plays here. You know, guys, maybe undervalued entry in the season. Guys who were in different roles than they were when salaries came out. So it's a pretty good week to talk values. I am excited for this slate. How are you doing? I'm feeling great, man. I'm excited. Week one begins tonight. Bears and Packers. And we'll hear from Gabe Morenze a little bit later on on who he likes in that one. But let's take a look at that full slate on Sunday, the full roster, and try to find some of the value plays. And let's start at the quarterback spot. And you previewed it yesterday, Jim, with your stacks. And now we get to our value. And that's because Nick Foles is priced under $7,000 as a quarterback. Why do you love Foles this weekend? Yeah, I think they're just a lot of things working in Foles' favor for week number one. The first one is that I expect this offense to be a lot better in 2019 than it was in 2018, in part because Foles is there, but also because their offensive line is now healthy, which they very much were not from week two on last year. So that's a plus for them. And now, John DeFilippos in town. And DeFilippo got fired from the Vikings because he wanted to throw too often. And he did throw often with that team specifically on first down. The Jaguars did not do that in the first half. They ranked 30th in pass rate on first down in the first half last year per sharp football stats. So that's going to go up, which is good for Nick Foles. It's also good for Leonard Fournette. And this entire offense, if they're going to more efficient because they're throwing the ball more often. I like that a lot, but also this Chief's defense is one we can exploit, especially when they're on the road. They did gain Frank Clark and they also did gain Tyron Matthew, but you're taking them out of KC. And I think the Chiefs have one of the best home field advantages in football, but putting them on the road in Jacksonville is something that does bode well for this Jaguars offense. So I think that Nick Foles just has a lot going for him this week in a game with the highest total on the main slate. And it's also a tight spread. That's a lot of things to like for Nick Foles. I think that Matthew Stafford is also intriguing at $6,600. He's also in a pace of spot against a bad defense. But between these two guys, I do prefer Foles going up against his Chiefs defense week one. Should be a fun one in Jacksonville. And that is Nick Foles' debut, priced at a really good spot. Let's see him come through. Remember, given his price is so low, he doesn't have to do what some of these higher priced quarterbacks do. But if he gets on a run, he's gonna outperform his number and that gets you off to a fantastic start in week one. Let's continue talking about the value plays, Jim, and that brings us to somebody else we talked about yesterday in Seattle with Chris Carson in the running game. We know how great it is or it's supposed to be and just how often they're gonna run it. What Chris Carson does is not just run the ball as it makes him so exciting, especially at $6,600. Yeah, I think the general philosophy of running back is to accept cheap volume where you can find and that's exactly what you get with Chris Carson. Given it seems like he's pretty far ahead of Rashad Penny on this depth chart, which bodes well for him as a rusher. But also, as you mentioned, it's not just rushing. It also sounds like Brian Schottenheimer actually wants to get Chris Carson the football as a receiver this year as well. And a target is worth twice as much as a carry and half PPR scoring settings like fan duels, which means that Chris Carson's value could be huge this year if they do decide to follow through in that edict and give him a lot of targets. So I like that for Chris Carson, but also this game script is perfect. They're facing the Bengals as 10 point home favorites. They want to run the football. They should be able to do so here. So Chris Carson honestly does check every box. I want to run him back who will get almost all the carries in his offense. I want him to get some targets as well and I want him to win that football game and Carson should do all those things here in a great matchup with the Bengals. So I really think that Chris Carson is one of the better cash game players on the board at running back. And he also has the upside that we want for tournaments. So Chris Carson is a guy who's going to be hard to stay away from in week one. Chris Carson, definitely someone you want to get in your lineup week one, obviously at this price. But I also think all season long, Carson's going to eat for Seattle, especially in that Brian Schottenheimer offense. Love Chris Carson this week, especially at this price. Another undervalued player here this week. It's Austin Echler for the Chargers. Melvin Gordon's not showing up. And Echler, a starting running back is priced at $6,400. Now we don't know exactly what the split will be between Echler and Justin Jackson. Why do you like Echler at this number? Yeah, it's hard to know definitively what this share will be between these two guys. But the good thing is we did give three games last year where Melvin Gordon did not play and Austin Echler and Justin Jackson both did. And in those three games, Echler had 79% of the snaps. The average 13 carries and 6.7 targets per game. And those 6.7 targets come with a lot of value for a guy who is as good as Austin Echler. But I think you could also say reasonably that Jackson heading into a second year may get a larger piece of the pie this time around. So let's take a look at the minimum values for Echler in those three games. He played 68% of the snaps in all three. He had at least 12 carries in all three and at least five targets. If you guarantee me 12 carries and five targets for someone like Austin Echler in this game against a below average Colts defense, I'm gonna take that every time because he's an electric player who can do a lot with those targets. There's no Russell O'Coon for this week for the Chargers. That is a major downgrade. And I think that that could push you to bet the under in this game, but we're not looking for efficiency out of Austin Echler. We just want volume and he should get that. He should get that in the most relevant category, which is targets. So Austin Echler is a guy who will get work in the passing game. He'll generally be efficient when he does get that work and he should get a good number of carries as well. He is a home favorite. So even though the offensive line is a major question mark for the Chargers, I still think Echler makes a lot of sense. $6,400, way too cheap for someone who's going to get as much work as in the passing game as Echler could get. Absolutely, a PPR type of player, Echler with Ken Wisinhunt calling the plays. I don't think it's gonna come off the field as much as people think. I believe that the Chargers believe that Austin Echler is their top back, both on third downs and on early downwork. I think you'll see Phillip Rivers utilizing him a lot. I like Austin Echler as a smart play here this weekend. Let's move to another position, Jim, and that brings us to the wide receivers. And one name that has been screaming up draft boards as of late has been Dallas's Michael Gallup. This week Gallup is priced at $5,600. The Marri Cooper is not 100%. Facing a soft giant secondary and the only good player there is Janoris Jenkins, he'll be on Cooper, leaving Michael Gallup to go wild, $5,600. You gotta like it. Yeah, everything you mentioned there is awesome and it lines up really well for Michael Gallup, but also he actually got a good amount of volume last year. Even when Cooper was there, Michael Gallup, as you recall, had a lot of empty targets, but he got a lot of deep targets and you don't need a lot of deep targets to hit in order for a player to pay off, especially when they are as cheap as Michael Gallup. He is $5,600 after Cooper joined the team last year. Gallup still got 36% of the team's targets, 16 or more yards downfield, which is a very big number. He had multiple deep targets in four games. Again, that's only after Cooper joined this team. So even though we have a Marri Cooper there, Zeke Elliott is also there too. I would still expect Michael Gallup to get a lot of volume in this team's passing offense. Additionally, this offense was killer. When it was at home last year with a Marri Cooper, Dak Prescott specifically balled out in those games. And as you said, there's not a lot of talent left on this giant's defense. Landon Collins gone, Olivia Vernon is also gone. That bodes well for the Dallas Cowboys. I think that, you know, you don't wanna mess with the Michael, with the Zeke Elliott situation, given his potential pitch count there. Don't want to mess with the Marri Cooper when he's banged up and facing to Norris Jenkins, but you can use Dak Prescott as your quarterback and you can pair with Michael Gallup and save quite a bit of salary. I like this Cowboys offense in general with Kellen Clemens, with Kellen Moore calling the plays. I think that that sets up well for them. And I think that Michael Gallup is a good way to get exposure at just $5,600 a week one. Definitely wants some Michael Gallup this week, facing this off secondary. And for all the reasons that Jim mentioned, the biggest reason of course, it's a price. It's just too cheap for a starting wide receiver that has the ability to score a couple touchdowns that I think is exactly what Gallup has. I like Michael Gallup. I want a couple shares. Get him in your lineup. One more wide receiver to get to Jim and that brings us to John Brown of the Bills. He's priced at $5,500 even cheaper than Michael Gallup. And he's a starting wide receiver, not just that. He may be the number one wide receiver here. Josh Allen, we know what he can do with his legs. Can he be successful with his arm as well? Probably not, because it's Josh Allen. But he doesn't have to be that successful. We saw last year with Robert Foster, what a player like John Brown can do within this offense. He doesn't need to hit a lot. He just needs to hit once or twice and John Brown can blow up. John Brown was a good fantasy football player last year before Lamar Jackson became the quarterback down in Baltimore. Now he was up to Buffalo and plays with a guy who wants to launch it, wants to get a little de-gaff out there. And we know Josh Allen will do that. And this week he's facing a bad secondary that the Jets have. This Jets defense could be pretty tough, not good this year. And that bodes well for this Bills offense. And week number one, we know how talented John Brown is. And he just fits so well with this Bills offense. Robert Foster was a guy who was a DFS stud at times last year. And now John Brown steps into that role as the field stretcher within this offense. It's not gonna be Zay Jones or Cole Beasley. It's going to be John Brown and he should be able to get open against this Jets secondary. So I like John Brown a lot. I think that for $5,500, he has pretty monster upside. I also do expect this game to be maybe a little bit higher score in the next expectation, partly because of the Jets defense, but also because I expect this Jets offense to work faster than the expectation. The total on this game is gone from 38 and a half up to 40 and a half. I think that's very justifiable. So I think you can get some small game stacks in here with Levy on Bell on one side and John Brown on the other and take advantage of a game that could be higher scoring than Perception, but John Brown a big part of that for $5,500. Perception versus reality here. You look at these two teams, you think good solid defenses, low scoring game, number keeps going up. And that's why you want to look to this game for some value. And that's what you get when you look at John Brown's way, just $5,500. You may wind up being Josh Allen's favorite receiver. Don't really know what that's gonna mean, but it's possible. And for this weekend, it could mean a lot. John Brown at this price is worth getting in there. One last player to get to and it's our tight end this week and he's priced at under $5,000. It's a Rams tight end. Only problem Jim is it's not the one that just got in the contract extension. Why Everett over Higbee? Yeah, it's not even the guy who played the most snaps last year because that was pretty consistently Tyler Higbee as well, but what we saw last year throughout the season was Gerald Everett's role expanding, especially in the playoffs when they needed a guy to catch passes. It was Gerald Everett on whom they lean the most because in the NSC championship game in the Super Bowl, Gerald Everett's snap rate was 68%. Now, Robert Mays, the ringer has been at Rams training camp and he said while he was there, it looked as if the Rams are gonna play more two tight end sets, which means that the snap rate for Everett should be steadier and you can build on those gains that he had last year. It's easy to forget that Everett was a second round pick the year after they took Higbee and it seems like he is really rounding into form. Again, he played a lot of snaps last year. He's in a game that I expect to be pretty high scoring. He's just $4,900. There are a lot of reasons not to like Gerald Everett's but there are also a good number of reasons to like him especially in a game that I would expect to be pretty high scoring on Sunday. Now in that same game, Greg Olsen is $5,200 and also I think in a team where he'll have less competition for targets potentially should be the number four guy there behind DJ Morker to Samuel and Christian McCaffery. I think there is a very good case to be made to go with Greg Olsen but I also would not expect Gerald Everett to get a lot of love and I think that his role this year should be better than what it was during the regular season last year based on what he did in the playoffs in 2018. So Gerald Everett, a guy generally I'm buying for this year. I think that it makes sense to get in on him on a game I feel is pretty attractive for week one. I think it's gonna be high scoring in week one as well. Gerald Everett doesn't cost that much. We may not do that much. The risk versus the reward. If you play the value play in Everett here hopefully you can get some of the bigger names into your lineup potentially in this game as well. Be cautious putting in Gerald Everett, brush your fingers and maybe he'll wind up with a touchdown. That's gonna do it for us here on the fan. Don't hurry up. We got a game tonight, Jim. Yeah, Packers Bears. I think it's a super fun game. We're gonna learn a lot about both these teams. We'll get to see your boy MVS out there on the field. So it should be a lot of fun looking forward to and just seeing real football in the field once again. Absolutely real football has arrived. For Jim Sannis, I am Greg Sussman. Have an awesome night. We'll see you back here tomorrow as we preview every single game from this weekend. It should be fun.